@@SlavElenkov if inflation keeps dropping, which the data looks like it will. the fed will stop raising interest rates or even start to lower the rates, that will spur the economy which is the complete opposite of a recession. Also the money and projects from the Infrastructure Bill will start kicking in by then end of the year and create even more jobs. Jobs= strong consumer = strong economy
I agree 💯. Usually the market does the opposite of what everyone is saying/expecting. And they're all currently saying recession cancelled. The beginning of the year at market lows everybody and they mama wuz saying SELL!!! The mother of all recessions incoming! Then stocks immediately jumped 30%
I'm fairly certain there will be a recession sometime in the next ten years. Until then, I will be trying to find companies that are currently trading at or below 50% of their intrinsic value to invest in as part of a diversified portfolio.
@@SlavElenkov Howard Marks has some pretty interesting things to say about macroeconomic predictions: essentially that they are pointless. For example, in the later half of last year I was certain that we would be in a recession by now. Instead, we have had an AI -driven rally and the Nasdaq has had its best first half year in history. There is zero possibility that anyone could have predicted that 12 months ago.
@@thatplantguysome people predicted it. there are plenty of people that believe the economic trajectory is still intact and positive for the foreseeable future. but anyway, i wouldn’t say that history has nothing to teach us - even in a difficult field such as macro. also, a man even as intelligent as Howard can also be wrong. but i appreciate the sentiment. the best long term investor of all time bases his investments with zero input from macro economics, so there is certainly a strong case in your favor from multiple angles. i just don’t think the argument is as absolute and as solid as you make it out to be.
@@SlavElenkov I see your points and I respect where you are coming from. I really hope there is a recession to provide entry points for currently overvalued stocks.
What am I missing guys? What's your opinion here?
You're missing insight
@@alexnhan8527what insight could you offer me? i’m here to learn
@@SlavElenkov if inflation keeps dropping, which the data looks like it will. the fed will stop raising interest rates or even start to lower the rates, that will spur the economy which is the complete opposite of a recession. Also the money and projects from the Infrastructure Bill will start kicking in by then end of the year and create even more jobs. Jobs= strong consumer = strong economy
@@alexnhan8527lets hope you are right 👍
@@SlavElenkov look at the private jobs report today
In Australia we are in a recession yet as usual the Government won't admit it yet. Consumer Discretion spending is down. Its only a matter of time.
I agree 💯. Usually the market does the opposite of what everyone is saying/expecting. And they're all currently saying recession cancelled. The beginning of the year at market lows everybody and they mama wuz saying SELL!!! The mother of all recessions incoming! Then stocks immediately jumped 30%
I'm fairly certain there will be a recession sometime in the next ten years. Until then, I will be trying to find companies that are currently trading at or below 50% of their intrinsic value to invest in as part of a diversified portfolio.
solid plan
@@SlavElenkov Howard Marks has some pretty interesting things to say about macroeconomic predictions: essentially that they are pointless. For example, in the later half of last year I was certain that we would be in a recession by now. Instead, we have had an AI -driven rally and the Nasdaq has had its best first half year in history. There is zero possibility that anyone could have predicted that 12 months ago.
@@thatplantguysome people predicted it. there are plenty of people that believe the economic trajectory is still intact and positive for the foreseeable future.
but anyway, i wouldn’t say that history has nothing to teach us - even in a difficult field such as macro.
also, a man even as intelligent as Howard can also be wrong. but i appreciate the sentiment. the best long term investor of all time bases his investments with zero input from macro economics, so there is certainly a strong case in your favor from multiple angles. i just don’t think the argument is as absolute and as solid as you make it out to be.
@@SlavElenkov I see your points and I respect where you are coming from. I really hope there is a recession to provide entry points for currently overvalued stocks.
Why must you talk away from the mic
what do you mean?