I find this whole situation we find ourselves in hilarious - it's as if we are all at the back of the bus screaming as we head towards the cliff edge and it's not as if the brakes don't work but the driver is a vision impaired maniac who not only can't the edge but believes it doesn't exist.
What's hilarious is that the people all screaming at the back of the bus are climate zealots, even though the bus keeps on driving uninterrupted and with everybody aboard nice and safe. But heck, they just keep shrieking.
@@anthonymorris5084nice and safe? Record deaths from heat waves already. Not to mention hundreds of millions of climate refugees, coming to a decade near you
You think the brakes *work?* Do you have any idea what happens if we put on the brakes? Our world runs on oil. There's a reason nothing has been done. Who is willing to kill millions now for the possibility of saving billions later? Nobody who holds an elected office. The truth sucks. The reality is humanities fate is sealed. We are an extinct species walking. Not many, if any, humans will see the year 2100.
@@SigFigNewton There is zero evidence for your claim. Data proves that the cold kills vastly more people than the heat. People who die from heat are impoverished people proving that poverty is the issue not warming. Poverty is also vastly easier to remedy and a far more realistic goal than preventing the planet from warming which is impossible. There has never been a "climate refugee", ever. People have been fleeing poverty, violence and oppression for centuries. 25% of the Netherlands already sits below sea level. The Dutch aren't dying, drowning, fleeing or becoming climate refugees, Why? Because they live in a modern prosperous nation. In the 1970's 250,000 people died in cyclical flooding in Bangladesh when 25% of the nation flooded, why? Poverty. Death tolls from natural disasters including *every single climate related disaster* have been in precipitous decline for a hundred years, all due to the modern world and wealth creation that keeps us safe.
Good but brief talk by Stefan Rahmstorf. He really had to crash through the material due to the short time he had. Better and more understandable versions of his talk are available on RUclips which really bring home the enormity of what is/could happen if the AMOC stops. A very important subject. Thanks Stefan.
They are waiting until it happens, and nothing can be done, to react and try to prevent it. Such is the logic of short-term governance, public opinion primacy, and false equivalencies between siloized policy ‘trade-offs’. If the biosphere and climate are not prioritized above all else, national states are merely fleeting self-terminating projects within a humanity whose future will be consumed by desperate struggles for survival.
Brilliant and true but they can't say this for fear of widespread panic and accusations of scaremongering. It's about time the truth of the catastrophe we are now entering is made clear to all humanity
@@graemeguy341 What catastrophe? Over the last 44 years how has your life been in peril? What threats have you faced? How has your life been compromised? What danger are you in? Hyperbolic nonsense.
@@anthonymorris5084I think you’ve hit the nail on the head here. The real problem is the Human Brain Paradox. We evolved to only respond to physical threats when they are unambiguously imminent. I’m sure this helped us survive in our early evolution, not wasting energy on threats that may not affect us. We evolved big clever brains that are great at solving immediate problems. Our big brains have allowed us to create technology (agriculture, medicine, shelters) to avoid the clear and present threats of the environment (starvation, thirst, disease, predation). Thus we have become insulated us from the environment around us. Being removed from everyday environmental threats has created surplus energy for us as individuals and societies and that has led to our vast array of innovations: music, art, maths, technology. But our technology innovations include 2 opposing types: Type1. the ability to release millennia of stored energy into the world in under 200years which has fundamentally changed the very environment features (rainfall, temperature, weather patterns) our survival technologies (agriculture, fisheries, water management, cities) are based on. Type 2. the ability to identify, measure and extrapolate the cause and meaning of changes in our environment, recognize their impact on our survival technologies and identify ways to fix the problem. So despite being fully aware of what we are doing to ourselves and knowing how to fix it, as a species we are incapable of responding to this future threat because it doesn’t yet feel real and present and unambiguous. Of course the catch is that our ancient instinct to wait and see won’t work in the case of climate change because by the time our pants are on fire it will be too late to put the fire out. You couldn’t design a better trap for Homo Sapiens if you tried. We’ve caught ourselves in our own trap. I always think it ironic and somewhat hubristic that the moniker we assigned to ourselves “Homo Sapiens” means Wise Human. We’re not wise, we’re cunning. And cunning only gets you so far.
1.5 degrees Celsius is years behind us, and a rise of 3 degrees+ is what the future holds... The tipping point for the AMOC shutdown has also passed us by. Sadly, it's in the nature of tipping points that "we" don't even notice them until they are passed and conditions within the system are rapidly shifting to a completely different state of being. A total AMOC shutdown is both inevitable and irreversible, and could happen at any time, given the ever increasing volume of meltwater coming from the Greenland icecaps increasingly rapid meltdown; growing that "cold blob" bigger by the day... We're certainly going to be living through some "interesting times", from here on out. Our extinction is basically looming on the horizon this very day... Every day I grieve, for a while. Then get back into "acceptance", and living in the moment. Keeping life really simple...
This is pure hyperbole. A tipping point simply represents temporary or permanent change to the environment. The climate movement has dishonestly and deliberately conflated "tipping points" with catastrophe, for the purpose of spreading fear. There isn't a credible scientist on this planet predicting human extinction. Get a grip.
@@bettysue8671 It's not certain, but I have heard it's closer to 4 degrees and that applies to advanced multi-cellular life. Bacteria and fungi (for a while) could persist.
The fact they keep referencing the vague "pre-industrial baseline" instead of a set value, and the *fact* they have changed the value of that baseline makes the guidance worthless. As you say, we are already fucked. Humanity is an extinct species that just doesn't know it yet. We are more like the White Rhino than we care to realize...
It's like: sitting on the titanic and make plans for the arrival at NY. I'm sitting in a first class deckchair, counting my money and make plans. It's cold and dark and at the horizon I see Icebergs. But I am buzzy, because I am counting my money and making a plan. My kids are fine, they are sleeping. All four of them. At the Titanic.
The musicians who didn't stop playing the music are very psychotic in the room. They wanted to calm people down, but the half-full and almost empty lifeboats show that their help would have been needed somewhere else.
The movie 'Don't Look Up' is becoming increasingly real. Including a future president who is not trustworthy, biased, crazy, and most importantly, a hardcore fascist. There is no escape anymore, get used to it.
I just literally thought this, yesterday! I was like wtf, everyone is actively ignoring that we are literally going to die. Not in our kids lifetime or their kids... our lifetime. Like now. Not in 2030. Not in 100 years. We have 2 years maybe 2. Which is crazy bc Mo Gawdt, former Google tech operating director, stated it with AI yet then I saw the UN made a speech stating we had 2 years to save the world, quote on quote. They meant literally... and, I'm starting to see the exponential growth in which we can't survive once the ball starts rolling... Crazy thing is, with my experience with Death (I've nearly died 15 xs) YOU DONT REALIZE YOU'RE DYING WHEN UR DYING. I know, it sounds odd, but it just gets Twilight Zone and there are only subliminals that show you're crossing over... I feel things are getting wacky enough to make me question if humanity as a whole is crossing Over.
@@bettysue8671 Thanks for your response. I recognize the desperation in your words, and I can't help you. I hope you've had a good and maybe even a long life. I'm 68 and I'm glad I am. I don't have children; I've never needed my driver's license, and I don't have to start over. I can't imagine starting a family, taking a final exam, or having to work endlessly for years to come. Not only that, but I do miss the peace of long ago, the butterflies in the garden, the moon without people on it, and a rustling newspaper instead of the sliding on an iPad. I see a lost world that makes me cry, which I'm partly to blame for, and I really want those missing mosquitoes back on my ceiling. The ones that used to keep me awake during the summer. All the best from the Netherlands.
@@trstquint7114 68? Then you lived through the threat of nuclear Armageddon that never happened. You lived through the 1950's erroneous claim of reaching peak oil. You lived through the 1973 energy "crisis" that never materialized. You lived through the threat of the impending ice age during the 1970's. You were around when they told us we were all going to perish from starvation by the 1980's because of rising populations. You lived through Y2K. Have you learned nothing?
This is a scare story about things you cannot see. To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC." Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation. Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2. MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021) The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv. "Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years. There is no climate crisis. The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations. The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? These models can't even replicate one of the key physical processes, Convection, in ocean currents "because convection is a small-scale process, it is not captured well in most current models (Jackson et al (2023)" (Rahmstorf, 2024). So they can't model Convection. So they can't model ocean currents. Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two. Also the 'Cold Blob' has disappeared from North Atlantic surface temperatures, when annual anomalies for 2013-2023 are compared to the average for the period 1979-2010 (ECMWF ERA5). The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) shows a Sea Surface Temperature departure of over +2°C exactly where the Cold Blob used to be. It may have been there but it's gone. Looking more carefully using NOAA ERSST V5 data for North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (50N-65N, 50W-10W) shows in 1942 a +1°C anomaly declining to -0.7°C in 1992 then rising to almost +1°C in 2010, declining again to -0.6°C in 2010, and of course rising again to +0.75°C in 2023. There are also oscillations in the data back to the 1850s, but there is no trend overall up or down, and no correlation to CO2. The same is true for the heat content in the North Atlantic down to 1000m (Met Office data). No correlation to CO2, just a natural variability. That's the data. The Cold Blob is an artefact. The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
AMOC is an effect of Earths spin ie. a kind of centrifugal force, the fact that it moves warmer water from the bit that is close to the sun to the bit that is far away is a symptom not a cause, they are lying their doodahs off wake up cretins.....
After my own analysis of the data on sea temperatures in Florida available to me I have determined on my own that sea temperatures are indeed rising in much of Florida. This agrees with my anecdotal experience standing in the ocean. There's a serious problem here whether or not we created it is irrelevant We need to adapt to survive
There is no way we will stay below 2,5 degrees at this point, not happening. Also, politicians don't take anything seriously if the problem extends beyond 3-4 years.
Politicians are ANORMOUSLY influenced by "experts" - which usually are people who support our current economical model and don't want even think about changing it (although many economical scientists are amongst those experts - and usually you expect from scientists to do "research" - but exactly this is not don't by classical economical schools - their job seems to be to maintain the current system under any cost). To think it's mostly a "political" problem is just not accurate. Its a problem that there is absurdly much influence to maintain our economical system from all those who give "advice" to politics.
"There is no way we will stay below 2,5 degrees at this point" It has been below zero for many days where I live. I look forward to some global warming; or if not global, at least local.
We are in trouble because of those gullible fools who never bother to check the long term data and think there is something unusual going on with temperature weather or climate, just because a journalist who is paid to spread the companies propaganda says so.
Only the intellectually crippled would pay any attention whatsoever to this claptrap propaganda BS! Fortunately most people know what a criminal swindle this whole thing is!
Where I live on Lake Erie, we have two (turnovers) tipping points per year, one in the spring one in the fall. They’re not related to salinity, but temperature differences between surface and bottom during the spring and fall. These turnovers happen over a period hours or days. In the autumn which is analogous to the AMOC disruption surface water temperatures drop by 10° C and air temperature subsequently follow.
you do not understand what is a tipping point. Have a look to birufacation theory and Catastrophe theory by Arnold (catastraphe theory is a mathematics theory).
Oh they understand it all right. Who do you think is FUNDING the climate panic ? Who do you think set up the UNEP and the IPCC ? The billionaires at the Club of Rome thats who. Including the owners of Standard Oil the Rockefellers, who are huge doners to global warming extremist groups. The IPCC was set up by Club of Rome member Maurice Strong, Canadian oil industry multimillionaire and committed communist. Look at the Gore family, after his father lost his political seat, the Gore family was supported by money laundered in from Armand Hammer. Notorious Soviet business agent in the U.S Stalinist and communist agent of influence. It was at that time that Al Gore whose career was about dead, suddenly found Global Warming as an issue which revitalized his dying political career.
They do understand what is happening but think they can buy their way out of the crisis by buying up land which they think will not be flooded or effected in anyway. They think they can employ private armies to protect them.
This is really worrying. Until now I thought a severe slowdown of the AMOC was a hypothetical scenario that may happen in future centuries. Now I learn we are not only facing the possibility of a sudden and complete collaps of the AMOC, even worse this catastrophic event could be only a few decades down the road.
Hmmm, did the AMOC stop during the last 1500 year peak warming cycle during the Medieval warming ?, it was at least 2 Deg C warmer than now then. Did it stop during the Roman warming ?, the Minoan Warming ?, or the Holocene Thermal Optimum, 6000 and 8000 years ago ? all were hotter than the Medieval warming. For most of the last 8000 years it was warmer than now but suddenly the AMOC is likely to stop eh, notice they are talking about COMPUTER MODELS !!!, the output of computer models depends on the factors input to the program. If you want you can easily programme a computer model to give you the outcome you want . This is why the IPCC preferred computer models for temperature show at least double the warming we have actually had, they input factors based on the idea that Co2 will have a significant effect on temperature and the model results show VOILA Co2 DOES, and you get exaggerated projected temperatures, input factors that Co2 has only a small effect on temperature at current concentrations and you get model outcomes that show temperature outcomes in line with actual measurements (the Russian model). After decade upon decade of temperature and climate propaganda that predicts disasters that NEVER happen, i would have thought a rational person would have consulted the ACTUAL long term data and taken programs like this for what they are...PROPAGANDA.
@@peterjones4180 Where I live I can see the glaciers disappearing rapidly. Skiing resorts are being dismantled due to lack of snow. The volume of sea ice in the Arctic ocean has fallen some 50% in just 3 decades. And you claim nothing significant would be going on?!
@@peterjones4180the medieval warm period was not 2° warmer globally though there was some regional warming though not 2°. Nor were the others. Where are you getting your information from?
The climate is always changing. Earth's climate is extremely volatile. The last 10,000 years have been mild but we're due for some corrections and it's going to be a bumpy ride, as it always has been.
🙄 I mean, it's honest wording. Anthropogenic climate change is still "climate change", you can't destroy climate, there will always be some sort of climate 🤷 in some climates we'd all be dead though.
🙄 I mean, it's honest wording. Anthropogenic climate change is still "climate change", you can't destroy climate, there will always be some sort of climate 🤷 in some climates we'd all be dead though.
I think it is very possible tmits shutting down. Northern Europe get out your snow suits. Its going to get cold. The odd thing about this dilemma is that stopping the use of bunker fuel in shipping has accelerated the change significantly, due to the reduction in cloud cover over the ocean. I'm thinking using bunker fuel in international waters may slow the change. I am thinking; will this cause an ice age or just wreck our climate norms? Also, how long does it take to reset? Will it reset, or will a new current develop? What is this going to do to marine life?
Thank you for sharing this presentation on YT. It is fascinating. It already clarified the role, or lack thereof, of the Gulf Stream in relationship to AMOC.
It hasn't clarified anything. This is a scare story about things you cannot see. To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC." Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation. Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2. MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021) The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv. "Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years. There is no climate crisis. The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations. The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two. The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
Sure, but that's 1k adults looking for information vs 14M children (and bots) mindlessly mashing the subscribe button. We should not measure success this way.
From what I've seen, we have no way to control this situation. We're along for the ride. Everyone loves a good "Create a better world" sales pitch, but nobody thinks about what destroying the current one will look like. For example, if you go to a poor nation and cut off their fuels, they will cut down the forest to stay warm and cook their food until the forest is gone, which won't take more than a couple years. You can't just make people completely powerless by telling them they can't do this, and to suck it up. They will revolt. Then what, machine gun them all down until you have a population that the forest can support? People think it's the leaders who are corrupt for not doing anything. The real corruption, is people believing that we can do something, without understanding the horrible unimaginable to them consequences they will have to live with. The titanic crashed and sank because they built a big ship with a rudder too small to maneuver. The thing to understand about the Titanic, was that the worst part of that disaster was that there weren't enough life boats, and the rich didn't want to crowd them. The best thing for most would be to reduce what we can, and march into catastrophe. Every government solution is framed by a mentality of, "How do we solve this problem and maintain power." If catastrophe is all the same, they will simply choose who gets on a life boat, and proceed to sink the ship. The ship is sinking, and sea level rise won't be your worry soon.
No one claims we are in control of the climate system. But we can create a better society, by doing exactly what you suggest. Ending fossil fuels, and reducing consumption, but also equalizing wealth and resources would be a net benefit for most people. Additionally, the stability which would arise from economic security and healing from environmental protection would provoke a golden age of creativity, connection, and well-being. The problem is the unwillingness of the wealthy and powerful to admit responsibility and sacrifice their status because of their pathological belief in the inevitability of their superiority, moral desirability of their elevation, and necessity of the current unequal arrangement to expand. They literally believe the economy must grow faster than climate problems, so some amazing combination of technology and innovation will eventually fix the natural world. By this logic, safeguarding the economy, is the only way to protect humans from the climate. They plan to sacrifice the climate for economic growth.
@@Rnankn *This few $$$ppl control 8 Billion?* So that all 8 Billion might go extinct??? Is there anyone sane on the planet? Obviously not. I wouldn't expect too much...
@@Rnankn"their pathological belief in the inevitability of their superiority" great phrasing! This is the backbone of the rapacious neoliberal economy that dominates the world.Neoliberal economies are diametrically opposed to the solutions of climate change, they are wealth pumps which are extremely difficult to switch off.
@@Rnankn Ending fossil fuels will produce a real life Mad Max world. The modern world, your quality of life, from nutrition to health is fully dependent on inexpensive reliable energy. Socialism, which is what you're advocating stating "equalizing wealth" has never worked at any time in history, anywhere in the world under anybody's management. *"because of their pathological belief in the inevitability of their superiority, moral desirability of their elevation,"* Pure hyperbole. I've never met an entrepreneur, investor or business owner in my entire life who could be characterized in this manner. This is pure slander and demonization, almost always stemming from envy.
The human race, in general, is paralyzed, in reversing the exponential damages of 'overshoot.' Gross overpopulation, addiction to over consumption, international and social division, and monetary dependency have rendered us incapable of behaving differently than any other animal can, in circumstances of overshoot. We're in a runaway train with lousy brakes. If you feel this way, as I do, all that is left is to serve an obligation to live as respectful as possible to other life forms. Love, and preserve what you can, in your everyday life. Be kind, whenever you can find it within yourself.
Phuket, Thailand has a direct line of sight to Antarctica and the ocean was always bracingly cool, even in the middle of hot season w eastern winds. No more, almost Luke warm last year.
You see the thing about deniers is that they dont deny that climate changes and they dont dent that it has warmed. What they do deny is what has been claimed without justification and rigorous scientific proof. While we are at it how about YOU tell me At what atmospheric concentration of Co2 does it create its maximum warming effect ?
Other Earth was older. Its sun was much older and in its death throws making evacuation necessary. We were advanced to the point of abandoning most trivial technology because we learned to use our minds and hearts to live and communicate. They sent we pioneers all over the multiverse, hoping we could make it and take root somewhere else. It was a desperate attempt at survival. One tiny group made it here, but we suffered massive genetic damage when we crossed through the universal distinction field while being in time lock. Barry said it would happen, but we had to try. We lost many of our strengths and abilities to get here. The elders retained most of the knowledge, but the very few young could barely comprehend and reembody the old ways. Just learning to live here was a full time endeavor. What we retained became very fragmented and dispersed, and all but forgotten. It wasn't long before fighting started with our damaged empath circuits and loss of telepathy, and here we are! This is what I learned of our forefathers by listening to the moon singing. Peace!
EXPLANATION: Cold water sinks at the north Atlantic down welling point not just because cold water has more density, but because that cold water takes on increased salinity (saltiness from the warm, upper, north bound circulation), and the salinity increases density causing the warm salty water of the upper north bound circulation to become cold and sink to become the southern bound lower cold circulation. This low, cold, southern bound circulation then circulation to the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) and throughout the world. This is called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and is THE down welling point that activated global ocean circulation. The ice melting in Greenland is dumping cold FRESH WATER with low to no salinity into the down welling point (the "cold blob" into the "AMOC"), not sinking, pushing the warm north bound circulation south in a sense. Sort of stretching out the connection point (down welling point) between the warmer, upper, north bound circulation, and the colder, lower, southern bound circulation. It's like stretching a piece of play dough, taffy or gum, eventually it breaks. This "cold blob" increasing, because the Greenland freshwater ice is still melting into the north Atlantic, also causes the WARM gulf stream to push west and north to hug the North American east coast even tighter, cutting off it's flow to Ireland, the UK, west Europe, and Scandanavia, and possibly causing increased cooling there. Paleoclimate proxy data, has also demonstrated how in the past when the AMOC shut down, the tropical rain belt shifted southward, probably related to the northern end of the upper, warm, high salinity circulation, also moving south, due to increased cooling in the north. Then the cooling of the north Atlantic was caused by a southern expansion of ice, now it's cause by melting of the ice in Greenland due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 (a greenhouse gas that traps exiting solar radiation in the atmosphere) with 12C and 13C isotopes, with the SAME ISOTOPIC RATIOS FOUND IN PLANTS, BUT WITH NO PROPORTIONAL INCREASE IN RADIOACTIVE 14C... BECAUSE IT IS CAUSED BY ANCIENT PLANTS WHERE THE RADIOACTIVE ISOTOPES HAVE DECAYED....aka fossil fuels. Fossil fuels (mainly coal) are why we start seeing all the data of warming and other related changes begin not long after the start of THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. Nuclear testing messed up findings for a bit by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels also, but after the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963 scientists began seing "a decrease" in radioactive 14C, which was actually an increase in 12C and 13C from the continued release of 12C and 13C from fossil fuels.
As this is something that has been said on a regular basis for at least fifty years and NEVER HAPPENEDS, when the data of projected disaster comes due i will just stick with what the long term data says thanks. The long term data says nothing unusual is happening with temperature, weather, climate, rate of sea level movement at all for our current interglacial, NOTHING.
Tipping points RUBBISH we had temperatures of 2 Deg C MORE than now during the Medieval warming, prior to the Little Ice Age, warmer than that during the Roman, Minoan warmings and the Holocene Thermal Optimum 6000-8000 years ago. The 1.5 Deg C figure is and always was just a bit of propaganda from the IPCC. The professor who provided that figure (from the Potsdam Institute surprise surprise) in a later interview told the truth, that is the IPCC approached him for a figure to use for their propaganda , he told them such a figure would be scientifically meaningless , but they insisted so he just plucked 1.5 Deg C out of the air. It shouldnt surprise you that a former communist institute in East Germany is happy to take the climate funding.
And if we have reached the tipping point already….whose gonna say? Storm surge flooding on the Gulf Coast of Florida from Hurricane Helene took many long time coastal residents by surprise… could sea level be rising faster on the East Coast of North America already due to the slowing down of AMOC?
@@The_War_Report No looking at the weather says all is NORMAL ! Our weather, temperature and climate are ALL within normal long term variability for our current interglacial. The long term data makes that VERY clear. Whats out of balance is your ability to function in this society, you clearly dont realize how much you are deceived and flat out lied to in the media. Which is clearly where you get your perspective from. Our meteorological history records show you are wrong egregiously wrong.
The UK & Northern Europe will likely start experiencing continental winters like Chicago or Moscow and Central Europe will likely become another tornado alley.
Now that's the spirit! Let's fight back! Probably take a team of 72 scientists 11.6 years and cost 2.3 billion dollars and 157,000 tons of c02 emissions to give you a ballpark estimate... But at least those scientists get to go on a nice long tax payer funded vacation....Oops scientific research expedition!
I wouldn't say irrelevant, but it is inevitable at this point. We still need to stop doing what we're doing, stop ignoring the signs, and stop buying in to fixes that are sold to profit off the awareness. Adaptation of a warmer world will be difficult but unavoidable, but it's the rarest thing discussed. We are a species of procrastination.
@@rhaedas9085 Really adaption to a warmer world difficult ? Well was it difficult to adapt to a 2 Deg C warmer world only around 1000 years ago during the Medieval Warm Period, or the Roman Warm period, or the Minoan Warm Period, or the Holocene Thermal Optimum 6000-8000 years ago ? Its not the warm periods that are a problem but the COOLINGS look at life after the slide from the Medieval Warming into the Little Ice Age. The planet will warm and cool in line with its natural cycles, best to hope that we are adding some warmth to the globe in spite of the fact that if we are we cannot currently tell as the amount is smaller than the margin of error in the normal temperature fluctuations.
@@hg6996 Not only am i EXTREMLY well informed, but suspect that i speak to far more scientists that have been lead authors for the IPCC scientific reports than YOU do. How about you list everything i posted you think is factually incorrect. I dare you. I will be happy to educate you.
@@peterjones4180 Well, you are free to believe whatever you want. My impression is that you took the opportunity not to learn anything about the ongoing man made climate change. Your choice. But in case you are really as well informed as you are saying then enjoy the money you are receiving from the fossil fuel industry. Seems to be an attractive source of income.
In 2023, greenhouse gas emissions set a new global record of 57.1 gigatons (CO2eq) last year, a 1.3 per cent increase from 2022 levels. (2024 UN Emissions Gap Report)
@hg6996 That consolation only works if you don't have a stake in the future ie. You don't have children! Otherwise knowing what your children are going to have to face caused by your generation will give you no peace in death
I wonder why the Gulf-stream would stop (even if it gets a fresh water effect from the north) not just be averted to a more southern path. And even if it would stop I wonder why that would also stop the transfer of the heat from the south to the north in the Atlantic Ocean. Would this transfer not remain just in a dfiferent, more dispersed way (not as clustered, directed, integrated as in the Gulf-stream)? Does someon have an answer or idea about these problems?
Yes, we hear the experts repeat the same facts, the same warnings - and the politicians react by committing to worthlessly small projects, while still allowing those industries that do the 'real' damage to continue doing as they have always done. The most worthy work is being done by charities or individuals who struggle hard to raise enough money from an increasingly impoverished public to plant trees and clean waterways. Governments could help them achieve an impact ten times greater with money they throw away on useless ambition and self promotion (for example the £60,000 of taxpayer's money spent by a UK minister on vanity photographs. Think what good all that money could have done). In a way I hope the cold spot bang next door to the British Isles might turn out to be a very good 'wake up call' for our environmentalist-hating Prime Minister - or at least for the people that voted for him.
@@Debbie-henri Industrialized Countries cheat for good/bad reasons. You're a brit - having not recognized that the whole EU shifting far_right while the US goes full fascist? Plz NO All Countries tries to pay climate change with tax-money. That's intended suicide. Charming Charities like to be effed for the sake in heaven later...? Well known pattern. The effect for climate is zero. Planting trees for instance is a bullshit idea. All you get is trouble with maintainance. You know - the water.... It takes 20 - 30 years for them to be mature - and *start* seriously 'working' We don't have time anymore, my friend.
IMO, it is simple: AMOC is weaken, less heat is transferred by the ocean current, then it has to be transferred by something else: atmosphere. But it is less efficient so it has to be more violent.
Consider this atmosphere contributing factor that appears to have crossed the trigger point of its hysteresis curve: CONTEXT: Stranded by a blizzard in my bilevel house, installed an airtight wood stove in the basement, which got very hot, while the upstairs stayed cold. Using the smoke of incense to see the air flow, found a "thermal barrier at the bottom of the stairs. The cold air at the bottom was rising as the hot air of the basement was dropping with inefficient exchange heat (no moisture exchange) or attenuation (side note, vortexes would in the barrier from top to bottom). The solution was cutting a hole in the floor for a grate for convection to break the thermal barrier. Both the basement and upstairs instantly got hot and water on the stove worked to moisten the dried air. (Dated late 1970s) Coincidences: a missionary child early 1960s around the world by ship & 3 years 2 months sea duty was watching SV Delos crossing the Pacific for a 2nd trip around the world approaching the "doldrums" near the equator had images of glass smooth water the 1st trip, while this trip had "squall city". With eclectic interests, RUclips recommended a video on "global air flow", which showed the 3 nodes from the equator to the pole. Named after the person that discovered them. Starting with the hot moist air at the equator rising, crossing the node to drop as the hot air of my basement did, transferring heat to the other side of the barrier rising to cross the 2nd node. SV CALICO SKIES, a companion vessel was delayed because of health issues (I shared this with them to share) they and others got across the doldrums as fast as they could motor as others had serious challenges. Being globally aware, hypothesize that the meeting between the nodes have been acting "as the thermal barrier in my house" allowing rapid shifting of heat and moisture to the poles, displacing the cold. The evidence are the extreme changes from hot to cold with greater amounts of water. The vectors caused by our rotating ball with changing velocity of movement across different circumferences is going require significant adjustments to the models. SUMMARY: With the thermal barrier in my house working as a hysteresis curve is improbable to return to a temperature difference to trigger back to creating the thermal barrier again. Therefore, industries "CONTROL" of the genetic food engineering will no longer be appropriate for this new climate and the future of humanity, at best, will be an endangered species or extinct 🤔 Navy 🇺🇸 veteran AMD AVIONICS HELICOPTER CREWMAN (defending freedom of religion-RIGHT!), (all bridges of trust burned by inquisition demonized slandered shunned for doing Native American Sweatlodges, in 10th year of solitude) missionary child of an educator, NDEs, witness
Who among the commenters here has committed to never flying in an airplane again? The truth is that *no-one* wants to pay the price for a stable climate.
No car. No kids. Worth about 1000 flights at least. Point is, as good as it feels to do something, without everyone and everything changing drastically, it's all drops in the ocean.
@gregvanpaassen having one fewer child saves 58.6 metric tons co2 each year. , a flight works out at 2000 to 5000kg per passenger, so let's say 5000kg. That means having a kid is the same as 11.72 intercontinental flights each year. You have kids?
No car, no flights, no ferries, vacation by bike, no meat, no fast fashion, no fast food. But I am sure that the fact I am consuming energy to post this comment disqualifies me...?
Maybe it’s just me, but as I understand it, the size of the „cold blob“ is not related to how warm the climate is absolutely, but to the speed of how fast it gets warmer? So as long as we slow the climate warming down, we would be fine regarding AMOC breakdown, no matter how far this slower climate warming would lead us in the end?
If by the diplomatic clout of the Nordic Council of Ministers he meant to suggest they're utter dregs, perpetually bent over and ready to serve every wish of the US establishment then he's got his expectations set just about right.
I hope everyone watching this and who is scared and worried has started acting accordingly. Quit flying, massive reduction of animal products consumption, massive reduction of gasoline usage and individual motorized transportation, and stopping buying things you don't need. Reality is, everyone is somehow worried and scared, but a real behaviour shift is missing. And adaption is not an option. Plants and humans had many thousand years to adapt on local condition. Those who think we can adapt within 40 years are real fools.
Noone seems to have realized, that it's the End times, as Jesus predicted. Seems the entire world is sleeping and was not ready for his second coming 🤷🏼♀️
What a load of bollocks. Your post has no relevance to the real world at all, Its like listening to a Scientologist extoll the virtues of taking a personality test. There is NOTHING unusual happening with our weather, temperature or climate AT ALL, they are TOTALLY within long term variability for our current interglacial. Clearly you havent bothered to consult the long term data but are simply a gullible believer in a religious sense.
Thank you. Responding to attempts to silence scientists: Scientists and doctors are also private citizens. When there's a 100% consensus on a body of scientific findings that finds that the public is in peril, as citizens they have a right and a duty to warn. They may not have the expertise to decide *which* public policy is best, but to question the ethics of raising awareness of an eminent danger is in itself unethical.
The trouble is those who are alert to the science are not the ones making decisions on human response. And are far,far too nice,polite and passive to insist that those in power act.Hell, most don't even get involved in protest movements
Warmer Iceland means thinner ice sheets. Keeping less pressure on those big dangerous shield volcanoes. A knock-on effect being more regular disruptive eruptions affecting air travel and air quality. A catch-22 situation that will just get worse over time.
...perhaps we should deploy a fleet of floating heat pumps for electricity to pull the heat out of the current and dump salt off Greenland, something to try while we fry
I guess two questions. Will Ireland be colder than today or colder in relation to future warming but warmer than today? Also, there is no significant meridional overturning in the North Pacific. Why is the warm Japanese strong enough to keep northwestern America relatively mild and warm for its latitude without the overturning where the Atlantic Gulf Stream will not keep the northwest part of Europe mild?
That is the entire point of the AMOC topic. Melting ice from Greenland dumps fresh, low salinity, water into the sea. This slows the down welling and pushes the warm upper, north moving circulation more south. It also pushed the gulf stream more to the west, wealing it's warming effect on western Europe, Ireland, the UK and Scandanavia. And apparently the freaking IPCC wasn't even taking the melt water into account so therefore in essence weren't seriously taking the AMOC issue into account.
That is the entire point of the AMOC topic. Melting ice from Greenland dumps fresh, low salinity, water into the sea. This slows the down welling and pushes the warm upper, north moving circulation more south. It also pushed the gulf stream more to the west, wealing it's warming effect on western Europe, Ireland, the UK and Scandanavia. And apparently the freaking IPCC wasn't even taking the melt water into account so therefore in essence weren't seriously taking the AMOC issue into account.
Hey, what if we didn’t allow anyone to own weather modifying technology like stratospheric aerosol injection that is slowing the AMOC while also owning mining permits, redevelopment plans or government penchants? Just a thought.
Everyone collectively affected by weather modifying technology on the planet. Call it a coop to regulate and enforce the tech and property rights. As it is what the Nutrino Ice Cube is doing violates all kinds of treaties in Antarctica.
It's unreal for me to realize that after 44 years people are still preaching the mantra: "Just you wait, it's going to be bad, you'll see". Repeat decade after decade in perpetuity.
"sudden interest"? In the AMOC? This isn't sudden at all, it's an old topic. And it implies a specific change in the climates of the Nordic countries, along with Ireland, the UK and western Europe because of clod run off pushing the warm upper current south and the gulf stream east.
"sudden interest"? In the AMOC? This isn't sudden at all, it's an old topic. And it implies a specific change in the climates of the Nordic countries, along with Ireland, the UK and western Europe because of clod run off pushing the warm upper current south and the gulf stream east.
Conflicting and Confusing - how to measure (d)T'c(x,y)/t(s) imagine 100000 tiny balls - in 4 types as in 4 depths all provided with a pinger - that sends block[1]=dwd:ball_id + block[2]=dt:time + block[3]=dwd:temp measured dropped at entry location - picked up at ext location (if even found) the data is picked up . . processed and graphed.
Fear may create action. In fact, although they are still very reluctant to do very much worth doing, politicians in a very few countries have started to indulge in financing some small projects. Last year (or maybe it's ongoing, I don't know), you could sponsor tree planting for free through Microsoft's weather app. So that's one major contributor to climate change that is doing at least a very minor thing. Public pressure has started to 'force' a few forestry industries to replant with mixed natives alongside forestry species. Then there's Ocean CleanUp. Okay, so that is a private concern for now, but as things get steadily worse, governments will start to realise its contribution - and with the initial experimentation already done, the template for working vehicles and satisfactory collection now in place, it is only a matter of replicating the set-up in multiple places across the worst affected areas in the world's oceans. Similar machines/ideas work in a few rivers across the world, stopping trash from reaching the oceans in the first place. Again, at least some of these have been designed and tested by individuals who have sought public funding. Then there is plastic - a very few companies are responding and changing their packaging. It is 'up to us' to favour those companies that do change, and nag/reject those that don't. Then there is the very great impact that each of us with a garden can have on the environment. This is an area where I think there is a great deal of ignorance, especially among many in the West, and a growing number in other countries that like to copy Western habits. Mowing - totally unnecessary, a waste of fuel, a waste of resources to create machines that are manufactured to become increasingly short-lived (to the point that many think it is normal to buy a new Flymo every year). If people were to return to cottage garden styles, incorporating native species among their beloved ornamentals, then we could all create havens for wild species, creating 'highways' for insects and birds through human-inhabited areas. (There is a good organisation in Pennsylvania called the Homegrown National Park trying to promote wildlife gardening. Other gardeners from other US states have also shown an interest in registering their gardens, but my personal opinion is that the organisers should make this a blueprint project for the rest of the world. Governments worldwide could encourage this form of gardening and 'tick' this box for environmental impact at the same time - at very little cost to themselves - by promising homeowners that comply that an environment-based mower/garden licence/tax would be waived if gardeners committed to No-Mow, No-Spray, and planted at least 20% native plants in their gardens. Basically, you would be tax-free for going green in your own garden. Wildlife gardening, and obeying certain rules with what you do in your garden - like not filling it with scrap and turning it into a slab of concrete/gravel, would be enormously beneficial to the world's health, given how many gardens there must be in the world, and how much acreage they must represent.
The collapse of the AMOC could be beneficial to reduce the rate of global warming for the following reasons: 1. It could help to reduce albedo loss associated with the reduction of the arctic sea ice currently at 0.5watts/m2. 2. It could stabilize the greenland ice sheet, 3. stabilize the weakening polar vortex and prevent further northward shift, 4. prevent permafrost thaw 5. stabilize Boreal forest degradation, 6. prevent methyl clathrate thaw and 7. preserve the equator-arctic temperature differential.
But without the AMOC that removes heat to bring it to Europe, the South East US coast will be much hotter. Do you get what it means?? In terms of heat waves, of storms, of high TW (at 35°C TW humans die !). You don't understand what you are stating mate !
@@franckr6159 We have to look at the big picture as catastrophe can no longer be averted and we have to reduce the net radiative forcing/energy imbalance as much as is possible to alleviate the worst case scenario.... I believe we are overlooking pertinent ways of natural climate regulation.... Regardless some regions will become uninhabitable.
@grindupBaker Anthropology is my favorite topic. I've already responded to you. Why did you delete it? Did you not like my answer? I love reason backed by data how about you? Do you also read papers published in Nature and Science on a daily basis?
@@samuelsoroaster416 It's not a "pertinent ways of natural climate regulation" (the "natural" regulation is precisely when AMOC brings heat to cold areas, which makes the planet more habitable). Listening to climate scientists, they don't consider it could bring any benefit, on the contrary, they state that it would be detrimental to fishes and that Europe would get more extreme events both in summer and winter. And on top the fact that tropical areas would retain more heat, hence become unlivable, which millions of people that would be mass-migrating.
@@franckr6159 The data is clear for those who have the ability to see the big picture... How does anyone explain the 1 C cooling during the Younger Dryas? i know what i'm talking about.
It's all because of the Panama Canal. Rather, it is because ever since the construction of the Panama Canal, the regular circulatory pattern is being disrupted. 🤔.
Too soft. With so much at stake, this needs more than a letter. I know not what but it feels like these words are simply destined to get lost in the wind.
My suggestion to you sport is that when a scientist says , the models say this and this may happen, hold onto your wallet, and look to the past to see how many times such statements turned out to be correct in the long term. I myself are still waiting to find one since 1977.
@@peterjones4180 This is exactly why scientists speak in terms of trends usually, and most of the time they do not make adamant statements. They point to "what the evidence suggests". And most of the time they are correct in their assessment of forecasting general trends.
@@peterjones4180 This is exactly why scientists speak in terms of trends usually, and most of the time they do not make adamant statements. They point to "what the evidence suggests". And most of the time they are correct in their assessment of forecasting general trends.
@@whatabouttheearth Really, then you need to look at some of their public statements. You will find that there are many scientists that make public statements often not in line with their own published paper. Look at the responses on this page, most of them walked away confident that the AMOC is going to stop ! That was the WHOLE purpose of this piece of political theater.
This is precisely the current warming (driven by our CO2 emissions) that is triggering the AMOC slow down, so I wouldn't add even more CO2 !! And if Europe finally cools down it means that AMOC will not be moving heat from Florida to Europe and instead leave the heat near the US coast: do you get what it means for the USA?
@@franckr6159 so what would be the smartest move for Europe after AMOC have shut down and it got cold? Staying cold, or getting warmer again by producing large amounts of carbon dioxide? What would be the best choice the Europeans could make in this situation, the best choice for themselves, not for US-Americans?
@@peterp5099 Adding even more CO2 would be good for NOBODY ! Not USA, not even Europe as if the tropical areas warm more and faster than currently expected it means that these regions will soon become UNLIVABLE, just check the effect on human beings of a wet temperature reaching 35°C (humans die after a few hours). See this paper: "The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance" by Colin Raymond et al. (in Science Advances). Which means that some 3 Billions of people will try to migrate to colder areas (Europe), guess what will happen: chaos and deadly wars. Conclusion: like it or not we have no other choice than strongly reducing our CO2 emissions ASAP !
@@franckr6159 but I’m not speaking of now, I’m speaking of a time after AMOC crashed and Europe got cold. Wouldn’t increasing CO2 output be the way for Europe to get livable living conditions again after the end of AMOC made it unlivable cold?
@@peterp5099 Again: NO. A continent alone cannot gain when the entire world around collapses and fall into chaos and wars. Only narrow-minded people can think this way.
Is the effect of geoengineering factored into development of these models and the whole climate change research? Since 1950's the Earth atmosphere was affected by various impacts (nuclear bomb testing, spraying various chemicals into the sky undrer various gov programmes as recorded in print and media). The weather modification programmes have been in full effect for decades. Do you have any research papers that investigate the effect of these programmes? Or are the researchers paid to avoid this topic in general??
Heres the solution, North Sea oil has to have brine...release it into north sea, will bring salinity back...I can even calculate how much brine to dump....theres brine here in Merica we can ship ya
forget it, even in a hundred years you can put enough salt in this system to keep it running stably. Apart from the fact that it will fail because of three problems: too expensive, not provitable and too many Americans who don't give a damn.
Nah, it will merely counteract the net warming that already is happening in the northern hemisphere. Summers will be hotter, winters colder. Ice age wont happen.
The Ice Ages, which are simply an expansion of the polar ice (not "snowball"/"slushball" earth) shut down AMOC due to cooling of the northward circulation and pushing it south. That doesn't lead to Ice Ages if your not already in an Ice Age because how would it cause an increase of polar ice itself. It shuts down lower oceanic cool circulation.
The Ice Ages, which are simply an expansion of the polar ice (not "snowball"/"slushball" earth) shut down AMOC due to cooling of the northward circulation and pushing it south. That doesn't lead to Ice Ages if your not already in an Ice Age because how would it cause an increase of polar ice itself. It shuts down lower oceanic cool circulation.
So let me ask you this, this blob is being caused by a chemocline/thermocline situation. Could we not artificially stir the water at the blobs barriers to force salinity into the blob to allow the cool water to sink, because cold is going to sink as long as it has the required salinity to do so. Look, if we made this mess, lets take a bunch of salt and pour it into this region and stir the pot to bring about the necessary equilibrium. The thermocline itself is solved by solving the situation created by the chemocline as heat naturally rises and cold naturally sinks, so instead of saying we can't do anything about this, lets stir it up and fix this problem ourselves shall we.
Have you any idea how big the machines to stir it would have to be? It would be such a big project - and who pays for it? You think the increasingly impoverished British public would stand another tax rise? All of Europe? You think America would want to chip in with a few trillion on top of its debt? Let's ask China, since their filthy industrial practices and the mass production of so much obsolescent rubbish is at least partially responsible for this. Let's ask India for their contribution, since they are contributing industrially too. How about asking those countries who contribute by continuous overpopulating, and unable to support the mass of people they create, they release them on the rest of the world to become their burden. Or do you think everyone will kindly chip in? Russia? North Korea? Half the Middle East who don't give a rat if Britain freezes over? Yeah, we all know who will want to make the (substandard) machines, but no one will want to finance them..
I find this whole situation we find ourselves in hilarious - it's as if we are all at the back of the bus screaming as we head towards the cliff edge and it's not as if the brakes don't work but the driver is a vision impaired maniac who not only can't the edge but believes it doesn't exist.
What's hilarious is that the people all screaming at the back of the bus are climate zealots, even though the bus keeps on driving uninterrupted and with everybody aboard nice and safe. But heck, they just keep shrieking.
@@anthonymorris5084nice and safe?
Record deaths from heat waves already. Not to mention hundreds of millions of climate refugees, coming to a decade near you
You think the brakes *work?* Do you have any idea what happens if we put on the brakes? Our world runs on oil. There's a reason nothing has been done. Who is willing to kill millions now for the possibility of saving billions later? Nobody who holds an elected office. The truth sucks.
The reality is humanities fate is sealed. We are an extinct species walking. Not many, if any, humans will see the year 2100.
@@SigFigNewton There is zero evidence for your claim. Data proves that the cold kills vastly more people than the heat.
People who die from heat are impoverished people proving that poverty is the issue not warming. Poverty is also vastly easier to remedy and a far more realistic goal than preventing the planet from warming which is impossible.
There has never been a "climate refugee", ever. People have been fleeing poverty, violence and oppression for centuries.
25% of the Netherlands already sits below sea level. The Dutch aren't dying, drowning, fleeing or becoming climate refugees, Why? Because they live in a modern prosperous nation.
In the 1970's 250,000 people died in cyclical flooding in Bangladesh when 25% of the nation flooded, why? Poverty.
Death tolls from natural disasters including *every single climate related disaster* have been in precipitous decline for a hundred years, all due to the modern world and wealth creation that keeps us safe.
@@Mike80528 Evidence - "trust me bro". There isn't a credible scientist on the face of the Earth claiming humans are going extinct. It's absurd.
Good but brief talk by Stefan Rahmstorf. He really had to crash through the material due to the short time he had. Better and more understandable versions of his talk are available on RUclips which really bring home the enormity of what is/could happen if the AMOC stops. A very important subject. Thanks Stefan.
Alarmist. One man show
@@MrKorton A leading scientist on the subject. Yes it is alarming.
@@petewright4640 A leading Apocalyptic
@@MrKorton What do you feel he got wrong?
@@MrKorton would you like to show us your science? Or are you just another uninformed fool
Everybody should watch this
539 views in 22 hours. Not promising.
@@russmarkham2197
'The Next President'
a 47 years old song from
Freddie mcCoy dit Ahmed Sofi
In 2 week 254 views. Not promising
@@russmarkham2197
'The Next President'
a 47 years old song from
Freddie mcCoy dit Ahmed Sofi
In 2 weeks 254 views. Not promising.
But they aren’t :(
Especially for us in the uk
They are waiting until it happens, and nothing can be done, to react and try to prevent it. Such is the logic of short-term governance, public opinion primacy, and false equivalencies between siloized policy ‘trade-offs’. If the biosphere and climate are not prioritized above all else, national states are merely fleeting self-terminating projects within a humanity whose future will be consumed by desperate struggles for survival.
Brilliant and true but they can't say this for fear of widespread panic and accusations of scaremongering. It's about time the truth of the catastrophe we are now entering is made clear to all humanity
@@graemeguy341 What catastrophe? Over the last 44 years how has your life been in peril? What threats have you faced? How has your life been compromised? What danger are you in? Hyperbolic nonsense.
You got it. It will be worse than anyone can imagine. The fabric of reality itself will be reshaped and re-woven.
@@anthonymorris5084 you're not only dense, but BLIND
@@anthonymorris5084I think you’ve hit the nail on the head here. The real problem is the Human Brain Paradox.
We evolved to only respond to physical threats when they are unambiguously imminent. I’m sure this helped us survive in our early evolution, not wasting energy on threats that may not affect us. We evolved big clever brains that are great at solving immediate problems. Our big brains have allowed us to create technology (agriculture, medicine, shelters) to avoid the clear and present threats of the environment (starvation, thirst, disease, predation). Thus we have become insulated us from the environment around us.
Being removed from everyday environmental threats has created surplus energy for us as individuals and societies and that has led to our vast array of innovations: music, art, maths, technology. But our technology innovations include 2 opposing types:
Type1. the ability to release millennia of stored energy into the world in under 200years which has fundamentally changed the very environment features (rainfall, temperature, weather patterns) our survival technologies (agriculture, fisheries, water management, cities) are based on.
Type 2. the ability to identify, measure and extrapolate the cause and meaning of changes in our environment, recognize their impact on our survival technologies and identify ways to fix the problem.
So despite being fully aware of what we are doing to ourselves and knowing how to fix it, as a species we are incapable of responding to this future threat because it doesn’t yet feel real and present and unambiguous. Of course the catch is that our ancient instinct to wait and see won’t work in the case of climate change because by the time our pants are on fire it will be too late to put the fire out.
You couldn’t design a better trap for Homo Sapiens if you tried. We’ve caught ourselves in our own trap.
I always think it ironic and somewhat hubristic that the moniker we assigned to ourselves “Homo Sapiens” means Wise Human. We’re not wise, we’re cunning. And cunning only gets you so far.
1.5 degrees Celsius is years behind us, and a rise of 3 degrees+ is what the future holds... The tipping point for the AMOC shutdown has also passed us by. Sadly, it's in the nature of tipping points that "we" don't even notice them until they are passed and conditions within the system are rapidly shifting to a completely different state of being.
A total AMOC shutdown is both inevitable and irreversible, and could happen at any time, given the ever increasing volume of meltwater coming from the Greenland icecaps increasingly rapid meltdown; growing that "cold blob" bigger by the day...
We're certainly going to be living through some "interesting times", from here on out. Our extinction is basically looming on the horizon this very day...
Every day I grieve, for a while. Then get back into "acceptance", and living in the moment. Keeping life really simple...
This is pure hyperbole. A tipping point simply represents temporary or permanent change to the environment. The climate movement has dishonestly and deliberately conflated "tipping points" with catastrophe, for the purpose of spreading fear.
There isn't a credible scientist on this planet predicting human extinction. Get a grip.
@@HarryONeil I believe 5 degree difference is when life isn't sustainable by any means
to become frogs.. crunchy frogs.. layered with sweet chocolate..
@@bettysue8671 It's not certain, but I have heard it's closer to 4 degrees and that applies to advanced multi-cellular life. Bacteria and fungi (for a while) could persist.
The fact they keep referencing the vague "pre-industrial baseline" instead of a set value, and the *fact* they have changed the value of that baseline makes the guidance worthless. As you say, we are already fucked. Humanity is an extinct species that just doesn't know it yet. We are more like the White Rhino than we care to realize...
It's like: sitting on the titanic and make plans for the arrival at NY. I'm sitting in a first class deckchair, counting my money and make plans. It's cold and dark and at the horizon I see Icebergs. But I am buzzy, because I am counting my money and making a plan. My kids are fine, they are sleeping. All four of them. At the Titanic.
Very poetic analogy but not at all accurate.
More like "happy sailors dancing on a sinking ship" I think.
The musicians who didn't stop playing the music are very psychotic in the room.
They wanted to calm people down, but the half-full and almost empty lifeboats show that their help would have been needed somewhere else.
The movie 'Don't Look Up' is becoming increasingly real. Including a future president who is not trustworthy, biased, crazy, and most importantly, a hardcore fascist. There is no escape anymore, get used to it.
Get out of our country, and do it now.
that movies is so funny bc is so real
I just literally thought this, yesterday! I was like wtf, everyone is actively ignoring that we are literally going to die. Not in our kids lifetime or their kids... our lifetime. Like now. Not in 2030. Not in 100 years. We have 2 years maybe 2.
Which is crazy bc Mo Gawdt, former Google tech operating director, stated it with AI yet then I saw the UN made a speech stating we had 2 years to save the world, quote on quote. They meant literally... and, I'm starting to see the exponential growth in which we can't survive once the ball starts rolling...
Crazy thing is, with my experience with Death (I've nearly died 15 xs) YOU DONT REALIZE YOU'RE DYING WHEN UR DYING. I know, it sounds odd, but it just gets Twilight Zone and there are only subliminals that show you're crossing over... I feel things are getting wacky enough to make me question if humanity as a whole is crossing Over.
@@bettysue8671 Thanks for your response. I recognize the desperation in your words, and I can't help you. I hope you've had a good and maybe even a long life. I'm 68 and I'm glad I am. I don't have children; I've never needed my driver's license, and I don't have to start over. I can't imagine starting a family, taking a final exam, or having to work endlessly for years to come. Not only that, but I do miss the peace of long ago, the butterflies in the garden, the moon without people on it, and a rustling newspaper instead of the sliding on an iPad. I see a lost world that makes me cry, which I'm partly to blame for, and I really want those missing mosquitoes back on my ceiling. The ones that used to keep me awake during the summer. All the best from the Netherlands.
@@trstquint7114 68? Then you lived through the threat of nuclear Armageddon that never happened.
You lived through the 1950's erroneous claim of reaching peak oil.
You lived through the 1973 energy "crisis" that never materialized.
You lived through the threat of the impending ice age during the 1970's.
You were around when they told us we were all going to perish from starvation by the 1980's because of rising populations.
You lived through Y2K.
Have you learned nothing?
This is a scare story about things you cannot see.
To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC."
Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation.
Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2.
MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021)
The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv.
"Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years.
There is no climate crisis.
The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations.
The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? These models can't even replicate one of the key physical processes, Convection, in ocean currents "because convection is a small-scale process, it is not captured well in most current models (Jackson et al (2023)" (Rahmstorf, 2024). So they can't model Convection. So they can't model ocean currents.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two.
Also the 'Cold Blob' has disappeared from North Atlantic surface temperatures, when annual anomalies for 2013-2023 are compared to the average for the period 1979-2010 (ECMWF ERA5). The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) shows a Sea Surface Temperature departure of over +2°C exactly where the Cold Blob used to be. It may have been there but it's gone. Looking more carefully using NOAA ERSST V5 data for North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (50N-65N, 50W-10W) shows in 1942 a +1°C anomaly declining to -0.7°C in 1992 then rising to almost +1°C in 2010, declining again to -0.6°C in 2010, and of course rising again to +0.75°C in 2023. There are also oscillations in the data back to the 1850s, but there is no trend overall up or down, and no correlation to CO2. The same is true for the heat content in the North Atlantic down to 1000m (Met Office data). No correlation to CO2, just a natural variability. That's the data. The Cold Blob is an artefact.
The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
Once AMOC stops, people run amoc.
long before. sry for your rhyme :) -> economy & social affairs collapse. ppl have fantasy
@@volkerengels5298 Germany has an energy crisis. Multiple crisis are already occurring. Hard to keep track of it all.
@@bettysue8671
When the bot is off-topic... Thx 'Betty'
Esp. those in RED CAPS with GOLD CROSSES on thur necks!
AMOC is an effect of Earths spin ie. a kind of centrifugal force, the fact that it moves warmer water from the bit that is close to the sun to the bit that is far away is a symptom not a cause, they are lying their doodahs off wake up cretins.....
After my own analysis of the data on sea temperatures in Florida available to me I have determined on my own that sea temperatures are indeed rising in much of Florida. This agrees with my anecdotal experience standing in the ocean. There's a serious problem here whether or not we created it is irrelevant We need to adapt to survive
Yes, 84 degrees F. in the southern Gulf of Mexico-- all that heat has to go somewhere--even Ben Franklin saw that!
Significant parts of coastal Florida are sinking because of groundwater extraction.
@ChadKovac it is relevant if we created the problem because we have an obligation to fix if we did.
@travishartman5662 well we didn't do it. So whatever taxes you want to pay, feel free
There is no way we will stay below 2,5 degrees at this point, not happening. Also, politicians don't take anything seriously if the problem extends beyond 3-4 years.
Agreed. Although I think politicians are just a mirror of society - if they don't care, it is because they won't get elected if they do.
Politicians are ANORMOUSLY influenced by "experts" - which usually are people who support our current economical model and don't want even think about changing it (although many economical scientists are amongst those experts - and usually you expect from scientists to do "research" - but exactly this is not don't by classical economical schools - their job seems to be to maintain the current system under any cost).
To think it's mostly a "political" problem is just not accurate. Its a problem that there is absurdly much influence to maintain our economical system from all those who give "advice" to politics.
@@BoothTheGrey Good points. I do also agree with this, in that politicians can easily buy biased research reports that benefit them.
"There is no way we will stay below 2,5 degrees at this point"
It has been below zero for many days where I live. I look forward to some global warming; or if not global, at least local.
@@thomasmaughan4798 Not going to lie, you had me at first
very clear. Ya. We are in trouble
Not even close.
Nonsense, the earths climate is not controlled by humans. We are due a return to full glaciation and co2 and cow farts won’t stop this..
plonker.
We are in trouble because of those gullible fools who never bother to check the long term data and think there is something unusual going on with temperature weather or climate, just because a journalist who is paid to spread the companies propaganda says so.
@@anthonymorris5084depends on your age... I am sorry for my kids.
Only 10K views. We're screwed guys.
Only the intellectually crippled would pay any attention whatsoever to this claptrap propaganda BS! Fortunately most people know what a criminal swindle this whole thing is!
nope
44K when I'm watching this now
"We're screwed guys."
I could hope for that.
@@thomasmaughan4798 You're gullible, that's all. If you got an education you wouldn't have to live in fear...
Where I live on Lake Erie, we have two (turnovers) tipping points per year, one in the spring one in the fall. They’re not related to salinity, but temperature differences between surface and bottom during the spring and fall. These turnovers happen over a period hours or days. In the autumn which is analogous to the AMOC disruption surface water temperatures drop by 10° C and air temperature subsequently follow.
What’s your point?
@@rosemarygrundy3539 Presumably that the presently stable system can change suddenly.
you do not understand what is a tipping point. Have a look to birufacation theory and Catastrophe theory by Arnold (catastraphe theory is a mathematics theory).
@ that “tipping points” are a normal occurrence if you know what you’re looking at.
@@julienriou4511 I studied dynamical systems for 15 years and applied non linear models to animal populations in Ontario parks.
I am afraid the Oligarchs that rule our world do not care about your reports, and will not do what is necessary to help our situation .
They do not even understand it, I guess
@@christiankaiser6562 unfortunately they do understand but just ignore you, as they are blinded by their greed!
Oh they understand it all right.
Who do you think is FUNDING the climate panic ?
Who do you think set up the UNEP and the IPCC ?
The billionaires at the Club of Rome thats who.
Including the owners of Standard Oil the Rockefellers, who are huge doners to global warming extremist groups.
The IPCC was set up by Club of Rome member Maurice Strong, Canadian oil industry multimillionaire and committed communist.
Look at the Gore family, after his father lost his political seat, the Gore family was supported by money laundered in from Armand Hammer. Notorious Soviet business agent in the U.S Stalinist and communist agent of influence.
It was at that time that Al Gore whose career was about dead, suddenly found Global Warming as an issue which revitalized his dying political career.
They do understand what is happening but think they can buy their way out of the crisis by buying up land which they think will not be flooded or effected in anyway. They think they can employ private armies to protect them.
You can call them oligarchs only east from eastern europe. In the West they are called bussinessmen.
This is really worrying. Until now I thought a severe slowdown of the AMOC was a hypothetical scenario that may happen in future centuries. Now I learn we are not only facing the possibility of a sudden and complete collaps of the AMOC, even worse this catastrophic event could be only a few decades down the road.
Hmmm, did the AMOC stop during the last 1500 year peak warming cycle during the Medieval warming ?, it was at least 2 Deg C warmer than now then.
Did it stop during the Roman warming ?, the Minoan Warming ?, or the Holocene Thermal Optimum, 6000 and 8000 years ago ? all were hotter than the Medieval warming.
For most of the last 8000 years it was warmer than now but suddenly the AMOC is likely to stop eh, notice they are talking about COMPUTER MODELS !!!, the output of computer models depends on the factors input to the program.
If you want you can easily programme a computer model to give you the outcome you want .
This is why the IPCC preferred computer models for temperature show at least double the warming we have actually had, they input factors based on the idea that Co2 will have a significant effect on temperature and the model results show VOILA Co2 DOES, and you get exaggerated projected temperatures, input factors that Co2 has only a small effect on temperature at current concentrations and you get model outcomes that show temperature outcomes in line with actual measurements (the Russian model).
After decade upon decade of temperature and climate propaganda that predicts disasters that NEVER happen, i would have thought a rational person would have consulted the ACTUAL long term data and taken programs like this for what they are...PROPAGANDA.
@@peterjones4180
Where I live I can see the glaciers disappearing rapidly.
Skiing resorts are being dismantled due to lack of snow.
The volume of sea ice in the Arctic ocean has fallen some 50% in just 3 decades.
And you claim nothing significant would be going on?!
@@peterjones4180the medieval warm period was not 2° warmer globally though there was some regional warming though not 2°. Nor were the others. Where are you getting your information from?
Brilliant brief summary. Will circulate widely.
The very framing of this issue as climate "change" vastly understates the impending "collapse".
Humanity deserves it anyways.
I think anywone who delays climate change is part of the probelm.
Let's become climate accelerationists.
The climate is always changing. Earth's climate is extremely volatile. The last 10,000 years have been mild but we're due for some corrections and it's going to be a bumpy ride, as it always has been.
🙄 I mean, it's honest wording.
Anthropogenic climate change is still "climate change", you can't destroy climate, there will always be some sort of climate 🤷 in some climates we'd all be dead though.
🙄 I mean, it's honest wording.
Anthropogenic climate change is still "climate change", you can't destroy climate, there will always be some sort of climate 🤷 in some climates we'd all be dead though.
I think it is very possible tmits shutting down.
Northern Europe get out your snow suits. Its going to get cold.
The odd thing about this dilemma is that stopping the use of bunker fuel in shipping has accelerated the change significantly, due to the reduction in cloud cover over the ocean. I'm thinking using bunker fuel in international waters may slow the change.
I am thinking; will this cause an ice age or just wreck our climate norms?
Also, how long does it take to reset? Will it reset, or will a new current develop? What is this going to do to marine life?
Thank you for sharing this presentation on YT. It is fascinating. It already clarified the role, or lack thereof, of the Gulf Stream in relationship to AMOC.
It hasn't clarified anything.
This is a scare story about things you cannot see.
To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC."
Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation.
Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2.
MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021)
The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv.
"Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years.
There is no climate crisis.
The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations.
The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really?
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two.
The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
You have 1K viewers in one day. Mister Beast: 14,3 million in THE SAME TIME!
We are in Idiocracy.
@@trstquint7114 these numbers clearly show why we are where we are now
Sure, but that's 1k adults looking for information vs 14M children (and bots) mindlessly mashing the subscribe button. We should not measure success this way.
Devolution is rife.
You have clearly stated the problem. Well done.
From what I've seen, we have no way to control this situation. We're along for the ride. Everyone loves a good "Create a better world" sales pitch, but nobody thinks about what destroying the current one will look like.
For example, if you go to a poor nation and cut off their fuels, they will cut down the forest to stay warm and cook their food until the forest is gone, which won't take more than a couple years. You can't just make people completely powerless by telling them they can't do this, and to suck it up. They will revolt. Then what, machine gun them all down until you have a population that the forest can support?
People think it's the leaders who are corrupt for not doing anything. The real corruption, is people believing that we can do something, without understanding the horrible unimaginable to them consequences they will have to live with. The titanic crashed and sank because they built a big ship with a rudder too small to maneuver. The thing to understand about the Titanic, was that the worst part of that disaster was that there weren't enough life boats, and the rich didn't want to crowd them.
The best thing for most would be to reduce what we can, and march into catastrophe. Every government solution is framed by a mentality of, "How do we solve this problem and maintain power." If catastrophe is all the same, they will simply choose who gets on a life boat, and proceed to sink the ship. The ship is sinking, and sea level rise won't be your worry soon.
No one claims we are in control of the climate system. But we can create a better society, by doing exactly what you suggest. Ending fossil fuels, and reducing consumption, but also equalizing wealth and resources would be a net benefit for most people. Additionally, the stability which would arise from economic security and healing from environmental protection would provoke a golden age of creativity, connection, and well-being.
The problem is the unwillingness of the wealthy and powerful to admit responsibility and sacrifice their status because of their pathological belief in the inevitability of their superiority, moral desirability of their elevation, and necessity of the current unequal arrangement to expand. They literally believe the economy must grow faster than climate problems, so some amazing combination of technology and innovation will eventually fix the natural world. By this logic, safeguarding the economy, is the only way to protect humans from the climate. They plan to sacrifice the climate for economic growth.
@@Rnankn *This few $$$ppl control 8 Billion?* So that all 8 Billion might go extinct??? Is there anyone sane on the planet? Obviously not.
I wouldn't expect too much...
@@Rnankn"their pathological belief in the inevitability of their superiority" great phrasing! This is the backbone of the rapacious neoliberal economy that dominates the world.Neoliberal economies are diametrically opposed to the solutions of climate change, they are wealth pumps which are extremely difficult to switch off.
@@Rnankn...and what if that economic growth is unsustainable???
@@Rnankn Ending fossil fuels will produce a real life Mad Max world. The modern world, your quality of life, from nutrition to health is fully dependent on inexpensive reliable energy.
Socialism, which is what you're advocating stating "equalizing wealth" has never worked at any time in history, anywhere in the world under anybody's management.
*"because of their pathological belief in the inevitability of their superiority, moral desirability of their elevation,"* Pure hyperbole. I've never met an entrepreneur, investor or business owner in my entire life who could be characterized in this manner. This is pure slander and demonization, almost always stemming from envy.
The human race, in general, is paralyzed, in reversing the exponential damages of 'overshoot.' Gross overpopulation, addiction to over consumption, international and social division, and monetary dependency have rendered us incapable of behaving differently than any other animal can, in circumstances of overshoot. We're in a runaway train with lousy brakes.
If you feel this way, as I do, all that is left is to serve an obligation to live as respectful as possible to other life forms. Love, and preserve what you can, in your everyday life. Be kind, whenever you can find it within yourself.
Phuket, Thailand has a direct line of sight to Antarctica and the ocean was always bracingly cool, even in the middle of hot season w eastern winds. No more, almost Luke warm last year.
"has a direct line of sight to Antarctica"
Oh? On what Flat Earth is that even possible?
The reason Earth is not Venus is her ability to cool. Only question is how fast will the ice age arrive.
And the fun part is that a cooling Europe would give deniers "proof " it's not warming 🤦♀️
If Europe is cooling, then it isn't warming.
You see the thing about deniers is that they dont deny that climate changes and they dont dent that it has warmed.
What they do deny is what has been claimed without justification and rigorous scientific proof.
While we are at it how about YOU tell me
At what atmospheric concentration of Co2 does it create its maximum warming effect ?
You mean like every weather event is evidence of the end of the world?
But it IS changing. Climate changes. That's what it does. If it didn't, the word "climate" would not exist.
"cooling ... it's not warming" Yes.
Humanity is currently in it's: "We are total idiots stage". If this stage does not end we will.
I agree but the long term data says YOU are the idiot.
"Humanity is currently"
Half of all people are below average in intelligence. This has implications for Democracy.
man lived thru ice âgés. here things would cool à bit. woopee.
Anthony Morris is a persistent and ubiquitous troll. Don't engage.
"Anthony Morris is a persistent and ubiquitous troll. Don't engage."
Sometimes it is fun to engage trolls. Sometimes it is fun to be one!
Very interesting and informative.
In the multiverse there is an earth where humans work together to prevent climate change.
Other Earth was older. Its sun was much older and in its death throws making evacuation necessary.
We were advanced to the point of abandoning most trivial technology because we learned to use our minds and hearts to live and communicate.
They sent we pioneers all over the multiverse, hoping we could make it and take root somewhere else.
It was a desperate attempt at survival.
One tiny group made it here, but we suffered massive genetic damage when we crossed through the universal distinction field while being in time lock. Barry said it would happen, but we had to try. We lost many of our strengths and abilities to get here.
The elders retained most of the knowledge, but the very few young could barely comprehend and reembody the old ways. Just learning to live here was a full time endeavor. What we retained became very fragmented and dispersed, and all but forgotten.
It wasn't long before fighting started with our damaged empath circuits and loss of telepathy, and here we are!
This is what I learned of our forefathers by listening to the moon singing. Peace!
EXPLANATION:
Cold water sinks at the north Atlantic down welling point not just because cold water has more density, but because that cold water takes on increased salinity (saltiness from the warm, upper, north bound circulation), and the salinity increases density causing the warm salty water of the upper north bound circulation to become cold and sink to become the southern bound lower cold circulation. This low, cold, southern bound circulation then circulation to the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) and throughout the world. This is called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and is THE down welling point that activated global ocean circulation.
The ice melting in Greenland is dumping cold FRESH WATER with low to no salinity into the down welling point (the "cold blob" into the "AMOC"), not sinking, pushing the warm north bound circulation south in a sense. Sort of stretching out the connection point (down welling point) between the warmer, upper, north bound circulation, and the colder, lower, southern bound circulation. It's like stretching a piece of play dough, taffy or gum, eventually it breaks.
This "cold blob" increasing, because the Greenland freshwater ice is still melting into the north Atlantic, also causes the WARM gulf stream to push west and north to hug the North American east coast even tighter, cutting off it's flow to Ireland, the UK, west Europe, and Scandanavia, and possibly causing increased cooling there.
Paleoclimate proxy data, has also demonstrated how in the past when the AMOC shut down, the tropical rain belt shifted southward, probably related to the northern end of the upper, warm, high salinity circulation, also moving south, due to increased cooling in the north. Then the cooling of the north Atlantic was caused by a southern expansion of ice, now it's cause by melting of the ice in Greenland due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 (a greenhouse gas that traps exiting solar radiation in the atmosphere) with 12C and 13C isotopes, with the SAME ISOTOPIC RATIOS FOUND IN PLANTS, BUT WITH NO PROPORTIONAL INCREASE IN RADIOACTIVE 14C... BECAUSE IT IS CAUSED BY ANCIENT PLANTS WHERE THE RADIOACTIVE ISOTOPES HAVE DECAYED....aka fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels (mainly coal) are why we start seeing all the data of warming and other related changes begin not long after the start of THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
Nuclear testing messed up findings for a bit by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels also, but after the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963 scientists began seing "a decrease" in radioactive 14C, which was actually an increase in 12C and 13C from the continued release of 12C and 13C from fossil fuels.
"Nuclear testing messed up findings for a bit by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels also"
Why, exactly, does nuclear testing increase atmospheric CO2?
That's right, we have run out of time.
As this is something that has been said on a regular basis for at least fifty years and NEVER HAPPENEDS, when the data of projected disaster comes due i will just stick with what the long term data says thanks.
The long term data says nothing unusual is happening with temperature, weather, climate, rate of sea level movement at all for our current interglacial, NOTHING.
Run out of time for Amoc, not the permafrost or the ice sheets tipping points.
"we have run out of time."
I still have 45 minutes!
Tipping points between 1.5 - 2.5 C warming. Problem : calculated from 1750 temps we are at 2C already.
That, and the underestimated models, and what is still unknown.
Tipping points RUBBISH we had temperatures of 2 Deg C MORE than now during the Medieval warming, prior to the Little Ice Age, warmer than that during the Roman, Minoan warmings and the Holocene Thermal Optimum 6000-8000 years ago.
The 1.5 Deg C figure is and always was just a bit of propaganda from the IPCC.
The professor who provided that figure (from the Potsdam Institute surprise surprise) in a later interview told the truth, that is the IPCC approached him for a figure to use for their propaganda , he told them such a figure would be scientifically meaningless , but they insisted so he just plucked 1.5 Deg C out of the air.
It shouldnt surprise you that a former communist institute in East Germany is happy to take the climate funding.
10 degrees increase i would say...
This is our planet's heartbeat and its slowing!
My bet is that in twenty years the AMOC will not have shut down.
I have been listening to similar claims sinct the 1970s AND IT NEVER HAPPENS.
And if we have reached the tipping point already….whose gonna say? Storm surge flooding on the Gulf Coast of Florida from Hurricane Helene took many long time coastal residents by surprise… could sea level be rising faster on the East Coast of North America already due to the slowing down of AMOC?
Yes
@@BufordTGleason fact, this is what Stefan says and what you can see in the charts that tipping point has already been reached.
Just look at the weather, that says it all. The weather is ( pardon my choice of words ) is fucked it's out of balance completely.
@@dr.hugosperber4473 Rubbish the long term data says you are wrong !.
@@The_War_Report No looking at the weather says all is NORMAL !
Our weather, temperature and climate are ALL within normal long term variability for our current interglacial.
The long term data makes that VERY clear.
Whats out of balance is your ability to function in this society, you clearly dont realize how much you are deceived and flat out lied to in the media.
Which is clearly where you get your perspective from.
Our meteorological history records show you are wrong egregiously wrong.
It has been known for two weeks that there are no significant disturbances. It was a measurement error by the sensors in the Atlantic.
they don't care....
can you share the source for this? seems pretty crucial
@@jadeed14 i think: Volkov, D.L., Smith, R.H., Garcia, R.F. et al. Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state.
The UK & Northern Europe will likely start experiencing continental winters like Chicago or Moscow and Central Europe will likely become another tornado alley.
"And with that, we have run out of time" - Hildigunnur Thorsteinsson
3:28 Starts here
If "we" decided to act with purpose as humanity, how much salt would need to be added annually to the AMOC flow up near the cold blob?
Now that's the spirit!
Let's fight back!
Probably take a team of 72 scientists 11.6 years and cost 2.3 billion dollars and 157,000 tons of c02 emissions to give you a ballpark estimate...
But at least those scientists get to go on a nice long tax payer funded vacation....Oops scientific research expedition!
The climate is crashing whether or not we caused it is irrelevant The point is we need to adapt to survive at this point
I wouldn't say irrelevant, but it is inevitable at this point. We still need to stop doing what we're doing, stop ignoring the signs, and stop buying in to fixes that are sold to profit off the awareness. Adaptation of a warmer world will be difficult but unavoidable, but it's the rarest thing discussed. We are a species of procrastination.
@@rhaedas9085 Really adaption to a warmer world difficult ?
Well was it difficult to adapt to a 2 Deg C warmer world only around 1000 years ago during the Medieval Warm Period, or the Roman Warm period, or the Minoan Warm Period, or the Holocene Thermal Optimum 6000-8000 years ago ?
Its not the warm periods that are a problem but the COOLINGS look at life after the slide from the Medieval Warming into the Little Ice Age.
The planet will warm and cool in line with its natural cycles, best to hope that we are adding some warmth
to the globe in spite of the fact that if we are we cannot currently tell as the amount is smaller than the margin of error in the normal temperature fluctuations.
@@peterjones4180 Oh, it seems you are completely detached from reality.
Go and inform yourself before posting.
@@hg6996 Not only am i EXTREMLY well informed, but suspect that i speak to far more scientists that have been lead authors for the IPCC scientific reports than YOU do.
How about you list everything i posted you think is factually incorrect.
I dare you.
I will be happy to educate you.
@@peterjones4180 Well, you are free to believe whatever you want.
My impression is that you took the opportunity not to learn anything about the ongoing man made climate change.
Your choice.
But in case you are really as well informed as you are saying then enjoy the money you are receiving from the fossil fuel industry.
Seems to be an attractive source of income.
In 2023, greenhouse gas emissions set a new global record of 57.1 gigatons (CO2eq) last year, a 1.3 per cent increase from 2022 levels. (2024 UN Emissions Gap Report)
Earth will cross the two degrees warming by the middle of the century.
I am glad to be old so I won't witness it when the s**t hits the fan.
@hg6996
That consolation only works if you don't have a stake in the future ie. You don't have children!
Otherwise knowing what your children are going to have to face caused by your generation will give you no peace in death
We were around 2 LAST YEAR
we soared past 1.5
@@hg6996 With the next El Nino, Sir.
@@graemeguy341 I don't have children.
I wonder why the Gulf-stream would stop (even if it gets a fresh water effect from the north) not just be averted to a more southern path. And even if it would stop I wonder why that would also stop the transfer of the heat from the south to the north in the Atlantic Ocean. Would this transfer not remain just in a dfiferent, more dispersed way (not as clustered, directed, integrated as in the Gulf-stream)? Does someon have an answer or idea about these problems?
*AMOC There has been amoc_behavior in the past - that's the reference. As far as proxys can tell.
Exactly, nothing to see here but abject fear porn.
What a fun time to be a farmer in Europe
Consequences are at 14:38
Stopped listening at reference to the Paris agreement, which was a distraction to continue business as usual..+ 1.5c is behind us
We were around a 2 LAST YEAR
Might be a social and political issue to be careful with..?
@DementiaDon Let's rock'n roll in the bus? :))
Yes, we hear the experts repeat the same facts, the same warnings - and the politicians react by committing to worthlessly small projects, while still allowing those industries that do the 'real' damage to continue doing as they have always done.
The most worthy work is being done by charities or individuals who struggle hard to raise enough money from an increasingly impoverished public to plant trees and clean waterways.
Governments could help them achieve an impact ten times greater with money they throw away on useless ambition and self promotion (for example the £60,000 of taxpayer's money spent by a UK minister on vanity photographs. Think what good all that money could have done).
In a way I hope the cold spot bang next door to the British Isles might turn out to be a very good 'wake up call' for our environmentalist-hating Prime Minister - or at least for the people that voted for him.
@@Debbie-henri Industrialized Countries cheat for good/bad reasons. You're a brit - having not recognized that the whole EU shifting far_right while the US goes full fascist? Plz NO
All Countries tries to pay climate change with tax-money. That's intended suicide.
Charming Charities like to be effed for the sake in heaven later...?
Well known pattern. The effect for climate is zero. Planting trees for instance is a bullshit idea. All you get is trouble with maintainance. You know - the water....
It takes 20 - 30 years for them to be mature - and *start* seriously 'working'
We don't have time anymore, my friend.
IMO, it is simple: AMOC is weaken, less heat is transferred by the ocean current, then it has to be transferred by something else: atmosphere. But it is less efficient so it has to be more violent.
Correct, James Hanson has been saying this for decades.
Consider this atmosphere contributing factor that appears to have crossed the trigger point of its hysteresis curve:
CONTEXT: Stranded by a blizzard in my bilevel house, installed an airtight wood stove in the basement, which got very hot, while the upstairs stayed cold. Using the smoke of incense to see the air flow, found a "thermal barrier at the bottom of the stairs. The cold air at the bottom was rising as the hot air of the basement was dropping with inefficient exchange heat (no moisture exchange) or attenuation (side note, vortexes would in the barrier from top to bottom).
The solution was cutting a hole in the floor for a grate for convection to break the thermal barrier. Both the basement and upstairs instantly got hot and water on the stove worked to moisten the dried air. (Dated late 1970s)
Coincidences: a missionary child early 1960s around the world by ship & 3 years 2 months sea duty was watching SV Delos crossing the Pacific for a 2nd trip around the world approaching the "doldrums" near the equator had images of glass smooth water the 1st trip, while this trip had "squall city".
With eclectic interests, RUclips recommended a video on "global air flow", which showed the 3 nodes from the equator to the pole. Named after the person that discovered them. Starting with the hot moist air at the equator rising, crossing the node to drop as the hot air of my basement did, transferring heat to the other side of the barrier rising to cross the 2nd node. SV CALICO SKIES, a companion vessel was delayed because of health issues (I shared this with them to share) they and others got across the doldrums as fast as they could motor as others had serious challenges.
Being globally aware, hypothesize that the meeting between the nodes have been acting "as the thermal barrier in my house" allowing rapid shifting of heat and moisture to the poles, displacing the cold. The evidence are the extreme changes from hot to cold with greater amounts of water.
The vectors caused by our rotating ball with changing velocity of movement across different circumferences is going require significant adjustments to the models.
SUMMARY: With the thermal barrier in my house working as a hysteresis curve is improbable to return to a temperature difference to trigger back to creating the thermal barrier again.
Therefore, industries "CONTROL" of the genetic food engineering will no longer be appropriate for this new climate and the future of humanity, at best, will be an endangered species or extinct 🤔
Navy 🇺🇸 veteran AMD AVIONICS HELICOPTER CREWMAN (defending freedom of religion-RIGHT!), (all bridges of trust burned by inquisition demonized slandered shunned for doing Native American Sweatlodges, in 10th year of solitude) missionary child of an educator, NDEs, witness
Who among the commenters here has committed to never flying in an airplane again? The truth is that *no-one* wants to pay the price for a stable climate.
No car. No kids. Worth about 1000 flights at least. Point is, as good as it feels to do something, without everyone and everything changing drastically, it's all drops in the ocean.
@@richardallan2767 See? Denial, and bargaining. No-one wants to pay the price.
@gregvanpaassen I said no car no kids.
@gregvanpaassen having one fewer child saves 58.6 metric tons co2 each year. , a flight works out at 2000 to 5000kg per passenger, so let's say 5000kg. That means having a kid is the same as 11.72 intercontinental flights each year. You have kids?
No car, no flights, no ferries, vacation by bike, no meat, no fast fashion, no fast food.
But I am sure that the fact I am consuming energy to post this comment disqualifies me...?
Just testing. Will delete later. ty.
Funny how the first guy addressed the serverity of global warming. But did not ask the industry that is causing global warming to pay to Fix It.😊
Because it's the consumer causing it. Nobody is forcing you to purchase fossil fuels. It's provided because there is a demand.
"But did not ask the industry that is causing global warming to pay to Fix It.😊"
Pay WHOM? How will it fix it? What is your proof that it will fix it?
Maybe it’s just me, but as I understand it, the size of the „cold blob“ is not related to how warm the climate is absolutely, but to the speed of how fast it gets warmer? So as long as we slow the climate warming down, we would be fine regarding AMOC breakdown, no matter how far this slower climate warming would lead us in the end?
adhd is needing to listen to this guy at 1.5x
We are not seeing any of that increased rain in the Midwestern US the last three years.
a rier hotter NA is predicted- a lot of lectures discuss the expected changes in NA
Save Our Planet
its NOT about "saving the planet" - its about saving OUR SOCIETY!
If by the diplomatic clout of the Nordic Council of Ministers he meant to suggest they're utter dregs, perpetually bent over and ready to serve every wish of the US establishment then he's got his expectations set just about right.
I hope everyone watching this and who is scared and worried has started acting accordingly.
Quit flying, massive reduction of animal products consumption, massive reduction of gasoline usage and individual motorized transportation, and stopping buying things you don't need.
Reality is, everyone is somehow worried and scared, but a real behaviour shift is missing.
And adaption is not an option. Plants and humans had many thousand years to adapt on local condition. Those who think we can adapt within 40 years are real fools.
Noone seems to have realized, that it's the End times, as Jesus predicted. Seems the entire world is sleeping and was not ready for his second coming 🤷🏼♀️
What a load of bollocks.
Your post has no relevance to the real world at all, Its like listening to a Scientologist extoll the virtues of taking a personality test.
There is NOTHING unusual happening with our weather, temperature or climate AT ALL, they are TOTALLY within long term variability for our current interglacial.
Clearly you havent bothered to consult the long term data but are simply a gullible believer in a religious sense.
Thank you. Responding to attempts to silence scientists:
Scientists and doctors are also private citizens. When there's a 100% consensus on a body of scientific findings that finds that the public is in peril, as citizens they have a right and a duty to warn. They may not have the expertise to decide *which* public policy is best, but to question the ethics of raising awareness of an eminent danger is in itself unethical.
The trouble is those who are alert to the science are not the ones making decisions on human response. And are far,far too nice,polite and passive to insist that those in power act.Hell, most don't even get involved in protest movements
Warmer Iceland means thinner ice sheets. Keeping less pressure on those big dangerous shield volcanoes. A knock-on effect being more regular disruptive eruptions affecting air travel and air quality. A catch-22 situation that will just get worse over time.
You mean Greenland.
@@josefleitl2857 Is Greenland full of shield volcanoes? I mean ICELAND.
No mention of the Beaufort Gyre?
Pretty sure is is - the fish spiciest in the Danish waters have become more strange
Species
@@mnp3713 No spicy fish in Danish waters?
@@nicolasuribestanko 😋
...perhaps we should deploy a fleet of floating heat pumps for electricity to pull the heat out of the current and dump salt off Greenland, something to try while we fry
I guess two questions. Will Ireland be colder than today or colder in relation to future warming but warmer than today?
Also, there is no significant meridional overturning in the North Pacific. Why is the warm Japanese strong enough to keep northwestern America relatively mild and warm for its latitude without the overturning where the Atlantic Gulf Stream will not keep the northwest part of Europe mild?
@grindupBaker sounds like higher energy bills and higher prices for food, also no doubt. Hence, more political strife.
Narrator: They increased carbon and methane emissions instead
And produced lots of value for their shareholders! 🥳
10:37 when he mentions the melt water from greenland...what do you think about that?
That is the entire point of the AMOC topic.
Melting ice from Greenland dumps fresh, low salinity, water into the sea. This slows the down welling and pushes the warm upper, north moving circulation more south. It also pushed the gulf stream more to the west, wealing it's warming effect on western Europe, Ireland, the UK and Scandanavia.
And apparently the freaking IPCC wasn't even taking the melt water into account so therefore in essence weren't seriously taking the AMOC issue into account.
That is the entire point of the AMOC topic.
Melting ice from Greenland dumps fresh, low salinity, water into the sea. This slows the down welling and pushes the warm upper, north moving circulation more south. It also pushed the gulf stream more to the west, wealing it's warming effect on western Europe, Ireland, the UK and Scandanavia.
And apparently the freaking IPCC wasn't even taking the melt water into account so therefore in essence weren't seriously taking the AMOC issue into account.
we are at or approaching a critical desalinization point.
closer than we think as with most climate/warming changes this is also going to happen faster than we can handle.
Hey, what if we didn’t allow anyone to own weather modifying technology like stratospheric aerosol injection that is slowing the AMOC while also owning mining permits, redevelopment plans or government penchants? Just a thought.
"what if we didn’t allow anyone to own weather modifying technology"
Who is WE?
Everyone collectively affected by weather modifying technology on the planet. Call it a coop to regulate and enforce the tech and property rights. As it is what the Nutrino Ice Cube is doing violates all kinds of treaties in Antarctica.
Are we in the day after tomorrow?
It’s unreal for me to realize how 90% of the population does not see what’s coming
It's unreal for me to realize that after 44 years people are still preaching the mantra: "Just you wait, it's going to be bad, you'll see". Repeat decade after decade in perpetuity.
Because we have too many idiots like Anthony.
@@anthonymorris5084 yeah well it’s the most complex system we know so these things take time but the data is proving to be true
@@everythingmatters6308 Infantile tantrums and insults are not an argument. Do better.
@@Muddslinger0415 Except that the data is proving that we're safe. Please enlighten me, what data?
Magnetic poles are shifting, nothing can be done to stop it.
They didn't build underground bunkers for nothing.
The Absolute Best the Government Debt can buy.
S.c. Nordic countries own a tiny portion of the Arctic. This sudden interest is inspired by something Sub-Arctic.
"sudden interest"? In the AMOC? This isn't sudden at all, it's an old topic.
And it implies a specific change in the climates of the Nordic countries, along with Ireland, the UK and western Europe because of clod run off pushing the warm upper current south and the gulf stream east.
"sudden interest"? In the AMOC? This isn't sudden at all, it's an old topic.
And it implies a specific change in the climates of the Nordic countries, along with Ireland, the UK and western Europe because of clod run off pushing the warm upper current south and the gulf stream east.
Conflicting and Confusing - how to measure (d)T'c(x,y)/t(s)
imagine 100000 tiny balls - in 4 types as in 4 depths
all provided with a pinger - that sends block[1]=dwd:ball_id + block[2]=dt:time + block[3]=dwd:temp measured
dropped at entry location - picked up at ext location (if even found)
the data is picked up . . processed and graphed.
Earth will be fine, it's ourselves that needs saving.
How in the hell are you defining "Earth".
You can not face the destruction of most of a sphere, the biosphere, and say "Earth will be fine".
How in the hell are you defining "Earth".
You can not face the destruction of most of a sphere, the biosphere, and say "Earth will be fine".
so, No need to keep on applying for schengen tourist visa and get rejected each time..
Don't worry. The Diapered Don 🦨 is going to make it all better. He'll draw a map of where he told the current to go.
Any place safe from climate boiling? NZ will get hotter, Oz uninhabitable, SG like Texas, Texas a jungle, CA like Italy - and Europe back to 1315?
no place is unaffected.
Cold Blob is gone so undercuts the whole case...
Presumably will return but we can reset the clock
⏰ 🏃♀️
Why does the current go straight through Cuba?
We can do nothing, but let's alarm and create fear
We can absolutely do something about it. We're causing it by GHG emissions.
Fear may create action.
In fact, although they are still very reluctant to do very much worth doing, politicians in a very few countries have started to indulge in financing some small projects.
Last year (or maybe it's ongoing, I don't know), you could sponsor tree planting for free through Microsoft's weather app. So that's one major contributor to climate change that is doing at least a very minor thing.
Public pressure has started to 'force' a few forestry industries to replant with mixed natives alongside forestry species.
Then there's Ocean CleanUp. Okay, so that is a private concern for now, but as things get steadily worse, governments will start to realise its contribution - and with the initial experimentation already done, the template for working vehicles and satisfactory collection now in place, it is only a matter of replicating the set-up in multiple places across the worst affected areas in the world's oceans.
Similar machines/ideas work in a few rivers across the world, stopping trash from reaching the oceans in the first place. Again, at least some of these have been designed and tested by individuals who have sought public funding.
Then there is plastic - a very few companies are responding and changing their packaging. It is 'up to us' to favour those companies that do change, and nag/reject those that don't.
Then there is the very great impact that each of us with a garden can have on the environment. This is an area where I think there is a great deal of ignorance, especially among many in the West, and a growing number in other countries that like to copy Western habits.
Mowing - totally unnecessary, a waste of fuel, a waste of resources to create machines that are manufactured to become increasingly short-lived (to the point that many think it is normal to buy a new Flymo every year). If people were to return to cottage garden styles, incorporating native species among their beloved ornamentals, then we could all create havens for wild species, creating 'highways' for insects and birds through human-inhabited areas.
(There is a good organisation in Pennsylvania called the Homegrown National Park trying to promote wildlife gardening. Other gardeners from other US states have also shown an interest in registering their gardens, but my personal opinion is that the organisers should make this a blueprint project for the rest of the world.
Governments worldwide could encourage this form of gardening and 'tick' this box for environmental impact at the same time - at very little cost to themselves - by promising homeowners that comply that an environment-based mower/garden licence/tax would be waived if gardeners committed to No-Mow, No-Spray, and planted at least 20% native plants in their gardens. Basically, you would be tax-free for going green in your own garden.
Wildlife gardening, and obeying certain rules with what you do in your garden - like not filling it with scrap and turning it into a slab of concrete/gravel, would be enormously beneficial to the world's health, given how many gardens there must be in the world, and how much acreage they must represent.
We can still currently do something, but governments must get serious and force state and private energy sectors to change.
We can still currently do something, but governments must get serious and force state and private energy sectors to change.
The collapse of the AMOC could be beneficial to reduce the rate of global warming for the following reasons: 1. It could help to reduce albedo loss associated with the reduction of the arctic sea ice currently at 0.5watts/m2. 2. It could stabilize the greenland ice sheet, 3. stabilize the weakening polar vortex and prevent further northward shift, 4. prevent permafrost thaw 5. stabilize Boreal forest degradation, 6. prevent methyl clathrate thaw and 7. preserve the equator-arctic temperature differential.
But without the AMOC that removes heat to bring it to Europe, the South East US coast will be much hotter. Do you get what it means?? In terms of heat waves, of storms, of high TW (at 35°C TW humans die !).
You don't understand what you are stating mate !
@@franckr6159 We have to look at the big picture as catastrophe can no longer be averted and we have to reduce the net radiative forcing/energy imbalance as much as is possible to alleviate the worst case scenario.... I believe we are overlooking pertinent ways of natural climate regulation.... Regardless some regions will become uninhabitable.
@grindupBaker Anthropology is my favorite topic. I've already responded to you. Why did you delete it? Did you not like my answer? I love reason backed by data how about you? Do you also read papers published in Nature and Science on a daily basis?
@@samuelsoroaster416 It's not a "pertinent ways of natural climate regulation" (the "natural" regulation is precisely when AMOC brings heat to cold areas, which makes the planet more habitable). Listening to climate scientists, they don't consider it could bring any benefit, on the contrary, they state that it would be detrimental to fishes and that Europe would get more extreme events both in summer and winter.
And on top the fact that tropical areas would retain more heat, hence become unlivable, which millions of people that would be mass-migrating.
@@franckr6159 The data is clear for those who have the ability to see the big picture... How does anyone explain the 1 C cooling during the Younger Dryas? i know what i'm talking about.
It's all because of the Panama Canal. Rather, it is because ever since the construction of the Panama Canal, the regular circulatory pattern is being disrupted. 🤔.
That's the dumbest shit I've ever heard.
It is because the melting of low salinity, fresh water off of Greenland.
That's the dumbest shit I've ever heard.
It is because the melting of low salinity, fresh water off of Greenland.
Earth's magnetic connection to the Sun allows in more solar energy which affects the weather.
Solar energy POURS into the northern and southern pole regions.
Too soft.
With so much at stake, this needs more than a letter. I know not what but it feels like these words are simply destined to get lost in the wind.
My suggestion to you sport is that when a scientist says , the models say this and this may happen, hold onto your wallet, and look to the past to see how many times such statements turned out to be correct in the long term.
I myself are still waiting to find one since 1977.
@@peterjones4180
This is exactly why scientists speak in terms of trends usually, and most of the time they do not make adamant statements. They point to "what the evidence suggests".
And most of the time they are correct in their assessment of forecasting general trends.
@@peterjones4180
This is exactly why scientists speak in terms of trends usually, and most of the time they do not make adamant statements. They point to "what the evidence suggests".
And most of the time they are correct in their assessment of forecasting general trends.
@@whatabouttheearth Really, then you need to look at some of their public statements.
You will find that there are many scientists that make public statements often not in line with their own published paper.
Look at the responses on this page, most of them walked away confident that the AMOC is going to stop !
That was the WHOLE purpose of this piece of political theater.
Ignore joule heating of the ionosphere.
Tax us more.
The great climate swindle rolls on.
"Is the AMOC Shutting Down?"
No (Betteridge's Law of Headlines)
revolution!
If AMOC shuts down and Europe gets cold, how much CO2 would Europe need to produce to pull through this crisis, and get warm enough again?
This is precisely the current warming (driven by our CO2 emissions) that is triggering the AMOC slow down, so I wouldn't add even more CO2 !!
And if Europe finally cools down it means that AMOC will not be moving heat from Florida to Europe and instead leave the heat near the US coast: do you get what it means for the USA?
@@franckr6159 so what would be the smartest move for Europe after AMOC have shut down and it got cold? Staying cold, or getting warmer again by producing large amounts of carbon dioxide? What would be the best choice the Europeans could make in this situation, the best choice for themselves, not for US-Americans?
@@peterp5099 Adding even more CO2 would be good for NOBODY ! Not USA, not even Europe as if the tropical areas warm more and faster than currently expected it means that these regions will soon become UNLIVABLE, just check the effect on human beings of a wet temperature reaching 35°C (humans die after a few hours). See this paper: "The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance" by Colin Raymond et al. (in Science Advances). Which means that some 3 Billions of people will try to migrate to colder areas (Europe), guess what will happen: chaos and deadly wars.
Conclusion: like it or not we have no other choice than strongly reducing our CO2 emissions ASAP !
@@franckr6159 but I’m not speaking of now, I’m speaking of a time after AMOC crashed and Europe got cold. Wouldn’t increasing CO2 output be the way for Europe to get livable living conditions again after the end of AMOC made it unlivable cold?
@@peterp5099 Again: NO.
A continent alone cannot gain when the entire world around collapses and fall into chaos and wars. Only narrow-minded people can think this way.
Which part of the world would be affected the least. Is this a northern hemisphere problem.
Stefan Rahmstorf's talk starts at ruclips.net/video/k0FUZKQhU6U/видео.htmlsi=B-0pLbrTm7TBhqdN&t=197
Advertisement for “meat sticks” in the middle of this.
18:18 Tldr: No beef, oil and profit.
The global oligarchs can consume one another
If this is already happening, then we are already decades too late stop.
Is the effect of geoengineering factored into development of these models and the whole climate change research? Since 1950's the Earth atmosphere was affected by various impacts (nuclear bomb testing, spraying various chemicals into the sky undrer various gov programmes as recorded in print and media). The weather modification programmes have been in full effect for decades. Do you have any research papers that investigate the effect of these programmes? Or are the researchers paid to avoid this topic in general??
Heres the solution, North Sea oil has to have brine...release it into north sea, will bring salinity back...I can even calculate how much brine to dump....theres brine here in Merica we can ship ya
forget it, even in a hundred years you can put enough salt in this system to keep it running stably.
Apart from the fact that it will fail because of three problems: too expensive, not provitable and too many Americans who don't give a damn.
looks like these models haven’t taken solar activity and weakening magnetic field into account...
They also haven't taken the position of the planets and the speed of galactic rotaion into account - guess why.
When AMOC shuts down, our problem will not be too much heat, but an ice age. Look at the previous cycles.
Nah, it will merely counteract the net warming that already is happening in the northern hemisphere. Summers will be hotter, winters colder. Ice age wont happen.
The Ice Ages, which are simply an expansion of the polar ice (not "snowball"/"slushball" earth) shut down AMOC due to cooling of the northward circulation and pushing it south. That doesn't lead to Ice Ages if your not already in an Ice Age because how would it cause an increase of polar ice itself. It shuts down lower oceanic cool circulation.
The Ice Ages, which are simply an expansion of the polar ice (not "snowball"/"slushball" earth) shut down AMOC due to cooling of the northward circulation and pushing it south. That doesn't lead to Ice Ages if your not already in an Ice Age because how would it cause an increase of polar ice itself. It shuts down lower oceanic cool circulation.
So let me ask you this, this blob is being caused by a chemocline/thermocline situation. Could we not artificially stir the water at the blobs barriers to force salinity into the blob to allow the cool water to sink, because cold is going to sink as long as it has the required salinity to do so. Look, if we made this mess, lets take a bunch of salt and pour it into this region and stir the pot to bring about the necessary equilibrium. The thermocline itself is solved by solving the situation created by the chemocline as heat naturally rises and cold naturally sinks, so instead of saying we can't do anything about this, lets stir it up and fix this problem ourselves shall we.
Have you any idea how big the machines to stir it would have to be? It would be such a big project - and who pays for it? You think the increasingly impoverished British public would stand another tax rise? All of Europe? You think America would want to chip in with a few trillion on top of its debt?
Let's ask China, since their filthy industrial practices and the mass production of so much obsolescent rubbish is at least partially responsible for this.
Let's ask India for their contribution, since they are contributing industrially too.
How about asking those countries who contribute by continuous overpopulating, and unable to support the mass of people they create, they release them on the rest of the world to become their burden.
Or do you think everyone will kindly chip in? Russia? North Korea? Half the Middle East who don't give a rat if Britain freezes over?
Yeah, we all know who will want to make the (substandard) machines, but no one will want to finance them..