Investing Backtests That Make Me Sad

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  • Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
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Комментарии • 1,3 тыс.

  • @benjjjaamiinn
    @benjjjaamiinn  2 года назад +129

    Subscribe to The Daily Upside!
    bit.ly/35DQMp1

  • @ChengTeoh
    @ChengTeoh 2 года назад +3750

    Prediction : One of those 1.6% of people age 13-17 watching Benjamin's video is going to have a million dollar portfolio ... after starting out with a portfolio of a billion dollar that is.

    • @ihavenoidea1
      @ihavenoidea1 2 года назад +105

      "Not looking at you Hwang"

    • @jaysinghfilms4816
      @jaysinghfilms4816 2 года назад +6

      Hehehehe

    • @GIaucoma
      @GIaucoma 2 года назад +20

      I’ll take those odds

    • @abn10000000000
      @abn10000000000 2 года назад +56

      Reminds me of the old joke easiest way to become a millionaire is to be a billionaire and buy an airline

    • @kaputasri
      @kaputasri 2 года назад +2

      Fastest path to be a millionaire lol

  • @kortyEdna825
    @kortyEdna825 2 месяца назад +1232

    I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $1m+ before retirement, I'm 55.

    • @KaurKhangura
      @KaurKhangura 2 месяца назад +4

      Those sound like great picks! consider financial advisory so you don’t keep switching it up, top 3 payers for the month were $OHI, $KMI, and $EDP... not bad for 350k

    • @foden700
      @foden700 2 месяца назад +2

      You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 14.3%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an advisor.

    • @brucemichelle5689.
      @brucemichelle5689. 2 месяца назад +2

      I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisers online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?

    • @foden700
      @foden700 2 месяца назад

      Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

    • @brucemichelle5689.
      @brucemichelle5689. 2 месяца назад +1

      Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

  • @drob9673
    @drob9673 2 года назад +2145

    Another healthy dose of hopelessness from Benjamin. Dude I love you!

  • @Armstrong741
    @Armstrong741 9 дней назад +310

    I currently have a $280k stock portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and QQQ overlap too much to make sense holding both?

    • @RobbStonee
      @RobbStonee 9 дней назад +4

      The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) do have some overlap, especially with large-cap tech stocks, but they also have significant differences.Holding both can provide diversification benefits, balancing broader market exposure with a heavier tech focus. just get yourself an advisor!

    • @ScottStraw
      @ScottStraw 9 дней назад +3

      No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 Next year.

    • @Tnks4cmin
      @Tnks4cmin 9 дней назад +3

      Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.

    • @ScottStraw
      @ScottStraw 9 дней назад +2

      *Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

    • @Marquez919
      @Marquez919 9 дней назад +1

      Searched the web and saw her profile and accreditations, someone with great experience I must say, thanks!

  • @murphykeller5711
    @murphykeller5711 2 года назад +196

    Benjamin- I haven’t even watched the video yet, but I already know you forgot to include lunar cycles into whatever models or back tests you have created. BUY THE FULL SELL THE CRESCENT

    • @murphykeller5711
      @murphykeller5711 2 года назад +13

      HAHAHAHA 4:30 proving me wrong. You did not disappoint

    • @lylyscuir
      @lylyscuir 2 года назад +6

      Wait, do I sell the waning crescent or the waxing crescent?

    • @ishtar0077
      @ishtar0077 2 года назад +1

      🤣

    • @aprofessionalateverything7585
      @aprofessionalateverything7585 2 года назад +4

      @@lylyscuir depends on your sign and whether mercury was in retrograde I think

    • @rogehmarbi
      @rogehmarbi 2 года назад +2

      @@aprofessionalateverything7585 I'm a Pisces should I sell when the moon is visible or if its behind the clouds?

  • @flapjackmollases9633
    @flapjackmollases9633 2 года назад +45

    When I first found your channel, I was not a fan of your videos because of your cynical approach to everything. Now, after being in the market for 18 months, I realized that your videos are absolutely necessary to help keep my expectations in line and trade like I should rather than getting bogged down in all of the chatter and hype.

    • @user-zv5ym2dr3q
      @user-zv5ym2dr3q 2 года назад

      Hit me up I have cryptoTrading updates???

  • @martinerJuhel1
    @martinerJuhel1 Год назад +1391

    Despite the fact that I invest, I am saddened by my inability to evaluate each company's performance and determine whether or not this is the ideal time to purchase stocks. My monetary stockpile is being depleted by inflation. At this stage, I need accurate market trajectory data, but I'm not sure what to do.

    • @EvanQuiel4
      @EvanQuiel4 Год назад +5

      Particularly in this weak market, there are several opportunities to generate excellent returns, but such intricate transactions can only be carried out by seasoned market professionals. I suggest you get yourself a portfolio coach

    • @martinerJuhel1
      @martinerJuhel1 Год назад +3

      @@EvanQuiel4 I've been thinking about going that route. I've been holding onto a lot of stocks, but they're starting to lose value, and I'm not sure if I should retain them or sell them. I think hiring your investment coach would help me restructure my portfolio.

    • @rockfire1669
      @rockfire1669 Год назад +3

      Personally I search for stocks that have averaged out on being on the lower side(just seeing red for like 2-4 weeks) and also make sure the stock is some really relevant company (Walmart, Costco, Nissan, etc.) and then just buy, it will go up sooner or later (probs later) (not an official financial advisor)

    • @rockfire1669
      @rockfire1669 Год назад

      This also under the assumptions you just intake news btw.

    • @geepadoodle
      @geepadoodle Год назад

      @@martinerJuhel1 all you can do is hold

  • @Davdingue
    @Davdingue 2 года назад +64

    Still so amazed by your style of video. This complex content with such simplicity and the legendary edit with smooth sponsorship is pure gold to watch. Can’t count the laughs on this channel, and love it as a finance dude. Thank you boss

  • @jurado1010
    @jurado1010 2 года назад +120

    The fact that there are comments about this video being good within 3 minutes of it being posted perfectly encapsulates how easy it is to get the WSB crowd to ape into the most random stock as soon as they see that a long DD post about it got some upvotes and 2 free awards.

  • @agedvagabond
    @agedvagabond 2 года назад +43

    I spent a lot of time backtesting automated technical strategies and honestly even now that my manual technique produces results the better I do lately the more I wonder if my setups really have the edge i think or if it was just psychological strength that I developed over time to cut losses, press winners, manage drawdowns and if the setups just provide me the conviction to stick with winners...I found out recently this has been a debate for many years.
    At the end of the day if you can win 50% of the time at about 1.2R then u basically have the ability to generate insane returns... Then, the better those stats get the more insane the returns and it becomes a bit like printing money depending how much liquidity affects your system and what time frame you trade, edge really doesn't have to be overwhelmingly big if you manage your trades properly but most people can't even manage themselves and I think that's why ultimately it's so hard to do.

    • @shin-jo2801
      @shin-jo2801 2 года назад +9

      yessir ! a lot of people cannot manage their risk, and ended up blowing their entire account. Doesn't incorporate stoploss and ended up blaming the market saying it's purely because of the whales.
      Yes, that was me in the past...

    • @Jaburu
      @Jaburu 3 месяца назад

      @@shin-jo2801 "the market is manipulated" and "my broker is painting the chart against my position"

  • @AddilynTuffin
    @AddilynTuffin Год назад +519

    With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.

    • @NormanGhali
      @NormanGhali Год назад +5

      Remember that investing in the stock market carries risks, and it’s important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    • @DanielPanuzi
      @DanielPanuzi Год назад +5

      With the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $550K portfolio across multiple markets, and in just a few months, I was able to earn over $950K in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds

    • @RickWatson-xu6gw
      @RickWatson-xu6gw Год назад +4

      Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one

    • @DanielPanuzi
      @DanielPanuzi Год назад +3

      Having a good FA is essential for portf0lio diversification. My advis0r is *Sharon Louise Count* who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.

    • @judynewsom1902
      @judynewsom1902 Год назад +2

      I Found her online page by searching her full name, I wrote her an email and scheduled a call, hopefully she responds soon. Thanks

  • @icecoldchilipreppers
    @icecoldchilipreppers 2 года назад +83

    Ahhh yes. This is a lovely video. My once large portfolio is down 55%. But this video, is just lovely.

    • @ihavenoidea1
      @ihavenoidea1 2 года назад +11

      What a Chad. Losing money AND expressing hatred towards the removal of RUclips's dislike button.

    • @icecoldchilipreppers
      @icecoldchilipreppers 2 года назад

      @@ihavenoidea1 😂

    • @javyassassin13
      @javyassassin13 18 дней назад

      My once large Portofolio got sold out and thrown into options oops 😬 was desperate

  • @Paralellex
    @Paralellex 2 года назад +318

    A good demonstration of the limits of back testing random theories is attempting to do so with literal random coin flips.
    So let's say I've got it in my head that a pattern of (heads, tails) makes the next coin more likely to be heads. Of course, it doesn't; the odds of each coin flip is independent of the previous results. But ignoring that, how could we test this theory?
    Well, maybe a reasonable way would be to say that if (heads, tails) is followed by heads 60% or more of the time, then the theory has merit. So I'd take a number of coin flips and see if (heads, tails) was followed by heads more than 60% of the time.
    I wrote a short program that did 10 million of these "trials" with 200 coin flips each. So it would take 100 random coin flips, test my "theory", record if it succeeded or not, then repeated the process 10 million times. 687,148 of those times my test passed, which means 6.87% of the time my totally baseless theory would be "tested" to be true.
    Now think of how many other such "tests" you could come up with. Maybe I think (heads, tails) makes tails more likely, or (heads, heads) makes tails more likely, and so on and so on.
    If you come up with enough of these theories, one of them is likely going to be true, and you'll have convinced yourself that you can predict literal coin flips.

    • @greenbrand
      @greenbrand 2 года назад +26

      cool thought experiment

    • @Sjejdbangdw
      @Sjejdbangdw 2 года назад +10

      The problem is that your 'strategy' is a totally random process and its not influenced by any parameters whatsoever, therefore has no way of reproducing the same results when provided with the same data

    • @Paralellex
      @Paralellex 2 года назад +93

      @@Sjejdbangdw That's not the problem, that's the point.

    • @pazuzuxx
      @pazuzuxx 2 года назад +3

      So what should we investors do? Dca into the SPY and/or sell covered calls?

    • @vincenzo3828
      @vincenzo3828 2 года назад +3

      that pretty much sums my thoughts on trading(forex,commodities,futures,stocks or whatever)... I think that it just depends on luck; there is no way that someone can fucking predict the market and if he can he would always predict it, it is more likely imo that every "profitable" traders are just lucky.

  • @GetIrked
    @GetIrked 2 года назад +9

    I get more excited to see there’s a new Benjamin video in my feed than I get when I see my portfolio go up …
    … and even though Benjamin only releases a video once every other blue moon, that’s still more often than seeing my portfolio go up.
    Sigh.
    Thank you for preventing me from using my knot-tying lessons on something… counter-productive… Benjamin! ❤️❤️❤️

  • @akkikishore3770
    @akkikishore3770 Год назад +18

    wait you guys have lines that go up?

  • @KamikazeCash
    @KamikazeCash 2 года назад +34

    Guess it's time for a 9:02-minute break

    • @georgesteffey8375
      @georgesteffey8375 2 года назад +3

      Im looking forward to your next freeloader video, Im hoping you'll get to participate in some crazy medical study

    • @KamikazeCash
      @KamikazeCash 2 года назад +3

      @@georgesteffey8375 that’ll actually be done today and released tomorrow.

    • @Marixpo
      @Marixpo 2 года назад

      Release a new dankest trades video or I will find you and I will do things that you dont like, until you make that video. Do not test me

  • @MrLyonsCo
    @MrLyonsCo 2 года назад +56

    Always worth the wait.

  • @tonysilke
    @tonysilke 9 месяцев назад +70

    Fantastic content as always! Appreciate the rare honesty and transparency. After experimenting with stocks since late 2021, I've shifted to 100% S&P 500, regretting not doing so from the start. Considering a return to individual stocks in 2024, but uncertain about safely investing $500k in the market.

    • @Dannyholt33
      @Dannyholt33 9 месяцев назад

      I find it more productive and safe to buy growth/blue-chip stocks & large caps. It's advisable to work with a fiduciary advisor for a well-diversified portfolios instead of relying solely on speculations.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- 9 месяцев назад

      Exactly, a good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisor, but over the past 10years, I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $4 million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure and that's fine by me.

    • @sattler96
      @sattler96 9 месяцев назад

      Impressive! How can I contact this advisor? My portfolio has underperformed, and I need guidance.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- 9 месяцев назад

      'Vivian Carol Gioia' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @sattler96
      @sattler96 9 месяцев назад

      I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

  • @dorzlatan
    @dorzlatan 2 года назад +1

    It actually was a Romanian Guy. Nicolae Iorga that said 'A nation that doesn't know it's history is doomed to repeat it'

  • @donaldjack5487
    @donaldjack5487 11 месяцев назад +141

    I began my investment journey at the age of 38, primary through hard work and dedication. now at the age of 42,I'm thrilled to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time.this success reinforces the important of the advices mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth but rather ensuring long term financial prosperity.

    • @MorrisonChris
      @MorrisonChris 11 месяцев назад

      Investors should exercise caution with theire exposure and exercise caution when concerdering new investment, particularly during periods of inflation. It's advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields

    • @donaldjack5487
      @donaldjack5487 11 месяцев назад

      Through closely monitoring performance of the portfolio, I've witnessed a remarkable growth of $483k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on experience traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets it's safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I've made recently

    • @TianaHook
      @TianaHook 11 месяцев назад

      Wow that's stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.

    • @OwenLugard
      @OwenLugard 11 месяцев назад

      This past few months watching my forex portfolio decline is very disheartening.holding doesn’t really profits much.
      Any idea on how to earn better on the short run?.please recommend to me your Fin advisor

    • @donaldjack5487
      @donaldjack5487 11 месяцев назад

      The advisor I'm in touch with is *JESSICA KATHERINE ELLIS* she work with merrill, piece, Smith incorporated and interviewed on CNBC television. You can use something else, for me her strategy works hence my results.she provide entry and exit point for the securities I fucose on..

  • @marcuskriegel3084
    @marcuskriegel3084 2 года назад +173

    As a newbie about to invest, you must have these three things in mind
    1. Have a long term mindset.
    2. Be willing to take risk.
    3. Be careful on money usage, if you're not spending to earn back, then stop spending.
    4. Never claim to know - Ask questions and it's best you work with a financial advisor. I made it as a newbie by working with Alex Valentino and today I can show alot of my achievements.

    • @beckybierwirthhj6465
      @beckybierwirthhj6465 2 года назад

      I really need this type of information as I am new to the market. Please how can I go about investing and if you do not mind, How did you invest with your investment advisor?

    • @marcuskriegel3084
      @marcuskriegel3084 2 года назад

      I did a long term investment in crypto as a beginner through the assistance and help I got from Fredrick Lucas. he diversified my initial 20k capital and after a year I received over 300k returns. Well, there are a whole other RIA but I am glad I chose to work with Fredrick Lucas. So far, there have been no reason to regret.

    • @beckybierwirthhj6465
      @beckybierwirthhj6465 2 года назад

      Thanks for sharing this with me. I am interested in your financial advisor. If you don't mind, how can I reach out to Fredrick Lucas?

    • @marcuskriegel3084
      @marcuskriegel3084 2 года назад

      you can make a quick research of he, on web get the necessary info you need and reach out to him, research with his names blow

    • @claragreensisocgreensontel2548
      @claragreensisocgreensontel2548 2 года назад

      ..

  • @GuRuGeorge03
    @GuRuGeorge03 2 года назад +31

    i used to spend hours each day, trying to predict the market until I realized that if I just started spending that time on doing something valuable, then that value would come back to me in the form of money, which i can then passively invest (like 1-2 hours of work PER YEAR, lol) to increase the return on my income. I wish I learned that lesson sooner

  • @gerhardstefan1027
    @gerhardstefan1027 2 года назад +12

    Hello Benjamin !
    Thank you for your video and for commenting our paper
    But please: Do not just pick out ONE SINGLE chart from a paper in which we try to test seriously if there was a SIGNIFICANT and STABLE over-estimation of realized by implied volatility in the past 30 (!) years, and without mentioning the whole context of the chart in our research.
    But, of course, it is more funny and lurid to pick out, you are right ... ;-)
    By the way, much more information can be found in my book on "Quantitative Finance".

    • @anthonyviverito8286
      @anthonyviverito8286 10 месяцев назад

      I’ve recently had the chance to read the paper you put together. Very interesting. I know I’m about year late but I'm curious, does your book explore the strategies mentioned in the paper in greater detail? Also, I was hoping for some clarification regarding the reentry process. In scenarios where a position is stopped out, is a new position opened automatically? If so, a 5 percent stop loss seems difficult to manage. I’d be curious to see how many times you got stopped out and would need to reopen a position. Thanks for your insights!

  • @alicebenard5713
    @alicebenard5713 10 месяцев назад +69

    Building wealth involves developing good habits like regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate the stability of the market and precisely when the change is going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomberg.

    • @Jessicatorres_768
      @Jessicatorres_768 10 месяцев назад

      Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.

    • @SophiaBint-wj8wn
      @SophiaBint-wj8wn 10 месяцев назад

      This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?

    • @alicebenard5713
      @alicebenard5713 10 месяцев назад

      Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $483k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.

    • @ConnieGriffith-u4z
      @ConnieGriffith-u4z 10 месяцев назад

      Wow, that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.

    • @KatherineAnderson-lm8bw
      @KatherineAnderson-lm8bw 10 месяцев назад

      I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?

  • @dragandpass9816
    @dragandpass9816 2 года назад +15

    These videos are great when my portfolio is down 69%

  • @nadavhermanvideoproduction8724
    @nadavhermanvideoproduction8724 2 года назад +2

    So what happens now?
    “The past appears to be a predictably unpredictable predictor of the future”
    “I feel like there’s a lot of words in this vide but nothing has been said”
    I just love you Benjamin.

  • @benjolly4014
    @benjolly4014 2 года назад +2

    You saying “this channel, more of a hobby than anything useful.” Made me like and subscribe

  • @bobtabor4133
    @bobtabor4133 Год назад +1

    There has never been a RUclips video that has resonated with me as much as this video in this moment. Having spent countless hours writing code to decode the market including 12 hours yesterday, I give up. It can't be done. At least, I can't do it.

  • @okthisisthelasttimeipromise
    @okthisisthelasttimeipromise 2 года назад +4

    You’re the best. I get very happy when I see RUclips notify me that you’ve posted.

  • @mjk6520
    @mjk6520 2 года назад +1

    Man, I love ur videos so much, I'm learning something and having a fucking laugh everytime I come here. Thank you so much, well deserved subscription

  • @ImanTrading
    @ImanTrading 2 года назад +4

    Thank you for this brilliant financial advice about past performance equaling future results. I am now all in.

  • @AB-dd4jz
    @AB-dd4jz 2 года назад +1

    Benjamin, there is something way more important but a lot less sexy that TA and it is money management and trading psychology if you have those on your side even with a coin flip you can make money but of course if you create a nice algorithm on top of that it can turn into something pretty cool but the very base of all this is money management, without it any market can kill you.

  • @annagoldman1163
    @annagoldman1163 2 года назад +56

    ‘’Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off." - Carlos Slim Helu

    • @danromero533
      @danromero533 2 года назад

      Making it out at a young age is quite difficult. I started a side hustle at 17, saved up and made some good investments. l'm 28,live on my own and having a good life for myself. Big ups to you and everyone out there trying

    • @frankdouglas1562
      @frankdouglas1562 2 года назад

      @@danromero533 Sounds like plan, how do you put money to work?

    • @danromero533
      @danromero533 2 года назад +1

      @@frankdouglas1562 Yes it sure is. I put in money in investments and get profits. That 's how I make more money without working. This does not sound new to you right ?

    • @frankdouglas1562
      @frankdouglas1562 2 года назад +1

      Thanks for replying me, I've heard so many people talk about investment but none had said how to do it right.

    • @danromero533
      @danromero533 2 года назад

      @Casino Şimşek There are lots of investments options such as real estate, stock market, forex, cr ypt os, passive income,

  • @MsBlackParadox
    @MsBlackParadox 2 года назад +2

    The line goes up because we want it to go up. The good ol' random walk is great but I feel like the behavioural/psychological aspect of markets is much stronger than it used to be (consider market efficiency, it was seen in the data when it was first analysed, like the 60s and 70s but then the market started changing and it is no longer the case). I really hope that neuroscience, psychology and finance join forces to let us understand the current markets better.

    • @user-fl2pf8df8m
      @user-fl2pf8df8m 2 года назад

      What's app✙①③①⑤⑥④⑥⑤⑥⑤④
      More updates on XRP,NFT's,BTC📊
      What's app✙①③①⑤⑥④⑥⑤⑥⑤④
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    • @matthewhook3375
      @matthewhook3375 2 года назад

      In the long term, the line goes up if and only if the intrinsic value of the business increases over time. If a business does well, makes more sales, earns more profit, reinvests its retained earnings fruitfully to increase earnings even more in the future etc etc, it will become more valuable - the line will go up.

    • @pedroabreu1754
      @pedroabreu1754 11 месяцев назад

      @@matthewhook3375 bro, profits only went up the last 10 years because of money printing, central banks have controled the market since 08', so if the money supply didnt kept incrising throw the central banks pumping , the market would be up much slower pace during this last 10 years.

  • @Gmuhvo
    @Gmuhvo 2 года назад +9

    I'm a Benjamin enthusiast.

  • @AlexBorel97
    @AlexBorel97 2 года назад

    Video like these are a relief for RUclips community. Thanks !
    Not used to comment RUclips video by the way

  • @ainedoyle8617
    @ainedoyle8617 2 года назад +8

  • @maikvoets3628
    @maikvoets3628 9 месяцев назад

    Looking back is useful to the extend it teaches you something about consumer behavior. The stock price alone will not inform you about what products/ services people are going to buy in the future. Their past behavior however will tell you a lot about what to expect they will buy tomorrow. At least, in broad lines..

  • @cinderheart2720
    @cinderheart2720 2 года назад +4

    I think I'm starting to get it. In the end, there is only money when the risk is higher than any reasonable person would be willing to buy. And if you repeat that process you will, inevitably, lose money.

    • @mattbenz99
      @mattbenz99 2 года назад +2

      Ya, it is called a risk premium for a reason.

  • @Grandmas_Favorite
    @Grandmas_Favorite Год назад +6

    This man is the best economics teacher I’ve ever had…

  • @dimitristripakis7364
    @dimitristripakis7364 7 дней назад

    Do not let such backtests put you down! It is a natural game our brain plays on us! Coulda, shoulda, woulda....Had I invested all I have smoked so far in my life in MSFT, I would now have 1.4 Million. But this only makes me more confident for the future. Look into the future! Good luck to all.

  • @rubyrose49
    @rubyrose49 Год назад +1

    Okay but Ben has a way of presenting content that is really entertaining. I visualize him as someone who always has a poker face.

  • @okela1
    @okela1 2 года назад +3

    i don't get 90% of the financial stuff, but it's awesome

  • @mirko5707
    @mirko5707 2 года назад

    price is clearly a fundamental data. Analyzing stocks movements based on price (technical analysis) is a fundamental analysis.

  • @AnthonyLBalsano
    @AnthonyLBalsano 2 года назад +4

    A thing you kind of brought up but maybe didn't explore is that living through this insane bullrun was full of uncertainty. After the 2008 crash the next 2 years were still scary for traumatized investors and then around 2012-2013 when prices hit 2008 highs again there was a lot of fear about another crash. Let alone every new ATH brought plenty of articles fearing another crash around the corner. Hindsight makes it seem like an easy buy and hold but living through it was diff

  • @connerswigart5397
    @connerswigart5397 4 месяца назад

    Fundamentals are the only indicators that can truly determine if a stock will perform well and it generally relates to how fundamentals relate to current share price.

  • @scrappyanimations4096
    @scrappyanimations4096 2 года назад +36

    I swear these videos are as energizing as opening your first leverage account as a literal homeless man (me)
    Update: no more leverage, did get into public housing 👌

  • @glbong42
    @glbong42 2 года назад

    Benjamin, you are the fucking guy I need to watch when I am stress out from work! Good job!

  • @napulen
    @napulen 29 дней назад

    The way I like to think about it: good performance in the past performance is not an indicator of good performance in the future; however, BAD performance in the past (especially when using a validation set) is a more reliable indicator of BAD performance in the future. If anything, by backtesting, you are choosing to lower the odds of you (certainly) failing.

  • @Borntoschnitzel
    @Borntoschnitzel 2 года назад

    I'm falling in love with the music that you keep using. Reminds me of my childhood lol

  • @A_two_tone_rebel
    @A_two_tone_rebel 2 года назад +1

    „Live in hindsight“ oh boy i got a superhero for you

    • @whatapp2611
      @whatapp2611 2 года назад

      What’sapp✙14083898749
      More updates on XRP, STOCK ,BTC📊
      What’sap✙14083898749
      More updates on XRP, STOCK, BTC📊

  • @Tabu11211
    @Tabu11211 2 года назад +5

    I just finished Fooled by Randomness and I tell you, this is a great follow-up video haha.

  • @Dejavudiable
    @Dejavudiable 2 года назад +1

    the pandemic days of market dropping 10%+++ daily..... I miss those days...

    • @Benjamin-ec3bw
      @Benjamin-ec3bw 2 года назад

      T̼h̼a̼n̼k̼s̼~̼~̼f̼o̼r̼ ̼w̼a̼t̼c̼h̼i̼n̼g̼!̼!̼!̼
      ̼T̼e̼x̼t̼ ̼o̼n̼ ̼W̼h̼a̼t̼s̼A̼p̼p̼✞̼︎̼✙̼❶❽❹⓿❺❽❽❾❸❼⓿🔥🔥🔥̼

  • @louisclifford9874
    @louisclifford9874 2 года назад +62

    I came here to learn how to invest after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from $160k, somehow this video has helped shed light on some things, but I'm still confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas.

    • @wilsonbrown8993
      @wilsonbrown8993 2 года назад

      Investing in stocks and crypto is a good idea, a good trading system would put you through many days of success.

    • @tinythomas4438
      @tinythomas4438 2 года назад

      It is possible to produce superior performance provided you do something different from the majority. However most of us tend to pay more attention to the shiniest position in the market to the cost of proper diversification.

    • @anthonysam9391
      @anthonysam9391 2 года назад

      Having monitored my portfolio performance which has made a jaw dropping $370k from just the past two quarters alone, I have learned why experienced traders make enormous returns from the seemingly unknown market.

    • @louisclifford9874
      @louisclifford9874 2 года назад

      @@anthonysam9391 Interesting, I have a lump sum doing absolutely nothing at all in my bank account, I wanna get something started with it. You seem to be doing excellent for yourself, how do you achieve this?

    • @anthonysam9391
      @anthonysam9391 2 года назад

      @@louisclifford9874 Exactly, the trick is to diversify your investment, don't panic when everyone else is and invest consistently.

  • @buckstarchaser2376
    @buckstarchaser2376 2 года назад +1

    The USD is still (for now) the world's petrodollar. The GDP of most countries is thus pegged to the USD. When you look at a breakdown of GDP sectors, you'll find that financial services, savings, loans, trading stocks/bonds, etc.. Make up such a large portion of the the worlds' GDP, that the long term trend of "line go up" is a direct reflection of worldwide inflation, because it simply can't be anything else at this point. Every new $Trillion+ money-printing spree gets mostly spread around the globe, somehow missing the US. There's nothing in the world to spend that much money on without causing hyperinflation, so it all ends up trickling back onto the markets. It can't leave the markets, or else hyperinflation. For the most part, "line go up" is simply the conscious choices of many wealthy people and institutions, deciding not to end the world today, so that their portion will continue to have value.

  • @tompepper4789
    @tompepper4789 9 месяцев назад +1

    I didn't know I needed this video, until I watched it.

  • @techgeek380
    @techgeek380 2 года назад +5

    Everytime I mess up my trades, so basically everyday. I then come here waiting for a video of yours so I can laugh away some of the pain, keep it up wgmi 😂

    • @figa22751
      @figa22751 2 года назад +1

      I feel you brotha

  • @AustinFragomen-wy8sy
    @AustinFragomen-wy8sy 9 месяцев назад

    Here’s a fundamental issue with past performance for stochastic systems in forecasting the future: just because something happened does not mean it was likely or even remotely likely to happen. When you consider this, a walk backward is almost as speculative as a walk forwards. Hindsight bias is part of the misled assumption that something that has happened was deterministic. I.e. it was meant to happen. When compounding this with the work of neuro psychologist researcher like kahmiman, it becomes increasingly clear that what we think we understand about the past in the mislead application of implied causal relationships is less than that we actually understand. Our mind tries it’s best to create a uniform, coherent version of relativity, but in doing so makes assumptions that we don’t even know we are making.

  • @pharrellosullivan8688
    @pharrellosullivan8688 Год назад +68

    I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Katherine Flores.

    • @bobwarshaw8439
      @bobwarshaw8439 Год назад

      You invest with Mrs Flores too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

    • @Austin195
      @Austin195 Год назад

      I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

    • @pharrellosullivan8688
      @pharrellosullivan8688 Год назад

      she often interacts on Telegrams, using the user below.

    • @pharrellosullivan8688
      @pharrellosullivan8688 Год назад

      FLORES11 💯

    • @adriandakota795
      @adriandakota795 Год назад

      @@pharrellosullivan8688 Thank you

  • @michaeloseghale3410
    @michaeloseghale3410 9 месяцев назад

    Y'know, i normally skip through the sponsor bit... but then i pressed skip forward once and it seemed like it was over so i let it play.. mid way i realized it was still going... then i realized, you tied the sponsorship bit so well with your original video display and audio that if the first bit of that "daily news" wasnt there, it wouldnt even seem like a promotion bit... ANyways thats my long version of saying that i felt played and im here to say well done on that haha... Also, i came here from imans channel. Ill be subbing, this video is interesting and funny... I saw your channel also has sparsely updated videos which is not a bad thing either.

  • @EZ485VIDEO
    @EZ485VIDEO 2 года назад

    I found the same. The backtest I got is full of bull strategy. Since 2008 the balance sheet of FED is keeping growing and I don't know if this will continue to the future. maybe the FED can't keep increasing money supply and in the end, we never will encounter the same investing environment we had before. can't agree more with this video.

  • @KaDaJxClonE
    @KaDaJxClonE 2 года назад

    @5:22 you can very subtilty hear the V-Sause theme. I thought that was a good touch.

  • @biggiesmalls9491
    @biggiesmalls9491 2 года назад +4

    Benjamin drop merch I want a shirt with your profile pic

  • @WtbgoldBlogspot
    @WtbgoldBlogspot 2 года назад +1

    There's a 61.8% chance you're correct.

  • @egal1780
    @egal1780 2 года назад +1

    This channel will be pure gold, forever.

  • @Zarvy
    @Zarvy 2 года назад

    Yes we can't predict future with past performance but we can do market neutral strategy, no matter which direction it go you win,
    Yes it's hedge fund strategy

  • @jabarigraham
    @jabarigraham 2 года назад +5

    I've been waiting for this made sure I had notifications on can't miss this🔥🔥🔥

  • @pepepepinillos3902
    @pepepepinillos3902 2 года назад +3

    Why do all that work when I can make tiktoks and sell courses?

  • @cherubin7th
    @cherubin7th 2 года назад +2

    What I learned from Amazon is you should throw money at a random balding guy who wants to sell boring stuff on a platform no one uses.

    • @whatapp2611
      @whatapp2611 2 года назад

      What’sapp✙14083898749
      More updates on XRP, STOCK ,BTC📊
      What’sap✙14083898749
      More updates on XRP, STOCK, BTC📊

  • @helensteve2817
    @helensteve2817 2 года назад +9

    Awesome piece!!! Very engaging right from beginning Business and investments are one of the best ways to ensure financial freedom even under the nose of the pandemic.🇺🇸🇺🇲🇺🇸🇺🇲

    • @richardsonpat4336
      @richardsonpat4336 2 года назад

      Yeah, my first investments with Ms Linda earned me profit of over $18,550, and ever since then she has been delivering..

    • @LucindaTurner462
      @LucindaTurner462 2 года назад

      I had been living under average financial earning until i came in contact with Ms Linda, so i had to give her a shot of $2,000 And got a proflt of $13,350 in just 3 days, Life have been better afterwards!.

    • @stacybenson6273
      @stacybenson6273 2 года назад

      Same here, I started with 2,000 now earning $14,500 every 3 days in profit with her program...

    • @davidhobbes9779
      @davidhobbes9779 2 года назад

      Her success stories are everywhere....No doubt Linda's trading service is very good, i lnvested $2,500 and made $15,700 in 2 days, Her analysis are awesome!

    • @eileen_harrison
      @eileen_harrison 2 года назад

      I couldn't believe myself untill I got a profit of $11,500 with an initial startup capital of $1,500 in 2 days I love Ms Linda Denison

  • @marcribot391
    @marcribot391 2 года назад +1

    Havent seen it yet but im thrilled. Thanks for posting u are quality

  • @eliotness107
    @eliotness107 2 года назад

    The best tools to have to do OK on the stock market is neither technical analysis or fundamental analysis. More important is psychology of humanity, critical thinking, and a deep understanding of cause and effect. You also have to come to terms with there are no certaintees, only probabilities. Politics is always great to keep track on worldwide in order to have some sort of basic understanding of where the markets could go in the future. You can use technical analysis and fundamental analysis, but dont rely on them entierly.

  • @christians8885
    @christians8885 2 года назад

    Quick question chat I have a situation on my hands so I’ll try make it short.
    No sell calls for a stock on November for a stock I own.
    stock is currently running around $2 to $4
    Yes I own some shares.
    So I’m selling 10 calls, for the bid- ask- section I wrote a hefty $500 down since the premium looked nice with those numbers.
    Now the break even isn’t that bad because I still have a greater number of shares that I own compared to what I currently placed.
    I have two questions my first one is could this go through? If there’s no probability of it going through then I’ll forget the second question, Yes it’s on robinhood.
    my second question is with the Greeks what is my probability of losses and deterioration and all that? Hopefully I explained it enough for you guys to get the idea.

  • @GdaySport
    @GdaySport 2 года назад +3

    This dose of sarcastic gloom has left me satisfied. Thank you Benjamin.

  • @hellowill
    @hellowill Год назад

    Buy and hold. So many of my friends dump their shares when the market goes down. They miss out on gains over and over again. I dont understand it.

  • @ina-Marine902
    @ina-Marine902 2 года назад +21

    The worse feeling you can have as a financial Market analyst (trader) is to pick tops and bottoms successfully and watch asset prices steam towards your forecasted take profit levels. It's so heartbreaking. thats why i trade with Mrs Nicole Brusher, her skills set is exceptional

    • @eltonstephens4461
      @eltonstephens4461 2 года назад +1

      Amazing to see another who trade with Mrs Nicole Brusher, I'm currently on my 5th trade with her and my portfolio has grown tremendously. Her weekly signals are highly profitable

    • @dannyarthur8020
      @dannyarthur8020 2 года назад

      I invest with Mrs Nicole Brusher too, she charges a 20%commission on profit made after every trading session which is fair compare to the effort she put in to make huge profits.

    • @kikky1170
      @kikky1170 2 года назад

      As a first time investor I started trading with, Mrs Nicole Brusher, I personally appreciate her straight and simple approach towards educating traders. My portfolio has grown more within just weeks of trading with her.

    • @gennywilly2933
      @gennywilly2933 2 года назад +5

      With the consistent weekly profits I'm getting investing with Mrs Nicole Brusher, there's no doubt, she is the most reliable in the market, such a genius.

    • @eltonstephens4461
      @eltonstephens4461 2 года назад

      @@normanphillip1134via
      Te
      Le
      Gr
      Am

  • @neopabo
    @neopabo 12 дней назад

    I created an overfitted model the other day that doubles your money every day with 100% accuracy the other day, meaning it produces infinite returns.
    It's impossible for it to predict future moves, but it is still funny to look at

  • @pilotgfx
    @pilotgfx 11 месяцев назад

    looking at that serpent makes me realize to an even higher degree, how many of the parts of the snake is initiated and preserved in ill will with full awareness of its negative effects.

  • @teresamorris8390
    @teresamorris8390 2 года назад +17

    Great video. I started watching your videos last year as a beginner and it's a great gratitude for now l understand that Bitcoin is more than buying and selling before giving market a trial. I was able to make $43,000 with a capital of $9,000 trading with an legit guidance who guided me through out.

    • @teresamorris8390
      @teresamorris8390 2 года назад

      Despite the fact that I take glory for the achievement, I have to tell you, I was guided by Expert Mrs Jennifer Fan a broker I found through a news blog. She is the mastermind behind it and I am so grateful.

    • @carlosbolyard5662
      @carlosbolyard5662 2 года назад

      @@teresamorris8390 How does this whole thing works, I'm interested in it and willing and ready to invest heavily but I need an assistant to properly puide me through on how to make a good startup and be successful in it without making mistakes.

    • @carlosbolyard5662
      @carlosbolyard5662 2 года назад

      Without reasonable doubt cryptocurrency is the best and profitable to buy because it helps in facilitating transactions

    • @nicoleK1874
      @nicoleK1874 2 года назад

      Crypto trading is very profitable when you trade well.

    • @steveowen342
      @steveowen342 2 года назад

      @@teresamorris8390 please share don't want to remain out of ignorance

  • @realGBx64
    @realGBx64 2 года назад +1

    Backtesting on my past health data says that I haven’t died yet so if I keep doing the same thing I will live forever

  • @probableclause
    @probableclause 2 года назад

    the line do go up model is naturally back tested and validated

  • @OIOIOIIOOIOOOOOIOIOOOIII
    @OIOIOIIOOIOOOOOIOIOOOIII 2 года назад +1

    What are the odds Benjamin has a phd in technical astrology?

  • @anthonyjames4662
    @anthonyjames4662 2 года назад +19

    Biggest mistake: not investing in a crypto favourable portfolio 75/25 portfolio. 75% crypto , 25% stocks

    • @austinpeter6116
      @austinpeter6116 2 года назад

      Just shove into CRYPTO you will be wealthy in the long run

    • @chrisgarrick6243
      @chrisgarrick6243 2 года назад

      Am investing in crypto now........the dip is a clear sign for new investors to come in

    • @MeyerAnneliese
      @MeyerAnneliese 2 года назад

      Yeah this is absolutely the best time to buy and Invest

    • @austinpeter6116
      @austinpeter6116 2 года назад

      @@MeyerAnneliese Perfect you buy when the market is low to get profit when it rises

    • @mariamike4159
      @mariamike4159 2 года назад

      I wanted to trade Crypto but got confused by the fluctuations in price

  • @mirrormirage0
    @mirrormirage0 9 месяцев назад

    6:08 Jerome Powell Bull ride formation 🤣🤣🤣. Thoroughly fun! A must watch , self reminder for all of us 👍

  • @lucasglowacki4683
    @lucasglowacki4683 2 года назад +1

    Wouldn’t you have an even better return if you bought 10k of Bitcoin in that exact timeline?🤔

  • @LukeCassidy
    @LukeCassidy 9 месяцев назад

    Huge props for the Peter and The Wolf theme. Automatic like 👍

  • @owlinvestor9393
    @owlinvestor9393 2 года назад +1

    Technical Astrology 🤣🤣🤣 that my friend, had me dying

  • @carloszamora467
    @carloszamora467 2 года назад

    regular car reviews for stonks. love it

  • @Silverdust4797
    @Silverdust4797 2 года назад

    I love it when you post, it makes my month/quarter

  • @Ru-mk8lp
    @Ru-mk8lp 4 месяца назад

    "I dont feel funny today" right after the most hilarious intro to a finance vid ever witnessed :D official bruh!

  • @john80944
    @john80944 Год назад

    I'm studying how genre fictions was made in the past, specifically the fantasy genre. And I can tell you, the past development is a fucking messy-as-hell chaos too.
    There are only complex reasons which made fantasy as popular as to day, and you still can't predict how the market will go or where will it go.

  • @zizzyballuba4373
    @zizzyballuba4373 2 года назад

    Reminds me of my childhood when my uncle showed me how he does backtests.

  • @BooooClips
    @BooooClips 2 года назад

    Mate this is your best video yet 😂

  • @guttydozen
    @guttydozen 9 месяцев назад +2

    "Only put an amount you're willing to lose into Bitcoin but put all your money over the next 30 years into the S&P"

  • @ChrisosIDK
    @ChrisosIDK Год назад

    Try optimising your algo against PART of your dataset. The rest is the out sample. Run the optimised algo against the full set including the out sample. If is still profitable you might have found parameters that have some actual utility. Next, run a forward test against a demo account. If its still profitable you are golden!

  • @one8s7n
    @one8s7n 2 года назад +1

    Oh finally! I've been detoxing bad from these

  • @alexh7064
    @alexh7064 2 года назад

    Dude - thanks for putting us on with The Daily Upside. Fucking love it.

  • @scoobydoobies
    @scoobydoobies 5 месяцев назад

    Not me finding this just after spending several weeks in a manic state coding up a backtest script for my latest strats

  • @GIaucoma
    @GIaucoma 2 года назад

    Your videos remind me so much of the satirical witty crude humor of Archer, I love it