Bitcoin to $4.6M by 2030? We tested Metcalfe's Law to find out.

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  • Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024

Комментарии • 558

  • @christophemarin4118
    @christophemarin4118 2 года назад +40

    Wow... Math is hard 🤣 Seriously... I appreciate the time and energy that you put into this in-depth look under the Bitcoin hood. I especially geeked out at how each prediction model was put together and how many come out to very similar conclusions. I akin this to having someone coaching you during the early days of Google, Amazon, Tesla, Apple and others and showing you the potential of those innovations. Like James always says "there are no guarantees" but the data to date shows that we're all headed in this "up and to the right" pattern for the foreseeable future. That right there warrants even a wee bit of BTC in everyone's bag. Bravo James!

    • @InvestAnswers
      @InvestAnswers  2 года назад +7

      thank you so much for the kind and detailed note. appreciate it sir

    • @arshidshafi378
      @arshidshafi378 2 года назад

      @@InvestAnswers James absolutely breathtaking research. U r s gem of crypto world.what an amazing video

    • @benhartart9487
      @benhartart9487 2 года назад

      Just wet your toes in BTC if you can get a whole coin you will be in Rarified air 😀

  • @taveiraadriano
    @taveiraadriano 2 года назад +117

    Prime and superb content as usual ! ....Imagine how much would someone have to pay to receive such information in traditional financial markets ! James brings it for free to the community. Thanks James.

  • @davidbroom5125
    @davidbroom5125 2 года назад +154

    Absolutely incredible level of research. Thank you James. My mum and dad have decided to release equity in their home to buy a whole Bitcoin. They’re 70 and 72 this year.

    • @InvestAnswers
      @InvestAnswers  2 года назад +24

      wow nice move.

    • @MrNegroni
      @MrNegroni 2 года назад +10

      Literally terrible idea.

    • @juqqq4717
      @juqqq4717 2 года назад +8

      Horrible idea! Always first the essentials not speculative assets!

    • @MrNegroni
      @MrNegroni 2 года назад +3

      @@juqqq4717 exactly! The stupidity of some people is insane!

    • @josephelborno1125
      @josephelborno1125 2 года назад +24

      @@MrNegroni you don't know their situation don't worry about other people's decisions worry about yourself. God how stupid can you be, please no one be like this. Prime example of whats wrong with the world. Stupid people putting their input on OTHER peoples lives which they don't even know the circumstances

  • @bashira71
    @bashira71 2 года назад +41

    Amazing James! I usually don't comment but today I couldn't hold back. As a researcher by myself I know how much research you had to do for this content. Thank you very much for your time and hard work.

    • @InvestAnswers
      @InvestAnswers  2 года назад +4

      Wow, thank you! Happy Weekend my friend

  • @dtemplar
    @dtemplar 2 года назад +49

    BTC always goes down when I buy (pretty sure I'm responsible for the recent dip). Therefore according to my model, if I keep DCA'ing, BTC Price will be $100 by 2030.

    • @artmeditationvista1526
      @artmeditationvista1526 2 года назад +2

      Nobody, not a single person, who has held btc over 4 years ever lost $$$. You're basis mostly doesn't matter. HODL. Be patient. Let Metcalfe's Law grind the bears into the dirt!

    • @ApexHerbivore
      @ApexHerbivore Год назад +1

      Please stop buying, BTC at $15000 now this is getting ridiculous 😅

    • @lisacraig83
      @lisacraig83 6 месяцев назад

      😂😂

  • @steveandmaggyb5721
    @steveandmaggyb5721 2 года назад +36

    Professor James masterclass once again! We love learning from you and even more, love watching how much you love doing it!! Your joy is infectious!! Thank you thank you 🙏

  • @Da_brawler
    @Da_brawler 2 года назад +9

    As someone who loves math and having an undergrad degree in Engineering, I wish most of my teachers/professors growing up were as patient as you . Thanks!

  • @breakfastleadership
    @breakfastleadership 2 года назад +35

    Amazing analysis as usual, James. We are all blessed by your knowledge and the time you invest in educating us. Bravo!

  • @karinaleung1651
    @karinaleung1651 8 месяцев назад +2

    Just watched this now 1 year later. So fascinating!

  • @GreenNutGuy
    @GreenNutGuy 2 года назад +53

    I'm going for .25 of a BTC because of you James. Thank you so much for everything you do, it has honestly changed my life.

    • @thehop639
      @thehop639 2 года назад

      or has it??

    • @K_Villain_
      @K_Villain_ 2 года назад +1

      Nice

    • @russbilderback
      @russbilderback 2 года назад +2

      Good for you man. Go for .25 and then keep going!

    • @JoeCnNd
      @JoeCnNd 2 года назад +1

      I can get that .5 for what you paid for that .25. I'm thinking 14k is the bottom point.

    • @faitaccompli5878
      @faitaccompli5878 8 месяцев назад

      This didn't age well.

  • @Kraken_88
    @Kraken_88 2 года назад +57

    Brother James, there is no longer any question for most of us that BTC is the best, safest asset.
    But we always enjoy your models and impeccable research. Thank you a bunch!

  • @iasonbarmpakantze3310
    @iasonbarmpakantze3310 2 года назад +11

    Wow! The amount of time, energy and resources you put into your educational videos. Outstanding, thank you so much Sir!

  • @tylerrichardson6712
    @tylerrichardson6712 2 года назад +23

    Thank you so much for the hard work! You're now my go-to source for crypto videos. I especially appreciate that your titles reflect the content, and don't pander to click-bait with awkward faces.

  • @scofields7655
    @scofields7655 2 года назад +21

    I dont know if Metcalf, Met Mod, S2F, Fidelity, FOSS, Bond EV Mod, IA RB Model or ARK are right...but they don't have to be. I'll take the bear case at today's BTC price for a 20x in 8 years. Now I even understand that.

  • @ProfitMaximazer
    @ProfitMaximazer 2 года назад +3

    Could you make a video going over all your positions, price targets and investment thesis for each? would love to see that. Thank you for the amazing research as always!

  • @MadHuman09
    @MadHuman09 2 года назад +1

    I have learned one thing about BTC price in last year - ABSOLUTELY, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHERE THE PRICE WILL GO IN FUTURE. Do not waste your time with calculations and graphics! HOLD strong.

  • @vincentw6051
    @vincentw6051 2 года назад +4

    More "ifs" in this video than there are bitcoins in the world!

  • @hule32
    @hule32 2 года назад +2

    Mathematics is the rawest form of reality! Thanks James for you work! Priceless!

  • @seanwahl1000
    @seanwahl1000 2 года назад +12

    These type of models always make my day. Even if they don't end up working out they sure do make me feels good. Thank you!

  • @shyandyou
    @shyandyou 2 года назад +5

    Absolute fantastic session well done to James and the team 👍🏽🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿💸💰

    • @InvestAnswers
      @InvestAnswers  2 года назад +2

      Thank you Sha my Twitter Friend :D - I always think of you when I try get a vid out early.

  • @valuetraveler2026
    @valuetraveler2026 2 года назад +2

    As Bitcoin prices goes down the price predictions get more outrageous! People might like to start by holding on to the BTC they already have instead of selling at a loss

  • @iamdanharley
    @iamdanharley 2 года назад +3

    James, this was an astonishing presentation & the most in depth price prediction analysis of Bitcoin I've seen from anyone to date...I'm gonna have to watch it again to take it all in...lol...but a huge thank you for all the work you put into this!

  • @vagabundierendeskatzchen7500
    @vagabundierendeskatzchen7500 2 года назад +3

    Thank you James!! As always!! Eventually I’ll catch you live again.

  • @es106395
    @es106395 2 года назад +1

    Interesting, as always. Appreciate your analysis on BTC makes me think harder. I'm thinking 225k to 250k by 2030. Time will tell. Hope your right! Cheers.

  • @illeodavinci
    @illeodavinci 2 года назад +4

    I dont miss a vid mate, precious information!

  • @jasonmarden3057
    @jasonmarden3057 2 года назад +13

    I like you James and appreciate everything you do. It does make me wonder though, if you and virtually everyone else could be so wrong about the price of Bitcoin in the short term. That is, last year's prediction. And you were wrong, how can you be so confident pricing BTC 10 years out? With so many unknown variables at play, seems a bit silly to me.

    • @Robert-un3cf
      @Robert-un3cf 2 года назад +6

      I think it's easier to predict long term trends than short term price movement. But of course nobody knows for sure what will happen...

    • @jasonmarden3057
      @jasonmarden3057 2 года назад +2

      @@Robert-un3cf Agreed. The point remains that in 10 years, so much can happen that we can't even imagine.

    • @robotpirateisland3430
      @robotpirateisland3430 2 года назад +2

      @@jasonmarden3057 I think unless another project replaces bitcoin (which to me seems extremely unlikely given decentralization, network effect, security, etc.), then I think these models are reasonable, especially since James is sandbagging so much. I think he's trying to portray almost a worst case scenario here with his ~$1M figure, that we can at least expect that much. As for the other models, I don't know.

    • @jasonmarden3057
      @jasonmarden3057 2 года назад +8

      @@robotpirateisland3430 Totally understand what you're saying, and what James is trying to outline. However, you mention a figure that we can reasonably "expect". My point is that most people said last year, that we could "expect" anywhere from 98k to 250k. Expectations often don't meet reality. By the way, I'm a crypto believer. Also a realist.

    • @HidingFromFate
      @HidingFromFate 2 года назад +3

      @@jasonmarden3057 You're correct in that even the most conservative crypto "gurus" had estimated BTC to be at worst in the $70K range by year end. However, plenty of analysts outside of the cryptosphere inner expert circle had much more ambivalent and conservative ideas about BTC price and its general viability going forward in both the short and long term (and I don't mean the PM curmudgeons, nor the conspiratorial and end-of-days cranks, but longtime respected investment analysts).
      Unfortunately, I got caught up a little too much in the positive echo chamber of the crypto experts, and consequently grabbed too much BTC sooner than I needed to in 2021, i.e., I FOMO'd in figuring that even just $70K would be great by year end so I had better keep grabbing more BTC in the 40's and 50's range in case the more common $90K or higher range of price projections were going to be reached by year end or shortly thereafter.

  • @lilbee5357
    @lilbee5357 2 года назад +3

    Yes I DO like and I DO subscribe! Love James! ❤

  • @themarkofl1649
    @themarkofl1649 2 года назад +19

    As an engineering student, I love these Bitcoin model videos. Great presentation as always, James!

  • @32brookse
    @32brookse 2 года назад +5

    Isn't calculating participants by wallets greatly underestimating participants when so many Bitcoin participants are on huge single wallets owned by exchanges?

    • @1Bob4All
      @1Bob4All 2 года назад

      He does like to be Conservative.

    • @kalaindahaus1009
      @kalaindahaus1009 2 года назад +1

      but at the same time so many users have multiple wallets, defi users and bots sometimes use hundreds

    • @32brookse
      @32brookse 2 года назад

      True, but there would still be a vast undercount. A **lot** of BTC users are on exchanges.

  • @cornscrapper695
    @cornscrapper695 2 года назад +2

    Awesome video! I'm studying for my CFA level 1 and I'm trying to figure out how to build models to help evaluate crypto prices. This helped
    Thanks James!!

  • @kingjtjt
    @kingjtjt 2 года назад +2

    Did you consider that there could be a crises->negative publicity-> Inflation-> few able to invest

  • @blowinshtup6553
    @blowinshtup6553 2 года назад +1

    Great stuff. YT didn’t like the humor in my first comment, I guess. First 5 minutes were a fine reminder why you succeed,IA.

  • @arnoldapplewhite3149
    @arnoldapplewhite3149 2 года назад +1

    The amount of research you put into your videos is nothing short of forensic. Your channel bring's clarity and a realistic (positive) outlook to this space when there is so much FUD in the markets. Big thanks for all your hard work James. 17,161??

  • @BatmanBoss
    @BatmanBoss 2 года назад +2

    Bitcoin! Thanks buddy

  • @plutinicus
    @plutinicus 2 года назад +1

    Fantastic math as usual. Perhaps I missed it but should you not also factor in central bankers, resistant governments, general public scepticism and FUD as possible headwinds? I think this will impact s-curve growth trajectory, perhaps significantly. We did not see governments resisting iPhone and internet during the respective adoptions I don’t to such a degree, unlike Bitcoin. As Bitcoin is perceived as a greater and greater threat, I think so too will resistance to it increase. Should ‘resistance to change’ thus be factored in? Just a thought.

  • @nayanaabrol7193
    @nayanaabrol7193 2 года назад

    love seeing you, the planet should be grateful for having people around such as you

  • @SeattlePaddler
    @SeattlePaddler 2 года назад +2

    Thanks again James! Can you talk about the Bitcoin halvings cycles in your Next Q&A? I asked a Q about it on Patreon. 😉

  • @chilidem
    @chilidem 2 года назад +2

    Can you add Peter Schiff's model?

  • @thadz7205
    @thadz7205 2 года назад +6

    Hi James, fantastic video once again.
    Any chance we could get a video on the best approach for someone putting in 200-300 a month. Hoping for financial freedom in the future and that’s all some of us can afford.
    Thanks again

  • @coinpunks-crytponews7803
    @coinpunks-crytponews7803 2 года назад +5

    Thank you James for all the amazing and hard work. This is what all us Bitcoiners are looking for! Team IA all the way!!

  • @KoonceLyfe
    @KoonceLyfe 2 года назад +2

    Excellent video James, appreciate the insane amount of work you put into these videos. Do you plan to cover the subject of wallets and the current / preferred options for storage? Cheers!

  • @saturupiah5940
    @saturupiah5940 2 года назад +6

    Thanks James and IA for your well researched video.
    Compounding return of 40-50 percent annual return doesn’t sound unreasonable, however given that the current BTC price is actually less than 12 months ago it’s hard to get excited.
    That said I’ll continue to DCA into BTC.
    Good luck everyone. Hope the 2030 predictions prove correct.

  • @burropoco
    @burropoco 2 года назад

    Unparalleled level of research and delivery. This channel is building a notable historical legacy in the field of crypto.

  • @charlieperkins5567
    @charlieperkins5567 2 года назад +1

    Very helpful video! I was wondering, where/how did you get the equations for modeling A?

  • @franciscoballeza3502
    @franciscoballeza3502 2 года назад +1

    Am at half a bitcoin..what a way to end the week James you gave me a good high gonna work hard towards my whole bitcoin TY once again for educating ppl on crypto and bitcoin..happy Happy weekend..!!!

    • @InvestAnswers
      @InvestAnswers  2 года назад +1

      absolutely and thanks for watching

  • @binilpillai7850
    @binilpillai7850 2 года назад +1

    One of the best videos from you and from anyone out there. Excellent narrative and one place to see all models. Very educative and the point is, it shows a handful of models to believe the amazing growth of this asset. Great work!

  • @chrisrob7276
    @chrisrob7276 2 года назад +1

    James luv yr work, however where do you get $900T for bond market? As of 2021, the size of the bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated to be at $119 trillion worldwide and $46 trillion for the US market, according to Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).

  • @americanrealistcommonsense8414
    @americanrealistcommonsense8414 2 года назад +1

    Excellent break down thanks James

  • @mickkollins
    @mickkollins 6 месяцев назад +1

    Great research and presentation..thanks...my big takeaway? "...The world needs an asset that is not "muckable"...

  • @caseyfit
    @caseyfit 2 года назад +2

    Well done James. Thanks as always. Absolutely love these type of videos with all the MATH!

  • @keithoftheshire2805
    @keithoftheshire2805 2 года назад +6

    James in maths overdrive today..... excellent. Thanks again for all your hard work behind the scenes, and for the top quality presentations which we have become so used to👍.

  • @ThePunkadagirl
    @ThePunkadagirl 2 года назад

    Take all possible answer ( bear, expected and bullish) and run a Standard deviation.

  • @andj6861
    @andj6861 2 года назад +2

    Thank you that was brilliant!

  • @silverbacksworld
    @silverbacksworld 2 года назад

    You deserve our time to make a comment. Big respect for this work. *i can’t believe the revenue from RUclips actually cover the value of your time in doing these.
    👊👊👊👊👊👊👊👊👊👊👊

  • @jondub1975
    @jondub1975 6 месяцев назад

    It’s pretty rad to go back and watch your video’s from years past. Crazy how accurate things are tracking…and at an even more accelerated rate. Keep up the great work 🤘🏻

  • @Tiger_MSTR
    @Tiger_MSTR 2 года назад +1

    👍and no skipping commercials.

  • @ashishrastogi5461
    @ashishrastogi5461 2 года назад +7

    Love all your analysis thanks for breaking it all down for us.

  • @rpal82
    @rpal82 2 года назад +2

    Thanks James. Loved the hopium filled content. NEeded that badly in the current market situation where we see price soon hitting below 200 week avg. hope that doesnt happen.

  • @konstantinos2926
    @konstantinos2926 2 года назад +1

    We need more fuel! I DCA BTC,SOL and Matic!

  • @prakashbhandari4961
    @prakashbhandari4961 2 года назад +1

    10 nodes value is 100
    11 nodes value is 121
    12 nodes value is 144
    ..............
    ..............
    131 nodes value is 17161

  • @LawrenceNewmanESQ
    @LawrenceNewmanESQ 2 года назад

    I’m waiting for bitcoin to grow like your subscriber base, well done! A true testament to your clear, concise, and valuable reasoning. Thank you for all your time, energy, and contribution to this community. I’m one of your more mature subscribers lol 😂. Best to you James! You’re a class act.

  • @jimborad7490
    @jimborad7490 2 года назад +1

    2:19 131x131=17161

  • @JT-fo2zo
    @JT-fo2zo 2 года назад +4

    That was an absolute MasterClass in Math, Money and Freedom! One of your finest, James! Thank you! 🙏

  • @tigermark9241
    @tigermark9241 2 года назад +1

    Hey James, although you're not a sports fan - i'm sure you'll get the reference ' knocked it out of the park again', amazed at the depth and quality of your work, not just this, but the regular 'insights & briefings. Thx so much for sharing your knowledge and beliefs.

    • @InvestAnswers
      @InvestAnswers  2 года назад

      so kind of you - baseball words - one of my fave movies is Money Ball :D

  • @whenspurs
    @whenspurs 2 года назад +1

    Love it, maths, graphs and projections...more please!

  • @illuvizard7713
    @illuvizard7713 2 года назад +1

    Wonderful video as always! Thanks James.
    With a Bitcoin S2F of 116 years after 2024 halving, shouldn't S2F after 2028 halving be a bit higher than 232 years? That's because between 2024 and 2028 we will have an additional 656,000 Bitcoin added to the existing stock, and with the new supply being cut in half in 2028, S2F should become more than 2 x 116.

  • @oscara8111
    @oscara8111 2 года назад

    Please correct me if I'm wrong. With each halving the price of Bitcoin must go up to ensure miners keep mining. With less rewards the rewards must increase in value otherwise mining bitcoin becomes unprofitable. If it becomes unprofitable miners will leave until there is an equilibrium and it becomes profitable again, less miners means more bitcoin for those remaining. If the following halving happens and again the price doesn't increase sufficiently more miners leave. With fewer miners a 51% takeover could happen and bitcoin ends. It needs to increase in value just to survive well into the future.

  • @goilee9716
    @goilee9716 2 года назад +1

    I believe in Bitcoin but don't believe the price to the extent they say...1m or even half a mil

  • @victorgreenwood2972
    @victorgreenwood2972 2 года назад +1

    Thanks James and team

  • @badboybob5120
    @badboybob5120 2 года назад +1

    Thank you for your work James😚

  • @darrell3752
    @darrell3752 2 года назад +6

    Thank you Sir! Your commitment to crypto education is outstanding.

  • @artmeditationvista1526
    @artmeditationvista1526 2 года назад +2

    New subscriber here...and very happy I am! Nice work man!

  • @wailenglow7790
    @wailenglow7790 2 года назад +1

    Thank you, James. As always

  • @Sandra-qi3bm
    @Sandra-qi3bm 2 года назад +1

    I too love your content,I appreciate all the research you put in and we all get the benefit of your hard work. Every time bitcoin dumps and I feel a bit of panic coming on I go to your channel and listen to you talk,it calms me down and I feel ok again. Thanku Thanku James!

  • @susannegaede4589
    @susannegaede4589 2 года назад +1

    Thank you James, this is absolutely mind-blowing, and a really good start in the weekend. Patience is the key............

  • @K_Villain_
    @K_Villain_ 8 месяцев назад

    Love coming back to these videos 🔥🔥

  • @huemann3416
    @huemann3416 2 года назад

    I want to thank you for all your TA.
    Thank you for your professionalism and concise explanations with every valuation.
    I’m tired of the big mouth moon boys who try to scare investors with big mouth thumbnail posts inciting fear.
    You have a kind, calm voice and I respect your insight.
    God Bess you my friend for educating us as well.
    Thank you again for being the voice of the common person.

  • @robertschultz7612
    @robertschultz7612 2 года назад +2

    All anyone needs to know is we are going back to 20ks before new ath....
    As for million dollar btc .... I can't imagine how anyone thinks this is credible...yes I'm long btc ...

    • @robertschultz7612
      @robertschultz7612 2 года назад

      @@ElCid-sf8mt I guess trying to negotiate a 25x increase in btc market cap is the problem for me ...the early days of btc up to 69k were a much different equation for rising market cap compared to now ....its like the shib guys saying its going to a dollar..impossible

    • @baldheadjamaican2551
      @baldheadjamaican2551 2 года назад

      Facts

  • @ceviking7730
    @ceviking7730 2 года назад +1

    Dream On

  • @johnwhite7885
    @johnwhite7885 2 года назад

    Great content James. Thank You. What am I missing about BTC price? So much institutional interest but public selling offsets it???? I would think overwhelming demand should be pushing the price up.

  • @Julian-pj2zi
    @Julian-pj2zi 2 года назад +6

    Love the models, many thanks for your hard work James!

  • @audioeye2803
    @audioeye2803 2 года назад +1

    Thanks James

  • @wilet.3088
    @wilet.3088 2 года назад

    Love math, but math hates me. Watching you in your works is always a huge source of enjoyment for me, James !

  • @swissnikk8412
    @swissnikk8412 2 года назад +2

    131^2 =17161

  • @immuta-bull1722
    @immuta-bull1722 2 года назад

    Of all my investments getting in early to James and InvestAnswers was the best! You've had a 18X or so in subscriptions since I came on!! Keep edu-taining sir!!

  • @wakenblakeyo
    @wakenblakeyo 2 года назад +1

    I have tweeted out talked about this quite a few times Metcalf‘s law

  • @just4400
    @just4400 2 года назад +1

    Just wanted to say i love your show.

  • @Lordwhelan67
    @Lordwhelan67 Месяц назад

    No thoughts on the power law?

  • @joshkarren2698
    @joshkarren2698 2 года назад

    The answer to the number of nodes is 17,161. Thanks James.

  • @TrePryorRealtor
    @TrePryorRealtor 2 года назад +1

    Appreciate all the work that goes into making these videos!

  • @Deeperondown
    @Deeperondown 2 года назад +1

    Fantastic research James. I like the sandbagging approach and yet Bitcoin is still the bargain of a lifetime. Thanks for your work.

  • @jaroenporpiang
    @jaroenporpiang 2 года назад +1

    Your logo is so cool - infinity. Also love your contents. following you regularly from Thailand 🙂

  • @steveevans8160
    @steveevans8160 2 года назад

    All the graphs in the world but since September I been watching my INVESTMENTS drop every month, moneys in the right places as suggested!

  • @FN-Alpha-YT
    @FN-Alpha-YT 2 года назад

    Please review hex and it’s staking mechanismen. I would love to hear your opinion. Ponzi or not?

  • @Luke-xt8dg
    @Luke-xt8dg 2 года назад +1

    Thank you very much James!! Excellent fuel to hodl on :-)

  • @digitalmarketing9049
    @digitalmarketing9049 2 года назад

    Hi James. A quick question - if Bitcoin hits 1000000 by 2030, that’s a 20x. So per year would be 2.5x. So annualised return is 250%? You mentioned CAGR is 34%. Shouldn’t it be 250% annualised return per year? Kindly advise. Thanks

  • @alejandrovillanueva5386
    @alejandrovillanueva5386 Год назад

    Thank You so much James amazing!

  • @treyd3433
    @treyd3433 2 года назад

    Thank you for the lecture Professor James!!

  • @pilar3884
    @pilar3884 2 года назад

    Thank you, James. Have a nice weekend!

  • @eldrdelasalsa
    @eldrdelasalsa 2 года назад +1

    Priceless! Thx!