A lot to think about, I'm going to have to watch this several times to understand everything. Thanks for all the hard work you obviously put in to your videos.
I actually sent this to a friend because you explain things in a matter of minutes that it takes me forever to flounder and try to figure out and explain properly. Thanks great video!!
Bonds and Treasury training on a rainy Saturday afternoon... love it. If you want to know how the equity market operates, you have to understand the inner workings of the bond market. Excellent and fascinating instruction. Thank you!
All of your videos are incredibly informative and educational, but your Saturday videos are absolutely inane for anyone trading or truly wishing to learn how to trade.
Fair Value Gap, Looking at your chart, on the weekly, we had 8 weeks of positive candles before a 9th week provided a minor low. What is interesting from a Fair value Gap perspective is the distance between the 7 weekly candle top and the 9th weekly candle bottom which created what's known as a Fair Value Gap and price on Friday brought the close of the candle inside that gap. So a body close below that we are heading to $347 which is the top of the next Gap below and a close above takes us to $370.
For those looking for an immediate market crash, I highly doubt it will happen. There are so many bears right now where a crash is unlikely unless a major economic event happens. Also, before a downturn happens, most times, not all, it will try to retest the resistance level on a daily chart before it starts going down again. We still haven't had a retest of the resistance level. Also, Michael Burry's huge put positions were as of June 30. The indices are still higher than June 30. Since he's sitting on losses on those positions, if Burry was prudent, he would have to start unwinding some of his puts as the market pulls back to lower his exposure and minimize losses as if the indices don't fall below June 30 levels, he will lose 90% of his portfolio. And those were his put positions reported on June 30. That means he could have bought those puts anytime between April and June when the markets were even lower. That should prevent a freefall market as well.
All your videos are helpful. I certainly would benefit from an explanation and time to explain adjustment settings on various indicators. Certainly appreciate your time, effort and opinion Anthony.
Excellent approach to analysis! Clear technical explanations and you've focused on some interesting macro trading trends with the JPY carry trade that don't get much attention on RUclips. Great Work!
You are very knowledgeable. Please do a video on how time charts cause cognitive bias. Three bow breakouts on point and figure historically sets the trend. Price action is better than any indicator in my pov.
Fascinating stuff! Currently short NVDA because I doubt they can deliver on revenue growth from 7 to 11 billion in ONE QUARTER. Could be wrong but the stock is way ahead of itself IMO
your not a Belieber ? lol. They could do it. They better its way ahead of itself. The main reason I think they might is GS a month ago was saying they are going to crush and they have no way to valuate the company anymore.
@@AreteTrading Decided to hold the puts through earnings. Either going to make bank or get rekted. Figured they are only worth about $85 a share using realistic valuation metrics. GS is full of it.
This video is so nice im gonna watch it twice 🙏 definitely learning a lot from you and if I'm successful this year I will definitely be joining up with your paid service. Really appreciate what you do and how much you put into these videos.
I really think most of nasdaq will depend on NVDA’s earnings near term. I think market can rally (relief rally) next 1-2 weeks but then sell off after that before FOMC. Thank you for your videos!!
@@aaronsmith4806 im sure if it pops up, there will be profit takers no matter what they guide. Look at the price action after last earnings. Formed a star. There were buyers and sellers both going back and forth. The question is if they beat and guide higher, how MUCH higher? If they miss big time then I expect the stock to fall and fill that gap. The AI rally will be over. I don’t think that happens. At least not this quarter. I am personally hoping for 1 more quarter of rally behind AI investing before the bubble pops.
mad props for diving deep into the intricacies of the market, especially shedding light on the nuances of the s p 500, NASDAQ, and the various dynamics at play now, not everyone's gonna vibe with this but, while it's crucial to analyze past market trends, it's equally important not to get too anchored to historical support and resistance levels markets evolve and so should our perspectives but still, this video is straight fire for anyone looking to get a pulse on what's popping in the market
Thank you for your insight. You have truly raised the bar in terms of education to a level unmatched by any other content creator on RUclips. Great work my friend!
After getting pulverized by listening to Ron Walker I now find myself here. I went back a few weeks and watched a bunch of Arete videos and how it panned out. Seems okay. Heck just having a comment section is already a plus.
Hi Cello. Don't listen to anyone not even me. Take the information you have and make your own decisions. The market is dynamic and can change on a dime. Last week I was calling for the markets to roll even more by Friday morning based upon the action we were locking in profits on shorts. The market changed so I must as well. Adapt or Die. In regard to turning off the comments. I use this as social media and that is the social part . the comments help me create content. Its also a temperature to see if what I am doing is resonating with people . I do not see that happening. Thanks again.
I do have us haveing a face ripper till the end of August, but with Nvidia and Jackson hole Wednesday through Friday, and China guess we gotta take it day to day level to level brother.
Thanks Max! I appreciate that. It's funny. I am fortunate to have friends that are very successful on social media and they introduced me to someone that is in the financial field broadly and has millions of subs on YT. he is more into mortgages some stocks credit score etc. He said my videos are over people's head and I should do it like everyone is in second grade. I wound up doing the exact opposite and I am glad I did. As long as people are learning that is what I want. I have zero interest in being the biggest, I want it to be the channel people think of when they want to learn what is really going on and what it takes to be successful in trading.
you need to look at rates , the dollar , the PE of the stock market , the real earnings yield of the stock market. its all connected. If you simply take those two you are referring too you will get an incomplete picture. Google Edward Yardeni PDF. You will find free PDFs on the internet that answer your questions. He is very good and very smart.
When you are looking at history indicators, you can't just look at the rally of 2023 (Everything usually says things are going up), you need to include 2022 and even 2007-2009 would be nice also. I do like the data you are providing.
You can go back 100 years. I have done that in scenarios. Right now in this video I am trying to get through this week. It was geared specifically to that. I go back to 2007 a lot you need to now that zero interest rates are dead. Thanks for the feedback.
Watched this twice, I finally get it, watch all the indicators and indexes and invest in a crystal ball because nobody knows for sure where this market is going!
You always say you use "12, 22, 55 moving averages. You should use whatever moving averages you are comfortable with..." but you never explain why you use those numbers for moving averages!! Please explain why you use them!
The reason in my opinion is that it is a stronger conviction SMA. What I mean is usually the 200 SMA is stronger than the 50, which is stronger than the 20, etc etc. So what Arete is doing is taking the usually 10,20,50 SMA AND adding 10% to 11,22,55 giving the trade or signal a bit more weight and more conviction and of course he backtested it and realized it is better for his style Of trading
Also can you look at that ponzi known as eli lilly and maybe throw it in a video I think maybe its soon due for a pullback but a second opinion be great.
70% correction and back to the bear terminal! Just a payout to the insiders before the crash from their class action insulin lawsuit. Buy the stock if you believe in ripping off consumers on a daily basis.
Ugh this had made me question everything. Have puts in everything for a month out thinking it’ll be the easiest money I’ve ever made. Now your oodles of doodles are saying ounces of bounces?
Aaron I think they bleed us out and now we have puts into an inflated VIX . SInce July 27th the VIX is up 44% I am making money in puts but its tougher unless news specific such as HE etc. MY AAPL puts I only did well due to the gap down friday and I locked them in and rolled out cheaper ones. Friday is Quad witching they are going to bleed us out after Powell speech.
I think he might be bullish considering his emphasis on RSI level's and smart/ dumb curve, but Monday morning looks like a potential whipsaw setup against bears going short w/ putspreads... just my laymans take on his commentary. I wouldn't expect him to make a reco on RUclips, I wouldn't asssume that he would go out on a limb at this moment in the market.
I present information that is relevant to me. I analyze. I do not predict. There are several channels on here that will tell you the market is going to crash or the market is going to a million. There is no clearer way for a trader to spot someone that is not a trader then to watch these channels predict and tell you what is going to happen. That is not how any of this works. We dig into it. We analyze. We act. Adapt or die.
Honestly your all videos have got so long that I skip many, way too long. Everyday ideally be 12 minutes with no index discussions and saturday video 24 min. But it is just me, so doesnt matter.
@@AreteTrading Anthony like i told you ; english isnt my native language... I had some troubles understand all the mechanics about the japan monetary policy... I dont know for others but i was asking to myself if you could break it small pieces in order we can understand the whole picture for your next explanations you have so much knowledge about the markets...sometimes i think i misunderstand some parts or i dont make all the links; its like if we were on a too high gear . Thanks again🙂
⚠ATTENTION TRADERS WHO LOVE TOP DAILY STOCK SETUPS ! ⚠
📩 FREE DAILY NEWSLETTER bit.ly/3H3rjTq
A lot to think about, I'm going to have to watch this several times to understand everything. Thanks for all the hard work you obviously put in to your videos.
Glad it was helpful! Thank you Tj! Most people watch more then once or rewatch a specific spot
I actually sent this to a friend because you explain things in a matter of minutes that it takes me forever to flounder and try to figure out and explain properly. Thanks great video!!
That's great Thanks for sharing Ernie!
Bonds and Treasury training on a rainy Saturday afternoon... love it. If you want to know how the equity market operates, you have to understand the inner workings of the bond market. Excellent and fascinating instruction. Thank you!
Thanks Solar!
All of your videos are incredibly informative and educational, but your Saturday videos are absolutely inane for anyone trading or truly wishing to learn how to trade.
Fair Value Gap, Looking at your chart, on the weekly, we had 8 weeks of positive candles before a 9th week provided a minor low. What is interesting from a Fair value Gap perspective is the distance between the 7 weekly candle top and the 9th weekly candle bottom which created what's known as a Fair Value Gap and price on Friday brought the close of the candle inside that gap.
So a body close below that we are heading to $347 which is the top of the next Gap below and a close above takes us to $370.
Thanks for sharing
Your knowledge and the ability to impart it are truly exceptional. Thanks for being so selfless and sharing this information. You're good people!
I appreciate that Finn!
For those looking for an immediate market crash, I highly doubt it will happen. There are so many bears right now where a crash is unlikely unless a major economic event happens. Also, before a downturn happens, most times, not all, it will try to retest the resistance level on a daily chart before it starts going down again. We still haven't had a retest of the resistance level. Also, Michael Burry's huge put positions were as of June 30. The indices are still higher than June 30. Since he's sitting on losses on those positions, if Burry was prudent, he would have to start unwinding some of his puts as the market pulls back to lower his exposure and minimize losses as if the indices don't fall below June 30 levels, he will lose 90% of his portfolio. And those were his put positions reported on June 30. That means he could have bought those puts anytime between April and June when the markets were even lower. That should prevent a freefall market as well.
its always something we are not talking about. RX Thank you
I appreciate your analysis; technically nicely explained. Thank you!
Thank you !
All your videos are helpful. I certainly would benefit from an explanation and time to explain adjustment settings on various indicators.
Certainly appreciate your time, effort and opinion Anthony.
Noted! Thanks Kevin
Would really like to see on how you manipulate the indicators based on time frame
Noted Paul
Excellent approach to analysis! Clear technical explanations and you've focused on some interesting macro trading trends with the JPY carry trade that don't get much attention on RUclips. Great Work!
Glad it was helpful!
You are very knowledgeable. Please do a video on how time charts cause cognitive bias. Three bow breakouts on point and figure historically sets the trend. Price action is better than any indicator in my pov.
pretty much. I had a client years ago who literally would draw X and O on graph paper. He was highly accurate .
@@AreteTrading No one wants u taking their money. Everyone is in on it. The education is void in stocks. Cmt people know.
way too many people shorting NVDA into earnings imo because "it has to come down"
I agree with that. The "its too high argument"
Never too much… very worthwhile watch! Thanks for doing this… keep on keeping on.
welcome Cary!
Very helpful and balanced. Thank you for all that you do. Best TA on RUclips!
I appreciate that Walt!
I didn'get the part where the video shows that massive volatility is coming. Maybe I missed something? At which minute the topic is clearly discussed?
I now see you have changed the headline... mmh...
wrong title was loaded in. Thanks for noticing actually lol!
Roc stuff very interesting how the line changes. Thank u for reviewing that. Please dig deeper. Worth learning more.
Thanks Ant. I appreciate it!
That corporate insider buying is fascinating info. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
My pleasure!
Absolutely jam packed video with so much information. Really appreciate the time and effort you’ve put in these videos.
Glad it was helpful Hao!
Great insights! Thanks for the video! So looks like DXY may finally be topping which should lead to bounce in stocks.
It has that feel doesn't it ?
Fascinating stuff! Currently short NVDA because I doubt they can deliver on revenue growth from 7 to 11 billion in ONE QUARTER. Could be wrong but the stock is way ahead of itself IMO
It's the Bieber stock... Just believe! HA!
your not a Belieber ? lol. They could do it. They better its way ahead of itself. The main reason I think they might is GS a month ago was saying they are going to crush and they have no way to valuate the company anymore.
@@AreteTrading Decided to hold the puts through earnings. Either going to make bank or get rekted. Figured they are only worth about $85 a share using realistic valuation metrics. GS is full of it.
This video is so nice im gonna watch it twice 🙏 definitely learning a lot from you and if I'm successful this year I will definitely be joining up with your paid service. Really appreciate what you do and how much you put into these videos.
Great video..Had to watch the Japan part a few times to make sure I understand it
Great video! This content and depth is very appreciated. Top notch. don't change anything
Thanks, will do David!
I really think most of nasdaq will depend on NVDA’s earnings near term. I think market can rally (relief rally) next 1-2 weeks but then sell off after that before FOMC. Thank you for your videos!!
I wonder If NVDA will pop then sell off the Day After.
@@aaronsmith4806 im sure if it pops up, there will be profit takers no matter what they guide. Look at the price action after last earnings. Formed a star. There were buyers and sellers both going back and forth. The question is if they beat and guide higher, how MUCH higher? If they miss big time then I expect the stock to fall and fill that gap. The AI rally will be over. I don’t think that happens. At least not this quarter. I am personally hoping for 1 more quarter of rally behind AI investing before the bubble pops.
It could be we saw some changes on Friday
mad props for diving deep into the intricacies of the market, especially shedding light on the nuances of the s p 500, NASDAQ, and the various dynamics at play
now, not everyone's gonna vibe with this but, while it's crucial to analyze past market trends, it's equally important not to get too anchored to historical support and resistance levels
markets evolve and so should our perspectives
but still, this video is straight fire for anyone looking to get a pulse on what's popping in the market
First thank you for taking the time to write this. 100% agree with your statement. Everything changes.
Adapt or die.
Thank you for your insight. You have truly raised the bar in terms of education to a level unmatched by any other content creator on RUclips. Great work my friend!
I appreciate that Ian. I was wondering if It was too much with the Japan bond trade explanation.
After getting pulverized by listening to Ron Walker I now find myself here. I went back a few weeks and watched a bunch of Arete videos and how it panned out. Seems okay. Heck just having a comment section is already a plus.
Hi Cello. Don't listen to anyone not even me. Take the information you have and make your own decisions. The market is dynamic and can change on a dime. Last week I was calling for the markets to roll even more by Friday morning based upon the action we were locking in profits on shorts. The market changed so I must as well. Adapt or Die. In regard to turning off the comments. I use this as social media and that is the social part . the comments help me create content. Its also a temperature to see if what I am doing is resonating with people . I do not see that happening. Thanks again.
I’ve learned more here than any other channel ❤❤
I do have us haveing a face ripper till the end of August, but with Nvidia and Jackson hole Wednesday through Friday, and China guess we gotta take it day to day level to level brother.
Jackson hole NVDA Quad Witching all in one week. lol
Not too much. Wonderful in fact. Thank you 😊
Thanks Ballsitic !
This has to be most educational video I saw in awhile, and I watch quite a few channels, thank you for your work! Subscribed for free newsletter
Thanks Max! I appreciate that. It's funny. I am fortunate to have friends that are very successful on social media and they introduced me to someone that is in the financial field broadly and has millions of subs on YT. he is more into mortgages some stocks credit score etc. He said my videos are over people's head and I should do it like everyone is in second grade. I wound up doing the exact opposite and I am glad I did. As long as people are learning that is what I want. I have zero interest in being the biggest, I want it to be the channel people think of when they want to learn what is really going on and what it takes to be successful in trading.
Very thorough technical analysis backed by your market knowledge and experience. Respect. Thank you for sharing with us 🙏
My pleasure Iven! thanks
Very good. Thank you.
Thanks Pete that means a lot you took the time to comment!
BTW. I love your outro. “That’s it。”
Concise! Love it 😊
Thank you lol.
Your time and effort in these videos is much appreciated. You have helped this newbie immensely.
Glad to hear that Cajun! Are you in Louisiana?
Seems like you may have some above average TA. Got yourself a new subscriber. I'm explicitly crypto, but the other markets are still relevant.
Notice something. The last time rate this high, dxy stood at 115 this time 103 something isn't right. Can anybody help?
you need to look at rates , the dollar , the PE of the stock market , the real earnings yield of the stock market. its all connected. If you simply take those two you are referring too you will get an incomplete picture. Google Edward Yardeni PDF. You will find free PDFs on the internet that answer your questions. He is very good and very smart.
Awesome video!! Everything was need to know information!!
Thank you Ana !
When you are looking at history indicators, you can't just look at the rally of 2023 (Everything usually says things are going up), you need to include 2022 and even 2007-2009 would be nice also. I do like the data you are providing.
You can go back 100 years. I have done that in scenarios. Right now in this video I am trying to get through this week. It was geared specifically to that. I go back to 2007 a lot you need to now that zero interest rates are dead. Thanks for the feedback.
I swear we are in wave 4 down and now we go up to new highs this year then crash
You are right but break of 417 and it's not a short term wave 4. The next rally up and down will be key! Will be fun trading it!
We could be. Its not pretty to look at
Great insight so simple kind of 👍
Ha I will take it. thank you Craig !
as soon as i start to think you can't make any better content... thank you! i bought a cushion for my stool. ;)
Enjoy the cushion lol. Thank you
thank you!!
You're welcome Will!
Thank u so much very helpful
Thank you David !
Man your videos are so good, the trading mindset is so correct compared to purge channels, it'd take years to learn the same stuff
So it takes years. You are not going anywhere. Stick with it! It took me years. Thanks
Watched this twice, I finally get it, watch all the indicators and indexes and invest in a crystal ball because nobody knows for sure where this market is going!
You always say you use "12, 22, 55 moving averages. You should use whatever moving averages you are comfortable with..." but you never explain why you use those numbers for moving averages!! Please explain why you use them!
Most likely he tried several different numbers and just liked 11, 22, 55 the most at the time. Nothing that complicated or statistical.
The reason in my opinion is that it is a stronger conviction SMA. What I mean is usually the 200 SMA is stronger than the 50, which is stronger than the 20, etc etc. So what Arete is doing is taking the usually 10,20,50 SMA AND adding 10% to 11,22,55 giving the trade or signal a bit more weight and more conviction and of course he backtested it and realized it is better for his style
Of trading
Close Night! That is part of it. Another part It also gives me reversal signals before most traders.
You need to take a look at the cny/usd. The yuan is knocking at the door at a 15 year low.
I am sure it is. China has massive issues.
Also can you look at that ponzi known as eli lilly and maybe throw it in a video I think maybe its soon due for a pullback but a second opinion be great.
70% correction and back to the bear terminal! Just a payout to the insiders before the crash from their class action insulin lawsuit. Buy the stock if you believe in ripping off consumers on a daily basis.
I do not buy Pharma breakouts. maybe if specific biotech news
Luv u man...thanks♡
TY
amazing content
Thank you Sean!
its time for spxu inverse etf
Possibly but into Jackson hole NVDA and Quad Witching ?
Yes, sp500 dropping 50% from here
ha you think?
dynamite your the best ...
Thank you !
Now i have a headache and i like it :) thank you for all the details
lol
an hour long banger?!
It was longer lol
Remember last time the money market funds broke the buck?
yes. That line is not ideal.
Ugh this had made me question everything. Have puts in everything for a month out thinking it’ll be the easiest money I’ve ever made. Now your oodles of doodles are saying ounces of bounces?
Aaron I think they bleed us out and now we have puts into an inflated VIX . SInce July 27th the VIX is up 44% I am making money in puts but its tougher unless news specific such as HE etc. MY AAPL puts I only did well due to the gap down friday and I locked them in and rolled out cheaper ones. Friday is Quad witching they are going to bleed us out after Powell speech.
🔥🔥🔥
Thanks Caleb!
I cannot figure out what you are trying to tell us. You never finish a thought or make a point.
I think he might be bullish considering his emphasis on RSI level's and smart/ dumb curve, but Monday morning looks like a potential whipsaw setup against bears going short w/ putspreads... just my laymans take on his commentary. I wouldn't expect him to make a reco on RUclips, I wouldn't asssume that he would go out on a limb at this moment in the market.
I agree. I watch 60 min and walk away going what is the bias?
I present information that is relevant to me. I analyze. I do not predict. There are several channels on here that will tell you the market is going to crash or the market is going to a million. There is no clearer way for a trader to spot someone that is not a trader then to watch these channels predict and tell you what is going to happen. That is not how any of this works. We dig into it. We analyze. We act. Adapt or die.
SELL! SELL! SELL!
Johnny come two-months-lately! Ha!
now? lol your killing me Shawn killing me.
Honestly your all videos have got so long that I skip many, way too long. Everyday ideally be 12 minutes with no index discussions and saturday video 24 min. But it is just me, so doesnt matter.
Arete…the best on RUclips! Wishing I had watched this video before Friday…would have saved me some pain 🫠
Thank you. Get in the waitlist for the room. We covered the actionable pieces before the market open.
Many stocks in my watchlists were bouncing to say the least friday...
I am captain obvious😀
nice ! hope you benefited from it!
@@AreteTrading Anthony like i told you ; english isnt my native language... I had some troubles understand all the mechanics about the japan monetary policy... I dont know for others but i was asking to myself if you could break it small pieces in order we can understand the whole picture for your next explanations you have so much knowledge about the markets...sometimes i think i misunderstand some parts or i dont make all the links; its like if we were on a too high gear . Thanks again🙂