Global Economic Outlook 2024
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- Опубликовано: 16 июн 2024
- The global economy has suffered several huge shocks and policymakers are struggling to deal with the aftermath. As a result, some countries are coming out of this a lot better than others and will continue to do so. In this video, I examine the forecast from the IMF and the risks to economic stability. I also show how inflation may persist if the current geopolitical trend towards fragmentation continues.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:41 Triple Blow
00:54 Growth Slowed Not Stalled
04:20 Developed Economy Divergence
06:15 Emerging Economy Divergence
07:06 Scarring
08:09 Inflation
09:42 Risks: Sticky Inflation
11:42 Risks: China Contagion
12:51 Risks: Government Spending Fuels Inflation
14:17 Risks: Trade Fragmentation
16:10 Summary
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All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
I liked that you pointed out that the U.S. irresponsible government is working in opposition to the Fed. We have two competing policies working in harmony to destroy our economy.
This is one of the best financial channels covering UK topics. I found your channel recommended by Damien Talks Money and haven't looked back since. Congrats on building a really great community Ramin!
Wow, thank you! @joelmahabir706
Services in terms of tourism may have recovered, but services as in Financial Services, is heading down the toilet. That’s the industry I work in and I’m seeing nothing but deals getting pulled and doom and gloom with redundancies around the corner.
I suspect the real pain is yet to come.
I'm being very concervative with my portfolio keeping plenty in reserve in case of a crash, at least that money is earning some interest now whilst sitting rotting away to inflation lol.
That's to be expected after a boom.
That's to be expected after the complete disaster that is Brexit....
@@george6977What boom? Our economy was actually booming under the last Labour government from 1997, for the first time since the 1970's. But our economy hasn't really gone anywhere since 2010 and it's now stagnant, flatlining
Hi Paul, I am an Oxford tour operator & I was about to cross 250K annual sales before the world went mad in 2020. My business was growing year on year at 20% growth every year. Suffice to say, I still now have yet to return to the level of sales we had in 2019.
Thanks. Love the channel and rarely miss an episode. How about a video on how the various asset classes have performed historically after rates have peaked and begin to fall? And whether you think history will repeat? There is some research out there from Vanguard and various other outlets but be good to see your take.
Thank you @JeffCr75 that’s very kind of you. Yes I’ll definitely consider it. Ramin
THANKYOU . As always Great presentation and fascinating . Thankyou.
Glad you enjoyed it @karlmullowney998
Good topic and timely. Thanks ☺️👍
Glad you liked it! @chrish3305
Great explanation. Thank you))
Glad it was helpful! @sergiomatiash5977
Hello from the US. Great video and nice to hear a foreign perspective.
Nice to see an American who realises there’s a world outside America….
Depressing and scary how bad things are these days. No end in sight 😢
The scarring of inflation will be that we’re stuck with high prices forever even if inflation drops back to “normal”
In the past bear markets have been more global, the Uk is super cheap no doubt about it, America is very expensive perhaps for good reason, if America corrects the Uk will still fall no matter how cheap it looks, this is my biggest fear at the moment.
Is the UK cheap or fair price?
Great video as always, Ramin. Thank you.
Hi @TomsPersonalFinance good to see you here and thank you for watching. Ramin
Hi Ramin, great video as usual! On another note, I was curious about your opinion on Ray Dalio and Rob Copeland's new book 'The Fund'.
Hi @andreaisonline thank you! It's on my reading list. Funnily enough I do know someone who knows Ray Dalio and says that he paid for his mother to have chemotherapy. So he's not all bad 8-) (unless you've missed the urinal, apparently - then he will personally hunt you down!). Thanks, Ramin.
5:43 That chart has been shown to be incorrect, only ~50% of US excess savings have been drawn down.
Great analysis as always
Thank you @Ray-xj1dc
Thanks Ramin. another greaat video.
Thanks @patrickgo5004 Glad you enjoyed it!
Hi, confusing beginner question, about ETF ACC vs DISTR, so from what i understand accumulation ETF they dont give shares while distribution they give dividends that you can reinvest, if that is correct then and you will have more share while Accumulation they suppose to reinvest the funds you already have but they dont give you extra shares ?
Thank you.
You're welcome @krisnah7
Thank you for an interesting video! Could you do a video on stacking physical precious metals, such as silver or gold and your thoughts about that? Thank you.
Hi @servedarkness thank you for your suggestion
UK labour figures look good on the surface but details show an underlying problem. The number of companies going under is now the same level as 2009 plus there has been a huge move from self-employed/SME to larger companies for job security. The problem for the UK is that economic growth comes from the SME side not large companies. So potential issue ahead?
Thanks
Welcome @cb8608
To say there is a lot of jobs available for the unemployed person - isn't quite an accurate depiction of the situation. I know because I have been unemployed. At the job centres they have their internet terminals where available jobs can be viewed. However, the same jobs are continuously re-presented but counted as separate jobs. Also, anyone who is on any sort of training course, (which is obligatory to take when you are unemployed) is not classed as unemployed. And anyone needing full employment but is working just one day a week - is also not classed as unemployed at all. I thought you would want to know all of this. It's obvious really that the government will find a way to lie to us about the true situation of unemployment - as they do about everything...
We often read about forecasts from the IMF which seem to attract a lot of media attention. But I never see any follow up. Just how accurate are IMF forecasts and who tells them when they are wrong? Are they any good?
They are almost always wrong. And always more negative than they need to be which creates the negative effect.on the actual economy. Stop being mistik meg and have confidence in the economy.
I'm of the mind we'll go into recession next year .
Quick one what does anyone think about Doric air 3 paying 16% pa.
Increasing velocity of money holding up the economy in the US.
Excellent as usual Ramin. Very informative than you.
Much appreciated @timetraveller3063
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank as subscriber 😊
Excellent @detectiveofmoneypolitics
Invest in prisens a service that will boom. So US are well positioned to grow.
We have been in a recession since 2008. The numbers don’t show a recession because of government borrowing and increasing levels of debt. They have not managed to reduce the deficit to zero for a single year.
The economy is equivalent to someone in a lot of debt who is taking out credit cards and borrowing more to not go bankrupt. Whilst causing also creating inflation.
I cannot help thinking that there has been a huge amount of wining over the last year or so, “experts” saying we were all going to be “wiped out” well if this year was a wipe out I would like another one for my pension fund next year please. One more thing, I have no formal education in anything to do with finance but I am a History graduate (many years ago), I am surprised how slow witted many of the “experts” I read about are. I enjoy the information I find here however, it is always well presented and thought threw. Thank you.
The UK has only imported an average of 5% of electricity over the last decade and gets 50% of its gas from UK sources. UK doesn't import gas from Russia
Very interesting and thought provoking as usual. I can’t help but feel the climate change narrative is the elephant in the room though. Once enough respected scientists and academics identify any climate change down to sun activity and orbital proximity then I think this push for a prohibitively expensive ‘net zero’ will lose favour. Energy is such a large part of any economy and that will affect the growth across the globe.
If your thesis revolves around the predictive abilities of the IMF to determine what is ahead of us, I think you should take another look at their previous forecasts versus actual results. Go back as far as you like. I'm not sure I would trust them to tell me what happened today, let alone what to expect tomorrow.
I am forever struggling to understand why a tight labor market leads to recession. Looking forward to an explanation.
tight labour means strong economic growth, more jobs means more money in the business / population pool causing increased demand, driving up supply / demand pressures, resulting in inflation pressures. Increasing inflation, or prolonged elevated inflation, results in a stronger monetary policy response like interest rate rises, which leads to a break point where business and population over extend and ultimately correct to balance against costs of money, debt, less savings. hence a recession, not a soft landing, occurs.
@@tysoncable thanks. So in the end the recession is the consequence of insufficient competition and inflexible income distribution. Increased demand can lead to more supply without inflation, provided that either spare capacity is available and/or new suppliers can easily access the market. If increased demand leads to inflation then something stands in the way of supply adjustment. But even then, substitution happens. If the price of the iPhone goes over the roof ( rather than through ) I buy a Nokia, the monster SUV can become a pickup, the Rolex a Seiko, etc. The Phillips curve lost a lot of its shine and minimum wages have not led to massive inflation. In the service sector a need for repair will not make me call 2 plumbers for the same job, nor will I have more leakages thanks to higher wages. So the problem is not demand but supply ?
Lots of zombie companies who could just about keep their heads above water with ultra low interest rates. They have had it now.
What do you mean UK/US inflation is down, replacing high inflation items with lower inflation items in both countries is hiding the real inflation trates.
Even if the real inflation rate comes down, prices won't come down. All it will mean is that the rate at which prices are going up is lower than before, but prices will still continue to go up
Thanks for the insights. I would add that US economy will have deflationary effect because of the adoption of Artificial Intelligence.
Eh? Please explain.
We think that the economy is getting worse wait until AI has its full impact? I have a brother who is a corporate lawyer one word shi…. Scared for the future and other professionals. This economy is heading into depression which are government and main stream tv media will not admit. But are government and independent data are constantly moving the goal post .
About time overpaid lazy professionals got theirs. Working class jobs gutted. Now it's coming to middle class and professionals then we all will understand that the elite won and nothing we can do about it, except rebalance wealth and power which generally means violence. Buckle up.
Ramin, Do you have a software development background?
Hi @SameerKhan-gv8mt yes I worked as a developer for a bank before I became a strategist. Thanks for watching. Ramin
I can tell from the book in your bookshelf and also the scripts and queries you wrote in R :) @@Pensioncraft
Love watching your analysis videos@@Pensioncraft
Lots of pain still to come I think, it will be interesting to see how all the redundancies and companies going belly up affect the markets over the next couple of years or so.
This last week has been quite positive for my investments and I almost have the same amount that I put in a couple of years ago lmfao.
This has definitely been a baptism of fire for my introduction to investing after moving from property to stocks at exactly the WRONG time haha.
the bad news is that your savings, shares and pensions are lost.
the good news is, you can get the same amount back in CBDC.
Not yet they aren't, do you have a crystal ball. Do you know something the rest of us don't know
What on earth have you invested in? Ive made 10% in 3 months. Not a bragg, an example of where you should be.
@@crimsonpirate1710 Where are you currently invested, if you don't mind me asking
consider putting a compressor on the audio track and then normalize it. my volume has reached max but your voice sill sounds too quiet.
Thank you @MrNaufan i'm adjusting it for the next video
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the bad news is that your savings, shares and pensions are lost.
the good news is, you can get the same amount back in CBDC.
I feel UK growth is going to be practically zero maybe even some negative periods beyond 2024
No one knows what will happen, the first law of investments and in life. Try some diversity?
Longer term the impact of A. I. will be hugely beneficial for lowering costs of almost every business in the world, I’m not taking in terms of just labour. In terms of speed, efficiencies and effectiveness . It is as important as the invention of the steam engine. Every industry will have wider margins . Unfortunately the holders of A. I,. Are American. So I’ve switched mainly to the U, S. and some global. The U.K. I’m out. It’s gone. No goods exports, a stranglehold on small businesses and a crisis in the £ because of the negative trade balance. Anyone holding £ assets must be mad. By the way I’d never touch trading 212 with a barge pole. It’s immature and just a platform. No skills, no insights of their own. The elephant in the room that you’ve never mentioned: Why have Central Banks and Governments used monetarist inflation solutions of demand- pull interest rates when the problem has obviously been cost- push external factors ? Wrong solution. What happens if oil and all other input costs triple ? Going to triple mortgages ? Meanwhile China can rot. It grew on American and European consumerism. Then copied and pasted all of the Wests imports of technology. Hope it fails. Finally ‘ employment has stayed low ‘ is plainly wrong . What’s shored it up is ‘ gig work ‘ . In China you are counted as being employed if you have worked for just 1 day in a month. The Chinese unemployment problem is 3X official figures. Shenzhen, Guangdong and Shanghai are ghost towns as factories and foreigners have fled the regime.
tight labour market? sounds strange considering the reported size of immigration ???
Just because there is a lot of people does not mean that there is a lot of people that are willing to work or that there is a lot of people that have the skills that businesses require.
@@petermorris3665 as you must know that the so called "skill shortages" are a myth perpetuated by various shady businesses benefitting from offshoring, or straight import of labour from countries with much lower cost of living and lenient certification standards. the under-employment and unemployment of permanent residents is a real problem of the western world, which is the double whammy on the public finances - because lower wages mean lower tax intake and as for the welfare costs ...
main takeaway: increase your wages or suffer
Pandemic and Ukraine, how come the Israeli war in GAZA was not mentioned. Oh! that's what gave a boost to the markets in Dec 2023!
All weather portfolios= DIA, SPYD, SPY
... if you believe gov stats ;)
Game over for Tesla!
He always picks investments where history is already priced in.
Cost of living crisis caused by Andrew Bailey being incapable of doing the one job he is tasked with and letting interest rates remain at zero, when inflation started climbing particularly after Dishy Rishy pumped billions into the economy!
Bailey then had the nerve to blame the weather in Morocco for the increase in the price of groceries 🤣
It's a group of experts , not just one person.
The truss budget started it all ....
Bailey hasn’t got a clue blaming everyone else other then himself? I guess he doesn’t have too worry on his fat paycheck.
@aerial558 I'm certain he can spell better than you.
@@johnristheanswer Thanks for the English lesson
What fools take notice of the IMF ?
Hi @MARTINA-gc3tq it's strange that you mention that. I've only started paying attention to them since I was vaccinated against COVID. I'm sure that's just a coincidence... Thanks, Ramin.
I remember the 1970s when UK inflation was 28%; Dennis Healey took their advice and we avoided 1923 German style hyperinflation.
Why are you explaining that fractional shares are a great idea with trading 212 when HMRC dont agree. As they wont allow them in an ISA. Speak up. You appear not to care about us. Just your paymaster.
Opt out of the magic unlimited money. Buy bitcoin
That'll fix it LOL
Bitcoin ..na I'll give that a swerve I think .
why is bitcoins logo a real gold coin ?
its like they are trolling you.
@@pip1723 I'll make sure to remind you of this comment in a couple of years.
The criticism of “Fiat” money is that it has no intrinsic value, often the reason people say they buy Bitcoin. Which of course also has no intrinsic value, added to which no one knows who produces it and how much they will produce. I therefore find bitcoin very amusing.
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