Is it Time to Buy Tesla Stock? Part 2 of 2
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- Опубликовано: 7 фев 2025
- Tesla (TSLA) stock is down over 67% from its high. Is it cheap enough to buy or should investors wait for a bigger margin of safety?
✅ WATCH PART 1 FIRST: • Is it Time to Buy Tesl...
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Adam Khoo, one of the rare Singapore youtubers with objective and informative content and does not stop to talk about why you should sign up for Webull
Or Moomoo 😅
Never heard him about Webull....
Great to see this video also months later
7:46 you compared Tesla market share to big auto but you were comparing EV's to gas cars. Misleading. You buried the important point, Tesla has over 3 percent mkt share of auto industry selling EV's! If this grows two 10 percent when they ramp up their two factories and add more factories, the other guys will be forced to enter a market where they can't be profitable, making EV's. Doesn't look good for big auto, and Tesla keeps cutting costs. That's the value of Tesla.
EV infrastructure is not there yet to support such growth.
It is not bad for tesla to be cutting its prices with the release of its new affordable model in order to continue competing. That was the vision from the start. All things good for tesla and ev technology in general.
Thanks for this analysis, it is funny how many Tesla fanboys are starting to just see reality after 70% decline of Tesla
TSLA fanboy here but patiently on the sidelines until this week grabbed a couple of shares here at fair value territory. It was really cringe… I know people who constructed a 100% TSLA portfolio in 2021 and people who couldn’t stop levering up to buy this stock
The future of EV like self driving mode, hasnt been considered. I think Tesla will be a leading power in this domain.
Thank you Adam for sharing your video on Tesla. But I have to disagree with your thesis simply because Tesla stock was arguably, for so many people including myself, the greatest missed opportunity investment of the last decade. Investors are always looking for the next Tesla that returns exponentially in the long-term; but based on your narrow thesis and metrics, a stock like Tesla would never be in your radar as a possible investment just even five years ago, and much less at the IPO.
how much weightage should i gave to USP of a product or business while pick stocks for investment? is USP replace Economic MOAT
I was a TSLA bear for a long time, in fact I got massively burned in 2020/2021 shorting TSLA. It finally hit my price targets on the down side this year but I couldn't hold out. Now, TSLA is looking really good at 110 and 90, for a nice swing trade up to 160ish. Would have to see where overall market is at that price to decide to stay long or go short again.
Elon said they are not going to sell car in the long run but selling AI technology in the coming future. In my opinion, the real power of tesla is their self driving tech which nobody in the industry can beat them on this.
The price to replace a battery in an ev? Alot! Good video.
May I know where can I get the calculator for intrinsic value? Thanks
Do you do video on stock you own or stock we should buy and price point?
Can I Buy your value excel sheet please?
Adam, the $7500 price cut in USA from now till 31-Dec is to encourage people to take delivery earlier, so as to not wait till 1st Jan 2023 for additional gov grants. Still, its 10% more expensive vs a year ago even after the $7500 discount. That's due to them increasing price more than 7x in the last 18 months.
But yes the demand is indeed softening in China, and that can only be resolved with a new sub-30k model which is in the pipeline.
What product does not have softening demand in China amidst its 3 year lockdown?
So demand for teslas is declining hence the price reduction. Tesla stock is a bubble stock from Fed stimulus money.
Is the sub-30k model going to take as long as the cybertruck (announce in 2019). Going to be 4 years soon and nothing so far and not even setup for production at all.
@@walden6272 Cybertruck wise, I think giga Texas is almost ready to start production pending finalisation on some minor details. If I had to make an educated guess I don’t think the sub-30k will take anywhere as much time as CT given it’s far less complex and also the urgency in getting it out.
@@meditationnostalgia7136 lol can’t speak for industries there cuz I don’t know. But for the the auto industry, BYD is still growing quickly. You can take a look at the China vehicle registration numbers.
Excellent explination!
Conclusion ?
Buy or not ?
Thank u
You are great Adam. Great advice and congrats on Nike crushing this earnings
Like your vide, and thanks for all the info. This would be true only, if Tesla was just a car company. They are much bigger than that
i heard on TV that 6,6 mln options bet for TSLA up till new year.... Did you noticed it???
Please discuss this bet.
THANKS ALOT
Thanks for covering 🙏
So true, Tesla brand equity declining due to Tesla CEO antagonizing a segment of customers through politically fueled tweets. Additionally, Tesla quality is questionable compared to Japanese manufacturers. Finally, EV infrastructure is not growing fast enough to support 50% annual growth in the industry. Also, Tesla was a bubble stock from Fed stimulus money. Fair price is less than $30 a share.
Great video! I really appreciate the thorough market analysis you provided. It's clear that you put a lot of time and effort into researching and presenting the information. Your insights were extremely helpful and I will definitely be checking out more of your content in the future. Keep up the fantastic work! (I used chatGPT to write this comment because I'm not a native english speaker lol)
Bottom was in for TSLA when they put out that "news story" where the tesla drove off a cliff and "crashed" but everyone survived.
The intrinsic value for many companies fails to work magic. Two example like Alibaba and Meta!
Markets take time. Successful investors know this
Can you do an analysis on NVDA and ISRG? Thanks
I see Tesla case exactly same as Apple, as long as they produce the best products in the market, they will be fine.
So true. Conservatives buy iphones even though apple is out of their mind liberal.
are u joking? Teslas are average. and they make no trucks. Tesla gonna bust. the Model X is nothing v BMW iX. and every single year other producers have new models planned. Tesla has no new models planned. The Model S needs a proper refresh...but its a nice market.
James have you driven Tesla before with the full self drive capabilities? If yes please elaborate, if not pls drive first before you compare with bmw
@@champchan3085 Hummm… Tesla FSD, full self driving, is not 100% ready, yet. That’s what Tesla said our human intervention is needed for my family’s Model S to 3.
Don’t worry, if Tesla fails like SolarCity (remember Solar City was bankrupt before it’s being rolled into Tesla). Tesla can be rolled into SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Company, or Zip2 etc… Any IPO on one those aforementioned companies will attract typical retail stock buyers. We are know Elon lies by now but who cares if he can just pump his company stocks up. However, no one knows better than Elon when to sell his stocks than himself, just don’t be the bag holder-Good luck on this.
In most countries patrol station is quite unsafe place at night. You do need bit luck by spending hours charging EV
I have been following Adam for long time and real like his classes. But I do notice that Adam rarely adjust his opinion and admit mistakes. This video ignored a key area of Tsla, innovation. It has software subscription income, robotic AI, protential to link with starlink and twitter. Their innovation to cut manufacture cost is bejond immagination. I will not view it only as a car company, but also Software, Robotic and ect.
Where is all the proof this new technology? Elon showed a robot that was so basic. Tesla self driving software is causing crashes. Elon is a very good scammer, he knows how to sell false promises. Tesla stock price is overvalued. Tesla is only a car company.
And he invested in META that everyone knows the CEO, Mark Zuc.
Yes, Tesla has those other attributes that you mentioned but they make up a very small percentage of its income. Tesla isn't anything more than a car company for the same reason that Ford and Chevrolet aren't considered racing companies because they have a small racing division.
He made a mistake in math lol. Tesla is losing market share because other car maker start making EV car. FYI, if you are the only one who is selling EV, you have 100% market. However, if another car maker starts making EV, even if he only sells one car, you still lose market share. Hopefully Adam can understand this simple math😂
Tesla has collected the largest amount of data through its car. It desiged the most high performance chip in the chip industry and built very powerful data center such that it has protential growth is compatible with the key holdings in Adam's UIP. Although it is the last to drop, but the amount of drop is no differnce that Google, Meta and AMZN. After 70% drop, I will prefer TSLA as compared with META.
Thanks for the video Professor Piranha 🙏
Adam, you totally ignored the fact that Tesla’s Mega factory at Lathrop California started to ramp up in 2023 to such an extent that Tesla’s energy division will generate $10 billion net income a year by selling Mega Packs. Mega California’s annual capacity is 40 Gigawatts. Once you do your due diligence to study Tesla energy, you will change your mind. Tesla is a battery company, not a car company.
You are very smart Adam. Great video.
Thank you kindly
Does the analysis factor in a recession?
Tesla model y price in March 2021 was $49k; same car in December 2022 at $65k. Even with the 7500 discount today, Tesla price is still over 10% higher than in 2021. Tesla still have the pricing power. Competitors will get crushed.
Higher prices in a recession environment = drop in sales. BYD will eat Tesla market share even more next year.
It is hard to sell Model Y in the future even at $49k when there is huge increase in supply by the competitors. It is Tesla who is to get crushed not the competitors.
Go and take a look at TSLA closed at $125.35.
Great video, it closed at 125.35 today, but now after hours it up to 129.5
Nibble if you believe in the company, and buy seriously if you see it drop support levels to 110 100
Double discount today on Tesla
I sold all my Tesla shares months ago. But I bought back 5 token shares today when it fell down to $124.78 because I think although the political drama surrounding Elon is tragic, it is tragic only on an emotional level. In the end, everybody responds to economics. That is the reason why liberals put gas into their tanks just like the MAGA mob. Along this line of reasoning that will be the reason why eventually even the MAGA mob will buy EVs because EVs just make economic sense. So the political drama will be a short-term distraction. The real moat for Tesla I think is the super charger network. If you buy a GM or Ford and go on a road trip or live in an apartment complex, you will be screwed. Electrify America, Blink, and ChargePoint are all unreliable and agonizing to use. Tesla's network is the only fast, reliable network around the world. At Tesla supercharger network's growth rate, Tesla might as well just make money as the new fuel station network for all EV brands. Another point to consider is overseas, people don't really care about American domestic politics.
I'm agree pe 45 is too high, so future decline is probably.
Do you avoid wash sales at all costs or if you see a bargain you take it and deal with the tax loss?
Hi Adam can you do a video on apple
Sold on 22 millions shares on 12.12.2022
1+2+1+2+2+0+2+2 = 12
What's he up 2?
If u consider big data servers the monopoly and moat of Microsoft Amazon google, consider again
Adam, I really appreciate your stock analysis, but saying Elon Musk promotes some right wing extremist conspiracy theory is total bs!
thanks for sharing!
It's a young company with a very high growth rate. Let's not forget currency inflation and their technological competitive advantages as the crown jewel of the EV/AV world. It could easily trade back up to 20% above fair value and never look back, and your opportunity is gone just like that.
Musks unpredictability and foray into Twitter is a huge concern for anyone investing in Tesla.
Your future outlook on tesla’s moat is greatly distorted on a margin and technology level. Also gives too much credit to the future of the “competition”.
Tesla no doubt an excellent innovation but with many competent competition coming up to grab market share Tesla must introduce hard to beat features in Tesla real fast. Some of them could be more AI, extremely longer driving life battery preferably battery getting charged while car is driven. I wonder why Elon has not integrated some of solar panels technology in Tesla to have it charge while driven . This could be extremely useful in Asia, Africa, middle east etc
It could become good trading stock below 80 like Amzn, Google, Meta and soon apple coming down to same price range if S&P does go down to around 3200. I would rather bet on likes of Google , Amzn and spy for investigation rather than investing in Tesla due to it narrow moat and several upcoming competitions
Cutting prices does not just mean Tesla are wary of losing market share.On the contrary,and it should have been pointed out,is the fact that Management have their ears to the ground,and are being proactive,not necessarily reactive.
At the end of the day Tesla knows that the public have faith in them,and that twittering don't rule the whole world!
Cannot blame Tesla for being thrashed even Alphabet, Adbe and etc have been hammered hard also.
Thank you Adam,
great
Are charging stations a moat? I don’t think so in Europe. But idk how Chinese charging stations are operated
It's the greatest experience out there for the cheapest price with subscription
Now is the worst time to buy Tesla! This is going to be a big year for the EV market with lots of new competition from Ford, Rivian, and even Chevy. I bet it's going to bottom around 80.00 this summer.
He has been against tesla since it was $50B company. The flaw in his analysis is that he hasn’t done enough research into the company. He doesn’t understand how they innovate in manufacturing to drive cost down and keep operating flat for that tech-like margin.
No value in AI then?
Not when they don't work as intended. I remember when Tesla promoted the idea they would be full autonomous driving by 2020. They are still no where close to it. And the customers who bought into this hype paid for with their lives.
10:16 - yes, he is alienating democrats, but warming up to republicans, so maybe he is trying to expand the appeal of his brand to more people? Does it make sense, maybe in the end this is a net gain? Could this be of benefit to Tesla after all?
Price cut will increase sales. Just ordered a model Y for the wife. Competition isn't as good, and the dealerships suck. My next car will be the "model 2". Also, we're Republicans.
88 is good price to buy the dip
Tesla only wants 20% market share. The plan was always to lower the costs of their vehicles and increase their margins through manufacturing. Engine vehicles are going away, governments in China, Europe, and U.S. sates are pushing for EVs or outright banning engine cars.
Other companies are struggling to even mass produce EVs profitably. Toyota are still thinking that hydrogen and Hybrid car investment is the correct route. GM aren't trying to be competitive nor Ford or GM.
Startup EV makers have the issue you spoke of in the last video. Most startup automakers go bankrupt. Companies like Lucid, Neo, Rivian, Xpeng are promising but they've got a long road ahead before mass production and profitably.
BYD and HyundiaKIA are the only two other car makers that I'm confident in tbh.
Plus you're missing their energy business. Stuff like FSD could well pan out. But I don't know if it's sensible to buy the stock just based on that potential. I see it as a nice bonus. Thanks for your take Adam.
Hydrogen is better than battery for commercial heavy vehicles
@Leonard Lee Green hydrogen suffers from huge energy losses by being made and compressed. You lose 70% of the energy you put in, in order to use in a fuel cell. Hydrogen is also a pernicious and volatile gas that's difficult to pipe without leakage. Hydrogen also has too much volume per unit of energy to be transported as a liquid, for 1 tanker of diesel to be matched by hydrogen in equivalent energy, you'd need 18 tankers. The hydrogen industry makes hydrogen at the site it is going to be used because its so difficult to transport, so for every hydrogen fuel station you'd also need to build a hydrogen plant which is incredibly expensive. It simply doesn't make economic sense to use hydrogen over electric or even fossil fuels, considering the overwhelming majority of hydrogen is made with methane gas.
EV busses and haulage trucks already exist. Battery technology is still improving too. With hydrogen, the fuel efficiency can only get to 40%. it's just a waste of electricity or methane.
BYD will not be profitable once the Chinese Government stop funding the EV manufacturers starting 2023. Warren Buffett has been dumping this stock
Hi Adam. Great video. Former VMI student of yours here. I am just trying to understand why you have used free cash flow as opposed to operating cash flow in the Intrinsic Value calculation. Operating CF is < 1.5x net income (albeit by a small amount). That change moves my intrinsic value from $225 to $130 for a very marginal call. Perhaps somewhere in between is most accurate? Thanks in advance
I mean free cash flow is all you’re (as an investor) left with after the company spends their money on capex. If you’re only accounting for operating cash flow, that’s simply just naive because you fail to take into consideration the amount of investment in property and equipment it takes to generate more future cash flows for the company. The intrinsic value of a business should only take into the consideration the present & future “free cash flow” it generates because that’s simply all you’re being left with
After your analysis Tesla at 122 😂 (22/12/22)
Great analysis. I completely agree with the point you made about Liberals and Democrats being more likely to buy EV's. Before Musk bought Twitter i was buying all Tesla dips but have since sold all shares because i then realized even geniuses can make stupid moves.
It's a nonsensical point. Tesla's TAM in the long run is literally all of humanity and pretty much every single republican will be buying an EV within the next 10 years or so. You don't even need to speculate on whether the market will make that happen naturally, because governments are forcing it to happen.
Still not a smart move. Apple has both a Conservative and Democrat base. Bringing politics into it does more harm that wasn't neccessary.
NIO and some other China companies competitors to Tesla 😮
Adam you are worry about margins and then in your Calculation you put 27.5% fcf grown for next 5 years and 15% growth for the following 5. Thier backlog is non existant they are cutting work force, they are cutting prices at that is likely just the begging of cutting prices. The next 1-2 years we may even see revenue decline with margins. If they try to grow by having new products like Cyber truck, Semi ect. They benefited greatly from free money and extremly low interest rates more than almost anybody else. Will take huge capex they may get to loss teritorries again. That means after that they continue to grow with 50% sorry but seems impossible to me. I think you are too optimistic and your valueation should come down a lot more. I personaly think it's still over priced.
You can't possible believe that bullshit.
Cybertruck won't get made, I'm calling that now. They may make just a few of them to fool the public but ulimately they will drop the idea because the demand for cybertruck is extremely low compare to their other models. And the Tesla Semi will also get drop because it's a terrible design. Truckers are calling out Tesla to release the weight of the truck so they can determine how much paid load they can carry. The weight of Tesla Semi has to be huge or else why are they hiding that info? Also truckers are pointing out the major flaw of the cabin design, they say having the trucker sit in the middle is stupid because they can't just reach out through the window to hand their paperworks at Stations, each time they have to do anything they have to get off the seat which will annoy these overweight truckers. Also currently there is no charging stations for Semi. And if there is no charging stations for Semis then no way Truckers will buy them at all. And Tesla has no plans to built any charging station for Semis. Another concern truckers have with a battery power Semi is how well can it handle the extreme heat and cold conditions under stress from paid load? Will the batteries degrade fast? Will it spontaneously combust due to continuous driving? Many unanswered questions. Truckers are not stupid to buy a EV Truck if their current deisel trucks can do the job well and the EV trucks has so many disadvantages especially being too heavy that it can't carry much paid load which would be less profitable for truckers who get paid by the weight.
The brand is elon - and if Elon bails out then the whole stock will plunge.
I was shocked when you uttered the words, "You don't care who the CEO is" . I couldn.t believe that your vocal cords allowed you to utter such words and didn't instantaneously develope laryngitis.
All companies evalulate their employees on performance. The CEO is no different. You need to evaluate them to determine if they are leading the company in the right direction and are building a strong team behind them to build future success. The CEO is like the captain of a ship, he knows he need a competent crew to handel the worst storms that the ocean can throw at them otherwise the ship is doomed. Having an idiot in charge will only lead to shipwreck with the crew being eaten by sharks or Cannibals. If your in the Amazon it could be Piranhas.
almost hit $110 already 🤣
i bought 66 shares at $185, what should I do? thanks
If you're an investor then hold it IMO. The company is doing better year over year. Stocks go down in bear markets.
You'll probably lose at least half of that value by next year. You can always take it as a lesson not to buy hype. Always look at the fundamentals of a company, is the valuation justify for the earnings? A good company can still be way overpriced. And Tesla is way overpriced. Once it drop below $50, then it becomes more reasonable. If next year, Tesla sales drops then $50 is too overpriced, it will have to drop down to $20.
I think Adam is doing a mistake here... He thinks Tesla is a brand of car and he doesnt get the whole picture here....In my opinion Tesla which i do not own will be very powerful in the futur about data /energy / transport / space / insurances / networking / robotics and IA much more ....i think that company is so innovative it could be a threat for the world in the futur....
Did you buy tesla at 102!?
Tesla is a no buy . Go look at Baba instead and probably will make its second higher low tonight .
We are doomed 🥶🥶
Tesla hit around $108.00 today, did you buy any?
We thank you Master Adam:)
👍👍👍
Tesla will hit $88 again after another stock split (5 for 1 basis) in 2025😂
If incumbents can’t defend their turf which they have been sitting on for past 40 years, can they even compete with Tesla? China EVs? ..oppo, xiaomi? ..laughable