On Abrupt Rises in Global Ocean Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content: Spikes in 2024 and 2023

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  • Опубликовано: 13 янв 2025

Комментарии • 117

  • @PaulHBeckwith
    @PaulHBeckwith  15 часов назад +9

    On Abrupt Rises in Global Ocean Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content: Spikes in 2024 and 2023
    Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. I wish you all the best for 2025 in our ongoing climate casino.
    Ocean temperatures hit record highs in 2024, study finds
    phys.org/news/2025-01-ocean-temperatures-highs.html
    Peer-reviewed scientific paper just out on ocean heat content: Open Access; free to all...
    Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024
    link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3
    Abstract
    Heating in the ocean has continued in 2024 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, despite the transition from an El Niño to neutral conditions. In 2024, both global sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached unprecedented highs in the historical record. The 0-2000 m OHC in 2024 exceeded that of 2023 by 16 ± 8 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules, with a 95% confidence interval) (IAP/CAS data), which is confirmed by two other data products: 18 ± 7 ZJ (CIGAR-RT reanalysis data) and 40 ± 31 ZJ (Copernicus Marine data, updated to November 2024). The Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Ocean also experienced record-high OHC values in 2024. The global SST continued its record-high values from 2023 into the first half of 2024, and declined slightly in the second half of 2024, resulting in an annual mean of 0.61°C ± 0.02°C (IAP/CAS data) above the 1981-2010 baseline, slightly higher than the 2023 annual-mean value (by 0.07°C ± 0.02°C for IAP/CAS, 0.05°C ± 0.02°C for NOAA/NCEI, and 0.06°C ± 0.11°C for Copernicus Marine). The record-high values of 2024 SST and OHC continue to indicate unabated trends of global heating.
    Wikipedia page on ENSO:
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation
    Wikipedia page on PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation):
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
    Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. I wish you all the best for 2025 in our ongoing climate casino.

  • @Livingthewild
    @Livingthewild 14 часов назад +37

    Even if we could engineer our way out of this climate disaster, we still face an accelerating mass extinction event beyond compare. Our civilization is based on drawing down the Earths resourses; an end game. What do we do about that? We're not willing to control our species population, let alone talk about it. What do we do about that? I could go on, but I'll spare you. This civilization sure feels terminal to me, but maybe I wasn't in line when the blinders were handed out.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 14 часов назад +6

      23 countries are going to lose half their populations the next 80 years, China 5-600 million, the world had a 400% growth rate the last 80 years and the growth the next 80 years will be lucky to be 10% of that.
      Last year the world grew enough food for the entire world to gain weight and the only not changing, is us. It's not about the amount or people per se, it's about our system changes that are needed and the end of capitalism and how to move to a low energy lifestyle, immediately, and nobody seems to be talking about this direct avenue of results.

    • @johnnolang3734
      @johnnolang3734 14 часов назад

      For a long time I have been saying that I can't think of a problem humans have that isn't a direct result of there being way too many of us. Earth will be here for billions of years yet despite what we do so the planet isn't in any danger. although there may not be any life on it.

    • @Livingthewild
      @Livingthewild 13 часов назад +3

      @antonyjh1234 No worries, nature will clean up the mess, as we see.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 12 часов назад +1

      @@Livingthewild You can see the end of the world and the extinction of everything before you can see system change?
      Edit : If everything is choice, which it is, why can't we choose a different way before we say it is terminal? Why keep the blinkers on?

    • @Hhllbb2476
      @Hhllbb2476 12 часов назад +2

      Ending capitalism seems like a tall order. Nature may be up to the task. I found The World Without Us by Alan Weismann to be an oddly reassuring read.

  • @tylermcneil4076
    @tylermcneil4076 15 часов назад +26

    Thanks, Beckwith! I needed this. Keep up the great work!

  • @DiscipleOfHeavyMeta1
    @DiscipleOfHeavyMeta1 14 часов назад +15

    We're definitely hitting 2°C before 2030. Mitigation has *failed* . It's too late for that. We need comprehensive adaptation on every level for a world that could eventually be up to 10°C warmer.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 13 часов назад +10

      There was no mitigation, none as all green power has just been an add on. For efficiency of mitigation to happen there has to be saving of energy, overall.

    • @unbiasedthoughts7875
      @unbiasedthoughts7875 13 часов назад

      10C is extinction for humanity and most other complex life forms. Smoke em’ if ya got em’

    • @grahamlindsay1263
      @grahamlindsay1263 13 часов назад +4

      I like to refer to that is getting ready for the inevitable

    • @brianwheeldon4643
      @brianwheeldon4643 8 часов назад +2

      Western Europe is already at 2.75deg. Any talk of holding to 2deg, just nah. 3 degrees by 2100, just nah. 5deg by 2100 is closer than 3 degrees.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 4 часа назад

      @@brianwheeldon4643 This is what I don't get, the heat stays in the northern hemisphere and the average for all of it is 2.28 for land and ocean, I think 2.97 for the land, why they don't use separate measurements instead of a global average which includes the cooler southern hemisphere. Mentioning a global average of 1.5 while the northern hemisphere is almost double that seems deceptive more than anything to the real picture.

  • @ravingcyclist624
    @ravingcyclist624 14 часов назад +9

    Excellent video! Cooling was also affected by large hurricanes: Beryl, Helene, etc. They released a lot of heat from the ocean. This paper used the term "Global Heating". I'm going to start using that. It's better than Global Warming. This paper also listed catastrophes. Drought, etc. That's more meaningful to humans than numbers. If people could see a progressive loss of food sources by drought. A loss of property because of fires. A loss of property because of storms. Increase in disease because of loss of sanitation. Etc. That might make the situation more real to them.

    • @Hhllbb2476
      @Hhllbb2476 12 часов назад +1

      One would think the insurance industry must have good figures on all that. Their share of insurable properties is in decline which means they’ll squeeze the hell out of those who remain. Gnarly poker game. Wars and instability abroad continue to prop up US capital markets as intended.

    • @cyberfunk3793
      @cyberfunk3793 3 часа назад

      @@Hhllbb2476 You think Putin starts wars to prop up US capital markets?

  • @brianwheeldon4643
    @brianwheeldon4643 8 часов назад +5

    "We're going to lose this planet to chaos." I couldn't agree more Paul.

  • @punditgi
    @punditgi 13 часов назад +6

    Paul, if the USA is crapping out for research, tell us how Canada is doing. No 51st state! Vive le Canada! 🇨🇦

  • @abody499
    @abody499 15 часов назад +36

    Cognitive power isn't dropping because of co2 - it's dropping because public education doesn't develop it.

    • @justmenotyou3151
      @justmenotyou3151 14 часов назад

      Studies have found that test scores goodown at 600 ppm CO2 in a classroom setting. Who knows how continuous 420 ppm CO2 is affecting our brains since our species has never existed in under these CO2 levels.

    • @Hhllbb2476
      @Hhllbb2476 13 часов назад +15

      That and PFAS, metals, and poor soil nutrients to name a few.

    • @WarblesOnALot
      @WarblesOnALot 13 часов назад

      G'day,
      You forgot
      Watching Television before learning to read.
      You forgot Long-Stay Infant Daycare, rather than being
      Parented in the home by Family & Neighbours & Friends...
      Bad, Negligent, Abusive
      Parenting
      Is
      Role-modelled &
      Imprinted ;
      Leading to
      Intergenerational
      Bad, Negligent, Abusive
      Parenting..
      Two-Income Families slaving away to service their Debts & Bills leaves their Children to raise themselves by playing Video Games in their Bedrooms, before going out to get 3 Part-time Casual Jobs at Minimum Wages in the Gig-EcoGnomie while trying to pay for their Phone-Contract - because that keeps the Multinationals profitable and paying Dividends to the Grandparents of the kids who can't read -
      Because their Grandparents
      Are their
      Playlunch...
      30 years before the grandkids were
      Born.
      Who
      Failed to
      Educate their offspring ;
      What, actually, did
      You
      Do...?
      Asking for
      Generations yet
      Unborn....
      Such is life,
      Have a good one.....
      Stay safe.
      ;-p
      Ciao !

    • @jamesharkins6799
      @jamesharkins6799 12 часов назад +1

      ​@@Hhllbb2476 along with glyphosate, microplastics and seed oils

    • @CHIEF_420
      @CHIEF_420 11 часов назад

      🧂

  • @Hhllbb2476
    @Hhllbb2476 13 часов назад +9

    I could be mistaken but I don’t recall you mentioning that the oceans’ ability to continue soaking up heat should diminish as there is a growing parity in ocean and atmospheric temperatures, correct? This will also contribute to rather shocking air temperature increases going forward. Is there a graphic of the oceans’ ability to absorb heat over time (past & future)? TY.

  • @johnnolang3734
    @johnnolang3734 13 часов назад +6

    Your maths is pretty good. Its 1.243 miles although I understand 2 km better. June 2024 - CO2 reached 427 ppm. The tundra is melting and releasing small amounts of methane that can't do anything but rise into the trillions of tonnes that are there. I am becoming more pessimistic about humanity's future by the day.

  • @lordphil456
    @lordphil456 3 часа назад +1

    A climate scientist here in Belgium recently said 'everyone do your own thing, we have warned you enough i am out'

  • @entropy2644
    @entropy2644 14 часов назад +8

    Thank you, Paul

  • @JackRowsey
    @JackRowsey 15 часов назад +5

    Thank you Paul.
    With ENSO going neutral in 2024, I’m surprised we actually beat the El Niño year in 2023. El Niño ended in April/May 2024.

  • @gustavolara9919
    @gustavolara9919 13 часов назад +4

    In 1961, the Twilight Zone had an episode (The Midnight Sun) about the Earth being too hot. Too bad multiple generations ignored the warnings.

  • @michaelschiessl8357
    @michaelschiessl8357 13 часов назад +2

    Many thanks Paul great information and graphs and charts.. thanks for sharing.

  • @Jaopazo
    @Jaopazo 12 часов назад +2

    Thanks a lot for this! really need this kind of content. Greetings from Chile

  • @YTUser_999
    @YTUser_999 10 часов назад +6

    Guy McPherson is looking more and more right 😶 sure his dates may be a little out of range because he's compiling all the data together and making his own assesment from it. 2C?!? We'll be like chickens in the oven after that. We'll probably blow right past 2C and head towards 2.5C/3C and that's also not factoring in the global aerosol masking effects.

  • @punditgi
    @punditgi 14 часов назад +7

    Paul, forget Imperial. It's a dud. Stick to metric! Oh, and we are doomed! 😮

  • @MrParondo
    @MrParondo 15 часов назад +12

    Yes we are losing the planet. We did not communicate enough on polution, for most people it is incompréhensible what is happening, we should focus on aspect that everybody understand. Polution. Surpopulation. Animal life. Ecosystems. Instead of trying to explain scientific modeling to the general public. For most people a difference of 5 degrés is not alarming, for a scientific it is. But most people are practical creatures, they won't reason that 5 degrés is the différence between the ice age and the roman peak in temperature. ❤ love you work though, thank you and sorry for my mood.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 14 часов назад +2

      You say not to explain it and then they say they won't reason five degrees...?

    • @MrParondo
      @MrParondo 13 часов назад +2

      @antonyjh1234 I meant that a crowd of people won't understand the risk of a global increase of 5 celsius. The crowd may understand the différence between an ice age and a warm period in history. A crowd understand situations in which lots of humans were involved, with example of their lives and predicament. Therefore I believe that the scientific communauté should have communicate more on that aspect.

    • @CHIEF_420
      @CHIEF_420 11 часов назад

      ​@@MrParondo🧂

    • @MrParondo
      @MrParondo 11 часов назад

      @@CHIEF_420 ☃️🌊❄🌧🌡😈📍⚰

    • @Hhllbb2476
      @Hhllbb2476 10 часов назад

      Most don’t seemed concerned that our hearts, lungs, breasts, and penises are turning to plastic. All I see are adds for full body deodorants filled with phthalate fragrances. Criminal corporate negligence.

  • @PWALPOCO
    @PWALPOCO 14 часов назад +3

    Thank you again, Paul

  • @Bob-p2q9q
    @Bob-p2q9q 10 часов назад +2

    Are the thermometers today as accurate as the ones used 1 thousand years ago,2 thousand years ago?

  • @dodgygoose3054
    @dodgygoose3054 11 часов назад +2

    The only way will corporations & governments actually do anything when they are informed that they are looking at the end of insurance....
    As that was their PROFIT failsafe ....

  • @bozoldier
    @bozoldier 11 часов назад +2

    Wondering the role of things like Milanković cycles in the ups and downs of the ocean energy content...

  • @comalopardulos
    @comalopardulos 14 часов назад +4

    Reading two books at once, Mcphersons bad mouths Mann and tit for tat Mann bad mouths McPherson, funny.

  • @DiscipleOfHeavyMeta1
    @DiscipleOfHeavyMeta1 14 часов назад +4

    So much work to do. So little being done. It's a shame.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 13 часов назад +4

      We all would be better doing a lot less, instead of saying we have to do a lot more work while continuing what we do is going to mean zero progress, we need a worldwide strike, maybe earth day/week and all people stop extra spending, would depress the economy to the point needed, emissions follow. People seem to think we can buy our way out of this and we can't earn the same amount of money if spending it all means energy is emitted. How many people will just consume less, like asked?

    • @Hhllbb2476
      @Hhllbb2476 11 часов назад +1

      @@antonyjh1234 agree. Gary Snyder said “the most radical thing we can do is stay home” and that was 50 odd years ago.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 10 часов назад

      @@Hhllbb2476 It's wild isn't it, all the marches, earth day, then they all went back to work thinking everything had been achieved and they left the same people in charge. Then no need for an amount of gold to hold society back and money got printed at a cost of four cents per hundred dollars and the 80's happened and so on, until now.
      With a quarter of society over 65 and finally getting the message, I wonder what effect that will have as they have made most of their large purchases in life.
      If in USA, all crop and animal produce is 10% of emissions, in a tank of diesel is the same amount of energy as my total electrical energy for 3.2 months, in a sub tropical place, with the air com going 24-7. A huge amount of energy is emitted to go plant tree's, we could do nothing and achieve much more. We need to stop driving for pleasure and driving to a march may not be the benefit we imagine, overall.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 10 часов назад

      @@Hhllbb2476 It's wild isn't it, all the marches, earth day, then they all went back to work thinking everything had been achieved and they left the same people in charge. Then no need for an amount of gold to hold society back and money got printed at a cost of four cents per hundred dollars and the 80's happened and so on, until now.
      With a quarter of society over 65 and finally getting the message, I wonder what effect that will have as they have made most of their large purchases in life.
      If in USA, all crop and animal produce is 10% of emissions but in a tank of diesel is the same amount of energy as my total electrical energy for 3.2 months, in a sub tropical place, with the air com going 24-7. A huge amount of energy is emitted to go plant trees or for an ice cream, we could do nothing and achieve much more. We need to stop driving for pleasure and driving to a march may not be the benefit we imagine, overall.

    • @antonyjh1234
      @antonyjh1234 10 часов назад

      ​@@Hhllbb2476 It's wild isn't it, all the marches of the 60's and 70's, earth day, then they all went back to work thinking everything had been achieved and they left the same people in charge. Then no need for an amount of gold to hold society back and money got printed at a cost of four cents per hundred dollars and the 80's happened and so on, until now.
      With a quarter of society over 65 and finally getting the message, I wonder what effect that will have as they have made most of their large purchases in life.
      Hopefully, with worldwide population growth rate peaking already, the last 80 years was 400% and the next be lucky to be 10% of that we will see something come of it.
      If in USA, all crop and animal produce is 10% of emissions but in a tank of diesel is the same amount of energy as my total electrical energy for 3.2 months, in a sub tropical place, with the air com going 24-7. A huge amount of energy is emitted to go plant trees or for an ice cream, we could do nothing and achieve much more. We need to stop driving for pleasure and driving to a march may not be the benefit we imagine, overall.

  • @jrs77
    @jrs77 5 часов назад

    I live in Northern Europe at 62° lattitude. Currently it's +5°C and it'll stay this way until the end of the week. In the middle of Winter!!! I don't need no fancy science to tell how much the climate has changed over the last 20-30 years. We're seeing it every day when we go outside and it's accelerating. The science however is telling me why, and I'm glad there's people like you who are interested in this question.
    Keep up the good work and keep us informed.

  • @Rene-uz3eb
    @Rene-uz3eb 12 часов назад +2

    I'm a bit put off by how deep some of the warming extends (1000m or more). If the ocean doesn't have to turn over and the heat just creeps down across layers, then it's not going to take a thousand years for the heat to equilibriate

  • @Hhllbb2476
    @Hhllbb2476 13 часов назад +2

    Some may think we can reign in earth’s atmospheric temperature but I’d like to see how, with solar radiation, we plan on reigning in the oceans’ temperatures?! That’s on an altogether greater order of magnitude.

  • @shiftedclock
    @shiftedclock 13 часов назад +2

    Great video, thank you. Please please please turn the sign behind you so we can read it.

    • @PaulHBeckwith
      @PaulHBeckwith  11 часов назад +3

      You're very welcome, and I'll try to be more mindful of my surroundings when making future videos.

  • @mawkernewek
    @mawkernewek 14 часов назад +2

    16:06 amazing map projection!

  • @volkerengels5298
    @volkerengels5298 14 часов назад +4

    I see the usual "Immortal Idiots"

  • @davidwalker2942
    @davidwalker2942 14 часов назад +2

    1 zetajoule is approximately 948 billion million Btu's, yes?

  • @comalopardulos
    @comalopardulos 14 часов назад +2

    i can't find any of your books on amazon

  • @coralcomet
    @coralcomet 10 часов назад +3

    And off the cliff we go. Where we land nobody knows

    • @Michaelgrx
      @Michaelgrx 3 часа назад

      Hell is the next stop

    • @comotucovfefe4349
      @comotucovfefe4349 Час назад

      Is the Roadrunner watching us fall? We all know how that ends for the Coyote.

  • @byronbates7404
    @byronbates7404 12 часов назад +1

    Do Sun cycles run in 20-year increments? How many people have followed the farmers Almanac the last 1000 plus years at least 524 here jn the Americas ?

  • @Edo9River
    @Edo9River 11 часов назад +1

    ❤❤❤No , Paul , you’re mistaken about US science in one area, a line haas been drawn.

  • @mattockman
    @mattockman 13 часов назад +2

    Don't buy a new pair of shoes folks.

  • @Noddy2750
    @Noddy2750 9 часов назад +1

    So how come there's a rare la nina in the Pacific Ocean !

  • @trinity6993
    @trinity6993 12 часов назад +1

    Albido is that the climate libido? Jk. Seriously, though they didn't mention the melting of the permafrost? Weird.

  • @Danomax
    @Danomax 4 часа назад

    Don't worry, it will take 5000 years for the deep ocean temperatures to rise.

  • @bringhomethebasil8729
    @bringhomethebasil8729 10 часов назад +1

    We will be seeing some skinny dolphins soon if we see any at all

  • @elisabethdevyt8256
    @elisabethdevyt8256 4 часа назад

    Thanks Paul. 😢

  • @Lemmay
    @Lemmay 8 часов назад +1

    I wish you could compare the ocean's heat to bath water (98⁰F?)

  • @adriaan2618
    @adriaan2618 6 часов назад +1

    1:00 to be honest: right, left, middle, the political orientation is irrelevant. What action has been taken is too little and far too late. We should have acted 50 years ago,

  • @garthbews4863
    @garthbews4863 12 часов назад +1

    so heating not just from huge ozone burnt off by space weather, in may..that 60% loss..had no effect to you? way its worded is funny..

  • @richdiana3663
    @richdiana3663 14 часов назад +7

    Doomalists unite! Whatever.

    • @freeheeler09
      @freeheeler09 14 часов назад +5

      Do not go gentle into that good night. Rail, rail against the dying of the light!

  • @armynavymarine2
    @armynavymarine2 11 часов назад +4

    Ok so thats gonna be fun... chaos will ensue before I find love.