3 issues with what Steve said: 1. The "historically low interest rates" argument doesn't take into consideration that the INFLATION was much higher then. It's the DIFFERENTIAL between the two that we should be comparing. 2. The idea that millennials are interested in "retirement, saving for a house, and then marriage" is all missing the underlying issue that most millennials are spending on STUDENT LOAN DEBT first and hence aren't able to QUALIFY for the home prices that they can get while renting. Moreover, we have to keep in mind that millennials have the highest credit scores overall. 3. When he comments that "affordability" is not a thing. We are now (and have already in some markets) at and above the numbers where it is cheaper to rent in a safer neighborhood than to buy in a not so safe neighborhood -- something that affects millennial women primarily (since they are the gender who seek homeownership more). And finally, Steve's comments about clickbait are a bit hypocritical considering that both he and Tom have built businesses on optional services and are therefore incentivized to downplay any news about the market shifting since it would cost their businesses money.
You have good points about student debt being prioritized, however, humans are beings of behavior and habit. We’ve been taught, ultimately by our parents, that renting is “wasting” money (which it’s not) and that buying a home is the best option.
@Eric Forrest Eric Forrest 0% of her points are valid. Only around 30% of people who graduated high school this decade went to college. Before this decade it was in the 20%s and for all of the 1900's it was lower. Most people including millenials don't have college degrees and therefore don't have student debt. Plenty of people that never graduated college can afford a first home. Also older millenials are in there 30's and 10 years in plenty enough time to pay down debt while increasing income. People were paying interest rates upwards of 15% on a mortgage in the early 1980's how could you argue that is comparable with 4.5% rates. You can't. A lot of cities and states offer first time homebuyer loans and/or grants or loans that are forgivable provided the buyer is an occupier and they stay in the place for a minimum amount of time. The minimum down payment for most of these programs is as little as 3.5% Many city, states, and qualified lenders also offer down payment assistance for borrowers that can afford a mortgage but don't have a down payment. Conditions apply but they are not hard to meet and often the most sustancial condition is that they must take mandatory real estate and finance related classes. The comments made in the video about clickbait are not hypocritical if they are true. I stated no opinion only facts. They are all verifiable and you can look them up. Please do your research.
@Eric Forrest Eric Forrest do you have a link that there are 90% default rates? People like you have cried that the sky is falling every year since 2009 and it never happened. You've scared a lot of people out of making sound financial decisions and they are going to feel stupid that they were duped by you when they are older. There is going to be another recession sometime in the future but that is the nature of the economic cycle and the economy will recover just like it always does. Yes go on please explain what any of those countries circumstances which are very specific to them have to do with your fast impending doomsday scenario. The Washington Post and the BBC are about as good as predicting the coming collapse as you. People like you say it's going to collapse every year for 10 years and when it finally does and you claim it as a victory because you told everyone and they didn't listen ignoring that you were wrong for many years before the recession happened. Then when we bounce back you start saying the next one's coming right around the corner and it doesn't. That's no way to live. If 90% of the 46 million people with student debt defaulted that would be bad. I don't think that will happen but I don't have a crystal ball any more than you do. Even so people can't live there lives expecting doom and gloom around the corner, it's not healthy and won't lead to success. It is a limiting belief that leads to a life of failure and heartache. No one is saying don't be prudent. Make financial decisions that lead to growth and be aware of the downsides.
@Eric Forrest Eric Forrest you say you have not heard people cry wolf since 2009 yet you say you pay attention to financial markets, either you are being disingenuous or you have not been paying attention to financial markets very well. Anyone can turn on cnbc, Bloomberg or Fox bussines for a day and hear people talking about a crash. Anybody can read the wall st journal, new york times, or ft for a week and read negative news about how this thing, that, or the other may spell doom. Anyone reading your comments can Google "coming financial crash" or "new housing crash" and see that there are literally very very many articles a year since 2009 about the subject. Maybe you are the one out of touch. It's also disengenous for you to bring up financial planning as if I hadn't said : "No one is saying don't be prudent. Make financial decisions that lead to growth and be aware of the downsides" Your response implies I was advocating for financial illiteracy and negligence which clearly this quote indicates I was not. I do agree people should do there research which is why in my first response to you I said: "I stated no opinion only facts. They are all verifiable and you can look them up. Please do your research" You could have gone to every major city threw out the history of the US and found people who are struggling to make ends meet that does not mean that there were not people who could afford to buy homes. Likewise today you will find plenty of gen x'ers and millenials that can afford to buy a home and have made the correct prudent financial decisions in life and should not be talked out of property ownership or stocks or any sort of other proven long term asset building strategy. *disclaimer: an owner occupied house might build wealth but is not an investment and I would never claim that is is unless the owner collects rent from at least a tenant.
Great perspective. I see many agents throwing up red flags telling people to hold off. The same thing happened 5 years ago and the people that bought them are selling now with massive amounts of equity moving into larger deals. Keep it rolling
Who do you expect to buy these homes if the prices are high and interest rates are high? I'm not buying what he's saying at all. Where I live on Long Island I see the prices falling like wildfire.
@NoDramaMama 123 A flipper did a flip on a house where I live and now he's in Pre- foreclosure himself because he's not getting the offers he want. It's crazy.
Chuckey 2015 prices are dropping bc interest rates are slightly higher, inventory has become stagnant or is stagnant and demand isn’t as high as say 6 months or a year ago. It has slow down significantly. This decreases bidding wars, and home owners want to sell while they can before they lose the value of their home.
I live in LOng Island and I did notice that prices slightly went down, but I wouldn't say that they are falling like wild fire. Where are you looking to buy?
Love changing the mindset on this BIG issue! Can't wait to see how the predictions end up in reality next December. Fingers crossed for more transactions in 2019 than 2017!
Do not get into a mortgage until the prices drop by 20-30% from the all time highs...because they will. And when it does, your mortgage will not drop if you are already locked into these inflated prices. You will be stuck in that house with a negative equity and be a mortgage prisoner. Stand on the sidelines and watch how it plays out... the prices cannot go further up for sure.
Ridiculous comment think about the amount of money you will be throwing away in rent waiting for the market to drop 20-30 percent. For example I live in California I bought a home recently for 349k my rent was 25k a year. In 2 years the market crashes 20-30 percent no problem for me
Thank you Tom and Steve for this very important conversation! Although your conversation concerns the American real estate market, I, from Poland, can say that we have a very similar situation on the real estate market. Prices are rising, but we can not say that we have what in 2007. Growth is stable and not as drastic as 10 years ago. Dominika - RE/MAX Real Estate Agent Krakow Poland
2008-9 was the only housing bubble. Please don't confuse recession with housing bubble. Unless you 100 years old you did not live through 3 housing bubbles.
JJ Thanks for sharing you experience and wisdom of the market through the years. You may be right I could be wrong. Moving forward I am a very simple investor. I buy properties that appraised a little over what I pay, has opportunity for add value like renovation, convert garage to a unit that can provide additional rent in b & c neighborhoods, that cashflow higher than my debt service. My typical investment will be a 900-1000 PITI on 30 year fix after 20% down and additional 10% improvement cost. Rents for $1500 in todays market. Even if market crashes and rents falls by 50%, I will be fine. Also I am Just a blue collar truck driver in an industry that hires during a recession. Currently my company is struggling to find drivers that are willing to work for 75-85k a year with weekends off. Anyways I buy with plan to hold long term so that someday I can live off the rental income on my properties. I may not be as smart and savy as other investors out there but I always keep an open mind and only stick with what I know and like to hear positive podcasts. I am a simple minded person and can only do arithmetic level math. I don't understand complicated investments like stocks and crypto currency. I just know people will always need four walls and a roof over their heads and food on the table. Anyways All the Best to you.
Texas market is sitting. What I'm seeing is realtors over pricing their listings. Homes that are priced correctly move fast, ones that think it's still summer their homes are still sitting with no movement. Clients are seeking out builders to build rather than buy existing homes when they can have a brand new custom home for 110 a sq ft rather than $200 a sq ft for a 20 year home with no updates. A correction to fair value needs to happen in our market. Agents have become incredibly greedy.
@@novarealestate2932 agree it is both, but it is also the JOB of an agent to be brutally honest with the home owner and tell them what their home is actually worth if they want to sell. If a home is sitting for 400 days then its obviously overpriced. Homes are coming back on the market in droves due to financing and appraisals not coming in where the home is listed at.
that price per squ ft comparison in similar areas doesn't hold up at all in Nashville. In similar area... new is much more expensive than older homes per sqy ft.
@@novarealestate2932 we have to really do a great job telling the news of the recent analytics to sellers... and having them be realistic--- or let another agent take the listing
The real estate market is going to have a real problem going forward. The Milenials you are counting on to save the real estate market have two major financial handicaps. First, they are encumbered with 10s of thousands (if not 100s of thousands) of dollars worth of student loan debt. Second, the back half of the baby boom generation is still sitting in the highest paying upper level management jobs in corporate America which means the Milenials are going to have to wait longer than previous generations to get access to those high paying jobs. Student loans and delayed access to high paying jobs will severely handicap their ability to be the saviors of the real estate market you hope them to be. A recession in 2020 will just double down on that scenario.
The Millennials are told they are smart with all this inapplicable crap they are teaching them in our universities. They have no skills to produce and provide with 100,000 loan over their head. We need to stop lending them money for liberal arts education, make sure they are getting applied science or accounting, something they can earn a living with.
Glad i didn’t put myself thousands in debt. Here i am studying for my license seeing this comment is so true. I hope i have an advantage with out the debt. Lets hope all my hard work and studying pays off aswell
Interesting when you say "save the RE Market". I am in CA, the charts now (27% AFFORDABILITY, 2 months inventory, no foreclosures) do not show the RE Market needs saving. There are very few purchases/sales, but values are stable. Will appreciation halt and may we see a 5-10% drop. Possibly. Does it need saving...No
When the market change you have to change. You have to Add Value to Yourself and the Marketplace that will significant Add Value to Others. Recession Proof REI Sales Niche...
Mark Jacob who said anything about a crash? But agents that pivoted had a lot of business via short sales and foreclosures. Not to wish that on any home owner. Also the bottom feeder agents leave the market. Becoming a listing agent was key for me ... upside 😎
And if anyone remembers....about 94% of Real Estate economist got the 2008 real estate market wrong. If you look outside California, and look at the general U.S. real estate market, housing has already peaked. Look at New York. They are already in a downward trend. 2008 prices were caused by a false market which gave everyone and anyone a loan. this caused bidding wars, (not that they could actually afford the loan) and this skyrocketed housing prices and values. ARM loans came due and the market crashed. After the crash, banks then hid houses in shadow inventory to drive up prices...and it worked. Why did they do this? So they wouldn't have to sell all the forclosures on their books at rock bottom prices. Now here we are again at 2008 prices...and an stock market that never truly corrected its self (Stock Buy Backs) ..including a proper housing correction. We went straight back up. Yes people are employed, but are they making the same amount of income as before 2008??? Not really. Yet housing prices have risen back to those levels. This is why rentals boomed. Most people cant afford the current market prices. And we will either go thru another crash, or continue to rise and mostly fall until it truly corrects its self. The Ugly truth is most U.S. real estate is way overvalued and overpriced. for the average U.S. household. Everyone paid too much from about 2003-2008. And I mean everyone...Lawyers, judges, cops, nurses, teachers, gas station attendants....EVERYONE. And no one wants to hear that. "Just give me what I paid for it at least..". But guess what...Tickle Me Elmo was up to $500 at one point also....
These guys want Realtors to use SOFT words, they don’t like the word “Recession”. They want Realtors to live in Fantasy Land. They are just trying to keep their realtor clients from going into panic mode so they don’t stop using their service, training and coaching. *** The next bubble Burst is going to be MUCH bigger than the one in 2008 💥
I disagree. Language means something and the last recession coincided with the housing bubble, which was based on fraudulent lending practices. Yes, we will soften and maybe even stay flat for several years... not a bad thing when you look at how fast we've been accelerating. We as realtors need to understand and analyze granular markets, teach the truth to our buyers and sellers , and not take obvious overpriced listings...
Indeed. I live in San Diego. The average house is 650k. The average family makes 75k/yr. I’d like to see some bozo list their house for 650k when interest rates hit 7 to 10%! The fed has to raise rates to avoid inflation. The math just doesn’t add up.
renting isn’t wrong. there are definitely pros that come with renting, and pros that we put a lot more emphasis on such as not having to worry about a lawn to mow, repairs, living within a community, having nice amenities, etc. In the end most people end up in the same place: broke and dead.
RE agents are killing themselves......the only problem is too many RE agents in the market as a whole. Tighten licensing requirements, increase the price of licensing = fewer social media agents slingin houses on craigslist, and more quality RE agents with more transactions.
There are 8 billion people on the planet and all industries are shifting towards fewer jobs. This is not just a real estate problem. Every market with the exception of blue collar trade work is flooded. it shouldn't make a difference. The vast majority of RE agents are under performers. there is no coloration between quality of people and the expense of the barriers to entry. I came into RE as a career shift from a career that also had a saturated market full of hacks who were diluting the market. the barriers to entry in that industry were very high. I'm thankful I could start a career midlife in an industry without going into $80k of debt.
@@talesinart I believe you are right in part... many will become hourly sales people for hourly services but those who really differentiate ourselves will always have a niche... at least in my lifetime!
Interesting discussion. I am not a realtor but I love real estate. I may invest in real estate again some day. I used to have 20 rentals but made a change out of that for the simple life but I still love keeping tabs on the market. Take care.
Great video, Tom! Hovever, no mention of the Federal Reserve's policy of Quantitative Tightening at $50,000,000,000/month that started Oct 2018? Forget rate hikes. Sucking $50BN/month out of the economy is primary to the Real Estate industry, and we are feeling it now. Please address it. Thanks!
Thanks for the ♥, Tom, but I would REALLY like someone experienced in Monetary Policy & the Real Estate industry to address the Fed's policy of QT at $50BN/month. I value analytical commentary that is combined with actionable items in order to prosper from the changing dynamics affecting R/E. Thanks again!!!! :)
@@tonyricco777 Your question is a good one, Tony. In 2008, the Fed was able to pump tons of liquidity into the market to stabilize things. Not only are they now draining it back out, but in the event of another downturn, it doesn't look like they will be able to do again what they did back in 2008. If we are headed into a deflationary event, all commodities will take it on the chin and real estate will likely be the first to fall. If I was a real estate agent right now, I would be looking for a way to supplement my income to help weather what is coming.
If a recession is on the way I doubt home values will drop substantially I’ve actually went from 80000 to 120000 this year alone in my personal home but I definitely believe it will vary depending on what region you live in
San Fernando Valley Vs San Diego? I’m talking Canoga Park/Woodland Hills in the valley Vs San Diego which area has better quality of life ? Better future developments
I am real estate investment advisor in Dubai. Price is going down for the houses last year very fast even this year going on. Prices are going down more than 45%. But still have a hope to rise again.
So should I continue to get my licensed and I'm in new york at that and just become a salesperson or since a lot of people and legit people saying this business is going to slowly die out just to move on? because I wanted to go into this long term to accumulate money short and long term I'm taking classes for a license but becoming fearful and overthinking with questions and need help to make a decision
I agree with them to a certain extent... I think it all depends where you live though, example the Real Estate in Texas is booming, it is insane how many new homes are being build due to the shortages of homes they have had (it's a good thing). Texas economy growth has also been due to the many Corporation's re-locating to Texas and let’s not forget to mention the people that are following them. But yes the Real Estate Market in Texas is good and will continue to grow, so no need to panic... There are however some states that the Real Estate is doing poorly, example the West & East Coast real estate is not doing so good, people are/or attempting to move away due to the lack of jobs or high cost of living, they list their homes at a high price with the hopes that it will sell and they get a big payday, but instead the homes are sitting on the market for longer than they should... never selling, just depreciating every day that goes by. Again this is due to the big companies leaving their state(s) and taking the people with them, leaving them without the people that would actually want/ or can afford to buy those homes, those buyers are too busy chasing the money... wherever that takes them they will go, and right now that is Texas. The census reported that between April 2010 and July 2017 Texas added the most housing units in the nation 955,000 units.... that is a lot of Real Estate, and still there is a shortage of homes, as it stands Texas dominates the list of the fastest-growing cities. So to say that these men are lying or selling you BS is not really true, they are just not going into detail with where are the best states to do Real Estate in and what states have a booming/best economy... imagine if they did, that would be a lot of data to share, would be too overwhelming for some people. I advise that if you really are in the market or care about the economy or your investment do your homework, get you a good Real Estate agent that knows everything and everyone that matters in your state/community or where-ever you are looking to buy/sell or relocate to... preferably a seasoned Real Estate agent and not a rookie... nothing against the new agents they just that they lack the experience and knowledge, on the other hand the seasoned agents know the lingo, have better negotiating skills and have years of experience and knowledge. These guys here are making money not by selling you stories but by selling Real Estate, they are just not telling you where exactly, honestly I wouldn't either that is their bread and butter, if you are in this industry you know what I mean. Sometimes the best agents are the referred ones, the ones your friends & family have used and have been happy with, those types of agents will most likely give you the white glove treatment, especially if they were referred by another client. Anyhow good luck and don't cut your losses just yet, there is still a lot of money to be made, see this as another tactic to hold you back from making money so don't be fooled but definitely do your research I know I am. Good luck peeps!!
that is literally what happened to us! Bought whatever we wanted and had 4 homes before the crash! We do NOT take out money for stupid stuff anymore. Really trying to save, downsize and I've been flipping on a small scale for the past 7 years. Wh201ere are you seeing the hot markets that are more mid range prices...Like Nashville was in 2012 or prior?
Watch CRE cap rate spread over risk free rate (10 year treasury). During the last recession, the spread dropped dramatically below the normal 4.00-4.50% spread to under 2.00%. Cap rates and value are inverse. The lower the cap rate an investor is happy with, the more he/she will pay for the property. Since cap rates are based on net operating income, it is not necessarily the "value" of a property at point in time but the aggregate risk in sales (rents) changing and creating a valuation that literally changes monthly (although it may be immaterial). Personal real estate is only worth what it can produce in rents at a reasonable cap rate. The premium paid is for the granite counters and shiplap one can not live without.
I thought we were in trouble but I was wrong. This guy is totally right everything he says. Market did go down slightly but that was only for s short time. It's now fluctuating a little but they are now back on the up track again. If there's going to crash we should have atleast 2 years for that. The main thing us it fluctuates and continues to go up. A 300k house to day will cost 1,000,000 in 2030
It have been about 10 months since this video published and real estate market keep going down day after day. As I don't believe housing will go down 30-40% but there is a cool down in the market that will continue for the next year or so.
I'm a Real Estate broker and have looked to other investments to make money. Bitcoin/rental units etc. not owning my own house/Stock Market. So many other ways to earn money.
This is what all the real estate agents were saying in 2008 housing never going down. They never want real estate to go down it’s how they make money they will tell you real estate will go up for ever
Hi Tom, I'm a little surprised we don't hear more on your show about the New York market, which can be a predictor for the rest of the country. Our market here in New York City has been leveled off for a couple years at this point, and prices here are actually down 5-10 percent across the board. I would love 6% appreciation!! Can you speak to this? I'd also be interested to know Mr. Harney's thoughts on the subject!
I think the real estate cycle is similar to roller coasters,if you want to enjoy and health benefits of riding roller coaster is to not be afraid and enjoy the thrill of going ups and downs along the way till end of a roller coasters ride,because if you are afraid and jump out before the roller coasters reach the station you will hurt yourself and you wont enjoy the thrill of riding the roller coasters. the same is real estate cycle,if you want to benefit of real estate cycle be patient and enjoy the benefits of markets going ups and downs till you reach to the destination.because if you become afraid of ups and downs in real estate market and wants to jump out before one cycle you will hurt yourself. so to enjoy the thrill of roller coasters and real estate cycles be patient and enjoy the ups and downs along the way
Question - When you are referring to two survey's you referred to the Wall Street Journal that surveyed 35 economist, but then 6 weeks later somebody else did a survey but I couldn't quit understand who that was. Polsomics?
Like the Enron boys said back in the day with the rolling black outs: ‘burn, baby, burn.’ Let it crash, tank, plummet. I’ll buy when they’re begging for buyers.
I have several buyers who are telling me that they are seeing a lot of price reductions, and they are. So, of course, they infer that home prices must be dropping here in South OC. My response has been that price reductions do not equate to home price drops. The reason is, historical home prices are based on closed prices. The price drops we have seen are coming down off of mispriced listings, which may or may not close at the current market price. Am I explaining this correctly? Am I missing anything?
I'm going to keep renting. My rent is $2600 and if I were to purchase this home my mortgage would be $4000. Its going to take a long time of rent going up before a mortgage payment is less. I would rather take the difference and invest.
a lot of agents here in SWFL ( I founded and run the SWFL REIA www.swflreia.com so I am blessed to get to speak with a lot of people. ) are saying the market is crashing, the markets metrics are amazing, the issue is the number of real estate agents, real estate is fine, it is the brokerage industry that is having issues.
@@JeffTumbarello last market crash home prices drop %50 or more. a recession will hit real estate market hard specially florida. poeple lose jobs will translate into few buyers and market crash cause people to preserve capitol. economy is psychology first and then offer/demand. a declining stock market brings about negative psychology that causes fear and hesitation
Here's your bigger problem....majority of realtors will be out of a job in less than ten years thanks to AI. I know it hurts, but from a consumer standpoint, it will be a game changer. Instead of paying $60k to sell your million dollar home...you'll pay less than $2,500. It's a no brainer. It's already gobbled up numerous industries and it will this one as well. Anyways, have a great day! :)
The only problem we have is some (not all) agents who have been in the business too long or are here for greed alone, are listing properties way too high and they find other desperate agents with clients who trusted them to guide and protect don’t by allowing their clients to pay those prices, the appraiser who didn’t do their job and so forth. The market crashed because people making very little took way more then they could afford where lenders lent because there was no regulations and no securities. If you knew you made $30,000 a year but qualified for a $500,000 property note and paid that, shame on you! You’re plain stupid I can’t protect that. I’ve been doing this as a licensed Realtor for 10 years now, right after the crash I obtained my license. I was buying and selling before that, I’m not rich but I’m still here putting my head on my pillow with no worries, it’s common sense, be smart, observe obvious issues and sustainability of a current situation, don’t do this thinking it’s a way to get rich quick, get real! Everyone and their brother is an agent and I can’t believe how some made it either
You can tell Tom is a regional Cali guy. What percentage of his listeners is from California? Of those what percentage are Cali RE agents? What percentage are Cali RE investors? Of those how many invest only in Cali?
um yeah, a house is a great way to add to retirement savings... NOPE. Not when the value of your house has not improved... and there are foreclosures down the street and the only people interested in your property are real estate firms who would buy your house cheap and then rent it out...
40 percent tappable in current home prices actually translates to home being 40 percent over priced. This pro realtor is reading the real estatet market in old market ways. Who ever actually follows this guys suggestions deserves what they get.
If the stock market keeps crashing, expect money to flee to hard assets. Look at the debt levels in the country, that will tell the tale of the paint to bear in the next slow down.
How about Los Angeles??????????? Homeless is increasing. I predict some areas of Los Angeles, violence and crime will increase with the changes we are going thru. The people who are investing in the harsh areas of Los Angeles should've checked the area first. Yes economy is getting better for those who have money, but rent is increasing our expenses are increasing. Whatever analyst say...the people who are at the bottom (poor) will be more.
False. The truth lies in the local market. If there is growth, you will have sales. You can't have a one size fits all approach to every real estate market. That's just lazy. Look at Chicago vs. Seattle...
@@thomsieloff6637 exactly we have markets here in Nashville where we've had 20% increases for the last 2 years, and in the same time period 4-5% increases- less than 2 miles apart. We as realtors have to specialize in analyzing our market and telling the truth to our buyers and seller... regardless of what they WANT to hear,
Question: During the 2008 subprime crisis how does the lending bank force the payer to pay up more in monthly dues than the originally agreed amount - are they doing it illegally (that's how the house was lost - all three of them and is now living in an apartment)? Or what do you specifically watch out for during the contract signing (or something else)? P.S. He could not afford a lawyer.
It’s a big wheel! Money is always moving, now these “real estate financial advisors,” next the lawyers suing these RUclips financial/real estate advisors for giving illegal and false financial advise with out a disclaimer, that ,”they are not licensed as a financial advisor or that results may vary or this is for entertainment purposes only.” If people make financial decisions based off of information given and he gets compensation for it,well legally he can be on the hook! The core requirement under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 is that it’s “being in the business of giving investment advice for compensation” that triggers the need to register. While there are forms of financial advice that may not require registration, such as “financial coaching”, the reality is, almost anyone who’s holding themselves out as a financial advisor - particularly as a CFP certificant - is likely giving some form of investment advice, and consequently will need to register.
![Quando Rondo - Grow Up [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/8zFnCg3BO4Q/mqdefault.jpg)
3 issues with what Steve said:
1. The "historically low interest rates" argument doesn't take into consideration that the INFLATION was much higher then. It's the DIFFERENTIAL between the two that we should be comparing.
2. The idea that millennials are interested in "retirement, saving for a house, and then marriage" is all missing the underlying issue that most millennials are spending on STUDENT LOAN DEBT first and hence aren't able to QUALIFY for the home prices that they can get while renting. Moreover, we have to keep in mind that millennials have the highest credit scores overall.
3. When he comments that "affordability" is not a thing. We are now (and have already in some markets) at and above the numbers where it is cheaper to rent in a safer neighborhood than to buy in a not so safe neighborhood -- something that affects millennial women primarily (since they are the gender who seek homeownership more).
And finally, Steve's comments about clickbait are a bit hypocritical considering that both he and Tom have built businesses on optional services and are therefore incentivized to downplay any news about the market shifting since it would cost their businesses money.
Nonsense
You have good points about student debt being prioritized, however, humans are beings of behavior and habit. We’ve been taught, ultimately by our parents, that renting is “wasting” money (which it’s not) and that buying a home is the best option.
@Eric Forrest Eric Forrest 0% of her points are valid. Only around 30% of people who graduated high school this decade went to college. Before this decade it was in the 20%s and for all of the 1900's it was lower. Most people including millenials don't have college degrees and therefore don't have student debt. Plenty of people that never graduated college can afford a first home. Also older millenials are in there 30's and 10 years in plenty enough time to pay down debt while increasing income.
People were paying interest rates upwards of 15% on a mortgage in the early 1980's how could you argue that is comparable with 4.5% rates. You can't.
A lot of cities and states offer first time homebuyer loans and/or grants or loans that are forgivable provided the buyer is an occupier and they stay in the place for a minimum amount of time. The minimum down payment for most of these programs is as little as 3.5%
Many city, states, and qualified lenders also offer down payment assistance for borrowers that can afford a mortgage but don't have a down payment. Conditions apply but they are not hard to meet and often the most sustancial condition is that they must take mandatory real estate and finance related classes.
The comments made in the video about clickbait are not hypocritical if they are true.
I stated no opinion only facts. They are all verifiable and you can look them up. Please do your research.
@Eric Forrest Eric Forrest do you have a link that there are 90% default rates? People like you have cried that the sky is falling every year since 2009 and it never happened. You've scared a lot of people out of making sound financial decisions and they are going to feel stupid that they were duped by you when they are older. There is going to be another recession sometime in the future but that is the nature of the economic cycle and the economy will recover just like it always does.
Yes go on please explain what any of those countries circumstances which are very specific to them have to do with your fast impending doomsday scenario.
The Washington Post and the BBC are about as good as predicting the coming collapse as you. People like you say it's going to collapse every year for 10 years and when it finally does and you claim it as a victory because you told everyone and they didn't listen ignoring that you were wrong for many years before the recession happened. Then when we bounce back you start saying the next one's coming right around the corner and it doesn't. That's no way to live. If 90% of the 46 million people with student debt defaulted that would be bad. I don't think that will happen but I don't have a crystal ball any more than you do. Even so people can't live there lives expecting doom and gloom around the corner, it's not healthy and won't lead to success. It is a limiting belief that leads to a life of failure and heartache.
No one is saying don't be prudent. Make financial decisions that lead to growth and be aware of the downsides.
@Eric Forrest Eric Forrest you say you have not heard people cry wolf since 2009 yet you say you pay attention to financial markets, either you are being disingenuous or you have not been paying attention to financial markets very well. Anyone can turn on cnbc, Bloomberg or Fox bussines for a day and hear people talking about a crash. Anybody can read the wall st journal, new york times, or ft for a week and read negative news about how this thing, that, or the other may spell doom. Anyone reading your comments can Google "coming financial crash" or "new housing crash" and see that there are literally very very many articles a year since 2009 about the subject. Maybe you are the one out of touch.
It's also disengenous for you to bring up financial planning as if I hadn't said :
"No one is saying don't be prudent. Make financial decisions that lead to growth and be aware of the downsides"
Your response implies I was advocating for financial illiteracy and negligence which clearly this quote indicates I was not.
I do agree people should do there research which is why in my first response to you I said:
"I stated no opinion only facts. They are all verifiable and you can look them up. Please do your research"
You could have gone to every major city threw out the history of the US and found people who are struggling to make ends meet that does not mean that there were not people who could afford to buy homes. Likewise today you will find plenty of gen x'ers and millenials that can afford to buy a home and have made the correct prudent financial decisions in life and should not be talked out of property ownership or stocks or any sort of other proven long term asset building strategy.
*disclaimer: an owner occupied house might build wealth but is not an investment and I would never claim that is is unless the owner collects rent from at least a tenant.
This was outstanding
Two pillars of our industry
I’ve have had KCM for 6 years or so
I love it.
I totally respect Tom Ferry
So far... the Word I keep getting for 2019 is discipline.
Great perspective. I see many agents throwing up red flags telling people to hold off. The same thing happened 5 years ago and the people that bought them are selling now with massive amounts of equity moving into larger deals. Keep it rolling
Who do you expect to buy these homes if the prices are high and interest rates are high? I'm not buying what he's saying at all. Where I live on Long Island I see the prices falling like wildfire.
@NoDramaMama 123 A flipper did a flip on a house where I live and now he's in Pre- foreclosure himself because he's not getting the offers he want. It's crazy.
Chuckey 2015 prices are dropping bc interest rates are slightly higher, inventory has become stagnant or is stagnant and demand isn’t as high as say 6 months or a year ago. It has slow down significantly. This decreases bidding wars, and home owners want to sell while they can before they lose the value of their home.
every area is very granular... in Nashville the prices have softened... but no real price drops month over ont for similar property.
I live in LOng Island and I did notice that prices slightly went down, but I wouldn't say that they are falling like wild fire. Where are you looking to buy?
Real estate is local so of course, you need to do your own analysis of your local market. What is the month's of supply in your market?
Love changing the mindset on this BIG issue! Can't wait to see how the predictions end up in reality next December. Fingers crossed for more transactions in 2019 than 2017!
Do not get into a mortgage until the prices drop by 20-30% from the all time highs...because they will. And when it does, your mortgage will not drop if you are already locked into these inflated prices. You will be stuck in that house with a negative equity and be a mortgage prisoner. Stand on the sidelines and watch how it plays out... the prices cannot go further up for sure.
Ridiculous comment think about the amount of money you will be throwing away in rent waiting for the market to drop 20-30 percent. For example I live in California I bought a home recently for 349k my rent was 25k a year. In 2 years the market crashes 20-30 percent no problem for me
Mark Twain SFH or MFH or both?
Thank you Tom and Steve for this very important conversation! Although your conversation concerns the American real estate market, I, from Poland, can say that we have a very similar situation on the real estate market. Prices are rising, but we can not say that we have what in 2007. Growth is stable and not as drastic as 10 years ago.
Dominika - RE/MAX Real Estate Agent Krakow Poland
This is refreshing. Nice to hear facts, evidence, and logic instead of guessing doom and gloom.
2008-9 was the only housing bubble. Please don't confuse recession with housing bubble. Unless you 100 years old you did not live through 3 housing bubbles.
JJ Thanks for sharing you experience and wisdom of the market through the years. You may be right I could be wrong. Moving forward I am a very simple investor. I buy properties that appraised a little over what I pay, has opportunity for add value like renovation, convert garage to a unit that can provide additional rent in b & c neighborhoods, that cashflow higher than my debt service. My typical investment will be a 900-1000 PITI on 30 year fix after 20% down and additional 10% improvement cost. Rents for $1500 in todays market. Even if market crashes and rents falls by 50%, I will be fine. Also I am Just a blue collar truck driver in an industry that hires during a recession. Currently my company is struggling to find drivers that are willing to work for 75-85k a year with weekends off. Anyways I buy with plan to hold long term so that someday I can live off the rental income on my properties. I may not be as smart and savy as other investors out there but I always keep an open mind and only stick with what I know and like to hear positive podcasts. I am a simple minded person and can only do arithmetic level math. I don't understand complicated investments like stocks and crypto currency. I just know people will always need four walls and a roof over their heads and food on the table. Anyways All the Best to you.
Tom Ferry is a coach!!! The market is beginning to move toward normal.
Texas market is sitting. What I'm seeing is realtors over pricing their listings. Homes that are priced correctly move fast, ones that think it's still summer their homes are still sitting with no movement.
Clients are seeking out builders to build rather than buy existing homes when they can have a brand new custom home for 110 a sq ft rather than $200 a sq ft for a 20 year home with no updates. A correction to fair value needs to happen in our market.
Agents have become incredibly greedy.
It's not agents. Homeowners are unrealistic as well. Everyone thinks that they should always be able to make money on a home.
@@novarealestate2932 agree it is both, but it is also the JOB of an agent to be brutally honest with the home owner and tell them what their home is actually worth if they want to sell. If a home is sitting for 400 days then its obviously overpriced. Homes are coming back on the market in droves due to financing and appraisals not coming in where the home is listed at.
that price per squ ft comparison in similar areas doesn't hold up at all in Nashville. In similar area... new is much more expensive than older homes per sqy ft.
@@LivingInNashvilleTennessee1 agree We are also seeing 275 to 300 sq ft. Definitely cheaper to build your own in Tx until the market softens more
@@novarealestate2932 we have to really do a great job telling the news of the recent analytics to sellers... and having them be realistic--- or let another agent take the listing
The real estate market is going to have a real problem going forward. The Milenials you are counting on to save the real estate market have two major financial handicaps. First, they are encumbered with 10s of thousands (if not 100s of thousands) of dollars worth of student loan debt. Second, the back half of the baby boom generation is still sitting in the highest paying upper level management jobs in corporate America which means the Milenials are going to have to wait longer than previous generations to get access to those high paying jobs. Student loans and delayed access to high paying jobs will severely handicap their ability to be the saviors of the real estate market you hope them to be. A recession in 2020 will just double down on that scenario.
The Millennials are told they are smart with all this inapplicable crap they are teaching them in our universities. They have no skills to produce and provide with 100,000 loan over their head. We need to stop lending them money for liberal arts education, make sure they are getting applied science or accounting, something they can earn a living with.
@@joeblackwell2166 The government needs to stop guaranteeing student loans.
Joe Mama i agree that student debt is killing kids coming out of school and will take down the economy if not stopped.
Glad i didn’t put myself thousands in debt. Here i am studying for my license seeing this comment is so true. I hope i have an advantage with out the debt. Lets hope all my hard work and studying pays off aswell
Interesting when you say "save the RE Market". I am in CA, the charts now (27% AFFORDABILITY, 2 months inventory, no foreclosures) do not show the RE Market needs saving. There are very few purchases/sales, but values are stable. Will appreciation halt and may we see a 5-10% drop. Possibly. Does it need saving...No
When the market change you have to change. You have to Add Value to Yourself and the Marketplace that will significant Add Value to Others. Recession Proof REI Sales Niche...
Good Morning!!! Always an upside to any market #survivedthehousingcrash 💃
We just keep going on, am I right? #nevergiveup
Yup!!! Reinvention is key and pivoting 💃
Mark Jacob who said anything about a crash? But agents that pivoted had a lot of business via short sales and foreclosures. Not to wish that on any home owner. Also the bottom feeder agents leave the market. Becoming a listing agent was key for me ... upside 😎
Awesome info 🎯, thanks Tom for having Steve Harney 👍👍
And if anyone remembers....about 94% of Real Estate economist got the 2008 real estate market wrong. If you look outside California, and look at the general U.S. real estate market, housing has already peaked. Look at New York. They are already in a downward trend. 2008 prices were caused by a false market which gave everyone and anyone a loan. this caused bidding wars, (not that they could actually afford the loan) and this skyrocketed housing prices and values. ARM loans came due and the market crashed. After the crash, banks then hid houses in shadow inventory to drive up prices...and it worked. Why did they do this? So they wouldn't have to sell all the forclosures on their books at rock bottom prices. Now here we are again at 2008 prices...and an stock market that never truly corrected its self (Stock Buy Backs) ..including a proper housing correction. We went straight back up. Yes people are employed, but are they making the same amount of income as before 2008??? Not really. Yet housing prices have risen back to those levels. This is why rentals boomed. Most people cant afford the current market prices. And we will either go thru another crash, or continue to rise and mostly fall until it truly corrects its self.
The Ugly truth is most U.S. real estate is way overvalued and overpriced. for the average U.S. household. Everyone paid too much from about 2003-2008. And I mean everyone...Lawyers, judges, cops, nurses, teachers, gas station attendants....EVERYONE. And no one wants to hear that. "Just give me what I paid for it at least..". But guess what...Tickle Me Elmo was up to $500 at one point also....
Wow!! What a great morning training! Thank you!!
Great show Tom and Steve! Thank you for clarifying what is happening in the Real Estate Market and what to look forward too. I AM READY FOR 2019!
These guys want Realtors to use SOFT words, they don’t like the word “Recession”. They want Realtors to live in Fantasy Land. They are just trying to keep their realtor clients from going into panic mode so they don’t stop using their service, training and coaching. *** The next bubble Burst is going to be MUCH bigger than the one in 2008 💥
I disagree. Language means something and the last recession coincided with the housing bubble, which was based on fraudulent lending practices. Yes, we will soften and maybe even stay flat for several years... not a bad thing when you look at how fast we've been accelerating. We as realtors need to understand and analyze granular markets, teach the truth to our buyers and sellers , and not take obvious overpriced listings...
Indeed. I live in San Diego. The average house is 650k. The average family makes 75k/yr. I’d like to see some bozo list their house for 650k when interest rates hit 7 to 10%! The fed has to raise rates to avoid inflation. The math just doesn’t add up.
renting isn’t wrong. there are definitely pros that come with renting, and pros that we put a lot more emphasis on such as not having to worry about a lawn to mow, repairs, living within a community, having nice amenities, etc. In the end most people end up in the same place: broke and dead.
“Home ownership is important to every Family. Important to the Country!” ❤️
This is a big ad for KCM. No sharing of charts unless you sign up. Local Board & C21 gives same info.
RE agents are killing themselves......the only problem is too many RE agents in the market as a whole. Tighten licensing requirements, increase the price of licensing = fewer social media agents slingin houses on craigslist, and more quality RE agents with more transactions.
when the market softens we'll see agents leaving in droves... when better new ones will come back.It always works that way.
There are 8 billion people on the planet and all industries are shifting towards fewer jobs. This is not just a real estate problem. Every market with the exception of blue collar trade work is flooded. it shouldn't make a difference. The vast majority of RE agents are under performers. there is no coloration between quality of people and the expense of the barriers to entry. I came into RE as a career shift from a career that also had a saturated market full of hacks who were diluting the market. the barriers to entry in that industry were very high. I'm thankful I could start a career midlife in an industry without going into $80k of debt.
@@LivingInNashvilleTennessee1 real estate agents will be replaced by AI very soon.
@@talesinart I believe you are right in part... many will become hourly sales people for hourly services but those who really differentiate ourselves will always have a niche... at least in my lifetime!
Interesting discussion. I am not a realtor but I love real estate. I may invest in real estate again some day. I used to have 20 rentals but made a change out of that for the simple life but I still love keeping tabs on the market. Take care.
Great video, Tom!
Hovever, no mention of the Federal Reserve's policy of Quantitative Tightening at $50,000,000,000/month that started Oct 2018?
Forget rate hikes. Sucking $50BN/month out of the economy is primary to the Real Estate industry, and we are feeling it now.
Please address it.
Thanks!
Thanks for the ♥, Tom, but I would REALLY like someone experienced in Monetary Policy & the Real Estate industry to address the Fed's policy of QT at $50BN/month. I value analytical commentary that is combined with actionable items in order to prosper from the changing dynamics affecting R/E.
Thanks again!!!! :)
@@tonyricco777 Your question is a good one, Tony. In 2008, the Fed was able to pump tons of liquidity into the market to stabilize things. Not only are they now draining it back out, but in the event of another downturn, it doesn't look like they will be able to do again what they did back in 2008. If we are headed into a deflationary event, all commodities will take it on the chin and real estate will likely be the first to fall. If I was a real estate agent right now, I would be looking for a way to supplement my income to help weather what is coming.
If a recession is on the way I doubt home values will drop substantially I’ve actually went from 80000 to 120000 this year alone in my personal home but I definitely believe it will vary depending on what region you live in
Really powerful interview TF & SH, thank you!💪😎
Real estate is going down my friend.
Are you rooting for that? Do people think agents control the market or something?
San Fernando Valley Vs San Diego?
I’m talking Canoga Park/Woodland Hills in the valley Vs San Diego which area has better quality of life ? Better future developments
I want the prices to come down it's to freaking expensive right now 230000 for a shit house why it's wrong
Very informative. Thank you TF and SH.
I am real estate investment advisor in Dubai. Price is going down for the houses last year very fast even this year going on. Prices are going down more than 45%. But still have a hope to rise again.
So should I continue to get my licensed and I'm in new york at that and just become a salesperson or since a lot of people and legit people saying this business is going to slowly die out just to move on? because I wanted to go into this long term to accumulate money short and long term I'm taking classes for a license but becoming fearful and overthinking with questions and need help to make a decision
Which website is best to look at the Home Price Expectation?
I agree with them to a certain extent... I think it all depends where you live though, example the Real Estate in Texas is booming, it is insane how many new homes are being build due to the shortages of homes they have had (it's a good thing). Texas economy growth has also been due to the many Corporation's re-locating to Texas and let’s not forget to mention the people that are following them. But yes the Real Estate Market in Texas is good and will continue to grow, so no need to panic... There are however some states that the Real Estate is doing poorly, example the West & East Coast real estate is not doing so good, people are/or attempting to move away due to the lack of jobs or high cost of living, they list their homes at a high price with the hopes that it will sell and they get a big payday, but instead the homes are sitting on the market for longer than they should... never selling, just depreciating every day that goes by. Again this is due to the big companies leaving their state(s) and taking the people with them, leaving them without the people that would actually want/ or can afford to buy those homes, those buyers are too busy chasing the money... wherever that takes them they will go, and right now that is Texas. The census reported that between April 2010 and July 2017 Texas added the most housing units in the nation 955,000 units.... that is a lot of Real Estate, and still there is a shortage of homes, as it stands Texas dominates the list of the fastest-growing cities. So to say that these men are lying or selling you BS is not really true, they are just not going into detail with where are the best states to do Real Estate in and what states have a booming/best economy... imagine if they did, that would be a lot of data to share, would be too overwhelming for some people. I advise that if you really are in the market or care about the economy or your investment do your homework, get you a good Real Estate agent that knows everything and everyone that matters in your state/community or where-ever you are looking to buy/sell or relocate to... preferably a seasoned Real Estate agent and not a rookie... nothing against the new agents they just that they lack the experience and knowledge, on the other hand the seasoned agents know the lingo, have better negotiating skills and have years of experience and knowledge. These guys here are making money not by selling you stories but by selling Real Estate, they are just not telling you where exactly, honestly I wouldn't either that is their bread and butter, if you are in this industry you know what I mean. Sometimes the best agents are the referred ones, the ones your friends & family have used and have been happy with, those types of agents will most likely give you the white glove treatment, especially if they were referred by another client. Anyhow good luck and don't cut your losses just yet, there is still a lot of money to be made, see this as another tactic to hold you back from making money so don't be fooled but definitely do your research I know I am. Good luck peeps!!
that is literally what happened to us! Bought whatever we wanted and had 4 homes before the crash! We do NOT take out money for stupid stuff anymore. Really trying to save, downsize and I've been flipping on a small scale for the past 7 years. Wh201ere are you seeing the hot markets that are more mid range prices...Like Nashville was in 2012 or prior?
Watch CRE cap rate spread over risk free rate (10 year treasury). During the last recession, the spread dropped dramatically below the normal 4.00-4.50% spread to under 2.00%. Cap rates and value are inverse. The lower the cap rate an investor is happy with, the more he/she will pay for the property. Since cap rates are based on net operating income, it is not necessarily the "value" of a property at point in time but the aggregate risk in sales (rents) changing and creating a valuation that literally changes monthly (although it may be immaterial). Personal real estate is only worth what it can produce in rents at a reasonable cap rate. The premium paid is for the granite counters and shiplap one can not live without.
What an amazing interview! Thank you both :-) Where do I get my mind and hands on the statistics mentioned around 28:28?
I hope this helps....www.keepingcurrentmatters.com. That is his website
Jeff Hashbarger come
I thought we were in trouble but I was wrong. This guy is totally right everything he says. Market did go down slightly but that was only for s short time. It's now fluctuating a little but they are now back on the up track again. If there's going to crash we should have atleast 2 years for that. The main thing us it fluctuates and continues to go up. A 300k house to day will cost 1,000,000 in 2030
Edit a I think it was a 200k house will cost 1 M in 2030
Great information, can we please get the sources for Steve's numbers and his claims to help give us more credibility when sharing. Thank you.
It have been about 10 months since this video published and real estate market keep going down day after day. As I don't believe housing will go down 30-40% but there is a cool down in the market that will continue for the next year or so.
Dynamic Duo! Thanks for this Tom!
Our Market in South Africa has shifted to a Buyer's Market!! We have to price councel our Seller's here!
410 expireds in my area today. Happy New Year Tom. When our coaches will have a polished expireds script? :-) Thank you.
Ilite Realty all available in the HUB on tomferry.com - for help them!
I'm a Real Estate broker and have looked to other investments to make money. Bitcoin/rental units etc. not owning my own house/Stock Market. So many other ways to earn money.
As a new agent. And economy nerd. I appreciate the video. Thankyou
Steve is the first person I think of when I need insight on the market. Legend!
Tom Ferry International thankyou. I will be subscribing to him.
This is what all the real estate agents were saying in 2008 housing never going down. They never want real estate to go down it’s how they make money they will tell you real estate will go up for ever
I love this! thank you. Would like to see more. Just calmed my nerves ...lol
Hi Tom, I'm a little surprised we don't hear more on your show about the New York market, which can be a predictor for the rest of the country. Our market here in New York City has been leveled off for a couple years at this point, and prices here are actually down 5-10 percent across the board. I would love 6% appreciation!! Can you speak to this? I'd also be interested to know Mr. Harney's thoughts on the subject!
Michael Engstrom hey Michael, I did a show with Steve on NYC and a few other higher end markets in Sept. we’ll do it again.
Chinese money came out of market. Doesn't effect every state like it does California and new york
OUTSTANDING!
I think the real estate cycle is similar to roller coasters,if you want to enjoy and health benefits of riding roller coaster is to not be afraid and enjoy the thrill of going ups and downs along the way till end of a roller coasters ride,because if you are afraid and jump out before the roller coasters reach the station you will hurt yourself and you wont enjoy the thrill of riding the roller coasters.
the same is real estate cycle,if you want to benefit of real estate cycle be patient and enjoy the benefits of markets going ups and downs till you reach to the destination.because if you become afraid of ups and downs in real estate market and wants to jump out before one cycle you will hurt yourself.
so to enjoy the thrill of roller coasters and real estate cycles be patient and enjoy the ups and downs along the way
Perfectly perfect information at the best time ever. Thank-you and thank-you again. LJLK Boston, MA
In Sydney Australia, property prices have already fallen by around 12%
Excellent. Thanks for posting.
So happy I subscribed to your channel
Duuuuuuude, "SUPER DUPER RAY GUNS" yessssssss. I like this guy
Thanks for the great interview, Tom!
Great interview! Awesome post. I hope none of my competitors watch this.... Let them panic while I list
Think again. I sold my house in 2018. Two offers came-in over what I've asked, both putting less than 3% down.... Yeap, it's 2006 again.
@Will Buy It East coast, Boston area.
Tom, love your glasses! Great interview. thanks for sharing
I’m currently in real estate class... this video was awesome! A lot of great information. Thanks #TomFerry
#KCM
very good and informative
I want Steve to be my coach. Steve I am talking to you... I'm a Long Island gal living in California. Lets do this!
Did anyone else feel that FORCED sale right when Steve Harney joined the discussion? Yea....So did I.
Who else thought it was a prediction from Steve HARVEY?.....
And you wondered what the hell he has to say about the real estate market...
that;s funny I had to look it up as well!
Yup, same here!
Awesome interview as always!!!
Great input, nice to hear from someone that has good news for the future. Great job
I'm a firm believer that the future is dependent on the actions that we do RIGHT NOW! Let's get to it!
We are not alone 👽
WOOOOW Great info N Video
Great job!!!
Question - When you are referring to two survey's you referred to the Wall Street Journal that surveyed 35 economist, but then 6 weeks later somebody else did a survey but I couldn't quit understand who that was. Polsomics?
Like the Enron boys said back in the day with the rolling black outs: ‘burn, baby, burn.’ Let it crash, tank, plummet. I’ll buy when they’re begging for buyers.
Yes after prices have doubled and you buy on the 10 or 20% dip.
How are these historically lowest rates? Interest rates in Florida are 5%. Lowest 4.1% that’s just too much for me. Last year it was 3.5% in October
Thank you Tom!
I have several buyers who are telling me that they are seeing a lot of price reductions, and they are. So, of course, they infer that home prices must be dropping here in South OC. My response has been that price reductions do not equate to home price drops. The reason is, historical home prices are based on closed prices. The price drops we have seen are coming down off of mispriced listings, which may or may not close at the current market price. Am I explaining this correctly? Am I missing anything?
Thank you for the great video!
Great info! Thank you.
My home going up daily on Zillow in southern CALIFORNIA
I'm going to keep renting. My rent is $2600 and if I were to purchase this home my mortgage would be $4000. Its going to take a long time of rent going up before a mortgage payment is less. I would rather take the difference and invest.
My friend, without home ownership you have no control of your own destiny.
Stay within your means then. There’s no excuse. Fear with make others rich. $2k a month? I would love you as a tenant!
that is interesting... renting in Nashville is far more expenscive than ownership -- no matter the area you are trying to rent in.
DaBotGizmo continue to invest the rest remember the cash flow quadrant why are you receiving advice from?
DaBotGizmo live within your means and buy a smaller home, what city?
a lot of agents here in SWFL ( I founded and run the SWFL REIA www.swflreia.com so I am blessed to get to speak with a lot of people. ) are saying the market is crashing, the markets metrics are amazing, the issue is the number of real estate agents, real estate is fine, it is the brokerage industry that is having issues.
im in naples. homes are selling but with discounts. further crash in stock market will cause hesitation to buy real estate. domino effect
@@jibberjabber-fm6pb last time the market crashed, real estate was the safe haven. The prices are a lot higher since then.
@@JeffTumbarello last market crash home prices drop %50 or more. a recession will hit real estate market hard specially florida. poeple lose jobs will translate into few buyers and market crash cause people to preserve capitol. economy is psychology first and then offer/demand. a declining stock market brings about negative psychology that causes fear and hesitation
Once the fed raises interest rates housing prices have to drop. And it looks like they will do just that.
Still standing by that rate drop?
Here's your bigger problem....majority of realtors will be out of a job in less than ten years thanks to AI. I know it hurts, but from a consumer standpoint, it will be a game changer. Instead of paying $60k to sell your million dollar home...you'll pay less than $2,500. It's a no brainer. It's already gobbled up numerous industries and it will this one as well. Anyways, have a great day! :)
The only problem we have is some (not all) agents who have been in the business too long or are here for greed alone, are listing properties way too high and they find other desperate agents with clients who trusted them to guide and protect don’t by allowing their clients to pay those prices, the appraiser who didn’t do their job and so forth. The market crashed because people making very little took way more then they could afford where lenders lent because there was no regulations and no securities. If you knew you made $30,000 a year but qualified for a $500,000 property note and paid that, shame on you! You’re plain stupid I can’t protect that. I’ve been doing this as a licensed Realtor for 10 years now, right after the crash I obtained my license. I was buying and selling before that, I’m not rich but I’m still here putting my head on my pillow with no worries, it’s common sense, be smart, observe obvious issues and sustainability of a current situation, don’t do this thinking it’s a way to get rich quick, get real! Everyone and their brother is an agent and I can’t believe how some made it either
high and interest rates are high and apartment raise to high.
You can tell Tom is a regional Cali guy. What percentage of his listeners is from California? Of those what percentage are Cali RE agents? What percentage are Cali RE investors? Of those how many invest only in Cali?
Would you ask a car salesman if you should by a car that you can’t effort? You think he cares what happens after you close the deal ? 🤦🏻♂️
I always trust old people, they are very wise
What’s Toms background? How many units does he own? Is he a syndication guy?
um yeah, a house is a great way to add to retirement savings... NOPE. Not when the value of your house has not improved... and there are foreclosures down the street and the only people interested in your property are real estate firms who would buy your house cheap and then rent it out...
40 percent tappable in current home prices actually translates to home being 40 percent over priced. This pro realtor is reading the real estatet market in old market ways. Who ever actually follows this guys suggestions deserves what they get.
If the stock market keeps crashing, expect money to flee to hard assets. Look at the debt levels in the country, that will tell the tale of the paint to bear in the next slow down.
Where is the graph with the interest rates??
@Kc Moua you are helpful thank you
How about Los Angeles??????????? Homeless is increasing. I predict some areas of Los Angeles, violence and crime will increase with the changes we are going thru. The people who are investing in the harsh areas of Los Angeles should've checked the area first. Yes economy is getting better for those who have money, but rent is increasing our expenses are increasing. Whatever analyst say...the people who are at the bottom (poor) will be more.
Lies all lies. You guys just want to keep your checks coming in. The market is going down hill.
False. The truth lies in the local market. If there is growth, you will have sales. You can't have a one size fits all approach to every real estate market. That's just lazy. Look at Chicago vs. Seattle...
@@thomsieloff6637 exactly we have markets here in Nashville where we've had 20% increases for the last 2 years, and in the same time period 4-5% increases- less than 2 miles apart. We as realtors have to specialize in analyzing our market and telling the truth to our buyers and seller... regardless of what they WANT to hear,
Great content. Thanks coach Tom!
According to steve harney..prices of real estate will forever go up. Yes everything will rise.
Question: During the 2008 subprime crisis how does the lending bank force the payer to pay up more in monthly dues than the originally agreed amount - are they doing it illegally (that's how the house was lost - all three of them and is now living in an apartment)? Or what do you specifically watch out for during the contract signing (or something else)? P.S. He could not afford a lawyer.
It’s a big wheel!
Money is always moving, now these “real estate financial advisors,” next the lawyers suing these RUclips financial/real estate advisors for giving illegal and false financial advise with out a disclaimer, that ,”they are not licensed as a financial advisor or that results may vary or this is for entertainment purposes only.”
If people make financial decisions based off of information given and he gets compensation for it,well legally he can be on the hook!
The core requirement under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 is that it’s “being in the business of giving investment advice for compensation” that triggers the need to register. While there are forms of financial advice that may not require registration, such as “financial coaching”, the reality is, almost anyone who’s holding themselves out as a financial advisor - particularly as a CFP certificant - is likely giving some form of investment advice, and consequently will need to register.
RE going up here in southern CA
Love this guy!!!
Can we link the graph or charts to this please?
Just subbed, great content!