Retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs. Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My Husband and I both spent same number of years in the civil service, she invested through a wealth manager and myself through the 401k. We both still earning after our retirement.
This is true. I'm in my mid 50's now. My wife and I were following this same trajectory. Last two years, I pulled out my money and invested with her wealth manager. Not catching up with her profits over the years, but at least I earn more. I'm making money even before retiring, and my retirement fund has grown way more than it would have with just the 401(k). Haha...
Interesting . I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation..
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. When I was starting out, I checked out a couple of freelance investors online, so you could do the same. I personally work with Catherine Morrison Evans, and she's is widely recognized for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market. With a comprehensive knowledge of portfolio diversification, she is acknowledged as an authority in this field...
Thanks for the mention and your kind words, Rob. I must have been offline during my summer travel schedule and only found this today. Sorry for the delayed response: 1: You make a great point that this new flexible rule doesn't really allow you to retire earlier than under the 4% Rule. For example, folks with $40k who would have targeted a $1m portfolio before should probably not lower the portfolio target to $40k/0.055=$727k unless they have the flexibility to spend only $20k for extended periods. I added a note in my Conclusions section and credited you with that 100% valid insight. 2: You're correct, I should rephrase the sentence at the beginning: "Thus, you will still fail *in some of the worst-case scenarios.* It's a mathematical certainty - no simulations necessary." By adding the qualifier ("in some of the worst-case scenarios"), we want to convey that the failure refers to the worst-case cohorts only, not *all* cohorts. 3: About the CAPE: most folks in the FIRE community have some combination of SP500 or a US Total Market index fund (ITOT, VTI, etc.), so for them, it is indeed relevant. I also often hear from folks who aggressively invest in non-US stocks, often EM, who claim they don’t have to worry about Sequence Risk because their CAPE is so low. I beg to differ. If we repeat the GFC or Great Depression or the 1970s, all correlations will go to 1.0 again, and all markets will fall. We shouldn’t compare an EM index fund with a CAPE=15 today with the S&P 500 at 15 when trying to gauge the Sequence Risk susceptibility. 4: I never ascertained whether the other authors used small-cap value in their simulations. I doubt it because the 1929 and 1960s cohorts would have looked much better. That said, I suspect that SCV will not continue to fetch a reliable ~1.8% extra return in the future. That historical “alpha” has been arbitraged away now. If anything, SCV underperformed recently.
No one has a crystal ball. Most retirees have an income and expenses just like when you were working. If you want to spend more than your income you have to dip into savings just like when you were working. Unless you are trying to work down to zero, your discretionary spending should still be looked at as when you were working. Just because you are retired does not mean you don't keep a comfortable cushion. Only certainty is prices will always go up regardless of who's in the White House.
High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I'm concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won't have enough savings for retirement since I can't contribute as much as before.
It's recommended to save at least 20% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 20% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of investing in the stock market and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.
Considering the increased complexity since the 2008 crash and COVID, I suggest diversifying your financial portfolio. I hired an advisor and successfully grew my portfolio by over $150K during this turbulent market using defensive strategies that protect and profit from market fluctuations.
‘’Natalie Lynn Fisk’’ is my adviser and she is highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for sharing this. I did my own little research, and your advisor looks advanced and experienced. I wrote her and dialed her twice but she didn't pick up so I scheduled a phone call.
Great video... I actually like the Guyton -- Klinger guardrails, only withdraw 4% when we are in a bear market, and in good times, you can withdraw 6 %... When Social Security kicks in at 65, you can supplement your income and cut your withdraw percent down to 2%... You don't have to make your income last for 30 years, social security provides a nice margin, especially if you retire overseas in the Philippines, or Vietnam, where the cost of living is 50% of that in the United States
Incisive, clear, thoughtful, I love your analysis week after week. You bring a great deal to the table. Context, alternative ways of looking at papers, tools to use, just fantastic work!! BRAVO BRAVO!!!
Rob, after watching many of your vids, I enjoy how you can dig deep into minutae and small details, while also being able to see the big picture, and the forest through the trees. I don't always agree with you (though I usually do), but I've learned much from you, and I greatly respect your approach. Kudos & thanks.
Hard rules break down in reality….. example: what if your portfolio was up 50% last year and down 20% this year. Portfolio still up. So decrease spending in your young and able. Mistake. Great content Rob.
Another excellent analysis and comparison of current thinking, with clearly labelled opinions and extensive context clarity. Well done, Mr. Berger, well done. This kind of content is why I subscribe to your newsletter and your RUclips channel. Thanks.
The falling bridge in that photo is actually a classic. It's referred to as Galloping Gertie. I remember it from my engineering intro class in college. I'm not a civil or mechanical engineer, but I did joke with one about it years later, and he said "yeah" that's a classic example that all construction-oriented engineers have all heard about (and he knew much more of the history behind it than I did).
I retired early and plan to withdraw over 10% annually until the mortgage is paid off and SS kicks in. By embracing flexibility and dynamically adjusting withdrawals when necessary I've also made the plan fail proof (0% failure rate). My portfolio will last no matter how long I live (I'm not a fan of scheduling my own demise). I won't be leaving a ton of money to anyone else--my wife and I will be spending most of it and enjoying retirement to its fullest while we are able. Like Rob said, flexibility makes a huge difference.
I agree with Rob's point of view, I saw the reference to these articles on his newsletter, read them, and also thought both articles had some aspects to consider, but not blindly, some personal analysis is always a good/necessary thing. Rob, Thanks for sharing! PS: About the “absolutes”, using a Star Wars reference "Only a Sith deals in absolutes" 🤓🤣
Great analysis Rob--you're my favorite speaker on retirement issues as you get to the point, provide factual data and analysis, have nothing to sell, and offer thought-provoking insights. Based on your reading--I'm curious about your thoughts on asset allocation. Based on your own investments and the 3-fund portfolio, it doesn't seem like you think it needs to be very much. Your own stock investments seem to be just in a handful of stocks you are interested in, an all stock index fund, small cap index fund, and international index fund. No REITS or commodities and very small exposure to a dividend focused index fund.
I would love for you to make a video on big ERN’s spreadsheet to review any potential flaws in using it as well as explaining some of the more detailed parts of the spreadsheet!
I would have liked this compared to the Wellington fund. That goes back to 1929. I would also like to see Wellesley used in this. Wellesley started in 1970.
Rob, really enjoy your videos, I've watched them all. Could you do a video or two about protecting assets as we age. I'm not quite 40 yet, and a new father so it has be thinking about transfer of assets in the future. I've known a couple people that had pretty sizeable nest eggs in the later years, only to become ill, enter a home and have them drain the assets (home, accounts) to the tune of $10-15k+/mo....even with millions, an extended stay, dementia etc..where you could need care for 3-5 years...or more...will drain an inheritance pretty quick. Obviously there is long term care insurance, gifting before you get to the later years at the max/yr allowable tax free...and trusts...what do you recommend or what is your take on it? I grew up well below the poverty line and would hate to spend a lifetime building wealth only to have it consumed by a mediocre care facility where Im drooling on myself being fed applesauce by a CNA getting $9/hr while they charge me $15k/mo. Irrevocable trust? I dont care if Im in control of the funds when Im 80+ yrs old...if something terrible happens younger, hopefully its quick and I dont rack up a mountain of medical bills. Just dont want to be a burden on loved ones and would like to leave them as much as possible.
Average Retiree Investor that had 80 percent stocks would panic and sell out (at the wrong time of course) after a historic bad year.. Not sure how many advisors would put their retiree clients in a 80/20 set up. When bonds and guaranteed money is paying more than historic inflation, wouldn't it be prudent to load up on them? 6.25% on a 7 yr cd from insurance company with your state's insurance comm providing a backstop.. (myga).. is very compelling. Waiting until 70 with Social Security allows you to have some inflation protection and lower your risk ratio too. Planning to have your house and cars paid off at retirement means inflation won't affect you as much also. The S&P 500 is not what it used to be.. top 15 companies control the returns, making it more volatile.
Question: would anyone in the world actually follow those burdensome, detailed, granular dynamic spending guidelines as they related to bear markets, etc? The plan seems so unwieldy as to be useless, IMO. Just have a budget, withdraw what you need, and tighten your belts in tough market years. Use good old fashion division to see how many years of expenses you have and when you need to tighten.😊
The one thing this whole discussion is lacking esp if you are evaluating retiring early is how much (%) of your essential expenses will be covered by SS, pension, annuities, etc. in x number of years vs your portfolio. If say 80% of your “essential” spending is covered by these guaranteed sources you may only need some higher % of withdrawals over 4% your first 5 or 10 years of retirement to meet discretionary goals that will be sharply reduced once you collect SS or pensions, annuities start etc. In this sense this type of flexible approach on some discretionary items could indeed help you retire earlier than a simple calculation of 4% rule on investments would reveal. For some who retire in their 50s or early 60s and delay SS it’s possible RMDs starting at 75 are actually not even needed to meet annual spending due to SA, pensions, annuities, reverse mortgages, etc. Would be nice to realize that and plan before you slave away another year or 10 that you could have spent on family, hobbies, etc.
Big ERN covers this well in his own work and the SWR Toolbox Rob showed here has functionality that lets you model those kinds of additional inflows which you mention. That makes it easy to determine your SWR net of these factors.
Honestly at the margins this is all mental mast……. The fact is that the majority of people will not want to draw a steady percent every year. Income needs are dynamic for most and vary with other income streams. Our needs vary from 6% to 2%. And ALL necessary costs are covered by SS at age 70.
I recall a few Mondays ago you stated that the SEC yield on a bond fund will hold ( more or less) for the period of time calculated by the effective duration, multiplied by 2 and subtracting 1. Not sure if I got that correct but using VCLT as an example with an "effective duration of 13.32 x 2 + 26.64 - 1 =25.6 years at the yield of 5.46%. Did I get that right and why/how is the 2 multiplier arrived at, seems like a high rate for a long long time.
Do I include taxes I need to pay in the total withdraw. In other words, does the 4, 5 or 6 percent include the taxes I will need to pay. A larger withdraw may kiick me into a higher tax rate...
your total withdrawal rate covers all your expenses, which includes taxes. A larger withdraw wouldn't necessarily push you into a higher tax bracket, because it would dependon which assets you are withdrawing (e.g. tax deferred, tax exempt, cap gains).
That is a what if, but in reality, it does not affect most people, probably less than 15% of the population. That being said it did occur with my mom, she had it for the last 4 years of her life, costs averaged about 60k per year in the US in memory care facility. So not cheap, but if someone owns their home the equity will often cover their long term care costs.
Ah, nothing like paralysis by analysis. I find Big Ern and all the other vloggers with their 238 part series on financial minutia hard eye-roll-back-in-my-head nonsense. These so-called FIRE bloggers never seem to actually to be retired, never seem to follow their own advice, and always seem to be 1%ers who could go back to work if stuff hit the fan. Of course, they bloviated ad nauseum about the necessity of owning bonds. Yet when the first correction hits, their advice was worse than terrible (they oh-so-confidently used historical data to 'prove' bonds were necessary to smooth volatility). They blindly ignored the 600 lb gorilla - that 40 years of falling rates wasn't a realistic data set. The only rational conclusion was bonds were going to implode as soon as rates - inevitably - rose, and to avoid them like the plague (stay in cash). And thus the first test of these oh-so-confident portfolio recommendations (20-30-40% bonds) was a disaster - 2022 suffered worst bond performance in history. They all shrugged and said 'who could have guessed'? Ironically, now is a decent time to get into bonds - after they've blown up.
Retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs. Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My Husband and I both spent same number of years in the civil service, she invested through a wealth manager and myself through the 401k. We both still earning after our retirement.
This is true. I'm in my mid 50's now. My wife and I were following this same trajectory. Last two years, I pulled out my money and invested with her wealth manager. Not catching up with her profits over the years, but at least I earn more. I'm making money even before retiring, and my retirement fund has grown way more than it would have with just the 401(k). Haha...
Interesting . I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation..
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. When I was starting out, I checked out a couple of freelance investors online, so you could do the same. I personally work with Catherine Morrison Evans, and she's is widely recognized for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market. With a comprehensive knowledge of portfolio diversification, she is acknowledged as an authority in this field...
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
These are all bots. IGNORE SCAM
Thanks for the mention and your kind words, Rob. I must have been offline during my summer travel schedule and only found this today. Sorry for the delayed response:
1: You make a great point that this new flexible rule doesn't really allow you to retire earlier than under the 4% Rule. For example, folks with $40k who would have targeted a $1m portfolio before should probably not lower the portfolio target to $40k/0.055=$727k unless they have the flexibility to spend only $20k for extended periods. I added a note in my Conclusions section and credited you with that 100% valid insight.
2: You're correct, I should rephrase the sentence at the beginning: "Thus, you will still fail *in some of the worst-case scenarios.* It's a mathematical certainty - no simulations necessary." By adding the qualifier ("in some of the worst-case scenarios"), we want to convey that the failure refers to the worst-case cohorts only, not *all* cohorts.
3: About the CAPE: most folks in the FIRE community have some combination of SP500 or a US Total Market index fund (ITOT, VTI, etc.), so for them, it is indeed relevant. I also often hear from folks who aggressively invest in non-US stocks, often EM, who claim they don’t have to worry about Sequence Risk because their CAPE is so low. I beg to differ. If we repeat the GFC or Great Depression or the 1970s, all correlations will go to 1.0 again, and all markets will fall. We shouldn’t compare an EM index fund with a CAPE=15 today with the S&P 500 at 15 when trying to gauge the Sequence Risk susceptibility.
4: I never ascertained whether the other authors used small-cap value in their simulations. I doubt it because the 1929 and 1960s cohorts would have looked much better. That said, I suspect that SCV will not continue to fetch a reliable ~1.8% extra return in the future. That historical “alpha” has been arbitraged away now. If anything, SCV underperformed recently.
No one has a crystal ball. Most retirees have an income and expenses just like when you were working. If you want to spend more than your income you have to dip into savings just like when you were working. Unless you are trying to work down to zero, your discretionary spending should still be looked at as when you were working. Just because you are retired does not mean you don't keep a comfortable cushion. Only certainty is prices will always go up regardless of who's in the White House.
If you don't have any flexibility in spending, you aren't ready to retire early.
High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I'm concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won't have enough savings for retirement since I can't contribute as much as before.
It's recommended to save at least 20% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 20% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of investing in the stock market and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.
Considering the increased complexity since the 2008 crash and COVID, I suggest diversifying your financial portfolio. I hired an advisor and successfully grew my portfolio by over $150K during this turbulent market using defensive strategies that protect and profit from market fluctuations.
Could you kindly share the contact details of your investment advisor? I really need one urgently.
‘’Natalie Lynn Fisk’’ is my adviser and she is highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for sharing this. I did my own little research, and your advisor looks advanced and experienced. I wrote her and dialed her twice but she didn't pick up so I scheduled a phone call.
Great video... I actually like the Guyton -- Klinger guardrails, only withdraw 4% when we are in a bear market, and in good times, you can withdraw 6 %... When Social Security kicks in at 65, you can supplement your income and cut your withdraw percent down to 2%... You don't have to make your income last for 30 years, social security provides a nice margin, especially if you retire overseas in the Philippines, or Vietnam, where the cost of living is 50% of that in the United States
Incisive, clear, thoughtful, I love your analysis week after week. You bring a great deal to the table. Context, alternative ways of looking at papers, tools to use, just fantastic work!! BRAVO BRAVO!!!
Rob, after watching many of your vids, I enjoy how you can dig deep into minutae and small details, while also being able to see the big picture, and the forest through the trees.
I don't always agree with you (though I usually do), but I've learned much from you, and I greatly respect your approach.
Kudos & thanks.
Hard rules break down in reality….. example: what if your portfolio was up 50% last year and down 20% this year. Portfolio still up. So decrease spending in your young and able. Mistake.
Great content Rob.
Great analysis as always, Rob. Thanks for the shout out!
Another excellent analysis and comparison of current thinking, with clearly labelled opinions and extensive context clarity. Well done, Mr. Berger, well done. This kind of content is why I subscribe to your newsletter and your RUclips channel. Thanks.
Great video. As someone who follows both ERN and Mad FI this is some of your best work.
The falling bridge in that photo is actually a classic. It's referred to as Galloping Gertie. I remember it from my engineering intro class in college. I'm not a civil or mechanical engineer, but I did joke with one about it years later, and he said "yeah" that's a classic example that all construction-oriented engineers have all heard about (and he knew much more of the history behind it than I did).
Big Ern's use of CAPE adjusted withdrawal rates has a certain mathematical elegance.
I retired early and plan to withdraw over 10% annually until the mortgage is paid off and SS kicks in. By embracing flexibility and dynamically adjusting withdrawals when necessary I've also made the plan fail proof (0% failure rate). My portfolio will last no matter how long I live (I'm not a fan of scheduling my own demise). I won't be leaving a ton of money to anyone else--my wife and I will be spending most of it and enjoying retirement to its fullest while we are able. Like Rob said, flexibility makes a huge difference.
I agree with Rob's point of view, I saw the reference to these articles on his newsletter, read them, and also thought both articles had some aspects to consider, but not blindly, some personal analysis is always a good/necessary thing.
Rob, Thanks for sharing!
PS: About the “absolutes”, using a Star Wars reference "Only a Sith deals in absolutes" 🤓🤣
This is why I bought a QLAC that kicks in at 80 with a small portion of my retirement money. I want a zero percent fail rate
Great analysis Rob--you're my favorite speaker on retirement issues as you get to the point, provide factual data and analysis, have nothing to sell, and offer thought-provoking insights. Based on your reading--I'm curious about your thoughts on asset allocation. Based on your own investments and the 3-fund portfolio, it doesn't seem like you think it needs to be very much. Your own stock investments seem to be just in a handful of stocks you are interested in, an all stock index fund, small cap index fund, and international index fund. No REITS or commodities and very small exposure to a dividend focused index fund.
Man, Rob is good
I would love for you to make a video on big ERN’s spreadsheet to review any potential flaws in using it as well as explaining some of the more detailed parts of the spreadsheet!
I would have liked this compared to the Wellington fund. That goes back to 1929. I would also like to see Wellesley used in this. Wellesley started in 1970.
Rob, really enjoy your videos, I've watched them all. Could you do a video or two about protecting assets as we age. I'm not quite 40 yet, and a new father so it has be thinking about transfer of assets in the future. I've known a couple people that had pretty sizeable nest eggs in the later years, only to become ill, enter a home and have them drain the assets (home, accounts) to the tune of $10-15k+/mo....even with millions, an extended stay, dementia etc..where you could need care for 3-5 years...or more...will drain an inheritance pretty quick. Obviously there is long term care insurance, gifting before you get to the later years at the max/yr allowable tax free...and trusts...what do you recommend or what is your take on it? I grew up well below the poverty line and would hate to spend a lifetime building wealth only to have it consumed by a mediocre care facility where Im drooling on myself being fed applesauce by a CNA getting $9/hr while they charge me $15k/mo. Irrevocable trust? I dont care if Im in control of the funds when Im 80+ yrs old...if something terrible happens younger, hopefully its quick and I dont rack up a mountain of medical bills. Just dont want to be a burden on loved ones and would like to leave them as much as possible.
Average Retiree Investor that had 80 percent stocks would panic and sell out (at the wrong time of course) after a historic bad year.. Not sure how many advisors would put their retiree clients in a 80/20 set up. When bonds and guaranteed money is paying more than historic inflation, wouldn't it be prudent to load up on them? 6.25% on a 7 yr cd from insurance company with your state's insurance comm providing a backstop.. (myga).. is very compelling. Waiting until 70 with Social Security allows you to have some inflation protection and lower your risk ratio too. Planning to have your house and cars paid off at retirement means inflation won't affect you as much also. The S&P 500 is not what it used to be.. top 15 companies control the returns, making it more volatile.
I compare the P/E ratio based on my stock in the specific sector not the current S&P P/E.
Question: would anyone in the world actually follow those burdensome, detailed, granular dynamic spending guidelines as they related to bear markets, etc? The plan seems so unwieldy as to be useless, IMO. Just have a budget, withdraw what you need, and tighten your belts in tough market years. Use good old fashion division to see how many years of expenses you have and when you need to tighten.😊
The one thing this whole discussion is lacking esp if you are evaluating retiring early is how much (%) of your essential expenses will be covered by SS, pension, annuities, etc. in x number of years vs your portfolio. If say 80% of your “essential” spending is covered by these guaranteed sources you may only need some higher % of withdrawals over 4% your first 5 or 10 years of retirement to meet discretionary goals that will be sharply reduced once you collect SS or pensions, annuities start etc. In this sense this type of flexible approach on some discretionary items could indeed help you retire earlier than a simple calculation of 4% rule on investments would reveal.
For some who retire in their 50s or early 60s and delay SS it’s possible RMDs starting at 75 are actually not even needed to meet annual spending due to SA, pensions, annuities, reverse mortgages, etc. Would be nice to realize that and plan before you slave away another year or 10 that you could have spent on family, hobbies, etc.
Big ERN covers this well in his own work and the SWR Toolbox Rob showed here has functionality that lets you model those kinds of additional inflows which you mention. That makes it easy to determine your SWR net of these factors.
Honestly at the margins this is all mental mast…….
The fact is that the majority of people will not want to draw a steady percent every year. Income needs are dynamic for most and vary with other income streams.
Our needs vary from 6% to 2%. And ALL necessary costs are covered by SS at age 70.
Great points 👌🏼
I recall a few Mondays ago you stated that the SEC yield on a bond fund will hold ( more or less) for the period of time calculated by the effective duration, multiplied by 2 and subtracting 1. Not sure if I got that correct but using VCLT as an example with an "effective duration of 13.32 x 2 + 26.64 - 1 =25.6 years at the yield of 5.46%. Did I get that right and why/how is the 2 multiplier arrived at, seems like a high rate for a long long time.
Rob, if you don’t mind sharing, what spending rule do you prefer overall (understanding that it may not work for everyone)?
How do I know when I'm halfway through retirement?
When viagra stops helping.
Use life expectancy tables
Just like when you start your retirement, you take an educated guess on when you are going to die. Or you can ask a carnival fortune telling machine.
@@alex182618 That train has left the station.
Someone got an Apple Watch Ultra!
Rob, how do you have a lower P/E ratio than the S+P 500 in your portfolio?
Small caps I'm guessing. They're 20% off their all-time high.
Do I include taxes I need to pay in the total withdraw. In other words, does the 4, 5 or 6 percent include the taxes I will need to pay. A larger withdraw may kiick me into a higher tax rate...
Yes, the 4% rule includes your taxes. Taxes are just another expense in your budget.
your total withdrawal rate covers all your expenses, which includes taxes. A larger withdraw wouldn't necessarily push you into a higher tax bracket, because it would dependon which assets you are withdrawing (e.g. tax deferred, tax exempt, cap gains).
What if you get Alzheimers and need to go into care? It's about £50,000 a year in the UK.
That is a what if, but in reality, it does not affect most people, probably less than 15% of the population. That being said it did occur with my mom, she had it for the last 4 years of her life, costs averaged about 60k per year in the US in memory care facility. So not cheap, but if someone owns their home the equity will often cover their long term care costs.
HMMM
You need to stop using english terms that only apply to your system. You are losing subscribers.
Ah, nothing like paralysis by analysis. I find Big Ern and all the other vloggers with their 238 part series on financial minutia hard eye-roll-back-in-my-head nonsense. These so-called FIRE bloggers never seem to actually to be retired, never seem to follow their own advice, and always seem to be 1%ers who could go back to work if stuff hit the fan. Of course, they bloviated ad nauseum about the necessity of owning bonds. Yet when the first correction hits, their advice was worse than terrible (they oh-so-confidently used historical data to 'prove' bonds were necessary to smooth volatility). They blindly ignored the 600 lb gorilla - that 40 years of falling rates wasn't a realistic data set. The only rational conclusion was bonds were going to implode as soon as rates - inevitably - rose, and to avoid them like the plague (stay in cash). And thus the first test of these oh-so-confident portfolio recommendations (20-30-40% bonds) was a disaster - 2022 suffered worst bond performance in history. They all shrugged and said 'who could have guessed'? Ironically, now is a decent time to get into bonds - after they've blown up.