AI and the Productivity Paradox
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- Опубликовано: 8 сен 2024
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In a rapidly evolving world, we need to balance the fear surrounding AI and its role in the workplace with its potential to drive productivity growth. In this special live episode of Smart Talks with IBM, Malcolm Gladwell is joined onstage during NY Tech Week by Rob Thomas, Senior Vice President of Software and Chief Commercial Officer at IBM. They discuss “the productivity paradox”, the importance of open source AI, and a future where AI will touch every industry.
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Rob Thomas’ transition from early 2000s lead singer of Matchbox 20 to technology thought leader is nothing short of inspiring.
Smooth, even.
Also looks like @ornyadams is back on his meds
Fake it till you make it!
Rob's opening story of learning Vizio over the weekend after saying he knows it only to work on a consulting project about Vizio is the epitome of one of Ginni Romety's core ideas. That companies should hire on a person's propensity to learn, not just on what they already know. The continuous learning aspect of a career in IT that is so very relevant.
Maybe Ginni should have eaten her own dogfood!
The rise of AI is often hailed as a game-changer for boosting productivity, yet we find ourselves grappling with the "Productivity Paradox" where technological advancements don't always translate into immediate economic gains. While AI has the potential to automate tasks, optimize processes, and drive innovation, the paradox lies in the time it takes for these benefits to materialize across industries. Factors such as the need for skill development, organizational change, and the integration of AI into existing systems can create a lag between AI adoption and measurable productivity improvements. The question then becomes: how can we bridge this gap and fully realize AI's promise to enhance productivity in a meaningful and sustainable way?
And now imagine you are a client that paid extra for this "Vision Consultant". The whole consulting is a scam...
To a certain extent a subscription model, that continually tries to sell you on the final next big thing.
I never saw consultants finishing a project, there was always something to add - money.
But I don’t blame consulting. If customers blindly follow them, such treatment is well deserved.
Malcolm will always be remembered for getting cooked in the Munk Debates by Douglas Murray… cinema.
The question is why does gdp growth need to occur? The problem is the assumption that perpetual growth is inherently a good thing. This is a hegemonic perspective.
absolutely, the demand for perpetual growth is a fools errand. But what business has learnt this?
There’s are a few regions where the populations are still growing , but they often aren’t considered. Africa is growing , imagine looking there to build .
Because populations and societies grow
Why wouldn't you want economic efficiency to increase? And do you want to limit population growth in develop ed countries at the expense of economic growth for that country and those who need the jobs?
@@Super_Synthesis "Why wouldn't you want"
I want, but it is impossible for much longer. We live in a finite physical world. The exponential function is a terrible thing.
I've loved that the on-going learning aspect is highlighted at the very beginning. It sets the tone.
Malcolm was once one of my faves, but his conduct at the Munk Debate in 2022 made me reassess. It was the biggest debate loss (by audience vote) in the debate's history, and it revealed a lack of depth and manners on Gladwell's part.
This was a fascinating discussion. Rob identifies 3 requirements for GDP growth. I would be compelled to add a 4th requirement: GDP Growth and Fossil Fuel consumption have nearly a 90% correlation.
I’ve been listening to many in the tech industry state their concerns over data center and AI power requirements. I also hear many inferences suggesting “ample oil & gas” supply for the electrical power needs. Not sure I would count on natural gas for exponential AI growth. I’d highly recommend that teams within AI organizations strike up a conversations with producers and suppliers of natural gas.
They’ve been reporting declining well performance issues in US shale plays for quite some time.
In early 1900, the low hanging fruit were the vertical wells drilled into the natural oil reservoirs which were fed by the same source rock that we’ve been fracking for the past 25 years.
Production for the vertical wells peaked in the 1970s. Well performance in the Bakken, Eagleford, Barnett, Marcellus shale plays have been declining for a few years.
The Permian is still holding its own but it's expected to start declining in 2025. 70% of US oil production is coming from the Permian.
Below is one example of a producers concern:
Shale Billionaire Hamm Tackles ‘Generation 3’ Rock
www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-08/shale-billionaire-harold-hamm-wants-to-tap-into-generation-3-rock
Regina, I like your comment below. I had a face-to-face interview for a job some years ago, and the person interviewing me flat out told me that they don't really care much about what is on my resume, the reason why they do face-to-face interviews is to determine if the candidate is trainable.
After the complete shellacking Malcolm Gladwell took in a debate with Douglas Murray, I’m really surprised to see that IBM wanted to associate something with “Intelligence” its name with him. If you haven’t seen the debate, it’s quite something to behold, as Mr. Gladwell goes down in flames, and deservedly so.
Loved Rob‘s comment about 120% doing AI 😅
I understand he is from IBM, and he has to mention DeepBlue and Watson, but I cant believe he was not surprised with ChatGPT when it came out to skip naming it... 😄
Fascinating conversation! Leading to a major challenge, productivity stagnation both at national levels as well as workers level. Specially when so much tech has been brought into the equation.
I liked Gladwell here. His questions were not the usual ones that other interviewers ask. They're usual for him but others could learn a few things from his way of interviewing.
I'm not on the side of the haters of Malcolm as an interviewer.
YES, we always give more meaning and value to our time, humans tell themselves a whole lot of stories
I found the quant qual comparison insightful. Keeping these use-cases in mind.
There is so much going on in this video, from Malcolm's description of the state of education, to technology aging out as fast as a loaf bread. Hold on.
that opening story.. what was he thinking 🤣 jeez.. .
Yeah, it took me a while to (re)start ‘listening’… glad it was recorded 😅
Books for Visio? Just install and play. That's how I learn anything.
no wonder ibm is irrelevant in most new technologies. That story about vizio is exactly why ibm is not respected outside the x370 universe.
hehehe... That's not true though,. IBM is crushing it many areas that are not in public domain. That story about vizio is almost universal in all tech companies. Many successful companies have several moments in which some gal/guy decides to figure something out over a weekend or in some short time frame and then presto. Of course, they fix it later but these moments are not as unique.
Great vlog and 39 min is a good length.
Knowing Visio is not consulting. That is bodyshop work.
Good consultants do not tell businesses what to do.
Good consultants lead clients to discover the solution for themselves. Then the clients follow through with funding and implementation.
No matter how good your ideas, if told, presentations become beautiful shelf decorations.
This is why IBM has never been a top consulting group.
Interesting and Thought Proving.
O please, computers gate keeping resumes have caused huge issues in many many industries.
Anything that could give rise to smarter-than-human intelligence-in the form of Artificial Intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, or neuroscience-based human intelligence enhancement - wins hands down beyond contest as doing the most to change the world. Nothing else is even in the same league.
Technology may have advanced enough to release civilization from the confines of the second law of thermodynamics.
These confines were imposed during Victorian England's scientific and religious cultural fascination with steam engines.
The second law is behind modern refgeration needing electrical energy to compress the refrigerent to force it to release as waste the heat that it has removed from the refrigerator's service interior in the cooling part of the refrigerent's circulation. There is also discarded heat from mechanical friction and electrical resistance.
Refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it.
It makes more sense that refrigerators should yield electricity because energy is widely known to change form with no ultimate path of energy gain or loss being found. Therefore any form of fully recyclable energy can be cycled endlessly in any quantity.
In an extreme case senario, full heat recycling, all electric, very isolated underground, undersea, or space communities would be highly survivable with self sufficient EMP resistant LED light banks, automated vertical farms, thaw resistant frozen food storehouses, factories, dwellings, and self contained elevators and horizontal transports.
In a flourishing civillization senario, small self sufficient electric or cooling devices of many kinds and styles like lamps, smartphones, hotplates, water heaters, cooler chests, fans, radios, TVs, cameras, security devices, scales, transaction terminals, wall clocks, open or ciosed for business luminus signs, power hand tools, ditchdiggers, pumps, and personal transports, would be available for immediate use incrementally anywhere as people see fit.
Somé equipment groups could be consolidated on local networks.
If a high majority thinks our civilization should geoengineer gigatons or
teratons of carbon dioxide out of our environment, instalations using devices that convert ambient heat into electricity can hypothetically be scaled up do it with a choice of comsequences including many beneficial ones.
Energy sensible refrigerators that absorb heat and yield electricity would complement computers as computing consumes electricity and yields heat. Computing would be free. Chips could have energy recycling built in.
A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motioren of electrons or discrete positiive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive electricity when the electrical load is matched to the array impeadence.
Matched impeadence output (watts) is k, one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, Boltzman's constant, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency times the number of diodes in the array.
For reference, there are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter.
Order is imposed on the random thermal motion of electrons by the structual orderlyness of a diode array made of diodes made within a slab:
______________________ - Out
🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻
______________________ + Out
All the P type semiconductor anodes abut a metal conductive plane deposited on the top face of the slab with nonrectifying joins; all the N type semiconductor cathodes abut the bottom face. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more in equatorial dry desert summer days and less in polar desert winter nights.
Focusing on explaining the electronic behavior of one composition of simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus (N type)on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron (P type) with minimal disturbance of the crystal lattice. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact.
A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron ions donate holes which are similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients, where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Mobile electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap. Inside the diode, heat is absorbed: outside the diode, to exactly the same extent, an attached electrical circuit is energized.
Understanding diodes is one way to become convinced that Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise can be rectified and aggregated. Self assembling development teams may find many ways to accomplish this wide mission. Taxonomically there should be many ways ways to convert heat directly into electricity.
A practical device may use an array of Au needles in a SiO2 matrix abutting N type GaAs. These were made in the 1970s when registration technology was poor so it was easier to fabricate arrays and select one diode than just make one diode.
There are other plausible breeches of the second law of thermodynamics. Hopefully a lot of people will join in expanding the breech. Please share the successes or setbacks of your efforts.
These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by advanced automation that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified conglomerate of diverse local cooperatives. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the top if the wide majority of people can afford to be generous.
Aloha
Charles M Brown
Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754
IBM reviewed tĥe 2nd law in ~70s. They decided 2nd law held because system needs resetting. Carriers in diodes work blind.
Is this the same Rob Thomas of Matchbox Twenty?
It seems like the future of AI in the workplace could hinge on how well we integrate and collaborate with these technologies. What are your thoughts on overcoming the productivity paradox? Do you think we're on the verge of a breakthrough?"
If population stagnates, why GDP growth must be of concern?
not very insightful and very uninteresting interview sadly
exactly! 10 yrs ago, it probably was.
I have the sensation the interviewees cannot shake having to speak as an IBM employee. Narrow.
Very good conversation, very insightful and interesting
It is great because it demonstrates real value in very diverse cases. What I like is that it is AI being applied to top problems of even small companies.
It is also an excellent reminder that AI has been around for a decade without propelling IBM to rule the world.
Thank you both very much for sharing your time and work Malcolm and Rob, peace
Who still invites gladwell?
His not the subject of the interview but the interviewer
#open
nice talk - the risk is to hight to not learn and use AI every day:) _ I have been doing it for last 2 years - and now I am smiling - I have a lot of new great opportunities:) - life is good:)
So this guy starts his talk with a story about how lying got him ahead. Got it.
i think the term AI is unhelpful. Lets stop pretending this is anything other than it is. Brute force matrix calcs on a large data set.
Like a huge library, only we don't have to read all the books to get the answers we need
Why do you suppose the brain has 100 trillion connections? There is an element of brute force to our intelligence.
I prefer the term "giant linear algebra pile" lol
Perfect point. Flippers of matrix data due to compute power,just a modern search/database tool. When big dusty data becomes fashionable and widely celebrated is it a golden age or is it over already? AI simply means Advanced Internet
Everything in Computer Science is just compute really but it does help to separate them out somewhat to what they are trying to simulate. I have been in and out of AI since 1985 and really it all works around trying to artificially simulate intelligence so yeah the title is accurate lol.
A.I creating its own data model?
Any other MB20 fans here?
Malcolm loving taking that corporate money.
You're rich from writing books, Malcolm. Why would you need to do this?
interesting
he said he's not crazy.. just a little unwell
AI includes mathematical model that is more traditional / theoritical, statistical emperical models that are not approved by trad mathematicians, Heurustics / Algorithmic model that is not liked by mathematicians/ statisticians but used by computer programmers. Business wants model that is visual, they prefer simple flow, graphs / trends that they understand like % growth, trends, share, revenue margin units etc.
Ironically all big tech talking about open source is that group which is left behind ...lol
Honestly can’t listen to Malcom after his debate with Matt Taibi and Douglas Murray. Total pretender.
What happened in that debate?
True, Malcolm comes across as a person who is here to sell what ever narrative his boss has told him to.
Hi
Tesla cars are already robots. You don't need to add another humanoid shaped robot to make them drive.
The west and more generally western companies are in a situation where they could build some really profound and meaningful differences in the world.
Where things currently sit hardware has a shelf life for a purpose before becoming E waste but the net benefit of using that hardware and the previous generation models for the developing world would have a potential that would both build global trust whilst also being a philanthropic investment to provide real knowledge access to areas that have no access to the hardware or at least the newest hardware.
Just imagine a small village with access to an AI system that could provide answers to real world problems they may encounter using what would of been obsolescent tech and a core library system.
No way he's 29!
"Open source AI has to win. It is not just important for business, but for humans" 😃
Jones Jessica Gonzalez Brenda Rodriguez Frank
So lite on real details and meaning. He hasn't changed since he lied about Viso experience. Just blantant flimflam.
Ask them what is is ai
They speak like there Father and grand father product Ai
A tech guy from IBM went to the bookstore and bought books? Seriously. Did he ride his horse over there or did he have a buggy and a horse? Wow. The last time I was in a bookstore and bought books is at least a decade ago and I don't work for a tech company.
IB who?
Boring guy
Hi, my name is mahmoud
I want to start a youtube channel but my laptop is not helping me
Would you please help me to get a new one
It works well enough to comment on posts.