Why The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is 💀
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
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It's not about bitcoin halving. It's all about global liquidity cycle that aligned with bitcoin halving cycles. On average past global liquidity followed a 4 year cycle too. Bitcoin founder made the halving around that to make bitcoin pump in price. It all made on purpose. So yes bitcoin 4 year cycle work as long as global liquidity do it too.
That’s true. Liquidity is the key factor. Once the Fed starts pivoting that will increase liquidity in to the overall markets
Exactly
Plus political promises and fed printing. Brrrrrr into my bags.
Global liquidity does not have a 4 year cycle. It a abt 65 months so almost 5 and a half years.
@@kaboom669 it's around 4 years more or less. Satoshi Nakamoto thought about it that's why the 4 years halving event. It all made on purpose.
You are wrong, it’s done by design together with the global liquidity cycle.
Only those who don't understand Bitcoin think that halvings make it go parabolic. And for some reason youtubers always address this like everyone is uneducated.
Halvings make bottoms of the cycles go higher and higher if there is demand from long-term hodlers, what makes price go parabolic is money printing and hype.
I want to live on that green street
Everything is a cycle. Crypto is entering into a super cycle
The max supply of Kaspa is 28.7 Billion coins with an emission schedule that halves once per year via smooth monthly reductions by a factor of (1/2)^(1/12).
If everything you said way true, Gold today would be over $8000 an ounce. Gold is just a little over its 2011 high at 20% while M2 supply is over 300%. The reasons gold price has not increased inversely with dollar supply is the same reason Bitcoin will not. And that's what many just don't understand. If you want to have exposure to Bitcoin, most will just buy the ETF. Even if it is not really backed up 1:1, you'll benefit from the price swings. So why hold Bitcoin? This is what happened to Gold. This is what will happen Bitcoin.
In my opinion you are too pessimistic.
Thats why hé is making money and we watch RUclips because we lose money
@@benjouke1071 funny
@@mr.tobson6510 No, facts.
@@strmchsr1537 we will see😉
@@strmchsr1537we will see😉
I think it makes sense that the 4 year cycle will be less significant as the rate of inflation goes down. I don't think it makes sense to say that the 4 year cycle will just go away. A previous commenter said that the 4 year cycle is also in time with the global liquidity cycle. Also, people know about the 4 year cycle now, so it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Although if everybody were betting on a 4 year cycle, then you'd expect it to come early, because everybody will try to buy before the pump and sell before the dump. What makes most sense to me is not that the 4 year cycle simply stops, but that it becomes increasingly less significant over time.
Kaspa employs a halving schedule for its emission rate, similar to Bitcoin. The rate at which new coins are created reduces by half yearly, but unlike traditional halving events, Kaspa implements this through a gradual monthly reduction. This approach aims to prevent inflation and maintain the value of KAS over time.
It's all about global liquidity cycle, it actually has nothing to do with halving. just that the having falls in the low of the liquidity cycle.
Here's what you're missing. When block reward drops from 50 to 25, bitcoin was worth of only few dollars. When block reward dropped from 12.5 to 6.25, bitcoin was only few thousands dollars. Now, block rewards dropped 6.25 to 3.125, yes but bitcoin price is in 50-60's.
Remember, miners pay their bills in usd. so when you convert bitcoin value to usd, you can understand why this cycle will be wild.
In addition, there's etfs this time.
Bitcoin skyrocketed to 68k without spot etfs.
Etfs = Big catalyst.
Just wait for liquidity to come, bitcoin is a liquidity vacuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuum
Institutional money can not allow such volatility as before. The whole industry is different now
Nobody knows until it happens or doesn’t. Just prepare for both scenarios
you count cycles bottom to bottom not top to top, the 4 year cycle isnt dead until btc doesnt bottom on october 2026
Soon we'll see if the parabolic phase of btc price will start or not. If the cycle theory still holds true it should start somewhere in late Sep - Oct
this guy will dissapear when the market rallies. He loves being pessimistic. He just creates videos for clicks just like banter
I have been around during the rally as well. And I was optimistic during that time. Just check the history of this channel
Really appreciate your unique take on the market. Many great, insightful points you make. Lots to think about.
Kaspa launched in November 2021, with 95% of its coins to be mined by July 2026, a much faster issuance schedule than Bitcoin. This is what makes KAS multiple times faster than Bitcoin and with the possession of the same consensus mechanism, it has an added layer of security. Due to this Kaspa has surpassed Bitcoin, making Kaspa widely mined and acceptable in comparison to Bitcoin, which is a flagship of all cryptocurrencies itself.
Please do your own research; this should not be considered financial advice.
Kaspa has surpassed btc inwhat exactly? Real question, I hold both.
In the end it is all abt network effect, which is a modern take on supply and demand
@@kaboom669
Kaspa has the fastest Layer 1 Proof-of-Work BlockDAG. With a current capacity of one block per second and plans to reach ten, Kaspa significantly outperforms giants like Bitcoin and Litecoin in transaction speed. While most PoW cryptocurrencies are based on a linear blockchain, Kaspa uses a BlockDAG structure that allows blocks to be parallelized and therefore offers higher transaction speeds and scalability. Kaspa uses a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism called GHOSTDAG protocol, and unlike bitcoin, it allows multiple blocks to be produced simultaneously. This process helps make transactions faster and provides more block rewards for miners. Kaspa solves the blockchain trilemma by offering scalability, security, and decentralization. Kaspa's fast block times and high security make it ideal for peer-to-peer transactions, micropayments, and other use cases that require speed and reliability. PoW means transactions are validated when miners solve complex algorithms. And that costs a lot of energy and money. Kaspa, on the other hand, uses an algorithm called kHeavyHash, which is much more energy efficient. That means it's better for the environment and cheaper to run. Another advantage of Kaspa coin is its low transaction fees. Compared to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Kaspa coin's transaction fees are significantly lower, making it an affordable option for people who use it for everyday transactions. Kaspa KRC20 smart contracts offer a compelling alternative to existing smart contract platforms, offering scalability, security, interoperability, flexibility, and lower transaction costs.
Great! No pump, no dump! No more 80% drawdown!
We have seen the top already this cycle. Everybody's sitting there thinking they're going to become millionaires with these altcoins. 😅
Great video bro
Appreciate it
Great job
Vous nous informez objectivement et peu le font aussi honnêtement que vous, pour cela, que vous ayez tort ou raison, vous êtes au dessus du panier car vous argumentez vos points de vue avec des données on chaîn...merci
Épatant
A nous de prendre nos décisions, nous n aval s pas tous le même timing ni le même argent ni les mêmes contraintes ,vous vous nous informez de manière hautement qualitative, que vos détracteurs lorsqu ils répondent négativement fassent de même !
Les cycles sont dans l'économie car ils sont dans la vie...ils sont donc aussi dans les cryptos ...
L Économie n est pas une science exacte , KITCHIN,Juger, Kondratieff et les cycles se recoupent et oui ,peut être est on sur le pont de voir finir un défi supercycle et est on à un point de retournement majeur ...pas seulement de 4 ans ...en log le prix du BTC ne fait plus de plus haut haut et son élasticité diminue relativement ...or c est quand le dernier vendeur a vendu que l apex de retournement se produit ....peut etre approche t on ce point là ? Why not?
Merci pour cet apport instructif et de qualité ❤
People need to actually watch your vids before talking garbage.
Its actually really good
Sorry but it doesn't make sense comparing to Eth's supply.
Enjoyed the vid…. I still want to know what you’re smoking? 😊
Nope it's exactly the same. Lots of other things change etc. But the 4 year cycle is in tact and wont really ever go away .
disagree. not enough evidence.
Demand is also affected by what people want. If people would rather spend their money on something else than they did over the last several BTC cycles, then the price of BTC doesn't necessarily rise as much, or at all. If enough people are absolutely going crazy to get some BTC, then yes the price will go up. Otherwise... who knows. When inflation is too high people want to eat and keep their homes more than they want bitcoin.
mmmmhhhhh.... ich hatte eine ähnliche Einschätzung im Hinterkopf aber es bleibt die Frage: wie passt das in die immer wieder herangezogene Grafik mit den verbundenen Tiefs + Hochs? Dieser Kanal wird schmäler + passt zu der Theorie das es nicht mehr regelmäßig alle 4 Jahre ein 10X gibt... aber selbst bei einem 2-3x wird der Kanal in den nächsten Jahren "zu eng"! 🤔
Didn't you recently post a video warning that the btc long term bull market coincided with a Nasdaq100 long term bull market? And now you're saying that correlation is low?!?!
there are two converging multiyear trendlines this bull run that I believe will set bitcoin into a completely different kind of cycle if any at all...
Are you in DPC?
Awesome, as usual!
Thank you! Cheers!
Its over then, closing the video not reason to keep on btc or watching this videos.
We'll see what happens.
Atm im dying of boredom and any moves down or up, I welcome 😂.
Hi top g
Guys, just follow the charts! :)
We will find out in about 30 days ..
With all respect Gerhard. But you need to be careful with predictions like this. Even historically we have not yet met the possible peak post-halving. You may regret this video once Bitcoin explodes just to get some attention now
Makes sense
Are you in Playa Del Carmen?
If you click on his About section you will see he is based in Hong Kong
Really hope dosnt believe this bearish talk, bc in october when rally really starts taking off they would be disappointed.
Great content, I'm a contrarian and this time may be different...
Could BTC range sideways forever...?
We see BTC price top out with diminishing cycle returns, increasingly more price numbing OTC transactions & a growing number of custodial fractional reserve BTC Banking apps like Strike and Fold. So more fake BTC like on the exchanges...
Is it time to look at Bitcoin Cash ?
Bitcoin Cash is arguably the better Bitcoin, fast, cheap P2P L1 transactions & smart contracts
lol BCH, trash
Amém to that
The FUD channel
Du postest immer nur sachen die schon passiert sind …. Leider laum mehrwert in deinem viedeos
Bull run is around the corner. And you will fomo like anyone else
If id listened to you I'd have no gains
I use you for a counter signal
Absolute midcurve
Nah!
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