Hey guys, ChristaBorg here. I wanted to help expand a little on this video and answer some of the questions I've seen in the comments. Note that this will be a statistics-heavy post, so if this isn't your thing, you dont have to click the read more button. First, I want to share a good visual representation of this downswing. Some of you have mentioned a gaussian distribution (in simpler terms, a bell curve or bell graph). This is a visual representation of all the data points that fit a certain criteria. Here's what pav's gaussian distribution looks like: gyazo.com/29d4c25e9609bc8b55519ecc38db0736 ... The part that is colored blue is where pav is.... What? You dont see where it's colored blue? That's because its over 3 deviations off of center, and has a likelyhood of somewhere in the P(0.0002) range. So, 0.02% of this diagram is colored blue (it's on the left side), and that's where pav is. YIKERS. Poker is a game of incomplete information. ROI's are fluid, and change constantly. We will never know our true ROI because the game (and our skill level compared to the game) both change so much and so often that we will never have a sample size big enough to have a REALLY good handle on ROI. This video is just an introductory look into the math and the ideas behind variance in a business (and poker) environment. The truth is we will never have completely accurate information to go on, so the results spit out of the variance generator are not going to be completely accurate (they will instead merely be as accurate as we can calculate). This video however, shows everyone the METHOD we used to get these results, so with that being said, we can pretty easily answer a few of the questions I've seen in the comments this morning. Q: How likely were the first 4 winning months where we peaked at +154k in May? A: We can use the same calculator to do this. First, the data points that we will use. Field 443 Buyin 161 Fee 16.10 ROI 15.9% Volume: 22.5 games per day x 5.5 days per week x 16 weeks (4 months) = 1980 games Those results yield this statistical data: gyazo.com/51320255eccc73325b8c42eacd30548c ... +154k is pretty bang on the top end of the 2nd level of deviation, meaning that those first 4 months were in the top 5% of possible results for pav. He was definitely on an upswing. To put that in scale though, something that happens 5% of the time is over 15x as likely as something that happens only 0.3% of the time (and over 200 times as likely as the 0.02% diagram that the bell curve shows us). Basically, We should expect pav to have (+154k stretches of 4 months) anywhere from 15 to 200 times as often as (-110k stretches in 3.5 months). Q: What if your weighted averages are wrong? What if PAV's ROI is not this high? A: This is the most valid question ive seen, by far. The fact is, the averages ARE wrong (in the sense that we cannot know pav's true ROI). When we took the weighted averages of pav's different buyin levels, we showed the method of how we did it, so if you disagree with some of the numbers, you can plug those into the calculator and see. Let's take a couple examples. Let's say we dont think pav is 16% ROI in $500s. Maybe he's running above expectation during his sample (it's a small sample, after all). Let's knock it down about 1/3rd, to 10%. We should probably do the same to his 215's ROI as well. He has a sunday special bink for a big amount, maybe that's skewing his results a bit. Let's knock him from 23.3 to 15%. His 109s and below, while a big sample, are probably not indicative of his current playstyle. I personally dont think he's only a 12.2% ROI player at those levels, but let's be super conservative here and keep that the same. Those 3 totals give us a weighted average ROI of 12.82%. This is on the extremely low end, IMO, but I digress. Everything else stays the same, the sample gives us this data: gyazo.com/c9b4dd67a7d23d410291b1e3aef4f82e As you can see, even with these VERY CONSERVATIVE numbers, pav's results are STILL above 3 deviations outside the mean, meaning they are STILL in the bottom 0.3% of all possible results, and our estimate of this downswing happening once a lifetime is still accurate. To continue down this line of thinking, we can play with the calculator a bit. If pav was a 0% ROI player, and was completely breakeven, his profit would be $0 and his deviation would be $40,332. HE WOULD STILL BE 3 DEVIATIONS below normal, and would be in the bottom 0.3% (or bottom 0.5% if you want to be optimistic) of results. I'll try to answer more questions as I see them. Neimos1 also seems like he has a very good grasp of statistical analysis, so he can answer questions as well.
Great work Chris, I think your numbers and post answers all questions that might be raised. Thanks for sharing. Even with the conservative ROI, which I think personally is a good estimate (always good to be conservative) he is still on a massive downswing. By just looking at your post also the images Chris, I came to notice also that there is a + skew. For those of you that know Gaussian distribution, the tail is on the right side (+ side) not on left side (- side) of the Gaussian distribution; in other words there is asymmetry. Hence, the integral of the pdf would change more drastically on the - side (when we calculate the probability of an event occurring) than the + side. In addition to that, it has a low kurtosis which means the data exhibits tail data generally less extreme than the Gaussian distribution. These two statistics measures combined even worsens PAV's downswing. Good luck man, hope the come back will be good.
Major props for being so level throughout all of this. I totally get what it's like to have people in Twitch or on RUclips hassling you over results, and I can't imagine dealing with a downswing like this AND having to handle that at the same time. Well done.
Hope you get out of this brutal downswing soon mate. Also mad respect for always showing your results even through a downswing, a lot of people can't do that. Shows insane mental strength and stability for poker.
Unfortunate number of events PAV. But I would like to add some more insight: Good analysis, but one should also look into the first 4 months of winnings (Jan till May). They are in the +150k within 4 months, hence they are close to 3 standard deviations of + side. As it is the case it makes me question ROI, since those two events occurring in a row is even more unlikely with these numbers. So I am assuming the numbers might be off. (Especially the ROI in higher stakes vs lower stakes. As the buy in increases you would expect a lower ROI, since the pool gets tougher. Hence, I am not so sure about 12.2%,16%, 23% ROIs as the latter two games has only 800 samples whereas the former has 8000 samples from a normal distribution) Note on this : If you binked the high stakes in the beginning of the year, it will drive ROIs higher. When you use them in your downswing calculations, they will be misleading as your sampling from an upswing to understand a downswing. Statistically speaking in terms of 800 samples is ok to use however, in an event structure where the payout is so heavily based on top 3, sometimes even 800 number of samples would be misleading. (It would depend on how many times you binked them at those stakes and look at the histogram of these plots. I would generally use 12.2 as best case scenario for 16% and 23% and use a longer time frame like a year or so to see your EV and standard deviation) Your standard deviation was around 48K with EV 48K, but I assume in reality it must be higher than that. As in two consecutive months being in the very unlikely side of two events (+3 standard dev, then -4 standard dev) is very unlikely. Still possible though. Hope things get better for you soon.
Because the sample is for a longer period of time (5 months, if you include both January and May), its not 3 standard deviations of the + side, its about 2, which puts it in the top 5% (see my big post above). You are correct that it is an upswing though, and we may be working with slightly inflated ROIs because of him coming off a good sized upswing. As you can see in the big post above as well, even at a lowered ROI we're still looking at an exceptionally rare downswing. Great analysis overall though.
@@christaborg86 Totally agreed. Yes, it is a downswing. Yes, the upswing is around in the vicinity of 2-3 standard deviations, hence I was rounding but as you have said to be correct it is within the 95-99.7%. Thanks for the work and the video - much appreciated. Side note: PAV posted down below average 2019 results out of 7000 games. With EV 195K and Standard Dev 90K - with 40K profit overall it shows how his downswing in the last 4 months dominated his slight upswing in the very first 4 months - interesting stuff to see these from a perspective of a poker player. It sure would affect most of the players when they face with something like that.
As mentioned, downswings depend on so much more than just losing over x-amount of months. It comes down to games played and ROI. Many tend to talk about downswings purely in terms of time and don't take in to account everything else. Anyway, hope this was informative and I'll see you next time. I pinned a comment from Chris where he answers some FAQ. Definitely worth the read. Thanks again to Chris for using his big brain words to better explain everything!
Very clear and also insanely complicated explanation. Thanks a lot for this. I was one of the donks asking about your downswing, haha! Remember that 95% (if the ROI is stable ~°~) of the people asking is doing it for the right reasons, they love watching you and wish you all the best, I'm one of those. Good luck on the field man, keep all your heads up!
We appreciate you always being so open and honest Pav! Unreal downswing, but no doubt you are getting out of it. Looking forward to witness the coming upswing on twitch! Pavsicko get em mate!
Wow, that was super cool information! Did not know you could calculate the probability of a y down swing. Thanks for sharing PAV and look forward to seeing you in the greens again soon!
Hey Pav great video. You are my favorite streamer due to your transparency and your incredible control even when variance isn't going your way. I'm mostly a cash game player but I can learn a lot from you when it comes to resolve and not feeling sorry for myself when variance doesn't go my way. Keep on grinding and I'll keep on watching you from Los Angeles. Good luck mate. 👍
From my experience, 200-300 buyins (abi) downswings are quite common, usually they happen 2 or 3 times a year. 5-600bi are rare, once every 2-3 years. 16% is too optimistic for your schedule, 10% is already really hard for abi166 with lots of turbo's.
there's a very detailed post pinned about how even at a 10% ROI, hell even at a breakeven 0% ROI, the size and timeframe (in games played) of his downswing makes this a once in a lifetime swing.
When I want to analyze how am I doing in tournaments I add some new parametres. Ratio between starting chips and how much EV chips we made in tournament. Lets call it "Koefficient of succes" = "S" For example: 30 k starting chips, 22.5k EV chips, S = 0.75 Then we can estimate average "S" during some period of time on good number of tournaments And we can make "weighted S" by multiplying it by buyin (amount of dollars) = "wS" And also look at it during some time For example S = 0.75 Buy-in is 55, so "wS" = 41.75 Then we compare summary of total BI and summary of all "wS" Maybe you will find that intersing, PAV Best regards.
Great video as this inevitable fate will happen to all of us players at some point and perhaps multiple times. This is good to keep people grounded and understand this game we love can be brutal at times. You are the only streamer out there who is completely transparent about wins/ losses on a daily basis and I respect that. Keep at it buddy, you are gonna come through the other side a stronger player armed with thicker skin. Your true Twitch fans have your back. See ya on the next stream.
My last 8 live bullets have been either a two or three outter on the River or there was one flopped set over set, on one and a flopped flush over flush on another.
Nice content. I'm curious as to the likelihood of your upswing earlier in the year given all the same information (abi/field size etc)? Would be cool to see a video of you talking about the stats on your upswing. Also, taking your whole year into account, it would be nice to see how you're running overall. For the year, with your huge upswing at the beginning included, I'm curious if your within 1 standard deviation of normal expectancy, or you're still way off in one direction or another due to variance?
@All In PAV I just typed some comment above. I think 2019 average graph is more correct. You can not sample your distribution from an Upswing or a Downswing (referring to the high ROI rate in higher stakes). That would yield incorrect results. Hence you need a normal Gaussian distribution, which yields all the games in your upswings and downswings and sample from that to find your mean and standard deviation. In your case, 2019 average shows a better explanation to all these. With 190 mean and 90k standard deviation. Then this explains what you are experiencing. With these numbers, your first 4 months of upswing is almost close to the mean, your downswing is around -3 standard deviations. With the old numbers you were experiencing two very unlikely events in a very close time frame.
@Andrew Kagan I don’t think it is fake news. There is some downswing for sure with his ROI. It is nice of him to share with his community. The only thing is : It is not that unlikely to occur as in once in a life time event.
@@Neimos1 Yeah I shouldn't have used that word and I appreciate Pav being honest about his results. Most people try to hide them. Pads had a good thread on twitter recently how it's inevitable that a HSMTT reg will have a downswing equal to one year's EV. Is a good read: twitter.com/plenopads/status/1186301032944537600
Great vid! Very informative. Also it would be interesting to look at Evbb/100 versus actual bb/100 for the last several month. Numbers and Graph. Maybe exclude early blinds or just make 0-40bb filter. And on the upswing to compare Thanks for being so open to us. Hope Pav 'll see my comment :)
Can't track that on partypoker (no huds) and ACR doesn't track winrates on PT4 correctly. Go compare for yourself; it'll show you a completely different evbb/100 on ACR vs all your other sites. I also play very little volume on stars. evbb/100, although a fairly accurate stat for where your overall game is at, is not an accurate stat for your EV lost in tournaments. For example: You could be beasting the entire field at bb100/200/500/1k etc, but be getting super coolered at bb10k+ where the highest equity spots await.
does rounding down 1 $530, 3 $215s and 6 $109s to an avg 10 game sample not influence the variance? in an extremer example, let's say i play a $1K at breakeven and 9 $10s at 100% roi every 10 games. you could round that down to an avg stake of $109 at a total roi of 8.3%. but that'll forget the fact that you're dealing with the variance of playing $1Ks at breakeven. maybe this problem was tackled already and I didn't notice, but it feels like the difference in stakes will influence the variance a decent bit, too
playing 9 $11s at 100% ROI and 1 1k at 0% ROI will yield very similar variance and results to playing 10 $109s at an ROI of 8.3%. Your 1k variance will be intense, but the profit from $11s will mitigate it a little bit. It'd look similar to being a slight winner in $109s at 8.3% ROI and dealing with those swings without having a cushion of 100% ROI at $11s.
I've only played 56 live tourneys over $100 and I'm over live tourneys (we both were when I met you in Vegas lol). I need to hit up NZ and play for a series there. But these results - do they factor in tourney runners? Larger fields have way more variance involved. And if you're playing larger buy in events, then that also skews results further. I'd be interested to see the impact that has, if any, or if ROI is just what you use to do this. Your style of play factors into this too at different stages. I'd love to hear your insights on that. Laggy play makes for more top 3 finishes, but 'small ball'/tag play gets you more cashes. What does the number of runners do to that? You'd think it'd be smarter to play laggy when people play tight or against fields that overfold (happens more live than online tbh) in general (obviously other things factor in like stack sizes, bounties etc), and to play a bit more 'standard' elsewhere and take spots but this is more ideal for either large field tourneys and live tourneys where balancing isn't as important. In the standard games you play... you need to balance.
Can always rely on the Pavlova to post realistic and genuine videos. the dude is one of only a handful of guys i know that are brutally honest and dont talk shit...quite refreshing in the cesspool that is poker.
Friendly advice PAV!For me it doesn't matter the ABI, but it matters the Buyins of a unique day-session. I saw you playing 5k in a session.. Thats really huge!! You should have a BRM at least 500K in order to not ever be broke! I am watching so many players and I realize how big is the variance in the game BUT! considering a really strong BRM for a pro should never pass the 1% of his BRM per session. Love your work! Thumbs up!
That's not how it works. If my abi was like 2k, then yes you'd be correct. But it's not. It's $180. Big difference. I'm spreading my investments across 22 MTTs a day.
@@ALLinPav you read really fast and you didn't get what I wanted to say. I mean , when you think of an ABI think it like a whole session.. I know sounds weird for you.but If you concentrate on playing that style I think you are going to be very very rich! It's a hard process to think "I will invest only 1% per session."
@@NikosZ That wouldn't make you any richer. You would make money slower and simply reduce the variance. My brm video is a good foundation for players if you want to watch it.
If you can play your A-game, playing so many tournaments and that works for you then it's fine! I have seen that BRM video but I think it applies only when you play 5 tournaments a day. If you have bigger volume then numbers change. Especially in online is 5× tougher than live games. A 500$ tournament in live is softer than an online 100$.
Isnt there only a 0.015% chancs instead of a 0.03% chance? cause there's a 0.03% chance of being outside of a 3rd stdev? Meaning it'd be a 1/200 year downswing?
Believing that Mike Postle is a god, seems more legit than believing that you are having 4 deviations downswing. That means, that those numbers you put in aren’t realistic at all
My post discusses this and runs through some simulations of if his ROI is much smaller then we used, and it still isnt pretty. Even at a 5% ROI, he is still above 3 deviations below the mean.
I'm up 36k for the year but have been losing for the last 3.5months. This video is about how downswings and variance work, not if I'm up or down for the year.
You're average 10 sample tournaments I think were a bit off if you add in a lot of the 33, 44, 55 mtts across all sites. Regardless, you'll bounce out of this downswing.
Well, not quite. This SPECIFIC downswing (3.5 months and -114k) should only happen every 90odd years, but as you can see in the stats there is a 14% chance of loss in his sample over 3.5 months, so honestly we should expect him to have a breakeven or losing stretch lasting longer then 3 months once every few years. The abnormal part isnt the "down after 3.5 months of MTTs" part. It's the "down literally a fucking house after 3.5 months" part ;)
All of that was explained in the video. We grouped the ABI from $0-$109, $109-$270 and $270+, gathered the ROI's, got the weighted averages and used those results. See Chris' pinned comment explaining more FAQ.
Senior to money or winning is ones ability to handle life and be honest with themselves.You seek to live with the truth and for that reason you are a winner period.All Hellmuths money in the world and people like him wish they had your happiness and your sense of self.They should seek to live with the truth like you as opposed to seeking to be admored etc.One more small thing,people like you always turn things around just a law of the universe.If you can have bad happening...like magic it dissapears.Cheers
Not even variance improbabilities that can happen once every 97 years can bust you Pav, you are a beast. Stop spewing so much and you will be back shipping some 6 digits 😉
Like most tournament pros will never hit 1700 tournaments played in their lifetime unless they're throwing multiple bullets and playing everything they can in the WSOP and avoid downswinging in that whole time.
@@NikhilAutar I would disagree there is more variance in live tournies. In terms of duration (staying in the downswing), yes, you'll be in a downswing farrrrr longer. But in terms of games played, it won't be as bad due to your higher ROI%.
@@ALLinPav you're right. I did mean over time. Still; I don't think many people are making 1000 tourneys in less than 5 years. What would an average roi be on a live tourney assuming 10% rake standards. Any solid figures on what they are for higher stakes with less rake? I don't think these numbers exist
Your Calculations of ROI are incorrect. You assume that your ROI is the same during an upswing and downswing. They are clearly not for one specific reason: During a downswing you have a lot more reentries into tournaments. When you enter a tournament at the beginning you start with an average stack so your expected ROI higher than when you reenter the tournament, when you may have less than 1/2 average stack. Your expected ROI in a tournament when having 1/2 average stack is substantially lower than being average stack. The process of reentering tourneys, just in the pure math reduces your ROI and during a downswing you reenter a lot more; therefore feeding the downswing as your playing a lot of entries with much lower ROI if any ROI at all.
Not really sure where to go with this because it's kind of all over the place. But your ROI is your ROI, it's the lifetime return on your investment, upswings downswings etc all included, im not sure why you think actual EV shrinks during a downswing and grows during an upswing, because it doesnt. What changes is if you are running below or above said EV.
I understand 0% of what that dude talks about. But i should never play poker again if you have a 3 months downswing. If i would play poker every dau and loose for 3 months i shoul sell myself on pieces and the toe remaining would still be bankrupt. Please tell me that over all you are a wining poker player. Good luck!!
Bullshit math.. Taking only the bad run 3 months into consideration... why not take the hall sample lel? Gives people the false impression that he's the most unlucky player in the world which is far from it, actually probably still a luckbox. Cheers
I don't think anyone who watched the video got that impression. We took the whole year into considering mate. Watch the video again and listen to the weighted averages.
Math is fun and all - but it's obvious that you were cursed in Vegas and you need to go back and retrieve your soul before you can expect to win again. Sorry mate. Best of luck.
@@ALLinPav no problem buddy, variance it's incredible right? Have You expirienced upswings like this or close? What's the highest standard deviation on an upswing you have expirienced?
Wow I had no idea you had been losing, I thought you were always winning tournaments! Hopefully you get some massive jar jah binks to continue on your statistical anomaly but in the opposite direction! Good luck!
Hey guys, ChristaBorg here.
I wanted to help expand a little on this video and answer some of the questions I've seen in the comments. Note that this will be a statistics-heavy post, so if this isn't your thing, you dont have to click the read more button.
First, I want to share a good visual representation of this downswing. Some of you have mentioned a gaussian distribution (in simpler terms, a bell curve or bell graph). This is a visual representation of all the data points that fit a certain criteria.
Here's what pav's gaussian distribution looks like: gyazo.com/29d4c25e9609bc8b55519ecc38db0736 ... The part that is colored blue is where pav is.... What? You dont see where it's colored blue? That's because its over 3 deviations off of center, and has a likelyhood of somewhere in the P(0.0002) range. So, 0.02% of this diagram is colored blue (it's on the left side), and that's where pav is. YIKERS.
Poker is a game of incomplete information. ROI's are fluid, and change constantly. We will never know our true ROI because the game (and our skill level compared to the game) both change so much and so often that we will never have a sample size big enough to have a REALLY good handle on ROI. This video is just an introductory look into the math and the ideas behind variance in a business (and poker) environment. The truth is we will never have completely accurate information to go on, so the results spit out of the variance generator are not going to be completely accurate (they will instead merely be as accurate as we can calculate).
This video however, shows everyone the METHOD we used to get these results, so with that being said, we can pretty easily answer a few of the questions I've seen in the comments this morning.
Q: How likely were the first 4 winning months where we peaked at +154k in May?
A: We can use the same calculator to do this. First, the data points that we will use.
Field 443
Buyin 161
Fee 16.10
ROI 15.9%
Volume: 22.5 games per day x 5.5 days per week x 16 weeks (4 months) = 1980 games
Those results yield this statistical data: gyazo.com/51320255eccc73325b8c42eacd30548c ... +154k is pretty bang on the top end of the 2nd level of deviation, meaning that those first 4 months were in the top 5% of possible results for pav. He was definitely on an upswing. To put that in scale though, something that happens 5% of the time is over 15x as likely as something that happens only 0.3% of the time (and over 200 times as likely as the 0.02% diagram that the bell curve shows us).
Basically, We should expect pav to have (+154k stretches of 4 months) anywhere from 15 to 200 times as often as (-110k stretches in 3.5 months).
Q: What if your weighted averages are wrong? What if PAV's ROI is not this high?
A: This is the most valid question ive seen, by far. The fact is, the averages ARE wrong (in the sense that we cannot know pav's true ROI). When we took the weighted averages of pav's different buyin levels, we showed the method of how we did it, so if you disagree with some of the numbers, you can plug those into the calculator and see. Let's take a couple examples.
Let's say we dont think pav is 16% ROI in $500s. Maybe he's running above expectation during his sample (it's a small sample, after all). Let's knock it down about 1/3rd, to 10%.
We should probably do the same to his 215's ROI as well. He has a sunday special bink for a big amount, maybe that's skewing his results a bit. Let's knock him from 23.3 to 15%.
His 109s and below, while a big sample, are probably not indicative of his current playstyle. I personally dont think he's only a 12.2% ROI player at those levels, but let's be super conservative here and keep that the same.
Those 3 totals give us a weighted average ROI of 12.82%. This is on the extremely low end, IMO, but I digress. Everything else stays the same, the sample gives us this data: gyazo.com/c9b4dd67a7d23d410291b1e3aef4f82e
As you can see, even with these VERY CONSERVATIVE numbers, pav's results are STILL above 3 deviations outside the mean, meaning they are STILL in the bottom 0.3% of all possible results, and our estimate of this downswing happening once a lifetime is still accurate.
To continue down this line of thinking, we can play with the calculator a bit. If pav was a 0% ROI player, and was completely breakeven, his profit would be $0 and his deviation would be $40,332. HE WOULD STILL BE 3 DEVIATIONS below normal, and would be in the bottom 0.3% (or bottom 0.5% if you want to be optimistic) of results.
I'll try to answer more questions as I see them. Neimos1 also seems like he has a very good grasp of statistical analysis, so he can answer questions as well.
Great work Chris, I think your numbers and post answers all questions that might be raised. Thanks for sharing. Even with the conservative ROI, which I think personally is a good estimate (always good to be conservative) he is still on a massive downswing.
By just looking at your post also the images Chris, I came to notice also that there is a + skew. For those of you that know Gaussian distribution, the tail is on the right side (+ side) not on left side (- side) of the Gaussian distribution; in other words there is asymmetry. Hence, the integral of the pdf would change more drastically on the - side (when we calculate the probability of an event occurring) than the + side.
In addition to that, it has a low kurtosis which means the data exhibits tail data generally less extreme than the Gaussian distribution.
These two statistics measures combined even worsens PAV's downswing.
Good luck man, hope the come back will be good.
SYNOPSIS: There is running like poop, and then there is running like Pav.
Chris you are a real smart bloke. Thanks for your hard work.
Pav good on ya for being so honest about your results. This downswing is unreal and I can't wait to see you get through to the other side.
Same mate. Cheers!
Major props for being so level throughout all of this. I totally get what it's like to have people in Twitch or on RUclips hassling you over results, and I can't imagine dealing with a downswing like this AND having to handle that at the same time. Well done.
Appreciate it Matt
He is a Robot.
Hope you get out of this brutal downswing soon mate. Also mad respect for always showing your results even through a downswing, a lot of people can't do that. Shows insane mental strength and stability for poker.
That's the silver lining of this whole thing. Building better mental strength.
Unfortunate number of events PAV. But I would like to add some more insight: Good analysis, but one should also look into the first 4 months of winnings (Jan till May). They are in the +150k within 4 months, hence they are close to 3 standard deviations of + side. As it is the case it makes me question ROI, since those two events occurring in a row is even more unlikely with these numbers.
So I am assuming the numbers might be off. (Especially the ROI in higher stakes vs lower stakes. As the buy in increases you would expect a lower ROI, since the pool gets tougher. Hence, I am not so sure about 12.2%,16%, 23% ROIs as the latter two games has only 800 samples whereas the former has 8000 samples from a normal distribution)
Note on this : If you binked the high stakes in the beginning of the year, it will drive ROIs higher. When you use them in your downswing calculations, they will be misleading as your sampling from an upswing to understand a downswing. Statistically speaking in terms of 800 samples is ok to use however, in an event structure where the payout is so heavily based on top 3, sometimes even 800 number of samples would be misleading. (It would depend on how many times you binked them at those stakes and look at the histogram of these plots. I would generally use 12.2 as best case scenario for 16% and 23% and use a longer time frame like a year or so to see your EV and standard deviation)
Your standard deviation was around 48K with EV 48K, but I assume in reality it must be higher than that. As in two consecutive months being in the very unlikely side of two events (+3 standard dev, then -4 standard dev) is very unlikely. Still possible though.
Hope things get better for you soon.
Dude you need to get laid more go out have some fun , good analysis tho lol
@@BMan-up3qj Thanks ape.... Let's catch up when you grow up.
Because the sample is for a longer period of time (5 months, if you include both January and May), its not 3 standard deviations of the + side, its about 2, which puts it in the top 5% (see my big post above). You are correct that it is an upswing though, and we may be working with slightly inflated ROIs because of him coming off a good sized upswing. As you can see in the big post above as well, even at a lowered ROI we're still looking at an exceptionally rare downswing.
Great analysis overall though.
@@christaborg86 Totally agreed. Yes, it is a downswing. Yes, the upswing is around in the vicinity of 2-3 standard deviations, hence I was rounding but as you have said to be correct it is within the 95-99.7%. Thanks for the work and the video - much appreciated.
Side note: PAV posted down below average 2019 results out of 7000 games. With EV 195K and Standard Dev 90K - with 40K profit overall it shows how his downswing in the last 4 months dominated his slight upswing in the very first 4 months - interesting stuff to see these from a perspective of a poker player.
It sure would affect most of the players when they face with something like that.
As mentioned, downswings depend on so much more than just losing over x-amount of months. It comes down to games played and ROI. Many tend to talk about downswings purely in terms of time and don't take in to account everything else. Anyway, hope this was informative and I'll see you next time. I pinned a comment from Chris where he answers some FAQ. Definitely worth the read. Thanks again to Chris for using his big brain words to better explain everything!
I think the downswing is well deserved... After all your bullshit talk in the past about swings....welcome to the team
Very clear and also insanely complicated explanation. Thanks a lot for this. I was one of the donks asking about your downswing, haha! Remember that 95% (if the ROI is stable ~°~) of the people asking is doing it for the right reasons, they love watching you and wish you all the best, I'm one of those. Good luck on the field man, keep all your heads up!
We appreciate you always being so open and honest Pav! Unreal downswing, but no doubt you are getting out of it. Looking forward to witness the coming upswing on twitch! Pavsicko get em mate!
Cheers Wes!
Need a hell of a mindset to battle thru this, salute to u Pav for the perseverance and honesty 👍
Didn't know how much it really went into it. Love the info and content. Good luck
Wow, that was super cool information! Did not know you could calculate the probability of a y down swing. Thanks for sharing PAV and look forward to seeing you in the greens again soon!
Hey Pav great video. You are my favorite streamer due to your transparency and your incredible control even when variance isn't going your way. I'm mostly a cash game player but I can learn a lot from you when it comes to resolve and not feeling sorry for myself when variance doesn't go my way. Keep on grinding and I'll keep on watching you from Los Angeles. Good luck mate. 👍
Cheers Roy
From my experience, 200-300 buyins (abi) downswings are quite common, usually they happen 2 or 3 times a year. 5-600bi are rare, once every 2-3 years.
16% is too optimistic for your schedule, 10% is already really hard for abi166 with lots of turbo's.
there's a very detailed post pinned about how even at a 10% ROI, hell even at a breakeven 0% ROI, the size and timeframe (in games played) of his downswing makes this a once in a lifetime swing.
Thank you so much for making this video, I've been on a downswing for months and don't understand why
When I want to analyze how am I doing in tournaments I add some new parametres.
Ratio between starting chips and how much EV chips we made in tournament. Lets call it "Koefficient of succes" = "S"
For example: 30 k starting chips, 22.5k EV chips, S = 0.75
Then we can estimate average "S" during some period of time on good number of tournaments
And we can make "weighted S" by multiplying it by buyin (amount of dollars) = "wS"
And also look at it during some time
For example S = 0.75 Buy-in is 55, so "wS" = 41.75
Then we compare summary of total BI and summary of all "wS"
Maybe you will find that intersing, PAV
Best regards.
you are a boss PAV excellent player and excellent attitude facing this huge downswing i am confident as well that you'll get over it. glgl buddy
Thanks mate, appreciate it.
Great video as this inevitable fate will happen to all of us players at some point and perhaps multiple times. This is good to keep people grounded and understand this game we love can be brutal at times. You are the only streamer out there who is completely transparent about wins/ losses on a daily basis and I respect that. Keep at it buddy, you are gonna come through the other side a stronger player armed with thicker skin. Your true Twitch fans have your back. See ya on the next stream.
My last 8 live bullets have been either a two or three outter on the River or there was one flopped set over set, on one and a flopped flush over flush on another.
wah
Ahahhaaa who cares budd
Hey Pav, welcome to the bottom 0.03% of players. Glad you’ve joined us
Nice content. I'm curious as to the likelihood of your upswing earlier in the year given all the same information (abi/field size etc)? Would be cool to see a video of you talking about the stats on your upswing. Also, taking your whole year into account, it would be nice to see how you're running overall. For the year, with your huge upswing at the beginning included, I'm curious if your within 1 standard deviation of normal expectancy, or you're still way off in one direction or another due to variance?
Jan - June likelihood: gyazo.com/8bb0fadebb73415d74f6fd4a4eaef955
2019 average: gyazo.com/cc51943f080378558ddc79b985e82336
@All In PAV I just typed some comment above. I think 2019 average graph is more correct. You can not sample your distribution from an Upswing or a Downswing (referring to the high ROI rate in higher stakes). That would yield incorrect results. Hence you need a normal Gaussian distribution, which yields all the games in your upswings and downswings and sample from that to find your mean and standard deviation.
In your case, 2019 average shows a better explanation to all these. With 190 mean and 90k standard deviation. Then this explains what you are experiencing.
With these numbers, your first 4 months of upswing is almost close to the mean, your downswing is around -3 standard deviations. With the old numbers you were experiencing two very unlikely events in a very close time frame.
@@Neimos1 yes this is correct this video is fake news.
@Andrew Kagan I don’t think it is fake news. There is some downswing for sure with his ROI. It is nice of him to share with his community. The only thing is : It is not that unlikely to occur as in once in a life time event.
@@Neimos1 Yeah I shouldn't have used that word and I appreciate Pav being honest about his results. Most people try to hide them. Pads had a good thread on twitter recently how it's inevitable that a HSMTT reg will have a downswing equal to one year's EV. Is a good read: twitter.com/plenopads/status/1186301032944537600
Great vid! Very informative.
Also it would be interesting to look at Evbb/100 versus actual bb/100 for the last several month. Numbers and Graph. Maybe exclude early blinds or just make 0-40bb filter.
And on the upswing to compare
Thanks for being so open to us.
Hope Pav 'll see my comment :)
Can't track that on partypoker (no huds) and ACR doesn't track winrates on PT4 correctly. Go compare for yourself; it'll show you a completely different evbb/100 on ACR vs all your other sites. I also play very little volume on stars. evbb/100, although a fairly accurate stat for where your overall game is at, is not an accurate stat for your EV lost in tournaments. For example: You could be beasting the entire field at bb100/200/500/1k etc, but be getting super coolered at bb10k+ where the highest equity spots await.
does rounding down 1 $530, 3 $215s and 6 $109s to an avg 10 game sample not influence the variance? in an extremer example, let's say i play a $1K at breakeven and 9 $10s at 100% roi every 10 games. you could round that down to an avg stake of $109 at a total roi of 8.3%. but that'll forget the fact that you're dealing with the variance of playing $1Ks at breakeven.
maybe this problem was tackled already and I didn't notice, but it feels like the difference in stakes will influence the variance a decent bit, too
playing 9 $11s at 100% ROI and 1 1k at 0% ROI will yield very similar variance and results to playing 10 $109s at an ROI of 8.3%. Your 1k variance will be intense, but the profit from $11s will mitigate it a little bit. It'd look similar to being a slight winner in $109s at 8.3% ROI and dealing with those swings without having a cushion of 100% ROI at $11s.
@@christaborg86 hmm, interesting. doesn't necessarily feel right, but I have a pretty bad intuition for these things anyway. thanks for the response!
great post, very informative. Keep it up man!
I've only played 56 live tourneys over $100 and I'm over live tourneys (we both were when I met you in Vegas lol). I need to hit up NZ and play for a series there.
But these results - do they factor in tourney runners? Larger fields have way more variance involved. And if you're playing larger buy in events, then that also skews results further. I'd be interested to see the impact that has, if any, or if ROI is just what you use to do this.
Your style of play factors into this too at different stages.
I'd love to hear your insights on that. Laggy play makes for more top 3 finishes, but 'small ball'/tag play gets you more cashes. What does the number of runners do to that? You'd think it'd be smarter to play laggy when people play tight or against fields that overfold (happens more live than online tbh) in general (obviously other things factor in like stack sizes, bounties etc), and to play a bit more 'standard' elsewhere and take spots but this is more ideal for either large field tourneys and live tourneys where balancing isn't as important. In the standard games you play... you need to balance.
Hahaha I feel the same at 4:35
Can always rely on the Pavlova to post realistic and genuine videos. the dude is one of only a handful of guys i know that are brutally honest and dont talk shit...quite refreshing in the cesspool that is poker.
Friendly advice PAV!For me it doesn't matter the ABI, but it matters the Buyins of a unique day-session. I saw you playing 5k in a session.. Thats really huge!!
You should have a BRM at least 500K in order to not ever be broke! I am watching so many players and I realize how big is the variance in the game BUT! considering a really strong BRM for a pro should never pass the 1% of his BRM per session. Love your work! Thumbs up!
That's not how it works. If my abi was like 2k, then yes you'd be correct. But it's not. It's $180. Big difference. I'm spreading my investments across 22 MTTs a day.
@@ALLinPav you read really fast and you didn't get what I wanted to say. I mean , when you think of an ABI think it like a whole session.. I know sounds weird for you.but If you concentrate on playing that style I think you are going to be very very rich! It's a hard process to think "I will invest only 1% per session."
@@NikosZ That wouldn't make you any richer. You would make money slower and simply reduce the variance. My brm video is a good foundation for players if you want to watch it.
If you can play your A-game, playing so many tournaments and that works for you then it's fine! I have seen that BRM video but I think it applies only when you play 5 tournaments a day. If you have bigger volume then numbers change. Especially in online is 5× tougher than live games. A 500$ tournament in live is softer than an online 100$.
All the best brother. Best wishes from me.
you are an inspiration pav, keep it up
Isnt there only a 0.015% chancs instead of a 0.03% chance? cause there's a 0.03% chance of being outside of a 3rd stdev? Meaning it'd be a 1/200 year downswing?
Believing that Mike Postle is a god, seems more legit than believing that you are having 4 deviations downswing. That means, that those numbers you put in aren’t realistic at all
My post discusses this and runs through some simulations of if his ROI is much smaller then we used, and it still isnt pretty. Even at a 5% ROI, he is still above 3 deviations below the mean.
How can we estimate our ROI exactly?
So is this based off your overall "career" ROI?
looks like you did not adopt to online games after vegas
Well explained...enjoy the stream
If your in a 114k downswing then how come it says your up $36k for the year on the twitch stream?
I'm up 36k for the year but have been losing for the last 3.5months. This video is about how downswings and variance work, not if I'm up or down for the year.
Vamosssssssssss !!!!! Saludos from Chile and good luckk i am sure that you can make it!!
.It is a pity there is no Russian subtitles to Your videos. And in RUclips poorly quite translate.
You're average 10 sample tournaments I think were a bit off if you add in a lot of the 33, 44, 55 mtts across all sites. Regardless, you'll bounce out of this downswing.
we separated pav's games into 3 categories: $500 MTTs, $215-$320 MTTs, and $0-$109 MTTs. his 33/44/55 MTTs fall into that 3rd category.
Love the video and transparency so if I understand correctly you shouldn’t downswing for the next 97yrs. Seems reasonable
Well, not quite. This SPECIFIC downswing (3.5 months and -114k) should only happen every 90odd years, but as you can see in the stats there is a 14% chance of loss in his sample over 3.5 months, so honestly we should expect him to have a breakeven or losing stretch lasting longer then 3 months once every few years.
The abnormal part isnt the "down after 3.5 months of MTTs" part. It's the "down literally a fucking house after 3.5 months" part ;)
Chris Conley was a joke but yeah obviously that doesnt mean he never downswings ever again.
@@Stocky1 I don't think he remembered you as a mod. You can never be too careful with youtube comments xd
Is it an option to sell action on SK just to spread out the risk?
he might aswell play lower if he cant handle the variance
@@Hoetobeajew I don't need to spread the risk. I am financially stable and can afford these buy-ins.
Bro you are such a boss and hero for me hope to play with you one day life!
Nice mate. Anyone can reach the high stakes through a couple years of hard work. I really believe that.
You helped me a lot with your video about bankroll management ty
@@fat0v Welcome mate
Im on a 100$ downswing im so unlucky and my roi was -50% before that. Im not a trash player im just unlucky 4Head
how do you group your results from different sites on sharkscope?
Create it there: gyazo.com/56f0c5ae38953989853f179970a6f85a
If you pay for a monthly subscription on sharkscope you can do it by
groups
create new
choose graphs you want to merge
click consolidate
It was obvious that '' Party poker'' wasn't happy with your Vegas trip dude.
*partypoker
and true.
thanks for video mate !! love ur streams
Cheers mate
All this math assumes your ROI is accurate? How di dyou obtain these percentages?
All of that was explained in the video. We grouped the ABI from $0-$109, $109-$270 and $270+, gathered the ROI's, got the weighted averages and used those results. See Chris' pinned comment explaining more FAQ.
Senior to money or winning is ones ability to handle life and be honest with themselves.You seek to live with the truth and for that reason you are a winner period.All Hellmuths money in the world and people like him wish they had your happiness and your sense of self.They should seek to live with the truth like you as opposed to seeking to be admored etc.One more small thing,people like you always turn things around just a law of the universe.If you can have bad happening...like magic it dissapears.Cheers
I feel a big bink comin pav 👍
Eventually would be a safe bet!
@@ALLinPav haha defo but i mean real soon mate all the best
Im in a downswing of $80.
Seriously, i was curious, cause i was missin those ft's... :(
@Justin Ward its a joke nigga
@Justin Ward i am a funplayer yes.. and 80 down.
Not sure how many times I "ooofed" watching this. I probably only oof that much once every 97 years.
Doesn't this prove that online poker is not legit? If it were, wouldn't you have wins and losses; not just losses?
Yup. Never play online poker
Not even variance improbabilities that can happen once every 97 years can bust you Pav, you are a beast.
Stop spewing so much and you will be back shipping some 6 digits 😉
Postle’s attorney needs to use this. #anythingispossible
why not switch to live tourneys and see what happens there
WAYYY more variance.
Like most tournament pros will never hit 1700 tournaments played in their lifetime unless they're throwing multiple bullets and playing everything they can in the WSOP and avoid downswinging in that whole time.
@@NikhilAutar I would disagree there is more variance in live tournies. In terms of duration (staying in the downswing), yes, you'll be in a downswing farrrrr longer. But in terms of games played, it won't be as bad due to your higher ROI%.
@@ALLinPav you're right. I did mean over time.
Still; I don't think many people are making 1000 tourneys in less than 5 years.
What would an average roi be on a live tourney assuming 10% rake standards. Any solid figures on what they are for higher stakes with less rake?
I don't think these numbers exist
How much do you make from your party poker sponsorship?
7
You know I beat variance I got a career I been on a heater ever since then
Yeah you’re definitely on blow lol
Your Calculations of ROI are incorrect. You assume that your ROI is the same during an upswing and downswing. They are clearly not for one specific reason:
During a downswing you have a lot more reentries into tournaments. When you enter a tournament at the beginning you start with an average stack so your expected ROI higher than when you reenter the tournament, when you may have less than 1/2 average stack. Your expected ROI in a tournament when having 1/2 average stack is substantially lower than being average stack.
The process of reentering tourneys, just in the pure math reduces your ROI and during a downswing you reenter a lot more; therefore feeding the downswing as your playing a lot of entries with much lower ROI if any ROI at all.
Not really sure where to go with this because it's kind of all over the place. But your ROI is your ROI, it's the lifetime return on your investment, upswings downswings etc all included, im not sure why you think actual EV shrinks during a downswing and grows during an upswing, because it doesnt. What changes is if you are running below or above said EV.
Не сомневаюсь, что видео очень информативно, надо подтянуть английский...
“Not playing the victim” looks like victim in the thumbnail 👍🏻👌🏼
I understand 0% of what that dude talks about. But i should never play poker again if you have a 3 months downswing. If i would play poker every dau and loose for 3 months i shoul sell myself on pieces and the toe remaining would still be bankrupt. Please tell me that over all you are a wining poker player. Good luck!!
If you watch the video, it answers your question. Thanks for watching mate!
Well at least you know if you repeat this downswing ever again its time to quit poker.
Nope
Bullshit math.. Taking only the bad run 3 months into consideration... why not take the hall sample lel? Gives people the false impression that he's the most unlucky player in the world which is far from it, actually probably still a luckbox. Cheers
I don't think anyone who watched the video got that impression. We took the whole year into considering mate. Watch the video again and listen to the weighted averages.
Math is fun and all - but it's obvious that you were cursed in Vegas and you need to go back and retrieve your soul before you can expect to win again. Sorry mate. Best of luck.
Though luck
LOL
Thanks for watching Jonathan!
@@ALLinPav no problem buddy, variance it's incredible right? Have You expirienced upswings like this or close? What's the highest standard deviation on an upswing you have expirienced?
Wow I had no idea you had been losing, I thought you were always winning tournaments!
Hopefully you get some massive jar jah binks to continue on your statistical anomaly but in the opposite direction! Good luck!
Tough to post losing highlights! Cheers mate, appreciate it!