This is an Opportunity that Won't Come Again...
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- Опубликовано: 16 апр 2024
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Real unemployment is skyrocketing per your own previous videos and charts. For example: "Permanent Job Losses Have Accelerated" "60% + US Metropolitan Areas With Rising Unemployment" "Philly Fed: State Coincident Index".
Also, I've studied every significant yield curve inversion in recorded history, and they all coincide with rate cuts. For the post-Volker Fed, they've also coincided with market indexes dropping, because the Fed dropped rates early before those recessions. For the Volker Fed, and pre-Volker Fed the un-inversion didn't happen until after the recession started. That's because the Volker Fed wasn't dropping the rates until the recession was already underway.
Current economic conditions match the '70s better than the '00s. The Fed's emphasis on curing inflation matches 1973 better than it matches 2008. Also, look at what gold is doing. That technical indicator is a better match for 1973 than 2008.
Love your videos, keep up the good work. I only disagree on very minor details.
I see a pullback and not a panic selling atmosphere. I do speculate that the market will crash but not until a rate cut happens. Why then, because the cut will happen because of the Fed breaking something and not the soft landing the market is expecting.
A couple rate cuts would not necessarily indicate a problem. If they start cutting between meetings or 50 points at a time, then yeah.
100% right
Normally, however consider the 70s in which a second wave of inflation forced the FED to raise rates again, and the market sold off steeply as they did so.
what gives you the hint if it were a panic selling atmosphere?
Exactly 👌🏻
Stagflation creates deeper recessions
Key date is May 3rd when U6 unemployment comes out (last month was a cycle-high 7.3%) and also the Sahm recession indicator (last month was 0.30 just below the cycle high of last Oct. of 0.33). If U6 unemployment prints higher than 7.3% and the Sahm indicator prints 0.40 or higher, we are already in recession.
We're in the second, maybe the third inning of this business cycle contraction. I agree that right now the correction looks sentiment/technicals driven. The actual macro-driven contraction still seems some quarters off. When you first see initial claims tick above 300k, that's when the real correction is going to be underway. Remember, 40% of the Russell 2000 had negative earnings in 2023. All or virtually all of those companies have a significant fraction of their balance sheet debt borrowed before 2022, when rates were 1/2 to 1/3 of what they are now. I can guarantee you that those companies are going to be doing more layoffs, and quite a few will go bankrupt as those debts come due and accomodative rates are nowhere in sight.
Thanks for that information!
Just in these last 3 days I've seen so many big companies lay-off many employees
We are at the end of an expansion cycle. I think the Fed will have to cut rates even as inflation likely rises at the end of this year, at which point we will see a massive stock market crash.
Thank you! Can you do some more stock technical analysis video ? ❤
I think you’re wrong but that’s what makes a market.
Stagflation - not a recession ... I don't you guys are looking in the right place
Stagflations precede recessions
Stagflation is high inflation and high unemployment. We are at historically low unemployment. And if unemployment rises from here then inflation is likely to cool rapidly. There is no evidence yet of stagflation though it could be a threat in 12 months
Look up your ass buddy
This guy gets it.
... I don't-drops a turd in the ol'bucket-you guys...
Great stuff!
we are overdue for a 7-10% correction
eh probably not that deep, there is still probably much m2 still sloshing around and needs a home while risk of inflation increases. the s&p 500 still generates more and more cash flow that you can't make up with bond yields. The institutions have paused buying equities to shake out retail investors and then will continue, it's a similar story as always but never quite the same. institutions make money when uninformed investors sell their shares at a discount and then later the institutions use their media connections to get retail to chase prices up again. Retail are the least informed and most easily manipulated. When everyone is crowding around the same moves, its best to look for reasons to do the opposite.
I has thinking 15 to 20
I'd argue more if you're using shiller pe chart as a gauge.
Thoughts on buying silver? Seems undervalued. Might be a nice store of value until there's a good entry point on stocks.
Problem with comparing current data to history data is that current data seem more manipulated to meet political requirements e.g. seasonal ajusted gas prices, employment data. Also the reaction of the market is heavily different due to IT and private investors
Crash time
So in other words, buy the f dip?
The Fed has not been clear about keeping rates high for a while. Two weeks ago they were saying there would be three rate cuts this year.
They won’t it seems. They ain’t cutting in June as CPI is still red hot and they won’t cut afterwards as they don’t want to influence the election.
Jawboning the market in an election year, no cuts until 25
That's because there are forces above the fed that are forcing the fed to keep a bullish (removed) mindset.
Nice short straight to the point video.
Who knows really what markets will do...cheers!
Compare the rate of employed foreigners with the rate of unemployed Americans. This data is still confusing the scenario and making analysis very difficult. Foreign workers rarely increase pressure for wage increases and consequently, inflation.
Just because you started buying dips doesn't mean that SPY is in the correction phase
looks to me like the fed chases the 2y and the 10y IMO
Nasdaq at 17.7k - I thought it would be pulling back at 15k, but PE of 23 AVERAGE seems ok
Just incredulous. A few dollar oil increase drives the markets just stratospheric add a quarter point decrease with it and the market will double. Again incredulous.
Oil spike will not affect some countries as much as in the past
housing needs a 75% correction. piece of shit old houses in desireable areas are worth 1 million right now its a joke. these should be 250k houses. very old small 1 story home. like in San Jose CA
😂😂😂
75% correction?!!
😂😂😂
Take your medicine.
Did you ever have listen talk about offert / demand?
Listen de demand for houses is in this moment 5 times higher than the market has to offer.
So tell me, how the hell you want a correction of 75%?!!
Do beter your research.
Hahahaha yeah Like any other correction in History - once in a lifetime! Unless you invent a time machine 😂😂😂
I'm ready to fight! Ready to fight the market!
Wait, what opportunity won’t come again exactly? Click bait…
buy the dip
There can only be a shuffling of jobs, maybe people moving (and filling) lower wage jobs as some higher wage employees are laid off. The demographic situation makes a spike in unemployment almost impossible.
[0:46] Is he looking at the same chart that is on the screen? The NAAIM Exposure Index appears to only have a few random correlations, lots of miscues, and at best is off by several weeks. He even skipped a couple of high levels on the chart that are counter to his point (early '18 & late '20). I could close my eyes and point to a dozen random spots on that chart and produce a similar result.
look at corporate bankruptcies and you can forecast jobs.
🔥👍
I would say oil was driven by the EU ruling that oil is at fault for climate change.
But that might be priced in at this point.
Iran is theater.
I'm in agreement with you in that this is a short term pullback. not the market collapse. I'm still leaning on the august september crash.
Interestingly bond rates are not rising. Lol they have been falling all day.
Top was in March, market will crash due to stagflationary pressures.
The labor market is a lie counting hugh rise in part time workers at low wages.
Won’t crash hard in an election year
My man, if inflation reaccelerates, markets will come down, not up.
Why?! Because it will take longer to get rate cuts. Remember it was the markets thinking we will get rate cuts that drove the markets up.
You seem confused
It’s completely overvalued as it is - it’s insanity
Sorry but I don’t think this is a bullish set up at all
One of the most inaccurate accounts I’ve seen. Follow this guy for good fades
Stocks it’s not economy… they will go down
Wrong . US is in inflationary depression.
Mic game all over the place
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 33.34 -0.19 (-0.58%)
4:00 PM EDT, Wed Apr 17
Mean: 17.11
Median: 15.98
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999)
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.
Pull back to 4600 on sp500 by 5/3/24
Middle East is a big what if on all scenarios.
So what are people doing next week of 4/22? Is this a one or two week or 3 week drop? The market was due for a decline after months of crazy gains. The S&P is only below it's 50 day for 2 weeks not exactly a crash yet. I say give it another week. I doubt Israel attacking Iran would move the market that much. It's more market fatigue from rising so fast.
Let's all pray the SPY gets to at least 600 even higher would be better. The higher it goes the better prices Iam getting on all my shorts. You all buy the dips. I will just keep selling the rips. Could I be wrong. Of course but what if I am not? My short postition is so huge it would make most peoples head spin. And it is just getting bigger and bigger the higher and higher we go.
If you wait for unemployment to rise then you have already missed the crash. When unemployment is rising is when you should be buying - investors have been conditioned to BTFD so much that a big crash is going to wipe out a lot of greedy folks catching knives. Maybe even playing games with trades.
I mean, Israel already decided to respond, which should escalate tensions further and/or start a war. Oil prices would skyrocket with Strait of Hormuz closed. Too high risk for me to buy this dip, unless the middle east calms down a bit
I'm not even in a position in my life to even begin to think about any opportunities bro. The opportunity is only for them who have a foundation under them with no worries about money. Watching your videos with the life I have, means nothing. It's just a fairy tale i dream about when I'm sleeping. When I wake up, I realize I'm still alive and have to keep living in this worthless useless life.
Dude said nothing 😂😂😂
Clickbait.
Be ready to live with high inflation and robust economy
The stock market is not edging (genz pun intended) a recession, investors are with their speculation. Like I've said before, and I'm no economist, but human psychology is a large part of it. In a recession the rich and prepared get richer. Everyone wants to be the next Micheal Burry.
Tesla will be fine. Robot everything
TSLA peaked last July...
Tesla is 100% toast. You will buy it much much lower.
First baby
Lame
We is doomed...
Tesla going to $40. Then $14.. Elon lost his mind...
I’ll buy a few shares at those prices
I will buying Tesla at $40 so😍😍😍😍 opportunities like that it is not ease to find. Enjoy it
@@BatmanBossme too. I'd buy a lot of tesla if it got cheap.
$400*
@@BatmanBossI don't believe you have the balls to buy TSLA if it suddenly drops to $40 or $14
With all due respect no one knows when this house of cards will collapse. Personally, I think we have topped and we will crash with home prices correcting and unemployment going up dramatically
Too much supply of bonds to be absorbed.
If…if…if….