What did he get wrong, almost everything fits, for his 2010 prediction, he mentioned wearables and that's what we have right now, from Google Glass to Apple watches. GG didn't work because of bad execution. But smartphones today are almost wearable, you don't walk out of your house without it. Ever. Things would happen much more faster if you could actually work on the future you want instead of waiting for it to come to you.
The only thing he was wrong about was that computers would 'disappear' and that we wouldn't be carrying it around in our hands. Everything else he said for ~10 years has come to pass: computers embedded in clothing, images written directly to our retina, extremely high bandwidth connections, virtual reality. Then his 2020 prediction for human level AI he's now corrected and said is actually 2029.
Man 2020 seems so futuristic in 2000 I don't remember thinking about it but I think I would e expected more than this. I mean he was only off bubs few years as far as VR and wearable technology go although they are still pretty new
@DAG Which is something he has emphasized many times. You can't predict the actually winners of the market, you can only model the parameters of the market.
I am still waiting to be able to see, hear and touch for example a Pokémon in virtual reality like it really existed. By 2019 it should be already possible, according to Kurzweil's old books and interviews. Maybe in 2029. Smartphones have come a long way since Nokia 7190 in 1999.
@2:08: We are 18 years ahead and what he said will be achieved in 10 years hasn't happened yet. He seems to have pushed back his 2009 to 2019 but doesn't seem to happen in 2019 either. Maybe he would have to push those back 10 years more. Hopefully by 2029 we will not carry rectangular boxes and everything will be inside clothes and lenses @3:05: he has pushed this back to 2029 already. @4:01: The 1000 times power of brain has also been pushed back to 2045 in his next book.
Glasses and contact lenses that will replace smartphones are kind of appearing now, I think they will probably have replaced phones completely by 2029 since they are more practical and can handle more control complexity than even using a keyboard and mouse since they can be used in 3 dimeonsion rather than a flat screen.
ishan dutta I think it’s reasonable to predict that it will happen eventually. But it’s really difficult to make a time predictions. If we lived 100 years ago you could maybe predict the world 25 years later, but since progress is moving faster everyday, the modern timeframe of 25 years deviates too much based on what happens from year to year to make a reasonable estimate. One year’s progress could swing an estimate from 10 years to a 1000, and the other way around.
@@kakam458 I am not saying being off is a bad thing, indeed he has courage to predict which others don't, what my point is, he is more often than not off by a decade ahead for some early adoption and not the other way round(and probably two decades ahead for the technology to become ubiquitous) which actually makes his being off very much predictable. This makes me predict that whatever his vision for 2045 will actually start by 2055 and become ubiquitous by 2065.
Ouch. Big supporter of Ray but he was a little off on this prediction and sadly is saying the same thing about the next few years
He went out this year admiting how he missed on the timing of this prediction.
What did he get wrong, almost everything fits, for his 2010 prediction, he mentioned wearables and that's what we have right now, from Google Glass to Apple watches. GG didn't work because of bad execution. But smartphones today are almost wearable, you don't walk out of your house without it. Ever.
Things would happen much more faster if you could actually work on the future you want instead of waiting for it to come to you.
Hansen Nansen could you link me that? Big Ray fan!
The only thing he was wrong about was that computers would 'disappear' and that we wouldn't be carrying it around in our hands. Everything else he said for ~10 years has come to pass: computers embedded in clothing, images written directly to our retina, extremely high bandwidth connections, virtual reality. Then his 2020 prediction for human level AI he's now corrected and said is actually 2029.
Yup 2017 and my 1000 comp is not great
Man 2020 seems so futuristic in 2000 I don't remember thinking about it but I think I would e expected more than this. I mean he was only off bubs few years as far as VR and wearable technology go although they are still pretty new
We have the powerful for fully car automation, but people and big companies don't get it. Have you ever tried VR Chat?
2021 anyone? ;)
Predictions for 2010 were way off. Never seen him be so blatantly wrong.
he wasnt wrong about the prediction, we could do these things people just dont want them.
@DAG Which is something he has emphasized many times. You can't predict the actually winners of the market, you can only model the parameters of the market.
I am still waiting to be able to see, hear and touch for example a Pokémon in virtual reality like it really existed. By 2019 it should be already possible, according to Kurzweil's old books and interviews. Maybe in 2029. Smartphones have come a long way since Nokia 7190 in 1999.
2018 and.......
Fantástico ! .... Parece Fantasia ! ...
@2:08: We are 18 years ahead and what he said will be achieved in 10 years hasn't happened yet. He seems to have pushed back his 2009 to 2019 but doesn't seem to happen in 2019 either. Maybe he would have to push those back 10 years more. Hopefully by 2029 we will not carry rectangular boxes and everything will be inside clothes and lenses
@3:05: he has pushed this back to 2029 already.
@4:01: The 1000 times power of brain has also been pushed back to 2045 in his next book.
Glasses and contact lenses that will replace smartphones are kind of appearing now, I think they will probably have replaced phones completely by 2029 since they are more practical and can handle more control complexity than even using a keyboard and mouse since they can be used in 3 dimeonsion rather than a flat screen.
@@kakam458 and similarly the 2045 prediction will also get pushed back by 20 years in due course of time is what my gut feeling says.
ishan dutta I think it’s reasonable to predict that it will happen eventually. But it’s really difficult to make a time predictions. If we lived 100 years ago you could maybe predict the world 25 years later, but since progress is moving faster everyday, the modern timeframe of 25 years deviates too much based on what happens from year to year to make a reasonable estimate. One year’s progress could swing an estimate from 10 years to a 1000, and the other way around.
@@kakam458 I am not saying being off is a bad thing, indeed he has courage to predict which others don't, what my point is, he is more often than not off by a decade ahead for some early adoption and not the other way round(and probably two decades ahead for the technology to become ubiquitous) which actually makes his being off very much predictable. This makes me predict that whatever his vision for 2045 will actually start by 2055 and become ubiquitous by 2065.
thanks
What program is this from? Doing research for my dissertation, would appreciate it.
This guy is way off in some of his predictions….