"Election Night Analysis: Art or Science" - Antony Green (LCA 2022 Online)

(Antony Green) Controversy arose in the 2020 US Presidential election over the media ‘calling’ election results. This despite such calls being normal practice in the past, and overlooking that electoral authorities themselves do not finalise election counts on the night. In the absence of official winners, the media and other count observers model and call results based on established past trends.
Due to preferential voting, and very liberal rules on postal and absent voting, it takes even longer to finalise election results in Australia. It is one to two weeks before any individual contests are declared by the Electoral Commission, three weeks before the final lower house contests are declared, and up to six weeks before we have official winner in the Senate.
Ahead of the 2022 Federal election, respected ABC Election Analyst Antony Green will explain the statistical processes used to call Australian elections. What is the available data, what assumptions are made to predict results, and how is the Australian process more robust than in the United States?
lca2022.linux....
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Sat Jan 15 18:45:00 2022 at Kaya Theatre