The Spring Real Estate Market Is A Bust | Phoenix Real Estate Market Update
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- Опубликовано: 22 апр 2024
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The spring real estate market is a bust. Mortgage rates are climbing and so are prices. The anticipated "busy" spring market is not proving to be so busy. What's most affected? Sales volumes. Something has to give in this market, will it be prices or rates?
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This housing market is super discouraging. Might have to give up and move out of Az
It's expensive everywhere. In Florida, prices and demand is ridiculous. You don't pay income tax, but property tax and homeowners insurance is very expensive.
One of the more interesting things of the real estate market is how so many markets have been acting the same. Don't know why you're discouraged. If you want lower prices there are 1000's of homes in middle US that can be had for less than $50k, many under $10k.
The fed's long term manipulation of rates has wreaked havoc in the real estate market. Historically, there is nothing that high about existing rates, but artificially low rates has caused prices to increase to ridiculous levels and frozen the market because no one wants to lose their low rates and owners are "invested" in home values that buyers can't afford. Undoubtedly, the fed will eventually try to "fix" the problem with yet more rate manipulation.
Exactly. Thanks for sharing!
The Fed's modern statutory mandate (1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act) is to promote maximum employment and stable prices. But "prices" doesn't include real estate which the Fed considers a capital investment. Same with stock prices. By law the Fed is prohibited from focusing on real estate prices. Rent on the other hand is a price the Fed is mandated to keep stable (2% up per year max). That's why the Fed only considers "equivalent rent" for homeowners, not current sale value.
But yes the Fed changing of rates does effect real estate...and all other capital investing. That's what it's suppose to do. If it had kept rate up in 2020-22 there could have been a serious recession. If it had kept rates near 0% in 2022-24 it's likely home prices would be much higher today.
You may not like the Fed handling of rates but the Fed doesn't have a mandate to keep markalpert5428 happy.
@@waterbug1135 It isn't about keeping me happy. It is about the unintended consequences of the goals the Fed is trying to reach, which are usually worse than the impact of a short term downturn they seek to avoid. The prices of homes (and other assets) have little relationship to their intrinsic value/income levels necessary to afford them. Of course, it also contributes to inflation. Watch what happens to those investments when they have to re-finance in this environment. I have to be amused at the self-confidence of would-be regulators like yourself who seem oblivious to the consequences of massive mal-investment.
We need more than hope, we need someone (in office) to change interest rates. Otherwise, we are stuck, stuck.
The main takeaway is sales volume remains at 1995 levels in 2024. You can’t have price discovery until you have normal sales volume. I don’t think anyone really knows what their home is worth. In Utah I’m watching houses sit on the market for 90 days when two years ago they would have sold in a weekend. Higher for longer!
Markets change. Agents and many people have a serious problem understanding, accepting change. It's very likely the sales volume of the past 2-4 years will continue for the next 10 years or more. It's the low inventory dynamic. There are many factor pushing against higher inventory. We've seen this in other countries for decades. Maybe it's our turn.
Do you recommend Avondale? Alamar
That growth is crazy! It is not sustainable because the median home sales are coming from the net sales of 700k+ house. The housing market will just keep cooling till the majority of people can afford to get one. Renting right now is the best option or staying put.
Hey Catlin, I've recently worked on re-editing one of your videos. I've been trying to connect with you for so long but not getting any response from your end. Could you please let me know how I can send it to you? I'd love to share it with you to get your feedback. Thank you!
i'm sorry only a greedy real estate agent wants interest rates to fall. Interest rates should RISE and force home prices to fall !! Interest rates don't mean anything..HOME PRICES are what people should care about. never trust a real estate agent who focuses on low rates instead of low prices
Yeah, but it's not their fault. They get paid more if a house sells for more. It's not the way it should work, but that's the goofy system the US uses.
They are definitely greedy, not one will tell you this is the worst time to buy, they just need a check.
Why 100% focus on buyers agents. Don’t they also make money when they are a seller’s agent.
Sellers and buyers don't have to use an agent. I don't. You can list in Phoenix for $199. Pro pics $139. I skip the sign and lockbox. When buying off the MLS I call the listing agent directly to see the property if I even need to see it. I ask for the buyer agent commission (2.5-3%) back at close and every listing agent I've worked with (maybe 20 in CA, NY & AZ) have been happy to kick that commission back. In most listing contracts states something like 3% goes to anyone bringing the buyer. Doesn't have to be a licensed agent/broker. So is it "greedy agents" or "lazy sellers/buyers"? Is Starbucks "greedy" for offering $6 coffees? Or are customers just too lazy to make their own coffee? Or drink water instead?
No idea why you would think home prices would fall if interest rates increase. I assume you're just hoping. If you look at history you'll see home prices increase as rates increase. It's been very rare (2010-11) when rates went up and prices went down. There's different reasons for this, but mainly because rates and prices aren't connected. 30-40% of homes are bought without a mortgage.
Home prices are what people care about that don't know finance. Prices can drop but if rates are this high youll pay much more for the home. If rates dont eventually come down, people with low rates will just hold and not trade. I agree rates need to stay higher for inflation to get lower but prices of homes wont come down until people sell.
What’s sad is builders are and will start building smaller homes and people will still buy them at premium prices. Even with the buy downs it’s a loosing transaction. When things recover, and they will years down the road, will they maintain there value over larger floor plans that are more conveniently located 🤷♂️
There are buyers for every price point and size of home.
And at 7.4%, far less I suspect Marcia…
@@patmagic3301 that rate will probably change a bit lower in the future and prices will just move higher because there's souch pent up demand.
Correct, but this isn't new. 20-40% of a home's value is the lot size. That's been shrinking for decades. In other countries the first thing a buy looks at is the lot size. In the US buyers only look at the house size because land has been so cheap in the US. SFH have kept getting bigger, but that's only a segment of the "home" market. Condos, patio homes, etc... are being built too which are smaller than SFHs. I'm not sure there's a market any more for the old Levittown model. There is less and less land available to build SFH developments. You can build 1000's of SFH 40, 100 miles out from central Phoenix but that doesn't effect buyers who want to live close to city amenities and have the means to bid up to get what they want.
Certainly cash is king but if we’re talking means and location I’d assume other than emergency crisis sales, those with large lot properties and ideal locations are staying put with their 3% or sub mortgages (or no mortgage at all). Yeah, everything is relative though. I live in Thailand half the year where homes don’t appreciate anywhere near the rate they do in the U.S. We did a 60k renovation to a 30k home for comfort and location. We’ll never see that equity in our lifetime but we don’t care.
My point is, there’s not enough inventory of existing homes with convenient commutes i.e. drive until you qualify and the builder can offer a buy down. That’s the reality for first timers when rates are 7.4% on a 30 year 🤷♂️. Rates will never be 3% ever again, mark my word but, the fact that they were disrupted and unbalanced the system for many years to come.
I sold nine homes in pa in 2021 was going to buy in phoenix west valley sitting on the sideline 5% in cds why buy a overpriced home and problems paid my capital gains and banked the rest not like the good old days
Median sales price is the most manipulated, disingenuous data point used in the real estate market and Caitlin highlights precisely why. Sales volume is literally down almost 40% (can't tell the top data point year graph) and it's also stated that the luxury market has not been impacted (sales volume nor price, with price actually increasing). This implies that a larger percentage of homes that are transacted monthly are luxury homes, which is skewing median sales price. The data is clearly showing that there are FAR fewer home buyers entering the market at the low income/medium parts of the market. The people who ARE entering the market are either 1) luxury buyers 2) cash buyers or 3) suckers buying at the absolute worst time in the history of real estate to buy a house as measured by home affordability. Anyone who is telling you to buy right now is selling you FOMO and cleary has a stake in the real estate market rebounding.
Great point about luxury - that is very true.
Please show inventory charts
Will do!
🎉🎉🎉🎉
One thing is for sure. We need to change things in November 5th elections or it will stay the same!!
Will I ever be able to move from Seattle and Buy in Phoenix in the next year or two
People are still buying houses. Just buy what you can actually afford. Are you waiting for prices to go down? Interest rates to go down? Prices are stable because there's very little inventory..if rates go down, prices will just go up even more. Should have bought already if you wanted to make a move. People aren't going to do better by waiting unless your income is going up dramatically.
Don't believe the "very little inventory" for Phoenix. Maricopa County's inventory is skyrocketing. Like the last crash that took 5-6 years to bottom out, this one will too. So wait, if you can survive long enough in Seattle. This will take a while, even here.
@@BPoweredLove thank you for your input, much appreciated
@@BPoweredLove you're dreaming
@@marciamakoviecki3295 😂🤡 You don't need to believe me. You have access to Zillow, Redfin, other online data aggregators to verify yourself before embarrassing yourself with a goofy reply.
I was in the industry from 2003 - 2010 and saw how it all played out in Phoenix then and am seeing it again. The only difference now is that it is MUCH easier to see this time.
Agents are so fixated on "normal" they just can't deal with change. It's pretty funny. This is why agent love to say "insane", "crazy" because to them when the market doesn't act like the past they feel like their world has ended. It's because agents only ever use old data. Unlike investors who use forward looking signs in addition to old data.
Everyone should boycott the housing market and buy a camper trailer.
Then eventually house prices will fall again
ARIZONA have REALLY GOOD REVIEWS ON THERE MORGANTOWN.
🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜🏜
BUT ......
A TIGER is a TIGER ⏭
A HOMEBUILDER is HOMEBUILDER
.
ARIZONA HAVE to decide DO YOU NEED TO SELL?
OR....?
SELLERS NEED TO FOCUS ON MAKE SURE ON GREATER SELL PRICES.
POLICE ARE STUIPED.
THERE DEFUNDED ANYWAY.
THUGS AND GAYS ARE DEFUNDING
THE JUSTICE SYSTEM ANYWAY.
I'LL