Every time someone mentions inflation as a potential issue in a recovery I am reminded of the definition of too much money chasing too few goods. This was true in the last century when consumers shared more equally in the gains during recovery. With almost all income growth in the last three recoveries going to the top 10% of earners, it effectively prevents consumer price inflation. The model does go a long way to explain the resilience of the bull market, however. The "too much money" problem is totally focused on equities now.
The GDP is always such a mixed and always evolving basket of goods. We could say that business making plastic sneeze screens and other PPE’s are going to fly for a few months at least. Telecommuting gear has got to be flying off the Amazon vans. Some one has got to be paying all those Dr’s and Nurses. I am wondering who will be renting all those hotel rooms and offices that everyone is telecommuting to and from. That excess supply is certainly an over hang to be absorbed. There is the shortfall in local tax revenue from transient occupancy and restaurants sales tax. We may need to reverse the transient tax to bribe tourists to take a risk.
It would be easier to make predictions if the major businesses in each state (manufacturing, farming, finance, food processing, transportation, etc.) were classified as either work at home, service with 6 foot separation or close grouped. Then map all the big businesses by state and determine whether the state is following the medical guidelines put out by the Trump administration or not. This results in three outcomes. States following the guidelines will not have large out breaks. We can anticipate larger outbreaks in those states not following the guidelines. Since Trump has put the responsibility on individual states, he will not shut down the whole nation again, but will deal with each outbreak state by state. This will determine if a state is a W or a Nike swoop. The third result is if we have a massive second outbreak large enough to shut everything down again.
How Paul Krugman remains relevant to anyone but himself is amazing. He is an utterly incompetent economist and is wrong far more than he is right. How about we live in a free country and the individual can weigh their own risk while professionals promote hygine. Washing hands and social distancing. These are terms we can all agree with.
He’s taught at Princeton and MIT, has written university textbooks in economics, and has won the nobel prize in economics. I’d say he’s worth at least listening to.
@@TonyTrupp that's funny. If you wrong on all your economic advice but taught at prestige schools your still worth listening too. Nevermind being wrong all the time. Just goes to show you that only educated people are this dumb.
I wish the guy (a) had less compression on the audio, (b) used higher volume, and (c) didn't rock back and forth in front of the microphone.
The best Princeton BCF seminar so far.
Every time someone mentions inflation as a potential issue in a recovery I am reminded of the definition of too much money chasing too few goods. This was true in the last century when consumers shared more equally in the gains during recovery. With almost all income growth in the last three recoveries going to the top 10% of earners, it effectively prevents consumer price inflation. The model does go a long way to explain the resilience of the bull market, however. The "too much money" problem is totally focused on equities now.
The GDP is always such a mixed and always evolving basket of goods. We could say that business making plastic sneeze screens and other PPE’s are going to fly for a few months at least. Telecommuting gear has got to be flying off the Amazon vans. Some one has got to be paying all those Dr’s and Nurses.
I am wondering who will be renting all those hotel rooms and offices that everyone is telecommuting to and from. That excess supply is certainly an over hang to be absorbed. There is the shortfall in local tax revenue from transient occupancy and restaurants sales tax. We may need to reverse the transient tax to bribe tourists to take a risk.
It would be easier to make predictions if the major businesses in each state (manufacturing, farming, finance, food processing, transportation, etc.) were classified as either work at home, service with 6 foot separation or close grouped. Then map all the big businesses by state and determine whether the state is following the medical guidelines put out by the Trump administration or not. This results in three outcomes. States following the guidelines will not have large out breaks. We can anticipate larger outbreaks in those states not following the guidelines. Since Trump has put the responsibility on individual states, he will not shut down the whole nation again, but will deal with each outbreak state by state. This will determine if a state is a W or a Nike swoop. The third result is if we have a massive second outbreak large enough to shut everything down again.
Marcus' Intro shows 22 speaker. 3 women maybe only 1 black. It seems a very outdated picture of Princeton programs and values.
I don't believe this kind of comments has a place here. We discuss ideas and we are in a meritocratic place.
How Paul Krugman remains relevant to anyone but himself is amazing. He is an utterly incompetent economist and is wrong far more than he is right.
How about we live in a free country and the individual can weigh their own risk while professionals promote hygine. Washing hands and social distancing.
These are terms we can all agree with.
He’s taught at Princeton and MIT, has written university textbooks in economics, and has won the nobel prize in economics. I’d say he’s worth at least listening to.
@@TonyTrupp that's funny. If you wrong on all your economic advice but taught at prestige schools your still worth listening too. Nevermind being wrong all the time. Just goes to show you that only educated people are this dumb.