For everyone saying that this is boring and that he's not entertaining enough, keep in mind that you're not putting in effort to understand what he's saying. You're hoping that system 1, the sensational, intuitive side will kick in so you don't have to think; rather, you'd like to be entertained. I've noticed this with animated videos, powerful public speakers, etc. They do all of the thinking for you, and you just absorb a barrage of information like a sponge. Whereas books, and simple videos like this force our rational and deliberate System 2 thinking to activate. Simple videos like this force us to do the learning ourselves.
So true. Just try having a conversation with a nuclear engineer about... basically anything. You may believe you have an accurate description of something until you speak with them and find out they have a more pinpoint description, which they will offer up without prompting. On the other hand, they can't pick out a good looking tie to save their life, nor can they explain why it looks good, or bad for that matter. This is, of course, a sweeping generalization regarding engineers, for whom I have the utmost respect.
I am the latter , and I believe that I can learn about certain things which I don’t yet completely understand, and once I completely understand it , I can explain it .
I think smart people just know the distinction between what is "percieved" as "the obvious", while smart people look at the obvious, and distinguish how irregular it actually is.
"It's not a case of: 'Read this book and then you'll think differently. I've written this book, and I don't think differently." - Daniel Kahneman My favorite quote of his that encapsulates perfectly what he is saying.
@@stacknsat It is discouraging if you read the book with the expectation that there is a "fix" for what he is describing. It refers to the power of the type 1 thinking that rules our quick reactions. There is no quick fix, only a recognition of the power and when to slow things down to move to type 2 thinking.
Crypto Cliff notes I would call it awareness, and I think that is what he was getting at too. For example, You may still think that people who like the color yellow are idiots, but now that you are aware that is a system 1 reaction, you can slow your thinking down and move to a more rational place in your thinking.
@@alexfloate2420 Awareness is probably a better word for consciousness ....but in the end we are saying the same thing. If they are now aware they maybe able to slow down and switch systems. Hence thinking differently than what they were doing prior.
It is so refreshing to hear a public intellectual say, "I don't know." I can't imagine other Nobel Laureates in Economics (think Stiglitz, Krugman, Merton Miller) demonstrating such humility.
@@APeeKay That's another pretty good litmus, too. But taking a second look at Maboyd's post, above, it seems to me he's wrong about at least Krugman and Miller. Krugman was famously fast to call himself wrong on the Trump Bump and his last ten years have been a pretty constant process of self-reflection mixed in with his evaluation of others. 'Course Krugman has it easy: he isn't wrong very often. Miller is a slightly different case: it's a bit silly to say he won't admit to being wrong when his entire career is considering degrees of rightness/wrongness. Stiglitz? Does Maboyd have an actual factual case?
@tech four9 That's a pretty strange theory, Tech. Why does your common fucking idiot feels any desperate need for justification for their stupid beliefs? And why would they go looking for premiere intellectuals for that rationalization? Wouldn't the next common fucking idiot over be more trustworthy to them? Just askin' 😎
@@quaintgamestudio6149 As per the talk, when you see someone talk and present an idea or an argument confidently you are much more likely to believe that what that person is saying is true. This is because your system 1 is unconsciously making a connection between confidence and accuracy/correctness of the idea. Whereas when some present an argument hesitantly or without confidence you are less likely to trust it even if it has some solid research backing it up and is much more accurate. Hence the above quote: "Confidence is not a good diagnostic for when you can trust either yourself or somebody else"
Now that Empathic abilities are being realized in the scientific community, with the peanut gallery already rushing to whether it is beneficial or detrimental, subjectively, new models of cognition may need to extended beyond standard models of thought cognition that is now being seen in light of not recognized emotion and visual models of how thought and thought frequency is changed with the electrical emotional changes in the nervous system. We know the brain changes the feeling of touch when we are angry, how much does it affect cognition based on emotion. We see this result in PTSD on a severe scale, but how much cognition in its formation is affected by the emotional frequency the mind is experiencing when cognition is formed. It is obvious observation, and new studies show emotion develops prior to cognition at times, other times not.
The best way to understand Daniel Kahenman is to listen to him on a long drive on The Ted Interview podcast. Chris Anderson has a smart way of extracting the best out of the best minds on this planet.
For those who don't know what he is talking about; Go and have a copy of "Thinking Fast and slow" then you will understand everything about his talk. For me it's basically like recalling the important topics of the book. P.S. It took me around 6 months to complete in the book coz in the last page cover of the book there is written "Buy it fast Read it slowly It will change the way you think"
@@norwegianzound He's right. I'm currently reading the book, and I just stopped to see this lecture. And as the guy says, Kahneman is summarizing 50 pages in 10 minutes. Of course he's leaving a lot of information out. To understand this information better is essential to read the book first.
While the intuitive people built the civilization, while constantly messing up, The sceptics ,afraid of making a mistake, are still sitting in the caves discussing the pros and cons of leaving. I think I deserve a Nobel, at least one.
I'm halfway reading (listening to, audible FTW) his book, and I gotta say it's been eye opening. Although not easy to digest and the constant bias that "no I'm different", I think it's good to have this in mind whenever one has to make an impactful decision, and first activate system 2 and second be aware of the biases and influences may cloud your thoughts. Definitely a must read for those that want to know more about decision making.
I am currently reading the book - just done 250pages - takes lots of mental effort to understand - you cannot read it with system 1 - you need to tune in your system 2 & it consumes efforts but all worth the time & efforts
From 4 yrs ago; the Test for System 2 is quite evident Today, Self control as an important intelligent characteristic Test, predictions at 4yrs old how one will respond/ react and do 20 yrs down the road. Very fascinating study, thank you Daniel Kahneman.
•Intuition - recognition. •pupil dialate 50% when focused in problem solving. •system1 (automatic) system2 (effort) •sys 2->1 by repeated application of the skill.
this is why I love cognitive phycology. I solely implied on my institution when I chose to major in music. But lately, I rely more on my system2 to make decisions concisely cuz my experience has taught me what benefits more rather than just fit my aptitude.
There is a mistake in the subtitles at 8:17. It is written : "we feel a sense of urgency" but Kahneman actually says is : "we feel a sense of agency". He means that while system 1 processing is unvoluntary, system 2 processing is under the control of the agent (i.e., the person).
Teaching a course in rational policy analysis, it's a challenge to get students to think using system 2. I read the book and thoroughly enjoyed it. When you are looking at a difficult problem, don't trust system 1. If you are lucky, system 1 will result in a good decision; most of the time it won't.
I love the piece about system 1 answering an easier question than what was asked. I have noticed that a lot with people when I ask questions and so many people answer something related without actually addressing my questions. I usually get annoyed and ask again. I guess I should not take this personal and understand this is not deliberate but automatic. Another thing I really liked was learning the relationship between chaotic environments and probability. So if people don't have enough order to be able to predict information, I don't need to trust their intuitions. I really don't like it when people are so confident in their knowing and I can tell they have no basis for it. I really need to read the whole book.
Great speech... EXCEPT for the skid example... People have completely messed this up by using confusing language to describe what you are supposed to when your car enters a skid. It's not counter-intuitive at all. The description is counter-intuitive. If you are driving down the road, and the FRONT of your vehicle begins to move left, you turn right. Period. This is extremely INTUITIVE. You are literally supposed to turn back to the way you were going BEFORE the skid occurred. For years, I was confused by people's description of this, as they used the term 'with' or 'into'... 'with', in particular, is extremely confusing as it makes it sound like you should continue the direction of skid. 'Into' isn't much better. So, PSA, if the front of your vehicle goes left, turn right so that you are straightening out. If you turn left, you are risking a 180 or even a 360.
My degrees are in psychology, however, I also study hypnotherapy, neural linguistics (NLP),etc. If one desires to broaden and deepen an understanding of this topic, I suggest that you resist the urges from system 1 and explore these disciplines (hypnosis, NLP, etc.) with an open mind.. I have been practicing as a medical and clinical hypnotherapist for more than 30 years with great and predictable results. I really enjoyed this lecture.
One of my favorite books ever. It made me understand the basics of human nature and decision making, I've reread it several times, I'm building so much on these learnings, my habits, my choices, my values. He is amazingly clever and humble in the same time.
Been working my way through his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Listening to him in this lecture really helped me understand his insights. Thank you Professor and Google
I respect to people who read his that book. I am currently at somewhere middle of it. It requires a lot of attention and patient. Hopefully I will finish it soon
A thoroughly brilliant man and an inspiration for anyone interested in studying the human mind. Please do also read Dr. Kahneman's book, as you may see in this video, "Thinking, Fast and Slow." It will more than supplement the brief talk he had at this event.
do you have any other suggestions concerning this topic? i found his book really fascinating, it also introduced me to Bayesian statistics to which i devoted much of my time to. perhaps other books similar to this one by him or any other experts in this field?
Dima Shur Well, this topic has quite a broad application, so I daresay that my suggestions may not help you precisely. However, a topical book by Daniel Gilbert, called "Stumbling Upon Happiness", deals with similar issues of prediction and judgment, but with a totally different end. Perhaps that will be a good place to start? Please do not hesitate to message me to clarify your interests, and how I may help.
gwho I have it too. It's great. The densest psychology book I've ever read or heard. My notes for the first 30 minutes filled most of a page in my notebook.
@@Human_Evolution- I'm so glad to read comments like this because I have been struggling with the book for a year. Reading super slowly and not "getting it" right away. I thought I was just stupid 😊
The problem with association although as he says it is beautifully simple. It can be dangerous as in the reason parents not vaccinating their kids. They make the same simple jump.
Excellent interview for such important information. I use Daniel Kahneman's discoveries in helping my clients and giving presentations and interviews. If you think intuition is not real or that your decisions are all wise, I strongly recommend that you listen to this interview.
Daniel has the humility and openness to acknowledge ambiguity, uncertainty, and ignorance. He prods, pokes, tickles, and caresses the soft tissue of the mind in its complexity and knee-jerk conditioning without factoring psycho-social and cultural determinants. He more than once pronounced the word 'route' as 'rout' as in 'about' rather than the globally common pronunciation 'root'. Was it pure reflex, habituation, or System 1 jaywalking while System 2 was babysitting a more demanding chore of the mind ? Shine on, Daniel. We carry undependable maps while trekking across and into the terra incognita of the awesome noösphere. I appreciate the cool diffusive lunar luminosity of your mind. Enough for a lapidary to inlay gems in a biodegradable tiara.
I have the opposite problem. I'm always a slow thinker and my System1 is very slow to react, so I tend to doubt it too often. I'm always overthinking things. I'm good at solving complex issues (fixing complex software bugs that other team members could not fix for months) but suck at mundane situations, such as counting money while shopping and forgetting that I have something in my hand and it will fall if I open my hand. I'm an introvert, and maybe that's how our brain is wired. Anyway, going to read the book; hopefully it will provide some answers.
Your not using enough focus on those easy tasks. Your autopiloting with system 1 without sufficient basis for it to do it well. Next time you go shopping focus on everything your doing and you realize suddenly you do remember everything.
I'm also in the same situation, I'm a software developer, I think I can solve complex problems, but for simple ones, I can't. (I'm also introvert). For example, if someone tells me in a quick situation to write a number(he speaks in french) I found it difficult to write it on paper.
@@herakles6185 The root cause of the issue is that it is very difficult for an introverted person to focus on simple tasks because of so-called "inner brainstorm", which gets even worse in foreign environments or when socializing. Imagine the following situation. A stranger on the street suddenly stops you and asks you "What is the capital city of France?" An extroverted person might just shrug and immediately answer: "It's Paris." However, an introverted person will immediately get carried away by the internal storm: "Oh, why are they asking me that? Is it a simple question or does it have some caveat? Is there a hidden camera somewhere? Oh, wait, what was the question? Ah, I know that I know the answer but I'm so nervous now, I just can't remember it. Oh, it's Paris... But wait... am I sure? Like, am I 100% sure? How do I know it's Paris? Where did I learn it and can I trust the source of information and my own memory? What will be the consequences if I answer it wrong? Will the person get into some trouble because of me answering wrong? Will I myself have some trouble?" etc. etc. , hundreds of thoughts and doubts. I have read some scientific studies on introverts to explain why they tend to overthink so much and why their reaction can be very delayed. It feels so true for me personally.
@@camelCased that was not the scenario, and what you described is more anxiety than anything about personality type. Out brain remember things we focus on and ignores things we dont. In your shopping scenario your not focused on things and just going through the motions, it can be difficult to focus if you have adhd but that is also separate from personality type.
@@herakles6185 Usually introverts indeed feel more anxiety when dealing with other people or required to react fast. However, even in quiet environments introverts tend to overthink things. That's the strength and the weakness of introverts - we often put the same effort and considerations into solving simple problems, as we do for the complex ones. I guess, introverts tend to focus not on the problem itself but on solving the situation "in general". For an introvert's brain, somehow it's not that important to quickly answer "Paris", but it's important to provide the best answer possible, considering the situation and all the conditions. Thus, for my brain, finding the right answer to "What is the capital of France?" somehow causes the same thinking activity as finding the right software library for a new project, when I know my choice will affect development processes for the entire team for many months to come. When solving some software development problem, I try to dig as much information as possible to find any deficiencies, imagine multiple "what if"s, and make the decision only when I feel sure enough. I feel the same stress and "internal pressure" also when trying to answer simple questions, and that slows me down a lot.
('00:00:01', 'John Boyd: All right.'), ('00:18:38', 'How to Use System 1 and System 2 as homunculi'), ('00:34:39', 'How causal thinking works.'), ('00:48:07', 'How to Improve System 1 associative memory'), ('00:56:18', 'How to overcome illusions both visual and cognitive')
Its...a large...digestive...book.... I bought it when Obama recommended it. To grasp or even explain what a particular chapter says is...thick in information and jargon.
@@trannel73 What are your main take aways from this book? I didn't get much from this talk, only a little more extra info than I already knew so I am just wondering what else this book might teach me? is it worth my time to read it? Just wondering it's a nice to read but ultimately no practical use to my day to day life. Thanks!!!
It's not really easy to read in my experience, but the main idea which the book is giving me for my everyday life (private and work as a software engineer) is basically how I should judge focus and thoughts of other people. It helped me to understand why sometimes conversations are going into specific directions, why people are experiencing topics a lot different than my impression. So all in all a clearer understanding of the mind's digesting of content with two systems (one for unconscious and one for conscious awareness). The book is helping me a little bit more, because through repetition and detailed content it will get stuck a little bit better in my mind, instead of a 1h interview. Also more examples how stuff get's fooled by our human flaws. Hope this answers your question. I know, it's broad and perhaps philosophical, but I guess my non-native english is preventing a proper answer :D
Great talk. Thank you! What does this make me: My answers/responses to Dr. Kahneman's example questions in the lecture were not what he said most of people's first intuitive answers/responses were!
@@lowereastsideastrologist7769 It's not fake modesty, it's not modesty at all, it's just how scientists think. They can't just say things they don't know about
He was rejecting his intuitive System One response (the substitution mechanism!!) in favour of System Two which told him that he didn't actually know!!
Charlie Munger & Daniel Kahneman 2 figures that had the most impact on me being more cognizant of my biases and inclined to monitor my system 1 decisions post-hoc & try and nudge them towards more correct solutions. I like to think of system 1 almost as L1/L2/L3 cache that is downstream of system 2. And system 2 can slowly update the cache but it takes time & effort.
It seems if I had written down all the observations I had made in coffee shops when I was a freshman in college, I’d have a Nobel Prize now. Damn. I blew it.
There is also slow unconscious processing, which can lead to seemingly fast intuition / recognition as a result. Hence Einsteins daydreaming that led to many of his breakthroughs, and so many other great thinkers too.
I can't speak for HAL, but that is a well established idea in psychology with substantial empirical basis (i.e. the idea that the brain works on problems over time while one is not consciously thinking about them leading to sudden 'ah ha!' moments that seem to pop out of nowhere). I remember learning about this in detail in a cognitive psychology course.
R B Kandel likes the Ah-Ha! Moment. Programmers and technologists think differently than artists. Kahneman likes to be in control and his book has been used by social engineers as they insinuate bias on the entire culture. Much depends on how one uses their mind, or brain. And what does with their brain changes the neural connections. He is a diagnostic thinker instead of an adventurer brain builder. He sounds nicer than I intuited from reading his book where he always wins by puncturing every case he confronts.
Love this Kahneman and Tyversky are the pre-eminent behavior economists are the key for controlling uncertainty or what the markets call Beta. Pavlov and "Skinner's Box" is also a pivotal and timeless psychological study of epistemology as well. Great meditation for today, of which I will be starting to label "Causal Friday"- in a way to say "how & why did that happen this week".
Brilllient book! The part of his book about our mental flaws are truly terrifying! I make these errors myself and I can see these errors in our leaders and judges. The only part of the book I am skeptical of is his assertion that we are in fact rational, we all can see so many examples to the contrary.
Kahneman's book, "Thinking Fast and Slow" is wonderful. So too is Michael Lewis' "The Undoing Project", which describes the partnership with Amos Tversky. Together, they were the Lennon & McCartney of cognitive psychology.
"A woman uses her intelligence to find reasons to support her intuition." - Gilbert K. Chesterton. Regardless of gender, we can ask, "Am I looking for reasons to support how I feel or what I think?".
If you're a real intellectual you know you don't know, but it takes emotional humility to say you don't know and for that you have to transcend the ego.
in the Q&A , listen to the one that goes about money. It´s something to be aware off and understand. Great class. Very informative. "i don´t know enough..."
It's a pity Google calls Daniel Kahneman but ignore the importance of sound quality. Hard to believe they didn't have at least someone to better this in post.
Thanks-you, your talk seriously enforces my knowledge that personal correction correlates with validity of relationship with others- alacrity with coherence- Authority. . System 1 allows the strength of introspection,
could listen to him all day long! although i'm starting to realise how much of western psychology is based on just that.. experimenting with princeton grads. i bet the monks of timbaktu behave differently, but are never studied.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.,,,...
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Hi, he’s basically saying that our brains learn much easier if we think about concrete actions instead of the process those involve. So when he compares both system 1 and 2 as ‘agents’, he does it for us to understand better their different actions (rather than learning the separate “steps” each one of them has) sorry if this is wrong but that’s what i picked up
The real bias, is the bias against 'biases'. In real time, these biases/heuristics lead directly and indirectly into new insights. For example, with confirmation bias, it helps serve as empirical evidence towards what we believe . For example, with confirmation bias if "we tend to confirm information we believe" through multiple lines of information, in a certain situation, then there is probably something factual about what we believe, and we know its safe to spend more time on rigorously justifying/proving it. Where as linear thinkers tend to miss on the opportunity. That is a tenant of EMPIRICISM - NOT A BIAS. There is a difference between using a bias to make a quick and impulsive decision in a trivial situation, for which there is little at stake, and using a sense of our biases (in harmony with rationality) towards solving critical problems. In effect, these anti-bias proponents are merely talented straw-man engineers; mostly achievement < IQ types and graying anglophiles who indulge in a deluded sense of intellectual worth.
The book is awesome, but remember its not a book that you finish in two days, you need to pay a lot of attention, you will always find this book written in small fonts , which is intentional and is done in order to wake our system 2 .... please read it carefully with an open mind!
Haven't finished it but I already disagree with the Professor minute 9:24 how come if the ball costs 10 cents and a dollar ten? it would sum up to $1.20 but the solution is the ball costs 5 cents and not equal to $1.15 ???
Though I have been reading the book, this video still helps a lot, especially the Q&A session! I have been wondering if there is any physical representations of the two systems. Can't believe I just knew the book after 6 years past!
Lots of interesting nuggets in here about how people are influenced. I wonder what ways he would find meaningful examples of thinking processes and influences in the context of the most recent election? What cognitive illusions did people fall for? What ways can we apply system 2 thinking to avoid them?
46:00 explains why fake news narratives are so easily adopted, to disastrous effect. His examples are so clearly explained. And actually in 45:00 he illustrates how fear interjected into a question creates less accurate conclusions. And a question around 55:00 to which he answers, paraphrasing, there is tremendous demand for over-confidence, whereas hesitancy is more often correct. Timely.
If you dont need the fluff, just click to minute 6:00. You're going to watch the entire things anyway and then you're going to be like, hey why didn't I listen to him. You're doing it now lol. You're welcome 😊.
Рассказывает чертовско интересные вещи. Книга великолепна хотя и немного суховата среднего читателя не смотря на невероятный объем полезной инфы . Меня ребята вдохновляют на создание контента.)
For everyone saying that this is boring and that he's not entertaining enough, keep in mind that you're not putting in effort to understand what he's saying. You're hoping that system 1, the sensational, intuitive side will kick in so you don't have to think; rather, you'd like to be entertained.
I've noticed this with animated videos, powerful public speakers, etc. They do all of the thinking for you, and you just absorb a barrage of information like a sponge. Whereas books, and simple videos like this force our rational and deliberate System 2 thinking to activate. Simple videos like this force us to do the learning ourselves.
You have surely read his book 👏🏾
yep, I think it typically relies on our system2 while reading the book. it's an energy-taking book lol.
@@layslifestyle2265 buy the hardcover variant, the lovely smell will keep you rejuvenated to finish the book
@@saswatsnayak102030 lol，i would if I finish reading the paperback version
boring is boring , a fact is a fact
Smart people are good at describing things that many of us know but can't describe.
So true. Just try having a conversation with a nuclear engineer about... basically anything. You may believe you have an accurate description of something until you speak with them and find out they have a more pinpoint description, which they will offer up without prompting. On the other hand, they can't pick out a good looking tie to save their life, nor can they explain why it looks good, or bad for that matter.
This is, of course, a sweeping generalization regarding engineers, for whom I have the utmost respect.
I am the latter , and I believe that I can learn about certain things which I don’t yet completely understand, and once I completely understand it , I can explain it .
I think smart people just know the distinction between what is "percieved" as "the obvious", while smart people look at the obvious, and distinguish how irregular it actually is.
Become who you are
Otherwise u won't know
"It's not a case of: 'Read this book and then you'll think differently. I've written this book, and I don't think differently."
- Daniel Kahneman
My favorite quote of his that encapsulates perfectly what he is saying.
I get what he is conveying but to someone who hasnt read the book, this can be read in a discouraging way.
@@stacknsat It is discouraging if you read the book with the expectation that there is a "fix" for what he is describing. It refers to the power of the type 1 thinking that rules our quick reactions. There is no quick fix, only a recognition of the power and when to slow things down to move to type 2 thinking.
@@alexfloate2420 true so being conscious of "system 1" whether you use that to your advantage or not you're "thinking differently "
Crypto Cliff notes I would call it awareness, and I think that is what he was getting at too. For example, You may still think that people who like the color yellow are idiots, but now that you are aware that is a system 1 reaction, you can slow your thinking down and move to a more rational place in your thinking.
@@alexfloate2420 Awareness is probably a better word for consciousness ....but in the end we are saying the same thing. If they are now aware they maybe able to slow down and switch systems. Hence thinking differently than what they were doing prior.
It is so refreshing to hear a public intellectual say, "I don't know." I can't imagine other Nobel Laureates in Economics (think Stiglitz, Krugman, Merton Miller) demonstrating such humility.
My impression is that this is a relatively good litmus for intelligence: smart people are good at using the "Do I know or don't I?" tool.
@@David_Lloyd-Jones ... and there are some who proclaim to be a 'stable genius'
@@APeeKay
That's another pretty good litmus, too.
But taking a second look at Maboyd's post, above, it seems to me he's wrong about at least Krugman and Miller. Krugman was famously fast to call himself wrong on the Trump Bump and his last ten years have been a pretty constant process of self-reflection mixed in with his evaluation of others. 'Course Krugman has it easy: he isn't wrong very often.
Miller is a slightly different case: it's a bit silly to say he won't admit to being wrong when his entire career is considering degrees of rightness/wrongness.
Stiglitz? Does Maboyd have an actual factual case?
@tech four9
That's a pretty strange theory, Tech.
Why does your common fucking idiot feels any desperate need for justification for their stupid beliefs? And why would they go looking for premiere intellectuals for that rationalization? Wouldn't the next common fucking idiot over be more trustworthy to them?
Just askin' 😎
@@David_Lloyd-Jones can you explain this a bit
"Confidence is not a good diagnostic for when you can trust either yourself or somebody else". Well said Sir. Hats off to you!
Please explain me i can't get it
@@quaintgamestudio6149
As per the talk, when you see someone talk and present an idea or an argument confidently you are much more likely to believe that what that person is saying is true.
This is because your system 1 is unconsciously making a connection between confidence and accuracy/correctness of the idea.
Whereas when some present an argument hesitantly or without confidence you are less likely to trust it even if it has some solid research backing it up and is much more accurate.
Hence the above quote: "Confidence is not a good diagnostic for when you can trust either yourself or somebody else"
@@bhavukful thanks for such a nice explanation 🙏
@@bhavukful have you read the book? By the way thanks for the explanation
Now that Empathic abilities are being realized in the scientific community, with the peanut gallery already rushing to whether it is beneficial or detrimental, subjectively, new models of cognition may need to extended beyond standard models of thought cognition that is now being seen in light of not recognized emotion and visual models of how thought and thought frequency is changed with the electrical emotional changes in the nervous system. We know the brain changes the feeling of touch when we are angry, how much does it affect cognition based on emotion. We see this result in PTSD on a severe scale, but how much cognition in its formation is affected by the emotional frequency the mind is experiencing when cognition is formed. It is obvious observation, and new studies show emotion develops prior to cognition at times, other times not.
The best way to understand Daniel Kahenman is to listen to him on a long drive on The Ted Interview podcast. Chris Anderson has a smart way of extracting the best out of the best minds on this planet.
For those who don't know what he is talking about; Go and have a copy of "Thinking Fast and slow" then you will understand everything about his talk.
For me it's basically like recalling the important topics of the book.
P.S. It took me around 6 months to complete in the book coz in the last page cover of the book there is written
"Buy it fast
Read it slowly
It will change the way you think"
"For those who don't know what he is talking about".....arrogant, aren't you?
@@norwegianzound He's right. I'm currently reading the book, and I just stopped to see this lecture. And as the guy says, Kahneman is summarizing 50 pages in 10 minutes. Of course he's leaving a lot of information out. To understand this information better is essential to read the book first.
yeah but he did not talk about the end of the book, he just talked about the first few sections. I kind of wish he talked more about prospect theory
Thank you for everything DK! The conclusion of "Noise" is especially thought provoking. RIP dear man 😢
this book had a large influence over how i’ve thought about decisions since i read it almost 10 years ago. great to see the author! thanks, google
While the intuitive people built the civilization, while constantly messing up,
The sceptics ,afraid of making a mistake, are still sitting in the caves discussing the pros and cons of leaving.
I think I deserve a Nobel, at least one.
Just wanted to mention this - amazing (high quality) questions were asked by the audience. Thank you Google audience.
This man changed my view of human mind forever in 2010. Big thanks for that!
System 0: (over)confidently repeat prepared answers no matter how relevant the question is...
Wonderful talk. I am buying the book.
I'm halfway reading (listening to, audible FTW) his book, and I gotta say it's been eye opening. Although not easy to digest and the constant bias that "no I'm different", I think it's good to have this in mind whenever one has to make an impactful decision, and first activate system 2 and second be aware of the biases and influences may cloud your thoughts. Definitely a must read for those that want to know more about decision making.
My Decisions Can't Be This Biased!
I am currently reading the book - just done 250pages - takes lots of mental effort to understand - you cannot read it with system 1 - you need to tune in your system 2 & it consumes efforts but all worth the time & efforts
What do you mean by system 1 and 2
Thank you Talks at Google for putting these videos up, its awesome to be able to watch them ....
@Kehnai Bohnyu )))))))l))))))))))l)))l)))
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@@alanwong7514 reesg
From 4 yrs ago; the Test for System 2 is quite evident Today, Self control as an important intelligent characteristic Test, predictions at 4yrs old how one will respond/ react and do 20 yrs down the road. Very fascinating study, thank you Daniel Kahneman.
•Intuition - recognition.
•pupil dialate 50% when focused in problem solving.
•system1 (automatic) system2 (effort)
•sys 2->1 by repeated application of the skill.
•better way to remember list- by road mapping to in space.
•agent doing work better way of remembering.
I loved his response to the question about advertising particularly his mentioning that a lot of politics has the same effect as advertising.
this is why I love cognitive phycology. I solely implied on my institution when I chose to major in music. But lately, I rely more on my system2 to make decisions concisely cuz my experience has taught me what benefits more rather than just fit my aptitude.
i mean intuition lol
There is a mistake in the subtitles at 8:17. It is written : "we feel a sense of urgency" but Kahneman actually says is : "we feel a sense of agency". He means that while system 1 processing is unvoluntary, system 2 processing is under the control of the agent (i.e., the person).
Teaching a course in rational policy analysis, it's a challenge to get students to think using system 2. I read the book and thoroughly enjoyed it. When you are looking at a difficult problem, don't trust system 1. If you are lucky, system 1 will result in a good decision; most of the time it won't.
I love the piece about system 1 answering an easier question than what was asked. I have noticed that a lot with people when I ask questions and so many people answer something related without actually addressing my questions. I usually get annoyed and ask again. I guess I should not take this personal and understand this is not deliberate but automatic.
Another thing I really liked was learning the relationship between chaotic environments and probability. So if people don't have enough order to be able to predict information, I don't need to trust their intuitions. I really don't like it when people are so confident in their knowing and I can tell they have no basis for it.
I really need to read the whole book.
Great point. Check out the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Great speech... EXCEPT for the skid example... People have completely messed this up by using confusing language to describe what you are supposed to when your car enters a skid. It's not counter-intuitive at all. The description is counter-intuitive. If you are driving down the road, and the FRONT of your vehicle begins to move left, you turn right. Period. This is extremely INTUITIVE. You are literally supposed to turn back to the way you were going BEFORE the skid occurred. For years, I was confused by people's description of this, as they used the term 'with' or 'into'... 'with', in particular, is extremely confusing as it makes it sound like you should continue the direction of skid. 'Into' isn't much better. So, PSA, if the front of your vehicle goes left, turn right so that you are straightening out. If you turn left, you are risking a 180 or even a 360.
I like how Kahneman talks. He is a very good at speech and speaks in simple layman terms.
My degrees are in psychology, however, I also study hypnotherapy, neural linguistics (NLP),etc. If one desires to broaden and deepen an understanding of this topic, I suggest that you resist the urges from system 1 and explore these disciplines (hypnosis, NLP, etc.) with an open mind.. I have been practicing as a medical and clinical hypnotherapist for more than 30 years with great and predictable results. I really enjoyed this lecture.
One of my favorite books ever. It made me understand the basics of human nature and decision making, I've reread it several times, I'm building so much on these learnings, my habits, my choices, my values. He is amazingly clever and humble in the same time.
Been working my way through his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Listening to him in this lecture really helped me understand his insights.
Thank you Professor and Google
I respect to people who read his that book. I am currently at somewhere middle of it. It requires a lot of attention and patient. Hopefully I will finish it soon
A thoroughly brilliant man and an inspiration for anyone interested in studying the human mind. Please do also read Dr. Kahneman's book, as you may see in this video, "Thinking, Fast and Slow." It will more than supplement the brief talk he had at this event.
do you have any other suggestions concerning this topic? i found his book really fascinating, it also introduced me to Bayesian statistics to which i devoted much of my time to. perhaps other books similar to this one by him or any other experts in this field?
Dima Shur Well, this topic has quite a broad application, so I daresay that my suggestions may not help you precisely. However, a topical book by Daniel Gilbert, called "Stumbling Upon Happiness", deals with similar issues of prediction and judgment, but with a totally different end. Perhaps that will be a good place to start? Please do not hesitate to message me to clarify your interests, and how I may help.
His book is very in-depth and eye opening.
i like the audiobook. very easy to listen to.
gwho 🎩
gwho I have it too. It's great. The densest psychology book I've ever read or heard. My notes for the first 30 minutes filled most of a page in my notebook.
@@Human_Evolution- I'm so glad to read comments like this because I have been struggling with the book for a year. Reading super slowly and not "getting it" right away. I thought I was just stupid 😊
The problem with association although as he says it is beautifully simple. It can be dangerous as in the reason parents not vaccinating their kids. They make the same simple jump.
One of the books I’d recommend to anyone I meet.
I have it but the tiny letters and the size of the book and the info...It's quite heavy though
RIP Professor Kahneman
Excellent interview for such important information. I use Daniel Kahneman's discoveries in helping my clients and giving presentations and interviews. If you think intuition is not real or that your decisions are all wise, I strongly recommend that you listen to this interview.
Daniel has the humility and openness to acknowledge ambiguity, uncertainty, and ignorance. He prods, pokes, tickles, and caresses the soft tissue of the mind in its complexity and knee-jerk conditioning without factoring psycho-social and cultural determinants.
He more than once pronounced the word 'route' as 'rout' as in 'about' rather than the globally common pronunciation 'root'. Was it pure reflex, habituation, or System 1 jaywalking while System 2 was babysitting a more demanding chore of the mind ?
Shine on, Daniel. We carry undependable maps while trekking across and into the terra incognita of the awesome noösphere. I appreciate the cool diffusive lunar luminosity of your mind. Enough for a lapidary to inlay gems in a biodegradable tiara.
Prof Sattar Basra Do you have a book? Where do you give classes? I want to write like you. Serious. What is your major? Reply,bpls.
Route pronounced like about is the American pronunciation of the word.
Thanks for the input. I slouch over the keyboard, corrected.
I have the opposite problem. I'm always a slow thinker and my System1 is very slow to react, so I tend to doubt it too often.
I'm always overthinking things. I'm good at solving complex issues (fixing complex software bugs that other team members could not fix for months) but suck at mundane situations, such as counting money while shopping and forgetting that I have something in my hand and it will fall if I open my hand. I'm an introvert, and maybe that's how our brain is wired. Anyway, going to read the book; hopefully it will provide some answers.
Your not using enough focus on those easy tasks. Your autopiloting with system 1 without sufficient basis for it to do it well. Next time you go shopping focus on everything your doing and you realize suddenly you do remember everything.
I'm also in the same situation, I'm a software developer, I think I can solve complex problems, but for simple ones, I can't. (I'm also introvert). For example, if someone tells me in a quick situation to write a number(he speaks in french) I found it difficult to write it on paper.
@@herakles6185 The root cause of the issue is that it is very difficult for an introverted person to focus on simple tasks because of so-called "inner brainstorm", which gets even worse in foreign environments or when socializing.
Imagine the following situation. A stranger on the street suddenly stops you and asks you "What is the capital city of France?" An extroverted person might just shrug and immediately answer: "It's Paris."
However, an introverted person will immediately get carried away by the internal storm: "Oh, why are they asking me that? Is it a simple question or does it have some caveat? Is there a hidden camera somewhere? Oh, wait, what was the question? Ah, I know that I know the answer but I'm so nervous now, I just can't remember it. Oh, it's Paris... But wait... am I sure? Like, am I 100% sure? How do I know it's Paris? Where did I learn it and can I trust the source of information and my own memory? What will be the consequences if I answer it wrong? Will the person get into some trouble because of me answering wrong? Will I myself have some trouble?" etc. etc. , hundreds of thoughts and doubts.
I have read some scientific studies on introverts to explain why they tend to overthink so much and why their reaction can be very delayed. It feels so true for me personally.
@@camelCased that was not the scenario, and what you described is more anxiety than anything about personality type. Out brain remember things we focus on and ignores things we dont. In your shopping scenario your not focused on things and just going through the motions, it can be difficult to focus if you have adhd but that is also separate from personality type.
@@herakles6185 Usually introverts indeed feel more anxiety when dealing with other people or required to react fast.
However, even in quiet environments introverts tend to overthink things. That's the strength and the weakness of introverts - we often put the same effort and considerations into solving simple problems, as we do for the complex ones. I guess, introverts tend to focus not on the problem itself but on solving the situation "in general". For an introvert's brain, somehow it's not that important to quickly answer "Paris", but it's important to provide the best answer possible, considering the situation and all the conditions. Thus, for my brain, finding the right answer to "What is the capital of France?" somehow causes the same thinking activity as finding the right software library for a new project, when I know my choice will affect development processes for the entire team for many months to come. When solving some software development problem, I try to dig as much information as possible to find any deficiencies, imagine multiple "what if"s, and make the decision only when I feel sure enough. I feel the same stress and "internal pressure" also when trying to answer simple questions, and that slows me down a lot.
('00:00:01', 'John Boyd: All right.'),
('00:18:38', 'How to Use System 1 and System 2 as homunculi'),
('00:34:39', 'How causal thinking works.'),
('00:48:07', 'How to Improve System 1 associative memory'),
('00:56:18', 'How to overcome illusions both visual and cognitive')
It is system 1 that tells you powerfully ,who you are amongst others.
Amazing Man ! Terrific Book . Don t be daunted by the size . You could chew one chapter a month and still benefit a lot !
Its...a large...digestive...book....
I bought it when Obama recommended it. To grasp or even explain what a particular chapter says is...thick in information and jargon.
I really love the quote on the back of the book:
"Buy it fast. Read it slowly. It will change the way you think!"
~ Richard Thaler, author of Nudge
Yes! Also, chew it slow for better digestion
@@trannel73 What are your main take aways from this book? I didn't get much from this talk, only a little more extra info than I already knew so I am just wondering what else this book might teach me? is it worth my time to read it? Just wondering it's a nice to read but ultimately no practical use to my day to day life. Thanks!!!
It's not really easy to read in my experience, but the main idea which the book is giving me for my everyday life (private and work as a software engineer) is basically how I should judge focus and thoughts of other people. It helped me to understand why sometimes conversations are going into specific directions, why people are experiencing topics a lot different than my impression. So all in all a clearer understanding of the mind's digesting of content with two systems (one for unconscious and one for conscious awareness).
The book is helping me a little bit more, because through repetition and detailed content it will get stuck a little bit better in my mind, instead of a 1h interview. Also more examples how stuff get's fooled by our human flaws.
Hope this answers your question. I know, it's broad and perhaps philosophical, but I guess my non-native english is preventing a proper answer :D
Best book ever
it’s just a magic reading it
I'm half way with the book, I'm glad I made the choice to read it.
Scholarly, insightful and delivered with great thought and humility. Thank you Dr Kahneman!
Thank you very much, Dr. Kahneman, amazing speech, amazing finding outs, I love this guy
I might need to listen to his lecture more than once to absorb knowledge. (and read his book)
Great talk. Thank you! What does this make me: My answers/responses to Dr. Kahneman's example questions in the lecture were not what he said most of people's first intuitive answers/responses were!
experience leads to confidence. diagnostic feedback leads to competence.
This is perhaps the most important thinking, i have come across.
"I don't know enough"
W
His previous quote 'the world is unpredictable' immediately came to mind.
Fake modesty.
Help me find this particular phrase in the video
@@LaldinpuiaRalte 1:00:33 in response to the question.
@@lowereastsideastrologist7769 It's not fake modesty, it's not modesty at all, it's just how scientists think. They can't just say things they don't know about
He was rejecting his intuitive System One response (the substitution mechanism!!) in favour of System Two which told him that he didn't actually know!!
Charlie Munger & Daniel Kahneman 2 figures that had the most impact on me being more cognizant of my biases and inclined to monitor my system 1 decisions post-hoc & try and nudge them towards more correct solutions.
I like to think of system 1 almost as L1/L2/L3 cache that is downstream of system 2. And system 2 can slowly update the cache but it takes time & effort.
"Intuitive expertise is not going to develop in a chaotic universe" 17:23
It seems if I had written down all the observations I had made in coffee shops when I was a freshman in college, I’d have a Nobel Prize now. Damn. I blew it.
World is not predictable. Formulas defeat themselves and the one's who have created them. it's experience that helps build formula.
at 8:20, a sense of agency, or urgency as mentioned in subtitle?
Thank You Google for bringing Him here for US!
There is also slow unconscious processing, which can lead to seemingly fast intuition / recognition as a result. Hence Einsteins daydreaming that led to many of his breakthroughs, and so many other great thinkers too.
HAL have u spend time on this manner, or are u just trying to look as though u understand.
I can't speak for HAL, but that is a well established idea in psychology with substantial empirical basis (i.e. the idea that the brain works on problems over time while one is not consciously thinking about them leading to sudden 'ah ha!' moments that seem to pop out of nowhere). I remember learning about this in detail in a cognitive psychology course.
R B Kandel likes the Ah-Ha! Moment. Programmers and technologists think differently than artists. Kahneman likes to be in control and his book has been used by social engineers as they insinuate bias on the entire culture.
Much depends on how one uses their mind, or brain. And what does with their brain changes the neural connections. He is a diagnostic thinker instead of an adventurer brain builder.
He sounds nicer than I intuited from reading his book where he always wins by puncturing every case he confronts.
Love this Kahneman and Tyversky are the pre-eminent behavior economists are the key for controlling uncertainty or what the markets call Beta. Pavlov and "Skinner's Box" is also a pivotal and timeless psychological study of epistemology as well. Great meditation for today, of which I will be starting to label "Causal Friday"- in a way to say "how & why did that happen this week".
I don't know enough. He is a wise and modest man.
So humble a person.
One of the few modern books worth reading.
I don’t know enough- the humility is sexy and inspiring!!
He speaks the same way he write... i am listening to, even seeing him after reading him...
Try speeding up playback. 1.25 helps a lot for maintaining focus.
Yeah man I watch at 2 this guy takes forever to get to the point
Brilllient book! The part of his book about our mental flaws are truly terrifying! I make these errors myself and I can see these errors in our leaders and judges. The only part of the book I am skeptical of is his assertion that we are in fact rational, we all can see so many examples to the contrary.
Kahneman's book, "Thinking Fast and Slow" is wonderful. So too is Michael Lewis' "The Undoing Project", which describes the partnership with Amos Tversky. Together, they were the Lennon & McCartney of cognitive psychology.
"A woman uses her intelligence to find reasons to support her intuition." - Gilbert K. Chesterton. Regardless of gender, we can ask, "Am I looking for reasons to support how I feel or what I think?".
If you're a real intellectual you know you don't know, but it takes emotional humility to say you don't know and for that you have to transcend the ego.
my thoughts are MAGICAL
in the Q&A , listen to the one that goes about money. It´s something to be aware off and understand.
Great class. Very informative.
"i don´t know enough..."
One of the best books I have read in my life! Great work
I like that he understands instrumentalist approach in his teaching concepts.
A nice recursive approach to the neuroscience.
Just finished Noise, his latest book. Previously I've read Think fast and slow and there are plenty of references between these two.
Mazing Man! Great talk, a perfect well said, and an eye-opening one! Thanks, Google for bringing him here to us!
Great lecturer and great audience questions. I might have to take my notebook out and watch this again!
It's a pity Google calls Daniel Kahneman but ignore the importance of sound quality. Hard to believe they didn't have at least someone to better this in post.
Great talk.
Thanks-you, your talk seriously enforces my knowledge that personal correction correlates with validity of relationship with others- alacrity with coherence- Authority. . System 1 allows the strength of introspection,
@15.30 Is Prof. Kahneman describing what we also know as 'Flow' Mihaly Czichzentmihaly
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Yes iioi
could listen to him all day long! although i'm starting to realise how much of western psychology is based on just that.. experimenting with princeton grads. i bet the monks of timbaktu behave differently, but are never studied.
Excellent point👍🏻
Great talk. It kinda is a really short run down of his book. I definitely recommend coming back to this video after having read the book!
While system 2 can be tested using riddles that can question logic and problem solving skills, system 1 can be tested with 'task oriented' activities.
Just to control my impulses, had to rewind the video 3 times for complete focus. It's a great video to come back to understand "Systems".
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.,,,...
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Hello there, please who is the F/A guiding you? i'm in dire need of one
I happen to know Jenny Pamogas Canaya She has been my fin coach since 2018, no major losses has been recorded. Totally recommend her too.
Oh found her! Looked up her full name and she was my top search. Thank you for this! Really appreciate.
Hi, how does he mean the agents part? Could someone explain? ~ 23:20
Hi, he’s basically saying that our brains learn much easier if we think about concrete actions instead of the process those involve. So when he compares both system 1 and 2 as ‘agents’, he does it for us to understand better their different actions (rather than learning the separate “steps” each one of them has)
sorry if this is wrong but that’s what i picked up
37:16 Confidence we experience is a judgment of probability
So you're a PhD, but this came out as a mind blowing fact for you?
The real bias, is the bias against 'biases'. In real time, these biases/heuristics lead directly and indirectly into new insights. For example, with confirmation bias, it helps serve as empirical evidence towards what we believe . For example, with confirmation bias if "we tend to confirm information we believe" through multiple lines of information, in a certain situation, then there is probably something factual about what we believe, and we know its safe to spend more time on rigorously justifying/proving it. Where as linear thinkers tend to miss on the opportunity. That is a tenant of EMPIRICISM - NOT A BIAS. There is a difference between using a bias to make a quick and impulsive decision in a trivial situation, for which there is little at stake, and using a sense of our biases (in harmony with rationality) towards solving critical problems. In effect, these anti-bias proponents are merely talented straw-man engineers; mostly achievement < IQ types and graying anglophiles who indulge in a deluded sense of intellectual worth.
The book is awesome, but remember its not a book that you finish in two days, you need to pay a lot of attention, you will always find this book written in small fonts , which is intentional and is done in order to wake our system 2 .... please read it carefully with an open mind!
Nice cloud computation..i enjoy it thanks à lot
Haven't finished it but I already disagree with the Professor minute 9:24 how come if the ball costs 10 cents and a dollar ten? it would sum up to $1.20 but the solution is the ball costs 5 cents and not equal to $1.15 ???
Daniel khaneman you will learn something sure. Smart and important person
Though I have been reading the book, this video still helps a lot, especially the Q&A session! I have been wondering if there is any physical representations of the two systems. Can't believe I just knew the book after 6 years past!
Intuition is instincts (genetics) and recognition (experience).
RIP Daniel Kahneman
Great! Thanks for the opportunity!
Lots of interesting nuggets in here about how people are influenced. I wonder what ways he would find meaningful examples of thinking processes and influences in the context of the most recent election? What cognitive illusions did people fall for? What ways can we apply system 2 thinking to avoid them?
46:00 explains why fake news narratives are so easily adopted, to disastrous effect. His examples are so clearly explained.
And actually in 45:00 he illustrates how fear interjected into a question creates less accurate conclusions.
And a question around 55:00 to which he answers, paraphrasing, there is tremendous demand for over-confidence, whereas hesitancy is more often correct.
Timely.
What an amazing talk! I am glued to him just brilliant!! Thank you!
If you dont need the fluff, just click to minute 6:00. You're going to watch the entire things anyway and then you're going to be like, hey why didn't I listen to him. You're doing it now lol. You're welcome 😊.
Рассказывает чертовско интересные вещи. Книга великолепна хотя и немного суховата среднего читателя не смотря на невероятный объем полезной инфы . Меня ребята вдохновляют на создание контента.)
thank you so much for sharing this interessant talk , gave me insight thanks Google