What I find astonishing as a Kiwi who has returned to new Zealand after many years is that there is no discussion of the 'elephant in the room,' the transfer of wealth from the taxpayer to the newly emergent rentier class we now have here. They create no value, in fact they are little more than parasites. But the result is that young people can no longer hope to own their own homes. In fact, they can't afford to even rent them! No wonder they are escaping to Australia.
@@MajorDrama1 These are people who purchased their first house when they were in their early twenties, and by the time they were thirty, had a renter, and as the prices rose, they were able to keep buying more of them. They have exploited the capital gains on these houses without adding much value themselves. That is one example. Hoses had become the preferred investment of the Kiwi middle class. I blame Roger Douglas for getting the ball rolling.
When a government doubled the money supply that money ends up doubling the price of housing. How is that the falt of those who are frugal enough in their spending to invest in their future so others don't have to pay for their retirement?
@@o4pureh2o House prices keep doubling because demand outstrips supply. That is partly because houses have become 'safe as houses' investment vehicles got the Kiwi middle class. It is understandable, but its like getting into the drug business because it's profitable--it's a question of moral principles.
@@robjamieson8033 The real "Rentier" class is the banks, because all those people who were wise and hardworking enough to buy their first home early, had to borrow and pay interest. They also have to maintain their property and create employment for the various trades that renovate properties. The fact that the capital gains were so big from around 2002 up to at least 2007, was not the fault of the buyers themselves. It's an inflated market. So blame the market and banks if anyone. Not people who decide to take opportunities. Most people who complain about landlords are usually just jealous that they didn't buy a house and do the same thing. Owning houses is not usually the road to riches either. It's hard work, comes with risk and there are a lot of bad tenants out there. Also, you say houses keep doubling. Over what timeframe?
People leaving today were looking into it a year ago, that's the reality. The racist separatist agenda of the last government scared a lot of people, make no mistake.
Right at the beginning of this vid, crazy talk. None of the countrys are anti immigration only anti uncontrolled immigration. How would nz cope if 1000s of illegal immigrants came in every week
@@新型コロナは空事です legal migrants are normally skilled. They are wanted and needed. Europe has millions of so called refugees from places not compatible with modern civilization. That is why there is an increase in crime, sexual assaults, gangs etc.
Stop foreign ownership of homes and land, must live here permanently to own, our grandchildren will end up renting off foreigners and unable to own a home
This is misleading oversimplification of a complex issue. I’m an immigrant to New Zealand where you pretty much have to enter through a port by sea or air. NZ immigration can choose who gets in based on the needs of the country at any given time. What’s happening in Europe and North America is not comparable in any way.
Sure it is, not enough people are wanting to go to America legally and them wanting to keep up demand is the same as a small place keeping up demand by allowing as many people as they can in. If 1% of the world want to come that is 80 million, finding 0.5% of that and high earners with the myth of NZ being green and safe shouldn't be hard but both reasons are for demand. 23 countries are going to lose half their populations due to old age, Au and NZ would already be declining if it were not be for immigration.
@@antonyjh1234 The only long term solution is to reverse a declining fertility rate. Incentivise families and build the nation using its own stock. Any attempt to make up for an aging population with migration alone is appealing to the mechanics of a ponzi scheme.
Im an immigrant myself but do not agree with overreliance on immigrants. It changes the culture of a country. I would rather see a population growth through natural causes like child birth, a greater focus on family and nurturing of the nucleur family, helping NZ born kiwis to establish a career in NZ through subsidised study and training. I certainly did not come here to see immigrants take over this beautuful island. I do agree we are needed but our purpose should not be to replace the original people of this land.
I totally agree that we need to nourish those who have gained and invested in their own education through degrees etc There appears to be a gap between the universities and work environment, hence many leave.
Everyone living permanently in this country is either an immigrant or is descended from immigrants. The wealth of this country is its immigrants and the work they do.1500 years ago NZ was inhabited solely bye the birds and a few bats.
I am also an immigrant, and I want to close the door behind me. I disagree with you that immigrants are needed. People repeat the phrase without fully considering whether it is true. We do not. The demographic issues are wildly overstated by people who don't fully understand what the numbers mean.
The 'original' people of this land as you put are mostly lazy. We need immigrants because they're more grateful to live here and actually go to work. I've seen countless of working age males not willing to work. Infact, they're not good father's either.
(Brah, love your approach. These pencil heads get indoctrinated in institutions like Switzerland, the home of the cult WEF, UPU etc etc. Model this model that but none of it is about humanities growth rather its demise. )
It's different attitude in Europe due to the type of immigration being hugely illegal in nature and of cultural and religious nature that in incompatible and unwilling to assimilate.
Why people leave? Larger job market and salaries. Better house price affordability. More potential to get ahead. Due to a broken monetary and financial incentives system, people are willing to leave their homelands - due to the in affordability of building a life - the key issue is housing (shelter) is unaffordable for normal kiwis. Salary to house price ratio is abysmal and horrific lending rates. What’s wrong with the western world? We use houses as financial assets because the money is broken. People can’t save their salary for a house because their currency is losing value against houses. We have created a class system based on shelter - Maslow’s hierarchy of needs cannot be met by a salary in NZ any more. People are waiting until late thirties to have kids. Communities are not being built by renter or high wealth immigrants with nice third houses, they are build by people with roots in a community I.e property owners. Why? Again - Housing is used as a financial instrument because money is broken. Money is printed and pumped houses out of the ability of a normal kiwi’s wages. We need a technology for people to save capital without debasement. We need a technology to incentivise saving outside of houses. Houses should be valued on utility only. Make houses normal again.
@@nathanscott1249 one day we are going to look back at that ludicrous point in history where kiwis and the western world used houses as financial assets, instead of just for their utility value. Fix the money, fix the incentives, change the world
Without taking ownership and personal responsibility just where do you think all these societal and infrastructural benefits are generated from, working a beguiling 35 hours a week stroking a key board and swiping an eftpos card. NZ is suffering from treason of the intellect from what to think not how to think, NZ requires innovation, new technologies and urgent accelerated productivity gains to build the nations heritage, social cohesion and purpose, otherwise keep going with the orgy of victimhood and blame and drinking that Soviet Kool Aid, now a discontinued line in Russia, KPP
That is ridiculous to simply label people as far right anti immigrant. What were the social and cultural implications of accepting 1,000,000 immigrants into Germany? The facts and figures are interesting; Spoonley's political bias isn't.
Yea it's obvious they are dividing and conquering races and splitting people from their families neighborhoods and making everybody fight for gold while pretending they care about each race one by one in their own countries letting every country get overflown with immigrants and they all get richer and gayer
My parents married in 1960's, saved and bought a house, had four children, never worked on saturdays or sundays,always owned a holiday home and a boat somewhere, only dad worked as a tradesman, We never wanted for anything. Then in 1990's we started to see high levels of immigration from lower wage nations. Nowadays you have to be rich to afford a lifestyle that most working kiwis like my family enjoyed back then
May be you need to factor in the economics through that period, commonwealth subsidies for our exports, then the EEC took all of that away. Then a series of economic shocks, oil prices, careless days, think big, Stockmarket crash in 87. And those things have continued to disrupt our economy and still do, GFC, big earthquakes, Covid, cyclones, wars, plus our trading partners and geopolitics… not to mention the housing booms. I doubt there’s a straight comparison between then and now, rather there are a number of factors that have affected all of us that sort of explain the journey.
@OMC5428 But the biggest impact on house affordability in rentals and ownership is a supply and demand issue largely to do with mass immigration. Sorry to say, but that's the elephant in the room that this professor won't acknowledge because his idealogy won't let him... Yes, we need to build more houses but it's not gonna happen because of a combination of sky high land prices and the bureaucratic nightmare involved including costs before a builder even lifts a hammer! Building has pretty much become an elite endeavour which means the supply cannot keep up with the demand so until this changes the majority of the working class will most likely remain anti-immigration because it actually affects them and their future.
@ supply and demand ultimately is the biggest factor that changes most commodity prices isn’t it? One problem I have with this thread is the idea that immigration from lower wage countries has led to our lifestyle being no longer affordable unless you are rich. That is a remarkably simplistic correlation. Is the thinking then, that those immigrants have taken the houses in the cost bracket that the writer would be buying into? Or that those immigrants didn’t add anything to the economic productivity here? What is the logical extension to just blaming immigration? Because the business-level thinking would be increasing the workforce to produce more for NZ-inc global trade, surely. It’s like Americans blaming their woes on 10-12million illegal immigrants in a 300million-plus rich population, as if they weren’t contributing (at $7/hr wages). Sorry but that logic simply does not stack up, but it’s easy-politics to make people believe they’re the enemy and deny the truth about the wealthy forcing an economic decline due to neo-liberal policies to be fully borne by the middle and lower classes. At least the rich can stay rich.
@@OMC5428 While supply and demand plays a significant role in determining prices, it's not the sole factor contributing to increased prices of commodities and materials in New Zealand's housing market. Several extenuating factors come into play: Supply and Demand Factors: 1. Housing shortage: New Zealand's housing supply hasn't kept pace with demand, driving up prices. 2. Population growth: Increased migration and natural population growth have boosted demand. 3. Urbanization: Auckland's growth has led to increased demand for housing and materials. *Extenuating Factors:* 1. *Global market trends:* International price fluctuations for materials like lumber, steel, and copper impact local prices. 2. *Transportation costs:* Increased shipping costs, fuel prices, and logistics expenses contribute to higher material costs. 3. *Tariffs and trade policies:* Global trade tensions and tariffs affect import costs. 4. *Local regulatory environment:* Building codes, zoning regulations, and resource consents can increase construction costs. 5. *Seasonality:* Weather-related disruptions, seasonal demand fluctuations, and holiday closures impact supply chains. 6. *Supply chain disruptions:* Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, or manufacturing shortages can cause price increases. 7. *Inflation:* General inflationary pressures, monetary policy, and interest rates influence construction costs. 8. *Labor costs:* Skilled labor shortages, wage growth, and training costs contribute to increased construction expenses. 9. *Government policies and taxes:* Taxes, levies, and government fees (e.g., GST, council fees) add to construction costs. 10. *Market speculation:* Investor activity, land banking, and speculation can drive up land and material prices. *New Zealand-Specific Factors:* 1. *RMA (Resource Management Act) reform:* Changes to environmental regulations and planning laws impact development costs. 2. *KiwiBuild program:* Government initiatives aimed at increasing housing supply can influence market dynamics. 3. *Construction industry capacity:* Limited competition, skill shortages, and industry fragmentation contribute to higher costs. 4. *Material import dependence:* New Zealand's reliance on imported materials exposes the market to global price volatility. *Data Sources:* 1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) 2. Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) 3. Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) 4. New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) 5. Construction Industry Council (CIC) To better understand the complex interplay of factors, consider consulting reports and research from these organizations. The real estate institute of NZ just reported house prices are trending down relatively slowly (falling like a slow glacier in Antarctica). But Rentals are trending up now.
And you think one caused the other???? Rather than the tax cuts for high income earners causing high levels of property speculation and the drop in real income for lower income earners making houses more expensive for them????
New Zealand has more road cones in the 2 km from my home than I came across in 500km in the Netherlands. Government, bureaucratic waist and broken money makes everything costs much more than it should.
Same thing happening all over the world. Grass is no greener anywhere else. Aussie is or could be richest country in the world but its not because of dumb leadership. Talking to the boys in the mines earning 100 thousands per year in WA , same thing as down town Hamilton or Ngaruawahia etc , houses over priced interest rates high , builders and mateial in short supply and still takes 30 + years to pay off. It aint now different . NZ you can atleast escape the riff raff on the weekends and go fishing or something and actually catch something🤣
This government in New Zealand calls the people in this country Customers, we have an idiot in charge that wants to run this country like a business. Even though he is a failed businessman that lined his pockets real well, also has many properties that he rents out and just recently gave a subsidy to people that rent out properties. So this is the climate in this country, where everything has been turned into a money making scam. The road cones are just another form of bureaucratic nonsense in order to make money as Health and Safety became a significant political football allowing a new set of rules and layer of paperwork. The making money part is the cost of each road cone, which is $69NZ and in one street where one hundred meters of roadworks was done I counted two hundred and forty seven road cones, so if you want to know what a scam looks like, this is it.
“I can’t believe we don’t have rail connection to the airport”? Ummmm you realise it can be an 8hr wait at our emergency departments? How about more doctors, more wards, more nurses than public transport to the airport???
I am an immigrant from Germany, and I find life here to be much harder than in Germany. The cost of living is significantly higher, and housing is extremely expensive. Renting is also disproportionately costly. Six months ago, I became dependent on social welfare due to a work accident, and now I’m really struggling because the social system here is very poor compared to Europe. What I currently receive from WINZ to live on is far from sufficient. I would like to return to Germany but cannot because I don’t want to be separated from my son. The waiting lists for social housing are so long that I am currently living in my car, as my savings have run out.
I will not encourage any one past 50 to migrate to NZ unless you have sufficient funds to buy a home mortgage free and prepare to downgrade and take on a minimum pay job.
You overlooked an important point - European countries want to preserve /retain their unique european culture, language, education and western civilisation itself. Immigrants from other places bring noticeable changes, often alien and disturbing.
Nobody questions ethnic preference when it’s Jewish or Korean people. For some reason white races are required to be ethnically replaced though. This guest is a really awful person
Yes yes yes . Preserving your people is very important. If you can, go over to X, there you will see just how bad the UK really is. I am a pacific islander and we moved here to nz to provide a better future for our families. We came and lived the laws of nz and follow the rules like everyone else. When migrants or refugees start saying we need a muslim state or to implement their own sharia laws into our Governemnts then that's when I have a problem with them. UK, Germany, Sweden are suffering under the extensive number if refugees, illegals coming in at the cost of the taxpayers!!! those who follow the rules are fine but those who aren't need to leave and never come back Sadiq Khan and Keir Starmer are causing so much havoc. The polish prime minister is out here looking out for his people. Mind you with all the island men and women I'm sure they'll be able to throw those who try to overrun both the place we call home on their damn boats and tell them to farq off with their backwards laws of sharia. I am all for the preservation of your people😇😇
Also Nz immigrants come mainly come from the pacific. Where as European immigrants come from Africa as in Middle East, Sudan etc war torn countries. Just like USA’s immigrants mainly come from South America filled with gangs, sex trafficking and drugs. The immigrants we have enter Nz are not the same as those western countries.
If a Kiwi wants to live/work/retire in SE Asia, citizenship/permanent residence is not on the table. Workers can and will come to NZ without citizenship/permanent residence being on the table.. something you will NEVER hear being discussed because people want to pander to their own wishes...
thailand at present has a great 5 year visa for online workers (self sponsored too fir online entrepreneurs) to spend offshore earnings in a very much cheaper place. geoarbitrage heaven.
sadly often it’s racism. especially for lower educated and untravelled folk. i spent 20 years outside nz as an expat. but the minute someone outside the area i was in did something bad the colour of my skin turned me - in the eyes of many of the host country - an economic migrant.
@@trailrunningexperience496 I have a second home and small farm in Cambodia even a 7 year old Khmer daughter but I can never get permanent residence.. please explain that ?
Man I was thinking this , I was thinking - please don’t let this man anywhere near the country’s decision making 😂 we already have problems with leaders all over the world
@@MajorDrama1 You’re guilty of making the same materialist assumption that housing is a commodity. It is actually the foundation of family life. Having a permanent and secure place to raise a family reduces stress on relationships. An address that remains constant for friends and family strengthens ties, and that home becomes an anchor in the community. Children grow up with other families in stable housing and suburbs become an extension of the home. Community builds up around this constancy, and having a core group of unchanging families becomes a support structure for others who come and go. People set down roots and develop a stronger sense of place and identity. They are more involved in volunteer organisations and local council because they have tangible links with the people they serve. But materialists don’t like this. It speaks to roots and home and tradition and must be destroyed at every stage lest the proles forget that they are supposed to be interchangeable economic units.
@@pressme71nz Died laughing. Guilty eh? A serious charge indeed my friend! Would seem that you have appointed yourself the arbiter of wrongthink?! Your cosy little world sounds a bit like some romantic historical notion of NZ as we imagine it to have been in the late 1930s? If housing was the "foundation" of it all, then why do some areas with enough houses prosper and others wither and fail? I would argue that it's because, while we do obviously need shelter to prosper, communities are primarily the product of people and high quality tribes build high quality communities. Houses are whatever we choose them to be. They come and they go - As do those who pass through them. All this other stuff that you erect/construe beyond that is really just nostalgia for a world thats long been and gone
Most of the immigrants that have come into Europe have been unskilled and do not even speak the language. They add little to the economy and live on welfare. Those that do work are in things like agricultural labouring, this season demand for labour can be met with a seasonal fixed term visa program. NZ takes 1.5k of refugees a year Merkel took 1.5 million displaced persons, Germany doesn't have a population 1000 times NZ. I am from Australia and our refugee intake has 80% of them still dependant on welfare 5 years after arrival, this is a government figure. Banks want to lend for housing as the required capital requirements are less than other loan types. The Basil Banking accord has capital requirements based on risk weighting against assets (loans). Lending for housing allows the banks to make more loans with a given capital requirements and hence higher return on equity than other loan types.
Simple, those who didn't create and build the nation, but come to enjoy the spoils of the nation having paid no tax to the country as an ancestral collective.
How about everyone should be working to their 65 and have no access to benefits, regardless! Then, statistics will reveal who will stay and build Aotearoa.
Well up until 2015 retired people from china who moved here got full nz pension and full chinese pension whereas anyone from aussie or uk has their pensions seized by our government
We don't have much illegal immigrants, so we're probably not going to see the same pushback. Young people are leaving because of the rent/property prices. Immigrants are having the same issue. Despite an increase in the number of dwellings over the past 40 years, the dwelling supply has not kept up with the demand due to both population growth and decreasing household sizes. This means there are fewer people per dwelling than in 1980s, but not enough additional homes to meet the rising demand. Leaving nz with a shortfall of about 900k dwellings compared to what’s needed. Demanding more immigration, while not addressing this shortfall in dwellings is slowly killing nz for young people
@@elliottmarshall1424 immigration is not the fix, I agree. That’s not addressing the root issue: Houses should not be used as a financial tool or savings account to protect your money from inflation. The inflation of currency needs to stop, we need a money that retains its value so people with salaries are not disadvantaged against asset holders. Broken money - Lyn Alden.
@@edawg654 We need money that inflates, it's the reason why the west is so rich, because there's always money to borrow. People have other options, stock market, gold, crypto and other assets. But that should never be money. Yes, property is a bottle neck, it steals value from the people actually creating value. I've heard some crazy ideas, like getting rid of income taxes and replace it with property taxes. Which would force people to sell property to those actually earning all the money
@@edawg654exactly, the ridiculous money printing has caused too much inflation. This means you can't just keep your money in cash and have to buy assets to protect it from inflation. And houses are the safest investment. I don't like the system but it's the reality.
@janbyres1099 My ex did social work course at massey. This dude was one of the professors there, maybe 10 years or so ago..I didn't suggest sociology was communism...but it damn rime. Most liberal arts professors are indeed communists...and I know a few from Massey I have even audited a few courses with them, it is communism through and through .... but that's no secret anymore.
I am an expat from Colombia, I have found New Zealand very challenging lately with the cost of everything but no country is perfect I’d go back to Colombia but what I love about New Zealand is how calm is Auckland feels like a small city I am skilled but I get paid more in other jobs I know the New Zealand work culture is completely different from the American culture is all about the balance of life but at the same time this has created problems of things going up , I consider closing the shops earlier makes things very limited and the small amount of population makes it even harder and not enough skilled workers here has made me realise there’s not much variety.
Sovereign wealth fund for the country. Western countries need to realise that they have to diversify their income streams away from taxing their population to death. Use the countries natural resources to generate wealth to avoid high taxation. Other countries do it. Why not NZ and the rest of the west?
This conversation was insightful, but it’s crucial to discuss the groundbreaking aspects of a country or nation. We need to ask ourselves: "How independent are we in pursuing our goals?" "What resources do we have to achieve those goals?" and "Do we favor a centralized government or a more regionalized approach?" I assert that comparing New Zealand with Denmark, rather than Sweden, is more relevant. There are valuable lessons we can draw from both nations, but we must focus on what makes New Zealand unique and how we can build on that foundation.
its a great question spoonley, how are you going to pay for it all? CGTs and more tax are simply not the answer its just not clear from overseas examples whether the investors will shift from housing to businesses spoonley had a whole lot of solutions of increasing immigration and 'diversity' in the name of 'economy', but offered no solutions for the brain drain we have
Immigration, or more correctly, the wrong kind of Immigration is part of the problem. We get no economic benefit from the parent visa categories, and they shouldn't exist. Migration of construction workers has caused wage distortions locally, repressing local wages and contributing to qualified New Zealand trained tradies heading to Australia for improved wages and conditions, every single bloke from my school year who went into building now lives in Australia, every single one, all of them. LVT does everything CGT does, but does it better, a change in this space is overdue when land banking a perfectly good house, even leaving it empty results in a tidy profit in the long term here. If this practice could be discouraged through taxation while giving wage earners some form of tax relief then that would work to reduce some of the distortions currently in the economic environment.
Thanks for sharing this discussion lads. Some useful and eye opening data here. I was apart of that net immigration gain of 155,000 in 2023. Immigrated in on a AEWV and was able to bring my wife and son, straight to residency and so far loving it. May be able to shed some light on why there’s 80,000 people leaving. Better pay in America, less taxes, lower costs of living, better healthcare imo. It all adds up. We knew that going in. However. Super grateful for the opportunity to be here in NZ and I see a ton of potential growth in this still very young country. The people are amazing and very generous. We’ll be here for the long haul baby.
New Zealand’s high cost of living, low wages, and limited opportunities make it unsustainable. After three years of full-time study, I’ve been working full-time as a laborer for three years. It’s not worth it; time to move on.
There are very few countries in the world where big cultural differences have led to a cohesive society. Eg.The massive Islamic migtation to Europe is causing discontent all round. A stronger culture nearly always dominates the weaker culture. The political elite backed by the UN are purposefully destabalising the West by encouraging massive immigration by mainly muslim people. Its causing a very unhappy European population. The so-called economic contribution has not actually eventuated. Just the opposite. It has not worked anywhere and will not. Read up a bit of history. New Zealand's "lifestyle" is no better than many other countries. Pure BS.
We have been here for over 22 years, we love it here and very passionate about the country. However we have one issue is that crime and the the law deals with criminals is so bad that it looks like law is encouraging the criminals do go further.
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@@keepthechangenzno incentive to do so. 30 bucks a week for ece as end of year tax rebate what the MA arts finance minister dishes out at the moment. when i lived in japan local councils were offering money to young couples to breed. i remember my city mayor at my welcome party telling me he pays a million yen a baby. told me to get on the job! he was well into the kanpai part of the party so not sure if he was legit but the Japan Times listed my city as one of the places incentivising procreation. it obviously didn’t work. i think the population of japan is now in steep decline.
We have become a country of people working against each other. Some are self reliant and do what they have to,the others dont manage themselves because the tax payer pays the bills. Its self perpetuating. Less govt and rewards for effort
No. More public investment in public infrastructure equals lower costs to do biz, live, and lift productivity. You’ve been distracted from the main game. Private monopolies and commercial banks are bleeding us dry
When a country locks itself away from the rest of the world for 2 years and then has resulting inflation issues a lot of people are going to leave. It will come good in the next year or so.
@@dave24-73 You are biased, all our immigrants are well educated English speakers now, especially those from India. We could be getting crazy Americans who can't speak English.
@ suggest you look at the rest of the world, I’m not biased, I’m just pointing at the elephant in the room, if you can’t see it, or you are one of them that’s not really my fault. NZ has rapidly declined in recent years and a good part of it is due to migrants.
My father arrived in NZ in 1949 and they were going to live at Picton as it had the best weather then and catch the underground to Nelson for work lol nothing has changed, they stayed on the boat and went straight to Nelson.
The problem is 100,000 people annually for the last 20 years had crippled our infrastructure and had inflated house prices and cost of living,NZ is just a stepping stone to Aussie!
Things arent much better in Aussie these days either. In many Australian cities the housing crisis is even worse than in NZ. Kiwis should really be looking further afield for a better lifestyle. SE Asia for example.
So you would have us believe that an emeritus professor on all things immigration, whos been writing on the topic for decades, and consultant expert to government, somehow mysteriously has no idea about the causes and reasons behind one of the most remarkable migration stories of our nation's history?
555 comments! It's great he gave so many people a chance to respond to the prevailing wind direction in academia. Clearly, it's not blowing in the same direction as for the rest of us. It's been blowing the wrong way there for way too long.
There definitely needs to be a tax on all immigrants and it needs to be on a sliding scale according to age and if you arrive here at 65 that tax needs cover infrastructure, healthcare, and superannuation to the age of expected death. This must be a tax not an investment.
I an NZ born citizen.I am leaving in a few weeks due to no employment.Unable to find even employment even in low skill jobs,usually filled by new immigrants, employers aren't interested in kiwi workers, to keep wage bill at minimum wage.Due to inconsistent job market I have not had any children because of it.A lot of new immigrants who have NZ passports are leaving for Australia or other countries.I paid my student loan and so should everyone else.
I think the thing that Kiwis need to understand is that rich people are not bad. Judging by the books behind you, you have laterally bought into this idea at least some. The idea that someone is inherently bad because of their wealth, is like someone is like saying they are inharently bad because of their skin color. I know that Kiwis dont like when people come here and tell us that we are wrong, but sometimes we are wrong. There are plenty of evil ways to become rich but there are also many honest ways to becoming rich. For example hard work, good drive, the ability to manage your money well, managing time well, being efficient, not blowing it all immediately...If we exclude the hyper rich, I link generally poor and rich people to their spending habbits and abbility to actually save their money. Saving a little emergency money is literally so important and smart to do. Why does nobody bother about doing it then? The problem is that people do not have good spending habbits, they do not have the ability to save money for a rainy day. Instead, they want to take the money from people who are able to manage their money and save it. Is that fair? Is it fair that people who work hard, and have enough self control to save their their money, manage their time well, dont let addictions rule their wallets, and make good life decisions should pay for the people who dont master their own character, and blow all their money as soon ss they get it? It seems that the majority of New Zealanders would rather point the finger at rich and say bad, and poor means hero. Its identity polotics. I do blame the super rich for plenty of problems but that is a separate topic. I comepletely disagree with the idea that if you have two people, same job, same pay, same opportunities. One makes really good decisions, saves a bit every week, and becomes upper middle class after 30 years deserves to to pay for the one who blows everything they ever do and doesnt make wise decisions. People in new zealand use identity politics to just assume rich people are bad. So no wonder "rich" people want to leave. They want to spend their hard saved money wisely! I grew up poor, my perents lived in actual poverty. They slowly became wealthy through hard work, and saving their money. They gave to needs, helped around the world, started schools and health centers around the world. Gave to the comunity in real needs like food, housing, and jobs, directly meeting the needs of people. After coming back to new Zealand, my mum wanted to retire and invite a lot of people into a community that she took the financial burden of. She was met with so many people trying to get whatever money they could off her, sueing her for money and generally causing a ridiculous amount of lies and gossip about her. Btw, thank you for the video, i agree with what your going for there. It just was ammusing that intelligent men like yourselves are so baffled as to what could be causing people to leave New Zealand. Gernerally, if youre smart or rich, the fashion is that you're supposed to be disliked. Anyways, much love!
Being wealthy and hated isn't quite the same as being poor and hated. Sometimes people choose to be poor. It's just easier. Some people don't want what you have. Freedom comes at a cost. You may not be able to keep up with the Jones and won't be getting an Xmas card, yet that doesn't matter I never really liked the Jones. Not because their bad, just different. There is nothing better than a good night's sleep. Staying in ya pj's all day. Or a mince and cheese pie on a cold day enjoying the fact ya don't gots to be anywhere doing anything except eating and enjoying that pie. To be fair it was hard work to get to this bliss in my life. Poor? Probably by Jones standards. Yet by the standards of the only person who counts, me. I'm the wealthiest woman alive. ❤
The reason young Kiwi's in there 20s are leaving is due to the cost of living compared to income (even though house prices havd risen 80% here in Australia in the last 3yrs). Though, if they have student loans, I'd be cautioning them to pay it off because, there is nothing like home.
If you are going to reference Sweden, put it in context. Sweden is an export-oriented economy like ours but unlike ours Sweden's economy is highly developed and export-oriented. The country's engineering, pulp and paper, steel, and chemical industries have become internationally prominent, ours are in decline. Sweden is the world's 16th wealthiest country. We are at 37. Not a very good comparison.
NZ geolocation that leads to logistic cost and final price sets the difference between the two and I believe, it should be "import oriented", not "export" (CMIIWW,)
@@arknova_nz you have no understanding of economics. What you propose is like a company buying whatever they want but not actually selling anything or making any income. Sorry your proposal is absurd in the extreme.
@@MaxSpeedNZ is Not quite right; in fact, this is what I see around me: people turn themselves into consultants and work remotely for global clients from NZ (drive the money in). That is the digital economy that many countries are trying to push nowadays. Anything produced in NZ will constantly bump into high labour costs, the Resource Management Act and environmentalism without a scientific foundation (unless you start with significant capital for that opex). You judge too early, mate :)
great pod - he likely comes across to some as a dirty socialist but of course that really means he’s educated and traveled and seen that 30 years of discussion, prevarication and politicisation in nz has led to horrific infrastructure shortfalls. meanwhile developing nations like chile, kenya. thailand vietnam etc have trains from airport terminals to 5 star hotel doorsteps. while auckland has your sister’s ex boyfriend calling in favours to get a lift off as some 20 year old van with unusual stains on the seat sits on the motorway with a pothole induced puncture.
He lives in a bubble as an Academic and someone that clearly hasn't had to struggle financially to get ahead... That's why he is clueless as to why young people especially are leaving in droves for Australia and abroad! Because of high immigration and the bureaucratic nightmare and exorbitant costs involved with building houses supply cannot keep up with demand, paying for rent let alone the dream of owning their own home and raising a family is near impossible for young people especially in the bigger NZ cities let alone the towns where earning power is less anyway... They need to interview the types of people that it affects not someone that is cleary blinded by his ideology and lives in an ivory tower.
I remember reading in a local Chinese English language paper, maybe 10 years ago, that Paul Spoonley was quoted as predicting that by about now there would be more folk of Chinese origin living in NZ than Maori. Was well reported in the Chinese community! How has that forecast worked out?
Asian (total, excluding India) and Māori are roughly about 17% each. But what isn’t acknowledged is that those asians are probably full blooded, while there aren’t even half blood Māori left. Māori are a remnant population.
Ten years ago, the Chinese economy boomed, and wealthy Chinese wanted to send their money overseas rather than collected by their government. They found NZ property open for overseas buyers to be heaven. Then, the NZ housing boom drove the nation's economy, creating opportunities for developers and tradies. Who are you blaming here?
The government traditionally wastes much of the money they receive from taxes so before we add any more taxes we need to first cut red tape and stop wasteful government spending so that we are more efficient with what we have. This just add more taxes idea is not the answer if it all gets wasted in inefficiency.
we should be lowering taxes to increase the tax base ,make us all wealthy and people will want to live here for the right reasons .you are right about the waste in government spending , fix that and we are half way to solving this countries problems . bring on Elon Musk .
Why the endless conversation about government taxing more??? How about some discussion about them with spending less of other people’s money. 💰!!!!!! History shows us politicians & bureaucrats are terrible investors & predictors of the future.
The Thai population is in decline, too. The sociologists there say that Thailand is the only developing country to "grow old before it grows rich." Thailand brought into the overpopulation myth started in the 1970s. While their catholic and muslim neighbors, the Phillipines and Indonesia, kept having babies, due largely to their religious beliefs.
You get these people by giving police and nurses a huge pay rise, stop funding stupidity with tax payer money. Those that drop out of the stupidity movement fill the gaps in nursing and police. Let's face , what good are political scientists and arts degree people in nz and could name more. Am I wrong?
I ❤ NZ. This has happened throughout our history. International scholars and professionals are incentivised by subsidies, idealistic promises, and the prospect of bringing family over once settled. Pacific Islanders, Mainland Chinese, Eastern European, South East Asian, Sub-Saharan African, North African, Indian, Sri Lankan, Mediterranean, Arabian, etc - people from countries where English is a secondary or tertiary language are naturally going to bring their cultures and build a society within this one to AID assimilation. The phenomenom of diaspora as a quantifiable identifier is an emerging factor in these younger cohorts. They are the children and Grandchildren of immigrants, many from countries that were forcibly colonised or have developed adjacently to the Commonwealth realm and her Allies. Cultural Reclamation is a major part of this identity. It no longer matters your place of birth if you are aware of your origins, you are forever rooted to these places. The idea of representing and fully embracing national and cultural pride abroad is more romanticised these days. Throw on a sports shirt and cling to anything kiwiana. Therefore people feel better able to move around with the same motives of their forebearers seeking better conditions. Education and technology has broadened prospects considerably. The issue of retention I feel is greatest where globalisation and local quality of life intersect. Working people like horses to maintain market competitiveness. Squeezing out local commerce by becoming the satellite for large business and companies. The cost of modernisation on a country as isolated and small as ours. Australia is larger, possesses resources high in demand, and has a morally grey relationship with Indonesia, and her benefactors by proxy. Our little Aotearoa New Zealand is rich in moral integrity but also a little too deep in the sand. We need the proactive adaptations of humane practices and mindsets. Consumerism and nationalism is the colour of imperialist regimes that bleed money, obsession with control, short-sighted amd selfish ambitions. The building of mosques and temples, inclusion of more languages into official translations, and all those other wonderful inclusions, are not the end of pur identity. Ask around the world - it is our strength. Together we go further.
I suppose next we will be told there are no poverty ridden overcrowded cities in India. Never mind that we can see a variety of videos about life in India, anytime we want to. And we can talk with Indians about life, as it is for millions over there. So if he can easily buy a house in India. Then why didn't he? And if he isn't happy here. Then go back to India. That's the obvious answer isn't it?
NZ prospered in the 50s and 60s with a smaller population. Surley, if eveyone who lives in a community contributes to that community, rather than on life time benefits, then we would produce enough to sustain ourselves. On the one had we're told we need population growth, and on the other hand, we're told the world is over populated. If there were insentives for families to have babies, then the demographic would correct it self. This guy focuses on migration for growth. There is another way.
The US does have a large immigrant population - legal and illegal - of about 15%. They have a higher birth rate overall. Any child born in the US is a US citizen.
you're not that bright are you? USA has it higher than here in NZ or in the UK, as for China and India, they are overpopulated nations which run an old archaic system and its not really working as well as ours.
Most people that leave NZ and become financially successful aren't likely to return to NZ because of the FIF tax. Most I know (Kiwi's with US citizenship), including myself are happy to pay NZ taxes on our return but due to FIF, we would end up getting double taxed AND taxed on unrealized capital gains tax each year.
We have always lost our younger demographic to the big one, travel etc, what's new. A lot return but if they aren't looked after when they are here there is no reason to come back.
it isn't only workers that count, it's the impact on GDP. Germany's problem was that the 1 mil added population but neither workers nor contributors to GDP, worse, not to consumers either. Accordingly, it's on the slide. Angela got it wrong.
If you don't have an inheritance in New Zealand you're stuffed. The wealth inequality, housing prices, and incompetent government are outrageous. Last one out turn, the lights off!
I Pay thousands of dollars in tax, and when I made a police complaint regarding a Neighbour dumping stuff into my property and vandalising stuff, the Cops did not do anything and advised I was wasting their time? The same is the case with healthcare I was paying bill in full for IV drips. Nurses were not available for 6 weeks the one I got was scared to do it. level of education is dropping, and the budget is decreasing for education. City councils are always out of budget and poor management always looking to increase rates. All this is breaking back of the average kiwi. Higher cost of living and low wages. People who leave if you ask them will tell you one of the reasons increase in crime, poor health care, education, salary, difficulty finding jobs, and expensive basic food items. lower wages. Rates keep on increasing in double-digit.
Saying it's a lifestyle choice to live here is utter nonsense. Every country has a lifestyle but if everything is so expensive then the pay rates should encourage people to come here as well. If you can't afford a lifestyle then your not coming here it.
I believe that is only part of the problem. The whole cycle is supported by multiple ownership sucking up property and pushing more marketplace demand. A factor in high cost is landbanking and materials and labour which, the latter two have had two big earthquakes and covid to force marketplace demand/shortages of building materials and labour. It is not just immigration, that's like blaming homebuyers for a lack of property for sale.
Paul Spoonley is a very good demographer but a poor economist. He makes comments on economic development for which he has no knowledge. Immigration has not provided the economic growth that he has promised for decades.
What a great video, with a proportional decrease in the working aged population and wages not keeping up with inflation, the govt is going to have to find new sources of income that dont involve further pushing away workers. I learnt a lot from this conversation, and its so great to come across a finance podcast aimed at us kiwis! Subscribed!
I have no data to support what I’m about to say but I moved to Australia since 2008 , successful business family growing happily but why do I feel like I have to be a millionaire if I wanted to come back and live in NZ ?
Elephant in the room: No Capital Gains Tax NZ lacks equality in the tax system and this contributes to growing poverty and homelessness throughout New Zealand. If you buy a home in NZ for $1.2M and sell it for $2M a few years later..you pay $0 tax of that gain. If you have a minimum wage job earning $20 a hr, you will pay 30% tax. NZ is amazing if you are wealthy...but if you did have $5M as an investor thinking of moving somewhere, you could choose NZ...but you could choose nearly every other destination on the planet too...
What a nonsense regarding Germany being against migrants. Germany had build its country on workers from Italy, Spain, Turkey etc. That started in full in the 1960s, mate.
Nz has to realise fast that its economy is small and relies immensely of export of agriculture ,predominantly dairy not tourism. Nz also has to realise its the best country because of low population. Stop letting in to many people and allow kiwis to enjoy their land. Nz is already diverse and you can still walk down a street and people talk to you just. Keep it that that way and learn from the now sht hole Melbourne where its over populated and no one wants to know you!!
New Zealand has so many problems but all we do is talk about them. These are some of the things we could to do because we need to increase government revenue in order to improve our aging infrastructure and pay for our social services for our aging population 1.Raise the universal superannuation age to 70 in steps but it should be portable .This means many people in their old age can move to poorer countries with a lower cost of living .This will help to reduce the demand on our health department.However we should allow certain categories of people who are unable to work to continue to have access to it from the age of 65 but it must be means tested. Immigrants should not be able to claim the full rate of superannuation unless they have worked and paid taxes here or a minimum of 20 years. 2.Raise GST to 20% with a reduction in income taxes. Tourists are then taxed higher rate and the increase in revenue will help pay for the services we provide for them 3.Introduce a CGT and also an inheritance tax should be considered. 4.Introduce a Sugar Tax as we have one of the worlds highest rates of obesity and with it a very high incidence of Stage 2 Diabetes 5.Increase the tax on alcohol which is the drug which causes the most economic damage. These are not radical ideas as many countries have similar laws and have a higher standard of living to us.
To attract doctors What about nz funding medical school for deserving undergrads? This has been done in usa on a location basis to get doctors in locations that are unpopular. ( like Alaska).
As a South African, I can assure you that when there is no electricity and there is no water.... no healthcare... none of this kak will matter. U either a New Zealandar wanting to build a better future or not...
My 2 sons and 6 friends went to Perth, 4 qualified builders, 3 qualified electricians, 1 linesman, all got jobs earning double there salary in NZ. Cheap gas, food cheaper, rent about the same. No hurry to return in the near future. Most took girlfriends as well who had qualifications and all got jobs earning more.
The problem with nz is to much immigration at a time. The housing spruikers want high numbers so demand for rental properties are high and buyers. This and low interest rates are the two major causes of high house prices. But high house prices only help a small amount of the population. And doesn’t help the economy. High debt is less disposable income
Impose taxes on real estate speculators especially foreigners. There’s no capital gains tax or any form of taxation to foreigners. We need to protect the locals and improve our fiscal position. That’s the main reason why there is a brain drain here, the citizens have no propensity to accumulate wealth. Those who are working have to pay exorbitant taxes to pay for the benefits payments of those who are just sitting on their butts because they’re depressed or are drug addicts
You cannot talk about a maximum population figure because it depends on many factors , the main one being the rate of the country's economic growth.And as we live in a capitalist society we need economic growth to maintain are standard of living.
Yes but the Shiply /Helen clarke days didnt look after the up coming apprentices and NZ lost tons of young innovative and hard working people to Aussie and overseas. Most were happy living in Nz but were pushed away. Allot had plans to come back but life then gets in the way with most.
Humans aren’t plants. There have always been explorers it has always been more usual for humans to stay in close communities. If everyone split the moment they turned 18, we’d get alienated and fractured families and lose our sense of community…. Sort of what happens now. No coincidence that social wellbeing markers have dropped.
@@pressme71nz Are they not? Human DNA is nearly 80% match to the one of Banana. We are part of Life and we have the same fundamental features of it as all other life forms.
What I find astonishing as a Kiwi who has returned to new Zealand after many years is that there is no discussion of the 'elephant in the room,' the transfer of wealth from the taxpayer to the newly emergent rentier class we now have here. They create no value, in fact they are little more than parasites. But the result is that young people can no longer hope to own their own homes. In fact, they can't afford to even rent them! No wonder they are escaping to Australia.
Who exactly are you blaming here? Who are this "newly emergent rentier class" that we now have here?
@@MajorDrama1 These are people who purchased their first house when they were in their early twenties, and by the time they were thirty, had a renter, and as the prices rose, they were able to keep buying more of them. They have exploited the capital gains on these houses without adding much value themselves. That is one example. Hoses had become the preferred investment of the Kiwi middle class. I blame Roger Douglas for getting the ball rolling.
When a government doubled the money supply that money ends up doubling the price of housing. How is that the falt of those who are frugal enough in their spending to invest in their future so others don't have to pay for their retirement?
@@o4pureh2o House prices keep doubling because demand outstrips supply. That is partly because houses have become 'safe as houses' investment vehicles got the Kiwi middle class. It is understandable, but its like getting into the drug business because it's profitable--it's a question of moral principles.
@@robjamieson8033 The real "Rentier" class is the banks, because all those people who were wise and hardworking enough to buy their first home early, had to borrow and pay interest. They also have to maintain their property and create employment for the various trades that renovate properties. The fact that the capital gains were so big from around 2002 up to at least 2007, was not the fault of the buyers themselves. It's an inflated market. So blame the market and banks if anyone. Not people who decide to take opportunities.
Most people who complain about landlords are usually just jealous that they didn't buy a house and do the same thing. Owning houses is not usually the road to riches either. It's hard work, comes with risk and there are a lot of bad tenants out there. Also, you say houses keep doubling. Over what timeframe?
What new Zealand really needs is a prime Minister not being puppet of wef and doing there biding
Does the bidding of NZ head of state = King Charles III
People leaving today were looking into it a year ago, that's the reality. The racist separatist agenda of the last government scared a lot of people, make no mistake.
Exactly
Exactly 💯
@@masterheke7339 Charlie is in cahoots with the WEF and the other evil globalists. 😵💫
Right at the beginning of this vid, crazy talk. None of the countrys are anti immigration only anti uncontrolled immigration. How would nz cope if 1000s of illegal immigrants came in every week
Yeah this guy is out of touch 😂
We jave thousands of legal immigrants coming in every week. I don't see the difference.
@@新型コロナは空事です legal migrants are normally skilled. They are wanted and needed. Europe has millions of so called refugees from places not compatible with modern civilization. That is why there is an increase in crime, sexual assaults, gangs etc.
Didn't John key n his profiteers party reap financial benefits buying up under the homeless care n wellbeing??? 4who !!!
Have they noticed how lazy kiwi's are? Thank goodness for immigration. I'm a kiwi, one that actually worked before retirement.
Stop foreign ownership of homes and land, must live here permanently to own, our grandchildren will end up renting off foreigners and unable to own a home
Already the case.
@@knowahnosenothing4862when most of our banks are foreign owned, they are the true owners of the majority of our homes with money owed on them.
Foreign ownership isn't a problem here, foreigner has the right to own homes and land in here
This is misleading oversimplification of a complex issue. I’m an immigrant to New Zealand where you pretty much have to enter through a port by sea or air. NZ immigration can choose who gets in based on the needs of the country at any given time. What’s happening in Europe and North America is not comparable in any way.
Indian?
American
Sure it is, not enough people are wanting to go to America legally and them wanting to keep up demand is the same as a small place keeping up demand by allowing as many people as they can in. If 1% of the world want to come that is 80 million, finding 0.5% of that and high earners with the myth of NZ being green and safe shouldn't be hard but both reasons are for demand. 23 countries are going to lose half their populations due to old age, Au and NZ would already be declining if it were not be for immigration.
@@antonyjh1234
The only long term solution is to reverse a declining fertility rate.
Incentivise families and build the nation using its own stock.
Any attempt to make up for an aging population with migration alone is appealing to the mechanics of a ponzi scheme.
So true, it’s illegal immigrants that’s the problem in these countries. Allowing more than necessary
Im an immigrant myself but do not agree with overreliance on immigrants. It changes the culture of a country. I would rather see a population growth through natural causes like child birth, a greater focus on family and nurturing of the nucleur family, helping NZ born kiwis to establish a career in NZ through subsidised study and training. I certainly did not come here to see immigrants take over this beautuful island. I do agree we are needed but our purpose should not be to replace the original people of this land.
I totally agree that we need to nourish those who have gained and invested in their own education through degrees etc
There appears to be a gap between the universities and work environment, hence many leave.
Everyone living permanently in this country is either an immigrant or is descended from immigrants. The wealth of this country is its immigrants and the work they do.1500 years ago NZ was inhabited solely bye the birds and a few bats.
I am also an immigrant, and I want to close the door behind me.
I disagree with you that immigrants are needed. People repeat the phrase without fully considering whether it is true. We do not.
The demographic issues are wildly overstated by people who don't fully understand what the numbers mean.
The 'original' people of this land as you put are mostly lazy. We need immigrants because they're more grateful to live here and actually go to work.
I've seen countless of working age males not willing to work. Infact, they're not good father's either.
(Brah, love your approach. These pencil heads get indoctrinated in institutions like Switzerland, the home of the cult WEF, UPU etc etc.
Model this model that but none of it is about humanities growth rather its demise. )
It's different attitude in Europe due to the type of immigration being hugely illegal in nature and of cultural and religious nature that in incompatible and unwilling to assimilate.
yes we are not bound like the contiguous geography of places like europe, asia and africa.
It’s the Muslims who are ruining it.
America's war on terror caused the migrants situation in Europe.
So nothing to do with their history of hating anyone who is different, e.g., ethnically, religiously, etc.
spot on !
Why people leave?
Larger job market and salaries.
Better house price affordability.
More potential to get ahead.
Due to a broken monetary and financial incentives system, people are willing to leave their homelands - due to the in affordability of building a life - the key issue is housing (shelter) is unaffordable for normal kiwis. Salary to house price ratio is abysmal and horrific lending rates.
What’s wrong with the western world? We use houses as financial assets because the money is broken. People can’t save their salary for a house because their currency is losing value against houses. We have created a class system based on shelter - Maslow’s hierarchy of needs cannot be met by a salary in NZ any more. People are waiting until late thirties to have kids. Communities are not being built by renter or high wealth immigrants with nice third houses, they are build by people with roots in a community I.e property owners.
Why? Again - Housing is used as a financial instrument because money is broken. Money is printed and pumped houses out of the ability of a normal kiwi’s wages.
We need a technology for people to save capital without debasement. We need a technology to incentivise saving outside of houses. Houses should be valued on utility only.
Make houses normal again.
Bro you just described bitcoin
@@nathanscott1249 one day we are going to look back at that ludicrous point in history where kiwis and the western world used houses as financial assets, instead of just for their utility value.
Fix the money, fix the incentives, change the world
Lmao@@nathanscott1249
Without taking ownership and personal responsibility just where do you think all these societal and infrastructural benefits are generated from, working a beguiling 35 hours a week stroking a key board and swiping an eftpos card. NZ is suffering from treason of the intellect from what to think not how to think, NZ requires innovation, new technologies and urgent accelerated productivity gains to build the nations heritage, social cohesion and purpose, otherwise keep going with the orgy of victimhood and blame and drinking that Soviet Kool Aid, now a discontinued line in Russia, KPP
It is actually the English speaking western world that is obsessed with property.
That is ridiculous to simply label people as far right anti immigrant. What were the social and cultural implications of accepting 1,000,000 immigrants into Germany? The facts and figures are interesting; Spoonley's political bias isn't.
Only gotta watch what's going on in UK
Spoonley is a looney
This guy is a typical kiwi academic. Head in clouds No doubt lives in neighborhood where everyone looks like him
Yea it's obvious they are dividing and conquering races and splitting people from their families neighborhoods and making everybody fight for gold while pretending they care about each race one by one in their own countries letting every country get overflown with immigrants and they all get richer and gayer
Spoonley seems a bit far left!! Did he attend one of those university indoctrination places?
My parents married in 1960's, saved and bought a house, had four children, never worked on saturdays or sundays,always owned a holiday home and a boat somewhere, only dad worked as a tradesman, We never wanted for anything. Then in 1990's we started to see high levels of immigration from lower wage nations. Nowadays you have to be rich to afford a lifestyle that most working kiwis like my family enjoyed back then
May be you need to factor in the economics through that period, commonwealth subsidies for our exports, then the EEC took all of that away. Then a series of economic shocks, oil prices, careless days, think big, Stockmarket crash in 87. And those things have continued to disrupt our economy and still do, GFC, big earthquakes, Covid, cyclones, wars, plus our trading partners and geopolitics… not to mention the housing booms. I doubt there’s a straight comparison between then and now, rather there are a number of factors that have affected all of us that sort of explain the journey.
@OMC5428 But the biggest impact on house affordability in rentals and ownership is a supply and demand issue largely to do with mass immigration.
Sorry to say, but that's the elephant in the room that this professor won't acknowledge because his idealogy won't let him...
Yes, we need to build more houses but it's not gonna happen because of a combination of sky high land prices and the bureaucratic nightmare involved including costs before a builder even lifts a hammer!
Building has pretty much become an elite endeavour which means the supply cannot keep up with the demand so until this changes the majority of the working class will most likely remain anti-immigration because it actually affects them and their future.
@ supply and demand ultimately is the biggest factor that changes most commodity prices isn’t it? One problem I have with this thread is the idea that immigration from lower wage countries has led to our lifestyle being no longer affordable unless you are rich. That is a remarkably simplistic correlation. Is the thinking then, that those immigrants have taken the houses in the cost bracket that the writer would be buying into? Or that those immigrants didn’t add anything to the economic productivity here? What is the logical extension to just blaming immigration? Because the business-level thinking would be increasing the workforce to produce more for NZ-inc global trade, surely. It’s like Americans blaming their woes on 10-12million illegal immigrants in a 300million-plus rich population, as if they weren’t contributing (at $7/hr wages). Sorry but that logic simply does not stack up, but it’s easy-politics to make people believe they’re the enemy and deny the truth about the wealthy forcing an economic decline due to neo-liberal policies to be fully borne by the middle and lower classes. At least the rich can stay rich.
@@OMC5428
While supply and demand plays a significant role in determining prices, it's not the sole factor contributing to increased prices of commodities and materials in New Zealand's housing market. Several extenuating factors come into play:
Supply and Demand Factors:
1. Housing shortage: New Zealand's housing supply hasn't kept pace with demand, driving up prices.
2. Population growth: Increased migration and natural population growth have boosted demand.
3. Urbanization: Auckland's growth has led to increased demand for housing and materials.
*Extenuating Factors:*
1. *Global market trends:* International price fluctuations for materials like lumber, steel, and copper impact local prices.
2. *Transportation costs:* Increased shipping costs, fuel prices, and logistics expenses contribute to higher material costs.
3. *Tariffs and trade policies:* Global trade tensions and tariffs affect import costs.
4. *Local regulatory environment:* Building codes, zoning regulations, and resource consents can increase construction costs.
5. *Seasonality:* Weather-related disruptions, seasonal demand fluctuations, and holiday closures impact supply chains.
6. *Supply chain disruptions:* Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, or manufacturing shortages can cause price increases.
7. *Inflation:* General inflationary pressures, monetary policy, and interest rates influence construction costs.
8. *Labor costs:* Skilled labor shortages, wage growth, and training costs contribute to increased construction expenses.
9. *Government policies and taxes:* Taxes, levies, and government fees (e.g., GST, council fees) add to construction costs.
10. *Market speculation:* Investor activity, land banking, and speculation can drive up land and material prices.
*New Zealand-Specific Factors:*
1. *RMA (Resource Management Act) reform:* Changes to environmental regulations and planning laws impact development costs.
2. *KiwiBuild program:* Government initiatives aimed at increasing housing supply can influence market dynamics.
3. *Construction industry capacity:* Limited competition, skill shortages, and industry fragmentation contribute to higher costs.
4. *Material import dependence:* New Zealand's reliance on imported materials exposes the market to global price volatility.
*Data Sources:*
1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
2. Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ)
3. Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)
4. New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)
5. Construction Industry Council (CIC)
To better understand the complex interplay of factors, consider consulting reports and research from these organizations.
The real estate institute of NZ just reported house prices are trending down relatively slowly (falling like a slow glacier in Antarctica).
But
Rentals are trending up now.
And you think one caused the other???? Rather than the tax cuts for high income earners causing high levels of property speculation and the drop in real income for lower income earners making houses more expensive for them????
New Zealand has more road cones in the 2 km from my home than I came across in 500km in the Netherlands. Government, bureaucratic waist and broken money makes everything costs much more than it should.
Same thing happening all over the world. Grass is no greener anywhere else. Aussie is or could be richest country in the world but its not because of dumb leadership. Talking to the boys in the mines earning 100 thousands per year in WA , same thing as down town Hamilton or Ngaruawahia etc , houses over priced interest rates high , builders and mateial in short supply and still takes 30 + years to pay off. It aint now different . NZ you can atleast escape the riff raff on the weekends and go fishing or something and actually catch something🤣
I agree. That's why I live here. We don't however have to live, earn, store wealth and invest in the same country
This government in New Zealand calls the people in this country Customers, we have an idiot in charge that wants to run this country like a business. Even though he is a failed businessman that lined his pockets real well, also has many properties that he rents out and just recently gave a subsidy to people that rent out properties. So this is the climate in this country, where everything has been turned into a money making scam. The road cones are just another form of bureaucratic nonsense in order to make money as Health and Safety became a significant political football allowing a new set of rules and layer of paperwork. The making money part is the cost of each road cone, which is $69NZ and in one street where one hundred meters of roadworks was done I counted two hundred and forty seven road cones, so if you want to know what a scam looks like, this is it.
Blame lefties at work safe for that. Not the contractors.
Auckland used to be the City of Sails. Should be called City of Cones.
“I can’t believe we don’t have rail connection to the airport”? Ummmm you realise it can be an 8hr wait at our emergency departments? How about more doctors, more wards, more nurses than public transport to the airport???
Yeah NZ is not limited to be bad in only one discipline
Haha. Under this government! No chance.
Who would be taking trains to the airport or from with all their baggage?
We can have good infrastructure and good healthcare at the same time.
@@kimberfan1 Well Nicola is firing everyone
I am an immigrant from Germany, and I find life here to be much harder than in Germany. The cost of living is significantly higher, and housing is extremely expensive. Renting is also disproportionately costly. Six months ago, I became dependent on social welfare due to a work accident, and now I’m really struggling because the social system here is very poor compared to Europe. What I currently receive from WINZ to live on is far from sufficient. I would like to return to Germany but cannot because I don’t want to be separated from my son. The waiting lists for social housing are so long that I am currently living in my car, as my savings have run out.
I will not encourage any one past 50 to migrate to NZ unless you have sufficient funds to buy a home mortgage free and prepare to downgrade and take on a minimum pay job.
You overlooked an important point - European countries want to preserve /retain their unique european culture, language, education and western civilisation itself. Immigrants from other places bring noticeable changes, often alien and disturbing.
Nobody questions ethnic preference when it’s Jewish or Korean people. For some reason white races are required to be ethnically replaced though. This guest is a really awful person
Spoonley knows what the implications are he is just being disingenuous because he is anti-white.
Yes yes yes . Preserving your people is very important. If you can, go over to X, there you will see just how bad the UK really is. I am a pacific islander and we moved here to nz to provide a better future for our families. We came and lived the laws of nz and follow the rules like everyone else. When migrants or refugees start saying we need a muslim state or to implement their own sharia laws into our Governemnts then that's when I have a problem with them. UK, Germany, Sweden are suffering under the extensive number if refugees, illegals coming in at the cost of the taxpayers!!! those who follow the rules are fine but those who aren't need to leave and never come back Sadiq Khan and Keir Starmer are causing so much havoc. The polish prime minister is out here looking out for his people. Mind you with all the island men and women I'm sure they'll be able to throw those who try to overrun both the place we call home on their damn boats and tell them to farq off with their backwards laws of sharia.
I am all for the preservation of your people😇😇
😂😂😂 Europeans made their bed now they need to deal with it
Also Nz immigrants come mainly come from the pacific. Where as European immigrants come from Africa as in Middle East, Sudan etc war torn countries. Just like USA’s immigrants mainly come from South America filled with gangs, sex trafficking and drugs. The immigrants we have enter Nz are not the same as those western countries.
NZ doesn't need to take in many refugees, but we do take in immigrants with qualifications. It make a difference.
If a Kiwi wants to live/work/retire in SE Asia, citizenship/permanent residence is not on the table. Workers can and will come to NZ without citizenship/permanent residence being on the table.. something you will NEVER hear being discussed because people want to pander to their own wishes...
thailand at present has a great 5 year visa for online workers (self sponsored too fir online entrepreneurs) to spend offshore earnings in a very much cheaper place. geoarbitrage heaven.
sadly often it’s racism. especially for lower educated and untravelled folk. i spent 20 years outside nz as an expat. but the minute someone outside the area i was in did something bad the colour of my skin turned me - in the eyes of many of the host country - an economic migrant.
@@trailrunningexperience496 and do they lead to permanent residence and citizenship.. and same price hospital treatment as Thai's ?
@@trailrunningexperience496 I have a second home and small farm in Cambodia even a 7 year old Khmer daughter but I can never get permanent residence.. please explain that ?
That man should never be called an expert on anything to do with immigation 😂
And you're not an expert on spelling
Man I was thinking this , I was thinking - please don’t let this man anywhere near the country’s decision making 😂 we already have problems with leaders all over the world
HOUSING GAMES have broken kids dreams and pushed prices / rent up to make living in nz to expensive
Maybe they needed better dreams than just wasting their lives working for decades paying off houses under the illusiuon of material progress anyway?
@@MajorDrama1
You’re guilty of making the same materialist assumption that housing is a commodity.
It is actually the foundation of family life. Having a permanent and secure place to raise a family reduces stress on relationships. An address that remains constant for friends and family strengthens ties, and that home becomes an anchor in the community.
Children grow up with other families in stable housing and suburbs become an extension of the home. Community builds up around this constancy, and having a core group of unchanging families becomes a support structure for others who come and go.
People set down roots and develop a stronger sense of place and identity. They are more involved in volunteer organisations and local council because they have tangible links with the people they serve.
But materialists don’t like this. It speaks to roots and home and tradition and must be destroyed at every stage lest the proles forget that they are supposed to be interchangeable economic units.
@@pressme71nz Died laughing. Guilty eh? A serious charge indeed my friend! Would seem that you have appointed yourself the arbiter of wrongthink?! Your cosy little world sounds a bit like some romantic historical notion of NZ as we imagine it to have been in the late 1930s? If housing was the "foundation" of it all, then why do some areas with enough houses prosper and others wither and fail? I would argue that it's because, while we do obviously need shelter to prosper, communities are primarily the product of people and high quality tribes build high quality communities. Houses are whatever we choose them to be. They come and they go - As do those who pass through them. All this other stuff that you erect/construe beyond that is really just nostalgia for a world thats long been and gone
Most of the immigrants that have come into Europe have been unskilled and do not even speak the language. They add little to the economy and live on welfare.
Those that do work are in things like agricultural labouring, this season demand for labour can be met with a seasonal fixed term visa program.
NZ takes 1.5k of refugees a year Merkel took 1.5 million displaced persons, Germany doesn't have a population 1000 times NZ.
I am from Australia and our refugee intake has 80% of them still dependant on welfare 5 years after arrival, this is a government figure.
Banks want to lend for housing as the required capital requirements are less than other loan types.
The Basil Banking accord has capital requirements based on risk weighting against assets (loans).
Lending for housing allows the banks to make more loans with a given capital requirements and hence higher return on equity than other loan types.
Immigrants should not be entitled to full benefits. No taxes paid no services. They should pay for access.
Who is an immigrant?
Simple, those who didn't create and build the nation, but come to enjoy the spoils of the nation having paid no tax to the country as an ancestral collective.
How about everyone should be working to their 65 and have no access to benefits, regardless!
Then, statistics will reveal who will stay and build Aotearoa.
Well up until 2015 retired people from china who moved here got full nz pension and full chinese pension whereas anyone from aussie or uk has their pensions seized by our government
@@rainajackson7878 Anyone who wasn't born here.
We don't have much illegal immigrants, so we're probably not going to see the same pushback.
Young people are leaving because of the rent/property prices. Immigrants are having the same issue.
Despite an increase in the number of dwellings over the past 40 years, the dwelling supply has not kept up with the demand due to both population growth and decreasing household sizes. This means there are fewer people per dwelling than in 1980s, but not enough additional homes to meet the rising demand. Leaving nz with a shortfall of about 900k dwellings compared to what’s needed.
Demanding more immigration, while not addressing this shortfall in dwellings is slowly killing nz for young people
@@elliottmarshall1424 immigration is not the fix, I agree. That’s not addressing the root issue: Houses should not be used as a financial tool or savings account to protect your money from inflation. The inflation of currency needs to stop, we need a money that retains its value so people with salaries are not disadvantaged against asset holders.
Broken money - Lyn Alden.
@@edawg654 We need money that inflates, it's the reason why the west is so rich, because there's always money to borrow. People have other options, stock market, gold, crypto and other assets. But that should never be money.
Yes, property is a bottle neck, it steals value from the people actually creating value. I've heard some crazy ideas, like getting rid of income taxes and replace it with property taxes. Which would force people to sell property to those actually earning all the money
@@edawg654immigration plays an important part to the root issue though. It drives demand high to keep property pricing high
And sadly we both know the financial system wont change.
@@edawg654exactly, the ridiculous money printing has caused too much inflation. This means you can't just keep your money in cash and have to buy assets to protect it from inflation. And houses are the safest investment. I don't like the system but it's the reality.
I get left wing and socialist vibes from this professor. It is common for those who work in education to support Marxism.
NZ is a covert socialist state.
eah fck that shit right off aye😉
Why did you expect from a professor of sociology 😂?
I think you dont understand what sociology is! It's not socialism!! @@newafricanforum
@janbyres1099 My ex did social work course at massey. This dude was one of the professors there, maybe 10 years or so ago..I didn't suggest sociology was communism...but it damn rime. Most liberal arts professors are indeed communists...and I know a few from Massey I have even audited a few courses with them, it is communism through and through .... but that's no secret anymore.
I am an expat from Colombia, I have found New Zealand very challenging lately with the cost of everything but no country is perfect I’d go back to Colombia but what I love about New Zealand is how calm is Auckland feels like a small city I am skilled but I get paid more in other jobs I know the New Zealand work culture is completely different from the American culture is all about the balance of life but at the same time this has created problems of things going up , I consider closing the shops earlier makes things very limited and the small amount of population makes it even harder and not enough skilled workers here has made me realise there’s not much variety.
Sovereign wealth fund for the country. Western countries need to realise that they have to diversify their income streams away from taxing their population to death. Use the countries natural resources to generate wealth to avoid high taxation. Other countries do it. Why not NZ and the rest of the west?
What " natural resources " are you referring to ?
This conversation was insightful, but it’s crucial to discuss the groundbreaking aspects of a country or nation. We need to ask ourselves: "How independent are we in pursuing our goals?" "What resources do we have to achieve those goals?" and "Do we favor a centralized government or a more regionalized approach?"
I assert that comparing New Zealand with Denmark, rather than Sweden, is more relevant. There are valuable lessons we can draw from both nations, but we must focus on what makes New Zealand unique and how we can build on that foundation.
Cause the money is crap and the cost of living is way to high , you can’t get ahead
Same as everywhere else.
Well the Coalition won't increase your wages
@@alistermacpherson7120 both party’s are crap for the working class
@@alistermacpherson7120 they not here long , , Luxon be sitting on the side even with his majority
europe is not anti-immigration but is anti-islamofascism which in my view is totally respectful of the concerns of european citizens.
I've just returned to NZ to retire after living and working Europe for the last eleven years and I must say it's lovely to be back.
Welcome back!
its a great question spoonley, how are you going to pay for it all? CGTs and more tax are simply not the answer
its just not clear from overseas examples whether the investors will shift from housing to businesses
spoonley had a whole lot of solutions of increasing immigration and 'diversity' in the name of 'economy', but offered no solutions for the brain drain we have
Immigration, or more correctly, the wrong kind of Immigration is part of the problem.
We get no economic benefit from the parent visa categories, and they shouldn't exist.
Migration of construction workers has caused wage distortions locally, repressing local wages and contributing to qualified New Zealand trained tradies heading to Australia for improved wages and conditions, every single bloke from my school year who went into building now lives in Australia, every single one, all of them.
LVT does everything CGT does, but does it better, a change in this space is overdue when land banking a perfectly good house, even leaving it empty results in a tidy profit in the long term here. If this practice could be discouraged through taxation while giving wage earners some form of tax relief then that would work to reduce some of the distortions currently in the economic environment.
Thanks for sharing this discussion lads. Some useful and eye opening data here. I was apart of that net immigration gain of 155,000 in 2023. Immigrated in on a AEWV and was able to bring my wife and son, straight to residency and so far loving it. May be able to shed some light on why there’s 80,000 people leaving. Better pay in America, less taxes, lower costs of living, better healthcare imo. It all adds up. We knew that going in. However. Super grateful for the opportunity to be here in NZ and I see a ton of potential growth in this still very young country. The people are amazing and very generous. We’ll be here for the long haul baby.
Bloody insightful mate thanks for that. Welcome home haha!
New Zealand’s high cost of living, low wages, and limited opportunities make it unsustainable. After three years of full-time study, I’ve been working full-time as a laborer for three years. It’s not worth it; time to move on.
What did you study? Can you work remotely internationally with your skillset?
Great interview and podcast, amazing. Please keep it up
There are very few countries in the world where big cultural differences have led to a cohesive society. Eg.The massive Islamic migtation to Europe is causing discontent all round. A stronger culture nearly always dominates the weaker culture. The political elite backed by the UN are purposefully destabalising the West by encouraging massive immigration by mainly muslim people. Its causing a very unhappy European population. The so-called economic contribution has not actually eventuated. Just the opposite. It has not worked anywhere and will not. Read up a bit of history. New Zealand's "lifestyle" is no better than many other countries. Pure BS.
Mentioning Far right ,anti immigrant, rainbow tee shirt. Connect the dots.
We have been here for over 22 years, we love it here and very passionate about the country. However we have one issue is that crime and the the law deals with criminals is so bad that it looks like law is encouraging the criminals do go further.
What is the most effective strategy for entering crypto trading if you have around $5,000 to invest, or even if your investment amount is slightly more or less?
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Well the name is 'Evelyn Infurna'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
People not having kids so they import People that have very different cultural values...
Be alot better if we just had a few more kids
Cost of kids is probably holding a lot of people back huh!
The government needs to make it more attractive to have kids.
If we import kids we have to expect different values. Alternatively we could reduce our population and maybe raise the retirement age.
@@keepthechangenzno incentive to do so. 30 bucks a week for ece as end of year tax rebate what the MA arts finance minister dishes out at the moment. when i lived in japan local councils were offering money to young couples to breed. i remember my city mayor at my welcome party telling me he pays a million yen a baby. told me to get on the job! he was well into the kanpai part of the party so not sure if he was legit but the Japan Times listed my city as one of the places incentivising procreation. it obviously didn’t work. i think the population of japan is now in steep decline.
@@gcb4763what more handouts lol.
We have become a country of people working against each other. Some are self reliant and do what they have to,the others dont manage themselves because the tax payer pays the bills. Its self perpetuating. Less govt and rewards for effort
No. More public investment in public infrastructure equals lower costs to do biz, live, and lift productivity. You’ve been distracted from the main game. Private monopolies and commercial banks are bleeding us dry
Paul Spponley he ahorangi he tino whetu i te ao tu tonu atu. E mihi ana Matua. Loved your book on Uncle Rangi Walker.
NZ has lost its culture of the 1970s and before due immigration.
Yes, just one of the many problems of the MASS immigration is that it dilutes and even replaces the Kiwi culture, attitude and way of life.
@@jonjon1842 That's right. And now we've got a bunch of lefties wanting to move to NZ from the States 🤦♀️
Actually, it lost since 1769. When Mr. cook washed up on these shores.
I’d prefer an interviewer who actually can debate rather than say “wow” & “yeah”
When a country locks itself away from the rest of the world for 2 years and then has resulting inflation issues a lot of people are going to leave. It will come good in the next year or so.
@geotruthnz7013 not to mention the billions Labour threw away in a poorly managed cash give away. What a disaster for NZ.
Good luck to those Kiwis moving to Sydney & Melbourne. They will need it. And may the Lord have mercy on their souls...
We already know the future Indian and Muslim population.
Learn Hindi, my friend.
@ did you say shoot the Indi
@@dave24-73 You shooter?
@@dave24-73 You are biased, all our immigrants are well educated English speakers now, especially those from India. We could be getting crazy Americans who can't speak English.
@ suggest you look at the rest of the world, I’m not biased, I’m just pointing at the elephant in the room, if you can’t see it, or you are one of them that’s not really my fault. NZ has rapidly declined in recent years and a good part of it is due to migrants.
My father arrived in NZ in 1949 and they were going to live at Picton as it had the best weather then and catch the underground to Nelson for work lol nothing has changed, they stayed on the boat and went straight to Nelson.
Thankyou Paul for providing positive vision for New Zealand’s future such as ‘clean and green tech’ based on OECD country examples. Thank you Luke.
New Zealand sux 😢
The problem is 100,000 people annually for the last 20 years had crippled our infrastructure and had inflated house prices and cost of living,NZ is just a stepping stone to Aussie!
Things arent much better in Aussie these days either. In many Australian cities the housing crisis is even worse than in NZ. Kiwis should really be looking further afield for a better lifestyle. SE Asia for example.
So you would have us believe that an emeritus professor on all things immigration, whos been writing on the topic for decades, and consultant expert to government, somehow mysteriously has no idea about the causes and reasons behind one of the most remarkable migration stories of our nation's history?
555 comments! It's great he gave so many people a chance to respond to the prevailing wind direction in academia. Clearly, it's not blowing in the same direction as for the rest of us. It's been blowing the wrong way there for way too long.
There definitely needs to be a tax on all immigrants and it needs to be on a sliding scale according to age and if you arrive here at 65 that tax needs cover infrastructure, healthcare, and superannuation to the age of expected death. This must be a tax not an investment.
Immigrants will then leave.
Can you explain the word " rentier" as I have never seen it before, and what exactly do you mean?
I an NZ born citizen.I am leaving in a few weeks due to no employment.Unable to find even employment even in low skill jobs,usually filled by new immigrants, employers aren't interested in kiwi workers, to keep wage bill at minimum wage.Due to inconsistent job market I have not had any children because of it.A lot of new immigrants who have NZ passports are leaving for Australia or other countries.I paid my student loan and so should everyone else.
Just found your program. Wonderful ideas and insights. Will certainly keep listening
I think the thing that Kiwis need to understand is that rich people are not bad. Judging by the books behind you, you have laterally bought into this idea at least some. The idea that someone is inherently bad because of their wealth, is like someone is like saying they are inharently bad because of their skin color. I know that Kiwis dont like when people come here and tell us that we are wrong, but sometimes we are wrong. There are plenty of evil ways to become rich but there are also many honest ways to becoming rich. For example hard work, good drive, the ability to manage your money well, managing time well, being efficient, not blowing it all immediately...If we exclude the hyper rich, I link generally poor and rich people to their spending habbits and abbility to actually save their money. Saving a little emergency money is literally so important and smart to do. Why does nobody bother about doing it then? The problem is that people do not have good spending habbits, they do not have the ability to save money for a rainy day. Instead, they want to take the money from people who are able to manage their money and save it. Is that fair? Is it fair that people who work hard, and have enough self control to save their their money, manage their time well, dont let addictions rule their wallets, and make good life decisions should pay for the people who dont master their own character, and blow all their money as soon ss they get it? It seems that the majority of New Zealanders would rather point the finger at rich and say bad, and poor means hero. Its identity polotics. I do blame the super rich for plenty of problems but that is a separate topic. I comepletely disagree with the idea that if you have two people, same job, same pay, same opportunities. One makes really good decisions, saves a bit every week, and becomes upper middle class after 30 years deserves to to pay for the one who blows everything they ever do and doesnt make wise decisions.
People in new zealand use identity politics to just assume rich people are bad. So no wonder "rich" people want to leave. They want to spend their hard saved money wisely!
I grew up poor, my perents lived in actual poverty. They slowly became wealthy through hard work, and saving their money. They gave to needs, helped around the world, started schools and health centers around the world. Gave to the comunity in real needs like food, housing, and jobs, directly meeting the needs of people. After coming back to new Zealand, my mum wanted to retire and invite a lot of people into a community that she took the financial burden of. She was met with so many people trying to get whatever money they could off her, sueing her for money and generally causing a ridiculous amount of lies and gossip about her.
Btw, thank you for the video, i agree with what your going for there. It just was ammusing that intelligent men like yourselves are so baffled as to what could be causing people to leave New Zealand. Gernerally, if youre smart or rich, the fashion is that you're supposed to be disliked.
Anyways, much love!
Being wealthy and hated isn't quite the same as being poor and hated.
Sometimes people choose to be poor. It's just easier.
Some people don't want what you have.
Freedom comes at a cost. You may not be able to keep up with the Jones and won't be getting an Xmas card, yet that doesn't matter I never really liked the Jones. Not because their bad, just different.
There is nothing better than a good night's sleep. Staying in ya pj's all day. Or a mince and cheese pie on a cold day enjoying the fact ya don't gots to be anywhere doing anything except eating and enjoying that pie.
To be fair it was hard work to get to this bliss in my life. Poor? Probably by Jones standards. Yet by the standards of the only person who counts, me. I'm the wealthiest woman alive. ❤
People I know who left the country after the election were worried about the right wing authoritarian government, we all should be!
Excellent thought provoking podcast!
Certainly gets you thinking!
The reason young Kiwi's in there 20s are leaving is due to the cost of living compared to income (even though house prices havd risen 80% here in Australia in the last 3yrs). Though, if they have student loans, I'd be cautioning them to pay it off because, there is nothing like home.
If you are going to reference Sweden, put it in context. Sweden is an export-oriented economy like ours but unlike ours Sweden's economy is highly developed and export-oriented. The country's engineering, pulp and paper, steel, and chemical industries have become internationally prominent, ours are in decline. Sweden is the world's 16th wealthiest country. We are at 37. Not a very good comparison.
NZ geolocation that leads to logistic cost and final price sets the difference between the two and I believe, it should be "import oriented", not "export" (CMIIWW,)
@@arknova_nz you have no understanding of economics. What you propose is like a company buying whatever they want but not actually selling anything or making any income. Sorry your proposal is absurd in the extreme.
@@MaxSpeedNZ is Not quite right; in fact, this is what I see around me: people turn themselves into consultants and work remotely for global clients from NZ (drive the money in). That is the digital economy that many countries are trying to push nowadays. Anything produced in NZ will constantly bump into high labour costs, the Resource Management Act and environmentalism without a scientific foundation (unless you start with significant capital for that opex). You judge too early, mate :)
great pod - he likely comes across to some as a dirty socialist but of course that really means he’s educated and traveled and seen that 30 years of discussion, prevarication and politicisation in nz has led to horrific infrastructure shortfalls. meanwhile developing nations like chile, kenya. thailand vietnam etc have trains from airport terminals to 5 star hotel doorsteps. while auckland has your sister’s ex boyfriend calling in favours to get a lift off as some 20 year old van with unusual stains on the seat sits on the motorway with a pothole induced puncture.
He lives in a bubble as an Academic and someone that clearly hasn't had to struggle financially to get ahead... That's why he is clueless as to why young people especially are leaving in droves for Australia and abroad!
Because of high immigration and the bureaucratic nightmare and exorbitant costs involved with building houses supply cannot keep up with demand, paying for rent let alone the dream of owning their own home and raising a family is near impossible for young people especially in the bigger NZ cities let alone the towns where earning power is less anyway...
They need to interview the types of people that it affects not someone that is cleary blinded by his ideology and lives in an ivory tower.
I remember reading in a local Chinese English language paper, maybe 10 years ago, that Paul Spoonley was quoted as predicting that by about now there would be more folk of Chinese origin living in NZ than Maori. Was well reported in the Chinese community! How has that forecast worked out?
Asian (total, excluding India) and Māori are roughly about 17% each.
But what isn’t acknowledged is that those asians are probably full blooded, while there aren’t even half blood Māori left.
Māori are a remnant population.
Ten years ago, the Chinese economy boomed, and wealthy Chinese wanted to send their money overseas rather than collected by their government. They found NZ property open for overseas buyers to be heaven. Then, the NZ housing boom drove the nation's economy, creating opportunities for developers and tradies. Who are you blaming here?
The government traditionally wastes much of the money they receive from taxes so before we add any more taxes we need to first cut red tape and stop wasteful government spending so that we are more efficient with what we have. This just add more taxes idea is not the answer if it all gets wasted in inefficiency.
we should be lowering taxes to increase the tax base ,make us all wealthy and people will want to live here for the right reasons .you are right about the waste in government spending , fix that and we are half way to solving this countries problems . bring on Elon Musk .
Why the endless conversation about government taxing more???
How about some discussion about them with spending less of other people’s money. 💰!!!!!!
History shows us politicians & bureaucrats are terrible investors & predictors of the future.
I want to go back to Asia
Leave in 5 months
The Thai population is in decline, too. The sociologists there say that Thailand is the only developing country to "grow old before it grows rich." Thailand brought into the overpopulation myth started in the 1970s. While their catholic and muslim neighbors, the Phillipines and Indonesia, kept having babies, due largely to their religious beliefs.
Good for you!! Me to Malaysia cannot wait...
No what we need to do is to encourage and support families that are kiwi to have more children that’s what is needed like Poland and Hungary
17:10 that happened when we had a left wing government
You get these people by giving police and nurses a huge pay rise, stop funding stupidity with tax payer money. Those that drop out of the stupidity movement fill the gaps in nursing and police. Let's face , what good are political scientists and arts degree people in nz and could name more. Am I wrong?
I've done everything you mentioned, except nursing. & I agree with you!
I ❤ NZ. This has happened throughout our history. International scholars and professionals are incentivised by subsidies, idealistic promises, and the prospect of bringing family over once settled. Pacific Islanders, Mainland Chinese, Eastern European, South East Asian, Sub-Saharan African, North African, Indian, Sri Lankan, Mediterranean, Arabian, etc - people from countries where English is a secondary or tertiary language are naturally going to bring their cultures and build a society within this one to AID assimilation. The phenomenom of diaspora as a quantifiable identifier is an emerging factor in these younger cohorts. They are the children and Grandchildren of immigrants, many from countries that were forcibly colonised or have developed adjacently to the Commonwealth realm and her Allies. Cultural Reclamation is a major part of this identity. It no longer matters your place of birth if you are aware of your origins, you are forever rooted to these places. The idea of representing and fully embracing national and cultural pride abroad is more romanticised these days. Throw on a sports shirt and cling to anything kiwiana. Therefore people feel better able to move around with the same motives of their forebearers seeking better conditions. Education and technology has broadened prospects considerably. The issue of retention I feel is greatest where globalisation and local quality of life intersect. Working people like horses to maintain market competitiveness. Squeezing out local commerce by becoming the satellite for large business and companies. The cost of modernisation on a country as isolated and small as ours. Australia is larger, possesses resources high in demand, and has a morally grey relationship with Indonesia, and her benefactors by proxy. Our little Aotearoa New Zealand is rich in moral integrity but also a little too deep in the sand. We need the proactive adaptations of humane practices and mindsets. Consumerism and nationalism is the colour of imperialist regimes that bleed money, obsession with control, short-sighted amd selfish ambitions. The building of mosques and temples, inclusion of more languages into official translations, and all those other wonderful inclusions, are not the end of pur identity. Ask around the world - it is our strength. Together we go further.
U er driver I spoke to said only need to save 30000 get a home back in India and New Zealand not the utopia led to believe with cost of everything
I suppose next we will be told there are no poverty ridden overcrowded cities in India. Never mind that we can see a variety of videos about life in India, anytime we want to. And we can talk with Indians about life, as it is for millions over there. So if he can easily buy a house in India. Then why didn't he? And if he isn't happy here. Then go back to India. That's the obvious answer isn't it?
Well when is he going back to India
NZ prospered in the 50s and 60s with a smaller population. Surley, if eveyone who lives in a community contributes to that community, rather than on life time benefits, then we would produce enough to sustain ourselves. On the one had we're told we need population growth, and on the other hand, we're told the world is over populated. If there were insentives for families to have babies, then the demographic would correct it self. This guy focuses on migration for growth. There is another way.
Part of the issue is commitment to constant growth: the line must always go up.
Nz is a country of vested interests that must not be challenged.
One in three births in the uk are now from mothers born overseas- can you imagine China or India or USA etc allowing this?
The US does have a large immigrant population - legal and illegal - of about 15%. They have a higher birth rate overall.
Any child born in the US is a US citizen.
you're not that bright are you? USA has it higher than here in NZ or in the UK, as for China and India, they are overpopulated nations which run an old archaic system and its not really working as well as ours.
Most people that leave NZ and become financially successful aren't likely to return to NZ because of the FIF tax. Most I know (Kiwi's with US citizenship), including myself are happy to pay NZ taxes on our return but due to FIF, we would end up getting double taxed AND taxed on unrealized capital gains tax each year.
We have always lost our younger demographic to the big one, travel etc, what's new. A lot return but if they aren't looked after when they are here there is no reason to come back.
it isn't only workers that count, it's the impact on GDP. Germany's problem was that the 1 mil added population but neither workers nor contributors to GDP, worse, not to consumers either. Accordingly, it's on the slide. Angela got it wrong.
If you don't have an inheritance in New Zealand you're stuffed. The wealth inequality, housing prices, and incompetent government are outrageous. Last one out turn, the lights off!
I Pay thousands of dollars in tax, and when I made a police complaint regarding a Neighbour dumping stuff into my property and vandalising stuff, the Cops did not do anything and advised I was wasting their time? The same is the case with healthcare I was paying bill in full for IV drips. Nurses were not available for 6 weeks the one I got was scared to do it. level of education is dropping, and the budget is decreasing for education. City councils are always out of budget and poor management always looking to increase rates. All this is breaking back of the average kiwi. Higher cost of living and low wages. People who leave if you ask them will tell you one of the reasons increase in crime, poor health care, education, salary, difficulty finding jobs, and expensive basic food items. lower wages. Rates keep on increasing in double-digit.
Saying it's a lifestyle choice to live here is utter nonsense. Every country has a lifestyle but if everything is so expensive then the pay rates should encourage people to come here as well. If you can't afford a lifestyle then your not coming here it.
Xero had 605k subscribers in NZ at March 31. MBIE estimates there are 546k small businesses in NZ. Looks like saturation to me
They are an international company with international customers!
I believe that is only part of the problem. The whole cycle is supported by multiple ownership sucking up property and pushing more marketplace demand. A factor in high cost is landbanking and materials and labour which, the latter two have had two big earthquakes and covid to force marketplace demand/shortages of building materials and labour. It is not just immigration, that's like blaming homebuyers for a lack of property for sale.
Immigration and unprecedented mass immigration are different things .
Does anyone remember Winston ranting & raving about immigration?
Paul Spoonley is a very good demographer but a poor economist. He makes comments on economic development for which he has no knowledge. Immigration has not provided the economic growth that he has promised for decades.
I think he is sociology professor... most of them are Marxists
He is an idealistic idiot belonging in an idealistic divided world that thankfully is now in the past AKA the previous labour government
What a great video, with a proportional decrease in the working aged population and wages not keeping up with inflation, the govt is going to have to find new sources of income that dont involve further pushing away workers. I learnt a lot from this conversation, and its so great to come across a finance podcast aimed at us kiwis! Subscribed!
You need to sort out your gang problem. Iv been to many Asian countries and it puts them of. As well as the cost of living and how much tax you pay
Means testing is hugely expensive. It also means the state demanding lots of information about you and can restrict how you live. In short, it’s ugly
I have no data to support what I’m about to say but I moved to Australia since 2008 , successful business family growing happily but why do I feel like I have to be a millionaire if I wanted to come back and live in NZ ?
@@crichton269 That's interesting & many contributions to this forum are saying how bad it is in Australia.
I guess everybody would have their own self perception but I hope life is still affordable in NZ . Would love to live there again one day .
I used to be a smoker, I have heard it talked about in many international airport smoking lounges how NZ is the Garden of Eden.
We are
Elephant in the room: No Capital Gains Tax
NZ lacks equality in the tax system and this contributes to growing poverty and homelessness throughout New Zealand.
If you buy a home in NZ for $1.2M and sell it for $2M a few years later..you pay $0 tax of that gain.
If you have a minimum wage job earning $20 a hr, you will pay 30% tax.
NZ is amazing if you are wealthy...but if you did have $5M as an investor thinking of moving somewhere, you could choose NZ...but you could choose nearly every other destination on the planet too...
Years ago, it was 700,000 New Zealanders living in Australia.
What a nonsense regarding Germany being against migrants. Germany had build its country on workers from Italy, Spain, Turkey etc. That started in full in the 1960s, mate.
Nz has to realise fast that its economy is small and relies immensely of export of agriculture ,predominantly dairy not tourism. Nz also has to realise its the best country because of low population. Stop letting in to many people and allow kiwis to enjoy their land. Nz is already diverse and you can still walk down a street and people talk to you just. Keep it that that way and learn from the now sht hole Melbourne where its over populated and no one wants to know you!!
New Zealand has so many problems but all we do is talk about them. These are some of the things we could to do because we need to increase government revenue in order to improve our aging infrastructure and pay for our social services for our aging population
1.Raise the universal superannuation age to 70 in steps but it should be portable .This means many people in their old age can move to poorer countries with a lower cost of living .This will help to reduce the demand on our health department.However we should allow certain categories of people who are unable to work to continue to have access to it from the age of 65 but it must be means tested.
Immigrants should not be able to claim the full rate of superannuation unless they have worked and paid taxes here or a minimum of 20 years.
2.Raise GST to 20% with a reduction in income taxes. Tourists are then taxed higher rate and the increase in revenue will help pay for the services we provide for them
3.Introduce a CGT and also an inheritance tax should be considered.
4.Introduce a Sugar Tax as we have one of the worlds highest rates of obesity and with it a very high incidence of Stage 2 Diabetes
5.Increase the tax on alcohol which is the drug which causes the most economic damage.
These are not radical ideas as many countries have similar laws and have a higher standard of living to us.
To attract doctors
What about nz funding medical school for deserving undergrads?
This has been done in usa on a location basis to get doctors in locations that are unpopular. ( like Alaska).
Pay over 65 year olds to emigrate. Give me $200000 and I will forgo my super and go live in Bali until I snuff it.
What's your account number ?😂
On a serious note, do you think 200k would be enough for the next 20 years plus ? Or you have some other savings ?
200000 plus sold house (proceeds invested). I will live like a king in Bali until clogs are popped. Win win for me and NZ.
Quality, not numbers
As a South African, I can assure you that when there is no electricity and there is no water.... no healthcare... none of this kak will matter. U either a New Zealandar wanting to build a better future or not...
My 2 sons and 6 friends went to Perth, 4 qualified builders, 3 qualified electricians, 1 linesman, all got jobs earning double there salary in NZ. Cheap gas, food cheaper, rent about the same. No hurry to return in the near future. Most took girlfriends as well who had qualifications and all got jobs earning more.
A few important points simply overlooked, Geographically speaking, very low productivity, high wages, Small export base to name a few...
twenty years of dumbing its citizenry down here in God's own ,drone class ????????
The problem with nz is to much immigration at a time. The housing spruikers want high numbers so demand for rental properties are high and buyers. This and low interest rates are the two major causes of high house prices. But high house prices only help a small amount of the population. And doesn’t help the economy. High debt is less disposable income
Impose taxes on real estate speculators especially foreigners. There’s no capital gains tax or any form of taxation to foreigners. We need to protect the locals and improve our fiscal position. That’s the main reason why there is a brain drain here, the citizens have no propensity to accumulate wealth. Those who are working have to pay exorbitant taxes to pay for the benefits payments of those who are just sitting on their butts because they’re depressed or are drug addicts
Why isnt a maximum population figure being talked about for NZ. How many is too many?
You cannot talk about a maximum population figure because it depends on many factors , the main one being the rate of the country's economic growth.And as we live in a capitalist society we need economic growth to maintain are standard of living.
Plants evolved to do many things to make their seeds go further away from their mother plant. It is natural for children to go far. It is Life.
Yes but the Shiply /Helen clarke days didnt look after the up coming apprentices and NZ lost tons of young innovative and hard working people to Aussie and overseas. Most were happy living in Nz but were pushed away. Allot had plans to come back but life then gets in the way with most.
Humans aren’t plants.
There have always been explorers it has always been more usual for humans to stay in close communities.
If everyone split the moment they turned 18, we’d get alienated and fractured families and lose our sense of community…. Sort of what happens now. No coincidence that social wellbeing markers have dropped.
@@pressme71nz Are they not? Human DNA is nearly 80% match to the one of Banana. We are part of Life and we have the same fundamental features of it as all other life forms.
You haven't mentioned those, like many of our Indian immigrants merely use n.z. as a prerequisite to getting to OZ as nz citizens.