Redfin: Housing Affordability Improves but NOT Home Sales
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
- Housing affordability has improved due to the recent decline in mortgage interest rates but so far, that has not caused U.S. home sales to increase. Homebuyer mortgage payments have fallen to a 6-month low (lowest since February) from decreasing mortgage rates but sales haven’t surged because home prices remain high and it’s possible some home buyers are waiting for mortgage rates and/or home prices to fall further.
Good news for homebuyers: there’s nearly 20% more homes for sale and more houses are selling for less than the seller’s asking price which is giving homebuyers more negotiating power.
In today’s video, I share the latest housing market trends for the United States based on Redfin’s latest housing market update (link below).
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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:
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Sources of the Reports I Shared in Today’s Video:
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www.mortgagene...
www.investing....
To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30 yr fixed rate mortgage is around 6.6% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
This video description may contain affiliate links that allow you to easily find the items mentioned in my videos as well as support the channel at no cost to you. Thank you for your support! Jason Walter is a licensed real estate agent and mortgage loan originator with Revest Homes in California (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319).
For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Other restrictions may apply. Equal housing lender.
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I’m waiting for home prices to decrease. I’m not swayed by the election or rates. Prices are my leading indicator!
I don't know when that will happen, but I think there's a reasonably good chance that it will. When it does happen, it will be ugly. I say this as a guy who just bought a house.
Their are a lot of realtors posting on here telling first time buyers " "Buy now or rent for ever" .
Do Your own homework.
Same
No need to wait for prices to go down, just build one from the ground up. Won't that be much cheaper?
@rafaelmariscal9170 no, to build a new house have to pay a lot of permit fees, county inspection fees, fire letter, school letter, soil study, environmental impact study, etc.
maybe the reality has set in that even 1-2% drop in rates won't make a 30 year commitment affordable, especially when accounting for tax, insurance, and ALL the other inflated BS.
Need to reiterate, I will not buy a house till prices come down! Totally inflated thanks to the pump from the government. Much better to rent and get my nice safe return on bonds. Pays for my rent and turns a nice profit!
You’ll be waiting for years. Supply and demand basic economics.
That’s the spirit…. Of a renter
That’s the correct approach to prevent from getting into a scheme on current house sales, which will most likely turn out into a financial nightmare
@@qturner27depends on where.
Supply and demand is how I know prices will go down. Well… are going down. It’s now present tense
@@Murdgroupand yours is the spirit of one immune to nuance
the problem is monthly payment after 20% down is still averagely $700 higher to own than rent, plus insurance, property tax, HOA and maintainess/repair. This 0.5% rate cut means not much to first time home buyer. I would say SFR housing demand will be weak for a while. Refinance or cash out refinance may be back at certain point because people are short in cash.
Interest rates are not the issue. I can refinance when rates are down. The real problem is the asking price. Prices need to return to 2021 levels, which would require a 40% to 50% reduction.
Prices don't "need" to do anything.
Maybe you just need to get a better job and paycheck.
Maybe you should've purchased when they were inflated in 2021.
Everything is over inflated currently, but that's how inflation works. The same house that we say is inflated in 2024, our grand parents probably would've paid 1/5 of today's price for or less
Exactly this, prices have increased a whopping 54% , greed led to using pandemic crisis as excuse to gouge people already hurting, especially those renting
@@user-oy5wk6sg5fsuch an ignorant comment
Wage stagnation since reaganomics has caused housing affordability to be at it’s worst since DEPRESSION, people like you and me me greed is good mentality is the reason,, as long as you’re profiting, who cares if working people are on the street, or elderly or students, right? Plenty of people myself included, worked since my teens, put myself thru undergrad and grad school, cared hospice for parent, only to become chronically ill and lose everything,,, so check yourself w your bs arrogance, bad things can happen to anyone despite hard work and doing all the right things, be grateful not an arrogant azz
Other civilized nations have rental caps in line with average salaries bc they’re wise enough to know when workforce is housed, it helps economy,,, as opposed to American where top 5% hold 95% of all wealth off the backs of the workers and middle class has been decimated
I really dislike real estate industry people who try to lure people into buying when affordability is horrible and prices are THE core of the problem. Realtor and mortgage profiteers letting people get into home at over 28% of their gross... this is awful and inconsiderate of those who will likely be damaged by it.
It’s actually 45-50 percent debt-to-income ratio, lol.
A couple points mortgage rates decrease does not equate to improved housing affordability.
I need couple points mortgage to decrease.
Great data Jason. Given the historical debt accumulation i'd be curious how that has impacted the number of available qualified buyers especially with student loans/ credit agency reporting:looming.
I would be curious too!
This is it. I think investors have been propping up sales for the last two years and they're pretty much leveraged to their absolute limits at this point so rate decreases aren't going to do much for them.
I will buy a house after prices crash 50%. It's coming. Just have to be patient.
I think you're correct, but maybe not the way you think. I don't think prices will drop; I think value will. I think inflation will go crazy and make the absolute number of dollars go up even if the value of the house in oz of gold drops by 1/2.
Nobody cares.
Got your rent for September together yet?
You won't be able to compete with investors.
@@user-oy5wk6sg5f You're a jerk. Go away.
All that's out there is $500K 2 bd 1 bath dumps.
exactly, and all of the real estate industry people try to shame you for continuing to rent
Some similarities to the past there. Rates go down sales keep going down.
I’m curious if we’ll see further improvements given the rise of supply and decrease in rates. Time will tell…
@@JasonWalter1the missing piece is . Unemployment at 5 % by December
Housing affordability in some parts of the country but not California. My bought a Condo investment property in Laguna Niguel in 2002 for $175k. Now these Condo's are in the $500k plus.
FWIW, last Monday my wife and I got 6.375% (very good credit) on a 25% down jumbo loan in So Cal.
@@MrTL3wis congrats!!! Where in SoCal? Rates are dropping keep an eye in it
@@House_hacker_619 Thx, HB.
Rates will go down further next year.
lol improve by like 5% when it’s gone up 40%. Prices need to come down by at least 20% so the median needs to be 320k nationwide. I mean you could also math out a 3-4% roi on 200k for past 5 years to see what the average house should be now. 3-4% was the normal roi on a house not 8-10%.
Too risky to buy at these prices. Could easily be underwater 10-20% within a year. Sellers are still delusional so inventory will begin to rise significantly, I think. By spring, I bet we are in a different environment altogether.
You're "under water" on your money every time you make your rent payment.
@@user-oy5wk6sg5f it is not as straight forward as that. Depends on your current living arrangements, the difference between you rent and the cost of owning a home, and what you are doing with the surplus - including the freedom.
If your rent is cheaper than purchasing and you can save money go for it. If you’re young enough and can continue to live with a parent or parents and save every penny possible even better. I lived with a parent for two years back in 2010 after getting out of the military and saved enough money to be comfortable and purchase a smaller home without having to worry about anything.
@zwatwashdc Here's "the difference".
Average home owner net worth-400k.
Average renter net wort -10k
Yes, it is just that straight forward. . 👍
@@user-oy5wk6sg5f yeah, minus 400K. You don’t own that house, the bank does. You own the debt. Buy now and you could well be the proud owner of more debt than your house is worth. Just FYI, a house is not a good investment, it’s a place to live that hopefully pays a nice dividend at the end. Like if you buy a house for a million and sell it for two million in 30 years you still paid 1 million of principal and 1 million interest, not counting taxes, depreciation, repairs, etc. There is also a risk you bought in the wrong area. You put that same million in the stock market and you invest the modest upkeep on a home of 1000 per month and you have well over 11 million. The gain is bout the same if you invest 200,000 and invest the cost of a mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc., every month. The way things are going, though, a house that costs a million today will cost well over 10 million in 30 years. So there’s that. 🤣
The demand was front loaded... Let that sink in...
The monthly cost to exist in a home are too much. We bought in 2013 and our home pymnt was 1500. Bring back affordable living.
Buying is a total scam especially at these prices the amount you pay in taxes and insurance not to mention premiums far outweigh cost to rent
Obama and Trump had affordable housing I really think government did this on purpose or just don't care. Sad.
The cost to build has doubled in the last 10 years. Could that be why houses are more expensive?
Spending is up because the cost of basic necessities such as gas & groceries how can The Fed even consider that number fully knowing that🙄
Home prices are way too expensive.
So keep renting.
Any money you save on a slightly lower interest rate will just go towards property taxes.
Congrats on the 100k. I’ve always enjoyed your videos. Keep up the good work
Thank you!!
Congrats on 100k
Wow!!!
Thank you Ron!
I dont know what people are expecting. "dropping" mortgage rates havent really dropped much at all. the 30 year fixed, going from 7 percent to 6.5 isnt a big deal. Thats less than a 10 percent drop. Now if we dropped down to 5.5 percent, im sure people will be coming out of the woodwork left and right to buy a house.
In just over 3 months, rates went from around 7.5% to 6.3% last week. However more recently they have gone up to around 6.6%. Below 6% would likely increase demand. Have an awesome Saturday!
The idea that prices will get a big boost as soon as rates drop has been pushed by house salesmen for over a year now
@@SigFigNewton I think demand definitely gets a BIG boost.
But I dont know about prices, that depends on supply which gets impacted by a lot of things such as renting options and new homes becoming available.
@@grownupgaming it’s been pushed sufficiently hard - the idea that it’ll make prices significantly higher- that it might be exactly wrong. When enough market participants agree with each, it is consensus itself that can make the consensus view incorrect
@@grownupgaming in this case that would look like sellers waiting to take advantage of this predicted increase… and then basically all listing in the same year
I really pity those foolish home buyers , some are still out there, they have not bought into FOMO , but there are people who desperately who want to buy, There are also plenty of greedy sellers and agents out there . I have a popcorn bag now that I have all my offloading done .let the games begin.
Wow!!! Nice interest went down, now is the perfect time to buy a home. You need 10k a month for a family to live and now you need $9000 perfect every thing is fixed now BUY BUY!!!🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️. Macdonald is almost bankrupt but is a sign that everything is perfect 🤔be careful people. Remember statistics and always manipulate.
It's not interest rates or home prices I'm waiting for. It's opportunity cost.
My IRR threshold is above the "return" I would get from buying instead of renting where I live. So I put my money elsewhere
Prices will not drop if interest rate cuts start, it’s just going to reignite inflation IMO
This is very true. They may drop, but they'll just raise later. This will be like the 1970's. No one wants to be 'the bad guy' who raises interest rates high enough to actually have an effect.
Unlike the 1970's, we have so much debt now, that when we raise interest rates to calm the inflation, it kills us on interest payments which means we have to borrow more money to pay the interest. Sounds like a death spiral to me.
Rate cuts will create hyperinflation.
New home builders have been buying down rates into the 4’s and they can’t move the inventory.
@@johnnycastaneda2371 I mean bringing it down to 4% while trying to sell 1 mil to the common folks ain't gonna help them move inventory.
@@Baebon6259 National Average new-builds are nowhere near $1 million.
Happy Saturday Jason, enjoy the cooler weather! #LETSGETNERDY
Yes! Have a great day, Steve!
Good Morning, Jason.
Good morning!
headlines say San Diego is up, and hot but I see listings piling up
Most of those listings had been in and out of the market and not forced out sellers. Check out this property listed in Redfin
1006 S 26th St.
San Diego, CA 92113
If you notice this property had been listed in and out since April 2022. The owner or flipper dropped the price 10k. So it tells you they’re aren’t desperate. It’s crappy house in crappy neighborhood.
If you’re waiting for San Diego market to crash good luck. I’m expecting a 3-5% decrease due to seasonality but it’s not a crash. Considering we’re up at least 20% since June 2022
@@House_hacker_619barrio Logan… that a very very ghetto area. I’ve been around there, and scared to even walk around there mid day
@@ReeLSpiritI can tell that house is a flip. A month later after it was bought the house was listed right away. I’m surprised they didn’t list it as rental while waiting for offers. I’ll never buy anything in that location unless it’s 70% off at current market and as long I can cash flow on rent.
Waiting for home prices to decrease - in the Coachella valley, CA. Prices doubles and even tripled in some cities.
There's no one right time for everyone. We bought our current home June 2023, at 6.3% interest rate and at listing price. It's what we wanted, so we can rent out our previous home which covers the mortgage plus small profit. There's no perfect timing, if you are renting you should buy asap regardless. It's not when you get into the market (in this case home ownership), it's how long you been in the market (owning a home)
Congrats!!! I did the same thing. I bought my 1st property in San Diego of June 2009. I turned it into rental in 2012 and moved around because of military orders. I moved back here in San Diego in May 2022 and bought my 2nd house in August 2022. I’m getting 1800 cash flow on 1st property with 6 months to pay it off and my current property has 2 ADU studio which is currently rented and cover the monthly mortgage. Just on the 2nd property I saved over 100k by not paying the mortgage thanks to the ADUs. If I buy and move again I can rent out the main house 3br and 2ba for 3500-4k and that’s my cash flow. Good luck to you and keep doing what you’re doing.
Totally appreciate your reports! Just sent a link to my realtor. Have a house I will be selling in Walla Walla, WA. It was on the market recently for two weeks, with 7 showings, and no offers so I pulled it off the market. Will come back when the interest rates are done going down and the election is over, hopefully with the right guy winning!
Best of luck selling your home and thank you for sharing my video!
Just curious how high are you listing your home? I am from the Walla Walla area and being a local that grew up there I know for sure many houses are way over priced. It is not always about the interest rates but about the price of the homes.
I was excited to start looking at homes again. Then I looked, nope. I’m not taking my money out of an interest bearing CD to buy a home with a deflating value.
Honestly I would focus on the long term appreciation of owning a home vs short term gains of a CD. The interest rate on savings accounts and CDs will come down as the Fed cuts rates.
Well right now getting 5% on 150k plus reinvesting the compounding interest is better. My rent is about 3/4 of what it would cost to maintain a home monthly. It doesn’t make sense now but If I could get a great deal on a home with lower monthly payments it would. Maybe I’ll do a spread sheet to calculate exactly where I need to be.
From now on at the beginning of each video can you tell us how many subscribers away from 100k? exciting stuff! when can we see the play button in the background?
Home values and rates need to lower in order to peak interest, more importantly values.
I am waiting for a wave of foreclosures. Once a ton of foreclosures are hitting the market, that is my indicator to buy.
Sweet plan. Rent for 20+ years to maybe buy a foreclosure at some point. 🙄
Investors will swoop in and intercept all of those.
@@Pragmatist1st I’m not looking to buy a foreclosure, I’m waiting for a signal that it’s a good time to buy. I can be patient. A lot of people are going to lose their shorts in the next decade, especially those who bought recently and don’t have as stable of a job as they think they do.
@FeliPeltier And what, exactly, makes you think you'll somehow end up better off than the rich people who already own and/or are buying eal estate now?
@@user-oy5wk6sg5f I’ve owned a house for 14 years. I’m not trying to be “better off” than rich people. I am going to better my own situation by capitalizing on the people who were dumb and bought, took out HELOCs, or did refis in the last 3 years when they shouldn’t have. I don’t wish ill will on them, but that’s how capitalism works. Dumb money always loses.
Sales have been brisk here for at least a couple of years. Where i came from the mid-upper priced homes are similarly going quickly according to a friend looking to move there.
These national trends are if little use to individual buyers and sellers. What they actually need to look at are the numbers in the regional/local area of their individual interest and in the price ranges they desire. Median numbers are especially misleading unless that's the price point of choice. My area has a median price of $336K. BUT, there are homes in nice areas for almost half of that, and you can go lower if you need to. The highest prices are ~$1,000,000 which works out to a ratio of 10:1 from highest to lowest. There's something for nearly every buyer out there. I haven't done those numbers for anywhere else, but it's easy enough to do for yourself.
The last 11 presidential elections have resulted in seven small increases, and three small decreases, and one neutral so as a historical indicator for economic data on mortgage rate activity, there is no context to dictate good or bad
San Diego +17% new listings yoy. 😳
Agenttroll do you realize we’re up +20% since June 2022😂 and median listing is at $1M. Keep renting 😂
median doesn’t mean squat. Keep getting bent over by Newsom 😂
@@agentcrypto7741 it doesn’t even matter if price crashed to 30-50% your broke azz still wouldn’t be able to afford it anyway. So why you still talking 😂
@@agentcrypto7741 let’s say San Diego market crash do you think I’m going to sell ? 😂 that moldy apartment is really affecting your brain. who do you think is buying?🤔
@@agentcrypto7741your landlord might buy houses and he probably use all that rental money of yours. 😂 for now keep renting and make your landlord rich
Clown hacker been quiet as of late. 😂
That’s sad 😂Until today you’re still a troll 🧌 . I’m glad you still remember me I guess I’m your head.
@clownhacker stupidity is hard to forget sometimes. 😂
agentroll guess who’s making money you or your daddy landlord? 😂Now tell me who’s stupid??😂
Keep renting and have fun living with that moldy apartment
Your boyfriend Ms. Reventure aka “Toby”predicted crash in May 2021 since then how much money did you already throw on rent? 😂
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Good morning!
@@JasonWalter1 almost at 100K👍 Where will you hang your RUclips plaque? Cause you fans wanna see your milestone 🙂
Thank you Steve! Probably on the wall behind me in my office 😀It also was recently painted so goodbye tan.