I enjoy Ryan Hall, especially since he’s lowered the sensationalism on his stream, but Trey treats us like educated professionals. You won’t get a tenth of this level of analysis that Trey provides anywhere else.
I am so glad you did this. This must be discussed. No questions asked I do believe there will be historical hail I do believe this could be a very historic day. I’m so glad you do Contant like this not only for people like me who were very interested in meteorology, but for the public to just Completely understand what we’re dealing with especially today
The left splits today really can’t be underestimated either Given the fact that they will be heading into Oklahoma, where the dry air might help with keeping instability above the freezing layer, and they’re heading into an environment likely with relatively extreme deep layer shear, they may produce very large to even giant hail which can be a massive issue itself Not to mention also that the boundary layer in northern Texas looks more characteristic of southern Brazil
Wow the difference in dews since you recorded this! A 65 dew point just south of Norman ok and 70s dews over temps in the mid 70s at the red river already I think it'll for sure be in place by go time
To everyone in the red zone, don't let your guard down if you don't see much happening by 4 PM, some local WX folks are saying nothing may be firing up until after 6 PM.
Whats up dude? Thanks for the breakdown, i spent the morning dropping alert texts on family & friends in the areas set to see this. Hope you have a great day!
The latest HRRR (16z) looks extremely concerning if that solution stayed pegged and verifies. No convection in North Texas and no initiation until 6-7 pm.
In your opinion did the increase by the NWS today look possible with the models yesterday or was it more of a surprise? Seems like the environment ramped up drastically after the first line of storms moved through TN around midday today.
I think the reason they held off was that they just weren’t sure how the early round would react and how much recovery would occur behind it. Models yesterday were a little all over the place and thus lent some uncertainty to the forecast. Obs going into the afternoon today took away some of that uncertainty, hence the upgrade.
Looks like OKC will be saved by the bell by the earlier forcing arrival in NW TX, cloud cover, and near miss on timing of those off the hook shear and instabilities combining. I knew there was a fly in the pudding when I saw the hold at moderate and a shrinkage of the 15% tor zone with this AM's convective outlook. Here's hoping....that was looking very ominous indeed.
Don’t count anything out yet. Hopefully, yes, early convection and left splits will limit the potential, but this isn’t guaranteed to happen. If it doesn’t, the highest potential is really scary.
Moisture has overperformed by about 5 degrees and is ahead of models by about 1-2 hours, so we may get more moisture to advect northward than anticipated, heightening the severe threat. However, I do believe the left splits into OK will most likely happen, but with more rapid moisture advection than expected, southern Kansas might go big as more robust ingredients may make it up there.
Hey Trey🤜🤛 thanks for another great forecast analysis. Thanks to LLJ, SHEAR value in evening are insane, STP more than 70🤯...but models are still didn't agree how event will performe and in last 3 update they change mind 3 times and right now they don't show left splits in OK but line of supercells from Kansas to Texas so worst case scenario....damn it's like rullete right now and the stakes are people lifes and properies...I hope that it didn't materialize in worst way but everyone will be happy and tornadoes occures only in fields and people will be safe. Wish you great chase and the most important Stay Safe Brother💪
@@ConvectiveChronicles just like I said in older video....atmosphere is more unoredictable and models are incosistent almost all the time and not only in US but in Europe I see this trend also in every forecast 🤷🏻♂️ last three days we had many storms in Poland and forecast were all over the place with intensity or region. Anyway right now we have storms in West of Wichita Falls and most of them already rotating, they are also some left splits but I don't know if they move to OK area that fast or before more storms fire up north but atmosphere there is violitale right now and that's just the beginning....
It was interesting keeping up with the SPC updates over the last 12 hours as they fine tuned things. The flies in the ointment are there but all it takes is one storm to ruin a lot of people’s day. Hoping for the best for residents.
great video. I concur especially with the fact it looks less severe near St. Louis early afternoon as the previous models showed. Considering now to set up south of I-70 out of Terre Haute later in the afternoon. Will see what actual surface maps look like around noon.
Northwest Arkansas resident here. Would love to see a case study for the Chandler to Rogers supercell of 5/25/24 into 5/26/24. ( ruclips.net/user/liveH6uM6RZ0g3g?si=MmBJz0TBU8TUIdbw&t=33838 ) The velocity mapping starting west of Decatur, AR as the hook echo moves into and beyond Centerton is absolutely mind boggling. Then seeing the damage patterns the next morning, you'd think there were 3 to 4 simultaneously running tornadoes.
I like how things are looking right now not a lot of tornadoes rn due to those big storms splitting :) but trey is there still a chance okc will see any significant storms?
Awesome presentation Trey! Could you possibly do a lesson on Radar interpretation, focusing on identifying factors that cause radar artifacts, interference, etc that might give a false interpretation? Basically, how to recognize when the products are wrong or giving false info
Thank you! My next full video series is going to be on radar and satellite, so stay tuned for that! I hope to get going on that at some point after my tour season ends.
In my opinion, Trey did an awesome job in this discussion. He set the expectations and gave an exceptional explanations of the overall setup without relying so much on model data. Wish more on-air meteorologists would give more weight to explaining the weather than relying too much on what model data says.
The models went wacko over the past 12 hours, so there's a lot of uncertainty about details. But, the environment is certainly ripe for a major event. Decisions, decisions... I'm going to decide on my plan by 18Z and hope I chose wisely. There won't be enough time to correct a target area mistake, given the broad area of potential scenarios.
Finally a chase day on my day off! Just got to my staging location in elk city. However, It is certainly bittersweet given how dangerous things are looking. Fingers crossed for tornadoes in open fields and minimal hail damage
Great video. Since this video has came out I believe some this event has uptrended some which in my opinion should warrant a high risk. However, if the spc maintains a moderate risk, it could very easily verify as a high risk. Stay safe everyone!
Looks like other than a few brief tornadoes tonight definitely did not take full advantage of the atmosphere. Could have been a million times worse for sure. Seems like left splits caused a messy storm mode as well as early initiation in southwest Texas. Edited so I don’t eat my words tomorrow. There is a discrete supercell in northeastern Oklahoma and another one in north Texas which are probably the last opportunity for a long track tornado. We shall see
Thank you. For SW/C Ohio tomorrow, you're thinking it's going to be a wind event? As far as tornadoes, are we looking at spin ups? Thank you for your time and help.
Hi Trey. Great job & thank you for another superb discussion! Two questions for you... 1. If a plume of cirrus cloud does translate over northern OK and southern KS, could that create a differential heating boundary in OK - one which may provide the focus for supercell initiation & intensification? 2. If I recall correctly, the supercell that spawned (with the help of a cell merger?) the infamous Joplin EF-5 rated tornado was the product of a left split. Given the potentially insane kinematics & dynamics in central OK, could one of the left split supercells from Texas evolve into a dangerous tornadic supercell during the early evening? Thanks! p.s. I'm not sure if you'll be on the road & chasing, but if you are, I shall wish you a safe & successful adventure!
Thank you! Yes, that differential heating boundary from the cirrus could definitely be a thing and could provide a favored corridor for storms. And while I’ve seen left splits transition into right moving supercells before, it seems to be fairly rare to me. Kind of up in the air on that one.
KGCM just northeast of Tulsa reporting 77 dewpoint as of 11:30AM CDT. Deepening surface low already in eastern CO with winds across OK shifting SE to SSE. Seems alarmingly ahead of the model progs. What's your take there Trey? (BTW this channel is insane, keep it up!)
I don’t want any more spring / It is easier to name the states that have not had any damage so far / I have noticed that storms in the spring are not like storms in the summer / it seems like summer storms have a lot more electricity with them // could that be from the fact that there is so much more heat in the atmosphere in July as opposed to April? Thank you for keeping us safe safe
Generally, lightning production increases with increasing instability, so the higher-instability environments of summer are perfect for ample lightning.
@@ConvectiveChronicles As spring turns to summer, the storms are not so much with tornadoes as they are straight line winds/heavy rain and crazy lightning // the two kinds I remember growing up in July, August, and September were those that would occur in the middle of the afternoon //Our mother would make us get out of the pool because of lightning // then, those noisy nighttime storms that terrified my sister and myself / thank you again, this spring, your channel has helped me feel not so much anxiety and at the same time learning more
This is a difficult event to forecast or to even know what will happen. The high risk event wasnt quite what it could have been mostly due to too many storms convecting. This is almost the exact opposite, i think the most likely failure mod is lack of storms instead of too many. Obviously parameters are off the charts, supercell composites are showing numbers over 50 plus, with sig tor parameters and cape off the charts as well. Any storm that does develop in this environment certainly has the potential to cause destruction. Its tough to say what will happen, I personally think the Moderate Risk is the right call at the moment, it catches peoples attention without having to pull out the pink sharpie and have outrage because it fails. I believe the SPC simply believes if the environment proceeds in a favorable manner, and storms start firing rapidly that pink sharpie will be on the map. Probably between OKC and the Kansas border. This could be a dangerous afternoon depending storms proceed
Looks like western Kentucky is right in the sights again for Sunday. I can't stress how much I appreciate your work. No clickbait, no super saturated reaction thumbnails, just science.
Do you think it's possible that given today's extreme environment that a left split could recover? It seems at least possible that favorable storm mergers could cause those storms to ramp back up.
Yep...that's the OUN one. Weird looking thing. One of the other one's I checked was looking like the letter Z or something. haha. Strange flows up there, sky writing.
Hey y’all, seeing a lot of anxiety in these comments and just wanted to remind you that more than 90% of tornadoes are EF1 or EF2. There have been close to 1000 tornadoes this year and less than 1% have been EF4, 10% are are ef2-ef3. Your average house/building is designed to withstand 110 mph winds, meaning that your average home will be able to withstand most tornadoes. Hope this comforts someone.
@@seanchristopherward8205 if it helps I went through an EF2 without a basement and was totally fine. It is scary but I assure you, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO DIE. What you are afraid of is the unknown, and not knowing how things will turn out. Be optimistic, be prepared.
I'm very concerned with this event with how concerned even trained meteorologists are and now even though we are not most at risk dfw is in tornado and especially wind and large hail risk ugh. And my friend is in Lawton. This isn't looking good at all. Anyway I'm going to shut up now and watch. Thank you trey, stay safe today chasing!
It's possible if moisture keeps advecting up into OK and KS. Moisture is really all that is needed as all the other ingredients are in place. YET, regardless of it being HIGH or MDT, it is still expected to be a particularly dangerous situation.
@@ThistleKing Yes, indeed. I don't know much about weather but it seems that that means it's a good thing? Good in the sense that there's less likely dangerous tornadoes in OK?
Heavenly Father, we come to You today to ask for Your protection and safety as severe weather threatens our surroundings. We pray that You will calm the storms and shield us, our loved ones, and our community from harm. Give us the strength to face any challenges and the wisdom to take all necessary precautions to stay safe. We trust in Your mighty power and loving care to see us through this time. Amen. ✝️🙏
This is going to be one hell of a day for sure. If these storms stay super discrete we are looking at incredibly bad tornadoes in a lot of populated areas if the models keep being right. This is not good and this is definitely one of those days that chaser congestion will be BAD. Trey, you guys probably aiming to stay North of the Metro today or start West and just follow one or 2 of the giant likely tornado producing cells? Regardless, this is stupidly robust and it's wild that this pattern and craziness even on the long terms ensembles and CFS ones too keep this active still at LEAST to June 5th.
PDS tornado warning coming up for N Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas. SPC 2000Z update still hasn't dropped. I have a feeling it's going high risk...
Thank god, came to my rescue. Needed your opinion.
This Is probably the best channel out there
Thank you!!
Easily….one day him he will stream
Close third.
Ryan yall, Hall is close
I enjoy Ryan Hall, especially since he’s lowered the sensationalism on his stream, but Trey treats us like educated professionals. You won’t get a tenth of this level of analysis that Trey provides anywhere else.
Cool , just found this. I’m getting sick of the NOAA website. Apparently they laid off the website designers in the mid 90’s :)
I am so glad you did this. This must be discussed. No questions asked I do believe there will be historical hail I do believe this could be a very historic day. I’m so glad you do Contant like this not only for people like me who were very interested in meteorology, but for the public to just Completely understand what we’re dealing with especially today
Thank you!
Love your channel, Trey. My favorite go-to for technical analysis. Thanks!
Thank you so much!
The left splits today really can’t be underestimated either
Given the fact that they will be heading into Oklahoma, where the dry air might help with keeping instability above the freezing layer, and they’re heading into an environment likely with relatively extreme deep layer shear, they may produce very large to even giant hail which can be a massive issue itself
Not to mention also that the boundary layer in northern Texas looks more characteristic of southern Brazil
Wow the difference in dews since you recorded this! A 65 dew point just south of Norman ok and 70s dews over temps in the mid 70s at the red river already I think it'll for sure be in place by go time
Way to watch!👏👏👏
@@manifestingbeautifullife2187 ?
That’s some rapid moisture advection, huh?
On the 80+ dew points: As someone who lives in Corpus Christi, you're welcome? I'm sorry? All I know for sure is I'm sweaty!
Those dew points are OUTRAGEOUS. I live in the high desert, so humidity and I don’t mix well. Stay cool!
I've been sweating all week here in SE OK.
Are you thirsty? Take a breath, get a drink.
I can’t imagine what it’s like down there; those dews are obscene!
@@KrisOsterhout Thanks! I don't know what I'd do without air conditioning
@@JanicePhillips I hadn't heard that one before and am stealing it!
Thanks for the update. I’m in Colorado on vacation right now so hope my south central Kansas house will still be there when I get back 😂
Thanks as always trey. I wish you were my local weather man😂
Tornado near Mayfield my god
34:14 Another line of storms for Fremont we just had a Derecho yesterday morning now we get this? What the heck is happening.
One town in Alabama had 2 F5s in 1 hour, in 1974. Mother nature doesn't mess around.
Thanks Trey. Watching. Family in Lawton OK and DFW.
To everyone in the red zone, don't let your guard down if you don't see much happening by 4 PM, some local WX folks are saying nothing may be firing up until after 6 PM.
This is starting to look underwhelming :)) Yayyyy!
Whats up dude? Thanks for the breakdown, i spent the morning dropping alert texts on family & friends in the areas set to see this. Hope you have a great day!
Thank you! Awesome; glad you were able to get the word out!
The latest HRRR (16z) looks extremely concerning if that solution stayed pegged and verifies. No convection in North Texas and no initiation until 6-7 pm.
Thank you Trey, we really appreciate your measured and scientific approach to forecasting. ☺️
Thank you!
20:46 nailed it
In your opinion did the increase by the NWS today look possible with the models yesterday or was it more of a surprise? Seems like the environment ramped up drastically after the first line of storms moved through TN around midday today.
I think the reason they held off was that they just weren’t sure how the early round would react and how much recovery would occur behind it. Models yesterday were a little all over the place and thus lent some uncertainty to the forecast. Obs going into the afternoon today took away some of that uncertainty, hence the upgrade.
Looks like OKC will be saved by the bell by the earlier forcing arrival in NW TX, cloud cover, and near miss on timing of those off the hook shear and instabilities combining. I knew there was a fly in the pudding when I saw the hold at moderate and a shrinkage of the 15% tor zone with this AM's convective outlook. Here's hoping....that was looking very ominous indeed.
theres still alot of uncertainty, its not set in stone yet.
@@SF48292 we'll see what a few more hours and increasing temperatures will bring
Don’t count anything out yet. Hopefully, yes, early convection and left splits will limit the potential, but this isn’t guaranteed to happen. If it doesn’t, the highest potential is really scary.
Hail and Damaging Wind: The Musical Pt. 2 Electric Boogaloo
Moisture has overperformed by about 5 degrees and is ahead of models by about 1-2 hours, so we may get more moisture to advect northward than anticipated, heightening the severe threat. However, I do believe the left splits into OK will most likely happen, but with more rapid moisture advection than expected, southern Kansas might go big as more robust ingredients may make it up there.
Good analysis for a meathead
Sometimes people make small talk and mention the weather. Then I blow their minds. Thanks Trey!!
Chasing today. Very excited for todays event. Hopefully they miss the cities but man Oklahoma has been getting slammed
Good luck and be safe!
Hey Trey🤜🤛 thanks for another great forecast analysis. Thanks to LLJ, SHEAR value in evening are insane, STP more than 70🤯...but models are still didn't agree how event will performe and in last 3 update they change mind 3 times and right now they don't show left splits in OK but line of supercells from Kansas to Texas so worst case scenario....damn it's like rullete right now and the stakes are people lifes and properies...I hope that it didn't materialize in worst way but everyone will be happy and tornadoes occures only in fields and people will be safe. Wish you great chase and the most important Stay Safe Brother💪
Thank you! Yeah, models have been all over the place with this one
@@ConvectiveChronicles just like I said in older video....atmosphere is more unoredictable and models are incosistent almost all the time and not only in US but in Europe I see this trend also in every forecast 🤷🏻♂️ last three days we had many storms in Poland and forecast were all over the place with intensity or region. Anyway right now we have storms in West of Wichita Falls and most of them already rotating, they are also some left splits but I don't know if they move to OK area that fast or before more storms fire up north but atmosphere there is violitale right now and that's just the beginning....
It was interesting keeping up with the SPC updates over the last 12 hours as they fine tuned things. The flies in the ointment are there but all it takes is one storm to ruin a lot of people’s day. Hoping for the best for residents.
great video. I concur especially with the fact it looks less severe near St. Louis early afternoon as the previous models showed. Considering now to set up south of I-70 out of Terre Haute later in the afternoon. Will see what actual surface maps look like around noon.
Northwest Arkansas resident here. Would love to see a case study for the Chandler to Rogers supercell of 5/25/24 into 5/26/24. ( ruclips.net/user/liveH6uM6RZ0g3g?si=MmBJz0TBU8TUIdbw&t=33838 ) The velocity mapping starting west of Decatur, AR as the hook echo moves into and beyond Centerton is absolutely mind boggling. Then seeing the damage patterns the next morning, you'd think there were 3 to 4 simultaneously running tornadoes.
Trey comin' in clutch with another W video 🔥
I like how things are looking right now not a lot of tornadoes rn due to those big storms splitting :) but trey is there still a chance okc will see any significant storms?
There is a small storm just west of the city, but it’s looking quite anemic
There he is!!!! Been waiting all morning. Thanks Trey!
Wonder if lower Ohio Valley will get a wind driven moderate risk tomorrow?
Quite possibly given the robust moisture differentials.
Depends on the conventions of inundation of the upper level low NE of the amplitude feature.
It’s possible
Thank you so much for breaking everything down for us.
You are awesome. I love your forecasts. You explain everything. 💨🌩️🌪️
Thank you!
Nice forecast! The left movers, mainly one left mover, killed the environment for western Oklahoma from possibly having long-track tornadoes.
Thank you! As a resident, very thankful that the OKC metro was spared
Awesome presentation Trey! Could you possibly do a lesson on Radar interpretation, focusing on identifying factors that cause radar artifacts, interference, etc that might give a false interpretation? Basically, how to recognize when the products are wrong or giving false info
Thank you! My next full video series is going to be on radar and satellite, so stay tuned for that! I hope to get going on that at some point after my tour season ends.
Exceptional content and forecast breakdown! Very helpful especially on a day like today.
Thank you so much!
In my opinion, Trey did an awesome job in this discussion. He set the expectations and gave an exceptional explanations of the overall setup without relying so much on model data. Wish more on-air meteorologists would give more weight to explaining the weather than relying too much on what model data says.
Thank you so much!
The models went wacko over the past 12 hours, so there's a lot of uncertainty about details. But, the environment is certainly ripe for a major event. Decisions, decisions... I'm going to decide on my plan by 18Z and hope I chose wisely. There won't be enough time to correct a target area mistake, given the broad area of potential scenarios.
Finally a chase day on my day off! Just got to my staging location in elk city. However, It is certainly bittersweet given how dangerous things are looking. Fingers crossed for tornadoes in open fields and minimal hail damage
Great video. Since this video has came out I believe some this event has uptrended some which in my opinion should warrant a high risk. However, if the spc maintains a moderate risk, it could very easily verify as a high risk. Stay safe everyone!
Looks like other than a few brief tornadoes tonight definitely did not take full advantage of the atmosphere. Could have been a million times worse for sure. Seems like left splits caused a messy storm mode as well as early initiation in southwest Texas.
Edited so I don’t eat my words tomorrow. There is a discrete supercell in northeastern Oklahoma and another one in north Texas which are probably the last opportunity for a long track tornado. We shall see
Looks like another setup where things really ramped up after dark
Crazy you mentioned the splits and NW TX convection and sure enough David Payne and them keep saying it on air lol
Models playing catch up on moisture. Also, hatched tornado introduced for tomorrow
Thank you. For SW/C Ohio tomorrow, you're thinking it's going to be a wind event? As far as tornadoes, are we looking at spin ups? Thank you for your time and help.
Yes, I suspect it’ll be mostly a wind and spinup tornado threat any time from late morning through afternoon
Muskogee, OK ready for the fireworks! (NE OK)
I'm well outside of the highest risk areas but it is still icky outside. Really hot and humid. It just feels wet outside. Nasty.
So, hope for afternoon rain to sully the environment. Gotcha. Thanks again Trey❤
Hi Trey. Great job & thank you for another superb discussion! Two questions for you...
1. If a plume of cirrus cloud does translate over northern OK and southern KS, could that create a differential heating boundary in OK - one which may provide the focus for supercell initiation & intensification?
2. If I recall correctly, the supercell that spawned (with the help of a cell merger?) the infamous Joplin EF-5 rated tornado was the product of a left split. Given the potentially insane kinematics & dynamics in central OK, could one of the left split supercells from Texas evolve into a dangerous tornadic supercell during the early evening?
Thanks!
p.s. I'm not sure if you'll be on the road & chasing, but if you are, I shall wish you a safe & successful adventure!
Thank you! Yes, that differential heating boundary from the cirrus could definitely be a thing and could provide a favored corridor for storms. And while I’ve seen left splits transition into right moving supercells before, it seems to be fairly rare to me. Kind of up in the air on that one.
TY for the update, Trey. 🌩 I'm hoping for those failure modes.
Great briefing Trey, as always.
Thank you!
KGCM just northeast of Tulsa reporting 77 dewpoint as of 11:30AM CDT. Deepening surface low already in eastern CO with winds across OK shifting SE to SSE. Seems alarmingly ahead of the model progs. What's your take there Trey? (BTW this channel is insane, keep it up!)
Thank you! Moisture definitely does seem to be ahead of schedule and should continue rapidly advecting northward with time
I don’t want any more spring / It is easier to name the states that have not had any damage so far / I have noticed that storms in the spring are not like storms in the summer / it seems like summer storms have a lot more electricity with them // could that be from the fact that there is so much more heat in the atmosphere in July as opposed to April? Thank you for keeping us safe safe
Generally, lightning production increases with increasing instability, so the higher-instability environments of summer are perfect for ample lightning.
@@ConvectiveChronicles
As spring turns to summer, the storms are not so much with tornadoes as they are straight line winds/heavy rain and crazy lightning // the two kinds I remember growing up in July, August, and September were those that would occur in the middle of the afternoon //Our mother would make us get out of the pool because of lightning // then, those noisy nighttime storms that terrified my sister and myself
/ thank you again, this spring, your channel has helped me feel not so much anxiety and at the same time learning more
@@joseph-frankbrocchus6575 Thank you; I'm really happy to hear that! Those summer thunderstorms can provide some impressive lightning and thunder.
This is a difficult event to forecast or to even know what will happen. The high risk event wasnt quite what it could have been mostly due to too many storms convecting.
This is almost the exact opposite, i think the most likely failure mod is lack of storms instead of too many.
Obviously parameters are off the charts, supercell composites are showing numbers over 50 plus, with sig tor parameters and cape off the charts as well. Any storm that does develop in this environment certainly has the potential to cause destruction.
Its tough to say what will happen, I personally think the Moderate Risk is the right call at the moment, it catches peoples attention without having to pull out the pink sharpie and have outrage because it fails.
I believe the SPC simply believes if the environment proceeds in a favorable manner, and storms start firing rapidly that pink sharpie will be on the map. Probably between OKC and the Kansas border.
This could be a dangerous afternoon depending storms proceed
Well said!
Looks like western Kentucky is right in the sights again for Sunday.
I can't stress how much I appreciate your work. No clickbait, no super saturated reaction thumbnails, just science.
Thank you so much!
I’m not a weatherman but that hodograph looks insane.
Great video Trey always appreciate your videos keep up the good work 😊💯
Thank you!
Do you think it's possible that given today's extreme environment that a left split could recover? It seems at least possible that favorable storm mergers could cause those storms to ramp back up.
I’m not sure of the processes behind that. I’ve seen it happen on occasion before, so we’ll see
I think the only thing that’s keeping them from upgrading to a High Risk is the amount of storm coverage
That and also some of the caveats discussed in the video
The hodo's tripped me out this morning...
Have they sent balloon's up for updated soundings yet? I'll go check after I see what you gots.
Yep...that's the OUN one. Weird looking thing. One of the other one's I checked was looking like the letter Z or something. haha. Strange flows up there, sky writing.
Unfortunately, no new soundings for this afternoon yet; I’m sure we’ll get some shortly
@@ConvectiveChronicles Looking pretty low based now...they're showing us their dangly bits. If they slow down and plant... Katie bar the door!
Well, that settles it. The man’s the G.O.A.T!
Hey y’all, seeing a lot of anxiety in these comments and just wanted to remind you that more than 90% of tornadoes are EF1 or EF2. There have been close to 1000 tornadoes this year and less than 1% have been EF4, 10% are are ef2-ef3. Your average house/building is designed to withstand 110 mph winds, meaning that your average home will be able to withstand most tornadoes. Hope this comforts someone.
And i’m one of those ppl rn here in OKC who are nervous
@@seanchristopherward8205 if it helps I went through an EF2 without a basement and was totally fine. It is scary but I assure you, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO DIE. What you are afraid of is the unknown, and not knowing how things will turn out. Be optimistic, be prepared.
I'm very concerned with this event with how concerned even trained meteorologists are and now even though we are not most at risk dfw is in tornado and especially wind and large hail risk ugh. And my friend is in Lawton. This isn't looking good at all. Anyway I'm going to shut up now and watch. Thank you trey, stay safe today chasing!
Thank you! Yeah, the environment this evening is rare and will feature significant tornadic supercells if things play out as progged.
Just seen 6000 cape at the surface
How bad do you think it will be in Lincoln Nebraska for severe weather
Low end risk
Is it only gonna be a storm in omaha
Mr Greenwood with the facts and expert analysis as always! Thank you for these videos, I've been learning so much 🫡
Thank you!
You're a frickin forecasting rockstar, brother! 🏆 🌪
Thank you!!
Someone give me work.
Good call by the SPC to keep the Moderate Risk, despite the possibility of a few intense tornadoes, giant hail, and destructive winds.
Yeah a high risk makes no sense for a few storms
I agree
How much should southwest Missouri expect?
More of an overnight threat as the MCS moves in. Damaging winds and embedded tornado risk
Do you think a high is still on the table? dewpoints and overall heating is overperforming, or is it still up in the air?
A high is still on the table, although at this point, I don't think they'll do it anytime soon given the uncertainties.
Spectacular setup
Dang
Bang.
Sang.
Wang.
Pang.
Dang,
Man 🧍♀️
🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪 🌪
@rdallas81:
😂. . . Boomhauer enters the room and comments on the current weather situation.
Srsly tho, nothing funny about wx this intense.
Lets go! I was waiting for this!
Been waiting for this!
Awesome video as usual!
Thank you!
Where’s everyone chasing today? Okc? Or more north
Yes
NW OK for us
Is there a live spc soundings website….didn’t see on the spc page
It’s under the Forecast Tools tab
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks…. 60k tops
0Z? What do these "Z" things mean?
Zulu time, based off of the Prime Meridian. For Central Daylight Time in NE KS OK & TX you subtract 5 hours to get local time, so 20Z = 1500 (3PM).
Is it gonna hit Omaha
Greatest threat well south
I wonder if we’ll get a high risk
After looking at new data, I don't think so, at least for now
It's possible if moisture keeps advecting up into OK and KS. Moisture is really all that is needed as all the other ingredients are in place. YET, regardless of it being HIGH or MDT, it is still expected to be a particularly dangerous situation.
@@mrdogeepic8750 I agree. Anything can happen with these storms, so it could weaken or strengthen quickly.
It looks like there are storms in North Texas now. Does that mean that's a good thing for Oklahoma?
Looks like they’re doing a lot of left splits.
@@ThistleKing Yes, indeed. I don't know much about weather but it seems that that means it's a good thing? Good in the sense that there's less likely dangerous tornadoes in OK?
For central OK, it’s definitely going to help negate the threat somewhat, as a lot of left splits are tracking into the area
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you so much for your response! Love the channel!
@@nickcandido6408 Thank you!
Hey where is mid level jet happening?
What do you mean
@@ConvectiveChronicles sir the mid level jet ? Is it cranking? Around 8 CST starting …
@@ConvectiveChronicles when will the mid level jet happen it s 8;CST….no nasty ass tornadoes so far wonder why ?
@@Sciencetor728 Think you mean the low-level jet, which was strong last night.
Heavenly Father, we come to You today to ask for Your protection and safety as severe weather threatens our surroundings. We pray that You will calm the storms and shield us, our loved ones, and our community from harm. Give us the strength to face any challenges and the wisdom to take all necessary precautions to stay safe. We trust in Your mighty power and loving care to see us through this time. Amen. ✝️🙏
Everything happens for a reason, even though we don't see it. Life is the biggest mystery.
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a hundred times: find another channel that gives you this level of quality in forecasting. I’ll wait.
Thank you! I really appreciate that!
Powder Keg Atmosphere 💥💥💥💥
This is going to be one hell of a day for sure. If these storms stay super discrete we are looking at incredibly bad tornadoes in a lot of populated areas if the models keep being right. This is not good and this is definitely one of those days that chaser congestion will be BAD. Trey, you guys probably aiming to stay North of the Metro today or start West and just follow one or 2 of the giant likely tornado producing cells?
Regardless, this is stupidly robust and it's wild that this pattern and craziness even on the long terms ensembles and CFS ones too keep this active still at LEAST to June 5th.
Yeah, heading up to NW OK
PDS tornado warning coming up for N Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas. SPC 2000Z update still hasn't dropped. I have a feeling it's going high risk...
Looks like they kept it mdt
Oh oh Trey on a Saturday…..
No days-off for Mother Nature, no days-off for him? 😢 Maybe he can sleep in October!!😂
Here also can’t wait for your explanation of why they didn’t issue a high risk yet
With new data in, I don't think so, at least for now
@@ConvectiveChroniclesthanks!
why is much of western and southwestern Missouri not getting a moderate risk?
Just extended into MO for mostly wind
@@ConvectiveChronicles tornado risk upgraded to 10%, do you think that’s mostly because of the Low level jet becoming strong?
@@maruccimidwest1480 Yes
All the charts are screaming long track tornadoes today! Another Moore Oklahoma day repeating itself. Stayed tuned…….
Let's hope no Moore situation again 🙏
Yeah, it does look pretty nasty
I mean anything is possible but yeah everyone in central Oklahoma needs to watch out
@@jacobm2625no more Moore!
Appreciate YOUR WEATHER DONT trust my weather man here in NE!!! I can feel the humidity building!!!!! Not good!!!! Storms I feel too!!