yeah u get up and you sell.. its no different in terms of risk because the reward is equal..im not sure how people cant see this.example: how many people would work a riskier job to make 10 years salary..? then take a low risk job for 10 years at 10 years salary? its a wash ..but fortune favors the bold.. TVIX is not a fund to buy a forget... its made to trade INTRADAY. ive made money.. one of my best trades really.
No it's not good for shorting either because it moves too much, requiring too much hedging. You're better off sticking to the VXX for your shorting, and in my opinion, VXX options like long Puts. It's just safer because you always have to factor in risk management to your trades. Anytime you're dealing with unlimited loss trades, like direct shorting, and especially if they are leveraged products, it requires substantially more hedging which is expensive. If you're newer, try to stick to risk defined trades like Long VXX Puts for short vol, and long VXX Calls for long vol. But just FYI, TVIX is being delisted so it's not an issue anymore. There's still VXX and UVXY though.
I understand perfectly the risk in TVIX. This is why i'm long 40K since this month, and until the summer or a vix closing above 80. Of course, I could lose more than 50% on this trade, but I could also make 12x my money. I'm young, I don't need money in my daily life. This is the kind of opportunities you see only few times in a life. Of course this will go through infinit reverses splits. But in the reality of this economy and the strong probability of a depression in the next 18-24 months... this is a trade that I wanna be part of. Honestly NASDAQ 16% green in the last 12 months? Can't wait to see who is going to be the last buyer of the biggest bubble in history.
If you think the market is going to go into a recession, there are many other far better ways to play that with good risk reward profiles. TVIX is a terrible way to play a bearish market stance. But, you've been warned, so good luck to you.
There is no way in hell you 12x your money on TVIX. I was barely up 600% rolling down SPY options during March. That was with me buying .8 delta options for $10-20 a share, the equivalent of 10-20X leverage (but with a far better risk profile than TVIX). Leveraged products are for trading intraday, not for buying and holding. I doubt TVIX even goes up to 800 ever again.
It "can" be used for hedging, but that's only assuming people already know that it's over 6x leveraged the S&P so any hedges using TVIX should be very very VERY small. The problem with TVIX is that people don't understand the basics of position sizing and they get themselves way over leveraged and then wonder why it's a portfolio melting disaster of an ETF.
@@MKPolovanec If that's the case, then that's how its supposed to be used. It has good convexity in that it goes up substantially fast when markets crash so investors only need to buy a small amount of it to hedge a broader portfolio. That's really the only use for TVIX, so I'm very glad to see that some people are using it correctly :)
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies The nice thing about TVIX is that because it's so heavily leveraged you can stay hedged with spare cash from SPY dividends. A 98% SPY 2% TVIX portfolio with quarterly rebalancing experiences about as much tail volatility as a 70% SPY 30% IEF portfolio, but has historically had better alpha, better uptrend participation, a better sortino ratio, and no exposure to interest rate risk. In practice I might have a slight preference for something like 1% TVIX, 4% VIXM, 95% FDLO.
TVIX just rose! I bought it at $100 months ago. The market is going to tank once the "Economy" opens back up. Also inflation much, unemployment, loss of business, other terrible things, etc
I use volatility ETP's as a hedge so I don't have to sell my investments if markets are risky. If used correctly they can neutralize drawdowns. Loosing less is just as good as winning more, right?
That's what TVIX is best used for, and of course I've made it clear that in my opinion, that's all it's good for. Speculating on it is silly, VXX or options works just fine for that with a much better risk profile. TVIX is a hedging tool, and can be a good one due to its high leverage / convexity. Like you said, if you hedge with something like TVIX it may mean not having to sell a net long portfolio.
I've noticed that using the same parameters to trade TVIX and VXX yields HORRIBLE results. I have yet to find a set of parameters to yield a profitable back test with TVIX.
New viewer here. I wish I had saw this video 2 days ago. I went up about $500 with TVIX, then lost it all earlier today because I didn't want to risk being flagged a "day trader" on Robinhood. I didn't have enough info & it turned into a costly lesson. Now I'm up late after 11pm looking for answers. SMH... At any rate, I just subscribed. Thanks for the analysis.
Sorry to hear that, hopefully you can recover soon though. TVIX can be a problem so perhaps try to develop a good track record with VXX first before trying to go for the big leverage.
Thanks for the video. I wouldn't make the mistake of buying tvix if I watch this video before . Lost almost 30% of my money for not knowing this . At least I recover 18% this past 2 days and sold immediately.... This is extremely risky .
Hello Brent, my doubt here is if you have an strategy that works for VXX dosen't works to trade TVIX? When I see the charts of TVIX & VXX are almost the same, obviously with diferent prices. If it's the same pattern why an strategy for VXX dosen't works on TVIX? Regards
As I said in the end of the video, if you have a long established track record of success shorting the market, then it would be different and this wouldn't apply to you. So if you have that, great, no need for TVIX, just keep doing it on VXX and smooth out your results. Now of course the reality is, nearly nobody has long term success shorting the market or buying TVIX. They usually just have a very short term period of results, or maybe 2-3 winning trades and they extrapolate that to being successful. But the longer they try, the more they lose. It's no different than gambling in Vegas. Of course you can win your first few times, that's called luck. But over time, in the long run, over a decade or longer, absolutely not.
Hello Brent, can you talk about the delisting of TVIX and some other liverages ETFs from Credit Suisse? Why do you think is happening now, does it's anounce the armagedon in markets? What is going to happen to them who hold positions after delisting? regards
I may, but I don't think it's really a big deal. It just seems Credit Suisse needs to get out of the ETN business, probably for internal reasons. It's not specific to TVIX, they are also delisting some gold, silver, and natural gas ETNs. It just seems given the health of their business, they've decided to get out of many of their products. As to holding them afterwards, I don't know why anybody would do that. If something is being delisted, the best thing to do would be to avoid trading it and just move on to all the other choices out there.
While I personally don't trade TVIX, the risk is greatly exaggerated in my opinion. -99.99999% since 11/30/2020 is true I'm sure, but that's like a majority of the longest bull market in history. In other videos, (iirc) you advised people not to short TVIX because TVIX can go +700% in a short span of time. *This* is what TVIX traders are after right now, not B&H for another decade.
Well, I don't want anybody to lose money so I definitely wish them luck. But unfortunately most people who trade TVIX don't even know how it works let alone how to manage the risk. The video was education, nothing more.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies Yeah TVIX definitely is extremely dangerous to trade; it's just that there are very few opportunities to trade and (while I don't trade TVIX) I can see why some traders go long during this covid-19 crisis, and possibly do very well.
Hi Brent, great content, I just wanted to bring this to your attention that I was AUTOMATICALLY unsubscribed from your channel! Please look into this as your channel is extremely educational and should not be censored like that!
TVIX is 2x, but it's 2x the daily performance of the S&P short term VIX futures index. That index is already 3.17x leveraged compared to the S&P 500. So TVIX is a 2x VIX futures product, but it moves over 6x the S&P 500. Also, it's not doomed, it does very well for them. It's designed for hedging as an insurance product against a larger portfolio, that's how successful traders would use it. It's very convex in that it goes up very quickly during crashes, so an investor only has to buy a small amount of TVIX to hedge a broad portfolio. That's what it's for. The fact that a bunch of reckless traders who don't understand how it works have decided to try to use it to speculate (and usually lose all their money) is not the issuing banks fault :)
Thank you for this. I'm a relatively new investor. Watching SPY as an inverse to TVIX hadn't occured to me yet. Imma try that for the 2nd wave of covid-19.
This is all new to be .. I bought around 1k stocks on tvix.. so what does leveraged mean?? can I loose more than what I bought from my account??. I am ok loosing that 1k ..but is there possibility of loosing more than that?? Please let me know 🙏🙏🙏 even if this is stupid question
Leveraged doesn't mean you have to trade it on margin, so no you can't lose more than you paid for your position. In this case leveraged means in relation to the S&P 500, and the TVIX moves on average about 6x as fast as the S&P 500, which is why I say it's a highly leveraged position. Most people don't realize just how fast this thing moves, and of course, nearly always to the downside. So going long something that moves 6x as fast as the S&P and the vast majority of the time the movement is down, it doesn't make much sense to buy it long. Very low odds on that trade working out...
Hey sir, I really enjoy your videos. Can you please explain to me why VIX futures are between 29-31 for the rest of the year when the Vix is currently at 28. Does that mean people buying and selling Vix futures are speculating the rest of the year to be more volatile then it is right now??
Currently, yes. But remember it's an open market and things can change relatively fast. So the levels those futures are at now may be different in a month, and could be quite different late in the year. They are futures and you can trade them, so if you feel it's too high or too low, there may be a trade there.
Brent, your thesis depends on the markets going up indefinitely, with volatility in contango. You will find this hypothesis challenged. UVXY and TVIX have signaled a long/buy position for a few days
No it doesn't depend on that, TVIX will also be a problem even if markets don't continue going up. That's the point, it's an absolutely terrible way to try to short the market because timing is of such importance. Your back is against the wall IMMEDIATELY with a product like this. There's many better ways to take bearish positions, but people will do what they are going to do. I made the video as a warning, and my job is done :) People are determined to trade this, even though nearly none of them even know how it works. I'll bet 95% of the people claiming to make money on TVIX were completely lost during the part where I explained it's functioning. They have no idea, and it'll be costly long term...
TVIX is very risky but there are not many investment out there that has an annual range of $38-1000. If you’re buying it for a hold, you most likely will lose, however, short term gains are very achievable. Can someone elaborate more on the pricing of the tvix- specifically on the two VIX rolling futures and how it converges with the spot vix at expiration (with numbers and examples)??? I need more info on that! Thanks and good luck!!
I've talked about it in many articles and videos. You have to do a little bit of work though, nobody is just going to feed it to you. Go to my website and read a few articles, all the information is there. www.volatilitytradingstrategies.com/volatility-dashboard
bought tvix at 230 today and it's 184 now.. should i sell it and stop the bleeding or get out while I can. if these negative rates hit it will plummet even lower.
I bought TVIX today if that makes you feel any better. Down 3.5% already. I put my money on red and the wheel shall spin this weekend. There is so much bad economic news it seems the market has to drop but you never know with trillions flowing out of the fed.
I feel that's missing the point. TVIX isn't just a proxy for short stocks, it functions based on a very specific and known formula of tracking VIX futures. So there are lots of times when if you have an opinion the market will go down, TVIX could still be a terrible proxy for that opinion. Because of how TVIX functions, the only time it would ever make any sense to hold it would be if you thought the market was going to crash, AND the VIX futures term structure is in steep backwardation and the VX30:VIX roll yield is strongly negative. If you just have a random opinion the market is going to go down, and the VIX futures are in contango, TVIX is a terrible way to represent that opinion because it bleeds every day you are wrong. In that case, you'd be far better off just shorting the S&P directly, and using leverage if necessary.
i love txiv.. when your up sell..period.. x3 x2 etfs are the best . imo the risk reward is the same as any fund. just with out the x2. so your confident enough to bet on "safe" etfs? you get low risk returns...the " risk " is the same..its a wash
Well if you're doing well with it then fine, that's up to each person to decide. But the risk is not the same or a wash, not even close. It's just the math of it, leveraged funds are far more risky simply because losses hurt your progress more than gains help. Which is again why I said, unless you have a solid long term track record of shorting the market without leverage, the last thing people should do is leverage it up. Mathematically that just compounds out too far worse returns long term. Most people would make a higher rate of return sticking to non leveraged securities.
yes they are leveraged.. if bull markets were shorter than bear markets where would the DOW be? it does not matter..because imo we are in for more than a 40 day bear market..although im an novice.. there are to many variables to suggest otherwise. some we have never seen before like creeping death. ok people are not really worried about the kill rate.. fine.. maybe they think it wont affect numbers..ok. fine. the market is detached from reality. take any of the large companys, that really affect the market, look at the PE alone. the trailing pe of tesla is 198 for example.. if tesla was a 100$ company it GROSSES around 50cents a year, and that 100$ is only valued by sentiment imo.. hotter potato is the game. its not making any more money really so as the price goes up , the value does inversely. want to buy tesla at 100$ with a 50 cent annual return? doubt it. eventually this may sink into the mobs head.. because all they have in hand is speculation someone willing to take, with a growing negative value, is more speculation.. nothing against tesla..but the market is heavily weighted by these mega and large caps.
The longest I’ve held TVIX was for about 3 days in March with a small percentage of my portfolio, probably won’t ever buy again, made money but not worth the insane leverage.
Not sure if serious :) But honestly, since TVIX is delisted the share creation mechanism can't be trusted anymore so even though it's technically possible to still trade it's basically a dead product and everybody should stay well away from it.
7:10 Hello Brent, I watched you previous video and i thought the roll yield is the change in % of the VX30 between two consecutive closing days. But the roll yield is actually (VX30/VIX current level) -1? Thanks.
Based on the daily volume, you're not alone :) A lot of people like the TVIX, but something that I think everybody should do is an honest assessment of their success with it. Humans have a lot of cognitive biases and a lot of people remember their wins and forget their losses. It's like Vegas, most people think they are up money when we know for a fact statistically they are not. So I always suggest people just go into their gainskeeper, isolate TVIX, and be honest, is it profitable? Based on the fact that it's gone from 2.8 billion to 150$, I strongly suspect for most people who buy TVIX long the answer is no. If you're one of the very few that is actually up, congrats!
Awesome, congrats! Now you only have 30+ years to go in your investing time horizon. The reason people shouldn't buy TVIX isn't because they can't get lucky once or twice, of course they can. The reason is simple. Post your track record 1 year from today, and tell me if you're still up. I'm sorry to say, I already know the answer to that question. But good luck to you anyway :)
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies It was a day trade. Only a fool would swing this stock. When volatility happens TVIX is gold
4 года назад+3
I didn't see this video and I bought TVIX for the first time this morning. It was so volatile I was paralyzed even though I was up a little bit. I got really lucky and sold it at same exact price I bought it. Then it tanked. Never again. Its gotta be the crack cocaine of investing. No thanks.
I told your ass last video on TVIX the shit is going up! This week is going to go UP until Friday. Buying on Tuesday holding until Friday. This whole week the market will be RED! After this week it will be green again for 10 days then back to RED for a month! TVIX and S &P are finally on track together. They were off for the past month or so. There were times last month TVIX would NOT go UP even though DOW was going down. They have re-connected now. It's going to reach $800 again then fall
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies haha! Watch this shit this week! I'm coming back to this video and letting u know about it haha! If not, I will give u props for ONCE! Haha!
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies I think this guy is from r/Wallstreetbets subreddit This kind of DD is really common over there. Sorry if one of us came in here and trash talk like it's WWE. You shine a lot of light on a really complicated topic. thank you for your info.
For lots more of my Volatility Trading info: www.volatilitytradingstrategies.com/volatility-dashboard
Can you lose more money than you put in to the TVIX?
Gotta know those candles, in and out,
@@ERAD625 it will Robb you blind
Moral of story= Don’t hold TVIX for more then two days unless you wanna lose a shitload of money ✌️
But for real, great research and great video.
yeah u get up and you sell.. its no different in terms of risk because the reward is equal..im not sure how people cant see this.example: how many people would work a riskier job to make 10 years salary..? then take a low risk job for 10 years at 10 years salary? its a wash ..but fortune favors the bold.. TVIX is not a fund to buy a forget... its made to trade INTRADAY. ive made money.. one of my best trades really.
Wish i saw this 2 months ago. i just lost 9 out of my 11gs trying to make money with tvix. I feel like i just got hit by a truck.
I went from 8500 to 10k and down to 600 bucks. I feel your pain. I loaded up another 15k with lessons learned
Ouch. That hurts guys. I new for TVIX. I invested about $4000 @$145. I am now thinking to get out earliest possible
@@jaymathia22487 if you believe there will be another crash coming keep it if not sell it
Is TVIX a good instrument for shorting? Does institutional investors use it for hedging? Thanks for the nice video!!l
No it's not good for shorting either because it moves too much, requiring too much hedging. You're better off sticking to the VXX for your shorting, and in my opinion, VXX options like long Puts. It's just safer because you always have to factor in risk management to your trades. Anytime you're dealing with unlimited loss trades, like direct shorting, and especially if they are leveraged products, it requires substantially more hedging which is expensive.
If you're newer, try to stick to risk defined trades like Long VXX Puts for short vol, and long VXX Calls for long vol.
But just FYI, TVIX is being delisted so it's not an issue anymore. There's still VXX and UVXY though.
It is getting delisted
I understand perfectly the risk in TVIX. This is why i'm long 40K since this month, and until the summer or a vix closing above 80. Of course, I could lose more than 50% on this trade, but I could also make 12x my money. I'm young, I don't need money in my daily life. This is the kind of opportunities you see only few times in a life. Of course this will go through infinit reverses splits. But in the reality of this economy and the strong probability of a depression in the next 18-24 months... this is a trade that I wanna be part of. Honestly NASDAQ 16% green in the last 12 months? Can't wait to see who is going to be the last buyer of the biggest bubble in history.
Im on the same page. 40k into TVIX.
Wait till you hear about Beta Decay and roll yield
If you think the market is going to go into a recession, there are many other far better ways to play that with good risk reward profiles. TVIX is a terrible way to play a bearish market stance. But, you've been warned, so good luck to you.
There is no way in hell you 12x your money on TVIX.
I was barely up 600% rolling down SPY options during March. That was with me buying .8 delta options for $10-20 a share, the equivalent of 10-20X leverage (but with a far better risk profile than TVIX). Leveraged products are for trading intraday, not for buying and holding.
I doubt TVIX even goes up to 800 ever again.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies whats a better investment if your betting against the market?
TVIX is a short term hedging strategy. In times like these it could be a good tool.
It "can" be used for hedging, but that's only assuming people already know that it's over 6x leveraged the S&P so any hedges using TVIX should be very very VERY small. The problem with TVIX is that people don't understand the basics of position sizing and they get themselves way over leveraged and then wonder why it's a portfolio melting disaster of an ETF.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies that's true. I don't put more than 1.5% to 2% of my portfolio when I buy it.
@@MKPolovanec If that's the case, then that's how its supposed to be used. It has good convexity in that it goes up substantially fast when markets crash so investors only need to buy a small amount of it to hedge a broader portfolio. That's really the only use for TVIX, so I'm very glad to see that some people are using it correctly :)
Better short the VIX spikes IMO.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies The nice thing about TVIX is that because it's so heavily leveraged you can stay hedged with spare cash from SPY dividends.
A 98% SPY 2% TVIX portfolio with quarterly rebalancing experiences about as much tail volatility as a 70% SPY 30% IEF portfolio, but has historically had better alpha, better uptrend participation, a better sortino ratio, and no exposure to interest rate risk. In practice I might have a slight preference for something like 1% TVIX, 4% VIXM, 95% FDLO.
Please don't stop making these Great Content Videos Brett. It is highly appreciated.
TVIX just rose! I bought it at $100 months ago.
The market is going to tank once the "Economy" opens back up. Also inflation much, unemployment, loss of business, other terrible things, etc
with that crazy 2 day rally it just did, if it dips again im buying and holding till we get the real crash
Wow 100! Wow!
and the graph is between 2010 to 2019? which is between the two crashes... am i missing something ?
Thank you for this video. I did not realize the TVIX goes down when the market is flat.
I use volatility ETP's as a hedge so I don't have to sell my investments if markets are risky. If used correctly they can neutralize drawdowns. Loosing less is just as good as winning more, right?
That's what TVIX is best used for, and of course I've made it clear that in my opinion, that's all it's good for. Speculating on it is silly, VXX or options works just fine for that with a much better risk profile. TVIX is a hedging tool, and can be a good one due to its high leverage / convexity. Like you said, if you hedge with something like TVIX it may mean not having to sell a net long portfolio.
I've noticed that using the same parameters to trade TVIX and VXX yields HORRIBLE results. I have yet to find a set of parameters to yield a profitable back test with TVIX.
The only TWIX I am buying is a Chocolate.
This seems so tempting but the leverage always screws me in the demo account.
New viewer here. I wish I had saw this video 2 days ago. I went up about $500 with TVIX, then lost it all earlier today because I didn't want to risk being flagged a "day trader" on Robinhood. I didn't have enough info & it turned into a costly lesson. Now I'm up late after 11pm looking for answers. SMH... At any rate, I just subscribed. Thanks for the analysis.
Sorry to hear that, hopefully you can recover soon though. TVIX can be a problem so perhaps try to develop a good track record with VXX first before trying to go for the big leverage.
Thanks for the video. I wouldn't make the mistake of buying tvix if I watch this video before . Lost almost 30% of my money for not knowing this . At least I recover 18% this past 2 days and sold immediately.... This is extremely risky .
Hello Brent, my doubt here is if you have an strategy that works for VXX dosen't works to trade TVIX? When I see the charts of TVIX & VXX are almost the same, obviously with diferent prices. If it's the same pattern why an strategy for VXX dosen't works on TVIX? Regards
As I said in the end of the video, if you have a long established track record of success shorting the market, then it would be different and this wouldn't apply to you. So if you have that, great, no need for TVIX, just keep doing it on VXX and smooth out your results.
Now of course the reality is, nearly nobody has long term success shorting the market or buying TVIX. They usually just have a very short term period of results, or maybe 2-3 winning trades and they extrapolate that to being successful. But the longer they try, the more they lose. It's no different than gambling in Vegas. Of course you can win your first few times, that's called luck. But over time, in the long run, over a decade or longer, absolutely not.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies Thanks for answer
Hello Brent, can you talk about the delisting of TVIX and some other liverages ETFs from Credit Suisse? Why do you think is happening now, does it's anounce the armagedon in markets? What is going to happen to them who hold positions after delisting? regards
I may, but I don't think it's really a big deal. It just seems Credit Suisse needs to get out of the ETN business, probably for internal reasons. It's not specific to TVIX, they are also delisting some gold, silver, and natural gas ETNs. It just seems given the health of their business, they've decided to get out of many of their products. As to holding them afterwards, I don't know why anybody would do that. If something is being delisted, the best thing to do would be to avoid trading it and just move on to all the other choices out there.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies Thank you very much for your expert and clarifying answer.
While I personally don't trade TVIX, the risk is greatly exaggerated in my opinion. -99.99999% since 11/30/2020 is true I'm sure, but that's like a majority of the longest bull market in history. In other videos, (iirc) you advised people not to short TVIX because TVIX can go +700% in a short span of time. *This* is what TVIX traders are after right now, not B&H for another decade.
Well, I don't want anybody to lose money so I definitely wish them luck. But unfortunately most people who trade TVIX don't even know how it works let alone how to manage the risk. The video was education, nothing more.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies Yeah TVIX definitely is extremely dangerous to trade; it's just that there are very few opportunities to trade and (while I don't trade TVIX) I can see why some traders go long during this covid-19 crisis, and possibly do very well.
Hi Brent, great content, I just wanted to bring this to your attention that I was AUTOMATICALLY unsubscribed from your channel! Please look into this as your channel is extremely educational and should not be censored like that!
In Jan-feb bought TVIX at ~40 and sold at 400 in March! Buying again at 150 and already it’s 50 up!
Investing is a 30+ year time horizon, not 1 trade, but good luck to you :)
VTS - Brent Osachoff In long term we all are dead! Investing is applying capital to make returns. It’s no fun loosing!
I bought five shares of TVIX $151 each. We'll see what happens by Friday when I sell...
Damn! so far
👍 Good times coming.
How come it says 2X in TVIX’s own description? Why did Velocityshares create this product if it mathematically was doomed from inception
TVIX is 2x, but it's 2x the daily performance of the S&P short term VIX futures index. That index is already 3.17x leveraged compared to the S&P 500. So TVIX is a 2x VIX futures product, but it moves over 6x the S&P 500. Also, it's not doomed, it does very well for them. It's designed for hedging as an insurance product against a larger portfolio, that's how successful traders would use it. It's very convex in that it goes up very quickly during crashes, so an investor only has to buy a small amount of TVIX to hedge a broad portfolio. That's what it's for. The fact that a bunch of reckless traders who don't understand how it works have decided to try to use it to speculate (and usually lose all their money) is not the issuing banks fault :)
I don't get the mystery here. You watch SPY and play TVIX off it....it makes for tremendous scalping.
Thank you for this. I'm a relatively new investor. Watching SPY as an inverse to TVIX hadn't occured to me yet. Imma try that for the 2nd wave of covid-19.
thanks very much for the useful advice. very clear video.
This is all new to be .. I bought around 1k stocks on tvix.. so what does leveraged mean?? can I loose more than what I bought from my account??. I am ok loosing that 1k ..but is there possibility of loosing more than that?? Please let me know 🙏🙏🙏 even if this is stupid question
Leveraged doesn't mean you have to trade it on margin, so no you can't lose more than you paid for your position. In this case leveraged means in relation to the S&P 500, and the TVIX moves on average about 6x as fast as the S&P 500, which is why I say it's a highly leveraged position. Most people don't realize just how fast this thing moves, and of course, nearly always to the downside. So going long something that moves 6x as fast as the S&P and the vast majority of the time the movement is down, it doesn't make much sense to buy it long. Very low odds on that trade working out...
Hey sir, I really enjoy your videos. Can you please explain to me why VIX futures are between 29-31 for the rest of the year when the Vix is currently at 28. Does that mean people buying and selling Vix futures are speculating the rest of the year to be more volatile then it is right now??
Currently, yes. But remember it's an open market and things can change relatively fast. So the levels those futures are at now may be different in a month, and could be quite different late in the year. They are futures and you can trade them, so if you feel it's too high or too low, there may be a trade there.
Intraday TVIX has huge potential. Ppl just dont understand how it works. Good video..
Brent, your thesis depends on the markets going up indefinitely, with volatility in contango. You will find this hypothesis challenged. UVXY and TVIX have signaled a long/buy position for a few days
No it doesn't depend on that, TVIX will also be a problem even if markets don't continue going up. That's the point, it's an absolutely terrible way to try to short the market because timing is of such importance. Your back is against the wall IMMEDIATELY with a product like this. There's many better ways to take bearish positions, but people will do what they are going to do. I made the video as a warning, and my job is done :) People are determined to trade this, even though nearly none of them even know how it works. I'll bet 95% of the people claiming to make money on TVIX were completely lost during the part where I explained it's functioning. They have no idea, and it'll be costly long term...
low risk usually comes with low returns..geez if you hold a daily fund its not meant to hold for 7 years... fees and " decay" will get u
Good points. People need to learn about TVIX.
Brent, Thanks for your educative videos, I frankly think you're one on the best in the field :)
TVIX is very risky but there are not many investment out there that has an annual range of $38-1000. If you’re buying it for a hold, you most likely will lose, however, short term gains are very achievable.
Can someone elaborate more on the pricing of the tvix- specifically on the two VIX rolling futures and how it converges with the spot vix at expiration (with numbers and examples)??? I need more info on that! Thanks and good luck!!
I've talked about it in many articles and videos. You have to do a little bit of work though, nobody is just going to feed it to you. Go to my website and read a few articles, all the information is there. www.volatilitytradingstrategies.com/volatility-dashboard
bought tvix at 230 today and it's 184 now.. should i sell it and stop the bleeding or get out while I can.
if these negative rates hit it will plummet even lower.
I would definitely set a stop loss. The decay on TVIX is wild.
I bought TVIX today if that makes you feel any better. Down 3.5% already. I put my money on red and the wheel shall spin this weekend. There is so much bad economic news it seems the market has to drop but you never know with trillions flowing out of the fed.
Made $1100 today , thanks
To shorten this video. Only buy tvix if you are expecting a crash
I feel that's missing the point. TVIX isn't just a proxy for short stocks, it functions based on a very specific and known formula of tracking VIX futures. So there are lots of times when if you have an opinion the market will go down, TVIX could still be a terrible proxy for that opinion. Because of how TVIX functions, the only time it would ever make any sense to hold it would be if you thought the market was going to crash, AND the VIX futures term structure is in steep backwardation and the VX30:VIX roll yield is strongly negative.
If you just have a random opinion the market is going to go down, and the VIX futures are in contango, TVIX is a terrible way to represent that opinion because it bleeds every day you are wrong. In that case, you'd be far better off just shorting the S&P directly, and using leverage if necessary.
26x blip that'd have to be perfectly timed and executed not for me. Interesting the VXX was a 5x blip so the roll yield added 6x? Amazing
TVIX.... It's either a cash incinerator or a FREE Atm Machine haha.
I'm buying UVXY Puts atm :)
Why so extreme :) Why can't volatility ETPs just be steady consistent ways to make a reasonable long term profit. That's how I use them anyway...
I've never lost money with TVIX, always made money with it....in and out within the day though.
Well, that probably means one of two things. a) You haven't traded it for very long b) You're the best trader in the world.
Thank you so much. Great video.
Thanks for the blunt tone man. Just came across ur channel! love the content. noob investor here haha
Well, TVIX is being delisted so I guess you don't need to study it anymore :)
TVIX works!
i love txiv.. when your up sell..period.. x3 x2 etfs are the best
. imo the risk reward is the same as any fund. just with out the x2. so your confident enough to bet on "safe" etfs? you get low risk returns...the " risk " is the same..its a wash
Well if you're doing well with it then fine, that's up to each person to decide. But the risk is not the same or a wash, not even close. It's just the math of it, leveraged funds are far more risky simply because losses hurt your progress more than gains help. Which is again why I said, unless you have a solid long term track record of shorting the market without leverage, the last thing people should do is leverage it up. Mathematically that just compounds out too far worse returns long term. Most people would make a higher rate of return sticking to non leveraged securities.
good luck in these times brother.. imo it will get real nasty..
yes they are leveraged.. if bull markets were shorter than bear markets where would the DOW be? it does not matter..because imo we are in for more than a 40 day bear market..although im an novice.. there are to many variables to suggest otherwise. some we have never seen before like creeping death. ok people are not really worried about the kill rate.. fine.. maybe they think it wont affect numbers..ok. fine. the market is detached from reality. take any of the large companys, that really affect the market, look at the PE alone. the trailing pe of tesla is 198 for example.. if tesla was a 100$ company it GROSSES around 50cents a year, and that 100$ is only valued by sentiment imo.. hotter potato is the game. its not making any more money really so as the price goes up , the value does inversely. want to buy tesla at 100$ with a 50 cent annual return? doubt it. eventually this may sink into the mobs head.. because all they have in hand is speculation someone willing to take, with a growing negative value, is more speculation.. nothing against tesla..but the market is heavily weighted by these mega and large caps.
The longest I’ve held TVIX was for about 3 days in March with a small percentage of my portfolio, probably won’t ever buy again, made money but not worth the insane leverage.
Financial education = the best way to discover how stupid you are, after you lose money investing in something you doesn't understand.
Thx for info
Seems like the time is now to buy tvixf, with all the volatility.
Not sure if serious :) But honestly, since TVIX is delisted the share creation mechanism can't be trusted anymore so even though it's technically possible to still trade it's basically a dead product and everybody should stay well away from it.
Brent sounds like a new hire safety instruction video.. in this case...tvix safety
Just like the safety guy at the job site, nobody is listening....even after young bucks losing arms and legs.
@@darkrood lol
7:10 Hello Brent, I watched you previous video and i thought the roll yield is the change in % of the VX30 between two consecutive closing days.
But the roll yield is actually (VX30/VIX current level) -1?
Thanks.
VX30:VIX roll yield is just how much the VX30 constant maturity contract is above the spot VIX index.
I love the tvix...
Based on the daily volume, you're not alone :) A lot of people like the TVIX, but something that I think everybody should do is an honest assessment of their success with it. Humans have a lot of cognitive biases and a lot of people remember their wins and forget their losses. It's like Vegas, most people think they are up money when we know for a fact statistically they are not. So I always suggest people just go into their gainskeeper, isolate TVIX, and be honest, is it profitable? Based on the fact that it's gone from 2.8 billion to 150$, I strongly suspect for most people who buy TVIX long the answer is no. If you're one of the very few that is actually up, congrats!
made 14% on tvix today
Awesome, congrats! Now you only have 30+ years to go in your investing time horizon. The reason people shouldn't buy TVIX isn't because they can't get lucky once or twice, of course they can. The reason is simple. Post your track record 1 year from today, and tell me if you're still up. I'm sorry to say, I already know the answer to that question. But good luck to you anyway :)
VTS - Brent Osachoff do you really ? What if he has other trades.
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies It was a day trade. Only a fool would swing this stock. When volatility happens TVIX is gold
I didn't see this video and I bought TVIX for the first time this morning. It was so volatile I was paralyzed even though I was up a little bit. I got really lucky and sold it at same exact price I bought it. Then it tanked. Never again. Its gotta be the crack cocaine of investing. No thanks.
Lol
TVIX is not and never will be 'investing.' Recognize it for the trading tool that it is and it will be a possible platform for profit.
If you dont...... Just dont buy tvix
Except you were wrong
TVIX still a good trad for today as the market continue to go down.
I told your ass last video on TVIX the shit is going up! This week is going to go UP until Friday. Buying on Tuesday holding until Friday. This whole week the market will be RED! After this week it will be green again for 10 days then back to RED for a month! TVIX and S &P are finally on track together. They were off for the past month or so. There were times last month TVIX would NOT go UP even though DOW was going down. They have re-connected now. It's going to reach $800 again then fall
I'm surprised a world class hedge fund hasn't scooped you up yet :)
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies haha! Watch this shit this week! I'm coming back to this video and letting u know about it haha! If not, I will give u props for ONCE! Haha!
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies You ready for tomorrow? The shit going up BIG until next week!
@@VolatilityTradingStrategies I think this guy is from r/Wallstreetbets subreddit
This kind of DD is really common over there.
Sorry if one of us came in here and trash talk like it's WWE.
You shine a lot of light on a really complicated topic.
thank you for your info.
i think you already made plenty of people lost their money in previous videos
Do you mean Brent made lost them money ? How ?