We already know that she has been given the position as their puppet. And nothing we can do to stop it. They have surrounded Trump with a bunch of Dems including his choice for VP. All of the people who claim they are backing him are from school of skull and cross bones all have had the same person funding them at one time or another. By chance do doubt it. Just get ready for 4 more years of communism coming.
@@ferguszade5594 Spoken like someone who doesn't buy groceries. And maybe you have given up on ever owning a home or new car. Maybe you don't mind living in the street. I get it, but it doesn't have to be that way. Yes, you have lived the last four year in hopelessness but that is not how things have to be. We can go back to when things were good for Americans. we can go back to not being involved in endless wars, we can go back to having secure borders to keep us all safe from crime, disease, drugs, and human trafficking. Don't give up.. Vote for YOUR LIFE, Vote for a better America. Vote Conservative and you can still live the American dream..
N then he let you all DIE with Covid by claiming he took NO RESPONSIBILITY n also he didn't care with these words: IT IS WHAT IT IS, people are dying .."... To you, that's a life better when he was president... Sure!
@@leeannebishop51 Nope. Those 13 Marines killed were all on the Biden/Harris watch. While Biden checked his watch as their coffins were unloaded. Pathetic.
Hillary didn't give a speech when she lost because she didn't have one prepared because she "knew" that she would win but she underestimated Trump voters. So they made absolutely sure that Biden will get enough votes. What next, a blackout on the grid to prevent an election? With no grid, stores will go empty. People will get desperate and desperate people will get violent. Then martial law will be declared and they keep power, problem solved.
Good one! Is there a key for poll watchers being kicked out and suitcases and coolers being rolled in, as a friend of mine witnessed? Is there a key for an election worker LYING to poll watchers and the media about a "pipe leak" so that everybody had to leave, except the ones that were LYING? Is there a key for the election worker of 25 years who was fired because she discovered a box of pre-filled out ballots? Is there a key for the canvassers who audited addresses of mail-in ballots, only to discover vacant lots, strip bars, restaurants, etc...? And the think I find most frustrating is that the mainstream media has no concern about these issues. Which in my book, makes them guilty along with the ones committing the crime.
Accusations like that is LITERAL TREASON!! He lost, just like he lost the popular vote the year he won and LIED about winning in a "landslide". They proved in COURT that everyone on his side was lying. No true Patriots are supporting that Tyrant, especially after he insults wounded soldiers.
@@paulherring8959 The majority of that debt happened in 2020 due to COVID...Presidents for two decades have dealt with about 1 trillion in debt per year growth. Trump was on a path to 1 trillion per year prior to COVID and his 1 trillion per year was after his tax cuts, where Clinton, Bush and Obama all were at 1 trillion per year (only they did not have any tax cuts) meaning 4 trillion of the 7.8 trillion was from the Pandemic forward.
@@christownsend3979 None of your comment changes the FACT that Trump's spending during the pandemic was just as responsible for the run up of inflation as anything Biden did.
6 to 6 and one undecided means this overall well produced video predicts nothing. It wil be interesting to see how the RFK dropout ultimately affects Lichtman's overall prediction.
This guy predicted that Hillary would lose in 2016, and Trump was not meant to win in 2020 that's ridiculous. Not only was he wildly unpopular at the time, it was in the middle of an economic crisis which he handled poorly. He was also impeached and did nothing valuable in office. There was no reason why Trump would have won the 2020 election, yet he wants you to believe so badly he should have won it.
The problem with the economy key is *why* gdp is up. It's because we have flooded the country with millions of additional workers. So the voters aren't any more productive - instead per legal worker they are probably less so.
Revised 818 thousand down . Illegal gained 1.5.million jobs. Citizens lost 5 million full time jobs. Stag inflation explosion. Fed lower interest rate GDP is all federal government Private sector fell to lowest level Since 1970.
If a majority of Americans say they feel the US is in recession, Gallup poll specifically. Litchman will have to turn a economic key false like in 1991 based on polls
there is a simple reality, the election math is against trump minus 20 percent of his republican base in reagan republicans who wont vote for trump. normally there is an even number of democrat and republican voters so 10 percent of the independents determines who wins. democrats get a high turnout and the independents wont matter much this election.
GDP is not a measure of people's WELL-BEING-factors such as cost of living(inflation), access to employment, access to affordable housing, public safety, level of disposable income are more important factors that will influence voters
yep, making slightly more money doesn't matter when housing costs have tripled. I'm not blaming everything on Biden as he did do some good. But the economy is not as bright for average people as this video implies.
Correct the economy is doing really really well for people on Wall Street, Main Street, not so much. The cost of housing is absolutely awful, both for renting and buying. Next wages versus food at the grocery store and insurance to keep your car on the road as well as gasoline and car repair cost, by the way car repair cost are also driving up insurance rates. None of these are good in fact they’re very bad. We the American people feel these costs acutely. I think the economy key goes to Trump.
Be thankful Democrats took over in 2020 or people's WELL-BEING would be considerably worse. Recovery from covid and Trump would have been slowed, stopped or destructive if Trump remained in office.
I'll have to say, he states that debates and polling make no difference on his streams, however this is objectively not true. The debate is one of the biggest reasons Biden began being pushed out of the race. Also, polling DOES make a difference, Biden's polling was a big reason why donors and the Democratic party leaders told Biden he was cooked. It is unarguably different in this election, even dispute many supporters on his stream were saying "elections have had people saying that for years". For these reasons, I can't support it.
If you go back to what he was saying about Biden, not that he ever predicted it at that time, but he was leaning towards Trump winning which he probably would have won. Now that things have changed with Kamala, it has been re-evaluated.
Polls only give snapshots. In July 2012, Mitt Romney was beating Obama in every poll. Like literally every poll. But Obama still won. In 2004, John Kerry was beating Bush in every poll by as much as 10 percent in some, but Bush still win. Despite low polling numbers, Biden more than likely would have still won, maybe not by as much in 2020, but enough to still to ger to 270. I understand that this election was different as an incumbent and former president were running against each other.
@@robertvillarreal9105 not true! Lichtman touted that Biden had enough keys for reelection despite every factor, from health & party support to donors & polling saying otherwise.
Hindsight is 20/20 and you people say this type of nonsense with so much confidence. Yeah, just throw out decades of being RIGHT in order to fit your bs narrative lol
1992 well no one was a prize that Bill Clinton won no one would’ve been surprised if Bush won They were polling basically dead even. 2012 Mitt Romney was actually pulling higher than Barack Obama and Allan call to two years early. So there were 4 elections that A lot of people would’ve got wrong
Wrong. He became obsolete. He would have had to pull 10% or 5%, but now he's not doing either so it defaults to Harris. She's going to be the next President and the first woman President!! ✨🎈🎉🎊
Ppl will see right through what RFK Jr is doing. He couldn't get a position on the democratic side so he ran to the republican side only for political gain. Sad. After all the negative talk about them and Trump. Sad.. 😢😢
Lichtman has always sounded very neutral in the past with this predictions This election, however, he has been big on social media admitting that he and his family are democrats and not for Trump. His left leaning bias might actually Skew his thinking and interfere with his success in predicting the election outcome of 2024
So you're saying that he's lying and that he changed his algorithm (putting his lifes work and reputation on the line) so that it fits ONLY this years election 🤔?
So this means that the person running and the amount of campaigning they do doesn't matter? As that accounts for one key. Also Trump is kind of a unique case being a president that has taken a break. Wouldn't that suggest in this modelling scenario much more weight on 2016-2020 should be taken when considering Republicans?
the whole GDP argument, per capita and all that jazz. averages dont work so good when people are barely scraping by. averages and generalization are on the menu daily this time. ive never seen an increase of thousands a year in my salary WITHIN the government, and I would assume, many Americans haven't either. But I understand, broke people are outliers and hardly factor in the average, very interesting numbers, personally, I dont believe any of it. but hey, my vote- my choice. :)
RFK JR is going to leave his own campaign and join trump. this will be a singificant development and shows RFK JR considers harris to be a significant threat to the health and well being of this country. his move will help trump significantly. if trump gains 5 points it could make the trump win
Actually RFK tried coming to VP Kamala Harris first asking for a cabinet position and she said no. I just wanted to make sure you have the facts. Be sure to do your own fact checking. Check everything! It’s the only way to be sure you’re getting the truth. God bless!
THIS IS NOT THE PRESENT CURRANT POLE AS OF 8/26/2023. So I do not agree with this because RFK Jr dropped out in which people that poled for RFK Jr will vote for Trump. So Trump’s polling should go up.
Are people voting for a President who is capable of handling the country's affairs (domestic & foreign) OR for someone who is going to be the first this or that to be elected as President.
He also lost because he promised "read my lips, no new taxes" then Congress passed a tax increase that he wasn't able to veto....as it was overridden...we got new taxes, and bill Clinton
For the long term economy, not considering inflation is absurd. Simply having high inflation would make that key true if there gdp is increasing at all. Taking into account wage growth must be considered, as what’s important is not some arbitrary number but American’s sentiment about the economy.
You failed to acknowledge Biden’s role in strengthening NATO and supporting Ukraine. Much more recent, memorable and significant than an awkward departure from Afghanistan.
God allows all leaders to come and go. If you are God fearing you will get his choice of leader if not you will get what you ask for. The Bible predictions have always proven true. God bless everyone
I had a vision about Donald Trump becoming president for the first time two months before the 2016 election. In this vision, Trump won and tried to shake hands with Hillary Clinton, who wore a red dress, but she turned away. Trump then rode a scooter to the White House, where some military officers saluted him, while others were surprised and questioned if he was indeed the president-elect. Recently, in 2024, I had another dream involving Trump. He had lost his re-election bid in 2020 and was sitting at a table full of fruits and flowers. He looked at me and said he would be back. The name "Xavier Frazer" was also written on his shirt. In a separate vision this year, I saw Trump and me walking together. I found a wallet on the ground containing Trump's ID card. I picked it up, alerted him, and he returned to retrieve it.
Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️
Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
GDP increase doesn't matter if it doesn't keep up with costs. You forgot to take inflation into account. Of course GDP went up. we are at atleast 25% inflation since before covid.. which means you need 25% more money to break even, hence everything rises by 25% including GDP, but it's a false rise when compaired to inflation.. we can all tell when we go shopping. The Dollar value is much lower.. Using the SNP500 as a benchmark is a terrible idea, especially when it also doesn't reflect inflation.. If a stock increases by 12%, but the prices of everything increases by 17%, then you've effectively lost 5% of your money if you cash out the stocks. THINK PEOPLE! .... NEXT: Talking about LOW inflation means nothing. It simply means things are going up less this year than last year. Low inflation is STILL inflation.. don;t let these people fool you.. If you want prices to come down, you have to hear a word that NOBODY SAYS... "DEFLATION" That's when you hit 0 inflation and cross over to negatives, into deflation. Even this guy, with all his numbers, hasn't put 2 and 2 together yet. Everyone is brainwashed so well, they think low inflation is somehow a good thing.. No.. inflation is ALWAYS bad, because prices are STILL climbing!
@@carolynclemens7287 My whole family is/was military, (all the men) and no I don't think Biden is the answer, clearly. He's not even running now. So, moot comment. Trump handled foreign policy way better during his term. There was less tension and more healthy fear from the other side. "Inflation is dropping" - refer to my OP. Until it drops below zero, it means nothing. No politician has managed to accomplish it in 50+ years by policy. As long as we're stuck borrowing from the fed, they will continue to print money, and inflate the dollar. You have to reign in spending first, and cap what the fed can do to manipulate the money supply in the wrong direction. You always end up with a rubber band effect in the economy after changing the money supply, in other words it always takes a few years (roughly 3-5) once the fed makes a move. See here: (take out teh spaces) https ://upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/CPI_1914-2022. webp
@@carolynclemens7287 No Biden clearly isnt the answer, He's not even running so moot comment. And the alternative (Kamala) wants to have the fed print a shit load of money for subsidized housing costs, and student loan forgiveness... Which will increase prices even more. My whole family is Military, (all the men) As for inflation coming down, refer to my OP. stupid ass YT won't let me drop a link to show the clear effect of the fed printing money. It deletes it.
The majority of Americans has never been prioritized the other keys regardless of the economic, illegal migrants and the inflation is the most priorities of concerns.
Right? How are they tweaking those numbers ? Must be counting corporate profits. Not the American people. And no scandal related to Biden? What about Treason? Selling us out for his family profit.
@@purpl-monkee354 So true! After Hunter's laptop lies by Biden and the liberal media, I can't believe people are stupid enough to still put their trust in them.
Overall, pretty good, but it goes to show just how arbitrary these keys are. Assigning key 2 tomHarris if the delegates vote for her is completely absurd. That’s just an idea pulled out of thin air. This key should be thrown out. It doesn’t apply because the candidate actually selected by the delegates was discarded because he did so badly in a debate they thought he had no chance of winning. The long term economy is arbitrary as well. For one thing, the numbers get revised, so no one knows if we are in an economy until after the fact. In 2008, for example, it was revised to show the country had actually entered into a recession already for something like 9 months. What mattered in 2008 was the sentiment about the economy, not whether or not it was technically in a recession.
While the economy has been growing, inflation has outpaced the growth and Americans' pay is not increasing nearly as fast, so for the average American, we are in what feels like a major recession. Edit: As an example, food has increased in price by about 10% in my area in the past year. My income has increased by 1%. This is where the financials key(s) may actually get it all wrong on this election.
Lord God, save America from career Politicians. They do not care about America. All they care about is themselves and their Party interests. Lord, America belongs to You, regardless of whether people believe in You or not. Lord, I know a little bit about Politicians who put their personal interests above the interests of the Country. Thank You Lord.
My life, my families life, my friends lives, my business was 💯better, there was no gamble 🎲, had my own home 🏡 was not struggling, it has been down hill since Trump has been gone, I have given up and thats not me, kust pray to God Trump wins and he will not be hurt 🤕 of he wins
The only election even worth considering unfair was the 2000 election, the closest election in American history. Trump just made it seem like the 2020 election should have been in his favor, but there is no evidence of that. He didn't just lose by one state, he lost by multiple. He was also the incumbent president during a crisis which made him that much more unpopular, plus the amount of controversies he had (e.g. being impeached).
Sure 2000 is a good example. Also 1876. If you are referring to 2020 than no that was a fairly decisive victory. Trump just has a fragile ego and doesn’t like to lose so he started the big lie to cope.
Key #7 leaves out one critical point - the "Social Unrest" during the Trump Administration was caused by the Democrat supporters and many other "Trump hate". Does that change the position of the key?
So it isn’t accurate when predicting a close race. Isn’t this expected to be an even closer race? Don’t trust perditions unless they come from the Bible.
Black white gay straight every one has to pay bills food and every thing else but democrat voters keep voting democrat I'm sick of hearing democrat voters saying democrats are four the pore and working class the way I see it if you vote democrat you must have a plenty of money that's something I don't have never forget this Obama years we were in a inflation Trump got in office brought the prices down way fast then Obama vice president got president same crap as Obama years im sick of hearing it because of covid and Russia I know if Trump did get in office he would bring the prices back down again all the voters that voted against Trump in 2016 I know thay enjoyed when he lowered the prices but yet did not vote four him in 2020 I'm 45 I remember the Obama years very well sow yes I keep telling democrat voters all this on her but no one never reply back
Me too, John. I'm about 10 years out from retirement and have a bird's eye view of how badly our standard of living is compared to 30 years ago. I don't believe the young ones can see how far south our standard of living has become. Anyone my age that's voting other than Trump is either independently wealthy or incredibly stupid.
@@twintopper8659 too old for more education , and I am retired. Dont need another job. I already worked 48 years with 20 of those working 2 full time jobs. My monthly income from investments is 4 times what I made working. So , No job for me. I spend my time fixing up old houses to resale.
My life was better under Trump more important I feel the majority was better under Trump, but I still have morals and just going with the flow isn't my thing no matter who is office....I believe in We the People and only We the People can make the changes we need, some people break my heart, this America come here, but love this country not what you left behind, if you can't go back...here you have a choice.
Both of these men were former Democrats. They are both bright and intelligent. They have realized the corruption in the Democrat party. I pray millions more will wake up.
Update on Third Party key: Kennedy Dropped out and endorsed Trump. The thing is Kennedy stopped campaigning but his name is still in the ballot in blue states and if I’m not mistaken also red states too, but his name isn’t on swing states to prevent trump from losing the swing states. I’m not trying to be bias but the key might go to Trump since Kennedy endorsed and his name is still in some ballots. (I hope I made sense but that’s from what I heard)
See the updated keys and final forecast here: ruclips.net/video/ZgLOfKGsMVc/видео.html
What robe rt f.kennedy Jr. Need. On ballots & debate presidential candidate election American voters choice
Total lie he did not predict 2020 correctly. We had a communist coup and our election was stolen.
Good analysis of the keys.
What about the biden getting forced out scandal and th border scandal dude you are bias
What about the fact that the third party candidate recently endorsed Trump. Will this be in favour of Trump based on the 13 keys?
Enough with the predictions, get out and vote
🙏 Amen!
Exactly.
Vote💙
Remember to vote wisely...
@@hermanhelfrich1747 on God!
Too many people refuse to learn from history.
The history bunk, from this moron. Now he does not even show his face.
Too may repeat History incorrectly as well ;)
I hope history repeats and He wins so that we all win.
And you got 89 likes others for Harris on this.... Got 9
Make America AMERICA Again
Begin listing the ideas that you have on how, we can come back later and continue as we get ideas
too late, far long gone and it was left to deteriorate to where it is today...worse to come
In other words you don’t know
VOTE DEMOCRAT! HARRIS/WALZ 2024!
@@daveb-d4t president Trump 2024!
You need to update since Kennedy has dropped out and is backing Trump
Kennedy was less than 5% and falling fast. In real terms he's a net zero effect
Another key!
We already know that she has been given the position as their puppet. And nothing we can do to stop it. They have surrounded Trump with a bunch of Dems including his choice for VP. All of the people who claim they are backing him are from school of skull and cross bones all have had the same person funding them at one time or another. By chance do doubt it. Just get ready for 4 more years of communism coming.
America is backing Harris
Traitor of his family
Free speech! Anti-war! Chronic health! Economy!
Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump!
What is: Saying Trump 2024 without saying Trump 2024.
Every election is about the economy... People vote with their wallets... I don't even have to say anything else.
Reagan won during a pretty bad recession the second time
If clutching straws help the night terrors go for it
@@ferguszade5594 Spoken like someone who doesn't buy groceries. And maybe you have given up on ever owning a home or new car. Maybe you don't mind living in the street. I get it, but it doesn't have to be that way. Yes, you have lived the last four year in hopelessness but that is not how things have to be. We can go back to when things were good for Americans. we can go back to not being involved in endless wars, we can go back to having secure borders to keep us all safe from crime, disease, drugs, and human trafficking. Don't give up.. Vote for YOUR LIFE, Vote for a better America. Vote Conservative and you can still live the American dream..
No project 2025!
Nah, we do not want Project 2025
Whose life was better a few years ago under Trump?
Everyone
90% of Americans - including those of my liberal friends!
N then he let you all DIE with Covid by claiming he took NO RESPONSIBILITY n also he didn't care with these words: IT IS WHAT IT IS, people are dying .."... To you, that's a life better when he was president... Sure!
Mine was!!!
Oh the good part when the country was shut down and everyone was in lockdown, WTF was better about that.
Make America Love Again!!!
Vote vote vote
VOTE ❤ for a RETURN TO PEACE AND PROSPERITY (AND FREEDOM)
Afghanistan withdrawal didn’t go well ?? It was an unmitigated disaster !!!
And the devastated families had to witness Joe Biden checking his watch while their loved one's coffins were being unloaded.
Blame Trump for that one
@@leeannebishop51 actually no … do a bit more research
@@leeannebishop51 Nope. Those 13 Marines killed were all on the Biden/Harris watch. While Biden checked his watch as their coffins were unloaded. Pathetic.
@@leeannebishop51 Biden was in charge. I'll blame him.
There’s no key for cheating?
The voodoo woman that tells the outcome of the election by squeezing a goats testicles is more accurate.
Hillary didn't give a speech when she lost because she didn't have one prepared because she "knew" that she would win but she underestimated Trump voters. So they made absolutely sure that Biden will get enough votes. What next, a blackout on the grid to prevent an election? With no grid, stores will go empty. People will get desperate and desperate people will get violent. Then martial law will be declared and they keep power, problem solved.
Good one! Is there a key for poll watchers being kicked out and suitcases and coolers being rolled in, as a friend of mine witnessed? Is there a key for an election worker LYING to poll watchers and the media about a "pipe leak" so that everybody had to leave, except the ones that were LYING? Is there a key for the election worker of 25 years who was fired because she discovered a box of pre-filled out ballots? Is there a key for the canvassers who audited addresses of mail-in ballots, only to discover vacant lots, strip bars, restaurants, etc...? And the think I find most frustrating is that the mainstream media has no concern about these issues. Which in my book, makes them guilty along with the ones committing the crime.
Accusations like that is
LITERAL TREASON!!
He lost, just like he lost the popular vote the year he won and LIED about winning in a "landslide". They proved in COURT that everyone on his side was lying.
No true Patriots are supporting that Tyrant, especially after he insults wounded soldiers.
Only cheating is done by republiCONS
Lichtman hasn't heard of the silent majority of voters yet.
Yes he has and they're all voting for Harris. Then the shit stain will go to prison where it belongs.
trump supporters aren’t silent they’re insane
Yeah........we are VERY Trump fatigued, and strongly PRO-CHOICE. We had enough of that 78 yo lunatic. Donvict is a one man crime spree.
Johnsmith must be part of the one percent.Remember the trillion dollar debt left after 4yrs.
If you're talking about Trumps miserable 1 term the deficit increased $7.8 TRILLION while Trump was in office.
The Debt is 35 trillion and 1/3 of it is from the Democrats in the last 4 years.
@@paulherring8959 The majority of that debt happened in 2020 due to COVID...Presidents for two decades have dealt with about 1 trillion in debt per year growth. Trump was on a path to 1 trillion per year prior to COVID and his 1 trillion per year was after his tax cuts, where Clinton, Bush and Obama all were at 1 trillion per year (only they did not have any tax cuts) meaning 4 trillion of the 7.8 trillion was from the Pandemic forward.
@@christownsend3979 None of your comment changes the FACT that Trump's spending during the pandemic was just as responsible for the run up of inflation as anything Biden did.
@@christownsend3979 And Congress was under Democrat control the last two years of Trump...and they wrote and passed the huge Covid deficits.
The "Social Unrest" key would favor an unscrupulous group that purposely wanted a certain candidate to win. I remember lots of this in 2020.
RFK is now with Trump...BOOM!
YES, BOOM BYE!! KAMALA FOR THE WIN!!
Old worm brain excites you?! OK, whatever helps you sleep better lol. 😂😡🤡
Drug shortages hit highest number since 2001, impacting patients, hospitals and pharmacies
I remember when toilet paper couldn’t be found.
Any @user ID is a phony!!!!! BEWARE!
@@nancyfried7239that was on Trump's watch
🇺🇸 trump ! 💯
6 to 6 and one undecided means this overall well produced video predicts nothing. It wil be interesting to see how the RFK dropout ultimately affects Lichtman's overall prediction.
And the winner was meant to be Hilary Clinton in 2016 and Trump in 2020. Nov 5th will be the only way to know.
This guy predicted that Hillary would lose in 2016, and Trump was not meant to win in 2020 that's ridiculous. Not only was he wildly unpopular at the time, it was in the middle of an economic crisis which he handled poorly. He was also impeached and did nothing valuable in office. There was no reason why Trump would have won the 2020 election, yet he wants you to believe so badly he should have won it.
He predicted trump
He predicated Trump in 2016 & Biden 2020.
😂 true i wish Camela will win just like Hillarious did
The only tough elections were 2000 and 2016.
He got one right, and one wrong.
50% record 😂
So many of these keys are subjective anyway!
The problem with the economy key is *why* gdp is up. It's because we have flooded the country with millions of additional workers. So the voters aren't any more productive - instead per legal worker they are probably less so.
Lictman's system is open to interpretation which can be influenced by personal bias.
Revised 818 thousand down .
Illegal gained 1.5.million jobs.
Citizens lost 5 million full time jobs.
Stag inflation explosion.
Fed lower interest rate
GDP is all federal government
Private sector fell to lowest level
Since 1970.
If a majority of Americans say they feel the US is in recession, Gallup poll specifically.
Litchman will have to turn a economic key false like in 1991 based on polls
there is a simple reality, the election math is against trump minus 20 percent of his republican base in reagan republicans who wont vote for trump.
normally there is an even number of democrat and republican voters so 10 percent of the independents determines who wins.
democrats get a high turnout and the independents wont matter much this election.
AMERICA NEEDS A CAPABLE AND ENIGMATIC PRESIDENT, AND COMMANDER IN CHIEF TO CLEAN THE MESS AND TRANSFORM THECOUNTRY
Trump is capable PM
YES. Not trump.
That’s Harris, the next president of the United States
Scary
Harris is just a puppet
Key 13 should go to Trump also.
🇺🇸 trump ! 💯
GDP is not a measure of people's WELL-BEING-factors such as cost of living(inflation), access to employment, access to affordable housing, public safety, level of disposable income are more important factors that will influence voters
yep, making slightly more money doesn't matter when housing costs have tripled. I'm not blaming everything on Biden as he did do some good. But the economy is not as bright for average people as this video implies.
Correct the economy is doing really really well for people on Wall Street, Main Street, not so much. The cost of housing is absolutely awful, both for renting and buying. Next wages versus food at the grocery store and insurance to keep your car on the road as well as gasoline and car repair cost, by the way car repair cost are also driving up insurance rates. None of these are good in fact they’re very bad. We the American people feel these costs acutely. I think the economy key goes to Trump.
@@rmikel14789 Without a doubt, my decision has been made for Trump. I hoped in 2020 I would be voting democrat in 2024 but it's not happening.
Yes
Be thankful Democrats took over in 2020 or people's WELL-BEING would be considerably worse. Recovery from covid and Trump would have been slowed, stopped or destructive if Trump remained in office.
I'll have to say, he states that debates and polling make no difference on his streams, however this is objectively not true. The debate is one of the biggest reasons Biden began being pushed out of the race. Also, polling DOES make a difference, Biden's polling was a big reason why donors and the Democratic party leaders told Biden he was cooked. It is unarguably different in this election, even dispute many supporters on his stream were saying "elections have had people saying that for years". For these reasons, I can't support it.
If you go back to what he was saying about Biden, not that he ever predicted it at that time, but he was leaning towards Trump winning which he probably would have won. Now that things have changed with Kamala, it has been re-evaluated.
Polls only give snapshots. In July 2012, Mitt Romney was beating Obama in every poll. Like literally every poll. But Obama still won. In 2004, John Kerry was beating Bush in every poll by as much as 10 percent in some, but Bush still win. Despite low polling numbers, Biden more than likely would have still won, maybe not by as much in 2020, but enough to still to ger to 270. I understand that this election was different as an incumbent and former president were running against each other.
@@robertvillarreal9105 not true! Lichtman touted that Biden had enough keys for reelection despite every factor, from health & party support to donors & polling saying otherwise.
If that claim of no diff is true then wtf happwned to biden after the debate, bs on yhis key to
The only tough elections were 2000 and 2016.
He got one right, and one wrong.
50% record 😂
So many of these keys are subjective anyway!
Hindsight is 20/20 and you people say this type of nonsense with so much confidence. Yeah, just throw out decades of being RIGHT in order to fit your bs narrative lol
The other elections don't seem hard only in retrospect.
@@Guy-cb1oh That’s not true at all.
1992 well no one was a prize that Bill Clinton won no one would’ve been surprised if Bush won They were polling basically dead even.
2012 Mitt Romney was actually pulling higher than Barack Obama and Allan call to two years early.
So there were 4 elections that A lot of people would’ve got wrong
2004 took longer to call than 2016
Trump gets the last key RFKjr gave his support to Trump.
You can also get rid of the asterisk on the economy with that 818k jobs downward correction
I'm not a big RFK fan, but I think it would be great if Trump made him the Director of the CIA.
Wrong. He became obsolete. He would have had to pull 10% or 5%, but now he's not doing either so it defaults to Harris. She's going to be the next President and the first woman President!! ✨🎈🎉🎊
But RFK jr.'s dropping out of the race means that there **isn't** a third-party candidate anymore, so the key goes to Harris.
Ppl will see right through what RFK Jr is doing. He couldn't get a position on the democratic side so he ran to the republican side only for political gain. Sad. After all the negative talk about them and Trump. Sad.. 😢😢
Biden’s economy grew for who? Because I had well more money when Trump was in office vs. Biden/Harris.
Inflation is way different from economy in general.
Thank you. I think this video was made by the dems.
@@michellesmith6558 Inflation influences the economy.
Ya lost jobs and Covid economy
Inflation and recession both suck!!
my perdition is Trump
So, this was not Lichtman's prediction. It was a left leaning prediction trying to use Lichtman's base.
No way in hell the evil witch can win apart from MASSIVE, widespread election fraud.
Lichtman has always sounded very neutral in the past with this predictions
This election, however, he has been big on social media admitting that he and his family are democrats and not for Trump.
His left leaning bias might actually Skew his thinking and interfere with his success in predicting the election outcome of 2024
So you're saying that he's lying and that he changed his algorithm (putting his lifes work and reputation on the line) so that it fits ONLY this years election 🤔?
Puerto Rico needs to start paying their way!
So this means that the person running and the amount of campaigning they do doesn't matter? As that accounts for one key. Also Trump is kind of a unique case being a president that has taken a break. Wouldn't that suggest in this modelling scenario much more weight on 2016-2020 should be taken when considering Republicans?
How come you didn't use inflation to adjust the long-term growth key?
We went from alzhimer,to menopause what a choice
the whole GDP argument, per capita and all that jazz. averages dont work so good when people are barely scraping by. averages and generalization are on the menu daily this time. ive never seen an increase of thousands a year in my salary WITHIN the government, and I would assume, many Americans haven't either. But I understand, broke people are outliers and hardly factor in the average, very interesting numbers, personally, I dont believe any of it. but hey, my vote- my choice. :)
Drop boxes should be illegal 😮
RFK JR is going to leave his own campaign and join trump. this will be a singificant development and shows RFK JR considers harris to be a significant threat to the health and well being of this country. his move will help trump significantly. if trump gains 5 points it could make the trump win
Who cares he didn't have the bushes the Cheyennes nor mike pence endorsement. Plus RFK wanted to bribe Kamala before he drops out and endorses Trum
Actually RFK tried coming to VP Kamala Harris first asking for a cabinet position and she said no. I just wanted to make sure you have the facts. Be sure to do your own fact checking. Check everything! It’s the only way to be sure you’re getting the truth. God bless!
JFK is a disgrace to society
This aged well
BULLSHIT! He asked Harris first to join their campaign! He's just looking for a job.
If it's fair, it shouldn't even be close this time.
The prediction forgets the Afeghanistan FIASCO,and down plays the border and consequent crime ,just to name a few.
THIS IS NOT THE PRESENT CURRANT POLE AS OF 8/26/2023. So I do not agree with this because RFK Jr dropped out in which people that poled for RFK Jr will vote for Trump. So Trump’s polling should go up.
THAT DID'NT EFFECT THE POLLING AT ALL, GUYS VOTE BLUE UP AND DOWN THAT BALLOT, POLLS DON'T PREDICT JACK, VOTES DO.
Are people voting for a President who is capable of handling the country's affairs (domestic & foreign) OR for someone who is going to be the first this or that to be elected as President.
Don’t know about you but I’m voting for the honest SANE adult in the room.
Wete voting for Trump. Oh what Joy
Voting for the adults in the room too. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz! 🇺🇸💙💯
The Only candidate who is capable of Anything is KAMALA HARRIS
voting for the most qualified levelheaded candidate to will bring our country forward both domestically and internationally. #HarrisWalz2024
3:34 The Dems DELIBERATELY kept RFK Jr out of the Dem contest. GOOD GRIEF!!!
Selling his soul for political gain...
WHY? TO JOIN A CONVICED FELON ,TRUMP AND RFK A DRUG ADDICT?
really you do not talk about illegals the high cost of food gas electricity and affording a home
Bush Senior lost because of the amount of Republican votes taken by independent Ross Perot - that’s about it
He also lost because he promised "read my lips, no new taxes" then Congress passed a tax increase that he wasn't able to veto....as it was overridden...we got new taxes, and bill Clinton
For the long term economy, not considering inflation is absurd. Simply having high inflation would make that key true if there gdp is increasing at all. Taking into account wage growth must be considered, as what’s important is not some arbitrary number but American’s sentiment about the economy.
👿👿never evil Kam👿👿
You failed to acknowledge Biden’s role in strengthening NATO and supporting Ukraine. Much more recent, memorable and significant than an awkward departure from Afghanistan.
First of all we have been the biggest supporter of NATO since it started. We actually owned it. BIDEN just wishes he did
God allows all leaders to come and go. If you are God fearing you will get his choice of leader if not you will get what you ask for. The Bible predictions have always proven true. God bless everyone
Last key belongs to Trump and they know it but were afraid to say so. How corny
As they say when you buy stocks, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
As they say in statistics, follow the confidence lol
I had a vision about Donald Trump becoming president for the first time two months before the 2016 election. In this vision, Trump won and tried to shake hands with Hillary Clinton, who wore a red dress, but she turned away. Trump then rode a scooter to the White House, where some military officers saluted him, while others were surprised and questioned if he was indeed the president-elect.
Recently, in 2024, I had another dream involving Trump. He had lost his re-election bid in 2020 and was sitting at a table full of fruits and flowers. He looked at me and said he would be back. The name "Xavier Frazer" was also written on his shirt. In a separate vision this year, I saw Trump and me walking together. I found a wallet on the ground containing Trump's ID card. I picked it up, alerted him, and he returned to retrieve it.
Congrats. Your cult leader now controls the thoughts in your unconscious brain. Your assimilation into the Borg is complete.
🇺🇸 trump ! 💯
I had a dream that you 💩 your 👖, I had another dream that you were the smartest person in SP. ED.
The result is 53% / 42%
Key 6 is b.s. nothing grew as far as employees added to the work force!People were just aloud to go back to their original jobs!!
Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️
Hello!! how do you make such monthly, I’m a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down of myself 😭 because of low finance but I still believe God
Thanks to my co-worker (Carson ) who suggested Ms Susan Jane ChristyThanks to my co-worker (Carson ) who suggested Ms Susan Jane Christy
She's a licensed broker here in the states🇺🇸 and finance advisor.
After I raised up to 525k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery….Glory to God, shalom.
Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
Given RFK just got on board with Trump America is getting back a common sense leader!!!! A true leader! Thank you Lord 🙏
Pray and vote 🎉
GDP increase doesn't matter if it doesn't keep up with costs. You forgot to take inflation into account. Of course GDP went up. we are at atleast 25% inflation since before covid.. which means you need 25% more money to break even, hence everything rises by 25% including GDP, but it's a false rise when compaired to inflation.. we can all tell when we go shopping. The Dollar value is much lower.. Using the SNP500 as a benchmark is a terrible idea, especially when it also doesn't reflect inflation.. If a stock increases by 12%, but the prices of everything increases by 17%, then you've effectively lost 5% of your money if you cash out the stocks. THINK PEOPLE! .... NEXT: Talking about LOW inflation means nothing. It simply means things are going up less this year than last year. Low inflation is STILL inflation.. don;t let these people fool you.. If you want prices to come down, you have to hear a word that NOBODY SAYS... "DEFLATION" That's when you hit 0 inflation and cross over to negatives, into deflation. Even this guy, with all his numbers, hasn't put 2 and 2 together yet. Everyone is brainwashed so well, they think low inflation is somehow a good thing.. No.. inflation is ALWAYS bad, because prices are STILL climbing!
Don't think Mr . dementia is the answer. Guessing you were never military and inflation is dropping.
@@carolynclemens7287 My whole family is/was military, (all the men) and no I don't think Biden is the answer, clearly. He's not even running now. So, moot comment.
Trump handled foreign policy way better during his term. There was less tension and more healthy fear from the other side.
"Inflation is dropping" - refer to my OP. Until it drops below zero, it means nothing. No politician has managed to accomplish it in 50+ years by policy. As long as we're stuck borrowing from the fed, they will continue to print money, and inflate the dollar. You have to reign in spending first, and cap what the fed can do to manipulate the money supply in the wrong direction.
You always end up with a rubber band effect in the economy after changing the money supply, in other words it always takes a few years (roughly 3-5) once the fed makes a move. See here: (take out teh spaces)
https ://upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/CPI_1914-2022. webp
@@carolynclemens7287 No Biden clearly isnt the answer, He's not even running so moot comment. And the alternative (Kamala) wants to have the fed print a shit load of money for subsidized housing costs, and student loan forgiveness... Which will increase prices even more.
My whole family is Military, (all the men)
As for inflation coming down, refer to my OP.
stupid ass YT won't let me drop a link to show the clear effect of the fed printing money. It deletes it.
2 weeks and 2,192 comments later will show you how people feel and are going to vote. Trump 2024
More votes for Harris everyday fool her rallies has more people where Trumps are nothing more the Cardboard cut outs
The majority of Americans has never been prioritized the other keys regardless of the economic, illegal migrants and the inflation is the most priorities of concerns.
What if RFK, Jr pulled an October surprise, what if he dropped out in October 2024 and then endorsed Trump?
By reading my tea leaves I can get 93% accuracy on a good day! A colleagues claims 94% by reading chicken entails.... :)
Dumb! Really, Really dumb!
RFK endorsed Trump. Does that affect the key?
It's about the third party guy pulling the 10% RFK Jr was down below 5% by the DNC key is true, goes to Harris.
Of course it counts!
Inflation is cumulative and 63% of Americans say we are on the wrong track
It is impossible to predict the unpredictable. The best indicator is the Vegas odds makers. They almost always win.
This man can not tell us who will win
Totally wrong on the economy...I would get your "facts" elsewhere
Right? How are they tweaking those numbers ? Must be counting corporate profits. Not the American people. And no scandal related to Biden? What about Treason? Selling us out for his family profit.
Gives too much credit to fake dnc
I left Dems too much gaslighting -about Biden's health, Kamala policies, Bidenomics, the border, racism, lawfare...
@@purpl-monkee354 So true! After Hunter's laptop lies by Biden and the liberal media, I can't believe people are stupid enough to still put their trust in them.
So after RFK endorsement one would have to deduce that the 7th and tie-breaking key goes to DJT.
No
please make an updated version of this
Its in the works. Hope to have it out before October
@@PikeProductions23 good to hear
@@PikeProductions23yo dude, how’s that new video coming along? I’m really looking forward to it😅
Overall, pretty good, but it goes to show just how arbitrary these keys are. Assigning key 2 tomHarris if the delegates vote for her is completely absurd. That’s just an idea pulled out of thin air. This key should be thrown out. It doesn’t apply because the candidate actually selected by the delegates was discarded because he did so badly in a debate they thought he had no chance of winning. The long term economy is arbitrary as well. For one thing, the numbers get revised, so no one knows if we are in an economy until after the fact. In 2008, for example, it was revised to show the country had actually entered into a recession already for something like 9 months. What mattered in 2008 was the sentiment about the economy, not whether or not it was technically in a recession.
Just look at Trump's four our years as president. Much better on every count than the last four. Revenue to the Treasury was much higher than before.
While the economy has been growing, inflation has outpaced the growth and Americans' pay is not increasing nearly as fast, so for the average American, we are in what feels like a major recession. Edit: As an example, food has increased in price by about 10% in my area in the past year. My income has increased by 1%. This is where the financials key(s) may actually get it all wrong on this election.
Lord God, save America from career Politicians. They do not care about America. All they care about is themselves and their Party interests. Lord, America belongs to You, regardless of whether people believe in You or not. Lord, I know a little bit about Politicians who put their personal interests above the interests of the Country. Thank You Lord.
Like the one intending to be dictator?
My life, my families life, my friends lives, my business was 💯better, there was no gamble 🎲, had my own home 🏡 was not struggling, it has been down hill since Trump has been gone, I have given up and thats not me, kust pray to God Trump wins and he will not be hurt 🤕 of he wins
Trumps assanation attempt gives the key to trump😊
I think it was staged. Within a few days there was no mark on his face
@@elijahjames8837 ugh. OK.
@@elijahjames8837
it's wasn't a cartoon that you are use to watching, it was an attempt by dems to save their power
Gods already called this one he sent an angel from heaven to save america period god.bless all an trump❤❤
@elijahjames8837 it hit the top of his ear, not face and it wasn't staged.
Since this video was made, RFK has endorsed Trump and is working to get him elected, so that key goes to Trump.
I don't believe Lichman's prediction this year. He's going to be wrong for a second time. Down to 80%
He got the same soft ware from the My Pillow guy
I wonder how RFK dropping out affects this key structure. Does it benefit Trump or Harris?
I'm afraid in the end it's going
to be 2020 all over again....
You and BET the DNC will and have cheated as the debate was totally stained by cheating by both ABC and both moderators.
How about confirming if our elections are even true first.
They already did, Trump appointed judges and courts looked into election theft and found no evidence of it
They already did, Trump appointed courts and judges looked into election theft and found no evidence of it
The only election even worth considering unfair was the 2000 election, the closest election in American history. Trump just made it seem like the 2020 election should have been in his favor, but there is no evidence of that. He didn't just lose by one state, he lost by multiple. He was also the incumbent president during a crisis which made him that much more unpopular, plus the amount of controversies he had (e.g. being impeached).
@@TheSnapback don’t forget Trump appointed judges in court found no evidence of election theft either, making his case even weaker than it already was
Sure 2000 is a good example. Also 1876. If you are referring to 2020 than no that was a fairly decisive victory. Trump just has a fragile ego and doesn’t like to lose so he started the big lie to cope.
I think u interpret the keys more unbiased than litchman himself
😂 whatever
The man with a wig loves democrats
He predicted Trump to win in 2016 lol wtf are you talking about
Key #7 leaves out one critical point - the "Social Unrest" during the Trump Administration was caused by the Democrat supporters and many other "Trump hate". Does that change the position of the key?
So it isn’t accurate when predicting a close race.
Isn’t this expected to be an even closer race?
Don’t trust perditions unless they come from the Bible.
My income has dropped by 12000 dollars not counting cost of living and inflation increasing. under Biden. So voting for Trump.
Black white gay straight every one has to pay bills food and every thing else but democrat voters keep voting democrat I'm sick of hearing democrat voters saying democrats are four the pore and working class the way I see it if you vote democrat you must have a plenty of money that's something I don't have never forget this Obama years we were in a inflation Trump got in office brought the prices down way fast then Obama vice president got president same crap as Obama years im sick of hearing it because of covid and Russia I know if Trump did get in office he would bring the prices back down again all the voters that voted against Trump in 2016 I know thay enjoyed when he lowered the prices but yet did not vote four him in 2020 I'm 45 I remember the Obama years very well sow yes I keep telling democrat voters all this on her but no one never reply back
🇺🇸 trump ! 💯
Me too, John. I'm about 10 years out from retirement and have a bird's eye view of how badly our standard of living is compared to 30 years ago. I don't believe the young ones can see how far south our standard of living has become. Anyone my age that's voting other than Trump is either independently wealthy or incredibly stupid.
GET ANOTHER JOB, OR MORE EDUCATION, TRUMP IS NOT GOING TO HELP YOU
@@twintopper8659 too old for more education , and I am retired. Dont need another job. I already worked 48 years with 20 of those working 2 full time jobs. My monthly income from investments is 4 times what I made working. So , No job for me. I spend my time fixing up old houses to resale.
Americans get out and vote Trump and Vance all ❤2024
Vote early and vote often! 😅😅😅
🇺🇸 trump ! 💯
Is it me, or does Pike Productions sound like Wendover Productions in his early days?
My life was better under Trump more important I feel the majority was better under Trump, but I still have morals and just going with the flow isn't my thing no matter who is office....I believe in We the People and only We the People can make the changes we need, some people break my heart, this America come here, but love this country not what you left behind, if you can't go back...here you have a choice.
a new god sent president, do not disturb
RFK Jr. Endorses Trump!
Both of these men were former Democrats. They are both bright and intelligent. They have realized the corruption in the Democrat party. I pray millions more will wake up.
@@jamesmortonjr.3722 Hoping you will wake up to the corruption in your party as well. The liberal media is the enemy of the people.
That isn’t a good thing! 💙🇺🇸💙🇺🇸
@TheLorileed This isn't just good, it'd GREAT! Trump 2024 🇺🇸
Lets see who Allan Lichtman chooses after the DNC.
trump has 9
Cowmala crazy laughter will be president of great nation USA? No way!
Update on Third Party key: Kennedy Dropped out and endorsed Trump. The thing is Kennedy stopped campaigning but his name is still in the ballot in blue states and if I’m not mistaken also red states too, but his name isn’t on swing states to prevent trump from losing the swing states. I’m not trying to be bias but the key might go to Trump since Kennedy endorsed and his name is still in some ballots. (I hope I made sense but that’s from what I heard)
Isn't there a key against a convict ex president?
It was all trumped up charges thinking it would cause him to lose votes it has only made him stronger go trump
Makes him charismatic. Key to Trump
The key for weaponizing the legal system goes to Democrats.
Nope, it helps him. Every time people see he is being persecuted by politically motivated witch hunts, he goes up in the polls.
I'm Traveling from Louisiana back to South Carolina to VOTE 👍👌✅🙌😎TRUMP 2024♥️♥️♥️
Of course you are to cheat and vote where you don’t live smh
You'd have to be a resident in S.C.
@@earlofmar7987 I Am 💪💪💪
@@samuelpowell3376 😀😀😀😀😀
🇺🇸 trump ! 💯
minnesota here ...
This is determined incorrectly.
Uhhh....your assessment of short-term economy is wrong. Lichtman himself said this key is true for the WH party
The keys are subjective...and I saw him speak on this in person....
Trump better win the Trump Train is going to get loud and say it proud