‘It’s Shocking How Badly Connected India And Sri Lanka Are’
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- Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
- What does the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a Marxist-Leninist communist party, as the President of Sri Lanka in a run off with 42 per cent of the vote on Sunday mean for Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, particularly India-Sri Lanka relations? AKD, as he is known, is also the leader of the socialist political alliance Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB), or National People's Power (NPP), which he established in 2019. The JJB alliance, which won 3.8 per cent of the vote in the last Presidential elections in 2020.
And does the fact that he leads a socialist alliance mean the new government will be pro-China? Those were some of the questions we asked Nilanthan Niruthan. the Executive Director of the Centre for Law And Security Studies in Colombo and a reputed geopolitical analyst.
“Our foreign policy is often the result of whoever's in power, rather than on fixed strategic issues. So it's too soon for us to tell which way AKD would go in terms of alignment,” says Niruthan, who frequently writes for international publications on diverse issues like global security, international law and geopolitical trends. He is also a lecturer at the National Defense College, the highest institution of military education in Sri Lanka.
“The official position right now is non-alignment, much like the standard Sri Lankan foreign policy over the last several decades has been. But there are questions over whether that can even be practical in today's day and age. Can a country like Sri Lanka actually thrive by being nonaligned in a multilateral world?
As for being pro-china, this is not a mandate to turn Sri Lanka into a Marxist country as per the JVP vision or anything like that,” he says. “This was simply a mandate to deviate from and rectify many of the mistakes that were made in the past, and it was an expression of great anger and dissatisfaction for what's happened in the past, and also a call for hope, a call for a new kind of politics. In a way, it's interesting because you could almost see parallels of the Trump election and, even the BJP's rise to national power in India, where it's almost seen as a symbol, as a fight against dynastic politics, as a draining of the swamp, as a beacon, electing someone who can hold the people accountable for the plunder of the past.”
If anything, AKD has been extremely critical of the way in which China has dealt with Sri Lanka, whether it's the way in which national strategic assets like Hambantota port, or the way in which we borrowed large sums, unsustainable sums of money to the point where we found ourselves in a debt trap,” he adds. “He, (AKD) has been highly critical of all of that. So under AKD presidency, maybe he will have a protectionist foreign policy where he does not want foreign powers involved here too much.
Did being known as pro-China or Pro India make a difference in who won this election?
No, says Niruthan. “These elections were fought predominantly on different issues. Number one was the economy, but more importantly, it was an expression of a lot of both anger and hope that we saw materialize two years ago. So in a sense, that anger and that hope for a better future, it's, it's a synergy of both hope and anger that is still present.
“So there is a pro India feeling in the sense that there is an acknowledgment that India was the major act, that intervened to save Sri Lanka from a big financial disaster. But many of these decisions are not made based on that. Some people just hate China for the sake of it. Some people just hate India for the sake of it.
But despite the goodwill, “if you look at the basics, both the digital connectivity and the business connectivity and any kind of economic connectivity between the two countries in general, considering how close we are, it's absolutely shocking how badly connected India and Sri Lanka are. And I think this is also because of foreign policy being held hostage to individual regimes,” he says.
To get a deeper perspective of the Indo-Sri Lankan dynamics from a Sri Lankan expert, and what New Delhi can do to build on the goodwill it has generated so far, watch the full interview.
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For our Indian friends here, it's important to clarify that the opposition from AKD and the Sri Lankan people to the Adani deal is not because Adani is from India. Adani is not India. We oppose the deal because it was not awarded through a transparent and open tender process. Additionally, the terms of the deal are unfavorable to Sri Lanka. AKD's view is, Sri Lanka will prioritize transparency and the best interests of our country, while India holds a special place in our hearts as both a neighbor and, in many ways, a relative...
good explanation machan
Fair point. India's only sensitive point is Chinese military installation in Indian ocean of any sort. Rest is not a sticking point of any sort, we really do not have/(accurately should not have ) is influence on one's choices.
China is mapping the ocean floor with those "research " vessels... to facilitate their submarines, getting close to India. Just FYI why India reacts to these "Research" vessels, the way it does. Most may not understand clearly why India overreacts to these.
War is coming, it looks almost inevitable now given how China is claiming the entire ocean, and how XI is reaching the end of his reign making it more likely for this to happen.. The troop deployment to the north is a precursor to their action on the east. Just thought context is important to understand reactions.
Agreed. Most people understand. We are not influenced by YT TPR chasers
Perfect explanation.
I hope and expect our Sri Lankan friends to also expect and demand the same policy from AKD and all politicians towards China and Chinese projects as the Chinese make the most opaque and unjust deals worldwide.
If that doesn't happen, I hope you can understand our worries about AKD and the Sri Lankan Govt.
Having said that Indians and Sri Lankans need to keep politics aside and build our bonds better and stronger.
A perfect, clear-cut explanation of the whole misunderstood concept of AKD's vision.
Firstpost & wion should see this. Excellent unbiased discussion
Firstspot and WION had no analsis or facts in their journalism thats sad
Absolutely.
Winon and Palky Sharma is like Modi's Lap dogs Jumping up n down to his wishes.
Great discussion with deep insights. Palki Sharma is a big garbage back when comparing hers to this discussion
Palki is Modi's Pet 😂😂
They liked your comment 😂
Even Indian YT news channels who have millions of subscribers did not do this kind of analysis. I should say this is the best one so far.
Very true, just look how Firstpost - it’s really disturbing and disgusting
I agreed. After watching most Indian Media reports of AKD'S win this is the best explanation about geological politics. Many Sri Lankans have given biased opinions to Indian media but this is the REAL TRUTH. I think mist Indian Media making unnecessary fear but Sri Lankan policy on India will remain the same.
This is our expectation as a Sri Lankan. Good discussion. Well said Nilanthan. This should be a viral video.
Sir, how do you see AKD's real policies and decisions on ground towards India ?
Very well articulated soothing discussion to listen and learn. Thanks both!
Great analysis... btw this Sri Lankan guy has a very nice accent
AKD is not anti india but anti Adani who did not come through proper investment procedure .
Well said Nilanthan, Good Discussion.
Even the Sri Lankan expert made the error of referring to JVP as the party of the new President; mind you it is NPP! Well spoken Sri Lankan rep.
Perfect explanation so far
I like the expression “synergy of anger and hope”; cannnot explain better than that; in a largely buddist culture driven country, in fact anger can be harnessed to synergy with hope, without leaning towards a failed nation
HATS OFF TO BOTH OF YOU ❗👏 BEST discussion I've found on this so far... Excellent Analysis 👍 You really put it well.
I really do hope that AKD will be able to make Sri Lanka great again❗ He's the last hope we have.
Hands down, the best conversation that was had on this matter. Great work on both of your parts.
I really don’t think that India has to worry about AKD. Why? After his tour of India, AKD confirmed that he assured he would not let anyone use Sri Lankan land, air, or sea against India. Even though the JVP is built on communist ideas, the NPP is a rebranded version that does not take these ideas to extremes. India is a growing economy, and going against India would be like shooting oneself in the foot. And let me congratulate you-this is one of the best conversations ever made regarding AKD and India.
AKD is not hard leftist or marxist leader. They have modernized their politics. They clearly say that India is their neighbor and cooperate with India. And that they follow a non-aligned foreign policy.And they say that transparency in every transaction is important to them.
Excellent analysis post the election. Request to u sir pls fix the audio problem when the host is speaking
Perfect explanation Mr.Nilanthan
Can you publish your channel on podcast? It will be a great resource for the listeners. Thank you.
some of our series are on podcasts. what exactly do you mean? each video?
@@StratNewsGlobalyeah having these videos in podcast form will make it much convenient. This is the most intelligent discussion on Sri Lankan election so far.
Such a well educated representative!
AKD got 56 lakhs that is 42.31% votes not 45 lakhs.
AKD is not Pro china
Excellent analysis thank you .
Very productive dialogue........
Well said Nilanthan ❤
Very nicely explained
Srilanka will and should develop on the principles of non alignment. Participating in India's success story as an emerging powerhouse and investments from China, US, and the EU should be nurtured. India, being a part of the Quad and perhaps participating in AUKUS, must be of a security concern to China.
Using Adani India is trying best to create problems in Srilanka in order to play the geopolitical game in our lands.citizens are not so foolish.
If india has to do something for Srilanka , india must avoid interfering the politics and playing tricks using Tamils , planning to build bridges connecting lands.
Sri Lankan President Mr. Anurakumara Dissanayake said that the Sri Lankan sea and air will not be given to anyone for any activity that threatens India's national security. I lovingly remind India that no previous president has made that statement
Srilanka would always work for its own interest. Doesn't matter if it embraces india or China. Srilanka has always emphasized that it would not jeopardize India's security concerns. But India's interest in Srilanka goes beyond their security concerns. That’s something to worry about because, india has always interfeared in Srilankan politics 😮
He, a strong advocate for free markets in Sri Lanka, transformed the JVP from a far-left party into a centrist one, blending socialist roots with more moderate, market-driven policies. AKD 🤝
Great analysis. 🧡🧡🧡
Thanks a lot man.please teach palki about these things
Good explanation.
Not JVP, but NPP
If ADANI Wants to Invest in Sri Lanka They Need to Change their Policies to be More Suitable For Sri Lanka and Let's be Clear we don't need Lots of Interference. From Foreign Countries ( India , China, US )
Please be advised that Sri Lanka has the potential to achieve energy self-sufficiency solely through wind power, making energy security a critical priority. Therefore, it is essential that we do not allow India to dominate or dictate the terms of our energy policies. AKD represents the change that many have longed for, bringing an end to 76 years of family-dominated politics. Only now has Sri Lanka truly become independent.
It is crucial that AKD and his party be given the opportunity to govern the country and lead us forward. Corrupt influences from India and China must refrain from interfering in our domestic affairs and political processes. As a sovereign nation, we are determined to rebuild our country, stone by stone, with full transparency and integrity under the leadership of the AKD government. This is why we elected a leader who is capable and honest.
For tourism the immigration service needs a clean up😊
Dont use lakhs is an indian numbering system and isn't recognised elsewhere
@WION This is how it should be done…
As far as renegotiations with IMF are concerned, NPP does nt intend to negotiate the parameters. What they want to renegotiate is how we go about achieving thise parameters. Counterbalancing of variables, so to speak, to achieve the same answer in the proposed formula
Your foreign policy, is shamefull towords Sri Lanka.
Look how palki sharma in Vion
Talks about us.
What about sethu samudra.
Giving treaning to LTTE
Violating our air space.
So and so
Whay ? Mind your own business , we are a indipendant country.
China is your neighbors .
Why you worry about they are in indian ocean (sorry Sri Lankan sea)
You are responsible for our 30 year war. And this fanancial crisis
China didnt do anything wrong.
Thats you
Indian media should focus on their own issues instead of creating unnecessary tensions! Sri Lanka is an independent nation, and we make decisions for our people. Stop the propaganda!
The IMF deal will almost stay intact in the larger framework. However, there is room for minor changes within this large framework. That's what is going to happen.
AKD is central left. He directly says he consider India before China.
Palki Sharma from first post is I think is trying to destroy the friendship we have towards India.
Adani is not india , india is not adani 😊
❤️ From 🇱🇰
Jai hind
I still can't understand why these Indian media outlets are labeling Anura Kumara as a Marxist without any basis. My Indian friends, Anura is not a hardcore Marxist. Although the party he came from was leftist, the NPP is a democratic political movement that is neither extreme left nor right-wing. Please refrain from spreading misinformation
❤❤
The political party once adhered to Marxist ideologies, but the new movement emphasizes its socialist and democratic values, as outlined in their manifesto. However, the Indian media continues to propagate false claims, seemingly attempting to manipulate global public opinion. It appears they wish to discourage powerful nations from engaging with Sri Lanka without their influence. This is highly regrettable.
akd wants to remain neutral
actually we dont care about your country, your policies, anything about you. your agendas on srilanka is now over. what we care is our country only. mind that carefully
Big brother India rescued SL in 2022.
AKD is not china or indian anti he is srilankan president you wrong
7:41 so he basically lied about renegotiating the IMF deal ? Is that what he is saying?
Frankly, either your guest is deliberately sweetening up the analysis for the Indian audience, or is working for a think-tank which relies on Indian funding (or both). His analysis cannot be considered objective, and a clear illustration of this is how he considers AKD's criticisms of the IMF agreement and the Adani port deal as mere political sloganeering, and his other possible opposition to China as his serious position. Chinese debt is a "debt-trap" but IMF agreement must be "complied with" as if there is no possible criticism of this debt. Contracts to Chinese companies are "misguided" but contracts to Adani are "necessary for development". In one case there is a clear ideological position, in the other an almost wilful pretension of neutrality. Your essential issue is that you get the debt crisis completely wrong. Sri Lanka is not the only country in a debt crisis, most recently, Kenya recently had riots due to IMF structural adjustment, Egypt is on the brink of default. And this is just the latest developments. Since 2020, 2/3rd developing countries have been judged to be at risk of default, and the G20's DSSI and Common Framework were initiated precisely for debt reconstruction. You don't understand how private bondholders made merry through the commodity market boom of the 2000s. Even in Sri Lanka, private bondholders owned the majority of the debt, while bilateral creditors owned not more than 30%, with China alone constituting only 10% of the debt.
The Hambantota narrative is a myth which has been debunked for almost 5 years now, most famously by the most respected Chinese debt scholar Deborah Brautigam herself. Secondly, you have no understanding or perception of the international financial architecture, and the role of the IMF. Entire Latin America and Africa's economies were bled through austerity in the 80s and 90s and eventually they didn't recover from a structural adjustment programme but from a debt relief effort which corresponded with the commodity markets boom. Where was China in this debt-trap? Your fundamental issue is that you take for granted rivalry between India and China (it doesn't have to be, China certainly has never called India its opponent), and India's ability to actually compete with China. Then you strangely assume India has been uniquely magnanimous in Sri Lanka debt crisis, when China also accepted a $3.4 Billion haircut. In fact, it was the first among the bilateral countries to reconstruct its debt repayments. But the problem doesn't principally lie in the bilateral countries debt, it is the private bondholders who run the international financial architecture, and IMF makes sure their debts are repayed without any cuts.
As for this weird power projection between India and China. is only involved in Sri Lanka because it is in the subcontinent. China has credit networks in more than 100 developing countries. If AKD has to actually confront the IMF (which you dismiss strangely, given how severely critical his party always has been of the IMF), he has to use China as a countervailing option for finance. India is important for Sri Lanka, but it cannot fulfill a challenge as serious as this. I think Indians will have to somewhere swallow the pill that it is a four times smaller economy than China with terrible development indicators, and it is in no shape to be the global hegemon like Indians keep aspiring for it to be. When you are fed by wrong premises and an ignorance of history and a guest who seems eager to appease your worldview, you will inevitably end up having a mediocre discussion like this which will lead to wrong conclusions.
What your long post very conveniently leaves out is that China REFUSED to restructure the debt at the height of our crisis and agreed to budge only AFTER many other nations stepped in to help us. So don’t treat us like fools and lie to us that China generously waved off billions of dollars because of benevolence. We know how all you big powers operate, we don’t need your long propaganda posts masquerading as factual analysis.
That's an excellent Axiom from you.
One of the most accurate analyses and interviews so far about the current political situation in Sri Lanka.
Good insight from Nilanthan, i believe that AKD and the NPP will work closely with India, the mandate itself will require the strengthening of the India + SL relationship, currently its not where it should be.
Adani is selling one unit for $ 0.43 to India and $ 0.83 to Sri Lanka. This is an interest concern by India.
@milindawijeratne I believe that we are moving towards an era that will change the conventional relationship we have with India, so far it has been based on individuals, not on proper policy, but once this dynamic changes we will see a lot of positive interactions betweenourtow nations, especially on energy projects and regional security.
Nilanthan is the indication of the young intellectuals in the country, who have been shut out because of the old political system. These young people are well educated and intelligent. They are ready to take the country forward. India is naturally concerned because it is the most powerful country in SE Asia. India won’t be bullying SL, but the future of the two countries will be as partners for the benefit of both countries. Chinese influence will be very limited, but old debts have to be paid back.
Wion and Palki present this in very biased way. We believe AKD will handle these two countries wisely. We don’t want to be pro China or pro India
Well explained Nilanthan
Sri Lanka has always supported the Non-Aligned Movement, and the new leadership continues to uphold this commitment.
Very well said Nilanthan 🙌
Constructive analysis. Thanks.
AKD is a man of his words. He treats India as a big brother of ours. Japan is the best friend.
Very enlightening discussion as always
....Two Erudite gentlemen practising the Art of Conversation ...
100 accurate that's how we see things ♥️
Very positive discussion..
Thanks to both…
very good explanation
Great discussion and I should say that WION and Fistpost should take a lesson from it. WION and Firstpost reporting is totally out of reality and biased.
Very interesting to have enlightened the ordinary citizens of SL as well with succint and clear replies to the sensible questions asked
by Mr Sengupta.
Well done
There was a very important point that Nilanthan raised about reciprocal investment and trade. For a very long time there has been this debate about how India is so protective of its markets but when it comes to SL and our local businesses it is so difficult to penetrate the Indian market, for starters if India can be a little bit more accommodative on that aspect they can establish a position in SL that can never be touched by any country. The next important sticky point is the involvement of RAW in local matters, there is deep seated suspicion about that aspect. India scored big with its gesture in aftermath of the economic meltdown. India has pole position in the race, they have to be less arm twisting and be more genuine and SL is theirs to have, whilst SL will benefit tremendously from a close open relationship with India too.
We need india support because we're close neighbors ❤ 🇮🇳🇱🇰
Tamil peoples role for next 5 years is here is to realise it is a global world now and we must shape it to MAKE SURE China invests in Jaffna and East and ensure AKD is also protected in this interest politically. Make India pay a price for all my Tamil kith and kin people, whose anguished screams were lost in a war for INDEPENDENCE will be heard FOREVER.
India should be India . Sri Lanka should be Sri Lanka.
Leave the country alone india should not try to grab SL and its resources by force...
That's the biggest problem. India has acquired resources of Sri Lanka by force or by bribing corrupt politicians. This is the reason most Sri Lankans are not in favour of India. In the long run India has done most damage to Sri Lanka than any other country
Just what resources of yours has India 'grabbed?' It's China that's busy eating up your country and you abuse India-- the only country that stood by you during your worst times! Ingratitude is too small a word!!
@@prasannapeiris8466 100%accurate your comment is the most suitable!
But who is this Useless sri lankan... "debt trapped by china.. but locked in by IMF...."
@prasannapeiris8466 It is more like resource trapped by india.. Zelensjy sold his country to blackrock for cheap...
AKD is not from elite political dynasties in Sri Lanka. He survived many death attempts during his life. He is a seasoned politician and a simple altruistic character. His policies are vehemently against corruption and self sustainability. The time will tell how long before Ranil Wickremesinghe and the old gang pull rug under his feet!
Regarding the election in Sri Lanka and AKD winning...."You can fool all the people sometime and some people all the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time".
Sri Lanka President Disanayaka Sir Congratulations 🙏🇱🇰❤❤❤❤
we want india and love you too. we two like brothers. Definitely AKD dont make any insecure thing to india. he promis he dont give land, air and ocean territory against India to any countries. come Sri Lanka and visit us.
He went to see Amul not because he had any issues with Amul Sir , he wanted to see how Amul cows give more milk than our Sri Lanka cowes. He mentioned this in one of his meetings how Amul cowes give more milk and Sri Lanka also should follow the same methods to our milk industry.
One who is not pro-China at this juncture of history has no right to claim himself to be a Leftist! For all its omissions and commissions, the PRC deserves solidarity and support from all those who cherish peace, cooperation and progress!
Very bad sound/acoustics. Can you not use better microphones?
Ha, Ha finally somebody has recognized that fact! BTW here is a trivia question. Name one country in the vicinity of India which has good connection with India.
This is the only analysis that truly explains what's new government stance on foreign policies. I hope it reaches a wider audience. Thank you!
Not 45 laks
Its 57laks+
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has articulated a neutral and balanced foreign policy aimed at benefiting the country. He has committed to awarding projects to foreign investors through a transparent tender process, ensuring fairness and integrity. President Dissanayake recognizes India’s strategic position in geopolitics and assures that India has no reason for concern. As citizens and supporters of our new president, we deeply respect our neighboring country, India, and view it as a big brother. We kindly request your support for President Dissanayake, who is known for his kind-hearted, down-to-earth, and humble nature. Additionally, he is firmly committed to combating corruption and bribery, ensuring a clean and transparent administration.
Please dont worry about how Srilanka would get through this difficult passage. We know to sacrifice for our beautiful mother Lanka.AKD is very capable of takinking care of it. We are a soverign nation and we do not want bullies shedding crocodile tears for us. You got more problem back in India which you need to worry about. I am srilankan tamil and we hope our foolish tamil leaders will not get brain washed by bullie once again.. We are non alliegned nation.We want to be friendly with all nations.Not in a position India is in with all her neighburs. Tell me which country in the world like India. For us Western, China and you are the same.Please do not drive wedges between nations and people living peacefully.
AKD assured India in person that his govt will not do anything that will affect India's current geopolitical stance.
As a Sri Lankan Tamil person here, we now peacefully live with each other. Please India don't make any wrong about our country. Does India want to cause problems between Sinhalese and us for their political consistency?
Npp is no more a left lean party, but a center left opinions. JVP had a history with against with the indian expansionism during 70-80s. In that era violence was the reply of former government against their opinion. Now, Npp has a very clear opinion with relationships between nations, while u are addressing him a marxist, he openly against with chinese corruptions. And recently before the election AKD had a tour to india and observe indian technologies and other things for the purpose of education. He clearly said that we have lot of things to educate from the maha bharat. Also he planning to work together with Amul and grab their good qualities❤
Sri Lanka should not go and beg money from China to avoid debt trap. Don’t beg.
Anura D will be a pragmatic president. SriLankas interest will be at the top.
China has its good and bad...India will always be a good and respected neighbour. They are not enemies of SL...and India shouldn't compare itself to China. SL will be friends with both. India and China should fight their own battles and not pull SL into being the bone here.
Nilanthan Niruthan's responses are very lucid and clear. The host meanwhile seems very unsure and even apologetic.
Good analysis. The NPP is not a Marxist entity. It is a centre-left coalition, focused on efficient governance, and a sensible foreign policy. By 'sensible' I mean maintaining strong relations with India, and ensuring that Colombo maintains equidistance between key global powers. The Indo-Lanka relationship will be prioritized.
You are correct. We want 0 corruption. We don't want politicians who earn commissions from projects.
why is the indian media plastering "MARXIST" all over AKD... even in Sri Lanka we dont use the word Marxist to describe the NPP, "Socialist" i can understand.
The anchorer has the guts to admit that politicians take their cut from contracts between government and private company.
India's foreign policies have raised concerns due to their perceived self-interest and efforts to exert influence over neighboring countries. Many nations in the region have expressed frustration with India's approach, which is seen as overbearing and sometimes dismissive of local sovereignty. Additionally, there is growing unease about India's promotion of certain cultural practices and labor policies that may not align with the values or governance structures of other countries. In contrast, China's foreign relations, while not without their own complexities, may offer a more stable and mutually respectful approach in comparison.
Why Indian media is so ignorant about SL politics, yet making fellow indians suspicious about new SL government? Don't you guys know previous long term ruling parties like SLFP and SLPP also so called "Left-Leaning" parties?