I couldn’t disagree more about Suzuki and Dach … When you started talking about Suzuki not being a true number 1C you started to lose me… When you started to say Dach is a weak 2C you completely lost me… I’ll just leave it there, I just couldn’t disagree more.
I said Suzuki proved me wrong which is why he’s rated an A- (strong first line) Dach has only played in 57% of possible games so far in his career due to injuries. Thats not a good bet for a long term 2C.
@@NBIHockey I think that's right, but if this is a 2024-25 assessment, it should reflect Slafkovsky's trajectory. It feels like, yeah, B- is fair for last season, but I would forecast him at B+ for the upcoming season. I also think you're underrating Newhook by as much as a full grade. I'm not a Joel Armia fan at this point in his career, and it has nothing to do with his contract. Feels like we are not watching the same guy. I would love to see Montreal move him to a contender for a decent return. Guhle's another guy where I don't think your grade reflects his trajectory -- for the upcoming season he should be B to B+. Thanks so much for the deep dive.
The grades aren’t projections. They’re purely based on a players last 3 seasons with a heavier weight on last year. Adding projections would leave too much room for personal bias to creep in. I wanted to make this as objective as possible.
As for Armia. His numbers back up my elite defensive ability claim, especially on the PK. He ranked among all forwards 7th in xGA/60 shorthanded 3rd in SHD goals above replacement 5th in total defensive goals above replacement The issue is MTL’s PK especially isn’t very strong as a unit so they’d still give up quality chances with him on the ice, the benefit I guess of me using InStat to watch individual players is I can go back and rewatch plays a bunch of times and focus on one player’s movement, positioning etc. which you can’t do while watching a game live as easily.
@@NBIHockey I'm a numbers guy too, so I can appreciate the advanced stats. I'm sure Armia is an asset on the PK unit, not disputing that. Just not impressed with his overall game any more (and I used to like him quite a bit earlier in his career). He might be one of those guys with good numbers who doesn't pass the eye test.
Projections don’t affect the ratings. I’m only judging players purely off what they’ve done so far in the NHL. And based off that, yes MTL’s blueline got worse.
@NBIHockey so based on what your saying , with your model , last season Chicago drafting Bedard and making him the 1c on the team would be a downgrade from the previous seasons 1c .
I’m saying losing an NHL level D and not bringing in any new players into your system is a downgrade inherently. The reality is until a player actually plays in the NHL any rating of how they will play is just a guess. Too much personal bias would come into projecting player ratings. I literally say in the video “I believe they could take a massive leap defensively” but the ratings are purely based off what players have already done, none of them are projections. There’s a chance Hutson for example comes in and just can’t find success in the NHL because of his size or the lack of open ice given to him, I don’t think that’ll be the case but there’s no way of knowing until he actually plays.
Why would you be down on Slaf, who was 18, by the way. He gonna be a monster. There is certain characteristics that make real hockey players. Slaff has them all. Certified #1 pick.
He was 19 last year but he has yet to put together a dominant and consistent stretch of games over the course of a full season. Even in Jr the biggest knock against him was just how inconsistent he’d be. He showed flashes of being a real top 6 player this year but I really need to see him truly find that consistency. You can have all the tools in the world but if you can’t properly use them consistently then it doesn’t really matter.
@@NBIHockey He was very much consistently performing at the level of a top 6 forward over the second half of the season. He had 35 points in his last 40 games. Saying he's been "showing flashes of being a real top 6 player" this year might be the biggest understatement of the century. Reminder that Slaf had to play with guys like Josh Anderson for like half the season which significantly dragged down all his stats including his analytics and prevented him from producing at a top 6 level over the entire season
Your the only one besides myself that really liked Kovacevic and imo they did not HAVE to move him.I feel they are big time over rating Guhle and Reinbacher and although I like Mailloux he is not good enough defensively. Another very big problem is I do not feel management or coach are willing to give a fair shake to prospects imo this team is mostly set waiting for maybe ONE more forward.A team moves as it;s top two lines move and like I said other than the Russian the top 2 lines are done. I said two years ago that if Nick/Cole and Slaf are our first line we have NO CHANCE winning a cup. The best defensive responsible forward is RHP nothing else is clsoe.I can't sit ehre and write a book on it but RHP keeps his head up looks over hsw shoulder and unlike the others stays within a stick reach of the point men. The habs worst problem is how poorly we cover or DON'T cover the points it is like in our end we are playing 3 versus 5.
I think KH was avoiding losing Justin Barron for nothing. The d-corps is already quite crowded, Kovacevic was good for us but Barron's ceiling is much higher, gotta let him play.
Bit harsh on Newhook. He was solid at centre after his injury but especially his last 20 games or so, closing out the year. A 52pts pace playing with wings like Armia, Roy and Gallagher and no decent dman behind him shows he could deliver 60pts and be a dependable 2C despite not being able to carry or be the focal point of a 2nd line. If you have Suzuki, Slaf and Demidov at a PPG or higher, CC at 70, NH at 60 and say Roy at 50, that's a potent top 6 capable of contending.
I can’t really grade a player higher for having a good 20 games when the rest of his numbers point to him being the 3rd liner he’s currently at. Plus there are a lot of things during that time to point to him just going on a bit of a PDO run. It’s definitely way too early to view him as a true 2C
@@NBIHockey "I think that they overpaid for Alex newhook I don't see him becoming like a full-time top six forward especially if this team's going to want to compete right like he's somebody who should be on your third line as like the second best player in your third line as a like a cup team" That's the harsh part to me, not particularly the grade.
I don’t think he’s shown me anything to point to him being a strong 2C at this point in his career. Him becoming like a Gourde - level player isn’t really an insult I don’t think?
Dach has only played in 57% of possible games so far in his career because of injuries. I think I’m pretty justified in thinking he’s not a stable option as a 2C based on that fact alone.
@@NBIHockey Totally justified, this comment probably stems from the fact that Dach looked like our best player last preseason... he needs to play more
How old are you to writting this kind of comment? The guy just take time to show his analyst. You are not agree with him? You probably don’t saw any of his orher video « Deep dive »? So why?!?
@labvince88 How old am I? Lol, I'm 55. I watched the Habs win the cup in 76, 77, 78, 79, 86, and 93. I've played the game since I was 5 and still do. I've seen every kind of player under the sun. Kirby Dach is a gamer. He's had bad luck. He's still able to perform at the level expected when drafted. You just pretend to know. After this season, you will eat your words. Cheers
@@NBIHockey Unless you're a super dedicated Habs fan, there's no way in hell that's true lmao. I bet you "basically watched all the games" of all the teams you analyzed right even though that's literally physically impossible right?
I couldn’t disagree more about Suzuki and Dach … When you started talking about Suzuki not being a true number 1C you started to lose me… When you started to say Dach is a weak 2C you completely lost me… I’ll just leave it there, I just couldn’t disagree more.
I said Suzuki proved me wrong which is why he’s rated an A- (strong first line) Dach has only played in 57% of possible games so far in his career due to injuries. Thats not a good bet for a long term 2C.
If Armia continues to show up, I will be down with resigning him to a proper contract. I really liked him last year.
Maybe but at 32 with a low offensive IQ, I think MSL and HuGo look elsewhere.
Have you actually watched the games. Often and increasingly, Salv was the line driver.
I watched every Habs game this past season. He isn’t. And the data backs that up too.
@@NBIHockey I think that's right, but if this is a 2024-25 assessment, it should reflect Slafkovsky's trajectory. It feels like, yeah, B- is fair for last season, but I would forecast him at B+ for the upcoming season. I also think you're underrating Newhook by as much as a full grade. I'm not a Joel Armia fan at this point in his career, and it has nothing to do with his contract. Feels like we are not watching the same guy. I would love to see Montreal move him to a contender for a decent return. Guhle's another guy where I don't think your grade reflects his trajectory -- for the upcoming season he should be B to B+.
Thanks so much for the deep dive.
The grades aren’t projections. They’re purely based on a players last 3 seasons with a heavier weight on last year. Adding projections would leave too much room for personal bias to creep in. I wanted to make this as objective as possible.
As for Armia. His numbers back up my elite defensive ability claim, especially on the PK. He ranked among all forwards
7th in xGA/60 shorthanded
3rd in SHD goals above replacement
5th in total defensive goals above replacement
The issue is MTL’s PK especially isn’t very strong as a unit so they’d still give up quality chances with him on the ice, the benefit I guess of me using InStat to watch individual players is I can go back and rewatch plays a bunch of times and focus on one player’s movement, positioning etc. which you can’t do while watching a game live as easily.
@@NBIHockey I'm a numbers guy too, so I can appreciate the advanced stats. I'm sure Armia is an asset on the PK unit, not disputing that. Just not impressed with his overall game any more (and I used to like him quite a bit earlier in his career). He might be one of those guys with good numbers who doesn't pass the eye test.
Dude the d is downgraded in your model? You gotta change the model or make an acception
It’s downgraded because they lost a good 3rd pair D and are replacing him with unproven players.
Projections don’t affect the ratings. I’m only judging players purely off what they’ve done so far in the NHL. And based off that, yes MTL’s blueline got worse.
@NBIHockey so based on what your saying , with your model , last season Chicago drafting Bedard and making him the 1c on the team would be a downgrade from the previous seasons 1c .
I’m saying losing an NHL level D and not bringing in any new players into your system is a downgrade inherently.
The reality is until a player actually plays in the NHL any rating of how they will play is just a guess. Too much personal bias would come into projecting player ratings. I literally say in the video “I believe they could take a massive leap defensively” but the ratings are purely based off what players have already done, none of them are projections.
There’s a chance Hutson for example comes in and just can’t find success in the NHL because of his size or the lack of open ice given to him, I don’t think that’ll be the case but there’s no way of knowing until he actually plays.
@@NBIHockey Well he actually played... Games against a team fighting for a playoff spot.
Whos here after Patrick?
I’ve always wanted to get a comment like this 🥺
Also I really like the deal for MTL FTR
Love the breakdown, man. One thing I will say is you're missing D+!
I just skipped it. The 12 catagories worked better for me
Why would you be down on Slaf, who was 18, by the way. He gonna be a monster. There is certain characteristics that make real hockey players. Slaff has them all. Certified #1 pick.
He was 19 last year but he has yet to put together a dominant and consistent stretch of games over the course of a full season. Even in Jr the biggest knock against him was just how inconsistent he’d be. He showed flashes of being a real top 6 player this year but I really need to see him truly find that consistency. You can have all the tools in the world but if you can’t properly use them consistently then it doesn’t really matter.
@@NBIHockey He was very much consistently performing at the level of a top 6 forward over the second half of the season. He had 35 points in his last 40 games. Saying he's been "showing flashes of being a real top 6 player" this year might be the biggest understatement of the century. Reminder that Slaf had to play with guys like Josh Anderson for like half the season which significantly dragged down all his stats including his analytics and prevented him from producing at a top 6 level over the entire season
Your the only one besides myself that really liked Kovacevic and imo they did not HAVE to move him.I feel they are big time over rating Guhle and Reinbacher and although I like Mailloux he is not good enough defensively.
Another very big problem is I do not feel management or coach are willing to give a fair shake to prospects imo this team is mostly set waiting for maybe ONE more forward.A team moves as it;s top two lines move and like I said other than the Russian the top 2 lines are done.
I said two years ago that if Nick/Cole and Slaf are our first line we have NO CHANCE winning a cup.
The best defensive responsible forward is RHP nothing else is clsoe.I can't sit ehre and write a book on it but RHP keeps his head up looks over hsw shoulder and unlike the others stays within a stick reach of the point men.
The habs worst problem is how poorly we cover or DON'T cover the points it is like in our end we are playing 3 versus 5.
I think KH was avoiding losing Justin Barron for nothing. The d-corps is already quite crowded, Kovacevic was good for us but Barron's ceiling is much higher, gotta let him play.
Bit harsh on Newhook. He was solid at centre after his injury but especially his last 20 games or so, closing out the year. A 52pts pace playing with wings like Armia, Roy and Gallagher and no decent dman behind him shows he could deliver 60pts and be a dependable 2C despite not being able to carry or be the focal point of a 2nd line.
If you have Suzuki, Slaf and Demidov at a PPG or higher, CC at 70, NH at 60 and say Roy at 50, that's a potent top 6 capable of contending.
I can’t really grade a player higher for having a good 20 games when the rest of his numbers point to him being the 3rd liner he’s currently at. Plus there are a lot of things during that time to point to him just going on a bit of a PDO run. It’s definitely way too early to view him as a true 2C
@@NBIHockey "I think that they overpaid for Alex newhook I don't see him becoming like a full-time top six forward especially if this team's going to want to compete right like he's somebody who should be on your third line as like the second best player in your third line as a like a cup team"
That's the harsh part to me, not particularly the grade.
I don’t think he’s shown me anything to point to him being a strong 2C at this point in his career. Him becoming like a Gourde - level player isn’t really an insult I don’t think?
@@NBIHockey You could most certainly compete or win with Gourde on your top 6 though.
@@RandomPlaceHolderName seemed to work well for Seattle
I better hear no Dvorak slander here brother
You're wrong about Dach. You're gonna have to eat your words.
Dach has only played in 57% of possible games so far in his career because of injuries. I think I’m pretty justified in thinking he’s not a stable option as a 2C based on that fact alone.
This is the make or break year for dach , he has to stay healthy and show he can be reliable for montreal , if not they will be forced to replace him
@@NBIHockey Totally justified, this comment probably stems from the fact that Dach looked like our best player last preseason... he needs to play more
How old are you to writting this kind of comment? The guy just take time to show his analyst. You are not agree with him? You probably don’t saw any of his orher video « Deep dive »? So why?!?
@labvince88 How old am I? Lol, I'm 55. I watched the Habs win the cup in 76, 77, 78, 79, 86, and 93. I've played the game since I was 5 and still do. I've seen every kind of player under the sun. Kirby Dach is a gamer. He's had bad luck. He's still able to perform at the level expected when drafted. You just pretend to know. After this season, you will eat your words. Cheers
you clearly did not watch the canadiens this season. Awful takes.
I watched basically every Habs game this year. But I appreciate the comment and view
@@NBIHockey Unless you're a super dedicated Habs fan, there's no way in hell that's true lmao. I bet you "basically watched all the games" of all the teams you analyzed right even though that's literally physically impossible right?
I lost 20 dollar on the street....