I started investing when I was 37, mostly through sweat equity. I just turned 44 and this last month was the first time that my passive income broke $100k for the month. This is solid advice! DO IT! You don’t have to get rich quick, you just have to get RICH no matter what.
This is excellent! Information, staying informed is a big factor in making it difficult for a novice to manage all of this. How do you approach this? Are you an experienced investor?
My stocks and 401k have actually been losing all of the gains they've made since 2019, so I've been considering hiring a portfolio adviser. Mind if I looked up this coach you employ?
Thank you for your analysis. It is indeed timely, as I have recently begun establishing a long-term position in chemical companies such as BASF, Bayer, Covestro, Lanxess, and Dow Inc. I believe that the chemical sector has been overlooked in recent years, despite its resilience and the essential nature of its products in various aspects of our lives. This neglect presents an opportunity for long-term investors like myself to capitalize on the sector's potential. Also I agree that assessing a company's investment versus dividend payments can provide valuable insights into its growth potential. A company's willingness to invest in its business demonstrates confidence in future growth opportunities. On the other hand, excessive dividend payouts without sufficient investments may indicate a cash-out strategy, potentially leading to stagnation or decline in the business. I always look for a balanced situation between investments and dividend payouts.
Some insights from someone following BASF for a longer time. In my opinion there is the possibility that they will cut the dividen. Then the Stock will be at around 32€ i guess. I think the chanches for cut are at roughly 40%. What i dont like about the last year was that they did not cut the dividend even though they were making losses. In the long run you cant do that. The last time they were able to refinance at 4,5 %. If the rates are increased more this has to be taken into account. One big red flag which should be mentioned is that they had to close the TDI production facility (finished in 2016) in Ludwigshafen which was 30% of the whole european market capacity. They were able to give the fault to the high gas prices but in reality they were not able to run it in a way to earn money with it. Their were structural problems. The second thing is that they have to spent a lot of capex in china. And the development in china is not clearly visible. I hope that they dont do the same misstake as with the TDI production facility. Would be nice to hear what sven thinks about the tdi desaster Long story short if you get the stock under 40€ it might be a buy.
Great video, a number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 60, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
@@hermanramos7092 Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
Great video! I really do have a question. For someone with less than $40K to invest, how would you recommend we enter the stock market? I am looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What’s your take on this approach?
Because they are used to bull markets, most people find it difficult to handle a decline, but if you know where to search and how to get around, you can make a sizable profit. It depends on how you plan to enter and leave.
Given that we are not accustomed to such uncertain markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread anxiety and excitement comprehensible. There are opportunities if you know where to go, as you noted that it wasn't difficult for me to earn more than $780k in the previous 10 months. Since I was aware that I would need a reliable and strong plan to get through these tough times, I engaged a portfolio advisor.
@@ReidCoffman1 It was run by Maria Teresa Tyler, who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
@@AshtonGrace I looked up Maria Teresa Tyler's profile online since I was curious. I saw her page, her credentials, and how tight she came across. At first, I thought this was overblown nonsense.
My thoughts as well. I used to hold this and Covestro but sold them both after they announced big new investments in China. German businesses are making the same mistake they made with Russia - underestimating political risk.
Hi Sven, BASF biggest plant is in Ludwigshafen Germany. The entire business plan is built on cheap pipeline gas from the east. Energy is super expensive in Germany hence they have to move the entire infrastructure to other countries. If China is here the best choice i do not know. I know only that there is more than one chemical centric company outside in the world which does not have this location disadvantage. Same applies for Clariant in Switzerland.
It is not that expensive anymore. It is definitely one of the resaons the stock deflated so much. Now we have to make our own calculations and see maybe the market is too negatively on the stock exactly because of that. If they are too negative when there is no reason to be nagative, then you can make money.
Hi Sven, thank you for the video. My understanding is that BASF made a loss last year due to their subsidiary having to exit Russia after the sanctions. Without the 'write-down' for this the EPS would be around 6.4. I didn't catch if you talked about this point, is this relevant to the valuation analysis?
I am German and can hardly imagine a world without BASF. I have bought BASF plenty times, makes ~7% of my portfolio. The Dividend is really pretty high and that on a constant level. I am really considerung to buy more BASF because it should be such a solid share, just that the supply with cheap russian gas is a big issue for the European sites. I think, BASF, Bayer, Wacker.. should be in the Portfolio in general.
Very good! Buffet buys a Ressources company with a chemical department, while BASF is THE leading chemical company since 100 years with a ressources department aka Wintershall. So it is a good cyclical bet with a lot of tailwinds from future trends: with batteries for e-vehicles, China/EM and decarbonization and so on. But important to remember - risk is much lower under 40 Euro/ Share + long term ROE is 10%. After buying under 40€ and holding for 10 years you could get a threebagger + dividend in a best case scenario. There is also an "invisible" debt burden with the private pensions of baby boomers/ former BASF employees.
Buffet also bought BASF last year via National Indemnity together with Allianz and MunichRE. These are the 3 German stocks he talked about in last years shareholder meeting (without disclosing them).
@@robertschafer6276He just gets it. :) The risk of permanent loss is very low. But Sven ist also right, the potential gains could be really low. So if one has already a good portfolio and want to diversify for whatever reason, BASF is a good defensive play, as well as Philips or Pfizer. But the returns won't be stellar. Good but not stellar.
The BASF dividend is great, but the tax burden is pretty painful (26.375%). As a long-term value investment, they look good. They are positioning themselves for demographic growth in high profit areas, and moving away from high regulation / expense areas like Germany.
BASF will invest €10 billion in China over 10 years. That's just €1,0 billion out of €4,0 yearly free cash flow or 25%. That's not too risky. Yes, not stellar but well diversified and a leading business. At one point the recent negative industry cycle might end and the stock could double. It seems like an okay investment opportunity, not too risky because the world needs BASF chemicals and will continue to do so.
Great Analysis. Thx. QUESTION: Could you compare INEOS vs BASF/chemical market, what are Ineos doing so right? that they are growing with stronger profits counter to the chemical commodity business.?
I have a question on the agricultural solutions segment of this business. Russia and Belarus were the largest exporters of fertiliser in Europe. Does the war and consequent sanctions on basically all (Bela)Russian exports make for a gap in the market which this company could fill with its fertiliser?
You should check ALTO ingredients, i think it's an interesting case to analyze...in my opinion undervalued with good margins, stock was recently out of the russel 2000 , a lot of selloff made by mr market, now is getting a bit pricy by the day but still undervalued in my view.
there is a 500 million there that is capital cost that you subtract from EBITDA. but capital cost represents the return on the project - I assume some kind of mix of debt and capital and you shouldn't subtract it.
depends how you look at it, if you look at it as an investor, also calculating opportunity cost, then you get the result! If you look at it as an investment banker, then of course, you only care about your fee, not about shareholders making money:-)))
Greets from Germany. ✌️ BASF would be a great investment if it wasn‘t based in Germany haha. BASF production is extremely dependent on gas prices and thats bad story in Germany. the government miss out one opportunity after the other to safe the supply over long term. Plus off course the green-left focused politics that fight against our industry… no good environment. So BASF is a great company that is enforced to go abroad to US and China in the long term. Same story applies to our automotive industry, sadly. If you want to invest in Germany, go with boring stocks. Allianz, Munich Re, Telekom, DHL… but Germany is the country of undiscovered great small caps
it’s not a Sector he‘s interested in. I can tell you so much from my side: 50 Bio. in Debt, that’s the main problem, also no Organic growth. The Acquisitions are uncertain, how they play out. But overall it looks good.
Respecting your hard work but I am wondering, do you wven like 3 stocks? 2 ? Or even one? Is it really your opinion or you are trying to show how preservative you are so you suggest none ?
Thanks Sven, that was a good grilling about BASF. It will be wonderful to hear your opinion about UK market, inflation and intetest rate plus the stock Persimmon, the second largest builder in the UK. The stock going south, and I am expecting a dividend cut and stock buy back. Thanks 🙏🏽
My unresearched suspicion is that BASF has lots of assets in Germany, which are not economical to operate with the electricity and gas prices available at that location. Thus they are investing outside of Germany, but all those stranded assets will for the foreseeable future generate a subpar return on investment.
Exactly the loss of Russian gas hit this company badly. That is a continuous revenue steam bam gone surprised there was zero mention of that in the analysis. That's why you need to look at more than look at the balance sheets.
Sure,however in 2023 the prices have been way lower than 2022 so far. The 2022 result of BASF were impacted by 3+billion € of additional energy costs compared to 2021. I am looking forward for the second quarter results (TTF gas futures are now at 33 €/Mwh while 1 year ago it was already 100€ and then peaked above 300€)
@@Mrtickleberries The current gas price aside, Germany has to get most of its gas by LNG, which is higher cost than a location, where no LNG step is required. That is a long term disadvantage, especially in a commodity industry. Same for electricity prices: Germany has among the highest in the world.
@@matteobellagamba Yes, there is a Russian gas problem, but there an incredible shale boom in USA where natural gas is incredibly cheap. Germany finished construction on LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven. Might explain the reduction in the cost of gas. Furthermore, Iran/Venezuela are starting to open up and Russia is dumping fuel on the cheap for much needed cash to developing countries. It's kind of the worst case scenario if you are Saudi Arabia which explains the oil cuts. I think BASF's main concern is it's stake in China.
Interesting, though I don't invest in European stocks because it's just a friggin mess, we're worse every year... Plus unbelievable taxes (stealing) and also I don't know why but brokers charge you more fees than when buying or selling US stocks. So it should be a really really great opportunity... even if I save the currency exchange fee. Thanks.
I like this analisys... I see no real benefit, I still rather invest in EMN, DOW and LYB for this sector, yields do are lower, not by much tough. No deep analysis here, jus my feeling about the US vs the German economy.
Hey Sven, what are your thoughts on the education sector? Strong fundamental business that could benefit from an AI tailwind in the future. Long term hold and if AI flops you still have a good cash flow business.
🗽 OMG I own this stock (minor share in the portfolio).... one of my worst investments. 🤔 FYI: You call it not Basf, you spell out the letters, like in an abbreviation. B A S F .
BASF China is not just a FOMO play. They depended on cheap Russian gas and that supply may be gone from Germany forever. China though is getting cheap Russian gas and will likely continue to do so. BASF's move is about survival.
German dividends are a pain. You need to fill in a special form everytime to get a rebate on the 30% withholding tax. My broker asks 100EUR to do it and wont do it unless I have 50EUR net after. So I need 150 EUR dividends and will loose most to taxes. No German dividend stocks for me.
@@luiscoelho7122 I'd be paying 25% withholdingstax in Germany and on what's left another 30% withholdingstax at home. 52.5% left of my dividend. US, Canada 15% instead of 30% thanks to double tax treaty.
In Sweden the trick is to have such dividend shares in what is known as a Capital Insurance account. That way you own the investment, but the insurance company own the shares. It sounds weird, but it works and is very popular way of investing and saving for your pension. Anyway... The outcome is that the insurance company can pool all the shares from BASF for all the individual accounts into one, big holding and apply for the tax return in one big transaction with both the foreign and local tax authorities. It can take a while, 6-12 months, but eventually the money that was incorrectly withheld will be credited to each account holder in the form of extra shares.
Great suggestion Sven, thank you! Sounds like a good opportunity to do more research on it, while waiting for that dividend cut! Overall, I think everything with ties to China is being undervalued presently, wouldn't you say?
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Maria Reyes.
The wisest thought that is in everyone's minds today is to invest in different income flows that do not depend on the government, especially with the current economic crisis around the world. This is still a good time to invest in gold, silver and digital currencies (BTC, ETH.... stock,silver and gold)
@valtreyanny1259As a newbie you’ll need to invest in a company that is working towards sustainability, like that of expert Valerie Collier,and her abilities in handling investments are top notch
She’s an awesome person I’ve made $2,125,000 trading with her I’m blessed to meet her. I only started digital currencies because it suits my standard as a Christian.
Value trap. Investors don't like the China risk and the Russian gas headwind doesn't help. Why not invest in Dow inc instead, much better performance recently and low risk as Natgas is plentiful in USA. Capex risk as you mentioned smells bad... No guarantee this is not a technology transfer with China learning, mastering and copying the Verbund concept and then becoming a competitor?
BASF has alone as much energy usage as Switcerland. This was the main problem in 2022. The question is where the energy prices are going. Aaaand China..
I wouldn’t invest based on their divestments and investments. Management got out of oil and gas, leather chemicals, and basically all the “bad” chemicals and went heavy into battery’s, fish oil ect. They are cleaning more focused on optics then making cash
I dont know, dudes. I think crypto and all these ICOs are just a bubble. Well, crypto is good for transfers and so on, but I dont engage in trading and staking either. Its too risky. My friend recently lost $5000 there. I invest crypto in real business
interesting analysis. you didn't mention Ludwigshafen and issues with Russian gas input. i think it's one of the big risk with BASF. it will be a disaster if they have to throttle down Ludwigshafen.
What do you think about KRAFT HEINZ? Down 16.74% since Jan 6th, PE of 18 and dividend of 4.5%. However, there have been some fluctuating quarters with regards to net revenue.
You definitely have my sub. This content is next level. For me cannafarm ltd was the turning point. Please keep doing what you do and keep being you, love it.
Thank you for sharing your insights and recommendations. Its great to explore various investment options, especially well-known companies like Cannafarm Ltd that are gaining popularity. Adding different ventures to our portfolio can help reduce risks in
Cryptocurrency is volatile. Diversifying your portfolio is a sensible strategy. For example, I have deposits on Binance where I engage in trading, also staking on Kraken, investing in companies like Cannafarm Ltd, and I also participate in liquidity pools
BASF is investing wild sums because they have to - their german plants will not be making money for the foreseeable future until Germany fixes it's ridiculously stupid energy policy. On the good side, BASF is big and globally diversified enough to survive without their german roots... Might be an ugly decade ahead, but in the long run, it will be fine. The Company has survived two world wars and the accompanying complete annihilation of their production facilities, so I'm reasonably optimistic they'll survive this storm, too.
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
Hi Sven, good video as always! Do you have any thoughts on NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT? I know you did a video long time ago but now the price is much lover.
The stock market have been suffering for while now with all the indexes recorded losses in recent months gives us the figures My $300,000 portfolio is down approximately 20% Any recommendation to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated
The market is volatile at this time. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a financial Advisor that can provide you with entery and exit point on the share ETF YOU focus on.
@@SegunSpiffThat's true, I started investing before the pandemic and I pulled out about $600. 000 with no prior. Investing experience, Basically all I was doing was seeking for guidance from a financial Advisor. MRS AVA KIMBERLY YOU can passively involved with the aid of a professional
Hello am from Seattle,I've been trading with Mrs Ava Kimberly for 2 years and she has proven to be trusted and the best Broker I strongly recommend sher.
I invest with Mrs Ava Kimberly too, she charges a 20% commission on profit made after every trading session which is fair compared to the effort she put in to make huge profits
I honestly dont understand why youre discussing these dubious schemes. There are plenty of options like Cannafarm Ltd and similar ones that are fast and profitable.
I dont know, all of this sounds questionable, with too many potential pitfalls. I believe there are more reliable options out there. I recently found a company called Cannafarm Ltd, and Ive been consistently earning with them. I think its better to foc
I started investing when I was 37, mostly through sweat equity. I just turned 44 and this last month was the first time that my passive income broke $100k for the month. This is solid advice! DO IT! You don’t have to get rich quick, you just have to get RICH no matter what.
This is excellent! Information, staying informed is a big factor in making it difficult for a novice to manage all of this. How do you approach this? Are you an experienced investor?
My stocks and 401k have actually been losing all of the gains they've made since 2019, so I've been considering hiring a portfolio adviser. Mind if I looked up this coach you employ?
Thanks for the tip. I located her website and left a message in the hopes that she would respond quickly.
@@anthonyrussell5718 SCAM dont go there
Badische Anilin- und Sodafrabrik (BASF - you pronounce it "Be Ah Es Eff" like a german) :P Great Video!
Thank you for your analysis. It is indeed timely, as I have recently begun establishing a long-term position in chemical companies such as BASF, Bayer, Covestro, Lanxess, and Dow Inc. I believe that the chemical sector has been overlooked in recent years, despite its resilience and the essential nature of its products in various aspects of our lives. This neglect presents an opportunity for long-term investors like myself to capitalize on the sector's potential. Also I agree that assessing a company's investment versus dividend payments can provide valuable insights into its growth potential. A company's willingness to invest in its business demonstrates confidence in future growth opportunities. On the other hand, excessive dividend payouts without sufficient investments may indicate a cash-out strategy, potentially leading to stagnation or decline in the business. I always look for a balanced situation between investments and dividend payouts.
Some insights from someone following BASF for a longer time. In my opinion there is the possibility that they will cut the dividen. Then the Stock will be at around 32€ i guess. I think the chanches for cut are at roughly 40%. What i dont like about the last year was that they did not cut the dividend even though they were making losses. In the long run you cant do that.
The last time they were able to refinance at 4,5 %. If the rates are increased more this has to be taken into account.
One big red flag which should be mentioned is that they had to close the TDI production facility (finished in 2016) in Ludwigshafen which was 30% of the whole european market capacity. They were able to give the fault to the high gas prices but in reality they were not able to run it in a way to earn money with it. Their were structural problems. The second thing is that they have to spent a lot of capex in china. And the development in china is not clearly visible. I hope that they dont do the same misstake as with the TDI production facility. Would be nice to hear what sven thinks about the tdi desaster
Long story short if you get the stock under 40€ it might be a buy.
Great video, a number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 60, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
@@hermanramos7092 Could you possibly recommend a trustworthy advisor you've consulted with?
@@hermanramos7092 Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
Great video! I really do have a question. For someone with less than $40K to invest, how would you recommend we enter the stock market? I am looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What’s your take on this approach?
Because they are used to bull markets, most people find it difficult to handle a decline, but if you know where to search and how to get around, you can make a sizable profit. It depends on how you plan to enter and leave.
Given that we are not accustomed to such uncertain markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread anxiety and excitement comprehensible. There are opportunities if you know where to go, as you noted that it wasn't difficult for me to earn more than $780k in the previous 10 months. Since I was aware that I would need a reliable and strong plan to get through these tough times, I engaged a portfolio advisor.
@@AshtonGrace Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.
@@ReidCoffman1 It was run by Maria Teresa Tyler, who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
@@AshtonGrace I looked up Maria Teresa Tyler's profile online since I was curious. I saw her page, her credentials, and how tight she came across. At first, I thought this was overblown nonsense.
Thanks for the video! Div. cut is a real possibility, let's wait and see... Pronunciation of the company is in single letters, B A S F
Once you say “pension funds”, that means do not buy this.
:-))
actually there is a national interest in keeping those companies healthy so they should be safer than others
@@merridius2006Yes, but only if you invest free money, like Buffet did in Japan.
Double whammy of significant China capex + unpredictable access to feedstock in Europe could be why BASF looks optically cheap? Thanks Sven as always!
My thoughts as well. I used to hold this and Covestro but sold them both after they announced big new investments in China. German businesses are making the same mistake they made with Russia - underestimating political risk.
Hi Sven, BASF biggest plant is in Ludwigshafen Germany. The entire business plan is built on cheap pipeline gas from the east. Energy is super expensive in Germany hence they have to move the entire infrastructure to other countries. If China is here the best choice i do not know. I know only that there is more than one chemical centric company outside in the world which does not have this location disadvantage. Same applies for Clariant in Switzerland.
It is not that expensive anymore. It is definitely one of the resaons the stock deflated so much. Now we have to make our own calculations and see maybe the market is too negatively on the stock exactly because of that. If they are too negative when there is no reason to be nagative, then you can make money.
Hi Sven, thank you for the video. My understanding is that BASF made a loss last year due to their subsidiary having to exit Russia after the sanctions. Without the 'write-down' for this the EPS would be around 6.4. I didn't catch if you talked about this point, is this relevant to the valuation analysis?
I think part of the disinvestments failure is that those 30bln where invested in sector dependent on cheap natural gas
I am German and can hardly imagine a world without BASF.
I have bought BASF plenty times, makes ~7% of my portfolio.
The Dividend is really pretty high and that on a constant level.
I am really considerung to buy more BASF because it should be such a solid share, just that the supply with cheap russian gas is a big issue for the European sites.
I think, BASF, Bayer, Wacker.. should be in the Portfolio in general.
Danke
Very good! Buffet buys a Ressources company with a chemical department, while BASF is THE leading chemical company since 100 years with a ressources department aka Wintershall. So it is a good cyclical bet with a lot of tailwinds from future trends: with batteries for e-vehicles, China/EM and decarbonization and so on. But important to remember - risk is much lower under 40 Euro/ Share + long term ROE is 10%. After buying under 40€ and holding for 10 years you could get a threebagger + dividend in a best case scenario. There is also an "invisible" debt burden with the private pensions of baby boomers/ former BASF employees.
Buffet also bought BASF last year via National Indemnity together with Allianz and MunichRE. These are the 3 German stocks he talked about in last years shareholder meeting (without disclosing them).
@@robertschafer6276He just gets it. :) The risk of permanent loss is very low. But Sven ist also right, the potential gains could be really low. So if one has already a good portfolio and want to diversify for whatever reason, BASF is a good defensive play, as well as Philips or Pfizer. But the returns won't be stellar. Good but not stellar.
Take a loot at GSK, Sven! Thank you!
The BASF dividend is great, but the tax burden is pretty painful (26.375%). As a long-term value investment, they look good. They are positioning themselves for demographic growth in high profit areas, and moving away from high regulation / expense areas like Germany.
im german and i feel offended
@@nachhilfehvm 😅 No offense intended!
As a German, I feel honored@@johnwelsh1012
It's down because it depends on Russian gas
And china
BASF will invest €10 billion in China over 10 years. That's just €1,0 billion out of €4,0 yearly free cash flow or 25%. That's not too risky. Yes, not stellar but well diversified and a leading business. At one point the recent negative industry cycle might end and the stock could double. It seems like an okay investment opportunity, not too risky because the world needs BASF chemicals and will continue to do so.
Great Analysis. Thx.
QUESTION: Could you compare INEOS vs BASF/chemical market, what are Ineos doing so right? that they are growing with stronger profits counter to the chemical commodity business.?
Thanks Sven. If you're in the chemical context, it would be interesting to see a quick check of Berry
Mining investing course Sven ?
I have a question on the agricultural solutions segment of this business.
Russia and Belarus were the largest exporters of fertiliser in Europe. Does the war and consequent sanctions on basically all (Bela)Russian exports make for a gap in the market which this company could fill with its fertiliser?
You should check ALTO ingredients, i think it's an interesting case to analyze...in my opinion undervalued with good margins, stock was recently out of the russel 2000 , a lot of selloff made by mr market, now is getting a bit pricy by the day but still undervalued in my view.
there is a 500 million there that is capital cost that you subtract from EBITDA. but capital cost represents the return on the project - I assume some kind of mix of debt and capital and you shouldn't subtract it.
depends how you look at it, if you look at it as an investor, also calculating opportunity cost, then you get the result! If you look at it as an investment banker, then of course, you only care about your fee, not about shareholders making money:-)))
What about Bayer?
As always, thanks for the amazing content Sven ❤️
I enjoy your channel thoroughly, any chance you would be able to do a breakdown on VF corporation?
Yes, I agree I bought the stock mainly for the north face brand. It seems popular and I wear it myself from time to time.
Thanks Sven. I was wondering why the sponsored ADR BASF has underperformed the German BASF? I guess it is due to the strong dollar?
Hello! can you take a look also to bayer pls?? i have 24 years and love your content thanks.
Thank you Sven 😊
Thanks for vid. What do you think about Hudbay?
Sound is much better now 👍
Thank you Sven, what do you think about Pfizer? Grazie 😊
Well BASF sold part of its US Business to Sika so it’s got some uncertainty ahead of them .
Thanks, cyclical stocks are great, have a historical history, one day it's awful ( time to buy) then it's so great ( time to sell) wash and repeat
Greets from Germany. ✌️
BASF would be a great investment if it wasn‘t based in Germany haha.
BASF production is extremely dependent on gas prices and thats bad story in Germany. the government miss out one opportunity after the other to safe the supply over long term. Plus off course the green-left focused politics that fight against our industry… no good environment. So BASF is a great company that is enforced to go abroad to US and China in the long term.
Same story applies to our automotive industry, sadly.
If you want to invest in Germany, go with boring stocks. Allianz, Munich Re, Telekom, DHL…
but Germany is the country of undiscovered great small caps
This.
Thanks for the insight.
Thank You for the Video Sven. Can you have a look at CVS and tell us what are the risks involved in that investment.
it’s not a Sector he‘s interested in.
I can tell you so much from my side:
50 Bio. in Debt, that’s the main problem, also no Organic growth.
The Acquisitions are uncertain, how they play out.
But overall it looks good.
Respecting your hard work but I am wondering, do you wven like 3 stocks? 2 ? Or even one?
Is it really your opinion or you are trying to show how preservative you are so you suggest none ?
Thanks Sven, that was a good grilling about BASF. It will be wonderful to hear your opinion about UK market, inflation and intetest rate plus the stock Persimmon, the second largest builder in the UK. The stock going south, and I am expecting a dividend cut and stock buy back. Thanks 🙏🏽
My unresearched suspicion is that BASF has lots of assets in Germany, which are not economical to operate with the electricity and gas prices available at that location. Thus they are investing outside of Germany, but all those stranded assets will for the foreseeable future generate a subpar return on investment.
Exactly the loss of Russian gas hit this company badly. That is a continuous revenue steam bam gone surprised there was zero mention of that in the analysis. That's why you need to look at more than look at the balance sheets.
Sure,however in 2023 the prices have been way lower than 2022 so far. The 2022 result of BASF were impacted by 3+billion € of additional energy costs compared to 2021. I am looking forward for the second quarter results (TTF gas futures are now at 33 €/Mwh while 1 year ago it was already 100€ and then peaked above 300€)
@@Mrtickleberries The current gas price aside, Germany has to get most of its gas by LNG, which is higher cost than a location, where no LNG step is required. That is a long term disadvantage, especially in a commodity industry. Same for electricity prices: Germany has among the highest in the world.
@@matteobellagamba Yes, there is a Russian gas problem, but there an incredible shale boom in USA where natural gas is incredibly cheap. Germany finished construction on LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven. Might explain the reduction in the cost of gas. Furthermore, Iran/Venezuela are starting to open up and Russia is dumping fuel on the cheap for much needed cash to developing countries. It's kind of the worst case scenario if you are Saudi Arabia which explains the oil cuts. I think BASF's main concern is it's stake in China.
Interesting, though I don't invest in European stocks because it's just a friggin mess, we're worse every year... Plus unbelievable taxes (stealing) and also I don't know why but brokers charge you more fees than when buying or selling US stocks. So it should be a really really great opportunity... even if I save the currency exchange fee. Thanks.
Bayer 💪 💪 💁🏻♀️🧙🏼♂️
Thank you for the video Sven!
Thanks Sven. Can u do a video on Covestro, which is the main competitor of BASF.
I like this analisys... I see no real benefit, I still rather invest in EMN, DOW and LYB for this sector, yields do are lower, not by much tough. No deep analysis here, jus my feeling about the US vs the German economy.
Hey Sven, what are your thoughts on the education sector? Strong fundamental business that could benefit from an AI tailwind in the future. Long term hold and if AI flops you still have a good cash flow business.
Well, as you see, i am all in on education!
Would like to see an update about Pampa Energía. Thank you
🗽 OMG I own this stock (minor share in the portfolio).... one of my worst investments. 🤔
FYI: You call it not Basf, you spell out the letters, like in an abbreviation. B A S F
.
If they drop the div then its going to dip lower
Whole chemical sector is cheap, also PTTGC.
Looks like a bell curve company life cycle just with new lows then highs upticks but down trend overall
yes, especially with a recession, it won't look much better!
*Fantastic* overview, Sven, grazie! 👌🏼
So...summary?
Stay away until dividend cut?
BASF China is not just a FOMO play. They depended on cheap Russian gas and that supply may be gone from Germany forever. China though is getting cheap Russian gas and will likely continue to do so. BASF's move is about survival.
thanks for sharing, good point!
German dividends are a pain. You need to fill in a special form everytime to get a rebate on the 30% withholding tax. My broker asks 100EUR to do it and wont do it unless I have 50EUR net after. So I need 150 EUR dividends and will loose most to taxes. No German dividend stocks for me.
yeah...its extremely trashy !
@@luiscoelho7122 I'd be paying 25% withholdingstax in Germany and on what's left another 30% withholdingstax at home. 52.5% left of my dividend. US, Canada 15% instead of 30% thanks to double tax treaty.
In Sweden the trick is to have such dividend shares in what is known as a Capital Insurance account. That way you own the investment, but the insurance company own the shares. It sounds weird, but it works and is very popular way of investing and saving for your pension. Anyway... The outcome is that the insurance company can pool all the shares from BASF for all the individual accounts into one, big holding and apply for the tax return in one big transaction with both the foreign and local tax authorities. It can take a while, 6-12 months, but eventually the money that was incorrectly withheld will be credited to each account holder in the form of extra shares.
I am struggling with double taxation and the make it almost impossible to give me refund...
Thank U for covering 🙏
stoneco pls
Great suggestion Sven, thank you! Sounds like a good opportunity to do more research on it, while waiting for that dividend cut! Overall, I think everything with ties to China is being undervalued presently, wouldn't you say?
check fxpo stock
this one is also in multi year low cyclical stock
Excellent breakdown of BASF. Thanks Sven
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Value trap. Investors don't like the China risk and the Russian gas headwind doesn't help. Why not invest in Dow inc instead, much better performance recently and low risk as Natgas is plentiful in USA. Capex risk as you mentioned smells bad... No guarantee this is not a technology transfer with China learning, mastering and copying the Verbund concept and then becoming a competitor?
Insider bought many shares
Can both statements be true?
- Dividend yeld is 7.6% because they are going to cut it
- A dividend cut is never priced in the stock
yes, because when the cut actually happens, it goes lower, now what is priced in is: maybe cut
BASF has alone as much energy usage as Switcerland. This was the main problem in 2022. The question is where the energy prices are going. Aaaand China..
BASF is leaving Germany, one of the worst countries regarding energy prices.
.
@@jonnes__4657...and going to China where your business can be dependent on however the government decides to feel that day.
China has the lowest electricity cost relative to Europe and USA.
Very good video
i put alert at 41
I wouldn’t invest based on their divestments and investments. Management got out of oil and gas, leather chemicals, and basically all the “bad” chemicals and went heavy into battery’s, fish oil ect. They are cleaning more focused on optics then making cash
I dont know, dudes. I think crypto and all these ICOs are just a bubble. Well, crypto is good for transfers and so on, but I dont engage in trading and staking either. Its too risky. My friend recently lost $5000 there. I invest crypto in real business
low growth rate. But certainly not expensive? Very cyclical
Last 5 yr they lost 47%.
Thank you for your analysis, this Video was great!
profit warning published yesterday, be careful, it's a value trap rn
thanks for sharing, after that usually comes the dividend cut
would it make sense to follow it, so we can be ready when the dividend cut happens?
I assume yes!
Thanks for another great analysis Sven. What do you think about Smurfit Kappa?
Try to call BASF by their full name: Badische Anilin- und Sodafabrik 😜
irrelevant
Fix your audio please!
interesting analysis. you didn't mention Ludwigshafen and issues with Russian gas input. i think it's one of the big risk with BASF. it will be a disaster if they have to throttle down Ludwigshafen.
What do you think about KRAFT HEINZ? Down 16.74% since Jan 6th, PE of 18 and dividend of 4.5%. However, there have been some fluctuating quarters with regards to net revenue.
Anyone knows if management is shareholder friendly and competent?
interesting:)
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Thank you for sharing your insights and recommendations. Its great to explore various investment options, especially well-known companies like Cannafarm Ltd that are gaining popularity. Adding different ventures to our portfolio can help reduce risks in
Cryptocurrency is volatile. Diversifying your portfolio is a sensible strategy. For example, I have deposits on Binance where I engage in trading, also staking on Kraken, investing in companies like Cannafarm Ltd, and I also participate in liquidity pools
BASF is investing wild sums because they have to - their german plants will not be making money for the foreseeable future until Germany fixes it's ridiculously stupid energy policy.
On the good side, BASF is big and globally diversified enough to survive without their german roots... Might be an ugly decade ahead, but in the long run, it will be fine. The Company has survived two world wars and the accompanying complete annihilation of their production facilities, so I'm reasonably optimistic they'll survive this storm, too.
😮
Cool video! Id like to add that there are other investment options in businesses like cannafarm ltd as well.
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
bad cashflow
Hi Sven, good video as always! Do you have any thoughts on NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT? I know you did a video long time ago but now the price is much lover.
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Thx for the info. Its very useful. Last time, I also came across cannafarm ltd, and financially, it has been very helpful for me. So thank you again!
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. RIght now Im keeping an eye on Cannafarm ltd
In Germany we say: BE AH ES F
danke, fur nachste vid
I dont expect a dividend cut
I honestly dont understand why youre discussing these dubious schemes. There are plenty of options like Cannafarm Ltd and similar ones that are fast and profitable.
Betting pensioner's money in China, all in!
I dont know, all of this sounds questionable, with too many potential pitfalls. I believe there are more reliable options out there. I recently found a company called Cannafarm Ltd, and Ive been consistently earning with them. I think its better to foc
10x fcf atm, get it cheaper if dividends cut round 8-9x fcf. Risk to reward ratio pretty decent for a 10-15x stock portfolio