Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
Find stocks with market-beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market for a long term.For a successful long-term strategy | recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financial advisor.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
If you can understand everything they talked about you should be on the panel! Definitely 2-3 listens. Luke often is too fast for me to grasp what he is saying
@@MrTigerStarX who’s been right in your opinion? Admittedly it’s been tough to predict exact timing and events. But she’s pretty good overall macro analysis
@@MrTigerStarX explain yourself ... eg. what claims / positions are you claiming she got wrong etc.? Lyn hedges everything she says quite carefully and reasonably, and she is very, very data driven. I don't really see anywhere she could be embarrassingly or unprofessionally wrong on anything (eg. like Peter Schiff has been lol). Please enlighten me. If you're expecting her to be a psychic future teller, then keep in mind that NO ONE can predict the future or is always right. Only a fool believes in never being wrong
Lyn: "It doesn't matter until it does!" By then, it's probably too late to not get hurt. A number of years ago, I thought it was important to not be in debt and to minimize my risk with stocks that were susceptible to downsides (high Price/Dividends and shaky revenue). Long-term, interest rates can't function at ZIRP.
I came across some statements from big investors expressing concerns that the stock market rally could be short-lived. My concern is my $600K stock portfolio is still recovering from a dip of almost 40%, how do I navigate these complex situations?
Diversification and a thorough understanding of the market dynamics are crucial, especially during periods of uncertainty. Keeping an eye on both the positive and cautionary signals can help investors
Engaging an investment adviser is the optimal approach for navigating the current stock market, especially for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach and have seen my initial $450K grow to over $800K since Q2.
The best way to navigate the current stock market, particularly for individuals who are getting close to retirement, is to work with an investment adviser. I've been working with a coach, and since Q2, my initial $450K has increased to over $800K.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 this year.
These two should really get together for a regular show/podcast ... two of the most credible, unbiased economic thinkers so it's great to see them go back and forth exploring ideas.
when discussing the economy of the 1980's we were told the economy was only good because of the "sugar high" created by "huge deficits." if that was true then by now we should be in a hyperglycemic coma.
Lyn understands and explains 1940s inflation vs 1970s inflationary periods so well. Many people think we'll have 1970s inflation but Lyn explains how that was caused by boomers entering workforce and buying/spending whereas 1940s was governments overburdened with debt from world war. These days our beloved government debt with wartime spending caused by boomers and politicians voting themselves free goodies and leaving rest of us to deal with the debt. Lest we forget bad fluu season of 2020 where governments blew the doors off of spending, supported by a weak, fearful society (and haven't returned to any sense of fiscal normalcy since). All that for a bad fluu 🤦🏻♂️
There isn't any one piece of data or analysis here that I haven't heard before; but the way that it's all been woven together has given me some new insights.
You know, we were all hoping for the Fed to make that rate cut for a better market outlook and it's beyond my control. I've seen returns of $800k, thanks to decisions to implement shorting & risk management with hedging and avoiding misreported leverage positions
This is insane bombarding us every couple of minutes with lengthy advertisement , it’s unfortunate to part of with this Channel since I believe you people are doing great job. Hopefully you will consider it
I am an ex CFO and a personal finance book author and I think I understand investing and macro to an extent but I can hardly ever understand what Lyn's messages are. She has to definitely work on her way of expressing herself. However, Luke is absolutely amazing!
@@James-il3tq More like it was under my head, and over yours, Jamie boy. I don't get value out of a cluelessDork who starts a question with "IF we go down this road of fiscal dominance" We went no brakes full throttle stuck down the mountain road heading for the financial cliff of insane corrupt fiscal abuse road the very minute senile ole joe took office. And Mr Lyn Alden's comment that this fiscal irresponsibility has been going on and countered by falling interest rates for 40 years is just a completely inaccurate description of what's going on now. We have NEVER, NEVER,. NEVER. deficit spent over 5% and closer to 10% of GDP when we weren't in a recession or a WW,... until senile ole joe took office. This insane senile ole joe admin and the demcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. (all of it deficit spending adding trillions to the debt each year),...years after the pandemic is over,...... than was spent the year before the pandemic started,... and we wewn't and we're not even in a recession. This is a paradigm shift in fiscal policy,.. NOT a continuance of the same ole thing for 40 years. When Trump left office, the economy was growing at 6% with under 2% inflation. If the economy is so great as the demcorats like to crow,... then why the need to deficit spend $1 trillion every 100 days???? There is absolutely no reason spending should remain 50% higher. It should have returned to near 2019 spending levels in 2021. It's this insane deficit spending,.... diametrically opposed to the Fed's efforts to quell the inflation caused by this deficit spending,... that has caused the inflation that has brought these higher interest rates. And Lyn thinks it's the interest on the debt being received by investors in treasuries and money markets that is stimulating the economy,.. NOT so much the deficit spending and free money being helicoptered in M1. And thesemorons,.. like many in the "end the Fed" and the goldbug cults,.... blame the Fed's monetary policy,... that can only react to fiscal abuse,.. NOT the incompetent presidents and congressmen,.. who actually are to blame due to their fiscal abuse. Wake up and smell the coffee,.. mate.
I’m 55 from southeastern Ohio but worked overseas all my life. I have savings of $1,000,000 and I'm ready for retirement, only concerned about the soaring inflation. Is this enough to retire comfortably, or do I need some sort of money management?
I would get money management just in case. You’re only 55. I think the average life execting in the US is 77.5 years, but many people live well into their 80s so that $1 million has to last you all of that and the unforeseen. $1m is a great start though. Good for you!
I’m quite lucky exposed to personal finance at early age, started job 19, purchased first home 28. Going forward, got laid-off at 36 just after covid-outbreak, and at once hired an advisor with grit to help stay afloat. As of today, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up $836k. Stay motivated friends
Thanks for a good interview! The timing is always a tough one. If I may suggest something. Instead of asking ‘when’, you could also ask for ‘what is a possible cue for this and that to happen? ‘. Have a bit of an elaboration on scenarios and/or trigger/cue/driver.
I disagree with Luke's assessment of the Plaza accord. The Japanese and the Germans had been artificially keeping their currency low giving them an unfair trade advantage. The U.S. had allowed this and opened our markets to them to support economic growth of these countries after WWII. However, by the time of the Plaza Accord we threatened to close our markets to them if they did not agree to allow their currencies to float at market rates. We would have the same influence over China by doing the same thing, threaten to close our markets to them. Also: Lynn leaves out the foundational cause of the inflationary period of the 1970s was Cost Push due to decline U.S. domestic oil output increased energy demand dependence upon unstable middle eastern supply of oil. The oil embargo of 73/74 and the fall of the shaw of Iran in 79.
I think you got the reasons for the Japanese and German trade surplus wrong. They made better quality products at lower prices that were due to manufacturing methods not currency advantages. The US cannot control China as it has a massive domestic market, It can sell to the rest of the world and it has built offshore factories to evade US tariffs. The US has no rounds left in its magazine. Goodbye USA.
I’ve missed Luke’s blue sport coat over the past 2 weeks, but a Beige Camel hair coat would be very nice. Love Lynn and Luke. Listen To them three times to get all.
I highly doubt Yellen is making any policy decisions..there is a public face of Government that us peasants see & there is a whole system that runs behind the facade..it’s hard to come to a different conclusion 🤷♂️
Awesome Discussion. Lots of fantastic nuggets from Luke & Lyn. I've been wrapping my head around the Monetary + Fiscal Dominance topics for a little while now... Thanks for the details on that one. Oh, and ... "Gold is Money; and, everything else is just Credit."
Since the debt crisis could unleash carnage on the stock market leading to economic downturns. We need to be prepared for potential market volatility. how can I secure my $200K stock portfolio against declining?
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I fired mine 10yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
Luke's great but I still lean on Lyn by a slim margin. She goes into the weeds a little bit deeper and has stronger understanding of 1940s inflation and Bitcoin.
The upshot seems to be: Gold/real rate divergence signals "No choice but return to QE while keeping real rates negative, except this time with MMT in tow on the fiscal side". Correct?
The 1970s inflation era in the US might also have been affected by a similar fiscal dominance during that time of time, considering the lingering effects of both Lyndon Johnson's Great Society program and the then highly expensive Vietnam war that had to be financed mainly by the US federal government alone, even though the government deficit- or debt-to-GDP ratio at that time had not been as high as that prevailing today.
The productivity boom we need is not in AI or IT that's been far above average in productivity for the last 50 years infect the only sectors that have increased in productivity in real terms are IT, finance, mining (fracking) and agriculture all service related sectors are way below inflating in productivity gains even construction for example is down 60% in productivity per worker hour same for truck drivers. Best I can tell this all started happening in the early 70s when we went off the gold standard and drastically increased regulation on doing everything besides IT.
What was the impact, if any, from the Revenue Act of 1978 with 401k savings plans vs the perhaps more conservative guaranteed corporate pension plans? As 401k savings plans became more common in the late 80's and 90's, is there any relation to today's results? I recall Mr. Greenspan sometimes unable to explain the exuberent market growth during the 1990's. Or, perhaps there is no relation.
Turkey and their economy's resistance to interest rate hikes is going to be an interesting study. Doesn't matter how one looks at it, deficit spending results in debasement of the currency and you eventually end up with an American Peso and a Canadian Yen.
This eventually happens in every democracy, when people think they can vote in people that will give them more than they pay in taxs..its very bad idea that never works in the long run.
This is why democracies eventually fail. US is no exception. Too bad we don't have laws limiting government spending (required balanced budgets). Easy to deficit spend endlessly and debase currency with no restraint of gold standard. Lest we forget US default in 1971 and inflation taking off since then (see gold price).
Gromen mentions when "Treas Mkt gets dysfunctional" he indicates off the run treas sales > on-the run Treas sales. This EXACT issue is being addressed by Yellen today: via treas buybacks!
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord!!!
Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners..
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up..
So according to the chart either gold should have went down in 2022 or the real 10 year yield should have went up. To me that chart shows the central bank losing control over inflation. The yield should have went up with inflation in 2022 but they labeled it as transitory instead.
Been telling people about rates being stimulatory since they peaked. I have been watching all these companies stack cash and earning income off it. Filling the holes in their decline in income from the consumer. How do you think they are doing all the buybacks. This also pumps the stocks, making taxes higher on them. All good for the government 🤡🌍.
Because other countries does not have the world reserve currency and thus cannot have as large deficits or their bond markets explode, e.g. UK Gilt debacle 22.
America is losing its reserve currency status. it does not happen over night but even Yellen (Lord Sidius) admits as much. Once we get below 40% reserve currency status America is going to see prices for goods spike to double what they are now. This does not take inflation into account. America is about 60% currently. Maybe a few more years? Not sure, but it is happening regardless of the time line.
Lyn opened my eyes to the fact that high interest rates in a high leverage society puts more spending money into the pockets of the middle class through the rates gotten on money market funds. So, raising short term rates can have the unintended effect of making inflation _worse._
Complete and utter nonsense. His (Lyn's) explanation of "fiscal dominance" as the result of the interest received in treasuires and money market, is just downright complete and utterDrivel. A. The interest payments are fraction of the fiscal deficits being fed into the economy that create the higher interest payments. B. The people who are receiving the higher interest rates are not spending that money,.. or ALL of it, anyway. C. Many are institutions who certainly don't spend it all,.. or much of it. And there are no more perpetual motion money generators anymore than there are perpetual motion machines. D. Many people who buy the treasuries are from overseas,.. and i. they don't spend it all,.. ii if they spend it,.. they're spending it in their own countries. E. Many are the local banks, many regional banks who are stuck with unrealized loan losses on previous treasury purchases. F. Those interest payments are pocket change compared to the insane deficit spending by this corruptincompetent senile ole joe admin and the demcorats,.. which,... since much of it is pork and giveaways, to citizens and illegal aliens and loan forgiveness in attempts to rig the election,.. that is not productive investment (if the the government is capable of doing productive profitable investment,.. is the real direct increase in M1 acting counter the Fed's efforts to quell the inflation caused by the insane deficit spending of this corruptincompetent senile ole joe admin that is the real reason the economy is being kept artificially inflated. Interest payments didn't create the inflation and higher rates,... DEFICIT spending do and did. The higher interest payments are the result of the unnecessary inflationary stimulation caused by deficit spending, not the cause it. And what do citizens get for this fiscal abuse,... higher deficits, higher debt, higher interest payments on the debt requiring a spiraling inflation and the destruction of the long term financial health of the country. Fiscal dominance ISN"T the result of the higher interest on the debt,.. it's the result of the unnecessary insane FISCAL deficits.... HELLOOOOOOO.
Yea the rate would have to be about double what it is now to trigger people hoarding dollars. Now they just say “thanks for the gift” and spend the interest.
Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
Find stocks with market-beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market for a long term.For a successful long-term strategy | recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financial advisor.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Would you mind recommending a specialist with a variety of investment options? This is extremely rare, and I eagerly await your response
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Luke and Lyn together, definitely a 2 or 3 time listen
If you can understand everything they talked about you should be on the panel! Definitely 2-3 listens. Luke often is too fast for me to grasp what he is saying
Lyn has been completely incorrect about the economy for 2 years nonstop.
@@MrTigerStarX who’s been right in your opinion? Admittedly it’s been tough to predict exact timing and events. But she’s pretty good overall macro analysis
Luke & Larry*
@@MrTigerStarX explain yourself ... eg. what claims / positions are you claiming she got wrong etc.? Lyn hedges everything she says quite carefully and reasonably, and she is very, very data driven. I don't really see anywhere she could be embarrassingly or unprofessionally wrong on anything (eg. like Peter Schiff has been lol). Please enlighten me. If you're expecting her to be a psychic future teller, then keep in mind that NO ONE can predict the future or is always right. Only a fool believes in never being wrong
I see Luke and Lyn in the same photograph talking about stuff. Hell yes I'm gonna watch.
Luke & Larry*
@@donragnar8430 Lynden you mean.
And wtf r u? 😂😂😂
Lyn: "It doesn't matter until it does!" By then, it's probably too late to not get hurt. A number of years ago, I thought it was important to not be in debt and to minimize my risk with stocks that were susceptible to downsides (high Price/Dividends and shaky revenue). Long-term, interest rates can't function at ZIRP.
These two together is like a 100x info session compared to most.
The most important interview so far this year
When part 2?
I came across some statements from big investors expressing concerns that the stock market rally could be short-lived. My concern is my $600K stock portfolio is still recovering from a dip of almost 40%, how do I navigate these complex situations?
Diversification and a thorough understanding of the market dynamics are crucial, especially during periods of uncertainty. Keeping an eye on both the positive and cautionary signals can help investors
Engaging an investment adviser is the optimal approach for navigating the current stock market, especially for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach and have seen my initial $450K grow to over $800K since Q2.
The best way to navigate the current stock market, particularly for individuals who are getting close to retirement, is to work with an investment adviser. I've been working with a coach, and since Q2, my initial $450K has increased to over $800K.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 this year.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
These two should really get together for a regular show/podcast ... two of the most credible, unbiased economic thinkers so it's great to see them go back and forth exploring ideas.
when discussing the economy of the 1980's we were told the economy was only good because of the "sugar high" created by "huge deficits." if that was true then by now we should be in a hyperglycemic coma.
Lyn has got the best macro view of anyone out there
No he doesn't.
Lyn understands and explains 1940s inflation vs 1970s inflationary periods so well. Many people think we'll have 1970s inflation but Lyn explains how that was caused by boomers entering workforce and buying/spending whereas 1940s was governments overburdened with debt from world war. These days our beloved government debt with wartime spending caused by boomers and politicians voting themselves free goodies and leaving rest of us to deal with the debt. Lest we forget bad fluu season of 2020 where governments blew the doors off of spending, supported by a weak, fearful society (and haven't returned to any sense of fiscal normalcy since). All that for a bad fluu 🤦🏻♂️
Is it a trans?
@@jcgoogle1808She
@@MaxPaint-c8m Larry Alden
There isn't any one piece of data or analysis here that I haven't heard before; but the way that it's all been woven together has given me some new insights.
because inflation is a wealth transfer mechanism, for those in the know
You know, we were all hoping for the Fed to make that rate cut for a better market outlook and it's beyond my control. I've seen returns of $800k, thanks to decisions to implement shorting & risk management with hedging and avoiding misreported leverage positions
you lucked out, unlike me
the fed's policies mask economic struggles with unsustainable spending and ignoring everyday Americans challenges
research not luck, led me to Emily ava milligan, a top fund manager. 340 grand to this. certainly not
great to see real life results. Your insights deserve credit
Thank you for having my two favorite people on the same video!!! 😊
Two greats together. Wow. Thank you for this episode. Great 2 see blunt honesty especially by Luke about the situation. I completely agree.
These two are absolutely fire, individually…. Together they shine brighter than Ra ☀️
Insanely powerful Interview. 50% Luke and lynn repeating the Most important knowledge of the Last few month. And 50% new. Super good.
The collab I didn’t know existed, but I definitely am looking forward to! Like & Lyn.
This is insane bombarding us every couple of minutes with lengthy advertisement , it’s unfortunate to part of with this Channel since I believe you people are doing great job. Hopefully you will consider it
Lin and Luke is the dream team 👍
I am an ex CFO and a personal finance book author and I think I understand investing and macro to an extent but I can hardly ever understand what Lyn's messages are. She has to definitely work on her way of expressing herself. However, Luke is absolutely amazing!
Lyn is by far my go to expert on the economy and investing insights. Another great video! ❤
With One of the best Interviewers and defiantly Best people to Interview. Im going to have to watch this twice
You can't be serious.
@@jcgoogle1808If you didn't get value out of this interview then it's over your head. Back to Tik Tok mate.
@@James-il3tq
More like it was under my head, and over yours, Jamie boy.
I don't get value out of a cluelessDork who starts a question with "IF we go down this road of fiscal dominance"
We went no brakes full throttle stuck down the mountain road heading for the financial cliff of insane corrupt fiscal abuse road the very minute senile ole joe took office.
And Mr Lyn Alden's comment that this fiscal irresponsibility has been going on and countered by falling interest rates for 40 years is just a completely inaccurate description of what's going on now.
We have NEVER, NEVER,. NEVER. deficit spent over 5% and closer to 10% of GDP when we weren't in a recession or a WW,... until senile ole joe took office.
This insane senile ole joe admin and the demcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. (all of it deficit spending adding trillions to the debt each year),...years after the pandemic is over,...... than was spent the year before the pandemic started,... and we wewn't and we're not even in a recession.
This is a paradigm shift in fiscal policy,.. NOT a continuance of the same ole thing for 40 years.
When Trump left office, the economy was growing at 6% with under 2% inflation.
If the economy is so great as the demcorats like to crow,... then why the need to deficit spend $1 trillion every 100 days????
There is absolutely no reason spending should remain 50% higher.
It should have returned to near 2019 spending levels in 2021.
It's this insane deficit spending,.... diametrically opposed to the Fed's efforts to quell the inflation caused by this deficit spending,... that has caused the inflation that has brought these higher interest rates.
And Lyn thinks it's the interest on the debt being received by investors in treasuries and money markets that is stimulating the economy,.. NOT so much the deficit spending and free money being helicoptered in M1.
And thesemorons,.. like many in the "end the Fed" and the goldbug cults,.... blame the Fed's monetary policy,... that can only react to fiscal abuse,.. NOT the incompetent presidents and congressmen,.. who actually are to blame due to their fiscal abuse.
Wake up and smell the coffee,.. mate.
Still the question should ask about the odds of no landing scenario
Two gentlemen discussing economics. Very nice.
Loser
The best Macro interview series this year I reckon
Best interview ever.
Lynn explains the way a normal person can understand and it blows my mind. 😮
Wow! Fascinating discussions! I think this is the episode of the year for Macro Economics!
Quality conversation and insights as usual, thank you Lyn A and Luke G
In my opinion the 2 best macro analyst in the world.
I’m 55 from southeastern Ohio but worked overseas all my life. I have savings of $1,000,000 and I'm ready for retirement, only concerned about the soaring inflation. Is this enough to retire comfortably, or do I need some sort of money management?
I would get money management just in case. You’re only 55. I think the average life execting in the US is 77.5 years, but many people live well into their 80s so that $1 million has to last you all of that and the unforeseen. $1m is a great start though. Good for you!
I’m quite lucky exposed to personal finance at early age, started job 19, purchased first home 28. Going forward, got laid-off at 36 just after covid-outbreak, and at once hired an advisor with grit to help stay afloat. As of today, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up $836k. Stay motivated friends
this is huge! your advsor must be grade A, mind sharing more info pleas? in dire need of proper asset allocation
*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Thanks lyn. Thanks for your insight on crypto in 2020.
2 favorite guests!!
Thanks Guys!!
Love Lyn, she's got some great points
Thank you. When two such astute analysts sing from the same hymn sheet ,it is time to listen and plan accordingly.
Thanks for a good interview!
The timing is always a tough one. If I may suggest something. Instead of asking ‘when’, you could also ask for ‘what is a possible cue for this and that to happen? ‘. Have a bit of an elaboration on scenarios and/or trigger/cue/driver.
Luke insight is always fantastic
Lyn alden, is just a macro genius. Never fails to have some incredible insight.
I disagree with Luke's assessment of the Plaza accord. The Japanese and the Germans had been artificially keeping their currency low giving them an unfair trade advantage. The U.S. had allowed this and opened our markets to them to support economic growth of these countries after WWII. However, by the time of the Plaza Accord we threatened to close our markets to them if they did not agree to allow their currencies to float at market rates. We would have the same influence over China by doing the same thing, threaten to close our markets to them.
Also: Lynn leaves out the foundational cause of the inflationary period of the 1970s was Cost Push due to decline U.S. domestic oil output increased energy demand dependence upon unstable middle eastern supply of oil. The oil embargo of 73/74 and the fall of the shaw of Iran in 79.
I think you got the reasons for the Japanese and German trade surplus wrong. They made better quality products at lower prices that were due to manufacturing methods not currency advantages. The US cannot control China as it has a massive domestic market, It can sell to the rest of the world and it has built offshore factories to evade US tariffs. The US has no rounds left in its magazine. Goodbye USA.
Thank you for interviewing the ideal new Fed chairman/woman and Secretary of the Treasury. They can rock/paper sisscors for who takes which job
Amazing guests and timing!
I’ve missed Luke’s blue sport coat over the past 2 weeks, but a Beige Camel hair coat would be very nice. Love Lynn and Luke. Listen To them three times to get all.
I highly doubt Yellen is making any policy decisions..there is a public face of Government that us peasants see & there is a whole system that runs behind the facade..it’s hard to come to a different conclusion 🤷♂️
Don't forget former Fed Chairs, Congress, Trump and Biden. They have all played their role in making this mess.
@@bpb5541 yep you can blame the players but it’s the system that’s impossible to change..
@@oneeleven9832 What if it completely collapses? Then what? CBDC?
If you can only slow or speed up the train, and not stop it, then when does the train run out of track?
Lynn is a star, always worth listening to.
More please!! Amazing interview!! 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
omg my two favorite macro geeks
Awesome Discussion. Lots of fantastic nuggets from Luke & Lyn. I've been wrapping my head around the Monetary + Fiscal Dominance topics for a little while now... Thanks for the details on that one.
Oh, and ... "Gold is Money; and, everything else is just Credit."
The most important point I took from this podcast is Mike's Starsky jumper 😊
Great discussion. What a wild time to live in!
Since the debt crisis could unleash carnage on the stock market leading to economic downturns. We need to be prepared for potential market volatility. how can I secure my $200K stock portfolio against declining?
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I fired mine 10yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is who i work with and she is a hot topic even among financial elitist in Texas. Just browse, you’d find her, thank me later.
I'm pleased with your advisor's prompt and knowledgeable assistance. Her professionalism instills confidence. Looking forward to further discussions.
Couldn't ask for a better combo of speakers.
Super interesting and insightful conversation... really appreciate it!
Lyn is the only macro expert whom I cant listen at 1.5x - have to watch at normal speed to digest.
Great stuff, thanks again!
Anybody notice the Doomberg chicken taking shots at Luke Gromens peak cheap oil
smart dude
Yeh, but he’s smarter than Luke
Luke's great but I still lean on Lyn by a slim margin. She goes into the weeds a little bit deeper and has stronger understanding of 1940s inflation and Bitcoin.
Why does gender bother you so much? @@donragnar8430
The upshot seems to be: Gold/real rate divergence signals "No choice but return to QE while keeping real rates negative, except this time with MMT in tow on the fiscal side". Correct?
The 1970s inflation era in the US might also have been affected by a similar fiscal dominance during that time of time, considering the lingering effects of both Lyndon Johnson's Great Society program and the then highly expensive Vietnam war that had to be financed mainly by the US federal government alone, even though the government deficit- or debt-to-GDP ratio at that time had not been as high as that prevailing today.
The productivity boom we need is not in AI or IT that's been far above average in productivity for the last 50 years infect the only sectors that have increased in productivity in real terms are IT, finance, mining (fracking) and agriculture all service related sectors are way below inflating in productivity gains even construction for example is down 60% in productivity per worker hour same for truck drivers. Best I can tell this all started happening in the early 70s when we went off the gold standard and drastically increased regulation on doing everything besides IT.
What was the impact, if any, from the Revenue Act of 1978 with 401k savings plans vs the perhaps more conservative guaranteed corporate pension plans? As 401k savings plans became more common in the late 80's and 90's, is there any relation to today's results? I recall Mr. Greenspan sometimes unable to explain the exuberent market growth during the 1990's. Or, perhaps there is no relation.
ok must watch, my two favorite macro people..
Lyn Alden reminds me of the Vulcans on Star Trek (a good thing by the way: lots of logic!).
We hear this about every 5 years. Nothing ever gets done Good luck
Our models no longer work.
Turkey and their economy's resistance to interest rate hikes is going to be an interesting study.
Doesn't matter how one looks at it, deficit spending results in debasement of the currency and you eventually end up with an American Peso and a Canadian Yen.
The question is, what can the fed do to control the money supply from now going forward?
Very smart people - Luke & Lyn
Good morning!!
This eventually happens in every democracy, when people think they can vote in people that will give them more than they pay in taxs..its very bad idea that never works in the long run.
This is why democracies eventually fail. US is no exception. Too bad we don't have laws limiting government spending (required balanced budgets). Easy to deficit spend endlessly and debase currency with no restraint of gold standard. Lest we forget US default in 1971 and inflation taking off since then (see gold price).
think I understood 13 percent of what they're talking about
Gromen mentions when "Treas Mkt gets dysfunctional" he indicates off the run treas sales > on-the run Treas sales. This EXACT issue is being addressed by Yellen today: via treas buybacks!
How or where do i see the fed supplying liquidity to treasury market
Analiza wsteczna zawsze skuteczna. Szkoda, że kwartał temu nie zrobiliście tego wywiadu, to byśmy zawczasu wiedzieli, by kupować.
Ale wywiad ciekawy.
Two of the best
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord!!!
Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners..
Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to expert nor elie daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me...
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up..
Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned Norelie Daissy, thought I'm the only one
trading with..
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?"
The metaphorical train Lyn speaks of is headed where? What’s its final destination? I agree it is set and running, but to where? 42:00 to 43:30
Perfect, you just needed Jack to moderate instead
Exactly,.. this guy is anIdiot.
So according to the chart either gold should have went down in 2022 or the real 10 year yield should have went up. To me that chart shows the central bank losing control over inflation. The yield should have went up with inflation in 2022 but they labeled it as transitory instead.
Awesome pod!
Great interview!
This is information I use to make decisions in my business.
Been telling people about rates being stimulatory since they peaked. I have been watching all these companies stack cash and earning income off it. Filling the holes in their decline in income from the consumer. How do you think they are doing all the buybacks. This also pumps the stocks, making taxes higher on them. All good for the government 🤡🌍.
Market wizards audiobooks on Spotify? Thanks!
Explain why "fiscal dominance" matters in US but not in for example UK, france, italy? "US is very financialized" is NOT enough of an answer.
Because other countries does not have the world reserve currency and thus cannot have as large deficits or their bond markets explode, e.g. UK Gilt debacle 22.
Because most counties outside US have significant USD debt. Mostly in eurodollar system off balance sheets on the shadows.
America is losing its reserve currency status. it does not happen over night but even Yellen (Lord Sidius) admits as much. Once we get below 40% reserve currency status America is going to see prices for goods spike to double what they are now. This does not take inflation into account. America is about 60% currently. Maybe a few more years? Not sure, but it is happening regardless of the time line.
Lyn Alden: Man, oh man.
Is she a man
It is a women not a man. She was smoking a lot hence the voice is low
Man or woman, she is an excellent and intelligent presenter
@@markmarcas6523 why do you call them she? That’s sexist
oh, my fav two analysts…!🎉
Dear Luke,
The short answer is: "yes".
The long answer is: it depends undergarments...
Warm regards,
Must-see TV 📺 for serious investors
This was great
Lyn opened my eyes to the fact that high interest rates in a high leverage society puts more spending money into the pockets of the middle class through the rates gotten on money market funds. So, raising short term rates can have the unintended effect of making inflation _worse._
Complete and utter nonsense.
His (Lyn's) explanation of "fiscal dominance" as the result of the interest received in treasuires and money market, is just downright complete and utterDrivel.
A. The interest payments are fraction of the fiscal deficits being fed into the economy that create the higher interest payments.
B. The people who are receiving the higher interest rates are not spending that money,.. or ALL of it, anyway.
C. Many are institutions who certainly don't spend it all,.. or much of it.
And there are no more perpetual motion money generators anymore than there are perpetual motion machines.
D. Many people who buy the treasuries are from overseas,.. and i. they don't spend it all,.. ii if they spend it,.. they're spending it in their own countries.
E. Many are the local banks, many regional banks who are stuck with unrealized loan losses on previous treasury purchases.
F. Those interest payments are pocket change compared to the insane deficit spending by this corruptincompetent senile ole joe admin and the demcorats,.. which,... since much of it is pork and giveaways, to citizens and illegal aliens and loan forgiveness in attempts to rig the election,.. that is not productive investment (if the the government is capable of doing productive profitable investment,..
is the real direct increase in M1 acting counter the Fed's efforts to quell the inflation caused by the insane deficit spending of this corruptincompetent senile ole joe admin that is the real reason the economy is being kept artificially inflated.
Interest payments didn't create the inflation and higher rates,... DEFICIT spending do and did.
The higher interest payments are the result of the unnecessary inflationary stimulation caused by deficit spending, not the cause it.
And what do citizens get for this fiscal abuse,... higher deficits, higher debt, higher interest payments on the debt requiring a spiraling inflation and the destruction of the long term financial health of the country.
Fiscal dominance ISN"T the result of the higher interest on the debt,.. it's the result of the unnecessary insane FISCAL deficits.... HELLOOOOOOO.
Yea the rate would have to be about double what it is now to trigger people hoarding dollars. Now they just say “thanks for the gift” and spend the interest.
If you don’t understand all that was discussed and how to position no matter. I’ll sum it up: Nothing is gonna stop this train
That’s exactly what I’ve been thinking now for the last 6 months
growth.. debt ..inflation .....the three musketeers
Lyn is a genius.
So, desinflationary force with AI on one side, but less tax income/ higher social expenses on the other. Which one wins?
Demographics
What is EM?
Trump is already Promising a Huge Tax Cut to the Billionaires that would Require $3 Trillion Debt. 🤣🤣
30:33 The boy who cried Japanification? Fast forward from 80s to now, and debt is starting to matter.
What your telling me is the music is about to stop…
No, this model forecasts the music slowly down.
I love this guy! Lyn has amazing insight.
great video
The geniuses that run our economy should have paid attention the debt situation in 1988 and things would be much different now.