I took a bus ride to one of the postcodes in Southeast Queensland that Martin posted out. The words of Edwin the property insider were on my mind. I just observed from the bus that is local and journeyed through a lot of the streets. My greatest discovery was many of the properties are rundown. Rundown like needs painting, roofing, guttering, new doors, sheds, windows, blinds, landscaping... The properties that stood out the most are the ageing timber houses. I had a revelation, while the property prices were going up, who needs to worry about the upkeep of the property? Why bother doing something if you don't have to! Well, that's great in the short term, painfully expensive in Long. How can an ageing property in need of costly repairs, price go up two, three, four or more times ? Sure we have a property down turn! That's obvious, what's not obvious is the interior and exterior expenses needed to bring these properties up to date. My hypothesis, is that Australian's don't actually know what real house prices really are?
MrFourkinghell, Nambour as well as the small towns around it, Sunshine Coast. Actually even post codes not mentioned by Martin (One's not showing mortgage stress) had the same problems with timber houses. From my observation of the state so far this negligence of mainly timber houses is systemic.
Rock On The Lough, agreed! Nonetheless, my hypothesis is a lot of negligented timber houses will be worth even less in the future. Due to the cost of bring them up to date. Perhaps, this is something Martin has not added to the data? Therefore, the scenarios forecasted so far will not have timber houses potentially moving further down in percentage due to refurbishing costs.
I think Aussie is still in the worst shape but it may not matter in the end because neither is immune to what goes on elsewhere. www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/aussie-dollar-new-zealand-dollar-most-vulnerable-to-china-slowdown.html
if you cant pay you cant pay weather its 100000 or 1000 both countries citizens are sitting on debt bombs they wont be able to pay off but in America they had strategic default we dont the banks are going hound people to suicide
You guys are legends.. I lived in Sydney for about 20 years.. Always thought it was way over priced.. Ridiculous prices for sub standard properties.. And in some of the most horrible areas.. Don't get me wrong there are some lovely places too but in general paying a million dollars for a house out West with bogans everywhere.. Do me a favour.. Sorry to say this but roll on the crash.. Thanks Martin and Tony, cheers.
We are continual given false and mis leading information. We expect it, the BS from those who will do anything to make or create Money. Keep the system running, who cares about the people's lives, families or their future entrapped in slavery. Martin and Tony thanks for your honesty - Hard to take but will help so many!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good luck on your bet with The Kouk, Tony. I can't wait for the next interview on how to survive the coming recession. If I lose my job, I plan to dig up my mother's backyard and grow a veggie patch 🍓🍅🥒🌶😋👍
I remember Tony using some colourful phrases to describe Sydney property prices on Sky News a few years ago. Not many people ringing alarm bells back then. Keep up the good work, guys!
Unlike previous down turns, this one is not going to be a mere negative abstraction. What is coming is going to be downright tragic. Decades of mismanagement and socialism on a world wide scale are bearing down on a public which for the most part are clueless. DFS and their guests have done a wonderful job with their honest reportage on the local scene but the scale goes beyond Australia's isolated shores. Bretton Woods hangs by a thread and governments the world over are bust, as they only roll over debt and thus interest has compounded beyond the amount of money in existence. The problems world wide, are beyond the scope of our present political and academic systems. Millions of lives literally hang in the balance. If we are unable to come together and reform, coming generations will either confront a new dark age of brutality, poverty and war, or enlightenment.
Such valuable content presented with conviction. I was thinking through the first half of the presentation that outlining basic financial survival strategies should be part of the message (subject to having the credentials to do so) and lo and behold the offer came up from Tony at the conclusion... Please follow that up Martin. That is as important as being informed of the dire economic expectations your data reveals.
Many thanks, Tony and Martin. The value this has to society is great, particularly as it is a public record of "We did see it coming, the warning signs were loud and clear, yet those in power intentionally misled the public to the detriment of the nation."
I haven't seen anyone point this fact out: The NSW State Government says it has raised a heap of money and spent it on infrastructure and paid off government debt. But the money they raised from stamp duty is part of the money home buyers have borrowed. So in fact it is debt, just debt that has been transferred to poor unsuspecting home buyers.
Hello Martin ... I was waiting for a long time on RUclips refreshing the page to see what's up today. Hmmm I was disappointed but now a minute ago .... Your video came up... Good on You!
My wife and I had a raging argument about selling a couple of years ago. I wanted out. she wanted in. After thinking about her position carefully, (and being debt free and deed safely in my hidey-hole) I conceded that she was right. My reasoning was this. If the property market crashes as much as I suspect it will (50-75%), then selling and placing the proceeds in a soon-to-fail bank, which will either be bailed in or collapse from derivatives exposure, then I might as well hold the title to a family home. If we'd sold, we wouldn't own the house, and if/when property crashes, it'll bring down the banks, and we would own the cash either. Lose/lose situation. Here's hoping gold, silver and the cryptos take up the slack.
Are U taught in school that federal reserve bank of America is neither federal nor reserve but a money printing franchise by the banking families to keep the rest of us as debt slaves...
Speaking as a family lawyer, I can already see the effects of the economy on families. Families are breaking up but have negative equity in their home and associated credit card and car loans to pay. The ´fight´ is now over who pays the debts rather than who gets the assets. Another issue is the financing of the legal battle. Traditionally, family layers have been willing to wait until the family home is sold to get paid - not any more. There will be an increase in people self-representing in court, with the associated extra stress. There will be am increase in actual domestic violence and false accusations of domestic violence to try and qualify for legal aid. I expect to see an increase in mothers withholding children from their fathers, so that they can receive the maximum amount of child support and associated social security. I expect to see fathers stop working as it is not worth it. I expect to see an increase in suicides - yes, the state of the economy does have very real consequences for people. This is some thing often lost by those in the Canberra bubble. Google family court, financial statement or go to this link to check on your finances. bit.ly/2AbtmDS Good luck!
Great channel Martin. As a Canadian, hearing how (deservedly) down on the Australian economy you and Tony are and then hearing his "Commonwealth Games" analogy for housing price collapse with Canada taking the "gold" ahead of Australia, it really helps to drive home what a handful of us Canucks already know...we are absolutely f****d when the downturn comes. As is the case in your country as well, it is not just the real estate sector itself but the wider knock-on effects that are the real threat. Home equity has been the average Canadian's "wealth" engine from which they have fed the rest of the consumer economy for the past decade or more. Take that away and the dominoes fall one-by-one. Keep up the good fight!
Historically Martin husband used to work in western countries while the wife took care of home along with the kids.....now husband and wife are both working full time with less time for kids and still in debt....,...this will eventually lead to burnouts for both men and women of this nation.......
😂😂😂😂. What a great slogan Tony , “ if you don’t listen to DFA you end up with SFA”, Tony I love your emotional dose of truth . In my view Australia has made two monumental mistakes . 1) putting up with the bunch of HORRIBLE politicians since 2007 , squandered the mining boom on COUNTRY SHOPPERS ,AND HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEY ARE DOING , 2) the USELESS RBA ; should have commenced lifting the cash rate in 2012 onwards this would have excluded so many people who should not have got LOANS , The result we have huge govt debt , banks who have close to 70% of residential property on their loan book, people who can not service a 4% P&I loan . The rest of the world are bleeding from their eyeballs due to HUGE DEBT , one major failure ( e.g duetche bank ) and its all over
Most have no idea or the skills to survive on very little. Those already doing it will be the best prepared. All the others will be forced to sell their Audi's and investment properties.
Martin ... Appreciate if you could enlighten us with deeper analysis on the Median Values of Suburbs in Sydney followed by other Capitals. I have been reviewing the suburb profiles and median values for various property types.... I observed CONSIDERABLE INCONSISTANCY in the Median values as illustrated in Real Estate, Domain and various other data providers.
Fred your prediction will be upon us soon. People need to be prepared for a higher cost of living when the coming money print creates even more elevated inflation.
Quantitative easing hasn't worked in Europe or America, but that won't stop them trying it here though. Just proves it's not about improving the economy, it is all about improving the asset accumulation of the people at the top, who are the ones handed the virtually free, printed money.
So I was in a coffee shop today and a real estate agent walked in and whilst on the phone ordering coffee said "850 is a reasonable price .......... yes, yes I know its worth 950" But what I found perplexing is that 2 real estate agent shops no longer have their windows plastered with properties for sale - is this the latest trend or something else? Also, why are more and more r e agents spruiking around our area free appraisals - surely its not like they want more property to sell?
I don't know much about how they operate but maybe they are that desperate to get a sale so that they can get their cut? A bit suicidal because that would saturate the market with more supply leading to price drops but hey, we're talking about RE agents here. They love their moolah.
I received a text several days ago from a real estate agent saying thay have a buyer that urgently wants to purchase in my street and if you or anyone you know in your street want to sell, send the word "help". My interpretation is they are desperate for property that could sell. They have no buyers and the word help is a cry for help from the realtor.
Watched this video 3x now. Shared it with a few friends. This video just brings everything home. Kind of sums up the way a lot of us have been feeling. We hope you bring Tony back on soon. Cheers again.
Stock/share commentators are required to declare their stock holdings. What about property spruikers like the Kouk? Are they not required to declare their property holdings?
Always enjoy Tony's collaboration with Martin! I remember the late 80's when my mates wore hoodies bearing the words "Italian's do it better" printed on the front. Maybe time for this hoodie to re-emerge! (:
Thank you for ur honest opinion Tony,, that's the perfect way to say " I am ashamed of being Australian" .. There r so many wrong business , wrong economy in Australia,, people are living way over their earning,, it's time to come back to reality.
Interesting point regarding a sliding dollar. It could prop up the property market as many foreigners will see value in a property purchase. Setting all issues aside...Australia is probably one of the best countries in the world for lifestyle..
Thanks Martin & Tony for your tell it like it is video. If it is any consolation Roger Montgomery uploaded a video this afternoon with very good charts discussing the housing mess, construction industry fallout starting to show up in retail sales. So not completely alone gentlemen. Cheers from OD
18:32 Onyx development in Newcastle has collapsed. Deposits have been returned to investors and construction has stopped. Probably not the only, or the last to come.
Aqua Apartments in Warners Bay had subcontractors out front several weeks ago with signs striking over nonpayment.. Last I went past a couple of weeks ago, the site looked abandoned.
@Greg Tyson, I knew what you meant. I was just commenting that the video can be a different, pleasant thing, to someone who has already experienced the brutal "reality check" of what is really going on, that's all.
One thing I think may be underestimated in all of this discussion is Australians attitude to property, they love it, believe in it and my God they thrive on it! Was there over Christmas and was happily told that a house 30 mins from Newcastle with very little infrastructure around was a bargain at £800k.....it is this mindset that will soften any fall, you will always have a greater fool in Australia. I know it won't stand up to fundamentals, but I do think it may add to resistance to any crash!
@truth is indestructible It was big business who needed more consumers to boost their profits, and the government who needed to boost their reputation through continual increases in the GDP figures.
Martin, the concept that borrowers have no escape from negative equity in Australia is not true. Bankruptcy law in Australia is relatively soft with minimal consequences if you have nothing to loose. Example person Assets Home - sale price $500000 Liabilities $700000 mortgage Credit cards $45000 Personal loan $15000 Bankruptcy All debts wiped & home sold by the bank. Borrower excluded from the credit cycle for 3 years. Bank & mortgage insurer can not legally recover the debt. Person discharged in 36 months with zero debt & legally allowed to borrow again.
I love your interviews with Tony. He just says how it is. Totally agree with him on shit assets. Sell sell sell. Minimise your debt and don’t become a mortgage slave to the banks.
Margin Call - "There are 3 ways to make a living in this business, be first, be smarter or cheat. Now I don't cheat, and although I like to think we have some pretty smart people in this building, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first. Sell it all, today."
When you talked about being negative because the data is negative, I was reminded of the joke of the pervert doing the Rorschach test. "Me? A pervert? But you're the one showing me all the dirty pictures!"
Also increase your spiritual growth and resilience. We weren’t put on this beautiful earth to only gather possessions. I’m not a bible believer, but I’m just saying the earth is not a globe! Lol.
Property here in the UK has gone insane.In the most dreadful areas houses on very small plots are selling for in excess of £600,000,the houses themselves are mere coffins,with stand up kitchens,open plan rooms that act as freezers and a build quality approaching dreadful from the negative side.Meanwhile our British Pound is bouncing around all over the place.
Ha! Take it easy Tony.... 27:10 "Sydney is a bit of a shit hole"... C'mon mate yes Sydney house prices definitely over valued at the moment but still one of the greatest cities to live in across the world! You name it we got it here, Beaches, Bushland, shopping centres, quality schooling, Hospitals, multicultural dining options and the list goes on..
Tony , I REALLY like your statement that Australia is going to be the laughing stock.... for that is what I see coming and I am a retiree who actively gaining more and more financial knowledge, awareness and literacy each day! Didn't the founder of Singapore say Australia will be the white thrash of Asia....similar to what you stated.
Martin, viewers, do you know the RBA has a openly published policy of perfectly elastic money supply? As these debts default the RBA prints away the loss; at least for the owning bank, they won't tell you they've done this.
I think you missed the part where Fred said "openly published". I would suggest you go find it and do some research, but clearly reading comprehension is not a strong suit?
Tony, in your opinion Suncorp bank? How secure is that for any depositors with say around $100k with there exposure to those mortgages that was on the news recently?
I'm hearing a lot of reteric about the current downturn in the Australian economy, these cyclical events are nothing new, what I'm not hearing is what is the cause and how do we fix this. The two states that have created this mayhem affecting the rest of Australia is Sydney & Melbourne where values are going through the floor, this is no surprise, because houses in those two states are dramatically over valued, so I agree with some of the comments below, houses are not devaluing, their being brought back to real values in those two states, which the experts call a correction. The question is why are they overvalued? simply put, DEMAND. Demand gives Developers and builders an open cheque book, reaping in huge profits, with a flow on affect of higher profits to Banks, Government, Brokers, Agents. Demand should not be the catalyst for cyclical downturns, and house prices should not be priced on level of demand, but on real value based on, build cost + margin (capped at an Industry standard). Financial institutions when lending to Developer's/Builder's value the project and lend according to that valuation, the Developer's /Builder's then put on a margin, if this margin were to be capped, and the lending institution for the purchaser of the property, were able to access that valuation, the real value of the property could be determined, protecting the purchaser from paying over inflated prices,and having to borrow more than they should, it would also stop house prices escalating , which has been the main cause of the peaks and troughs, for many many years. Unless there is some form of regulatory standard, in how house values are determined, houses and rentals will continue to be out of reach for many, and Australia will continue to experience vicious cycles of bust and boom, and unfortunately, in whatever stage of the cycle we're in, housing will remain unaffordable and beyond reach, either due to price in boom times, or, funding availability in bust.
I'd like to point out that there are only 12 states in the US where mortgages are non recourse. As for the "Olympic Medals" of real estate, I'm putting Australia number one, followed closely by Canada than New Zeland. In Canada, thé madness hit mostly Vancouver and Toronto only. Hopefully, the bubble will pop later this summer before Montreal gets in too deep.
My sister has three properties in Perth. Bought between 2013 and 2016, probably all down now. What would you do there? They're already down. Will they fall much further?
Bust mark 2 Teeing up nicely now in Ireland. Can you imagine if we didn't have a bust in 08 and the bubble continued til now ??! This fake recovery has given a lot of false optimism but this time it's going to be down for the count . Great post
Maybe worth tracking the lending to households for personal finance as another leading indicator. ABS stats for Jan stated : "Lending to households for personal finance (up 1.2 per cent) was the only household lending category to record a rise in January" . But on an annual basis it was down 16.7%
If you think about it, wages will never go up, people can’t borrow anymore due to RC. Prices will never return to current peak unless a major shift happens
Best quote so far for 2019, "If you don't listen to DFA, you'll end up with SFA". Nice one Tony.
I took a bus ride to one of the postcodes in Southeast Queensland that Martin posted out. The words of Edwin the property insider were on my mind.
I just observed from the bus that is local and journeyed through a lot of the streets. My greatest discovery was many of the properties are rundown.
Rundown like needs painting, roofing, guttering, new doors, sheds, windows, blinds, landscaping... The properties that stood out the most are the ageing timber houses.
I had a revelation, while the property prices were going up, who needs to worry about the upkeep of the property? Why bother doing something if you don't have to! Well, that's great in the short term, painfully expensive in Long.
How can an ageing property in need of costly repairs, price go up two, three, four or more times ? Sure we have a property down turn! That's obvious, what's not obvious is the interior and exterior expenses needed to bring these properties up to date. My hypothesis, is that Australian's don't actually know what real house prices really are?
MrFourkinghell, Nambour as well as the small towns around it, Sunshine Coast. Actually even post codes not mentioned by Martin (One's not showing mortgage stress) had the same problems with timber houses.
From my observation of the state so far this negligence of mainly timber houses is systemic.
...It's a land price bubble. The actual property is secondary 😎
Rock On The Lough, agreed! Nonetheless, my hypothesis is a lot of negligented timber houses will be worth even less in the future. Due to the cost of bring them up to date. Perhaps, this is something Martin has not added to the data? Therefore, the scenarios forecasted so far will not have timber houses potentially moving further down in percentage due to refurbishing costs.
Was it: Apsley, Boondale or Geeburg?
modvs1, Nambour
In most of these videos, I always see 1 or 2 thumbs down. Surely Switzer and Kouk have better things to do?
New Zealand only gets the bronze? I think you seriously underestimate the depth of incompetence over here.
All the proof you need right down to a fake judge.
newzealandjusticeandpolitics.weebly.com/
new zealand is no different it the same over here just about a year behind but construction companies are failing
I think Aussie is still in the worst shape but it may not matter in the end because neither is immune to what goes on elsewhere.
www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/aussie-dollar-new-zealand-dollar-most-vulnerable-to-china-slowdown.html
if you cant pay you cant pay weather its 100000 or 1000 both countries citizens are sitting on debt bombs they wont be able to pay off but in America they had strategic default we dont the banks are going hound people to suicide
nah, we get bronze,
aussie claimed the banker who did all the damage here.
i want to know is what are they going to do with two gold's thank's to him
You guys are legends.. I lived in Sydney for about 20 years.. Always thought it was way over priced.. Ridiculous prices for sub standard properties.. And in some of the most horrible areas.. Don't get me wrong there are some lovely places too but in general paying a million dollars for a house out West with bogans everywhere.. Do me a favour.. Sorry to say this but roll on the crash.. Thanks Martin and Tony, cheers.
We are continual given false and mis leading information. We expect it, the BS from those who will do anything to make or create Money. Keep the system running, who cares about the people's lives, families or their future entrapped in slavery. Martin and Tony thanks for your honesty - Hard to take but will help so many!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You're brilliant Martin. Keep it up mate.
Good luck on your bet with The Kouk, Tony. I can't wait for the next interview on how to survive the coming recession. If I lose my job, I plan to dig up my mother's backyard and grow a veggie patch 🍓🍅🥒🌶😋👍
Why not start the veggie patch anyway?
I remember Tony using some colourful phrases to describe Sydney property prices on Sky News a few years ago. Not many people ringing alarm bells back then. Keep up the good work, guys!
Unlike previous down turns, this one is not going to be a mere negative abstraction. What is coming is going to be downright tragic. Decades of mismanagement and socialism on a world wide scale are bearing down on a public which for the most part are clueless.
DFS and their guests have done a wonderful job with their honest reportage on the local scene but the scale goes beyond Australia's isolated shores. Bretton Woods hangs by a thread and governments the world over are bust, as they only roll over debt and thus interest has compounded beyond the amount of money in existence.
The problems world wide, are beyond the scope of our present political and academic systems. Millions of lives literally hang in the balance. If we are unable to come together and reform, coming generations will either confront a new dark age of brutality, poverty and war, or enlightenment.
Interest-only loans is predatory lending in my book.
Such valuable content presented with conviction. I was thinking through the first half of the presentation that outlining basic financial survival strategies should be part of the message (subject to having the credentials to do so) and lo and behold the offer came up from Tony at the conclusion... Please follow that up Martin. That is as important as being informed of the dire economic expectations your data reveals.
Many thanks, Tony and Martin. The value this has to society is great, particularly as it is a public record of "We did see it coming, the warning signs were loud and clear, yet those in power intentionally misled the public to the detriment of the nation."
I haven't seen anyone point this fact out: The NSW State Government says it has raised a heap of money and spent it on infrastructure and paid off government debt. But the money they raised from stamp duty is part of the money home buyers have borrowed. So in fact it is debt, just debt that has been transferred to poor unsuspecting home buyers.
Wow, Gov screws everyone yet again
Best line ever "if people don't listen to DFA they will end up with SFA". Love it!
Agree!
What is SFA
@@investmenttudor1659 sweet F*&^ all
Enjoyed the video, Straight talking Aussies
Love Tony's frankness. Thanks Mr. Martin and Mr. Tony.
Hello Martin ... I was waiting for a long time on RUclips refreshing the page to see what's up today. Hmmm I was disappointed but now a minute ago .... Your video came up... Good on You!
Could not interview Tony until this evening hence the later post...enjoy...
@@WalkTheWorldDFA I know You would NOT disappoint us. Guess what a lot of my colleagues and friends have started watching the series..... 👍🏼
Great, spread the word!! thanks... @@AirIndiaAnand
My wife and I had a raging argument about selling a couple of years ago. I wanted out. she wanted in. After thinking about her position carefully, (and being debt free and deed safely in my hidey-hole) I conceded that she was right. My reasoning was this. If the property market crashes as much as I suspect it will (50-75%), then selling and placing the proceeds in a soon-to-fail bank, which will either be bailed in or collapse from derivatives exposure, then I might as well hold the title to a family home. If we'd sold, we wouldn't own the house, and if/when property crashes, it'll bring down the banks, and we would own the cash either. Lose/lose situation.
Here's hoping gold, silver and the cryptos take up the slack.
Don't be so careless. Ignore the data at your peril. Debt trap is hell, get out.
How bout your super?
Are U taught in school that federal reserve bank of America is neither federal nor reserve but a money printing franchise by the banking families to keep the rest of us as debt slaves...
No, had to learn that myself. Think the RBA (reserve Bank of Aust) should be renamed to the Rothschild Bank of Australia!!
Speaking as a family lawyer, I can already see the effects of the economy on families. Families are breaking up but have negative equity in their home and associated credit card and car loans to pay. The ´fight´ is now over who pays the debts rather than who gets the assets. Another issue is the financing of the legal battle. Traditionally, family layers have been willing to wait until the family home is sold to get paid - not any more. There will be an increase in people self-representing in court, with the associated extra stress. There will be am increase in actual domestic violence and false accusations of domestic violence to try and qualify for legal aid. I expect to see an increase in mothers withholding children from their fathers, so that they can receive the maximum amount of child support and associated social security. I expect to see fathers stop working as it is not worth it. I expect to see an increase in suicides - yes, the state of the economy does have very real consequences for people. This is some thing often lost by those in the Canberra bubble. Google family court, financial statement or go to this link to check on your finances. bit.ly/2AbtmDS
Good luck!
Martin, anyone thinking of buying a house in this current bubble has to ask themselves: "Do I hate my money?"
Great channel Martin. As a Canadian, hearing how (deservedly) down on the Australian economy you and Tony are and then hearing his "Commonwealth Games" analogy for housing price collapse with Canada taking the "gold" ahead of Australia, it really helps to drive home what a handful of us Canucks already know...we are absolutely f****d when the downturn comes. As is the case in your country as well, it is not just the real estate sector itself but the wider knock-on effects that are the real threat. Home equity has been the average Canadian's "wealth" engine from which they have fed the rest of the consumer economy for the past decade or more. Take that away and the dominoes fall one-by-one. Keep up the good fight!
This one was brilliant, Martin. It is such a breath of fresh air to hear people talking about the true state of things. Data doesn't lie.
Historically Martin husband used to work in western countries while the wife took care of home along with the kids.....now husband and wife are both working full time with less time for kids and still in debt....,...this will eventually lead to burnouts for both men and women of this nation.......
Thomas Ranjit Agree, however many have already reached the burnout stage, they are just too afraid to say it public.
@ Zed ...Feminism was a psyop and women foolishly took the bait, the government and bankers had to turn them from homemakers to wage slaves somehow.
Awesome information, we need to get back to the basics and live within our means again . Thank you gentlemen.
😂😂😂😂. What a great slogan Tony , “ if you don’t listen to DFA you end up with SFA”, Tony I love your emotional dose of truth .
In my view Australia has made two monumental mistakes . 1) putting up with the bunch of HORRIBLE politicians since 2007 , squandered the mining boom on COUNTRY SHOPPERS ,AND HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEY ARE DOING , 2) the USELESS RBA ; should have commenced lifting the cash rate in 2012 onwards this would have excluded so many people who should not have got LOANS , The result we have huge govt debt , banks who have close to 70% of residential property on their loan book, people who can not service a 4% P&I loan .
The rest of the world are bleeding from their eyeballs due to HUGE DEBT , one major failure ( e.g duetche bank ) and its all over
Love your Line ... "I am painting negative because the data is negative" 😂😂😂😂😂😂
That should be plainly obvious to people watching DFA. Poor Martin should not have to be pointing out that fact.
I live in Vancouver, you always see prices like 1.68888 M, lucky 8 to encourage Chinese buyers, btw, Chinese are not buying as much as before.
thank you!
I live in poverty already not much gonna change for me.
Ditto. We live in the sticks and a bank valuer put our 'palace' at $6,000. If prices keep falling we'll be in negative figures.
Most have no idea or the skills to survive on very little. Those already doing it will be the best prepared. All the others will be forced to sell their Audi's and investment properties.
Lets welcome the rest to our level
'poverty' . is . WHERE MOST OZ people will be soon.. third world... lifestyle.
Thankyou for all the information you share. 👂
Martin ... Appreciate if you could enlighten us with deeper analysis on the Median Values of Suburbs in Sydney followed by other Capitals. I have been reviewing the suburb profiles and median values for various property types.... I observed CONSIDERABLE INCONSISTANCY in the Median values as illustrated in Real Estate, Domain and various other data providers.
I predict money printing.
Fred your prediction will be upon us soon. People need to be prepared for a higher cost of living when the coming money print creates even more elevated inflation.
Fred Smith The money printing has already been happening for a while!!
Quantitative easing hasn't worked in Europe or America, but that won't stop them trying it here though. Just proves it's not about improving the economy, it is all about improving the asset accumulation of the people at the top, who are the ones handed the virtually free, printed money.
So I was in a coffee shop today and a real estate agent walked in and whilst on the phone ordering coffee said "850 is a reasonable price .......... yes, yes I know its worth 950"
But what I found perplexing is that 2 real estate agent shops no longer have their windows plastered with properties for sale - is this the latest trend or something else?
Also, why are more and more r e agents spruiking around our area free appraisals - surely its not like they want more property to sell?
I don't know much about how they operate but maybe they are that desperate to get a sale so that they can get their cut? A bit suicidal because that would saturate the market with more supply leading to price drops but hey, we're talking about RE agents here. They love their moolah.
I received a text several days ago from a real estate agent saying thay have a buyer that urgently wants to purchase in my street and if you or anyone you know in your street want to sell, send the word "help". My interpretation is they are desperate for property that could sell. They have no buyers and the word help is a cry for help from the realtor.
I. Bet the real estate agents are all worried about how they will pay their bmw lease repayments and will end up getting a tiny car soon
Watched this video 3x now. Shared it with a few friends. This video just brings everything home. Kind of sums up the way a lot of us have been feeling. We hope you bring Tony back on soon. Cheers again.
Thanks good to hear...
Stock/share commentators are required to declare their stock holdings. What about property spruikers like the Kouk? Are they not required to declare their property holdings?
Y User... Good point. No disclosure in my experiences.
@@latitudetwentyfive Perhaps there should be a requirement. The MSM spruikers are continuing their biased one-sided commentary.
Always enjoy Tony's collaboration with Martin! I remember the late 80's when my mates wore hoodies bearing the words "Italian's do it better" printed on the front. Maybe time for this hoodie to re-emerge! (:
Thanks Mt Tony and Mr Martin
Great interview gents
As the value of the property slides so do the savings put into it
Thank you for ur honest opinion Tony,, that's the perfect way to say " I am ashamed of being Australian" ..
There r so many wrong business , wrong economy in Australia,, people are living way over their earning,, it's time to come back to reality.
Excellent insight Tony and Martin, cheers! Love to hear more on the Perth market!
Always good to hear Tony, tells it as he sees it,a factor I think in why he left his previous profession.
Interesting point regarding a sliding dollar. It could prop up the property market as many foreigners will see value in a property purchase. Setting all issues aside...Australia is probably one of the best countries in the world for lifestyle..
Good point 👍
Thanks Martin & Tony for your tell it like it is video. If it is any consolation Roger Montgomery uploaded a video this afternoon with very good charts discussing the housing mess, construction industry fallout starting to show up in retail sales. So not completely alone gentlemen.
Cheers from OD
Had a brief look at Roger Montgomery content, it is concerning. Thanks.
Thank you
spot on.,WORLD DEPRESSION
18:32 Onyx development in Newcastle has collapsed. Deposits have been returned to investors and construction has stopped. Probably not the only, or the last to come.
Aqua Apartments in Warners Bay had subcontractors out front several weeks ago with signs striking over nonpayment.. Last I went past a couple of weeks ago, the site looked abandoned.
Great to see some Newcastle people in here. Gonna be a few construction sites bare very soon. I wonder if the one at Charlestown will get finished
Truth is stranger than friction..
House insurance rates are jumping up big time so the Insurance companies are expecting more insurance fraud as families fail to carry their mortgage.
Tony is an honest guy. Good interview!
Sell the jet ski’s hsv & fpv, what about the millions of boats, caravan, camper trailers, won’t be worth 💩
Hang to the caravan and camper trailers for a getaway from the Banksters.
Listening to Tony is like a punch in the face
Or, if you are sick of the blatant lies in mainstream media, it is a breath of cool, fresh air.
@@kyliepechler 'a punch in the face' is a reality check not a pejorative criticism - think before you comment.
@Greg Tyson, I knew what you meant. I was just commenting that the video can be a different, pleasant thing, to someone who has already experienced the brutal "reality check" of what is really going on, that's all.
@@kyliepechler All good - no worries - cheers.
One thing I think may be underestimated in all of this discussion is Australians attitude to property, they love it, believe in it and my God they thrive on it!
Was there over Christmas and was happily told that a house 30 mins from Newcastle with very little infrastructure around was a bargain at £800k.....it is this mindset that will soften any fall, you will always have a greater fool in Australia. I know it won't stand up to fundamentals, but I do think it may add to resistance to any crash!
Do you think house prices will get back to 3-4 x the median income?
Shaun Williams maybe look at the ratio drop in Ireland as a proxy
would restore faith people like us, but maybe 6-7 IMO
@truth is indestructible Meaning? What is the issues with Chinese and Indians here?
@truth is indestructible we kneed manufacturing as it use to be and than talk about more imigration
@truth is indestructible It was big business who needed more consumers to boost their profits, and the government who needed to boost their reputation through continual increases in the GDP figures.
Excellent mate
When the Women's Weekly starts publishing rabbit recipes in had copy not fondle slab "page", people might wake up
There will be tears and there will be broken hearts, but reality is the rock that does not move. Those who snub reality will be hurt.
@10:33 So True
Tradies...you should see the Sunshine Coast bumper to bumper people working in the construction sector.
Martin, the concept that borrowers have no escape from negative equity in Australia is not true. Bankruptcy law in Australia is relatively soft with minimal consequences if you have nothing to loose.
Example person
Assets
Home - sale price $500000
Liabilities
$700000 mortgage
Credit cards $45000
Personal loan $15000
Bankruptcy
All debts wiped & home sold by the bank.
Borrower excluded from the credit cycle for 3 years. Bank & mortgage insurer can not legally recover the debt.
Person discharged in 36 months with zero debt & legally allowed to borrow again.
Yes - thanks - Any other consequences - cheers.
Great work Martin
Can you get someone on who disagrees with your prognosis so that we get a balanced view
That is a great idea, some debate could be really interesting.
Waste of time
Awesome idea
Just listen to the talking heads on MSM.
I love your interviews with Tony. He just says how it is. Totally agree with him on shit assets. Sell sell sell. Minimise your debt and don’t become a mortgage slave to the banks.
Thanks, yes, plain speaking is good...
I'm with the Italian!
Hello Martin.
Candid. The data tell all.
Margin Call - "There are 3 ways to make a living in this business, be first, be smarter or cheat. Now I don't cheat, and although I like to think we have some pretty smart people in this building, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first. Sell it all, today."
Queensland EX Sydney resident who escaped has described SYDNEY ( after being had!) as 'SHITNEY'
When you talked about being negative because the data is negative, I was reminded of the joke of the pervert doing the Rorschach test. "Me? A pervert? But you're the one showing me all the dirty pictures!"
Love it, thanks!
Also increase your spiritual growth and resilience. We weren’t put on this beautiful earth to only gather possessions. I’m not a bible believer, but I’m just saying the earth is not a globe! Lol.
Property here in the UK has gone insane.In the most dreadful areas houses on very small plots are selling for in excess of £600,000,the houses themselves are mere coffins,with stand up kitchens,open plan rooms that act as freezers and a build quality approaching dreadful from the negative side.Meanwhile our British Pound is bouncing around all over the place.
What to do? not many solutions for the average worker... (1) sell! (2) MOVE FROM SYDNEY... to country area..
Wages need to go up. End of story. Record company profits. Crazy sh** in Australia.
Ha! Take it easy Tony.... 27:10 "Sydney is a bit of a shit hole"... C'mon mate yes Sydney house prices definitely over valued at the moment but still one of the greatest cities to live in across the world! You name it we got it here, Beaches, Bushland, shopping centres, quality schooling, Hospitals, multicultural dining options and the list goes on..
You might also be describing San Francisco, and look at what that city has now become...
Tony , I REALLY like your statement that Australia is going to be the laughing stock.... for that is what I see coming and I am a retiree who actively gaining more and more financial knowledge, awareness and literacy each day! Didn't the founder of Singapore say Australia will be the white thrash of Asia....similar to what you stated.
Finally Martin at 9.01 offers the bloody obvious that Perth's 'Cheyne Stokes' will likely play out over the other major cities.
What about the rental markets
Any insight on this ?
As Martin said in a previous video, prices are driven by credit, rents by income. Where do you think income is heading?
Yeah.. love Tony, calls a spade a spade. The guy should run for parliament.
good interview
I live in Coffs Harbour. There is always a focus on the big cities but what is predicted to happen somewhere like Coffs?
DFA or SFA 🤔 -
Stanmore is close to the RBA..?
Martin, viewers, do you know the RBA has a openly published policy of perfectly elastic money supply? As these debts default the RBA prints away the loss; at least for the owning bank, they won't tell you they've done this.
I think you missed the part where Fred said "openly published". I would suggest you go find it and do some research, but clearly reading comprehension is not a strong suit?
Tony, in your opinion Suncorp bank? How secure is that for any depositors with say around $100k with there exposure to those mortgages that was on the news recently?
Get real, will ya!?
IFRS 17..can u tell me about it plz...
I'm hearing a lot of reteric about the current downturn in the Australian economy, these cyclical events are nothing new, what I'm not hearing is what is the cause and how do we fix this.
The two states that have created this mayhem affecting the rest of Australia is Sydney & Melbourne where values are going through the floor, this is no surprise, because houses in those two states are dramatically over valued, so I agree with some of the comments below, houses are not devaluing, their being brought back to real values in those two states, which the experts call a correction.
The question is why are they overvalued? simply put, DEMAND.
Demand gives Developers and builders an open cheque book, reaping in huge profits, with a flow on affect of higher profits to Banks, Government, Brokers, Agents.
Demand should not be the catalyst for cyclical downturns, and house prices should not be priced on level of demand, but on real value based on, build cost + margin (capped at an Industry standard).
Financial institutions when lending to Developer's/Builder's value the project and lend according to that valuation, the Developer's /Builder's then put on a margin, if this margin were to be capped, and the lending institution for the purchaser of the property, were able to access that valuation, the real value of the property could be determined, protecting the purchaser from paying over inflated prices,and having to borrow more than they should, it would also stop house prices escalating , which has been the main cause of the peaks and troughs, for many many years.
Unless there is some form of regulatory standard, in how house values are determined, houses and rentals will continue to be out of reach for many, and Australia will continue to experience vicious cycles of bust and boom, and unfortunately, in whatever stage of the cycle we're in, housing will remain unaffordable and beyond reach, either due to price in boom times, or, funding availability in bust.
I think a segment on Vancouver would be interesting to watch
I'd like to point out that there are only 12 states in the US where mortgages are non recourse.
As for the "Olympic Medals" of real estate, I'm putting Australia number one, followed closely by Canada than New Zeland. In Canada, thé madness hit mostly Vancouver and Toronto only. Hopefully, the bubble will pop later this summer before Montreal gets in too deep.
My sister has three properties in Perth. Bought between 2013 and 2016, probably all down now. What would you do there? They're already down. Will they fall much further?
Yes likely to fall further in my view, tough call now... probably hold on (if she has 5 years plus to wait...)
I like Tony.
Loved the bit; Canada - GOLD, Astralia - SILVER....... why is everything in this country a horse race?........HE HE HE HE HE
nothing wrong with talking bluntly,
and we need more blunt talking from from tony locantro.
How do you see good quality farm land prices going in the near future.
When you loose everything you loose it you have nothing to loose
Bust mark 2 Teeing up nicely now in Ireland. Can you imagine if we didn't have a bust in 08 and the bubble continued til now ??! This fake recovery has given a lot of false optimism but this time it's going to be down for the count . Great post
Maybe worth tracking the lending to households for personal finance as another leading indicator. ABS stats for Jan stated : "Lending to households for personal finance (up 1.2 per cent) was the only household lending category to record a rise in January" . But on an annual basis it was down 16.7%
Number don't lie. Ain't that the truth Martin! Whatever promises politicians or financial shot callers make look at the source and the motive.
Data wins every time...
If you think about it, wages will never go up, people can’t borrow anymore due to RC. Prices will never return to current peak unless a major shift happens
Any updates for NZ??
Coming soon...