I very much agree with your top 3. I fear Villeneuve will miss and I don't believe in The Nickle Boys. I feel The Seed of The Sacred Fig and The Room Next Door will become major contenders after the Golden Globes and Bafta. The British Academy always gave a lot of support to Almodóvar - like winning director for All About My Mother and foreign language to The Skin I Live In, despite not being nominated at the Oscars - I'd be shocked if he wasn't embraced. Meanwhile, 'Fig' has a narrative and could easily win at big critics circles, in the same vein as Amour or Drive My Car. My bold prediction right now is that both Emilia Pérez and Seed of The Sacred Fig will be nominated for Best Picture, with the latter winning foreign film.
I see the arguments for Corbet winning and I've even said that if he does win then I'm just predicting whoever the hell is the early frontrunner for Director next year without challenging it as that would make two years in a row that I went astray from that orthodoxy and was wrong (I didn't have Nolan out front till October, you have permission to roast me), but if The Brutalist is not winning Picture (I personally struggle to see it) then I'm really not certain that he would go all the way unless everyone just collectively agreed to give him Director and another film, like say Anora, Picture. I'll admit that after seeing Anora (which I loved) that I did see a case for it to win Picture without Director, but I just think that this is the type of movie that if it's in really strong contention to win Picture and it dominates critics circles in that category that it would likely pick up Director awards as well. Part of me also doesn't really see the logic in a film that won the Palme d'Or, the most prestigious film prize in the world, would win Picture and lose director, especially to someone whose film did not win the top prize at their respective film festival (lost the Golden Lion to The Room Next Door). Maybe this is just a special case where Anora is more people's favorite film but people are just comfortable saying "well we can give it Screenplay and Actress but Corbet HAS to win Director". But this argument comes up a lot of years where, for example, people will say "well Everything Everywhere/Birdman can take Picture and Screenplay but we have to give Spielberg/Linklater Director" or "well Everything Everywhere/Birdman can take Picture and Director but we have to give Banshees/Grand Budapest Screenplay" and then they just win all three anyway. That doesn't mean Anora will definitely do that, and I'll concede it could be somewhat similar to 12 Years/Gravity but until Corbet just dominates critics groups then I'm not budging from Baker in my #1 slot.
More often than not Director and Picture are split, more often than with Screenplay. Yes sometimes a movie wins all 3 like EEAO but EEAO was an anomaly, it won its 7 Oscars with 6 of them being ATL, Oppenheimer had 4 ATL and 3 BTL so much more balanced.
@@georgeehret3480 You make some good points. Corbet isn't comfortably in the lead, so I agree with a lot of your Sean Baker analysis. Anora's biggest challenge will be trying to not seem like the frontrunner so it becomes Everything Everywhere and not Power of the Dog or Roma.
@@ConnorOld Even if it eventually loses I don't know that those are fair comparisons. This is more accessible than either film and fits the mould of the indie that could more than the frontrunner that falls off. Not to say it can't happen I just don't personally find it a perfect comparison.
@@ella2117 I don't think voters are necessarily thinking like that all the time. Like yeah maybe some will say "so and so is locked in this category I'll go ahead and give them a win in this other one" but other times they just love a film so much they want to vote for it everywhere. And I don't think they're thinking "oh I gave this too many above the line wins I have to take some away" it's just that most films are not win competitive in as many categories.
Oh Connor, you couldn't even address the elefant in the room, not even mentioned the word woman or female director, even in the lines of 'there are no films in contention directed by women'... Like any other year, also this year there will be lots and lots of articles about the lack of a female director nominee... Though... There are some and I'm still predicting the "foreign auteur" slot will go to Coraline Forgeat! :)
I'm thinking Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, Edward Berger, Denis Villeneuve, & Jacques Audiard. But having just seen Emilia Perez, it's quite overrated. Audiard could easily miss.
She probably has no chance but I'm rooting for The Substance to make it into a few categories including Coralie Fargeat for Director.
@@armando5846 She doesn't have a 0% chance. Internarional director. Very unique movie. If the movie gets some precursors she would be in contention.
My top 5 is the same as yours and in the same order!
Interesting point about Directors/Writers that are thought of more as Directors before Writers or vice versa
I very much agree with your top 3. I fear Villeneuve will miss and I don't believe in The Nickle Boys. I feel The Seed of The Sacred Fig and The Room Next Door will become major contenders after the Golden Globes and Bafta. The British Academy always gave a lot of support to Almodóvar - like winning director for All About My Mother and foreign language to The Skin I Live In, despite not being nominated at the Oscars - I'd be shocked if he wasn't embraced. Meanwhile, 'Fig' has a narrative and could easily win at big critics circles, in the same vein as Amour or Drive My Car. My bold prediction right now is that both Emilia Pérez and Seed of The Sacred Fig will be nominated for Best Picture, with the latter winning foreign film.
@@rafaelsolimene5350I like the seed of the sacred fig winning international feature prediction. Not my prediction right now, but would be a fun one
I see the arguments for Corbet winning and I've even said that if he does win then I'm just predicting whoever the hell is the early frontrunner for Director next year without challenging it as that would make two years in a row that I went astray from that orthodoxy and was wrong (I didn't have Nolan out front till October, you have permission to roast me), but if The Brutalist is not winning Picture (I personally struggle to see it) then I'm really not certain that he would go all the way unless everyone just collectively agreed to give him Director and another film, like say Anora, Picture. I'll admit that after seeing Anora (which I loved) that I did see a case for it to win Picture without Director, but I just think that this is the type of movie that if it's in really strong contention to win Picture and it dominates critics circles in that category that it would likely pick up Director awards as well. Part of me also doesn't really see the logic in a film that won the Palme d'Or, the most prestigious film prize in the world, would win Picture and lose director, especially to someone whose film did not win the top prize at their respective film festival (lost the Golden Lion to The Room Next Door). Maybe this is just a special case where Anora is more people's favorite film but people are just comfortable saying "well we can give it Screenplay and Actress but Corbet HAS to win Director". But this argument comes up a lot of years where, for example, people will say "well Everything Everywhere/Birdman can take Picture and Screenplay but we have to give Spielberg/Linklater Director" or "well Everything Everywhere/Birdman can take Picture and Director but we have to give Banshees/Grand Budapest Screenplay" and then they just win all three anyway. That doesn't mean Anora will definitely do that, and I'll concede it could be somewhat similar to 12 Years/Gravity but until Corbet just dominates critics groups then I'm not budging from Baker in my #1 slot.
More often than not Director and Picture are split, more often than with Screenplay. Yes sometimes a movie wins all 3 like EEAO but EEAO was an anomaly, it won its 7 Oscars with 6 of them being ATL, Oppenheimer had 4 ATL and 3 BTL so much more balanced.
@@georgeehret3480 You make some good points. Corbet isn't comfortably in the lead, so I agree with a lot of your Sean Baker analysis. Anora's biggest challenge will be trying to not seem like the frontrunner so it becomes Everything Everywhere and not Power of the Dog or Roma.
@@ConnorOld Even if it eventually loses I don't know that those are fair comparisons. This is more accessible than either film and fits the mould of the indie that could more than the frontrunner that falls off. Not to say it can't happen I just don't personally find it a perfect comparison.
@@ella2117 I don't think voters are necessarily thinking like that all the time. Like yeah maybe some will say "so and so is locked in this category I'll go ahead and give them a win in this other one" but other times they just love a film so much they want to vote for it everywhere. And I don't think they're thinking "oh I gave this too many above the line wins I have to take some away" it's just that most films are not win competitive in as many categories.
Oh Connor, you couldn't even address the elefant in the room, not even mentioned the word woman or female director, even in the lines of 'there are no films in contention directed by women'... Like any other year, also this year there will be lots and lots of articles about the lack of a female director nominee... Though... There are some and I'm still predicting the "foreign auteur" slot will go to Coraline Forgeat! :)
I'm thinking Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, Edward Berger, Denis Villeneuve, & Jacques Audiard.
But having just seen Emilia Perez, it's quite overrated. Audiard could easily miss.