no, I gamble in stock. I place my bets. based on gossips & rumors. tbh I win most of the time, and I let all my market experience out the window. because it is useless to predict it. the truth is ( the market is based on panics and news NOT pattern readings). that's how I work. and it works for me.
Please have a look at "Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets" by John Murphy. He neatly answers all common arguments people say against technical analysis.
I really don't use technical indicators that much, I think that looking at macroeconomics, current government policy and stats including company fundamentals in the long term have a better chance a success
I used to think this way, but discovered quickly that I was very wrong. One of the reasons technical analysis works is because people use technical analysis.
This "coding Jesus"...is so full of sh*t Just because he hasn't been taught how to trade he believes you can't trade. Anyone can predict the future. With two data points on a straight line trend YOU CAN PREDUCT A THIRD POINT BY EXTRAPOLATION THAT IS LITERALLY PREDICTING A FUTURE PRICE FROM.CURRENT PRICE Experimental results proove it again & again. I can predict the next 1min, next 5mins, 5hrs, 5days, even 5months into the future with 100% confidence ! Treat the market like a black box. It has a regular behaviour...while this Jesus can't explain reality of narjets...he fails other people have successfully modelled price (trend line is a visual model that works). Fckin academics can't do what my 8year old can do...he can trade using simple black box model I give him. It's all about whether you have the right understanding of the markets...THIS JESUS obviously doesn't hence he can't trade. (& Yes I make money from trading the trend, scalping, day trading, swing & position trading)
He starts saying that TA doesn't work because price movement is random, but price movement is literally not random, there are people behind every sell and buy and the future actions of people can be predicted (with various degrees of succes). Its chaotic and you dont control every single bit of information, but you can analyse previous movements and act acordingly. He also says TA people only use 1 indicator??? Thats a clear indicator that he himself does TA wrong as he doesnt understand or know how it's made. The patterns trend analist recognice are not patterns you use in society or evolution or even something you see with your eyes, you have to learn to use them and mean very especific thing, its not monkey brain sees monkey brain does. If you are day trading you don't really care about the long term price of the asset (even though you keep it in mind), what's going to make you money is buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, and you identify those points with TA.
@@CodingJesus When you say "TA is garbage" you need to clarify exactly what you mean. If you mean candlesticks & Indicators correlations, sure i agree. But if you mean Price action & short term momentum plays, i'm betting you 10k & willing to trade futures live in front of everyone to call you on your bullshit. We all know prices are random. That sole purpose of TA, at least for me, is to bet on the odds a particular system will work if i do it thousands of times, which has been obviously forward tested before hand. Essentially, you're trying to be the casino, if there's enough edge in whatever method you're executing, especially during unstable instances (Gap down, News catalysts) But on the other hand, i have to agree with you, on the fact that most courses out there are absolute garbage. Always looking for shortcuts in life, with those "Holy grail" indicators, nonsense.
Great video. I was surprised to read that the NY Fed did a study re: head & shouldersn and determined that they determine direction about 50% of the time (coin toss). Sullivan, Timmerman & White did a very extensive study of TA and determined that TA offers no long term or results (profitability). A 7 year old can learn how to read a chart, but the real stat (imo) is that 98% of traders are not profitable and probably 99% of them rely on charts. Only proof in the form of P&L could cause me to think otherwise.
1) Work on discipline, risk management, and trade stop hunts paired with higher time frame analysis. 2) Laugh your way to the bank while watching this vid
@@akaykenan9387 I think it’s a contrarian style of buying when everyone is selling and vice versa, at the established price levels but it’s just MY OPINION
only because a bunch of other people and algos believe the same things. Historical data is almost useless outside of fundamental and macro contexts. If something behaves in a particular way because of a chart indication, it's because someone has sold that indication as a reliable signal to all the other chartists
Trey is actually right but again isn't that what price is? Whatever anyone is willing to pay is the the price at x time. Whether the price is the fundamental price, or altered due to trading activity is irrelevant. Trading is a game, legalized gambling. Some win, some lose, prices fluctuate, and while they are certainly random, the trend is not
This might be a very different comment from the vid. But i study economics, and trade. Once a person understands how to relate macroeconomic concepts like FDI, CRR , SLR , GDP and study the budget of the government then trades in stocks that are affected by government decisions. Such as banks , real estate and other sectors like defence, one can make good predictions. Example , if a government is trying to help a certain sector , pouring in money and developing it , it's easy to just park the money in the index or pick a few top dogs. Yes mathematics makes perfect sense but the numbers are generated by Economic movements , so if you just know why and what moved, you make money irrespective of moving averages and bla bla.
This guy is extremely ignorant, tell that to all of the consistently profitable traders that use patterns constantly, including me. Of course we use multiple forms of confirmation but to think you need to focus on some “investing” thesis is just plain stupid.
@@MrAlb3rtazzo that’s what I was thinking. So many people want to put others on a pedestal just because they say they work for someone reputable or because they have a lot of views on RUclips & then they equate that with how much one should believe that individual or not. Technical analysis 1000% works, & unfortunately this dude just convinced a shitload of people who don’t think for themselves into thinking technical analysis is irrelevant because HE doesn’t know how to apply it, which is fine because it’s his opinion, but he should clarify he has zero clue what he’s talking about. 💔 Cheers.
@@90deltaderivatives35 regardless of what he said on TA, what he is telling people or replied on comments is full of basic math mistakes, i really think that either he works as something else, or is the worst quant in the world.
Day traders do not believe we predict future prices. We don't think that of it that way, at all. What we know is, millions of other people recognize the same patterns, using the same indicators respond accordingly. When millions of people see the ticker approaching (resistance) many take profits or exit their positions because we know millions of others are doing the same thing. We're actually creating the support and resistance collectively. It's not a prediction
Great content! But I have to disagree at one point - price is not random. Technical analysis is indeed bullshit, that is heavy exploited by professionals in the process of liquidity engineering. That's why the markets are predictable - if they weren't heavy manipulated, that would probably prove your point and price would remain "random". The only things that matter are order flow and volume, because if there is a heavier hand in the market that is manipulating the price, the only thing you can do is follow it. Nobody can spot big money using technical analysis, yet it is doable with order flow tools.
Prices are not random. There are also bad technical trading gurus who maybe indeed garbage. Technical analysis is not price prediction. It is finding value in availability and selling for profits.
"We as humans are hardwired to recognize patterns" ........... One of your reasons why TA is grabage actually supports why it works. Human nature hasnt changed Fear / greed. Price can only go up down or sideways and there are only so many variations it can do this. If you can find repeatable patterns and master them with good risk management / position sizing you can consistently make money. And many traders have and do make millions trading with TA and fundamentals or either or on their own.
Unfortunately for your viewers, there is a lot of misinformation in this video, and also a lot of assumptions on your behalf about people you dont know, including a ton of generalities that are dangerous if you actually believe these things. Technical analysis is so much more than the things you mention and works for reasons you didnt even address. I was actually hoping this was going to be a good watch.
Have you published your research in any finance journals? They would definitely publish your article, if you are able to write down your way of using technical analysis to predict future stock prices. If not, maybe you don’t know about the subject?
@@777jones I haven't personally but I can point you to 100 years of statistics, research, and backtesting if you'd like. Technical analysis isn't predicting, it's mathematics, cyclic behavior and pattern recognition. I'm not talking silly shapes, but actual signatures left from high frequency trading devices, accumulation stradegys and fibonacci based harmonic levels
@@777jones absolutely can be used for trading. The market makers and HFTs leave their signature in the charts. If you identify where they are going long and short, where they are accumulating, and historical data, you'll have a better understanding of where they are going. Understanding wave structure is very useful too. Wave structure is beyond trading, it exists in nature and abides by certain rules. These things combined with position sizing give you a statistical, repeatable, and profitable edge in any market. I'm not talking your typical youtube TA. I'm talking studies from the likes of Wyckoff, Bukowski, Gartley, Carney, and Elliot wave with fibonacci. There is decades of research, backtesting and data to support it.
@@jamesonalexander5410 You just finished saying it doesn't predict. You already had the right answer. Technical analysis casts a spell on people, and it is hard to break. If it does not predict anything about the future, it means it is not useful to make trading decisions. If it were, you could leverage your trades, and you soon would be a billionaire. James Simons did this, but he is smarter than you or me. He and others then deployed staff and infrastructure you will never be able to compete with in your life. At best, maybe you rolled some dice and got lucky. Hats off to you for that. I mean that with respect.
Your assumptions are wrong. TA isn't about predicting price, it's about reacting to price as it relates to volume and volility within a psychological pattern. Using support and resistance zones for better entry/exits
am not trader but i can say In technical analysis, you are taught certain strategies, but many people doing the same thing may create a volume spike, and algorithms might end up taking your money."
I watched this video and another one called "why i dont day trade" and I have come to the conclusion that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Sad Case
There are two extreme sides to this. People who think TA is some sort holy grail and then there’s you who on the other end of extreme. Most traders who use technical know its limitations and only use that as an indication gauge price action and come up with a strategy, Price is not entirely random because the very basics of stock price is supply and demand. There are prices where market is willing to support a stock and prices where it won’t. Being able to read these price zones from the chart gives a trader ability to make good entries whether short or long term trading and make better exits. Then TA can also help you understand volume price action at given time. Chart have predictable behaviours under many circumstances it’s just not right to discard all of these analysis. Holding long is always good if you are selecting the company right.
I spent about 9 thousand intense hours with learning and practicing price action, but I became "consistently" profitable only three months ago. This means, for now, I make a modest 0.5% - 1% profit each day. *Profit consistency would be impossible if the market were random.* Also, your theory that TA takes the least amount of work is dead wrong. I use *no indicators, except moving averages for support/resistance, gaps, trend direction/momentum,* and ATR for exits occasionally. Main tools I use are trendlines and support/resistance zones. *The market is NOT random (**1:00**). When I realized that price behaves certain way it became obvious that price follows certain habits* (1:09). Traders enter the market at certain place/time or the most affordable price - this makes it logical and predictable. If you can predict the market at least with 40% accuracy, as a swing trader, you’ll be profitable. *Contrary to your claim, technical analysts don't expect the past to predict the future (**0:43**).* However, price does remember where it was in the past and responds to it, which is a valuable information. Whether there is a higher probability in taking long trades instead of shorts will depend on the patterns price develops during its response to the past. It is this response that a TA takes advantage of. You're also saying that TA is stressful, but if you are doing it properly, it is not (at 2:08 mark). *If you follow a rational strategy you trade like an algorithm - you trade without stress.* Day trading becomes stressful only when you trade what you feel, not what you see. *There is no difference between the M1 chart and the yearly chart (**4:11**).* If they were side by side you wouldn't be able to tell the difference. *Also, indicators and fundamentals are useless to me- I don't need anyone/anything telling me what price is doing on the chart or when to enter.* Everything that moves price - inflation, earnings, deals, scams, crash, war, contracts, mood, news, computers - expressed on chart as *market dynamics,* therefore, the only thing I need to know is price action. The chart is the end result of whatever preceded it. *Finally, about patterns (**2:41**, **6:28**).* A good TA trader doesn't see a Head And Shoulders pattern as "bullish" or anything (6:50). He thinks in terms of probability. When he sees a HS the question in his mind is "what's the probability of the price moving up/down?" He looks for tendencies or inclinations and bets accordingly.
@@VSlip I counted the first 5000 hours to the exact hour. After, I had some problems, so I could only approximate the other half - that's why I said "about." My current win% is 85% and the Profit Factor is 1.41. My Win% is up from 67%, but the Profit Factor is down from 2.03. Whether I'll be able to keep this up or not or improve on it will depend on discipline in my case. Mind you, consistency is a relative term. I've never been profitable for three months straight. My goal is to extend this to a year.
But given that many people trade based on technical analysis, isn't that creating its predictive value? The head and shoulders example isn't a good prediction for a price, but it seems to confidently predict a thiker order book which in turn could be used to get a better price for a high volume order or something. I mean in essence, isn't a big chunk of the market just human psychology?
Price is also a function of views people are having over a time period. Charts are a view showcasing machinery. On patterns, fundamental analysis is also a pattern recognition exercise over the fundamental functioning of the company. The financial ratios do the same work as that of a technical chart over long term basis.
1:10 Undoubtedly, Statistics and data analysis is the KEY* to Quant trading. If one thing is going random, this is "USELESS" for doing statistical or data analysis. In every introductory level of Statistics Textbooks will mention this concept. If the market is random, you are saying the Quant Trading is useless as well.
In long term it is, and you can make profit from these momentary price inefficiency, then in the process making the market efficient again. Still, it is just a hypothesis, not definitive truth
Excellent video. Prices are mostly, but not entirely random, many short term traders are content to have win rates around 55% which is essentially a slightly biased coin flip and all you need to make money. But yes, subjective unbacktested chart reading is delusion, most traders lose and it's what most traders are taught.
You suck at probably. With 55% accuracy , we focus on risk reward. Which means we loose less on a loosing trade and win more on a winning trade... Probability of a head is 50% but reward in a head is same as reward in tails
risk management outweighs winning percentage.Richard Dennis used to be wrong on about 95% of his trades and was still the most profitable trader of his time
if you flipped a coin and applied strict risk management theoretically the statistical probability is that you would still be profitable or breakeven at the very least. trading is not about being right or predicting the future. none of us know wtf the market is going to do and anyone who thinks they do is lying or is just plain stupid
That is true about subjective analysis. But objective price action can be pretty useful, even considering quant trading. Of course that it's not the most important thing tho, the most important aspect is always risk management.
Unfortunately I can't buy into this theory because human behavior is responsible for price movement and until humans change the market will be somewhat predictable.
Right. The market isn't some abstract concept governed by variables we have no way of measuring. Subjectivity is a major driving factor and this can be predicted and recognized with the right combination of TA
so here is a respond from a hardware engineer that did DSP in a secretive company that made 1M a day using math - it is possible, but it doesn't seems that you have this ability. It is widely use in hardware signlas, and can be used in daily trading. What's funny is you say you work in a HFT company - which... predict price for milli seconds ahead.
HFT doesn't do any predictive analysis. It merely scans the trading networks for buy and sell offers then in a fraction of a nano second will front run the orders ahead of the big buy or sell blocks. Some think this is illegal trading activities and should be banned. If anyone else did this with inside knowledge, they would be charged a Federal crime and do a few years in Federal prison. HFT quants are a misnomer. It's more like HFT trading hackers that overide the network protocols much like the internet website or server hackers do. Sorry if anyone is offended but it's really true. Real quants actually model the equity markets using various mathematical models and theorems that produces high probability statistical analysis of the direction and duration of the next price movements. About 1% of these types of real quants can actually produce a viable model that works consistently over a significantly statistical duration of time. So yes most quants fail...90%. But about 10% will have a model that is somewhat viable that may work for a significant amount of time, but later peter out. And only 10% of that 10% will actually have a really viable model that significantly works for significantly long duration with minor additional tweeks for adjustments over time. These quant firms like Renaissance will thrive on making billions for decades. And there are a small handful of others. But they stay incognito and below the radar for good reason to keep their secrets. Thus his anecdotal and inductive reasoning is partially true but it is not completely true as he cannot account for these extreme variant anomalies that actually do exist despite his own ignorance or his ignoring.
@@arttorrez5548 cool, so do you run your own Python scripts? do you believe its possible to build and run models privately or is it a lost game? i run a few Python scripts based on stuff i learned in Engineering degrees with some success, but I always feel that it's actually luck. What you think ?
Lol... Yes of course! The key is in the CORRECT model. Most quants spend most of their time on backtesting, coding, and improvement of their model. Even a broken clock is correct twice per day. So most spend their whole quant career working on their broken clock models. The key is learning how to validate your quant model to see if you should even spend one day on it. I've discovered a proprietary methodology I will not share. I've spent a majority of time trying to find the correct model and have done test validation on hundreds of existing math formulas out there. A majority fail miserably. A small handful work somewhat OK but not every time. However after studying a particular obscure model intellectually derived from a known successful quant, I realized I had hit the jackpot. I also won't tell you which that is. I know it all sounds too good to be true and most will not believe me. But I have nothing to prove to anyone. So be it. But since you asked I will tell some. My analytical metrics are phenomenally out of this world with actual results of 5 to 10 percent grains on a daily basis. I can predict 2 or 3 directional moves within one session per day. Any hour of any day. No waiting days or weeks for a set up. It's based upon not one formula but a whole mathematical theorem. It took over 11 gens and 5 years to develop and is very complex. It's technology basis is unfounded and undiscovered so not nationally taught. It's completely unknown to the majority of the world except a tiny handful of people. I'm presently trying to semi automate it with ML AI via Tensor Flow which is very doable due to its inherently built in guard rails. I don't need to seek seed cash nor investments nor fame nor accolades. It's my own masterpiece of all my inventions. But the point I'm making is yes it is possible.
If you study Data Science or Statistics, Technical Analysis is equivalent to what they call Exploratory Data Analysis. TA is meant to provide details about the current situation. It is not meant to be predictive like Artificial Intelligence. People expect TA to be predictive while it is not, so they call it garbage.
Just because you can't understand TA, doesn't mean that it doesn't work. Just because you had a bad experience, doesn't make TA useless. I think you don't truly understand the complexity of 'real' TA. And by the way, it's not about patterns, indicators, or whatsoever, it's far from those things. Real technical analysis is all about understanding the underlying asset through price action and charts. If you really dive in deep (not support and resistance, indicators, etc.) It is actually really complex and you can make lots of stories and hypothesis just by looking at the price movement. Once again, just because something didn't work out for you, doesn't mean that it is useless. And oh, it's actually.. Not.. Random.. At all.. My 2 cents.
I strongly agree with you. All markets are unpredictable in the future. Technical analysis try to predict the markets. It is totally insane. We don't need to predict the markets in order to make money. If something supposed to happen and doesn't, reverse your position immediately. That's mean if you execute a long position but the market is going down, exit the long position and execute a short position immediately. Reversing your position is much better than trying to predict the markets.
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The entirety of historical prices have nothing to do with the price of the next second. The price of an asset at a moment is solely determined by the mood of the buyers and sellers at that moment.
Technical analysis is being used since the inception of trading, and successfully by many big traders. One can successfully apply entry point, position sizing, exit time thanks to TA. Nothing is perfect but with TA one can definitely improve his/her probability of success if he/she uses TA.
If you watch closely, many indicators work perfectly several times in a row and then fail, larger traders and firms can easily manipulate lower float stocks to build up Pavlovian expectations, then dump or radically alter strategy.
If you've learned technical analysis on the job and you don't like it, that's why... I could tell you what you probably got wrong right now, but really that would be the problem. One of my sister's boyfriends drove from Pennsylvania to Arizona, with his grandfather.. he falls asleep in the car, and wakes up on some bleak Arizona road, and freaks out, grabs the steering wheel, and flips the car. Technical analysis is like the height of that type of that... I think it sounds like most trading houses expect new traders to have taught themselves technical analysis with their own money, at their own house
After watching this I know you don't even understand what technical analysis is. It does not simply involve price, it involves price, volume, sentiment, institutional interest, earnings reports.. amongst several others. Technical analysis is NOT, nor has it EVER been solely focused upon price/ price action. You don't have to take my word for it, look up the men who invented it. Starting with William O'Neil....
TA could be a good simple exemple of a feature extraction tehnics, like simple example of a base signal Many of these series can obtained with different ML or Fourier function aproximation
How can you say technical analysis doesn't work. Run a strategy 100 times with a 2:1 risk to reward. If you have a 50% hit rate, you make money. Also, if you have runners, that money multiplies.
FYI all Fundamental Analysis is Technical Analysis. The only way sophisticated/true value investors decide if the price is right(to buy or sell) is by combing through a bunch of financial reports which are all often graphed and charted. So what do you mean exactly!?😑
The arguments proposed in this video over simplify technical analysis too much. I don’t know any TA traders that only use 1 indicator. Also the fact that he says 2 traders could draw 2 different conclusions indicates that TA is an art, not a science. You could make the same argument about fundamental analysis that 2 traders could look at the fundamentals of the same company and draw 2 different conclusions.
TA CAN work with the right strategy. I’ve found support and resistance to be the most reliable for tradable bounces. The key is to not trade your retirement account this way to avoid FUD and FOMO. It works because there are enough traders who recognize support and resistance as a valid way to trade- which in turn moves stock price in the short term.
I disagree. Technical analysis is not just candles. It is about location of candle patteren i.e in downtrend, uptrend or sideways. Along with this combination of indicators are used not only 1 indicator. Candle pattern at appropriate location location along with volumes, RSI, MACD, Bolinger bands will give you 80% accuracy to your trades. Its not garbage. Just you don't know how to use it . Its not a random gamble.
im not predicting price but i can tell you if i like my risk - if i buy a $1000 laptop on craigslist for just $600 i cannot predict that i can sell it for $800 bucks but i like my odds. if i see comparable items being offered in the same time frame for the same amount im even more confident. if i see sold apple laptops going away for $800 bucks on past ebay auctions i´m even more confident. And yet i can never predict that i´ll make $800 - i still like my purchase
I knew the second that he said that prices are random. I knew he was full of bs. I literally waited the whole video to clarify what he meant by random prices. But he didn’t.
Watching prices on a price chart on low time scale is random, looking at the the eg 1 minute time chart is also random, because low time price charts have big changes when people who dont even look at the 1 minute chart invest in a stock, whereas the daily chart eg, isnt soo random due to it being affected by earning calls or the CEO making a policy change, and FYI that CEO isnt making the policy change because the price chart hit a resistance line from 10 years ago 🤣
You say price is random... you're essentially saying the dollar or yen can crash to zero overnight, just like that? Sure it can crash one day, but before that happens price will move about between perceived value over time, and skilled traders can pull profits out of those movements using TA/FA.
I think pricing of stocks during the short-term which is exactly the duration in which traders trade, is absolutely random and has little to do with fundamentals. That being said, the prices are real as real can be. And that is because enough amount of people believe in them. And you know what else is actually steaming hot pile of shit but still has a ton of value? Yes, you got it right, MONEY! Similarly, the "patterns" that seem to emerge in charts also have a ton of value to people who are smart and are able to time trades properly, and they will make money while all the other suckers will inevitably lose. The only part where trading is slightly different from actual money, is that the majority lose and it's a zero sum game (unlike in the case of real money).
1:10 if prices are indeed random, then there's no edge you can possibly have, whatever other data you're using as a quant would be equally as worthless
Adding on that… if prices were completely random, then anybody who participated in the market would, over time always end up at breakeven. This is clearly not true in the real world. Interesting video, but it falls extremely flat, and neither does he present any evidence to support his case, beyond one hyper-specific scenario. He said he’d prove his opening statement, but he didn’t.
@@robertschwenkler8105you seems to mistake price appreciation with yield, which also includes dividend. Also there are economic reason behind upward bias of the market. Still the guy has complete faith in random walk theory and market efficient hypothesis, which is just the same as blind faith of the ta crowd lol
I don't know what your background is so I don't know how rigorous of a rebuttal you need to see but prices being random does not mean that you don't know anything about them. Even a gaussian random process still has a mean and variance. There are different classes of randomness and you can indeed have an edge if you understand the underlying processes and have a deep grasp of statistics or stochastic differential equations. What you mistakenly assume is that random means uniformly random where every prrice is equally possible. That indeed is not the case.
@@arashsheikh65 my background is CS and Ive been trading for a couple years now. The principle is still the same. What he said is, theres nothing you can look at historically that will give you an indication of whats going to happen in the future, because prices are random and randomness cannot be predicted (or it is not random). The idea behind trading (quant, discrete, etc) is to be able to profit from the difference in price between your entry and exit, regardless of the complexity of the methods you might use or the instruments you might trade, you still rely on something (indicators, models, less complex, more complex, etc) to know when and how to execute a trade. The methods you mentioned still use historical data, they would be still disqualified by our boy jesus.
ALL models (including quant) are based on previous data, by definition. Anyone who uses a model of any kind is essentially engaged in technical analysis, whether it be a price chart, an income statement, or current order flow.
The historical income and cash flow statements do not impact the price of an asset. The drivers of all financial models are predictions of the future. You have it mixed up.
@@CScott-wh5yk Management’s forward guidance and industry CAGR. Future revenue growth rates in most cases cannot be inferred by historical data especially if it is a young growth company. The only time I would use hard data from the past would be to calculate a discount rate.
@@abhinavgopinath5814 Industry CAGR is based on past data, so you fail there. Management Guidance is informed by past data, so you fail there too. And any multiples you apply to your forward figures are also based on historical ranges… there is no escape. As humans, all future projections are based on historical models and look-back analyses.
He's riding on the controversy. They can be *forecasted* screw this guy for not going into risk simulation & random chance. Don't let him pull your guys' leg
why would this guy be on you tube asking people the pay him to subscribe if you can earn so much. Wouldn't he be busy doing the stuff that gives you so much money.he just sound like a noob who has read a little bout coding and quants and just blabbers.
Let’s not forget that the biggest payouts in the markets don’t come from great performances but rather it’s great promotions. Stay invested, diversification for streams of incomes is very important
Leaving it in investments rather than my bank accounts is one decision I’ll never regret, over the years I’ve accumulated tons of wealth from proper investments in Bitcoin, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and stocks. Currently I plan on maximizing my gains and growing my portfolio even bigger
Be it a crash or rise the financial markets will always have lucrative means for folks to earn decent payouts. I’m just being inquisitive? how are you yielding gains
I’ll take investments in stocks any day they’re very remunerative only problem I’m having is I really don’t know how to go about it, I do get lost and overwhelmed by the markets. any solid pointers would be helpful, I’d appreciate if I got a reply
In general knowledge without experience, in the markets indeed can become very inundating, since the pandemic till today I don’t rely on full time jobs for money cause my expert Vivian Klaine Morgan actually pay off and I’m passively earning incomes. system has kept my portfolio elevated and healthy.
I disagree wirh this. I am a futures trader and TA is critical for my job. If you do not understand TA, it does not mean it does not work. Actually it works but... there are things that some people, even knowing some TA, do not know about. Some people simply do not understand the markets.
I don't know what kind of experience you have as a quant, but you really couldn't be further from the truth. Just some background for you, I've been working as a quant for nearly a decade and have experience across a broad swath of Wall Street banks and boutiques. Furthermore, I currently run a consulting firm. Many others have already stated many truths, but on top of that, tech analysis is used as part of a stack for advisors, traders, and analysts. That stack is comprised of chart reading, fundamentals, and all the fun quanty stuff that's involved with designing, backtesting, and possibly implementing of specific algos. It's not a perfect science with respect to accuracy and linear predictability, then again, no system is. If you were worth your salt in your field you would already know this. Technical Analysis is an entirely separate field from HFT, especially if you have worked at a prop firm, this is common sense. I really hope that if anyone is to gain anything from this video, it's that you have no actual idea what you're talking about and you're not worth a subscription nor additional views for spreading misinformation. Literally every major bank and firm I've worked at leverages TA to some degree for various reasons.
Even the largest hedge funds have a better return from long term holding then they do with their complex algorithms and bots etc.. they only continue use them because it's what customers like to see
I use fundamental analysis mostly, but i did start from TA. I've read a lot about it and what I can say is that you don't really understand TA yourself. And probably what price is also. Price is not value and these are two different things. Prices include emotions.TA focuses on these emotions, which can be visible in the price chart.
@@leosgf I don’t know much about ta, but I do know the market is based on emotions and rn there is maximum fear. Once the fear dissipates there Will be fear of missing out. I don’t think Jerome Powell is all that scary, do you?
The kind of technical analysis which does work to a certain extent and is used by hedge funds and asset management firms is completely different from what retail traders do. One of popular class of methods is statistical arbitrage. A lot of asset management companies use price volume data to mine alphas and feed them to machine learning models which in turn generate signals for trade. These are the methods which work (but not 100% of the time of course) so far as "technical analysis" is concerned. All other stuff that retail traders do is considered a joke in academia. But that doesn't mean it will never work. If a lot of people are following the same method/signal to trade, regardless of whether it makes sense or not, some will surely make some profit at some times.
If you do not understand something doesn't mean it doesn't work. Technicals and fundamentals are different things, they are part of a whole. Best traders don't only look at a chart only but they study the sentiment, news, fundamentals, psychology of the market, indicators, long term market regime and then the chart. This cannot be quantified. It is so easy to create a MACD based algo strategy that makes money, once you understand how the markets work, the risk and randomness of the markets. Prices cannot be predicted but you can control your bets and position sizes. Patterns exist, the market is so full of trading algos right now that they often repeat patterns in the market, when they apear they can be traded for a short period of time.
@@kiwizor9962 I don't trade, but I know poeple who made a lot of money trading, using Technical analysis. What the guy above does not understand that nobody makes trades based on technical analysis. Technical analysis is only for entries. Deciding whether to trade or not to trade takes big knowledge of the market.
When there are thousands of people involved there is most definitely a trend! TA is basically learning what the pack is about to do. TA works really well if you can see patterns in creature habits. The reason we have resistance and support lines is because we have thousands of people thinking the same thing and drawing their lines on the same chart. Sorry bro but I used to think like you! It’s not about price at all. It’s about human nature.
@biyodahi lmao,two years later,you couldn't make a million dollars from technical analysis. And you still believe in it? You're delusional, and you'll continue to lose money.
The most important counterexample to your position is the performance of james simons' medallion fund. But I agree that most retail traders should not be trying to use technical analysis to try to beat actual quant funds at their own game. In fact, if people stopped trading stocks at all and just bought and held the index, even the medallion fund wouldn't be able to make money.
After a lot more experience, I would say that today the main reason technical analysis doesn't work is that it is too accessible and the only thing to come of it for the average guy will be paying commissions, at the best, and losing even more at worst. Meanwhile, quant trading is technical analysis but it does any technical parameter that hasn't even been conceived of and seeks to optimize. There is no way for a human to compete with that, especially on a daily basis. Long term you could argue that markets have a tendency to go up, so just going for more volatile elements might make the more money. That's all you as a human could do.
Why focus on a single indicator? I use 200 sma, rsi, macd, volume, & 20/50/100 ema. Psychological support and resistance is real. Price is not truly random in the long term.
Yes , while technical analysis doesn't work , but most traders use it (T/A). So me as a trader I keep my fingers on the pulse of these traders (who use TA) by watching the TA on charts to see what the masses (traders) are thinking, and I act before they do , because I know what they're thinking when they're watching their charts. Trading is psychological , put yourself in the minds of traders and know their move(buy or sell) before they even come to their own conclusion and act before they do.PS: always put your mind into what the masses are thinking /seeing while ignoring your own thoughts . Its like "ask the audience "on that game show, and you'll be right more often than not . Also , prices are random , but people aren't , humans are creatures of habit. This is the end of the lesson .
I think you have not understood the meaning of video. Humans are not predictable, nothing is predictable if you know some statistics, both random movements, Brownians, determinists (without being conditional) or Monte Carlo properties, you can know that nothing is predictable, so if predicting something were possible then we would be millionaires, especially predicting humans.
@@PositronQ on the contrary, people nowadays can be easily predicted just watch their socmed posting, in twitter, fb, ig, tele, wa, how they choose the goods they buy on amazon, how, when and what they click the news, how, when, why they click the YT videos. If people are not predictable why there are bunch of data science topics in internet and why a lot of companies nowadays aggressively looking for data scientists
@@djimbrong people are looking for data scientists to mainly extract useful information that can help them generate profit to keep the company going. The End
Maybe you haven't looked hard enough or your definition of technical analysis is different.. For me TA is to be able to find a risk defined entry point that gives me twice the reward and has a strike rate of 5/6 on 10...it's good enough to build a career.. It's a lot of work but it possible.. And yes pattern recognition helps.. Doesn't work everytime.. But it doesn't have to. Just enough so you're striking 5 on 10... Took me 4 years to figure out a system... But it works now....week after week.. Same boring process but effective.. Just manage risk, that's the only thing we can control. Trade outcome is random.
@@ObiVEVO its just psychological game. if you're feeling fucked in the butt, others will probably be feeling the same. that is just in the short term though. The long term, who the hell knows, I just invest in boomer stonk
It can provide some clue as to how far price may move up or down by use of support and resistance, or that it may indicate a new trend is forming if the price is breaking out of a trading range with good volume. It is pretty hit and miss though. A lot of pump and dump scams can create false signals. TA will provide only the slightest advantage if any at all but I think whatever your approach, the most important thing to know is that around 95% of people who start trading will steadily loose money to the point they either financially or emotionally cannot continue trading. My advice is if you must trade, get as much historical data as you can and do simulate trading and see how well you went. If you were profitable in simulated trading you may have some hope of being profitable in real trading.
These kind of videos help me to keep my price action trading edge forever. Thank you. I love them people who didn’t put enough work in technical analysis try to convince others that TA doesn’t work. Just because you didn’t manage to make it work, it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t work. Anyway, you do you, I will keep using my garbage TA :-)
I agree w you. VPA (Volume Price Action) has given me an edge like no other. I respect this guy’s opinion, but I do not think technical analysis is worthless
Big facts. Let’s keep making our TA money 💰😎💰 With TA you have to have discipline in following your set of rules. You’ll develop an edge and just stick with it no matter how boring it gets.
He's a textbook trader.. just some nerd that listened to the lecturer and believes it's the word of God.. this is why formal education is such garbage😂😂😂
0:42 so basically he give a fake definition of technical analyzis just to make a garbage video without even knowing that the point of it is to get better entry and not predicting.
By calling the entire TA garbage just to prove a point about scammers selling it is ignorant. TA is simply a statistical tool (MATH) to get odds in your favor. Any good TAnalyst will tell you that it is no holy grail. TA also respects the random walk theory and also any other theories out there. TA is not just about historical price movements to predict future movements, pattern recognition, etc like this guy claiming. It is understanding what other investors/traders are also doing currently. It is also a measurement of exuberance, fear, and greed in the market. There is a reason why this guy is a RUclipsr(no different than others selling TA services) and successful traders are simply traders. Skilled traders do not need any services; these services are made for the lazy ones. Think! TA works, Quant works, Fundamental works, Buy-n-hold works, etc. You will find everyone in a different school of thought that has been successful based on their individual personality and lifestyle. Do not be ignorant like this guy.
The pro poker players dont know and opponents cards and they are discovering the board cards in the hand developement. However, some are on the top for years. It's a probabilistic game. Not all the patterns are confiable, and the indicators are bullshit, but the markets moves in zones, zones is equal to horizontal supports and resistences, including liquidity pools. If you could read the price action with a fractal view and a good risk management, you put the odds in favor to you, as a result, profitable. Allways we will have the uncertity, in the markets and in life. Cheers.
You are way spiteful toward us technical traders. Fundamentals, economics, price levels and then we use a number of indicators even candle sticks patterns help us. Anyone with one indicator wont make it a week
What I find interesting about TA, is that in the short term if everyone concludes that a stock has a particular trend (like up), then that will create buying pressure and momentum. So it's not entirely true to say that past price has no effect, because if enough people believe it does they will trade off that and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Having said that, it can turn on a dime so maybe there is an element of randomness too. My hunch is that Ito calculus is a better mathematical model for price movements that something purely stochastic
The "establishment" is moving away from strictly Gausian distribution in their calculus and starting to look at price action as a power law distribution. The Gaussian distribution assumption is 'good enough to cut the mustard' most of the time, but its most serious flaw is it underestimates risk.
Hey CJ, I get your points. A lot of quant trading is overfitting on past data and finding patterns in randomness. Just one question, if price is 100% random, then why can it still be statistically differentiated from a random walk? Think about the ADF test, Hurst exponent and variance ratio test. I am fairly new to the world of quant finance.
Crypto investor here. I can tell you some of these tech analysts do look at several indicators at once, not just one. They also look at many other factors at play outside of the charts, the market dynamics, macro economics, business fundamentals, and even the psychology behind investing trends. Not saying I would pay $700 for a Tech analysis course, but if someone has made 10 to 20 times more money than me investing, I sit back and listen.
"X is random, hence one cannot predict X." This is just categorically wrong, in every aspect. It's what one would expect to hear from somebody who has never seen a distribution function. The weather is random. Y(x)=ax+N, where N is random, normal-distributed noise, is random. A football match played between a professional A-league team and its fan club is random. The number of lottery winners for any given year is random. The introduction of randomness into a system does not render the system entirely opaque to analysis. You ought to know better than to utter such silliness.
Hopefully, you traders see the flaw in his argument. 3:40 He stated clearly that he "knows" price action is random. In 4:59 he also stated that he understood that price is subjective (meaning price action is based on the observer). At 2:40 He also states that people are hard-wired for pattern recognition. At this point you should see why the opinion in this video is flawed. Value (price) is based on the observer. We are social observers (group observers) hard-wired to recognize patterns. What appears to be randomness in price movement is actually a product of the competing intentions of social observers. Various groupings of social observers define price movement. The intentions of those observers with the most strength (volume and/or capital) will dominate price movement. Herd recognition and response to these movements creates more pronounced patterns. Based on group pattern recognition, the direction and duration of short term price movement can be reliably predicted with an accuracy above 60%.
@@p3nx1lz91 Clarity... All market participants recognize patterns (institutional, retail, etc). Fundamental analysis is just as much pattern recognition as technical analysis. All value is inherently subjective.
@@shonsavesclaims_1 well institutions don’t use TA, they have mathematical models backed by a lot of data by which they make decisions. Also fundamental analysis is backed by logic unlike technical analysis. Maybe technical works if a trade is executed within minutes idk. I’m not against technical analysis just have some doubts of its workings. Hopefully I find data which proves or disproves TA.
@@p3nx1lz91 Look up supply and demand zone trading.... 100% based on TA/chart analysis and is one of the most reliable day/swing trading signals. Also, if you think institutions don't use TA.... well, that's just ignorant. What you're saying is that institutions don't care about price. Obviously that's absurd: institutions are much better at managing risk than retail investors... so in that sense, algos very much rely on TA/price analysis. It's easy for people to pretend they understand the stock market. But really, anyone who claims with such certainty to understand it, really doesn't know that much....🙄
The comments are filled with cognitive dissonance and people scared to come to the reality that you can’t make money by doing nothing. Your charts will never predict an earnings fallout or bad news coming out.
The point of of technical analysis to have a idea of where traders/institutions/etc believe a product is oversold or overbought. No system is fool proof. But technical analysis, with good understanding of fundamentals, a proper outlook and experience increases a trader's edge. Thank you for you post, Happy trading.
At the very least, TA is excellent for revealing where the herd mentality of the markets are! Because so many market participants are believers in TA, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy and can absolutely be used as a predictive measure of markets. I personally have multiple strategies that seek to capitalize on the sheep trading solely from technical patterns and they've been working well!
Ever heard of Al Brooks. Go check it out. You will understand why hammers , tea cups and head & shoulders matter and why it doesn't matter. Technical analysis is but a small component of successful discretionary day-trading. If it was such a big factor, everyone would be shitting money and experience wouldn't matter. Yes, there are cringe content creators packaging pattern recognition as a course, but you would be naive at best to believe it is the holy grail for success in day-trading industry.
Cup and handle work wonders, I used it in 3 of my trades this week, All of them turned out to be successful. My mentor sometime uses head & shoulder at 1min timeframe in Future indexs. He makes roughly around $500 per trade. His monthly accuracy is roughly around 85%.
I'm one of her clients.... and I'm a living testimony of Expert Mrs Pamela. She has changed my financial status for the best, all thanks to my friend who introduced her to me
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As a trader, your statement "...prices follow a trend if you believe prices are not random, prices are indeed random." is a yes and no. Prices are indeed random, its the individuals who partake in the markets that make it "not random". We as traders look in the past to identify places where more people agreed that prices are a good price. We as humans implement fear and greed onto the charts in other words supply and demand. As a trader, I identify those areas and assume based on past history that these areas will play a role in the future. That's all it is. Yes prices are random, but the people trading the markets have patterns that we can clearly take advantage of.
Do you guys practice Stock Astrology? If so, let me know why down below!
no, I gamble in stock. I place my bets. based on gossips & rumors. tbh I win most of the time, and I let all my market experience out the window. because it is useless to predict it.
the truth is ( the market is based on panics and news NOT pattern readings). that's how I work. and it works for me.
do you sell ea?
Please have a look at "Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets" by John Murphy. He neatly answers all common arguments people say against technical analysis.
I really don't use technical indicators that much, I think that looking at macroeconomics, current government policy and stats including company fundamentals in the long term have a better chance a success
So what do you say we should do then
I used to think this way, but discovered quickly that I was very wrong. One of the reasons technical analysis works is because people use technical analysis.
This "coding Jesus"...is so full of sh*t
Just because he hasn't been taught how to trade he believes you can't trade.
Anyone can predict the future.
With two data points on a straight line trend YOU CAN PREDUCT A THIRD POINT BY EXTRAPOLATION
THAT IS LITERALLY PREDICTING A FUTURE PRICE FROM.CURRENT PRICE
Experimental results proove it again & again.
I can predict the next 1min, next 5mins, 5hrs, 5days, even 5months into the future with 100% confidence !
Treat the market like a black box.
It has a regular behaviour...while this Jesus can't explain reality of narjets...he fails other people have successfully modelled price (trend line is a visual model that works).
Fckin academics can't do what my 8year old can do...he can trade using simple black box model I give him.
It's all about whether you have the right understanding of the markets...THIS JESUS obviously doesn't hence he can't trade.
(& Yes I make money from trading the trend, scalping, day trading, swing & position trading)
Exactly. Short and Sweet explanation.
@@borntodoit8744 Thank you for speaking up.
Never thought about it this way 🤣, but as the dude in the video said, traders would look at the charts differently !
He starts saying that TA doesn't work because price movement is random, but price movement is literally not random, there are people behind every sell and buy and the future actions of people can be predicted (with various degrees of succes). Its chaotic and you dont control every single bit of information, but you can analyse previous movements and act acordingly.
He also says TA people only use 1 indicator??? Thats a clear indicator that he himself does TA wrong as he doesnt understand or know how it's made.
The patterns trend analist recognice are not patterns you use in society or evolution or even something you see with your eyes, you have to learn to use them and mean very especific thing, its not monkey brain sees monkey brain does.
If you are day trading you don't really care about the long term price of the asset (even though you keep it in mind), what's going to make you money is buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, and you identify those points with TA.
My lazy ass would love a video where you go over the empirical evidence.
Underrated comment.
If you weren’t so lazy you’d see studies I’ve referenced in the description of this video.
@@CodingJesus When you say "TA is garbage" you need to clarify exactly what you mean. If you mean candlesticks & Indicators correlations, sure i agree. But if you mean Price action & short term momentum plays, i'm betting you 10k & willing to trade futures live in front of everyone to call you on your bullshit. We all know prices are random. That sole purpose of TA, at least for me, is to bet on the odds a particular system will work if i do it thousands of times, which has been obviously forward tested before hand. Essentially, you're trying to be the casino, if there's enough edge in whatever method you're executing, especially during unstable instances (Gap down, News catalysts)
But on the other hand, i have to agree with you, on the fact that most courses out there are absolute garbage. Always looking for shortcuts in life, with those "Holy grail" indicators, nonsense.
@@ramsesp5009 100% agree. A very small part of technical analysis works better than random
Great video. I was surprised to read that the NY Fed did a study re: head & shouldersn and determined that they determine direction about 50% of the time (coin toss). Sullivan, Timmerman & White did a very extensive study of TA and determined that TA offers no long term or results (profitability). A 7 year old can learn how to read a chart, but the real stat (imo) is that 98% of traders are not profitable and probably 99% of them rely on charts. Only proof in the form of P&L could cause me to think otherwise.
1) Work on discipline, risk management, and trade stop hunts paired with higher time frame analysis. 2) Laugh your way to the bank while watching this vid
What do you mean trade stop hunts?
@@akaykenan9387 I think it’s a contrarian style of buying when everyone is selling and vice versa, at the established price levels
but it’s just MY OPINION
@@cernabonati7022 how do you determine those price levels? Do you suggest any materials to study?
where do I get started.
Agree TA can't predict future prices however it can be used effectively to manage trade positions.
only because a bunch of other people and algos believe the same things. Historical data is almost useless outside of fundamental and macro contexts. If something behaves in a particular way because of a chart indication, it's because someone has sold that indication as a reliable signal to all the other chartists
@@treyquattro don't speak of things you don't fully understand
@@tradehut2782 stay in your lane, in your hut
@@treyquattro Then you are just saying it works then according to you because everyone follows etc.
Trey is actually right but again isn't that what price is? Whatever anyone is willing to pay is the the price at x time. Whether the price is the fundamental price, or altered due to trading activity is irrelevant. Trading is a game, legalized gambling. Some win, some lose, prices fluctuate, and while they are certainly random, the trend is not
This might be a very different comment from the vid. But i study economics, and trade. Once a person understands how to relate macroeconomic concepts like FDI, CRR , SLR , GDP and study the budget of the government then trades in stocks that are affected by government decisions. Such as banks , real estate and other sectors like defence, one can make good predictions. Example , if a government is trying to help a certain sector , pouring in money and developing it , it's easy to just park the money in the index or pick a few top dogs. Yes mathematics makes perfect sense but the numbers are generated by Economic movements , so if you just know why and what moved, you make money irrespective of moving averages and bla bla.
This guy is extremely ignorant, tell that to all of the consistently profitable traders that use patterns constantly, including me. Of course we use multiple forms of confirmation but to think you need to focus on some “investing” thesis is just plain stupid.
totally agree with you.
he got zero clues about basic statistics and very basic undergrad quantitative finanace.
@@MrAlb3rtazzo that’s what I was thinking. So many people want to put others on a pedestal just because they say they work for someone reputable or because they have a lot of views on RUclips & then they equate that with how much one should believe that individual or not. Technical analysis 1000% works, & unfortunately this dude just convinced a shitload of people who don’t think for themselves into thinking technical analysis is irrelevant because HE doesn’t know how to apply it, which is fine because it’s his opinion, but he should clarify he has zero clue what he’s talking about. 💔 Cheers.
@@davidduries9112 🙏🏽
@@90deltaderivatives35 regardless of what he said on TA, what he is telling people or replied on comments is full of basic math mistakes, i really think that either he works as something else, or is the worst quant in the world.
Day traders do not believe we predict future prices. We don't think that of it that way, at all. What we know is, millions of other people recognize the same patterns, using the same indicators respond accordingly. When millions of people see the ticker approaching (resistance) many take profits or exit their positions because we know millions of others are doing the same thing. We're actually creating the support and resistance collectively. It's not a prediction
@condingjesus1 no
Great content!
But I have to disagree at one point - price is not random.
Technical analysis is indeed bullshit, that is heavy exploited by professionals in the process of liquidity engineering.
That's why the markets are predictable - if they weren't heavy manipulated, that would probably prove your point and price would remain "random".
The only things that matter are order flow and volume, because if there is a heavier hand in the market that is manipulating the price, the only thing you can do is follow it.
Nobody can spot big money using technical analysis, yet it is doable with order flow tools.
What are some order flow and volume tools that you reccomend
@@drek273 Personally I use jigsaw and am getting great results.
Prices are not random. There are also bad technical trading gurus who maybe indeed garbage. Technical analysis is not price prediction. It is finding value in availability and selling for profits.
"We as humans are hardwired to recognize patterns" ........... One of your reasons why TA is grabage actually supports why it works. Human nature hasnt changed Fear / greed. Price can only go up down or sideways and there are only so many variations it can do this. If you can find repeatable patterns and master them with good risk management / position sizing you can consistently make money. And many traders have and do make millions trading with TA and fundamentals or either or on their own.
Unfortunately for your viewers, there is a lot of misinformation in this video, and also a lot of assumptions on your behalf about people you dont know, including a ton of generalities that are dangerous if you actually believe these things. Technical analysis is so much more than the things you mention and works for reasons you didnt even address. I was actually hoping this was going to be a good watch.
Have you published your research in any finance journals? They would definitely publish your article, if you are able to write down your way of using technical analysis to predict future stock prices. If not, maybe you don’t know about the subject?
@@777jones I haven't personally but I can point you to 100 years of statistics, research, and backtesting if you'd like. Technical analysis isn't predicting, it's mathematics, cyclic behavior and pattern recognition. I'm not talking silly shapes, but actual signatures left from high frequency trading devices, accumulation stradegys and fibonacci based harmonic levels
@@jamesonalexander5410 If it can't be used for prediction (or trading), what would be the point of doing that? Hobbies, artwork?
@@777jones absolutely can be used for trading. The market makers and HFTs leave their signature in the charts. If you identify where they are going long and short, where they are accumulating, and historical data, you'll have a better understanding of where they are going. Understanding wave structure is very useful too. Wave structure is beyond trading, it exists in nature and abides by certain rules. These things combined with position sizing give you a statistical, repeatable, and profitable edge in any market. I'm not talking your typical youtube TA. I'm talking studies from the likes of Wyckoff, Bukowski, Gartley, Carney, and Elliot wave with fibonacci. There is decades of research, backtesting and data to support it.
@@jamesonalexander5410 You just finished saying it doesn't predict. You already had the right answer. Technical analysis casts a spell on people, and it is hard to break. If it does not predict anything about the future, it means it is not useful to make trading decisions. If it were, you could leverage your trades, and you soon would be a billionaire. James Simons did this, but he is smarter than you or me. He and others then deployed staff and infrastructure you will never be able to compete with in your life. At best, maybe you rolled some dice and got lucky. Hats off to you for that. I mean that with respect.
Your assumptions are wrong. TA isn't about predicting price, it's about reacting to price as it relates to volume and volility within a psychological pattern. Using support and resistance zones for better entry/exits
am not trader but i can say In technical analysis, you are taught certain strategies, but many people doing the same thing may create a volume spike, and algorithms might end up taking your money."
I watched this video and another one called "why i dont day trade" and I have come to the conclusion that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Sad Case
Do you make money daytrading every day?
There are two extreme sides to this. People who think TA is some sort holy grail and then there’s you who on the other end of extreme. Most traders who use technical know its limitations and only use that as an indication gauge price action and come up with a strategy, Price is not entirely random because the very basics of stock price is supply and demand. There are prices where market is willing to support a stock and prices where it won’t. Being able to read these price zones from the chart gives a trader ability to make good entries whether short or long term trading and make better exits. Then TA can also help you understand volume price action at given time. Chart have predictable behaviours under many circumstances it’s just not right to discard all of these analysis. Holding long is always good if you are selecting the company right.
Predicting prices from its historical state is literally like predicting a drawing from a scratch
one of the rawest and most enlighting youtube video I've seen this years (see decade). Thanks !
I spent about 9 thousand intense hours with learning and practicing price action, but I became "consistently" profitable only three months ago. This means, for now, I make a modest 0.5% - 1% profit each day. *Profit consistency would be impossible if the market were random.* Also, your theory that TA takes the least amount of work is dead wrong.
I use *no indicators, except moving averages for support/resistance, gaps, trend direction/momentum,* and ATR for exits occasionally. Main tools I use are trendlines and support/resistance zones.
*The market is NOT random (**1:00**). When I realized that price behaves certain way it became obvious that price follows certain habits* (1:09). Traders enter the market at certain place/time or the most affordable price - this makes it logical and predictable. If you can predict the market at least with 40% accuracy, as a swing trader, you’ll be profitable.
*Contrary to your claim, technical analysts don't expect the past to predict the future (**0:43**).* However, price does remember where it was in the past and responds to it, which is a valuable information. Whether there is a higher probability in taking long trades instead of shorts will depend on the patterns price develops during its response to the past. It is this response that a TA takes advantage of.
You're also saying that TA is stressful, but if you are doing it properly, it is not (at 2:08 mark). *If you follow a rational strategy you trade like an algorithm - you trade without stress.* Day trading becomes stressful only when you trade what you feel, not what you see.
*There is no difference between the M1 chart and the yearly chart (**4:11**).* If they were side by side you wouldn't be able to tell the difference. *Also, indicators and fundamentals are useless to me- I don't need anyone/anything telling me what price is doing on the chart or when to enter.* Everything that moves price - inflation, earnings, deals, scams, crash, war, contracts, mood, news, computers - expressed on chart as *market dynamics,* therefore, the only thing I need to know is price action. The chart is the end result of whatever preceded it.
*Finally, about patterns (**2:41**, **6:28**).* A good TA trader doesn't see a Head And Shoulders pattern as "bullish" or anything (6:50). He thinks in terms of probability. When he sees a HS the question in his mind is "what's the probability of the price moving up/down?" He looks for tendencies or inclinations and bets accordingly.
9000 hours man how do you even count them? Can I see some of your trades?
@@VSlip I counted the first 5000 hours to the exact hour. After, I had some problems, so I could only approximate the other half - that's why I said "about." My current win% is 85% and the Profit Factor is 1.41. My Win% is up from 67%, but the Profit Factor is down from 2.03. Whether I'll be able to keep this up or not or improve on it will depend on discipline in my case. Mind you, consistency is a relative term. I've never been profitable for three months straight. My goal is to extend this to a year.
I’m sorry but some of these comments are hilarious. You have to post a part 2. Nice video bro 👍
But given that many people trade based on technical analysis, isn't that creating its predictive value? The head and shoulders example isn't a good prediction for a price, but it seems to confidently predict a thiker order book which in turn could be used to get a better price for a high volume order or something. I mean in essence, isn't a big chunk of the market just human psychology?
Price is also a function of views people are having over a time period. Charts are a view showcasing machinery.
On patterns, fundamental analysis is also a pattern recognition exercise over the fundamental functioning of the company. The financial ratios do the same work as that of a technical chart over long term basis.
No because the value of a security today has no bearing on its value tomorrow.
1:10 Undoubtedly, Statistics and data analysis is the KEY* to Quant trading. If one thing is going random, this is "USELESS" for doing statistical or data analysis.
In every introductory level of Statistics Textbooks will mention this concept. If the market is random, you are saying the Quant Trading is useless as well.
In long term it is, and you can make profit from these momentary price inefficiency, then in the process making the market efficient again. Still, it is just a hypothesis, not definitive truth
Excellent video. Prices are mostly, but not entirely random, many short term traders are content to have win rates around 55% which is essentially a slightly biased coin flip and all you need to make money. But yes, subjective unbacktested chart reading is delusion, most traders lose and it's what most traders are taught.
You suck at probably. With 55% accuracy , we focus on risk reward. Which means we loose less on a loosing trade and win more on a winning trade...
Probability of a head is 50% but reward in a head is same as reward in tails
risk management outweighs winning percentage.Richard Dennis used to be wrong on about 95% of his trades and was still the most profitable trader of his time
if you flipped a coin and applied strict risk management theoretically the statistical probability is that you would still be profitable or breakeven at the very least. trading is not about being right or predicting the future. none of us know wtf the market is going to do and anyone who thinks they do is lying or is just plain stupid
5% gain is enough to make a killing in this business.😂
So you're saying using TA isn't much different from playing BlackJack?
That is true about subjective analysis. But objective price action can be pretty useful, even considering quant trading. Of course that it's not the most important thing tho, the most important aspect is always risk management.
Everything is subjective
@@alfredhitchcock45 No, math is not subjective.
Unfortunately I can't buy into this theory because human behavior is responsible for price movement and until humans change the market will be somewhat predictable.
Right. The market isn't some abstract concept governed by variables we have no way of measuring. Subjectivity is a major driving factor and this can be predicted and recognized with the right combination of TA
so here is a respond from a hardware engineer that did DSP in a secretive company that made 1M a day using math - it is possible, but it doesn't seems that you have this ability. It is widely use in hardware signlas, and can be used in daily trading.
What's funny is you say you work in a HFT company - which... predict price for milli seconds ahead.
HFT doesn't do any predictive analysis. It merely scans the trading networks for buy and sell offers then in a fraction of a nano second will front run the orders ahead of the big buy or sell blocks. Some think this is illegal trading activities and should be banned. If anyone else did this with inside knowledge, they would be charged a Federal crime and do a few years in Federal prison.
HFT quants are a misnomer. It's more like HFT trading hackers that overide the network protocols much like the internet website or server hackers do. Sorry if anyone is offended but it's really true.
Real quants actually model the equity markets using various mathematical models and theorems that produces high probability statistical analysis of the direction and duration of the next price movements. About 1% of these types of real quants can actually produce a viable model that works consistently over a significantly statistical duration of time.
So yes most quants fail...90%. But about 10% will have a model that is somewhat viable that may work for a significant amount of time, but later peter out. And only 10% of that 10% will actually have a really viable model that significantly works for significantly long duration with minor additional tweeks for adjustments over time. These quant firms like Renaissance will thrive on making billions for decades. And there are a small handful of others. But they stay incognito and below the radar for good reason to keep their secrets. Thus his anecdotal and inductive reasoning is partially true but it is not completely true as he cannot account for these extreme variant anomalies that actually do exist despite his own ignorance or his ignoring.
@@arttorrez5548 are you algo trading?
Yes. Former EE R&D design engineering at top tier company, now turned self trained quant math modeler, coder, trader, analyst, and inventor.
@@arttorrez5548 cool, so do you run your own Python scripts? do you believe its possible to build and run models privately or is it a lost game? i run a few Python scripts based on stuff i learned in Engineering degrees with some success, but I always feel that it's actually luck. What you think ?
Lol... Yes of course! The key is in the CORRECT model. Most quants spend most of their time on backtesting, coding, and improvement of their model. Even a broken clock is correct twice per day. So most spend their whole quant career working on their broken clock models.
The key is learning how to validate your quant model to see if you should even spend one day on it. I've discovered a proprietary methodology I will not share. I've spent a majority of time trying to find the correct model and have done test validation on hundreds of existing math formulas out there. A majority fail miserably. A small handful work somewhat OK but not every time. However after studying a particular obscure model intellectually derived from a known successful quant, I realized I had hit the jackpot. I also won't tell you which that is.
I know it all sounds too good to be true and most will not believe me. But I have nothing to prove to anyone. So be it. But since you asked I will tell some. My analytical metrics are phenomenally out of this world with actual results of 5 to 10 percent grains on a daily basis. I can predict 2 or 3 directional moves within one session per day. Any hour of any day. No waiting days or weeks for a set up. It's based upon not one formula but a whole mathematical theorem. It took over 11 gens and 5 years to develop and is very complex. It's technology basis is unfounded and undiscovered so not nationally taught. It's completely unknown to the majority of the world except a tiny handful of people.
I'm presently trying to semi automate it with ML AI via Tensor Flow which is very doable due to its inherently built in guard rails. I don't need to seek seed cash nor investments nor fame nor accolades. It's my own masterpiece of all my inventions. But the point I'm making is yes it is possible.
I learned more from the comments than listening to the beard guy
Preach, do love him for not deleting comments and letting conversation flow down here.
If you study Data Science or Statistics, Technical Analysis is equivalent to what they call Exploratory Data Analysis. TA is meant to provide details about the current situation. It is not meant to be predictive like Artificial Intelligence. People expect TA to be predictive while it is not, so they call it garbage.
Just because you can't understand TA, doesn't mean that it doesn't work. Just because you had a bad experience, doesn't make TA useless. I think you don't truly understand the complexity of 'real' TA.
And by the way, it's not about patterns, indicators, or whatsoever, it's far from those things. Real technical analysis is all about understanding the underlying asset through price action and charts. If you really dive in deep (not support and resistance, indicators, etc.) It is actually really complex and you can make lots of stories and hypothesis just by looking at the price movement.
Once again, just because something didn't work out for you, doesn't mean that it is useless. And oh, it's actually.. Not.. Random.. At all..
My 2 cents.
Three "trading guru" advertisements during this awesome video✏️
I strongly agree with you. All markets are unpredictable in the future. Technical analysis try to predict the markets. It is totally insane. We don't need to predict the markets in order to make money. If something supposed to happen and doesn't, reverse your position immediately. That's mean if you execute a long position but the market is going down, exit the long position and execute a short position immediately. Reversing your position is much better than trying to predict the markets.
The entirety of historical prices have nothing to do with the price of the next second. The price of an asset at a moment is solely determined by the mood of the buyers and sellers at that moment.
Technical analysis is being used since the inception of trading, and successfully by many big traders. One can successfully apply entry point, position sizing, exit time thanks to TA. Nothing is perfect but with TA one can definitely improve his/her probability of success if he/she uses TA.
The craziest part about TA is that the best most consistent patterns are the patterns that fail lol.
That's why you'll hear institutional traders saying they buy is a good lvl that means they're are buying at a good price
Don't you think small prices movements can be predicted with trade flow imbalance and order flow imbalances ?
Well, i do know thats a fact
Took me years to figure this out. Sitting, waiting and research makes me way more money than flipping day to day.
Technical analysis is not about predicting the future prices correctly. Its about finding the edge in prices and act on them using proper risk reward.
when there is more buyers than sellers, price goes up and vice versa, PRICE ACTION AND SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRADING ABSOLUTELY WORKS
If you watch closely, many indicators work perfectly several times in a row and then fail, larger traders and firms can easily manipulate lower float stocks to build up Pavlovian expectations, then dump or radically alter strategy.
Many successful traders can agree on this if they’re worth their weight, “technical analysis works because people believe it works.”
I can predict the stock price every time. Here's how. I buy some shares, price immediately drops. Never fails.
If you've learned technical analysis on the job and you don't like it, that's why... I could tell you what you probably got wrong right now, but really that would be the problem. One of my sister's boyfriends drove from Pennsylvania to Arizona, with his grandfather.. he falls asleep in the car, and wakes up on some bleak Arizona road, and freaks out, grabs the steering wheel, and flips the car. Technical analysis is like the height of that type of that... I think it sounds like most trading houses expect new traders to have taught themselves technical analysis with their own money, at their own house
I respect your advice but I have a question: aren’t you bound by Disclosure Agreements not to share your experience on Public Platforms?
@@thomasscoville1148 Oh man, good one!
Good question
@Michael Bolton , is this yours Spam account?
@Michael Bolton not everyone has the same experience as you.
@dev stuff birds of a feather flock together.
This man sound like a wise man, I am going to listen to this guy
After watching this I know you don't even understand what technical analysis is. It does not simply involve price, it involves price, volume, sentiment, institutional interest, earnings reports.. amongst several others. Technical analysis is NOT, nor has it EVER been solely focused upon price/ price action. You don't have to take my word for it, look up the men who invented it. Starting with William O'Neil....
TA could be a good simple exemple of a feature extraction tehnics, like simple example of a base signal
Many of these series can obtained with different ML or Fourier function aproximation
Hey, man! Great video! So, do you believe in fundamental analysis?
Thanks! And no I don't.
@@CodingJesus Maybe you can make a video with its flaws?
How can you say technical analysis doesn't work. Run a strategy 100 times with a 2:1 risk to reward. If you have a 50% hit rate, you make money. Also, if you have runners, that money multiplies.
FYI all Fundamental Analysis is Technical Analysis. The only way sophisticated/true value investors decide if the price is right(to buy or sell) is by combing through a bunch of financial reports which are all often graphed and charted. So what do you mean exactly!?😑
Ok you hit me in the gut with this one... ouch my dear lord
👊
I have watched almost all your videos , I must say this is pure content
Idiotic Contents!!
The arguments proposed in this video over simplify technical analysis too much. I don’t know any TA traders that only use 1 indicator. Also the fact that he says 2 traders could draw 2 different conclusions indicates that TA is an art, not a science. You could make the same argument about fundamental analysis that 2 traders could look at the fundamentals of the same company and draw 2 different conclusions.
TA CAN work with the right strategy. I’ve found support and resistance to be the most reliable for tradable bounces. The key is to not trade your retirement account this way to avoid FUD and FOMO. It works because there are enough traders who recognize support and resistance as a valid way to trade- which in turn moves stock price in the short term.
I disagree. Technical analysis is not just candles. It is about location of candle patteren i.e in downtrend, uptrend or sideways. Along with this combination of indicators are used not only 1 indicator. Candle pattern at appropriate location location along with volumes, RSI, MACD, Bolinger bands will give you 80% accuracy to your trades. Its not garbage. Just you don't know how to use it . Its not a random gamble.
Wow you’re absolutely right. I’ve been in the quant rabbit hole and I agree with you
I would imagine that TA works, if for no other reason that most people BELIEVE THAT IT WORKS.
A profitable trader using technical analysis watching this video nd laughing
Everyone’s a god in a bull market
Stochastic maybe, but prices are random? Holy shit batman that's a special kind of lunacy.
im not predicting price but i can tell you if i like my risk - if i buy a $1000 laptop on craigslist for just $600 i cannot predict that i can sell it for $800 bucks but i like my odds. if i see comparable items being offered in the same time frame for the same amount im even more confident. if i see sold apple laptops going away for $800 bucks on past ebay auctions i´m even more confident. And yet i can never predict that i´ll make $800 - i still like my purchase
people here claiming they're traders investing $2k in the markets lol
Those are investors lol
I knew the second that he said that prices are random. I knew he was full of bs. I literally waited the whole video to clarify what he meant by random prices. But he didn’t.
Watching prices on a price chart on low time scale is random, looking at the the eg 1 minute time chart is also random, because low time price charts have big changes when people who dont even look at the 1 minute chart invest in a stock, whereas the daily chart eg, isnt soo random due to it being affected by earning calls or the CEO making a policy change, and FYI that CEO isnt making the policy change because the price chart hit a resistance line from 10 years ago 🤣
Me too wtf
You say price is random... you're essentially saying the dollar or yen can crash to zero overnight, just like that? Sure it can crash one day, but before that happens price will move about between perceived value over time, and skilled traders can pull profits out of those movements using TA/FA.
I think pricing of stocks during the short-term which is exactly the duration in which traders trade, is absolutely random and has little to do with fundamentals. That being said, the prices are real as real can be. And that is because enough amount of people believe in them. And you know what else is actually steaming hot pile of shit but still has a ton of value? Yes, you got it right, MONEY! Similarly, the "patterns" that seem to emerge in charts also have a ton of value to people who are smart and are able to time trades properly, and they will make money while all the other suckers will inevitably lose. The only part where trading is slightly different from actual money, is that the majority lose and it's a zero sum game (unlike in the case of real money).
1:10 if prices are indeed random, then there's no edge you can possibly have, whatever other data you're using as a quant would be equally as worthless
Adding on that… if prices were completely random, then anybody who participated in the market would, over time always end up at breakeven.
This is clearly not true in the real world.
Interesting video, but it falls extremely flat, and neither does he present any evidence to support his case, beyond one hyper-specific scenario. He said he’d prove his opening statement, but he didn’t.
@@robertschwenkler8105 true. At least quote some statical maths and prove his points like a REAL* Quant Trader.
@@robertschwenkler8105you seems to mistake price appreciation with yield, which also includes dividend. Also there are economic reason behind upward bias of the market. Still the guy has complete faith in random walk theory and market efficient hypothesis, which is just the same as blind faith of the ta crowd lol
I don't know what your background is so I don't know how rigorous of a rebuttal you need to see but prices being random does not mean that you don't know anything about them. Even a gaussian random process still has a mean and variance. There are different classes of randomness and you can indeed have an edge if you understand the underlying processes and have a deep grasp of statistics or stochastic differential equations. What you mistakenly assume is that random means uniformly random where every prrice is equally possible. That indeed is not the case.
@@arashsheikh65 my background is CS and Ive been trading for a couple years now. The principle is still the same. What he said is, theres nothing you can look at historically that will give you an indication of whats going to happen in the future, because prices are random and randomness cannot be predicted (or it is not random). The idea behind trading (quant, discrete, etc) is to be able to profit from the difference in price between your entry and exit, regardless of the complexity of the methods you might use or the instruments you might trade, you still rely on something (indicators, models, less complex, more complex, etc) to know when and how to execute a trade. The methods you mentioned still use historical data, they would be still disqualified by our boy jesus.
ALL models (including quant) are based on previous data, by definition. Anyone who uses a model of any kind is essentially engaged in technical analysis, whether it be a price chart, an income statement, or current order flow.
The historical income and cash flow statements do not impact the price of an asset. The drivers of all financial models are predictions of the future. You have it mixed up.
@@abhinavgopinath5814 and what inputs do you use for your predictions? Seems you have it backwards. Data first, model second, obviously.
@@CScott-wh5yk Management’s forward guidance and industry CAGR. Future revenue growth rates in most cases cannot be inferred by historical data especially if it is a young growth company. The only time I would use hard data from the past would be to calculate a discount rate.
@@abhinavgopinath5814 Industry CAGR is based on past data, so you fail there. Management Guidance is informed by past data, so you fail there too. And any multiples you apply to your forward figures are also based on historical ranges… there is no escape. As humans, all future projections are based on historical models and look-back analyses.
@@CScott-wh5yk I would love to see you make a DCF, you seem like an expert on everything.
This guy ain’t got a clue what he’s talking about. He wants us to die for his sins.
He's riding on the controversy. They can be *forecasted* screw this guy for not going into risk simulation & random chance.
Don't let him pull your guys' leg
@@drippinwet774 guess TSLA never on his radar with those T-Rex DCF projections..lol He learned coding in 3 months and he is Steve Cohen
Die for his sins 🤣🤣🤣 I like this expression. Will borrow it from you 😂
totally agree
@@drippinwet774 Anything can be forecasted. It doesn't mean your forecast and risk models have any power in the real world.
The deep irony is that this guy is apparently serious and hasn't understood that quant trading IS technical analysis.
why would this guy be on you tube asking people the pay him to subscribe if you can earn so much. Wouldn't he be busy doing the stuff that gives you so much money.he just sound like a noob who has read a little bout coding and quants and just blabbers.
And he look poor for all the Supposedly great knowledge he has
I think he always gets stopped out, noob.
@@kushalkatkar2523 how much have you made from trading?
@@RapCityco lmao 🤣
Let’s not forget that the biggest payouts in the markets don’t come from great performances but rather it’s great promotions. Stay invested, diversification for streams of incomes is very important
Leaving it in investments rather than my bank accounts is one decision I’ll never regret, over the years I’ve accumulated tons of wealth from proper investments in Bitcoin, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and stocks. Currently I plan on maximizing my gains and growing my portfolio even bigger
Be it a crash or rise the financial markets will always have lucrative means for folks to earn decent payouts. I’m just being inquisitive? how are you yielding gains
I’ll take investments in stocks any day they’re very remunerative only problem I’m having is I really don’t know how to go about it, I do get lost and overwhelmed by the markets. any solid pointers would be helpful, I’d appreciate if I got a reply
In general knowledge without experience, in the markets indeed can become very inundating, since the pandemic till today I don’t rely on full time jobs for money cause my expert Vivian Klaine Morgan actually pay off and I’m passively earning incomes. system has kept my portfolio elevated and healthy.
How do I reach her ,you got any possible means of getting more info on her services?
I disagree wirh this. I am a futures trader and TA is critical for my job. If you do not understand TA, it does not mean it does not work. Actually it works but... there are things that some people, even knowing some TA, do not know about. Some people simply do not understand the markets.
I don't know what kind of experience you have as a quant, but you really couldn't be further from the truth. Just some background for you, I've been working as a quant for nearly a decade and have experience across a broad swath of Wall Street banks and boutiques. Furthermore, I currently run a consulting firm.
Many others have already stated many truths, but on top of that, tech analysis is used as part of a stack for advisors, traders, and analysts. That stack is comprised of chart reading, fundamentals, and all the fun quanty stuff that's involved with designing, backtesting, and possibly implementing of specific algos. It's not a perfect science with respect to accuracy and linear predictability, then again, no system is. If you were worth your salt in your field you would already know this. Technical Analysis is an entirely separate field from HFT, especially if you have worked at a prop firm, this is common sense.
I really hope that if anyone is to gain anything from this video, it's that you have no actual idea what you're talking about and you're not worth a subscription nor additional views for spreading misinformation. Literally every major bank and firm I've worked at leverages TA to some degree for various reasons.
Exactly, on another video I cant remember exactly but I'm sure he said he worked at a firm for a year as a quant, now he thinks he knows everything
Ummm sir, start your own RUclips channel. I’ve already subscribed to u. Make videos pls 😂. Would love to learn more from u 💯
Even the largest hedge funds have a better return from long term holding then they do with their complex algorithms and bots etc.. they only continue use them because it's what customers like to see
🤣🤣🤣
Even I came to the same conclusion, he doesnt have much experience with the daily grind the market puts a trader thru and the learning it offers.
I use fundamental analysis mostly, but i did start from TA. I've read a lot about it and what I can say is that you don't really understand TA yourself. And probably what price is also. Price is not value and these are two different things. Prices include emotions.TA focuses on these emotions, which can be visible in the price chart.
Please share your real results with us
@@leosgf I don’t know much about ta, but I do know the market is based on emotions and rn there is maximum fear. Once the fear dissipates there Will be fear of missing out. I don’t think Jerome Powell is all that scary, do you?
It works. Use FA. TA and what whales are buying
@@leosgf mine had been 90% success
Imagine telling an actual quant dev he can’t understand TA lmaooo
The kind of technical analysis which does work to a certain extent and is used by hedge funds and asset management firms is completely different from what retail traders do. One of popular class of methods is statistical arbitrage. A lot of asset management companies use price volume data to mine alphas and feed them to machine learning models which in turn generate signals for trade. These are the methods which work (but not 100% of the time of course) so far as "technical analysis" is concerned. All other stuff that retail traders do is considered a joke in academia. But that doesn't mean it will never work. If a lot of people are following the same method/signal to trade, regardless of whether it makes sense or not, some will surely make some profit at some times.
I've been using alphas based on sentiment
That is exactly what I do as a retail trading quant. Find statistical alphas using TA indicators, code bots to take advantages of them. Profit.
If you do not understand something doesn't mean it doesn't work. Technicals and fundamentals are different things, they are part of a whole. Best traders don't only look at a chart only but they study the sentiment, news, fundamentals, psychology of the market, indicators, long term market regime and then the chart. This cannot be quantified.
It is so easy to create a MACD based algo strategy that makes money, once you understand how the markets work, the risk and randomness of the markets.
Prices cannot be predicted but you can control your bets and position sizes.
Patterns exist, the market is so full of trading algos right now that they often repeat patterns in the market, when they apear they can be traded for a short period of time.
there are not many good traders. You don't know what a good trader does. You are just pretending, the same as every other commenter.
how much % have you made over the last 5 years lollll
@@kiwizor9962 I don't trade, but I know poeple who made a lot of money trading, using Technical analysis. What the guy above does not understand that nobody makes trades based on technical analysis. Technical analysis is only for entries. Deciding whether to trade or not to trade takes big knowledge of the market.
When there are thousands of people involved there is most definitely a trend! TA is basically learning what the pack is about to do. TA works really well if you can see patterns in creature habits. The reason we have resistance and support lines is because we have thousands of people thinking the same thing and drawing their lines on the same chart.
Sorry bro but I used to think like you! It’s not about price at all. It’s about human nature.
So how much money have you made from technical analysis? Do you really believe you can turn $1000 into $1 million with day trading?
@@oentrepreneur yep
@@biyodahi where do i get started, any groups you know?
@biyodahi lmao,two years later,you couldn't make a million dollars from technical analysis. And you still believe in it? You're delusional, and you'll continue to lose money.
@biyodahi two years later you couldn't turn $1000 into $1 million and you still believe you can become a million with technical analysis? Lmao
The most important counterexample to your position is the performance of james simons' medallion fund. But I agree that most retail traders should not be trying to use technical analysis to try to beat actual quant funds at their own game. In fact, if people stopped trading stocks at all and just bought and held the index, even the medallion fund wouldn't be able to make money.
The medallion fund was built upon quantitative and mathematical models incorporating vast amounts of data sets not technical analysis.
After a lot more experience, I would say that today the main reason technical analysis doesn't work is that it is too accessible and the only thing to come of it for the average guy will be paying commissions, at the best, and losing even more at worst.
Meanwhile, quant trading is technical analysis but it does any technical parameter that hasn't even been conceived of and seeks to optimize. There is no way for a human to compete with that, especially on a daily basis. Long term you could argue that markets have a tendency to go up, so just going for more volatile elements might make the more money. That's all you as a human could do.
You think mathematicians trade on technicals? 🤣🤡
@@Dan-uf2vh Stop spamming this same post fucker
Why focus on a single indicator? I use 200 sma, rsi, macd, volume, & 20/50/100 ema. Psychological support and resistance is real. Price is not truly random in the long term.
"Quant Lead" gives me "Tech Lead" vibes, shivers
omg I get the same vibes! (as a millionaire)
Yes , while technical analysis doesn't work , but most traders use it (T/A). So me as a trader I keep
my fingers on the pulse of these traders (who use TA) by watching the TA on charts to see what the
masses (traders) are thinking, and I act before they do , because I know what they're thinking when they're watching their charts. Trading is psychological , put yourself in the minds of traders and know their move(buy or sell) before they even come to their own conclusion and act before they do.PS: always put your mind into what the masses are thinking /seeing while ignoring your own thoughts . Its like "ask the audience "on that game show, and you'll be right more often than not . Also , prices are random , but people aren't , humans are creatures of habit. This is the end of the lesson .
I think you have not understood the meaning of video. Humans are not predictable, nothing is predictable if you know some statistics, both random movements, Brownians, determinists (without being conditional) or Monte Carlo properties, you can know that nothing is predictable, so if predicting something were possible then we would be millionaires, especially predicting humans.
@@PositronQ on the contrary, people nowadays can be easily predicted just watch their socmed posting, in twitter, fb, ig, tele, wa, how they choose the goods they buy on amazon, how, when and what they click the news, how, when, why they click the YT videos. If people are not predictable why there are bunch of data science topics in internet and why a lot of companies nowadays aggressively looking for data scientists
@@djimbrong people are looking for data scientists to mainly extract useful information that can help them generate profit to keep the company going. The End
movements in market can be predicted not 100% , cuz no one is the algo
@@highpofly at least you tried
Maybe you haven't looked hard enough or your definition of technical analysis is different.. For me TA is to be able to find a risk defined entry point that gives me twice the reward and has a strike rate of 5/6 on 10...it's good enough to build a career.. It's a lot of work but it possible.. And yes pattern recognition helps.. Doesn't work everytime.. But it doesn't have to. Just enough so you're striking 5 on 10... Took me 4 years to figure out a system... But it works now....week after week.. Same boring process but effective.. Just manage risk, that's the only thing we can control. Trade outcome is random.
Maybe you can share please ?
We should create a group session? Inbox me
Very well said
I love the fact that you talk about risk management and steady growth
“For me TA means - Doesn’t explain TA. Trade outcome is random, but not the exit”… Literally the same 2 things.
technical analysis is not used to predict the future, but to read the present market.
And why do you want to understand the present market. Could it be to make bets on what the future will look like?
@@ObiVEVO its just psychological game. if you're feeling fucked in the butt, others will probably be feeling the same. that is just in the short term though. The long term, who the hell knows, I just invest in boomer stonk
Human psychology also
It can provide some clue as to how far price may move up or down by use of support and resistance, or that it may indicate a new trend is forming if the price is breaking out of a trading range with good volume. It is pretty hit and miss though. A lot of pump and dump scams can create false signals. TA will provide only the slightest advantage if any at all but I think whatever your approach, the most important thing to know is that around 95% of people who start trading will steadily loose money to the point they either financially or emotionally cannot continue trading. My advice is if you must trade, get as much historical data as you can and do simulate trading and see how well you went. If you were profitable in simulated trading you may have some hope of being profitable in real trading.
@@ObiVEVO Do tennis players read the future every time they successfully connect their racquet the ball :)
These kind of videos help me to keep my price action trading edge forever. Thank you. I love them people who didn’t put enough work in technical analysis try to convince others that TA doesn’t work. Just because you didn’t manage to make it work, it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t work. Anyway, you do you, I will keep using my garbage TA :-)
And he even has the audacity to claim that he "knows the truth". What a poor, ignorant men he is...
I agree w you. VPA (Volume Price Action) has given me an edge like no other. I respect this guy’s opinion, but I do not think technical analysis is worthless
Big facts. Let’s keep making our TA money
💰😎💰 With TA you have to have discipline in following your set of rules. You’ll develop an edge and just stick with it no matter how boring it gets.
For real! This guy gives off a vibe of arrogant naivety.
He's a textbook trader.. just some nerd that listened to the lecturer and believes it's the word of God.. this is why formal education is such garbage😂😂😂
0:42 so basically he give a fake definition of technical analyzis just to make a garbage video without even knowing that the point of it is to get better entry and not predicting.
By calling the entire TA garbage just to prove a point about scammers selling it is ignorant. TA is simply a statistical tool (MATH) to get odds in your favor. Any good TAnalyst will tell you that it is no holy grail. TA also respects the random walk theory and also any other theories out there. TA is not just about historical price movements to predict future movements, pattern recognition, etc like this guy claiming. It is understanding what other investors/traders are also doing currently. It is also a measurement of exuberance, fear, and greed in the market. There is a reason why this guy is a RUclipsr(no different than others selling TA services) and successful traders are simply traders. Skilled traders do not need any services; these services are made for the lazy ones. Think! TA works, Quant works, Fundamental works, Buy-n-hold works, etc. You will find everyone in a different school of thought that has been successful based on their individual personality and lifestyle. Do not be ignorant like this guy.
I agree, he is really talking shit :))
he's not even mentioning probability.
Did you ever calculate odds to smth happen based on TA indicator? If you claim that's just statistical tool, did you prove it anyhow?
@@ThaRealiestJEDI can you repeat this question in proper English so I can respond appropriately?
@@magicsaint yes sure. Did you prove that any technical analysis indicator is statistically significant in terms of price predictions?
Lol why do all young beginner Quants think they are gods gift to earth? Lmao. This guy is overreaching on alot of points here.
The pro poker players dont know and opponents cards and they are discovering the board cards in the hand developement. However, some are on the top for years. It's a probabilistic game. Not all the patterns are confiable, and the indicators are bullshit, but the markets moves in zones, zones is equal to horizontal supports and resistences, including liquidity pools. If you could read the price action with a fractal view and a good risk management, you put the odds in favor to you, as a result, profitable. Allways we will have the uncertity, in the markets and in life. Cheers.
What is fractal view?
@@hellomate6079 patterns that repeat at a different point in time and at maybe different scale
You are way spiteful toward us technical traders. Fundamentals, economics, price levels and then we use a number of indicators even candle sticks patterns help us. Anyone with one indicator wont make it a week
Sat here listening him talk about fundamentals whilst trading crypto... huh
Better watch them Bitcoin fundamentals ;)
What I find interesting about TA, is that in the short term if everyone concludes that a stock has a particular trend (like up), then that will create buying pressure and momentum. So it's not entirely true to say that past price has no effect, because if enough people believe it does they will trade off that and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Having said that, it can turn on a dime so maybe there is an element of randomness too. My hunch is that Ito calculus is a better mathematical model for price movements that something purely stochastic
U don’t know what r saying….do u????
@@bennya2846 enlighten
Isn't Ito calculus part of the stochastic differential equations field? I'm studying math now but I'm not at that point yet
The "establishment" is moving away from strictly Gausian distribution in their calculus and starting to look at price action as a power law distribution. The Gaussian distribution assumption is 'good enough to cut the mustard' most of the time, but its most serious flaw is it underestimates risk.
the trick is identifying how big the dime that it turns on will be, so you can recognize it when its happening
Hey CJ,
I get your points. A lot of quant trading is overfitting on past data and finding patterns in randomness.
Just one question, if price is 100% random, then why can it still be statistically differentiated from a random walk?
Think about the ADF test, Hurst exponent and variance ratio test.
I am fairly new to the world of quant finance.
There ya go. Takedown in one move. You should have a channel, not CJ.
@@thomasscoville1148 ONE MOVE MATE!! lol
ADF has low power
@@michaeljankowski4627 Im honestly still very new to it and still wondering. It wasn't my intention to "takedown" anyone.
It’s because it’s not 100% random and TA has its place in trading
Crypto investor here. I can tell you some of these tech analysts do look at several indicators at once, not just one. They also look at many other factors at play outside of the charts, the market dynamics, macro economics, business fundamentals, and even the psychology behind investing trends. Not saying I would pay $700 for a Tech analysis course, but if someone has made 10 to 20 times more money than me investing, I sit back and listen.
It’s all probability and when they get it right, it’s a confirmation bias.
@@HAGA7793 It's all about predicting the most likely scenario of course.
"X is random, hence one cannot predict X."
This is just categorically wrong, in every aspect. It's what one would expect to hear from somebody who has never seen a distribution function.
The weather is random.
Y(x)=ax+N, where N is random, normal-distributed noise, is random.
A football match played between a professional A-league team and its fan club is random.
The number of lottery winners for any given year is random.
The introduction of randomness into a system does not render the system entirely opaque to analysis. You ought to know better than to utter such silliness.
Hopefully, you traders see the flaw in his argument. 3:40 He stated clearly that he "knows" price action is random. In 4:59 he also stated that he understood that price is subjective (meaning price action is based on the observer). At 2:40 He also states that people are hard-wired for pattern recognition. At this point you should see why the opinion in this video is flawed. Value (price) is based on the observer. We are social observers (group observers) hard-wired to recognize patterns. What appears to be randomness in price movement is actually a product of the competing intentions of social observers. Various groupings of social observers define price movement. The intentions of those observers with the most strength (volume and/or capital) will dominate price movement. Herd recognition and response to these movements creates more pronounced patterns. Based on group pattern recognition, the direction and duration of short term price movement can be reliably predicted with an accuracy above 60%.
Your whole argument becomes false when you realize
@@p3nx1lz91 Clarity... All market participants recognize patterns (institutional, retail, etc). Fundamental analysis is just as much pattern recognition as technical analysis. All value is inherently subjective.
@@shonsavesclaims_1 well institutions don’t use TA, they have mathematical models backed by a lot of data by which they make decisions. Also fundamental analysis is backed by logic unlike technical analysis. Maybe technical works if a trade is executed within minutes idk. I’m not against technical analysis just have some doubts of its workings. Hopefully I find data which proves or disproves TA.
@@p3nx1lz91 Look up supply and demand zone trading.... 100% based on TA/chart analysis and is one of the most reliable day/swing trading signals. Also, if you think institutions don't use TA.... well, that's just ignorant. What you're saying is that institutions don't care about price. Obviously that's absurd: institutions are much better at managing risk than retail investors... so in that sense, algos very much rely on TA/price analysis. It's easy for people to pretend they understand the stock market. But really, anyone who claims with such certainty to understand it, really doesn't know that much....🙄
@@ScottAllenFinance hmm thanks for your input
The comments are filled with cognitive dissonance and people scared to come to the reality that you can’t make money by doing nothing. Your charts will never predict an earnings fallout or bad news coming out.
The point of of technical analysis to have a idea of where traders/institutions/etc believe a product is oversold or overbought. No system is fool proof. But technical analysis, with good understanding of fundamentals, a proper outlook and experience increases a trader's edge.
Thank you for you post,
Happy trading.
At the very least, TA is excellent for revealing where the herd mentality of the markets are! Because so many market participants are believers in TA, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy and can absolutely be used as a predictive measure of markets. I personally have multiple strategies that seek to capitalize on the sheep trading solely from technical patterns and they've been working well!
Yes their stops are definitely targeted
You wrote this 1 year ago, where are you now? Working in McDonalds?
@@criptochango9472😂😂😂
I dont know what people smoke to see hammers, tea cups, head & shoulders in the price movement.
I think I see the big dipper
🤣🤣🤣
Ever heard of Al Brooks. Go check it out. You will understand why hammers , tea cups and head & shoulders matter and why it doesn't matter. Technical analysis is but a small component of successful discretionary day-trading. If it was such a big factor, everyone would be shitting money and experience wouldn't matter. Yes, there are cringe content creators packaging pattern recognition as a course, but you would be naive at best to believe it is the holy grail for success in day-trading industry.
Cup and handle work wonders, I used it in 3 of my trades this week, All of them turned out to be successful. My mentor sometime uses head & shoulder at 1min timeframe in Future indexs. He makes roughly around $500 per trade. His monthly accuracy is roughly around 85%.
Just bc you dont know how to use these patterns doesnt mean it's rubbish
THE SECRET OF THE FUTURE IS HIDDEN IN YOUR DAILY ROUTINE. CRYPTO AND FOREX TRADING IS THE FUTURE.
You are right but the market is profiting if you are using really a good broker or account manager to help out with trades or provide signals
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Price comes from what the insiders know before you do. Case closed.
As a trader, your statement "...prices follow a trend if you believe prices are not random, prices are indeed random." is a yes and no. Prices are indeed random, its the individuals who partake in the markets that make it "not random". We as traders look in the past to identify places where more people agreed that prices are a good price. We as humans implement fear and greed onto the charts in other words supply and demand. As a trader, I identify those areas and assume based on past history that these areas will play a role in the future. That's all it is. Yes prices are random, but the people trading the markets have patterns that we can clearly take advantage of.