Regarding the clubs, I had been taught "8 ever, 9 never" when deciding whether or not to try a finesse for a queen. That if you have 9 (or more) cards then the odds are better playing for a drop rather than playing the finesse. Is there a reason that you called that way of playing this hand incorrect?
This is a fantastic question! Thank you for asking. You are correct, the odds of playing for the drop are higher with 9 than the finesse (missing the queen). If there are no other factors in the decision (to finesse or not to finesse), then going by the percentages is absolutely the best way to go. But, the percentage difference between the chance of success of the drop and the chance of success of the finesse is small. So if there are other factors (who you can lose the lead to, some kind of count on the hand from the auction or subsequent play, transportation, control, etc.) it's better to adjust the plan with those factors in mind. In this case, because we have 10, we can take a line of play that gives us the maximum chance to not lose a club trick. Since there are only 3 clubs outstanding, if we play the king first (before anything else), we will get a complete picture of the suit. If the clubs are 2-1, we don't need to finesse. If the clubs are 3-0, we know where the queen is. Why the king and not the ace? Because if East has the QT3, we can pick it up with a finesse. When we play the king, if West shows out, we have a marked finesse (we know it's working) on East. If West has the QT3, there was never anything we could do about that. Playing the king tells us exactly what's going on and allows us to succeed even if East has the QT3. Whereas if we start with the ace, we only can succeed if the clubs are 2-1, because we've lost the ability to finesse East and never could finesse West. So it's not so much that I am saying that you should finesse or not finesse. I'm saying, think about the possible distributions of the suit and play it in a way that gives you the maximum chance of success. In this case, playing the king first will tell you exactly what's going on and allow you to succeed in every possible scenario except when West has all three clubs. And if West has all three clubs, there was never anything we could do about that.
Brilliant, thanks so much
Thank you!
Very nice explanations, as usual. Thank you.
Thank you!
Underbid. 6C is a very good contract. 3NT should show a maximum of 15 points, you have 16.
Regarding the clubs, I had been taught "8 ever, 9 never" when deciding whether or not to try a finesse for a queen. That if you have 9 (or more) cards then the odds are better playing for a drop rather than playing the finesse. Is there a reason that you called that way of playing this hand incorrect?
This is a fantastic question! Thank you for asking. You are correct, the odds of playing for the drop are higher with 9 than the finesse (missing the queen). If there are no other factors in the decision (to finesse or not to finesse), then going by the percentages is absolutely the best way to go. But, the percentage difference between the chance of success of the drop and the chance of success of the finesse is small. So if there are other factors (who you can lose the lead to, some kind of count on the hand from the auction or subsequent play, transportation, control, etc.) it's better to adjust the plan with those factors in mind.
In this case, because we have 10, we can take a line of play that gives us the maximum chance to not lose a club trick. Since there are only 3 clubs outstanding, if we play the king first (before anything else), we will get a complete picture of the suit. If the clubs are 2-1, we don't need to finesse. If the clubs are 3-0, we know where the queen is. Why the king and not the ace? Because if East has the QT3, we can pick it up with a finesse. When we play the king, if West shows out, we have a marked finesse (we know it's working) on East. If West has the QT3, there was never anything we could do about that. Playing the king tells us exactly what's going on and allows us to succeed even if East has the QT3. Whereas if we start with the ace, we only can succeed if the clubs are 2-1, because we've lost the ability to finesse East and never could finesse West.
So it's not so much that I am saying that you should finesse or not finesse. I'm saying, think about the possible distributions of the suit and play it in a way that gives you the maximum chance of success. In this case, playing the king first will tell you exactly what's going on and allow you to succeed in every possible scenario except when West has all three clubs. And if West has all three clubs, there was never anything we could do about that.
Understood your explanation. TU
Thank you for watching!
6C is cold unless West holds Q10x , an 11% chance. 3NT is pretty pathetic. I suggest: 1C-1H-1NT -6C , or a similar auction...