If only the USA stuck to sacred principle of the world trusting their promise on the dollar, this wouldn't have happened. When you break that trust & start seizing these assets of others, it's natural for the rest to start running ! What did the ones that made that decision expect ??
China has slowed the pace of de-risking. They bought / re-bought about $75 billion USD Treasuries that would otherwise have expired. That is, China was on course to holding less than $700 billion USD by end of year, but they're closer to $775 billion today.
I sometimes think this is all a game with our leaders, be cause things don't add up, we say we want to fight against China but then we are bending over for them to whack us on the butt
@@ZweiZwolf It’s the right amount to be dumped and cause a crash But the Chinese would be better served to hold onto that Sovereign debt and wait for a default piggy back off American class action lawsuits and tie up the USA in American courts for years and years
China has given dollar loan to Argentina which is paying back with agriculture products. US will not see these dollars coming back directly from China. Basically China tried to avoid buy US debt or property in order to avoid irritating US politics. Kind of de-risking.
@@alexoolau Yes, and this is largely how China's Belt & Road infrastructure loans go. China lends USD to a developing country to build infrastructure that enhances the economy - something that the IMF and World Bank consistently refuse to do. Everybody knows the loan cannot be repaid in Dollars for a very long time, so it is understood that the payment will be as barter, typically natural resources, as those are the only things they have to provide. As a result, China guarantees decades of stable resources, while their BRI countries gain new infrastructure and guaranteed trade at fair prices. The side effect is that the West is much less able to exploit BRI countries when they can get a fair price.
They will reduce their holdings of US treasuries, however on their terms. There are reasons then need to hold some as well as based on when they mature. That said, China is holding more gold then anyone understands. Some predictions are 2-5 times that of what the US "claims" to have which is about 40,000 tons. Most likely will announce when the time is right.
@@gwt123 China is probably hiding more than 800 billion 👇 China is hiding $3 trillion of foreign currency in 'shadow reserves,' adding unknown risks to the global economy, former Treasury official says Filip De Mott Jun 30, 2023 Half of China's currency reserves are "hidden," a situation that may add risks to the global economy down the road, former Treasury Department official Brad Setser wrote. While the country's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported $3.12 trillion in foreign assets last December, Setser estimates that foreign exchange reserves actually sit at around $6 trillion. "China is so big that how it manages its economy and currency matters enormously to the world," he wrote in The China Project. "Yet over time the way it manages its currency and its foreign exchange reserves has become much less transparent - creating new kinds of risks for the global economy." A key indicator about China's reserves is a sudden pause in its reported activity. From 2002 to 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves steadily rose as the central bank bought US dollar assets to prevent China's yuan from appreciating too much, allowing exports to remain cheap. But over the last 10 years, China's reserves stopped rising, which is puzzling as China's trade surplus has continued growing, and currently stands at an all-time high, he said. BI
@@gwt123 China’s Gold Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy JANUARY 9, 2024 Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds. If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets. OxfordGoldGroup
@@gwt123there is also this 👇 How Much Money Does the World Owe China? Our research, based on a comprehensive new data set, shows that China has extended many more loans to developing countries than previously known. This systematic underreporting of Chinese loans has created a “hidden debt” problem - meaning that debtor countries and international institutions alike have an incomplete picture on how much countries around the world owe to China and under which conditions. In total, the Chinese state and its subsidiaries have lent about $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150 countries around the globe. This has turned China into the world’s largest official creditor - surpassing traditional, official lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments combined. Despite the large size of China’s overseas lending boom, no official data exists on the resulting debt flows and stocks. China does not report on its international lending, and Chinese loans literally fall through the cracks of traditional data-gathering institutions. For example, credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s, or data providers, such as Bloomberg, focus on private creditors, but China’s lending is state sponsored, and therefore off their radar screen. Debtor countries themselves often do not collect data on debt owed by state-owned companies, which are the main recipients of Chinese loans. In addition, China is not a member of the Paris Club (an informal group of creditor nations) or the OECD, both of which collect data on lending by official creditors. HarvardBusinessReview
The root causes problem for China itself is she can't buy everything she needs with huge amount of USD she owned these days due to US abruptly impose sanctioned on National Security ground
The day US rich will start moving their wealth abroad US officials will make new laws in days to avoid capital run outside US. Freedom? Yes, but only in limits and only for certain not all
Literally, US has no imposed restrictions however she does keep track on every transaction and worst part was US abruptly impose sanctioned on some products buying spree with USD currency wise on the basic of national security risk
Duh!! As China moves money out of the US the US will need someone else to buy those bonds. China is also hiding money to prepare for a US imposed sanctions.
Yeah right. Just look at their airshow recently. That is a shitload of sabre-rattling to the rest of the world. They need to be accountable to the rest of the world.
China loves our dollars is just reverse psychology. He's paid to say that, hoping to brainwash into thinking if China loves the dollars, other countries should love it too! The question is, would anyone want a USD100 which was printed with a value of 0.17 cents and not back by gold?
After ceasing the Afghanistan's reserves and Russian reserves in US banks . The US should expect others to not trust them and withdraw the money from US banks .
This was an an extremely short-sighted and arrogant move by Western politicians, especially Biden, Blinken, and Yellen, but the UK and EU big wigs as well.
It’s probably more than that 700/800 billion 👇 China is hiding $3 trillion of foreign currency in 'shadow reserves,' adding unknown risks to the global economy, former Treasury official says Filip De Mott Jun 30, 2023 Half of China's currency reserves are "hidden," a situation that may add risks to the global economy down the road, former Treasury Department official Brad Setser wrote. While the country's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported $3.12 trillion in foreign assets last December, Setser estimates that foreign exchange reserves actually sit at around $6 trillion. "China is so big that how it manages its economy and currency matters enormously to the world," he wrote in The China Project. "Yet over time the way it manages its currency and its foreign exchange reserves has become much less transparent - creating new kinds of risks for the global economy." A key indicator about China's reserves is a sudden pause in its reported activity. From 2002 to 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves steadily rose as the central bank bought US dollar assets to prevent China's yuan from appreciating too much, allowing exports to remain cheap. But over the last 10 years, China's reserves stopped rising, which is puzzling as China's trade surplus has continued growing, and currently stands at an all-time high, he said. BI
It is impossible to repatriate dollars unless it is cash. Dollars issued by the central bank are only held at the central bank and other banks only refer to the dollars they hold at the central bank. The only options are to offset payables and receivables in dollars when no dollars are transferred or to use gold or other currencies. But China has chosen to spend the dollars on investments in other countries before they are devalued or confiscated.
Dollars are constantly losing their value, but that's not problem unless you keep them in your reserve. They used to buy Treasuries to get interest enough to compensate for that, but that option isn't so good anymore. Investing or lending them out are viable options. But it's risky for China and the Chinese to invest in the USA, as we all know. Somehow the Americans don't care about the consequences of their politics. They never think about what others do as a response to them! If they want investments in the USA and good relations they have to change. Oh, I ment change for the better. They have actually changed a a lot the last decade 🙂
@@larsnystrom6698do not underestimate the US finance sector. When tied to the US government as it is today, the famous “asset stripping jackals” become even more powerful.
@@larsnystrom6698 2/3rd of Americans rushed to the election booth citing the economy, inflation, cost of living as being the top reason for their vote Not even thinking that maybe tariffs on China and sanctions against Russia would affect them As they vote in trump who promises to raise tariffs even more And push their average cost from 500 per year to 2600 per year
Not just gold, but every type of commodities, and taking them back. China is, in effect, flipping the colonial model by turning the West into consumers of Chinese finished goods in exchange for commodities.
It's no longer your dollar, once you exchange it for something, what the recipient does with it afterwards is none of yours or anybody else's business.
they know us but they can’t fully grasp the level of psychopathy that is the messianic ideology - the US thinks it’s fighting the crusades but didn’t study the Persian empire or they’d know 3 days wasn’t enough to brief them on these centuries / they prefer the Greeks/Romans which they don’t even really understand after so much rewriting of anglo saxon history we don’t know anything about China except through our own lens which is highly biased
@@mengreat6982"Sun Tze" is what you guys know, and there are many more even mightier strategists that the Chinese are learning from, that none of you guys know about
I believe thats one of the reasons why the trade war stared and its getting out of hand. USA, just can't control the chineses as it did with Japan and others... Chinses are toooo smart for that.. By the way, as always, great video...
Just fantastic to bee able to watch your videos for free. So educational and well presented. Thank you for your effort to educate the masses! Cheers from Sweden!
5000 years old of ancient civilizations, it has many large and famous empire Kingdom run back & forth back then however it's Qin Shi Huang kingdom era which had fought numerous W'ar & united what is current China like today
@@CA999 , Just because the people in Flint, Michigan were forced to take poisoned water from their tap day in and day out since more than a decade ago and still they are as of this day, it doesn't make your unfounded allegation against other country valid. Also, speaking of environmental and ecological, go check the Hudson River, to see how poisonous it gets now since PBS reported on its being toxic river more than 2 decades ago.
There is a much deeper and much more sinister game at play that nobody dares to talk about on RUclips because the content would immediately be demonetized or even banned.
Can anyone answer a complicated question? If China is producing too much and needs to throttle down, why US can print as many US$ as they wish? Isn't that more destabilising the world economy as compared to Chinese products?
@ that is one answer but it leads to more questions. And we are not talking about dollars printed by CIA (plates taken from Iran), only those printed by Federal Reserve
Maybe a bit of counterweight for the overly dramatic title. USA has weaponized the dollar through confiscation and freezing in 2022, a major "point of no return". So what do you expect? It is very normal to start unwinding all positions at USA led financial institutions. Any 1st grade economy student would advise that. Buying USA debt paper or buying fixed assets is the most foolish thing to do post-2022, if you are not a permanent member of the club of G7. There is no questions raised or lack of information on the unreturned USD reserves: it is plain simple what happens. The best you can do is that you securitize the dollar reserve yourself with your trade partners, making it liquid via a back-to-back exchange rate. Again, this is a normal thing to protect yourself from USA cutting you off at will at any moment in the future. It is logical and cautious to do so. Therefore i find the suggestion that China is hiding, or doing something shady, not justified and i disagree with this negative framing in this video. Look at the chip tech sanctions- a perfect example how fast things can be cut off, and how hurtful that is to the economy. USA is very smart not to cut off ALL chip benefits from companies in taiwan like TSMC, ONLY the advanced chips.....why? Otherwise taiwan has no added value any more for China, and a quick reunification is gonna follow, hurting USA chips production/delivery. That is the main reason why usa forces taiwan to reproduce their fabs in USA territory. USA is buying time to build fabs, and China needs also time, to get to the point of no use any more of taiwan chips: this is the real race that is ongoing behind the scene. In simple terms: USA is taking away toys from China, but be careful, because China could also make that USA gets no toys :) be good ;)
I enjoy these current, informative, and value-added world-view briefings, which are a welcomed change from other RUclips content that merely competes for one's time. Great job on the format; you really own your niche.
Endless printing machine, printing dollars out of thin air, while rest of the world hustles to make ends meet, that era is over. The sooner you realise it, the better. All other analysis like this one, is a waste of time honestly.
A French politician who was at the head of the IMF had plans to set up a new system. But in 2011 he got caught up in a s@x scandal, so the project got cancelled...
Agree. Absolutely correct strategic direction for China to improve energy security and dependencies, and transform its cost effectiveness and mega capacity for AI, high energy industries. Truly smart strategic planners.
Thank you very much. I learned so much from your post. I think so many people fail to realize that China and the CPC are so doing so much more than managing financial, fiscal and political affairs. They’re planning ahead for 5, 10, 15+ years for the future generations, and, most importantly, actually following through. And they achieve this despite all the anti-China propaganda and obstacles that the western governments place in front of them. What other country on this planet has achieved this? I’m always impressed with China and the Chinese people.
Glad to see U$D doing some good around the world with building massive ports such as in Peru, trains in Hungary & so much more. First time maybe ever that the U$D has been used so beneficially for others. It's none of U$a's business where these dollars "are" nor where they are going. De-dollarization can take many forms.
What you are saying, Kevin, would be valid if ALL of China's foreign trade was conducted in USD. To the best of my knowledge, about half of China's exports are now received in Yuans. This makes it very simple for China to get rid of ALL its dollars. All China has to do is to use ALL dollars generated from their exports AND sales of treasury bills to pay for PART of their imports (roughly half of total imports). I stress the word PART. In fact, the USDs generated from trade surplus and treasury bill sales are NOT enough to pay for China's imports. I repeat: THE DOLLARS FROM TRADE SURPLUS AND SALE OF TREASURY BILLS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO PAY FOR ALL OF CHINA'S IMPORTS. I want to emphasize that only half of their exports are received in dollars, the other half in yuans. Thanks to their exports in yuans, it is very easy for China to get rid NOT ONLY OF THE TRADE SURPLUS, but also of the dollar proceeds originated from the sale of their treasuries. That gap you show in the graph is nothing else but the payments received in yuans. They first get rid of all those USDs to pay for imports. Once all the dollars received from trade balances and from sale of treasuries are spent, THEN AND ONLY THEN they start paying in yuan. Easy peasy. No misteries. They will soon have gotten rid of all their USDs. The net effect is that the US is bleeding from trade deficits with China, paying obviously in USDs, but China is not adding a single dollar to its reserves. They send them, immediately upon receipt, to countries all over the world to pay for imports from those countries, who are not too vulnerable to having their USDs stolen from them. Some selected countries are paid in yuan, AFTER all the USDs have been spent and gotten rid of.
I don't think they are "hiding" as in saving them up somewhere. It's just unreported and hidden from our view. Likely, it is use as US denominated loan to Global South nation to repay IMF loans or FDI in those countries, thereby gradually freeing other countries from U$ dominance, thus enhancing their hand.
Excellent on point analysis. Paying for imports in US dollars, making investments in other countries in US dollars and buying gold in US dollars. No magic and no mystery.
@@basilfoster3107 All current loans will be made in yuans. China wants to get rid of ALL dollar denominated assets. But there is no need to complicate things: just get rid of them paying for the imports expressed in dollars. If you add the gold purchases, that's an over kill.
@@marcc1830 They are neither hiding nor saving: they are simply using those dollars to pay for part of their imports. Nothing more complicated than this.
I supposed the US don't fudge the figures at all. We used love Americans as well back in the days! But we are just not that into y'all anymore. The problem It's y'all, not us that! The relationship has gotten just too abusive verbally & mentally. We hope that it won't become physical in the future.
I love the grounded reality of this channel!!! *If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you..prevent inflation.*
I feel sympathy and empathy for our country, low income earners are suffering to survive, and I appreciate Wayne. You've helped my family with your advice. imagine investing $30,000 and receiving $95,460 after 28 days of trading.
Did someone just mention Mr Wayne!? Damn! You just made my day; what a coincidence.. I've worked with him for over 2years and I can tell how good he is
If you are not in the financial market right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation
Trading crypto now should be wise, but trading without an expert isn't advisable. I tried trading on my own but keep on losing. I think I'Il give her a try
I watch an analyst that has been saying China would dump their dollar stocks and US treasury bonds to decouple from the dangerous yankee financial system since as early as mid-2022 at the latest. Glad to see he was right.
I disgree with Kevin's analysis. The difference between custom's import/export and SAFE numbers is a typical problem in countries in Asia (you can check the same numbers in Taiwan for example). The reason is simple: custom's stats are typically from value reported by the companies, which do not tell how the money flows. so a company may ship a boat of merchandise to US but ask the payment be sent to a bank in UK. SAFE is only counting the money on hand. actually, a more interesting question is: China had a FX reserve about 3 trillion dollars 5 years ago, and still has the same amount today, despite of having almost 4 trillion dollars trade surplus in 5 years. where did the 4 trillion dollars trade surplus go? 😊😊😊😊😊
Totally wrong. It is not your dollars, they belong to the owner. Just by saying so makes a strong point, why it is to risky to have assets within the Western Hegemony. Their regimes are not following International Law. Also, That balance. Each country is responsible for its own. If the US wants to have it on a bilateral way, then just do it. Import less from that country in imbalance. Or even better, start to export gods with value.
Kevin, your analysis only works if all imports and exports are in USD. But that's not the case in China. They no longer have a huge USD surplus because a large and growing percent of sales receipts are in Yuan and other currencies. I think that might explain the "missing" $700 billion.
The Chinese are learning to love gold even more than they love USD. As gold continues to gain in value compared with the USD, the benefit of holding gold continues to increase. The USD is still superior to gold as a medium of exchange, however, that could change if the BRICS central banks create a gold backed currency as a medium of exchange between BRICS central banks.
BRICS won't create a global BRICS currency because it's not in their interest to do so. China, India, and Russia each have very different needs and tolerance for supporting a global currency over their domestic currency. Technically speaking, China doesn't even need to back the Yuan with gold, because the CNY is backed by Chinese factories. That is, any holder of CNY can immediately convert to containers of finished goods. Same with Russia, where holders of Rubles simply convert to natural gas or foodstuffs. They don't need to convert to gold. The countries who should be looking at gold-backed currencies are African, Central Asian, etc. They should be establishing a common currency and monetary union in their own self interest, rather than paying seigniorage to the US or France.
Finance is my weak spot If the US imports from China and we pay China with a dollar we just printed And if China never comes to the U.S. to use that dollar, then it looks like the US is swapping paper money for actual goods, not needing to provide anything more valuable that a piece of printed paper
The problem is that a country currency is basically an IOU that is immediatly due. Each dollar our treasury print out will make the paper money in our wallet worth less in purchasing power. If China put that printed dollar we paid them back in our economy like they always had before our government went ballistic in weaponizing OUR dollar, then there is not any serious problem because that purchasing power basically come back, we are kind of just borrowing from our future. Now if they hide it by lending it to other nations so that they can build bridges and ports then in essence WE the people raise a loan to build bridges or a ports in those places. The purchasing power did not come back. And we shall pay for it with the devaluation of the purchasing power of the "benjamins" in our wallet. Now, it's just not a problem with China, we are just focus on China because that's what our dear leaders are pointing us to. Everyone else is doing it in some form or other now that they see us confiscating other people reserve. And that is the price of being the global reserve. Everyone on the planet will hold dollar (aka. an IOU that is due immediately due, issued by WE the people).
@@isFrror Neither. It is like fire. You can warm yourself with it or you let it burn you. It is like water that can nourish our field or drown our homes. Since you type in Chinese, I assume you are Chinese. So in your heart, you already know this. US could have manage the borrowed liquidity better and channel that into something that benefit "We the people" more equally like lowering health care cost but we have a health industry lobby to stop that. Or build infrastruture and invest in the future of "we the people". Heavily subsidize university education to invest the future of "WE the people". But we have Wall Street lobby that package what amount to blowing up values of assets they pay dirt for and call that investment. When things doesn't work out ( how could it?), as the benefit of the reserve privilege create a vast wealth gap. We have Military Industrial Complex telling us everyone else on the planet is plotting against us and we need to build 800+ military base to put everyone in its place by starting wars and revolution everywhere. Then we do have everyone plotting against us. Self fulfilling prophecy. China, India, Indonesia, and Africa, be smarter, be better, remember these lesson from "We the People". Sigh.
@isFrror yes and no. China don't like there money to be used, they need to control it. The interest rate. Because they export alot but if they were like us financial export. It's good
why would they keep the dollar when it is losing its value as the us debt goes higher, especially when they will be coming out with an alternative BRICs currency.
China have been doing this for many many years....set up BRICS and the NDBC under obutthead....stole intellectual tech property via silicon valley...etc etc Trump just wants America to be independent of any future foreign control.
The terminology is wrong. It is the capital account that usually doesn't have much action, and the financial account that is full of activity. It used to be that the capital and financial accounts were just one single account called the capital account. But there was a change in terminology and the two were split. From the IMF: "The capital account covers all transactions that involve the receipt or payment of capital transfers and acquisition or disposal of nonproduced, nonfinancial assets. The financial account covers all transactions associated with changes of ownership in the foreign financial assets and liabilities of an economy."
The problem is the dollar is privately owned via the Federal reserve. So it is the US banks. There is no distinction here. Just the moving of dollars is not what the US governement wants. It is what US business people want.
Mr. Walmsley I must commend the “ RESEARCH “ you and your team ( If you have a team / group ) do in gathering facts AND presenting them them to the audience in simple, understandable language. Very well done ! Thank you.
Jai Hind. Better to use the printed paper to finance BRI projects in the Global South rather than parking in USD treasury bonds like most countries with USD trade surpluses which are then mostly used to finance more war sufferings in the Global majority countries like Russia and the Umat2.
I think that's exactly what happened to them. Dollar loan so Africa can pay back IMF. And they balance that out by buying resources, setting up factories there. If repayment is necessary, they accept a mixture of RMB or local currencies.
China loves our dollar, until we cannot hold its value. But, it is the US $. And there’s no way we can let “not hold its value” happen. So, they found a way to be on the dollar wagon and make money with the others on the same wagon. Smooth operator!
No, not necessarily. Just any place that cannot be confiscated by a rogue entity that has a bad habit of using sanctions on other countries in the world which she perceived as falling into categories she deemed as breaking so-called "rules-based order" made up by her unilaterally, and which she herself does not abide too.
Chinese don't keep their money in mattress. Back in the day, they hide it in their books literally, like between the pages. Now, I think they are doing it metaphorically 😁
Non dollar assets like agricultural land , infrastructure , mines , BRI , oil fields , stockpiles of food and raw materials etc. Anything that's worth something is better than a going to collapse dollar system that's based on unrepayable massive debt.
I think of The Dark Knight. The Joker just burns his pile of money because he only need guns, dynamite and gasoline, which are all cheap. Sometimes people eliminate money because they have greater aspirations.
Sounds like China is de- coupling faster than the US could only imagine. Does the end game mean the US is forced to print more money that ultimately will continue going to China. I'll need to watch this video a few more times. Great information and thank you.
China is "de-risking" We all know why. Where has the 700 billon USD gone? Reportedly, China has loaned its US dollars to nations hurt by the Fed's interest plays to shield them from the utter collapses that happened in previous Fed interest rate cycles. These nations can use the borrowed dollars to repay USD loans, and swapping them into RMB loans. As a result, the damage caused by the most recent Fed move is less severe this time around. I have not done research on the total size of these loans.
Why take USD for real goods and materials, when USA just prints it for nothing? This game will stop when BRICS create an alternative. The surplus USD is used to buy Gold?
Maybe it is not easy to tally that 3 accounts to zero due to the enormous size? Just like the US cannot get accurate monthly numbers for employment but always need to publish a "revised" figure almost every month.
Love this channel! I haven't seen any mainstream finance channel cover this development. It is intriguing that China isn't re-circulating its excess dollars back into treasuries and the US market.
Why China has to justify itself what they do with their money???
Especially when the chips act bans US from selling to China.
Asking the right question. Why should they be questioned?
It seem US still cannot get over their heads that there another big fellow down the street.
If only the USA stuck to sacred principle of the world trusting their promise on the dollar, this wouldn't have happened.
When you break that trust & start seizing these assets of others, it's natural for the rest to start running !
What did the ones that made that decision expect ??
@@tkh2944 they expected that the others would fall on their knees and kissing their feet.
😂😂😂you all wanted de-coupling. This is how China does de-coupling and de-risking
China has slowed the pace of de-risking. They bought / re-bought about $75 billion USD Treasuries that would otherwise have expired. That is, China was on course to holding less than $700 billion USD by end of year, but they're closer to $775 billion today.
I sometimes think this is all a game with our leaders, be cause things don't add up, we say we want to fight against China but then we are bending over for them to whack us on the butt
@@ZweiZwolf
It’s the right amount to be dumped and cause a crash
But the Chinese would be better served to hold onto that Sovereign debt and wait for a default
piggy back off American class action lawsuits and tie up the USA in American courts for years and years
China has given dollar loan to Argentina which is paying back with agriculture products. US will not see these dollars coming back directly from China. Basically China tried to avoid buy US debt or property in order to avoid irritating US politics. Kind of de-risking.
@@alexoolau Yes, and this is largely how China's Belt & Road infrastructure loans go. China lends USD to a developing country to build infrastructure that enhances the economy - something that the IMF and World Bank consistently refuse to do. Everybody knows the loan cannot be repaid in Dollars for a very long time, so it is understood that the payment will be as barter, typically natural resources, as those are the only things they have to provide. As a result, China guarantees decades of stable resources, while their BRI countries gain new infrastructure and guaranteed trade at fair prices. The side effect is that the West is much less able to exploit BRI countries when they can get a fair price.
Why would China want to keep their dollars in the US and risk having it confiscated? If I had dollars there, I'd take it out too.
De-risking
They will reduce their holdings of US treasuries, however on their terms. There are reasons then need to hold some as well as based on when they mature. That said, China is holding more gold then anyone understands. Some predictions are 2-5 times that of what the US "claims" to have which is about 40,000 tons. Most likely will announce when the time is right.
@@gwt123
China is probably hiding more than 800 billion
👇
China is hiding $3 trillion of foreign currency in 'shadow reserves,' adding unknown risks to the global economy, former Treasury official says
Filip De Mott Jun 30, 2023
Half of China's currency reserves are "hidden," a situation that may add risks to the global economy down the road, former Treasury Department official Brad Setser wrote.
While the country's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported $3.12 trillion in foreign assets last December, Setser estimates that foreign exchange reserves actually sit at around $6 trillion.
"China is so big that how it manages its economy and currency matters enormously to the world," he wrote in The China Project. "Yet over time the way it manages its currency and its foreign exchange reserves has become much less transparent - creating new kinds of risks for the global economy."
A key indicator about China's reserves is a sudden pause in its reported activity. From 2002 to 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves steadily rose as the central bank bought US dollar assets to prevent China's yuan from appreciating too much, allowing exports to remain cheap.
But over the last 10 years, China's reserves stopped rising, which is puzzling as China's trade surplus has continued growing, and currently stands at an all-time high, he said.
BI
@@gwt123
China’s Gold Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy
JANUARY 9, 2024
Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds.
If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets.
OxfordGoldGroup
@@gwt123there is also this
👇
How Much Money Does the World Owe China?
Our research, based on a comprehensive new data set, shows that China has extended many more loans to developing countries than previously known. This systematic underreporting of Chinese loans has created a “hidden debt” problem - meaning that debtor countries and international institutions alike have an incomplete picture on how much countries around the world owe to China and under which conditions.
In total, the Chinese state and its subsidiaries have lent about $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150 countries around the globe. This has turned China into the world’s largest official creditor - surpassing traditional, official lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments combined.
Despite the large size of China’s overseas lending boom, no official data exists on the resulting debt flows and stocks. China does not report on its international lending, and Chinese loans literally fall through the cracks of traditional data-gathering institutions. For example, credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s, or data providers, such as Bloomberg, focus on private creditors, but China’s lending is state sponsored, and therefore off their radar screen. Debtor countries themselves often do not collect data on debt owed by state-owned companies, which are the main recipients of Chinese loans. In addition, China is not a member of the Paris Club (an informal group of creditor nations) or the OECD, both of which collect data on lending by official creditors.
HarvardBusinessReview
If I'm being bullied at school, I do my best to avoid the bully at school and I won't tell the bully where I'll be.
But then you hoard your bully's mail letters and don't want to tell what you're doing with them? 👀
@@qbek_san The bully must be weakened.
I'm in the US (the bully). He's bullying people here too (middle class, working poor, the "deplorables", ...).
@@Chubbchubb2313 You have the power of the vote.
Countries are sovereign, freedom to spend, save, or hide.
not yet it aint...hopefully soon when the SWIFT alternative materialises if ever
@@ANON-y8c👀🤔😆
The root causes problem for China itself is she can't buy everything she needs with huge amount of USD she owned these days due to US abruptly impose sanctioned on National Security ground
@@ANON-y8cprey harder 😂
The day US rich will start moving their wealth abroad US officials will make new laws in days to avoid capital run outside US. Freedom? Yes, but only in limits and only for certain not all
I think I'm entitled to do whatever with the money that I earned. I owe nobody an explanation.
Literally, US has no imposed restrictions however she does keep track on every transaction and worst part was US abruptly impose sanctioned on some products buying spree with USD currency wise on the basic of national security risk
It's not about "owing an explanation", for everyone watching the situation, it's about trying to understand what's happening
@@BritishBungler- none of Anglo Saxon lowlife species business
and then the IRS showed up.
You bought the goods. You paid the money. The deal is done. Why do you care about the Missing Money?
So true
Because the -- controls the international financial system duh
@@sciagurrato1831Oy vey!!!🤣
Duh!! As China moves money out of the US the US will need someone else to buy those bonds. China is also hiding money to prepare for a US imposed sanctions.
Because it shows China is not, or perhaps cannot, delink
China is already decoupling!
We talk about decoupling. They get sh*t done.
CHINA is NOT the PROBLEM
Yeah right. Just look at their airshow recently. That is a shitload of sabre-rattling to the rest of the world. They need to be accountable to the rest of the world.
@@williamho1976 Nah just take a look at a world map of US military bases which illustrates how stupid your comment is.
China loves our dollars is just reverse psychology. He's paid to say that, hoping to brainwash into thinking if China loves the dollars, other countries should love it too! The question is, would anyone want a USD100 which was printed with a value of 0.17 cents and not back by gold?
@@williamho1976who else is accountable?
@@williamho1976 I didn't see any shooting at the airshow.
There is a lot of good channels on RUclips this one is among one of the best.
撈胡？老虎？嫪虎？老胡？撈戶？嘮呼？
Mumbai-Dharavi numba-1
‘There are’
Agreed wholeheartedly.
@@mandarinsolutionugh.
After ceasing the Afghanistan's reserves and Russian reserves in US banks . The US should expect others to not trust them and withdraw the money from US banks .
They also holding/seized assets of iran, venezuela, Russia, afghanistan etc..
This was an an extremely short-sighted and arrogant move by Western politicians, especially Biden, Blinken, and Yellen, but the UK and EU big wigs as well.
Let's not forget what they did to Iraqi and Libyan state assets, and how they've "privatized" everything out of Ukraine.
From western banks. US controls all western banks.
@@vulpo Plus Trump
700 billions dollar for a large country such as China is not a big amount of money.
It’s probably more than that 700/800 billion
👇
China is hiding $3 trillion of foreign currency in 'shadow reserves,' adding unknown risks to the global economy, former Treasury official says
Filip De Mott Jun 30, 2023
Half of China's currency reserves are "hidden," a situation that may add risks to the global economy down the road, former Treasury Department official Brad Setser wrote.
While the country's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported $3.12 trillion in foreign assets last December, Setser estimates that foreign exchange reserves actually sit at around $6 trillion.
"China is so big that how it manages its economy and currency matters enormously to the world," he wrote in The China Project. "Yet over time the way it manages its currency and its foreign exchange reserves has become much less transparent - creating new kinds of risks for the global economy."
A key indicator about China's reserves is a sudden pause in its reported activity. From 2002 to 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves steadily rose as the central bank bought US dollar assets to prevent China's yuan from appreciating too much, allowing exports to remain cheap.
But over the last 10 years, China's reserves stopped rising, which is puzzling as China's trade surplus has continued growing, and currently stands at an all-time high, he said.
BI
The US gets concerned about transfers of $10,000 USD not being reported. This is 70 million times larger!
@ZweiZw😂😂 yepolf
About 2 dollars per person
Facts
It is impossible to repatriate dollars unless it is cash. Dollars issued by the central bank are only held at the central bank and other banks only refer to the dollars they hold at the central bank. The only options are to offset payables and receivables in dollars when no dollars are transferred or to use gold or other currencies. But China has chosen to spend the dollars on investments in other countries before they are devalued or confiscated.
Dollars are constantly losing their value, but that's not problem unless you keep them in your reserve.
They used to buy Treasuries to get interest enough to compensate for that, but that option isn't so good anymore.
Investing or lending them out are viable options. But it's risky for China and the Chinese to invest in the USA, as we all know.
Somehow the Americans don't care about the consequences of their politics. They never think about what others do as a response to them!
If they want investments in the USA and good relations they have to change. Oh, I ment change for the better. They have actually changed a a lot the last decade 🙂
Or Gold, Silver etc.
@@larsnystrom6698do not underestimate the US finance sector. When tied to the US government as it is today, the famous “asset stripping jackals” become even more powerful.
@@larsnystrom6698
2/3rd of Americans rushed to the election booth citing the economy, inflation, cost of living as being the top reason for their vote
Not even thinking that maybe tariffs on China and sanctions against Russia would affect them
As they vote in trump who promises to raise tariffs even more
And push their average cost from 500 per year to 2600 per year
@@larsnystrom6698 The Chinese Yuan has fallen over 19% compared to the US Dollar over the last 10 years.
Remember, China is also buying gold with its dollars and brining all its gold abroad back to China.
Not just gold, but every type of commodities, and taking them back. China is, in effect, flipping the colonial model by turning the West into consumers of Chinese finished goods in exchange for commodities.
China has no gold abroad, it's all in China.
It's no longer your dollar, once you exchange it for something, what the recipient does with it afterwards is none of yours or anybody else's business.
On point
The Chinese are outsmarting US in their own game. 😂
they know us but they can’t fully grasp the level of psychopathy that is the messianic ideology - the US thinks it’s fighting the crusades but didn’t study the Persian empire or they’d know 3 days wasn’t enough to brief them on these centuries / they prefer the Greeks/Romans which they don’t even really understand after so much rewriting of anglo saxon history
we don’t know anything about China except through our own lens which is highly biased
Wisdom, strategy and tactics combination as described in Sun Tze ; the art of w'ar strategy
@@mengreat6982"Sun Tze" is what you guys know, and there are many more even mightier strategists that the Chinese are learning from, that none of you guys know about
US is not a capitalist economy it's an oligarchy where connected industries get special privilege. In other words, nepotism.
@@freetheworld2671 plutocracy maybe
Very clever move by China. I love it
Not really a clever move, when a country tyat claims to end dollar supremacy, shows the world, that he's hoarding shittons of dollars.
Why should China explain to the US regulator?
I believe thats one of the reasons why the trade war stared and its getting out of hand. USA, just can't control the chineses as it did with Japan and others... Chinses are toooo smart for that.. By the way, as always, great video...
China is too big and too connected for the US to control. Most importantly, China is sovereign, rather than occupied like Germany, Japan, and Korea.
Japanese are smart enough ... but they have the psychology of the beaten servant. They don't dare challenge the "boss" for fear of another beating. 😂
China is like creating a secondary FED outside U.S. for trading purposes.
Yup, they're quietly squeezing the Western banks behind the IMF and World Bank.
how arrogant of us to require china to explain balance of paykments data
Great post again, Kevin. Thank you. I look forward to every one. Keep 'em coming!
When the chicks come home to roost!
The US in their pompous arrogance thought they had it all figured out!
Overcapacity of USD
😂😂😂
😂😂😂
Just fantastic to bee able to watch your videos for free. So educational and well presented. Thank you for your effort to educate the masses! Cheers from Sweden!
China has so many beautiful places.
5000 years old of ancient civilizations, it has many large and famous empire Kingdom run back & forth back then however it's Qin Shi Huang kingdom era which had fought numerous W'ar & united what is current China like today
You are being presented the best parts. A billion people is having an environmental and ecological impact somewhere....
@@CA999 , Just because the people in Flint, Michigan were forced to take poisoned water from their tap day in and day out since more than a decade ago and still they are as of this day, it doesn't make your unfounded allegation against other country valid. Also, speaking of environmental and ecological, go check the Hudson River, to see how poisonous it gets now since PBS reported on its being toxic river more than 2 decades ago.
There is a much deeper and much more sinister game at play that nobody dares to talk about on RUclips because the content would immediately be demonetized or even banned.
Be afraid 😱
Techno Feudalism is scary.
Why is it sinister?
Give us a hint what it is.
Thank you for the education. 🙏
No fluff, no plugs, just plain statements backed with data.
Can anyone answer a complicated question? If China is producing too much and needs to throttle down, why US can print as many US$ as they wish? Isn't that more destabilising the world economy as compared to Chinese products?
It certainly is for U.S. citizens who are paid in dollars.
@ thanks for the answer. That’s one way to look at things I guess
The Reserve Currency answers to noone.
Our currency. Your inflation. - Unc Sam
@ that is one answer but it leads to more questions. And we are not talking about dollars printed by CIA (plates taken from Iran), only those printed by Federal Reserve
It is fact when US government and MSM says that it is so.
It's their money. That's it.
They’re buying gold and investing in commodities like minerals and mining
Maybe a bit of counterweight for the overly dramatic title.
USA has weaponized the dollar through confiscation and freezing in 2022, a major "point of no return".
So what do you expect?
It is very normal to start unwinding all positions at USA led financial institutions. Any 1st grade economy student would advise that.
Buying USA debt paper or buying fixed assets is the most foolish thing to do post-2022, if you are not a permanent member of the club of G7.
There is no questions raised or lack of information on the unreturned USD reserves: it is plain simple what happens.
The best you can do is that you securitize the dollar reserve yourself with your trade partners, making it liquid via a back-to-back exchange rate.
Again, this is a normal thing to protect yourself from USA cutting you off at will at any moment in the future. It is logical and cautious to do so.
Therefore i find the suggestion that China is hiding, or doing something shady, not justified and i disagree with this negative framing in this video.
Look at the chip tech sanctions- a perfect example how fast things can be cut off, and how hurtful that is to the economy.
USA is very smart not to cut off ALL chip benefits from companies in taiwan like TSMC, ONLY the advanced chips.....why?
Otherwise taiwan has no added value any more for China, and a quick reunification is gonna follow, hurting USA chips production/delivery.
That is the main reason why usa forces taiwan to reproduce their fabs in USA territory.
USA is buying time to build fabs, and China needs also time, to get to the point of no use any more of taiwan chips: this is the real race that is ongoing behind the scene.
In simple terms: USA is taking away toys from China, but be careful, because China could also make that USA gets no toys :)
be good ;)
you think G7 investment in the u.s. is safe? you forgot what kissinger said? 😂
I enjoy these current, informative, and value-added world-view briefings, which are a welcomed change from other RUclips content that merely competes for one's time. Great job on the format; you really own your niche.
It's like you call the CEO of McDs demanding to know where is the $8.95 you spent on buying a burger.
Lol exactly, so silly to think it's their business
You only need to explain if you are not a US entity.
@@biggychaka6780 No US business entity has to explain anything to the US govt, right?
When you frame it like that: US shows Psychopathic Behavior 😮😮😮.
Caution: patient could be VIOLENT!!!
Congratulations CHINA
Hide? Does anyone need to tell the whole world how much they have?? LOL
REEP WHAT YOU SOW AMERICA
They are converting U.S. Dollars into gold.
Endless printing machine, printing dollars out of thin air, while rest of the world hustles to make ends meet, that era is over. The sooner you realise it, the better. All other analysis like this one, is a waste of time honestly.
Most people don’t understand that money is debt. There’s no way out without monetary reform, which we never hear about from politicians.
Where the money goes? It is for China to know, for US to find out.
I'm surprised a new financial system wasn't set up decades ago.
Blockchain was new back then
You risked inviting democracy or sanctions. But now that there's an alternative, countries aren't afraid no more.
Ask Gaddafi and Sadam
A French politician who was at the head of the IMF had plans to set up a new system. But in 2011 he got caught up in a s@x scandal, so the project got cancelled...
They were. China and Russia had SWIFT alternatives working, but very few participants because the dollar hadn't been weaponized.
中国在戈壁沙漠推进大规模可再生能源项目，如太阳能、风能和沙电池，推动可持续能源发展。这些项目为长期稳定、能源安全和经济利益奠定了基础，不同于股市的短期刺激，这些投资不仅减少对石油进口的依赖，降低碳排放，还支持环境保护，并带来显著的经济回报。以下是这种战略重要的关键原因：
1. 能源安全：减少对石油进口的依赖
中国是全球最大的石油进口国，每年花费约1.5万亿美元用于石油进口。这种依赖国际能源市场的情况使中国暴露于价格波动和地缘政治风险中。仅2022年，中国在石油进口上的年支出就约为1.5万亿美元，给国家财政带来压力。在冲突或海上封锁时期，关键石油供应可能被轻易中断，威胁国家稳定。通过转向国内可再生能源，特别是在戈壁沙漠开发的太阳能和风能，中国可以显著减少这种依赖，确保稳定的能源供应。
此外，沙电池技术通过加热沙子存储多余的能量，进一步增强了能源安全。美国国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）的研究人员正在开发这一新的热能存储技术，使用廉价的二氧化硅沙子作为介质。被称为ENDURING项目的这一系统，将风能或太阳能的多余电力用于超高温加热二氧化硅沙子。加热后的沙子储存在绝缘筒仓中，需要时可用来驱动涡轮发电。单个沙电池可存储高达26,000兆瓦时（MWh）的热能，系统可根据不同需求进行扩展。
NREL的高级工程师马志文专注于长时热能存储、氢生产和太阳燃料过程的研究。他主导了基于颗粒的热存储系统的项目，并在能量存储的计算模型和实验研究方面做出了重要贡献。
ENDURING项目的研究人员马志文强调，使用二氧化硅沙子作为热存储介质是去碳化的重要一步。沙子具有高热保持和传导能力，是一种长时储能的优秀解决方案。沙电池系统不仅高度可靠、成本低、环保，还能减少对煤和天然气等化石燃料的依赖。
王兴超博士是国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）的一名研究人员，同时也是科罗拉多矿业学院的研究教员。他的研究专注于传热、热力学，以及传统和可再生能源系统。他在可再生能源的能量转换和存储方面有专长，尤其是在先进系统模型的开发上。
2. 成本效益：太阳能和风能与煤炭和石油相比
可再生能源成本逐渐低于传统化石燃料。在2022年，中国大规模太阳能发电的成本为每兆瓦时（MWh）20至30美元，而煤电成本为每MWh 60至70美元。在风力资源丰富的戈壁沙漠，风能成本也已低于石油发电。
目前，中国每年在煤炭和石油进口上的花费约为2000亿美元，加重了对化石燃料的依赖，并使经济暴露于更大风险之中。向可再生能源转型将有助于缓解这一经济负担，特别是在全球能源市场日益不稳定的情况下。
3. 宁夏的战略位置：可再生能源和人工智能的中心
靠近戈壁沙漠的宁夏有望成为可再生能源和人工智能的战略中心。这里靠近丰富的太阳能和风能资源，并具备优越的高铁连接，是管理和分配可再生能源的理想位置。该地区的工业基础也支持能源生产和AI驱动的能源管理系统。
4. 经济增长、就业创造和GDP影响
对戈壁沙漠可再生能源的投资将创造1000到1200万个工作岗位，特别是在建设、运营和维护领域。这些工作将为城市和农村地区提供高薪机会。
就业创造：在未来十年，5万亿美元的投资将产生约2000万个直接和间接工作岗位，涵盖建设、运营、维护和研究。这些工作包括可再生能源系统安装、沙电池技术、电动汽车制造，以及运输、基础设施和供应链等支持行业。
GDP增长：每年在可再生能源基础设施上的1万亿美元投资将显著提升中国的GDP。在五年内，这些投资预计将为GDP增加约5万亿美元，由可再生能源部门的产出推动。
5. 环境可持续性：减少碳排放和沙尘暴
在戈壁沙漠的大规模可再生能源开发将极大减少中国的碳排放，帮助实现2060年碳中和的目标。此外，风力发电机可作为屏障，减少北方地区沙尘暴的频率和强度，目前这些沙尘暴带来重大损失和健康成本。通过减少这些风暴，中国每年可节省数十亿美元的损失和医疗费用。
6. 电动汽车：推动清洁能源需求
随着电动汽车（EV）市场的增长，电力需求将上升。EV比汽油车更加环保且经济，因为它们依赖于清洁能源而非化石燃料。通过对可再生能源基础设施的规模化投资，中国可以满足这一增长的需求，减少对石油的依赖，进一步支持碳减排目标。
7. 沙电池：更安全、更可靠、更具成本效益的储能解决方案
沙电池通过热量存储能量，随后将其转化为电力或用于加热。一个典型的5000吨沙电池可存储约210万兆焦耳（MJ）的能量，非常适合在戈壁沙漠等沙资源丰富的地区进行长期存储。
与熔盐电池的比较：
• 安全性：沙电池比传统的锂电池或熔盐电池更安全，因为沙子不易燃且化学稳定。锂电池过热时可能起火，而沙电池即使在高温下也能保持稳定，降低了风险。
• 可靠性：沙电池非常耐用，可以反复使用而不会退化，确保长期可靠性。相比之下，熔盐电池容易腐蚀，增加了维护成本。
• 成本效益：沙子是一种丰富且廉价的资源，使沙电池的建造和维护成本比锂离子或熔盐电池低很多，适合大规模储能。
8. 国家安全：电动汽车和应急系统
使用可再生能源驱动的电动军用车辆和应急系统将带来战略优势。在石油短缺或海上封锁时，电动汽车可以确保军事和应急行动的持续性，提升国家安全。
9. 空气制水系统：农业用的可再生能源
可再生能源还可以为大气水发生器（AWG）供电，利用风能或太阳能从空气中凝结水分。这种清洁水可用于戈壁沙漠等干旱地区的灌溉，将荒地转变为肥沃的农业用地，提升粮食安全。
10. 中国作为净能源出口国
通过充分利用戈壁沙漠的可再生能源潜力，中国可以从全球最大的石油进口国转变为净能源出口国。太阳能和风电场生产的多余能源可以出售给邻国，增加收入，并增强中国作为清洁能源领导者的地缘政治影响力。
11. 5万亿美元的能源生产投资
通过5万亿美元的投资，中国可以在未来十年新增约4000吉瓦（GW）的太阳能和风能发电能力。每年将生产约8万太瓦时（TWh）的清洁电力。按每MWh 60美元的全球电价计算，这将每年带来约4800亿美元的能源出口收入。加上减少化石燃料进口的节省，这一投资将进一步提升中国的经济地位。
12. 满足中国的全部能源需求
5万亿美元的投资将使中国满足100%的能源需求。目前，中国的总能源消耗约为6000太瓦时。通过增加8万TWh的可再生能源，中国将完全摆脱对化石燃料的依赖。这样将每年节省约1.5万亿美元的石油进口费用，而剩余的可再生能源还可以出口，带来额外收入。
结论：未来愿景
通过专注于在戈壁沙漠的大规模可再生能源投资，中国可以实现能源独立、经济增长和环境可持续性，巩固其在清洁能源领域的全球领导地位。
Agree. Absolutely correct strategic direction for China to improve energy security and dependencies, and transform its cost effectiveness and mega capacity for AI, high energy industries. Truly smart strategic planners.
Thank you very much. I learned so much from your post. I think so many people fail to realize that China and the CPC are so doing so much more than managing financial, fiscal and political affairs. They’re planning ahead for 5, 10, 15+ years for the future generations, and, most importantly, actually following through. And they achieve this despite all the anti-China propaganda and obstacles that the western governments place in front of them. What other country on this planet has achieved this? I’m always impressed with China and the Chinese people.
Impressive , clear and far-sighted. Thanks for sharing
Excellent analysis. I only wish the western bankers had a clue.
Don't expose it. Shush let the world be subrised
Glad to see U$D doing some good around the world with building massive ports such as in Peru, trains in Hungary & so much more. First time maybe ever that the U$D has been used so beneficially for others. It's none of U$a's business where these dollars "are" nor where they are going. De-dollarization can take many forms.
love when the USA calls out on China "transparency"... do you tell your neighbors what you do everyday?
What you are saying, Kevin, would be valid if ALL of China's foreign trade was conducted in USD. To the best of my knowledge, about half of China's exports are now received in Yuans. This makes it very simple for China to get rid of ALL its dollars.
All China has to do is to use ALL dollars generated from their exports AND sales of treasury bills to pay for PART of their imports (roughly half of total imports). I stress the word PART.
In fact, the USDs generated from trade surplus and treasury bill sales are NOT enough to pay for China's imports.
I repeat: THE DOLLARS FROM TRADE SURPLUS AND SALE OF TREASURY BILLS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO PAY FOR ALL OF CHINA'S IMPORTS.
I want to emphasize that only half of their exports are received in dollars, the other half in yuans.
Thanks to their exports in yuans, it is very easy for China to get rid NOT ONLY OF THE TRADE SURPLUS, but also of the dollar proceeds originated from the sale of their treasuries. That gap you show in the graph is nothing else but the payments received in yuans.
They first get rid of all those USDs to pay for imports. Once all the dollars received from trade balances and from sale of treasuries are spent, THEN AND ONLY THEN they start paying in yuan.
Easy peasy. No misteries. They will soon have gotten rid of all their USDs.
The net effect is that the US is bleeding from trade deficits with China, paying obviously in USDs, but China is not adding a single dollar to its reserves. They send them, immediately upon receipt, to countries all over the world to pay for imports from those countries, who are not too vulnerable to having their USDs stolen from them. Some selected countries are paid in yuan, AFTER all the USDs have been spent and gotten rid of.
I don't think they are "hiding" as in saving them up somewhere. It's just unreported and hidden from our view. Likely, it is use as US denominated loan to Global South nation to repay IMF loans or FDI in those countries, thereby gradually freeing other countries from U$ dominance, thus enhancing their hand.
Excellent on point analysis. Paying for imports in US dollars, making investments in other countries in US dollars and buying gold in US dollars.
No magic and no mystery.
@@basilfoster3107 All current loans will be made in yuans. China wants to get rid of ALL dollar denominated assets. But there is no need to complicate things: just get rid of them paying for the imports expressed in dollars. If you add the gold purchases, that's an over kill.
@@marcc1830 They are neither hiding nor saving: they are simply using those dollars to pay for part of their imports. Nothing more complicated than this.
These comments make sense. I can’t think of any reason for a country to sit on 700billion of depreciating currency.
I supposed the US don't fudge the figures at all. We used love Americans as well back in the days! But we are just not that into y'all anymore. The problem It's y'all, not us that! The relationship has gotten just too abusive verbally & mentally. We hope that it won't become physical in the future.
It is Wash.DC , please understand that .
@@clroger4 you voted those people in? you are what you vote 🤷♀
@moiramaine8986 wrong
China 🇨🇳 is going around the US 🇺🇸 Dollar 💵 ro minimize any Risk of confiscation
They are born traders and now manufacturers... Hahahaha 😂 😁
I love the grounded reality of this channel!!!
*If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you..prevent inflation.*
I feel sympathy and empathy for our country, low income earners are suffering to survive, and I appreciate Wayne. You've helped my family with your advice. imagine investing $30,000 and receiving $95,460 after 28 days of trading.
I'm in a similar situation where should I look to increase income? Do you have any advice? What did you do ? Thank you
Well I engage in nice side hustles like inves'ting, and the good thing is I do it with one one of the best(Michael Wayne), he's really good!
Did someone just mention Mr Wayne!? Damn! You just made my day; what a coincidence.. I've worked with him for over 2years and I can tell how good he is
It's great to see you guys talking about
Michael Wayne, This man changed the game for me. Good Man ❤️
Never underestimate China 🇨🇳.
If you are not in the financial market right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation
How can I get in touch with Maria Williams ? What are her offerings?
Oh great I'm interested then, will reach out to her now. thanks a lot
Though I started with as low as $13,000
actually because it was my first time and it was successful, She's is a great personality
Best signal provider in the market.
Knowledgeable, level headed (no loss like some other traders who recently jumped on the bandwagon).
Trading crypto now should be wise, but trading without an expert isn't advisable.
I tried trading on my own but keep on losing. I think I'Il give her a try
Imagine one day things like commodities - metal and precious metal, oil, etc is not quoted in US$.
I watch an analyst that has been saying China would dump their dollar stocks and US treasury bonds to decouple from the dangerous yankee financial system since as early as mid-2022 at the latest. Glad to see he was right.
Tremendous revelations. Thanks for sharing.
Very good analysis channel. Much appreciated
I disgree with Kevin's analysis.
The difference between custom's import/export and SAFE numbers is a typical problem in countries in Asia (you can check the same numbers in Taiwan for example).
The reason is simple: custom's stats are typically from value reported by the companies, which do not tell how the money flows.
so a company may ship a boat of merchandise to US but ask the payment be sent to a bank in UK.
SAFE is only counting the money on hand.
actually, a more interesting question is: China had a FX reserve about 3 trillion dollars 5 years ago, and still has the same amount today, despite of having almost 4 trillion dollars trade surplus in 5 years.
where did the 4 trillion dollars trade surplus go?
😊😊😊😊😊
We wait !!! For your videos.
Kevin, thank you for all the great reporting you do.
Totally wrong. It is not your dollars, they belong to the owner. Just by saying so makes a strong point, why it is to risky to have assets within the Western Hegemony. Their regimes are not following International Law.
Also,
That balance. Each country is responsible for its own. If the US wants to have it on a bilateral way, then just do it. Import less from that country in imbalance. Or even better, start to export gods with value.
But stuff would be more expensive. Americans love stuff. Add politics, and end of Discussion.
Grateful to have you in my stream. Thank you. Best wishes.
Great video !! Your content is consistently excellent!
Kevin, your analysis only works if all imports and exports are in USD. But that's not the case in China. They no longer have a huge USD surplus because a large and growing percent of sales receipts are in Yuan and other currencies. I think that might explain the "missing" $700 billion.
Kevin is referring to the trade done in USD only and where some of those USD went.
The Chinese are learning to love gold even more than they love USD.
As gold continues to gain in value compared with the USD, the benefit of holding gold continues to increase. The USD is still superior to gold as a medium of exchange, however, that could change if the BRICS central banks create a gold backed currency as a medium of exchange between BRICS central banks.
BRICS won't create a global BRICS currency because it's not in their interest to do so. China, India, and Russia each have very different needs and tolerance for supporting a global currency over their domestic currency. Technically speaking, China doesn't even need to back the Yuan with gold, because the CNY is backed by Chinese factories. That is, any holder of CNY can immediately convert to containers of finished goods. Same with Russia, where holders of Rubles simply convert to natural gas or foodstuffs. They don't need to convert to gold. The countries who should be looking at gold-backed currencies are African, Central Asian, etc. They should be establishing a common currency and monetary union in their own self interest, rather than paying seigniorage to the US or France.
Finance is my weak spot
If the US imports from China and we pay China with a dollar we just printed
And if China never comes to the U.S. to use that dollar, then it looks like the US is swapping paper money for actual goods, not needing to provide anything more valuable that a piece of printed paper
The problem is that a country currency is basically an IOU that is immediatly due. Each dollar our treasury print out will make the paper money in our wallet worth less in purchasing power. If China put that printed dollar we paid them back in our economy like they always had before our government went ballistic in weaponizing OUR dollar, then there is not any serious problem because that purchasing power basically come back, we are kind of just borrowing from our future. Now if they hide it by lending it to other nations so that they can build bridges and ports then in essence WE the people raise a loan to build bridges or a ports in those places. The purchasing power did not come back. And we shall pay for it with the devaluation of the purchasing power of the "benjamins" in our wallet. Now, it's just not a problem with China, we are just focus on China because that's what our dear leaders are pointing us to. Everyone else is doing it in some form or other now that they see us confiscating other people reserve. And that is the price of being the global reserve. Everyone on the planet will hold dollar (aka. an IOU that is due immediately due, issued by WE the people).
@@marcc1830 哥们，我有一个问题，就是你认为一个国家的货币成为全球货币是一件好事还是坏事？
Money has no value.the only value it has is the one you give it, that's why you must buy assets when you get some.
@@isFrror Neither. It is like fire. You can warm yourself with it or you let it burn you. It is like water that can nourish our field or drown our homes. Since you type in Chinese, I assume you are Chinese. So in your heart, you already know this.
US could have manage the borrowed liquidity better and channel that into something that benefit "We the people" more equally like lowering health care cost but we have a health industry lobby to stop that. Or build infrastruture and invest in the future of "we the people". Heavily subsidize university education to invest the future of "WE the people". But we have Wall Street lobby that package what amount to blowing up values of assets they pay dirt for and call that investment. When
things doesn't work out ( how could it?), as the benefit of the reserve privilege create a vast wealth gap. We have Military Industrial Complex telling us everyone else on the planet is plotting against us and we need to build 800+ military base to put everyone in its place by starting wars and revolution everywhere. Then we do have everyone plotting against us. Self fulfilling prophecy. China, India, Indonesia, and Africa, be smarter, be better, remember these lesson from "We the People". Sigh.
@isFrror yes and no. China don't like there money to be used, they need to control it. The interest rate. Because they export alot but if they were like us financial export. It's good
Well done per usual!
Converted to gold perhaps?
Precisely
bitcoin maybe
@@tgl6269
Bitcoin is a scam
why would they keep the dollar when it is losing its value as the us debt goes higher, especially when they will be coming out with an alternative BRICs currency.
After Trump pisses off all of our allies, no one will come to help us too.😂😂😂
China have been doing this for many many years....set up BRICS and the NDBC under obutthead....stole intellectual tech property via silicon valley...etc etc Trump just wants America to be independent of any future foreign control.
That Peru port is likely being built with discounted USD😊
Not discounted. They are business people after all, just unreported 😅
The terminology is wrong. It is the capital account that usually doesn't have much action, and the financial account that is full of activity. It used to be that the capital and financial accounts were just one single account called the capital account. But there was a change in terminology and the two were split. From the IMF: "The capital account covers all transactions that involve the receipt or payment of capital transfers and acquisition or disposal of nonproduced, nonfinancial assets. The financial account covers all transactions associated with changes of ownership in the foreign financial assets and liabilities of an economy."
Had no idea this was happening, great insight!
The problem is the dollar is privately owned via the Federal reserve. So it is the US banks. There is no distinction here. Just the moving of dollars is not what the US governement wants. It is what US business people want.
Great channel. Smart analysis.
Mr. Walmsley I must commend the “ RESEARCH “ you and your team ( If you have a team / group ) do in gathering facts AND presenting them them to the audience in simple, understandable language. Very well done ! Thank you.
Great post as always
You are best China analyst by far.
Jai Hind. Better to use the printed paper to finance BRI projects in the Global South rather than parking in USD treasury bonds like most countries with USD trade surpluses which are then mostly used to finance more war sufferings in the Global majority countries like Russia and the Umat2.
A most enlightening episode.
All the missing money from the government and you people want to question China 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Just excellent analysis.
Bring those dollars to Africa.
they are
I think that's exactly what happened to them. Dollar loan so Africa can pay back IMF. And they balance that out by buying resources, setting up factories there. If repayment is necessary, they accept a mixture of RMB or local currencies.
China loves our dollar, until we cannot hold its value. But, it is the US $. And there’s no way we can let “not hold its value” happen.
So, they found a way to be on the dollar wagon and make money with the others on the same wagon. Smooth operator!
Yes and no. China is converting those dollars into gold and commodities too
Very interesting video
Maybe they prefer to keep it under the mattress?😂
No, not necessarily. Just any place that cannot be confiscated by a rogue entity that has a bad habit of using sanctions on other countries in the world which she perceived as falling into categories she deemed as breaking so-called "rules-based order" made up by her unilaterally, and which she herself does not abide too.
Chinese don't keep their money in mattress. Back in the day, they hide it in their books literally, like between the pages. Now, I think they are doing it metaphorically 😁
Non dollar assets like agricultural land , infrastructure , mines , BRI , oil fields , stockpiles of food and raw materials etc. Anything that's worth something is better than a going to collapse dollar system that's based on unrepayable massive debt.
I think of The Dark Knight. The Joker just burns his pile of money because he only need guns, dynamite and gasoline, which are all cheap. Sometimes people eliminate money because they have greater aspirations.
Sounds like China is de- coupling faster than the US could only imagine. Does the end game mean the US is forced to print more money that ultimately will continue going to China. I'll need to watch this video a few more times. Great information and thank you.
China is "de-risking"
We all know why.
Where has the 700 billon USD gone?
Reportedly, China has loaned its US dollars to nations hurt by the Fed's interest plays to shield them from the utter collapses that happened in previous Fed interest rate cycles. These nations can use the borrowed dollars to repay USD loans, and swapping them into RMB loans.
As a result, the damage caused by the most recent Fed move is less severe this time around.
I have not done research on the total size of these loans.
Interesting
Thank you for this information.
Why take USD for real goods and materials, when USA just prints it for nothing? This game will stop when BRICS create an alternative.
The surplus USD is used to buy Gold?
" Hidden Kitty Bank " ... for a "Rainy Day " ???????
Thank you for the update sir! It's good to know what's really going on in the world economy....not just the "narrative" being pushed here by MSM.
Best channel.cheers from Romania
It's going into the Belt and Road, and uplifting the entire 3rd world.
Maybe it is not easy to tally that 3 accounts to zero due to the enormous size? Just like the US cannot get accurate monthly numbers for employment but always need to publish a "revised" figure almost every month.
Great information, yesterday and today! Thank you!!!
Love this channel! I haven't seen any mainstream finance channel cover this development. It is intriguing that China isn't re-circulating its excess dollars back into treasuries and the US market.
Great show ✨
You make it sound like they’re doing something they’re not supposed to. But are they?
😂
Once again thank you, Kevin.
Could the “missing dollars” be used as loans to developing countries as part of the Belts and Roads Initiative?