Top pollster Sir John Curtice 'surprised' by summer election | LBC analysis
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- Rishi Sunak has called a July 4 General Election after being urged to "get on with it" and take the nation to the polls.
The PM claimed the Conservatives' 'plan is working' and the 'economy has turned a corner'.
Meanwhile Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has vowed "it's time for change" as campaigns kick off.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice joins Nick Ferrari to discuss, including what may have prompted the Summer polling date after wide-spread predictions of an Autumn election.
Listen to the full show on Global Player: app.af.globalp...
#nickferrari #generalelection #election2024 #ukpolitics #uknews #rishisunak #sirjohncurtice #tories #labour #keirstarmer #LBC
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I understand what Sir John says about “will Labour do any better……” BUT surely you have to look at the carnage that successive Tory governments have brought upon the country. The people surely cannot accept that voting Tory again is the way forward. We need change, we NEED to get these Tories out
Labour *might* do better. The Tories *definitely* won't. I'll take that.
Labour won't do much better imo. Starmer is a Tory in a red tie anyway.
But I can't imagine they could do worse.
The Tory party always manages to surprise you with its conveyor belt of lunatics.
Starmer's Labour ARE tories. FPTP = no choice, no change
Conservative politics is the politics of the self.
And some WILL vote in their own best interests and not the country's.
Agree but unfortunately critical thinking isn't a thing in the UK. Voting for Brexit being the prime example.
Why would anyone believe Rishi's promise about Rwanda?
If that is the central part of the Tory campaign, they're finished.
half a billion to send 1 person. tory economics at its finest.
@@kanedNunable Labour are just going to create more opportunities for the Tories the time after next. Just think when Kier wins in July, he's going to create the opportunity for The Tories to spend half a trillion sending one person back, next time they get in.
Happy to take those illegal immigrants into your spare room are we?
Labour has made a lot of their plan clear. Closer relations with the EU for starters because everyday we keep on blaming them is another one where the economy is not near where it could have been without Brexit.
@@clownofthetimes6727 Labour have already said they will work to improve relations and makes sure we align with them where possible. That will be needed to even start talking about rejoining. I would think that we'll have to go past at least a second general election without the tories getting close to power, so that the EU can see they're not in a position to reverse everything again.
@@Human_Herbivore Closer cooperation yes; but I don't see a future in which the UK is allowed to cause trouble and be a stumbling block within Europe ever again. We might be allowed to join the single market and have to pay into the budget; but will never be allowed to have a say. De Gaulle called it and was proved right.
@@kiljaeden7663 when we were in the EU, we were one of the big players. No big decisions were made without the UK approval. It will take a long time to get back to that because the UK has proved itself untrustworthy, but, otherwise we will be forever a rule taker rather than maker in the most successful trading block in the world.
A 1% wealth tax on £10+ multimillionaires generates £2,000+ per child in the UK per year. £1 invested in Universal School Meals returns almost £2.
Tax wealth more. Tax workers less.
On a serious note, the Tories can not fix any of the problems that they created becasue the type of people that are Tories are those who would rather dig in than admit any mistakes. The Tories will not admit Brexit was a mistake so they will never fix any related Brexit issues facing the UK. Almost all our issues are Brexit related some how.
It needs a new government to start taking on these failures as the Tories have really have not governed for 13 years.
Nearly all our issues are immigration. Not Brexit.
@@alvanrigby6361Brexit causedhe surge in immigration, plus, Tory cut-backs in training programmes due to Osbourne's austerity meant shortages of doctors, nurses, teachers, armed for es, police....to mention but a few.
No it did not cause a surge in immigration. Deliberate actions by governments caused a surge in immigration. Spiteful Remoaners are the problem. They would prefer that the UK would be destroyed and its people displaced. Tory Remoaners, Labour Remoaners, Lib/Dem Remoaners - they are all the same
Asleep during Covid and Ukraine were you? Brexit is a small, pithy issue designed to distract the gullible from the issues and those who are really doing the harm.
@@normanchristie4524Only Brexit saved the Tories from a battering in 2019.
I'm old enough to have seen the same pattern every time we have a Tory Government. It doesn't matter whether it was Heath, Thatcher, Major, Cameron, Johnson or whoever, the condition they leave our country in is identical. Prisons full to bursting, economy struggling, too many unemployed, nhs staff shortages and crumbling infrastructure, teachers stressed out and leaving the industry and social issues as a result of mismanagement of immigration!
I know the answer isn't always easy and I know Labour haven't always been great but under Blair for a decade, is the ONLY time in my life where things improved and people had hope and genuinely felt better because the economy was very strong and we had genuine investment in schools and hospitals!
The Tory's have let us all down yet again. We must get Labour back in and we must get back to work. We must make it harder for the people smugglers, invest in nurses and teachers and educate our children about the dangers of drugs and alcohol. We must prevent kids getting into crime because when they are in county lines or whatever it's too late!!
Agree but unless there's a change in the system we'll keep repeating the same cycle alternating between blue and red tories.
@@IMBlakeley I'm honestly not sure about Starmer's personality. He's a bit bland for me and lacking in passion, but what choice do we have? There is no choice.There is no other party than can win the election. We need a party which thinks about society first, NOT the individual. We need a Govt with a social conscience first, NOT personal greed. All of these things are supposed to be ingrained in Socialism and the Labour Party. We must also open our eyes and listen to people who are calling for assisted dying which is long overdue. We treat our animals better than our grandparents and parents!!!
@@Denis.Collins You're being sidetracked by bias and a personal dislike. You need to consider the bigger picture. Blair ran the 2nd best economy in history. He reduced child poverty. He actually invested in Education where previously no-one had bothered much. My cousin who was a teacher in Notts saw first hand the improvements in her school and this intervention prevented her Head and others from leaving the profession all together. It also encouraged many to train as teachers and my sister in law became a teaching assistant because of the change. She packed in in 5 years ago because of the shambles the Tories have made of things!
And let me assure you that without the investment between 97 and 2009 in the nhs infrastructure the nhs wouldn't be here today. Could it have been financed better? Yes. Would there have been any nhs left if the Tories were in? No.
Gambling de-regulated by the Bliar government as were the banks. That went well, didn't it? Student debt. Pfi still saddling hospital trusts with debt. Yes, they were wonderful!
@@rb1062 If you're going to enter the debate please make sure you get your facts right :-The Big Bang occurred on October 27, 1986, when the London Stock Exchange (LSE) was deregulated and became a private limited company. Deregulation is considered an achievement of the Conservative government led by Margaret Thatcher, which opened the London Stock Exchange to foreign firms and improved trading. Secondly students "should" pay for getting a Uni education as they benefit from earning higher salary's than those that don't. I know many who have had no problem whatsoever with this system. And as for Pfi I agree it was not the best idea, HOWEVER the alternative from the Tories which was NO additional investment and letting the older Victorian hospitals crumble, wasn't very appealing either!
Why is anyone surprised im like really this zombie party is out of time and really you just have to see how weird Sunak was in PMQ's Yesterday that he was out of support and even more funny now is the 1922 committee is trying to get Sunak out and block this election.
Labour 47% Tories 21%.
if only
Labour 21% tories 21% united Islamic kingdom party 57% they will win
@@nero5379_UULNITED? FFS 🥴😂🇬🇧
@@nero5379_Great, anything's better than what we have now lol
Excellent, thanks for unwavering support @@nero5379_
Tories were scared of Reform attacking from the right !
The far right
That makes a change from Pincher attacking from the rear ?
sleep walking back to europe hold your nose ? remeber the last labour mess
@@SteveHitchcock-g3t I think the vast majority of the population has already worked out that although not perfect being in the EU was better than not being a member, it's costing us 100 billion a year now by being out of it. Hopefully once we've got rid of the Tories we can begin to reverse at least some if not all of the damage they've caused. & forge closer tie with the EU once again, even if that means not fully rejoining & having a kneading voice around the table as we previously had.
Instead Labour has attacked them from rhe right 😅
Get rid of Labour and the Tories, vote Reform UK 🇬🇧
Have the media of all persusions agreed to sing off the hymn sheet - Labour have nothing to offer.
John curtice is brilliant 👏 👌
Election is during the school holidays in Scotland. A lot of people will be away so I hope they will register for postal votes
It's a Edinburgh Holiday mainly known as The Edinburgh trades.
Proxy votes are better, postal votes are to easing corrupted you only need to go back to 2014 to know that.
@@JamesLochridge-u1hno evidence for your nonsense.
We're away but have postal voted for years so i'll be voting long before the booths close. Tories out, SNP out!
@@Denis.Collins No evidence for your nonsense either.
The PM knows that things are getting worse and if he delays the election the truth will be obvious about how bad things are.
not much about the state of the NHS...in particular the tories
I am going to vote for labour because of the dredful state of the NHS
It would be funny if the Tories got 295 seats and the opposition was the majority. They could make them form a minority govt and the combined opposition tell them "Your mess Clear it up or we vote you down" !
One question is, what is going to happen in the election for the Northern Ireland population? Are they going to continue the slide towards Ireland Unification or is this going to be halted?
A 1% wealth tax on £10+ multimillionaires generates £2,000+ per child in the UK per year. £1 invested in Universal School Meals returns almost £2.
Tax wealth more. Tax workers less.
Need to rejoin EU ASAP.
No, we don't. We don't even fit the criteria set out by Copenhagen. We'd have to accept Scheghen and the euro. But you know what you're voting for, right?
@@rb1062Yes, unlike Brexiters we do. Accepting Schengen and the Euro is fine by me to reverse the damage that Brexiters have done to our country.
@@rb1062 this would all be fine. The idiot Brexiteers brought this on us.
vote reform back to europe we go
@@ne-ht4zx The idiocy is having to accept Scheghen and the euro. Look what's happening in Ireland 🇮🇪.
Legalise 🍄 🍄
And Cannabis
@soton5teve I've known so many people who could have benefited from the pain relief. Uks so backwards...
Lend Labour Your Vote at General Election.
I’m looking forward to being asked to vote Tory: I shall simply ask the questioner to name one thing- just one- that is better than it was in 2010.
As a former Tory voter I agree. But don't hope that things will get better under Labour. Get ready unfettered immigration, mass censorship, more borrowing.
@@rb1062 hasn't legal and illegal immigration been far higher under the tories than it ever was under labour? Labour also managed to deport a great deal more people then the tories have. Borrowing has skyrocketed under the tory mismanagement of the economy.The national debt is now eye-wateringly high. Where are you getting your news from?!!
@@ne-ht4zx What was done in the past doesn't matter. It's the future, whoch matters. What we're hearing from Labour doesn't fill me with any great hope. Get back to me when Labour bring the immigration numbers down.
@@Denis.Collins It was Thatcher who deregulated the banks. Look no further than her for the cause of 2008.
@@Denis.Collinsit was Thatcher who unregulated the banking and the Tories were pressing Brown to unregulate banking further just before the global crash.
It's interesting that to achieve just a one seat majority Labour need a 12 point swing , something they've never achieved before. A lot has been said about recent by elections but in Wellingborough Labours vote was only 107 , yes 107 more than in 2019 , Kingswood was 5316 less than in 2019 and recently Blackpool only 1200 more, in otherwords if Conservative voters get out and vote ( unless they want Starmer or even worse a coalition of chaos of Starmer, Mr Ed , SNP and of the green loons ) then its no
done deal at the election . Kinnock thought he'd win in 92 and recently May with her 20 point lead in 2017 thought she'd get a landslide.
Kinnock wasn't confident in private.
Not sure Starmers lead is as strong as some folk think. His response to what is happening in Gaza has cost him dearly so a lot of independent candidates will cause him problems, well deserved problems IMO. No sensible person in Scotland will vote for either Labour or Tory as they are both English parties supporting Westminster.
Labour's stance on Gaza is a ceasefire and a 2 state solution and there a Unionist party
Just take a look at brex1t then amplify it by 10 if you want to know what economic independence would look like
@@SlowhandGregLabour's stance is a 70 year old Fabian debating point. The Israel government charter denies any agreement to a two state solution. It's been dead in the water for decades.
SNP has has shown remarkable incompetence and have mismanaged not only themselves but Scotland for years. I will be glad to see the back of them which I sincerely hope will happen.
I will vote for any independent candidate I can find. Even if he pledges to ban chocolate!
"English Parties supporting Westminster"........Give yersel a shake will ye. Xenophobes are us 🤣🤣
It's true to say that Starmer has incredible trust issues to overcome, it may not be the easy ride some pundits claim.
Don't you mean Truss issues
the people who dont trust starmer but will trust rishi? lol.
Congratulations to LBC on their AztraZeneca Sponsorship
Never forget Ferrari's attitude to people who wanted to choose whether or not to inject unproven stuff into their bodies.
Curtis always full of tired old Tory framing and talking points. Surely it’s time for someone with a fresher, more dynamic, data-driven and eloquent analysis to replace Curtis as the go-to-psephologist across legacy media. I don’t see how his stale, outdated views add value to public discourse.
I'm also a bit perplexed by how this chap who says what polls say is so venerated.
Oh help they are all pooh pooh.
Mmmm this is not the “snap” election I would have called… probably would have been better to go for it in may
ok, somewhere on RUclips I predicted an election on the 20th of June. I'm 2 weeks out. I'm now going back to sleep!😵😁
You're better than me. I predicted 10th October!
rishi has been looking through the RUclips videos. he just wanted to be different!
*_>>>18-%-TORIES
Vote labour - breath of fresh air
Tell us how they are different to the Tories. They are controlled by the same globalists.
7 months time January 2025 he had to announce a general election anyway
quite awkward hearing nick breathing down the mic
Is Sir John neutral? Don't think so
You go where the data leads.
Reason our economy is down the toilet is following an economic ideology not looking at economic reality
No one is completely neutral.
Curtis keeps banging on about polls exaggerating the Labour vote share. That’s why psephologists look at multiple sources and general trends. This narrative that all the polls are overstating Labour support when there’s huge variability speaks more to Curtis’ pro-Tory instincts than proper evidence-based analysis.
He’s on record as saying it’s 99% likely that Labour will win. If you’re going to accuse him of bias, base it on the whole record, not selective quotes.
Vote Reform UK 🇬🇧
One
Has to have Respect for Sir John Curtis 0:54 and his analysis of a Dire Political Situation in the United Kingdom.
But my Question to Sir John would be why did He never think of dipping his Intellectual political knowledge by entering Westminster.
Or in Truth, does he Really Believe that it is a Compleat Waste of Time as its seem to Me an OBSERVER'S.
We need to implement Brexit.
We have mate. You just didn't know what you were voting for.
@@1porter This is a Remoaner Brexit. Implemented by Reoaners, for Remoaners and by Remoaners.
Go on what would you do legally differently then. We've had about the hardest Brexit possible and it has fully lived down to expectation.
@@IMBlakeley As though I would go into detail in a conversation like this. Self obvious and don't use the Remoaner tactic of throwing Red Herrings and expecting people to chase after them.
@@1porterDid you know what you were voting for?
I will be voting for Reform, as any voice that they have in parliament will be important.
Both main parties are realising that Reform can be a force to reckon with, and will hopefully start to listen to the people.
For anyone concerned about the stability of the country, note that the country is run by civil servants, so UK plc will continue as normal.
What we need is both main parties seeing Reform biting at their heels, and starting to listen to the people and tackle mass migration and forced multiculturalism.
Vote Reform UK.
Jog on comrade. Reform won't have enough time to field enough candidates
😂😂😂 with no plan for anything other than the forrins on em boats
Migration both legal and illegal has skyrocketed because we removed FOM and left the EU you were told by experts this would happen but you labelled it project fear and yet your supporting doubling down on what's causing the rising numbers, Why?
2018
Historic examples include Britain’s decision to end the unrestricted entry of Commonwealth subjects in the 1960s, Germany’s experience with admitting temporary “guest workers” from the 1960s, and the US ending its labour program for Mexican workers in 1965.
Drawing lessons from those experiences, the SMF predicted that ending EU freedom of movement and restricting EU nationals’ right to enter and stay in Britain for work will have precisely the opposite effect on immigration patterns to the one many Brexit supporters say they want.
Reform! 😂😂
Reform UK is not a political party.
🌹
This election isn’t over yet. Now everyone’s focus will be on Labour, support will crumble away.
Dream on. Sounds like some serious Tory cope.
if labour gets back to europe we go
Palestine
Don’t care. We have no influence anyway. Need to reverse the damage in this country- austerity and Brexit.
Don't vote for the tories or Labour vote for reform.
Can you please provide a list of Reform’s policies?
Vote for none of them. Stay at home they're all the same!
Yes vote for the man of the people, Tice 🤣
you mean deform
Not even Farage is voting for them now!
If Labour had been in charge over the last 5 years we’d be in a significantly worse position than we are now. No country in the world is doing as well as we are currently.
keep drinking the coolaid
Bless
Bore off comrade
Deluded
This is the worst government in UK history of any stripe if you look at the economic numbers
I'll give you a few for free
Lower living standards after a 5 year term (again never been recorded in UK history)
Biggest drop in living standards in a 2 year period (4.2% of falling GDP per Capita)
highest inflation in a 2 year period average 20%
etc
There is no appetite for a Labour victory , Rishi is starting to show backbone and in my opinion he is on the right path for our country . I pray that people will realise by 4th July that Starmer/Labour are not a electable , promises and no substance.
🤣
You absolute melt 😂
In your opinion.
Hi Rishi
Give your head a wobble
*_>>>18-%-TORIES