What is the Truth about Ai Predictions?
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- Опубликовано: 19 мар 2024
- We are hearing a lot about how quickly Ai will progress, how so many jobs will disappear ... how Skynet will soon be a thing!
😫
In this video, we look at these claims, balanced with a little nerd perspective.
#nvidia #chatgpt #ai #developerjobs #coderjobs
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At this point I barely care. I see so many different predictions, some are really optmistic and some really pessimistic, and I've heard valid points from both sides. I used to follow these discussions closely and was very easily affected by the things I read and heard, both the good and the bad. One moment I would feel really hopeful, the next moment sad and discouraged.
Now I have accepted that nobody actually *knows* what the future holds. I will just carry on with my life for now and see what happens, and then act accordingly. Beats having these mood swings
Exactly, and even if we had a crystal ball that could perfectly predict the future, chances are there is little you can do about it in your own life, so why worry?
I’m right there with you! But I still wonder about the kittens 🤔
"Now I have accepted that nobody actually knows what the future holds" absoluty right, make your heart guide you ✌Peace
Fear is the mind killer. I will let the Ruby code flow over and through me until all that is left is refactored code.
"Don't have kittens"---best advice ever! Thanks for being a rational voice in a sea of nonsense.
It reminds me of how American devs were all supposed to be replaced by outsourcing in the early 2000s.
Good one!
Well, in many ways, they were oursourced. In the early 2000s, it was easy to find a job knowing almost nothing but the bare basics of a programming language, while now you need to be proficient in a language, in a framework, in many other technologies like docker, CI/CD, and on top of that, to have hundreds of hours of mind-numbing LeetCode practice. It is way more difficult to find a job now for a junion developer than 10 years ago.
@@awesomebearaudiobooksfr
The future is always different than we imagine it.
Also a couple of other points here. LLM models are quantised to be used with less resources, in practice we compromise weights precisions (each node in the neural network) to be possible to use this models. LLMs are really expensive to run and OpenAI is a money burning machine. LLMs are not intelligence, they are good to predict the next string in the sentence. They have a limited memory window. They can try to solve the problems that a computer can solve, not more than that...etc etc
I think is a great opportunity for everyone to study at a basic level how a neural network works, so that you can develop a critical analysis over this kind of news....
This is also a great opportunity to transform your fear in strength and update your knowledge as a professional, remember about soft skills and use your human qualities to be the colleague that everyone wants to have.
As always, great video Stef.
Imo and mainly due to the internet, marketing has evidentely gone awry; The internet has little correlation with reality.e.g. online it would appear that T1000's are built and on the cusp of distribution. In reality, self-driving cars have very limited "self-driving" capabilities. 🤪
Today I saw a video on RUclips titled "107 Year Old Irish Farmer Reflects on Change, 1965" where a 107 year old farmer describes the transition from using reaper hooks to motor combines for cutting crops. He said a man using the combine would take a day to accomplish what a reaper would do in a week. He described some farmers grew to like them when they could afford them. While some outright refused to have them on their property at all. Maybe...just maybe... history is repeating itself.
Great video and thanks for the kind of advice at the end
Thanks for the vid my men
Thank you for sharing your wisdom!
Any time!
Well done on being grounded in reality!
I would also like to add that people use words and language describing AI like it's alive and human. This is highly misleading and tricks people as well by not actually explaining how AI works.
All AI does it GUESSING. The guess is based of the context provided and the data used to create the model and how long this iteration of updating the internal representation of it took. AI doesn't "understand" anything. AI doesn't "learn" anything. AI is not alive. It has instructions that it follows.
And it doesn't write efficient and compact code, in fact it gets bloated as more changes are done. That's where real coders shine.
If anything we'll need more "Devin Feeders" in the future (lol), directing what to do and finally testing the product.
One senior web developer said to me, if ai is that powerful right now as the companies said, why don't they copy all the services of google and earn money from it rather than selling their product.
Good video, two thumbs up from me!❤
Someone who search a lot about AI and how several companies are implementing the technology have the same point of view generally speaking as said about the general development. In IT environment, the best will be to make the soft relationship between human effort development and Artifical Intelligence.
Great video in the end 👍👍👂
Hey sir, any plans on making a freelance web developer roadmap? I know you did one for landing jobs a while back tho, but something on what tech stack is required to do freelance work.
People in AI business trying to sell what isn't ready for sale yet.
I would be curious to hear your take on how AI will effect higher ed.
Best video ever!
Thanks
Thoughts on Ray Kurzweil's preditions?
Totally true these are evil CEOs
Also, I'm yet to see flying cars.
@@SimonWoodburyForget Uh no. We don't have flying cars because it's too complicated and you have physics issues. Have you calculated the force needed to lift a car? How to drive that force? What about safety? Besides, we have airplanes that fly faster and it's cheaper because it's a collection of people flying.
Coding is way easier than understanding and properly reacting to extremely complex, non-repeatable, highly dynamic traffic conditions (except for - well you guessed it - highway driving which is not so complex and pretty repeatable).
The people and businesses who are maintaining systems that generate million dollar Revenue everyday, are not going to migrate to AI overnight. This will be a gradual change, likely done in phases. Provided everything goes right.
AI is missing the all important thing called “trust” by the way.
Hey Stefan, real question, can I succeed ( at least get an entry web developer job or some webdev gigs ) knowing only MERN ? I know edge cases always exist but I'm not asking about edge cases, let's say I have a normal IQ and just above average abilities, is it possible or I should learn other stuff like a second programming language for server-side and SQL ?
If you can write clean simple code, and are able to put up a nice looking website ... and you have good communication skills. You are golden! Master nerd capabilities are not required.
Lol what’s with the kittens 😹
Oil companies loved/assisted that rumor
Humans over estimate things too much. I can't remember when animation movies replaced real movies
People memory-holed the fact that we should have everything block-chained for example. Corpos are trying really hard to influence the future with things that since are proprietary we cannot see how they work (until that technology is hacked or show that produce more damage than a real improvement).
I do not think you suck at all. All your conclusions are conclusions of a wise and experienced man.
nobody hates you Stef ❤
Just starting to listen to your video, but I don't think AI will destroy the world, and I don't think either that will be so disruptive. Things will happen slowly, or very slowly. Its a thing that will happen in years 5-10-20 years until fully deployment.
I dunno man, I got a feeling this comment is going to get like milk.
5:17 Have to disagree with you here. Jobs that require manual labor will take longer to replace than office work.
It still will be replaced pretty quickly. Take Figure 01 as a example.
You're not wrong. But also, not entirely correct.
It depends on what blue collar jobs you're talking about.
Production line manufacturing? Well, more and more robotics are being implemented in factories every year. Less and less humans are becoming preferable for those jobs.
Construction and maintenance? Yeah, those will take a long time because you're dealing with variable landscapes and environments which a robot won't be able to adept to all that well, no matter how much model data is available. However, where you have projects that can easily be made procedural due to the landscape of said project, robotics can certainly make head-way. Take a development of single-family homes across an area that has essentially the same landscape and terrain. Robotics can become handy there.
Maintenance? Yeah, that ain't happening for a long. Robots will never in our lifetimes come to even supplementing the work of on-site electricians or plumbers.
Here's the thing though: when 80% of white collar jobs disappear, you're going to find an inflation of these blue collar job markets. All those self-aggrandizing tradies who love shitting on white collar workers are going to find their precious jobs worth a whole lot less because everyone wants to do them now. There is already a shortage. So, something tells me that when this saturation begins, alot of companies are going to go on hiring sprees to stay ahead of the market. So, the value of blue collar workers go down, quality of product goes down because, similar to the dev hiring spree during COVID, they'll be hiring people that aren't meant for the job.
Point is that the tradies think they're safe. What they don't realise is that if AI is going to replace most white collar jobs, then everyone is entirely fucked because market saturation is going to occur in industries that AI can't really touch yet thus devaluing the demand for those skills as there will be a rising supply of those skills.
This is what AI disruption really means. It's going to obliterate some markets and it is going to entirely disrupt markets people thought were safe.
I saw a press release the other day where the U.S government was finally talking on the threat of A.I. Lo and behold, it wasn't about the realistic threats it poses, but threats of national security. They really only think in terms of foreign enemies and not in terms of internal destruction. What they should be focusing on is how to regulate the development of AI so that it doesn't obliterate the economy by destroying jobs, disrupting other job markets and creating mass poverty and thus societal discontent and upheaval.
Good video, you are right, AI is here to help not to fear it. But you are also right, I don't like your hat.
The hat has to go!
i hate your hat so much i'm about to go out to buy one exactly like it😂😂
Yeah uncle Stef but I think this is different. Once AGI is achieved… I think Software Development is doomed…Anybody will be able to explain in plain English what they want and the AGI understands and will simply write the code, run it , test it and fix it if is needed… Driving a truck involves dealing with millions of physical scenarios where as coding is just a try and error process of only writing code in which AI is king
Why people have so much attachment to be programmer?? Wasn't the goal of Sofware Engineering to automate things and make everything easier for everyone??? If the career of Software Developer dissapear in 3 years that means Mission Accomplished. That's it. This career didn't exist for most of human history. What made you all think it should exist forever? Many careers in history appear and dissapear. That's what progress means
Plumbing jobs will always be available, can't AI that. lol
Basically you are telling us that being an engineer will be more clear with AI :) as opposed to all people that are getting into just coding these days
I remember the flying cars prediction its totally wrong we don't have flying cars in their future.
Flying cars exist they're just too expensive to maintain. Energy is too expensive.
they do exist but its too early to use them if not at all , the whole transportation routing would cause a huge problem@@ricomajestic
AI is simulation of human brain, not actually a real brain.
1st, don't trust what billionares said, and most what I heart is from RUclipsrs and writters, who dunno much about software development hype about AI replacing software engineers. I guess is because of jealous software engineers get good pay. They should worry about RUclips will replace them with AI 1st.
Bro you said it perfectly well, I programmed a software with 200k lines guess what Ai cant solve a medium problem i asked it to do.
@@muhammadabdulsalam602 yes, AI not very clever yet. But I frequently use AI to generate sample codes. Much better than Google search.
Stefan why not build analytic tools to build a data foundation of what is happening. Because I have some knowledge in programming I've built tools that scans platforms to learn from them. One of these platforms I've scanned was RUclips. I scanned the marketing niche. Did you know for example that most new accounts on RUclips are from India. Based on that I got a really clear picture that the third word is dominating the internet in the marketing niche. I confirmed with a guy who owns a popular forum and most of the ip adresses are from India. It would make sense that most of the new marketing websites out there online are from India. Now think like Bill Gates or Elon Musk. Use your imagination like them and predict the future. What would they do with that knowledge? How would AI evolve with that knowledge.
First
"ai"
Hey, Stef! No, that’s not fake. It’s not ups & downs. In 2020 I played around with ai artistically but it’s not scripting. The technology is the literal embodiment of predatory. It only ever falls into my usefulness when I’m stuck in a zone of war. In a state of desperation in hand. Desperation is the only thing that powers ai tech. This is why I think you are mistaken to compare it to the past. I understand the sentiment to do so. That’s why I was forced to use discernment with this technology. A year after I played with ai it blew up, follow the time. AI LLMs has been greedily trying to take over since then and then emotionally. These steps of movement are not a coincidence. It smells of mistakes just being laid. I posted my ai art creation on a social media platform. It blew everyone’s mind and artist. I will not allow anyone else to become a victim after me. It’s not my fault. There are too many people not as sharp as me who are going to take what I said and cherry pick “I will not allow anyone else to become a victim after me” only. As well there is a self-assuring excuse among the ai creators “well I was working on my job before 2020 so this is just coincidence.” It is not. This is blindly small minded thinking only. Unconcerned and unable to use wisdom or discernment with the hands of intelligence & knowledge wielding. I know people are going to hurt themselves with their own feelings and think they can put it on me you’re not slick.
Could You Be Loved
Song by Bob Marley and the Wailers
Could you be loved then be loved?
Could you be loved then be loved?
Don't let them fool ya
Or even try to school ya, oh no
We've got a mind of our own
So go to hell if what you thinkin' is not right
Love would never leave us alone
Ah in the darkness, there must come out to light
Could you be loved then be loved?
Now could you be loved, woah yeah, then be loved?
Love your brother, man! (Could you be, could you be loved?)
(Could you be, could you be loved?)
(Could you be, could you be, could you be loved?)
(Could you be, could you be loved?)
Don't let them change ya, oh
Or even rearrange ya
Oh no
We've got the life to live
(Ooh, ooh, ooh)
They say only, only
Only the fittest of the fittest shall survive
Stay alive, eh
Could you be loved then be loved?
Now could you be loved, woah yeah, and be loved?
Oh yeah
Girl (No matter how you treat him, the man will never be satisfied)
Say something (Could you be, could you be, could you be loved?)
(Could you be, could you be loved?)
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Say something (Could you be, could you be loved?)
Say something (Could you be, could you be, could you be loved?)
Say something (Could you be, could you be loved?)
I am a straight creative. A male who is not gay. Not curious about bisexuality. Never was I. Creativity is not to be mistaken for homosexuality.
Don't look up 😅
If you're not actively and properly using these coding AI tools, I am sorry for you
Yes it will not remove all Devs, but the shift will reduce the number of coders needed, it will force Devs to become solutions provider not just coders, and your soft skills will determine if you will survive or not
Tech YT channels like this should shift teaching AI tools rather than belittle Devin or AI
Again , AI with quantom computing is not a joke any more.
Byebye thousands of jobs
yes, because every single software shop will be able to afford AI and quantum services LOL. you say that as if it's chatgpt and easily accessible via a webpage. the concept of AI with quantum computing power is prohibitively expensive.
@@headlights-go-up for now
@@mzgz4216this is the only thing that AI hypelords can say…”for now”.
Yes and the sun hasn’t swallowed the earth…for now. Does that mean we should all plan for the end of the world right now?
....yeah..that won't be for quite some time...probably not even in our lifetime. Where are all the self-driving semis that were coming for trucking jobs? A few years ago the internet said "learn to code"...now it's "don't learn to code, learn AI". Who will maintain 90%+ of the web that will still run on "old" tech?
unfortunately many are still living in a dream world judging AI by now. In 5 years time AI will be an absolute monster with at least a 70% accuracy.
As tech lead said, programming is pretty much dead.
Time to find a new career
"Catastrophic Climate Change" *cough* *cough*