I'm not even kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it, Investing is a long-term game, so I try to focus on the long term.
I cannot focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 4years, you see l've got good companies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/ unstable market doesn't provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue wetting profit especially in a down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
I completely agree, I have been consistent with my profit regardless of the market conditions, I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2020 this time with guidance from an investment adviser that was recommended by a popular economist on a popular forum, long story short, its been years now and I've gained over $850k following guidance from my investment adviser.
If that is the case, it would be an innovative suggestion to look out for Financial Advisors like Olivia Maria Lucas who can help shape up your portfolio. Trying times are ahead, and good personal financial management will be very important to weather the storm.
A lot of folks have been going on about a March rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth this new year season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
@@stellaadams593 Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumors and here-says, got the best of me 2021 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up $950k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking...
@@davidjackson4437 The investment-adviser I use is actually CLAUDIA TRINIDAD RIVAS, I’m not sure if she’s currently accepting new clients, but you can give it a shot, she’s a popular advisor, so you can make a quick internet research with her name to get in touch...
Credit card debt is at a record level. People are struggling with inflation so it’s not all rosy. The used car market is collapsing because of defaults. Retail stores are closing and Amazon is closing warehouses. Initial unemployment claims are climbing in the majority of states. The percent of working age population that is working is not high at all
There is a reason for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer no matter what happens with inflation and unemployment. The reason is to attract buyers to treasuries when the dollar is being dropped by many nations in trade. Simply put you need higher rates to both keep King Dollar strong and to attract investors to buy treasures so the Fed doesn't have to do so.
Year-over-year inflation stood at 6.5% in December 2022-the lowest that figure has been in more than a year. Inflation was in line with what economists expected and gave many of them a reason to believe that the peak of inflation may be behind us. I have approximately $150k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
@Phil Stones Please can you leave the info of your invstment analyst here? I overheard someone talking about how a couple made $200k during this red season. I need such luck lol
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
The lowest unemployment rate in the history of the US was in 1953 at 2.5%.The following quarter after posting this record low rate the US went into recession.
'Full employment' (cough cough part time) and the rapid and excessive expansion of credit card utilization point towards people getting multiple low value gigs just to get by- they are struggling, not prospering. That is why the employment numbers are not a great stand alone measurement for the strength of the economy. The Fed has used this measurement to guide policy in the opposite direction of what is needed many times before- most recently leading into 2007. The same divergence in the household employment survey and the establishment survey was observed then, and we know which one was accurate. The two-point mission statement the Fed is given is obsolete and needs to be rewritten. As we have observed, often times the Fed, using the 'tools' it has available, is not able to avoid an inverse effect by chasing one or the other. This causes switching from one extreme to the other, which is not conducive for long term SUSTAINABLE growth.
I think US bond interest rates have more to climb. Rates are bouncing off a 40 year low.. And who says the rest of the world is going to have the same appetite for the USA as in the past.
Until there’s a better alternative, USA reigns. They’re not doing themselves any favors with their imperial foreign policy, but there needs to be somewhere else to go. I’m sure that will come along as it’s been ridiculously incentivized now, but it’s not there yet.
Has the inflationary pressure eased & will move to 2 percent in 2023. Is recession always disinflationary? Or this time even after few quarters in recession inflation stays at 5-6 percent till end of 2024.
Hi Alfonso, Where do you stand on the Warren Mosler view that Interest Rate rises will feed money from the goverment to bond holders causing the price of Financial Assets to increase??
Many of those home owners with locked in low rates has taken out HELOC loans to access their equity.Those HELOCs are variable adjusting rate loans.Some have really run up their loans like an ATM.
Unemployment claims statistics: These might be completely outdated - a left-over of the blue-color working era. The massive layoffs in tech-industry with all the termination-compensations might trigger very different behavior. These newly unemployed white-color experts might then take a quarter timeout for ‘reflection’ as they are typically sitting on good reserves. Then, after some months, they might find out that the job market is not ‘red-hot’ any longer. Still, I doubt that this new type unemployed will ever file a traditional unemployment claim.
Speaking of my own experience, the UI office is a waste of time. They require a shotgun strategy and persistence to the extent that the time spent on their process is better spent working without a job.
Credit Suisse is a buy.They will never let another bank go down again after Lehmann.When the bailout is announced you could double or triple your money in a day.
16:32 immigration is a tailwind to he who believes there that cultural differences are superficial. Did the nominal immigrants to Germany, go get a job at a factory like Mercede?
Here is the conservative spot to buy TLT. The conservative spot to buy TLT is when the bond yield curve starts to steep and touches the 0 @ neutral value.
![Yeat & Summrs - GO2WORK [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/NEFEwfPcXRA/mqdefault.jpg)
Rock star Monday morning. Thanks guys.
SIMP
I'm not even kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it, Investing is a long-term game, so I try to focus on the long term.
I cannot focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 4years, you see l've got good companies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/ unstable market doesn't provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue wetting profit especially in a down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
I completely agree, I have been consistent with my profit regardless of the market conditions, I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2020 this time with guidance from an investment adviser that was recommended by a popular economist on a popular forum, long story short, its been years now and I've gained over $850k following guidance from my investment adviser.
I've been down a ton, I only hold so that I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you
If that is the case, it would be an innovative suggestion to look out for Financial Advisors like Olivia Maria Lucas who can help shape up your portfolio. Trying times are ahead, and good personal financial management will be very important to weather the storm.
I want to invest in the crypto market I need a reliable broker that will help me trade my coin and make profits Any recommendations?
She really made name for herself
A lot of folks have been going on about a March rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth this new year season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
yes, transportation, e-commerce among other sectors are expected to experience growth, but who knows, the market has been a basket of surprises.
@@stellaadams593 Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumors and here-says, got the best of me 2021 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up $950k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking...
@@davidjackson4437 The investment-adviser I use is actually CLAUDIA TRINIDAD RIVAS, I’m not sure if she’s currently accepting new clients, but you can give it a shot, she’s a popular advisor, so you can make a quick internet research with her name to get in touch...
@@kollykolly Found her, I wrote her an email and scheduled a call, hopefully she responds, I plan to start 2023 on a woodnote financially.
One of the most thought provoking discussions I've heard in a long time!
I love hearing Alf's perspective.
Excellent interview!
Credit card debt is at a record level. People are struggling with inflation so it’s not all rosy. The used car market is collapsing because of defaults. Retail stores are closing and Amazon is closing warehouses. Initial unemployment claims are climbing in the majority of states. The percent of working age population that is working is not high at all
There is a reason for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer no matter what happens with inflation and unemployment. The reason is to attract buyers to treasuries when the dollar is being dropped by many nations in trade. Simply put you need higher rates to both keep King Dollar strong and to attract investors to buy treasures so the Fed doesn't have to do so.
28:30 brilliant
ALFONSO SINCE LAST JUNE YOU SPEAK ABOUT BONDS,I SHORTED AND I MADE MONEY.BONDS WHEN FED PIVOT
Great content
59:18 He says we are getting close to where everyone hates bonds, but I thought bonds were more popular at higher rates of interest payed on them?
Alf is a pro. Listen to the man.
Simply brilliant.
So you switched from March/April/May to summer recession?
Thank you Alfonso
Thank you Gentlemen!
Good stuff, guys.
LOL. Silly scam bot. ;)
Year-over-year inflation stood at 6.5% in December 2022-the lowest that figure has been in more than a year. Inflation was in line with what economists expected and gave many of them a reason to believe that the peak of inflation may be behind us. I have approximately $150k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
@Phil Stones Please can you leave the info of your invstment analyst here? I overheard someone talking about how a couple made $200k during this red season. I need such luck lol
@Phil Stones Thank you for this amazing tip. I verified her and booked a call session with her. She seems Proficient
Alf is our messiás, our saviour, our god. Let's oust him.
Good vid.
Legendary pod
Great video. You seem to get a lot more out of Alf than the usual chat with Stenno.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
The lowest unemployment rate in the history of the US was in 1953 at 2.5%.The following quarter after posting this record low rate the US went into recession.
We like to call that mean reversion
What type of bonds exactly are you buying?
Awesome Show ❤Thank You Both
'Full employment' (cough cough part time) and the rapid and excessive expansion of credit card utilization point towards people getting multiple low value gigs just to get by- they are struggling, not prospering. That is why the employment numbers are not a great stand alone measurement for the strength of the economy. The Fed has used this measurement to guide policy in the opposite direction of what is needed many times before- most recently leading into 2007. The same divergence in the household employment survey and the establishment survey was observed then, and we know which one was accurate. The two-point mission statement the Fed is given is obsolete and needs to be rewritten. As we have observed, often times the Fed, using the 'tools' it has available, is not able to avoid an inverse effect by chasing one or the other. This causes switching from one extreme to the other, which is not conducive for long term SUSTAINABLE growth.
With SVB Powell might have to start thinking about holding rates for a while, don't you think?
Not a luxury he has...
What duration tho?
How are 10yr bonds staying subdued? Market drops.....they drop!
I think US bond interest rates have more to climb. Rates are bouncing off a 40 year low.. And who says the rest of the world is going to have the same appetite for the USA as in the past.
Until there’s a better alternative, USA reigns. They’re not doing themselves any favors with their imperial foreign policy, but there needs to be somewhere else to go. I’m sure that will come along as it’s been ridiculously incentivized now, but it’s not there yet.
Markets are humbling. Chatgpt analysis of “Mike Wilson” thesis but No discussions on risks hiding in plain site. SVB
alf got no idea....
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this very informative content cheers Frank
LOL
thanks Frank!!
Has the inflationary pressure eased & will move to 2 percent in 2023.
Is recession always disinflationary? Or this time even after few quarters in recession inflation stays at 5-6 percent till end of 2024.
Alf the BEST.
How government is tightening fiscal policy? So not giving stimulus is tightening??
Not in an inflationary recession they don’t
good point
Bonds will do well when the cut interest rates. But Gold and gold stocks will do much better.
Are we all going to die ? Yes !
You know what's funny? Thr FED will still not pause or cut until mid or late 2024 even with a Recession year
Wow,"talk about confusing terms". I still feel as "in the dark", as I did when I started listening to this.
Hi Alfonso,
Where do you stand on the Warren Mosler view that Interest Rate rises will feed money from the goverment to bond holders causing the price of Financial Assets to increase??
Bonds bottomed in October last year. Market forward prices so, do not be the bag holder Alf.
RECESSION? ZERO CHANCE. STOCKS NEVER GO DOWN
I feel like we are already in recession.
love you alf. The other guys thinks he knows but knows nothing lol
Many of those home owners with locked in low rates has taken out HELOC loans to access their equity.Those HELOCs are variable adjusting rate loans.Some have really run up their loans like an ATM.
So recession in June 2024. Till then, party on 🎉
June 2023, actually.
Guys, US GDP is over 3% well within historical range for a normal not recessionary year. Random, disconnected discussion.
Most people do not know that trading is the best step to growing more income, realized this after I came across Mrs jennifer Ronald
Alf has been consistently wrong so far. And uncommonly unlucky too.
you forgot to tell what was he wrong about
it makes difference between useless opinion and constructive fact provision
Unemployment claims statistics: These might be completely outdated - a left-over of the blue-color working era. The massive layoffs in tech-industry with all the termination-compensations might trigger very different behavior. These newly unemployed white-color experts might then take a quarter timeout for ‘reflection’ as they are typically sitting on good reserves. Then, after some months, they might find out that the job market is not ‘red-hot’ any longer. Still, I doubt that this new type unemployed will ever file a traditional unemployment claim.
Speaking of my own experience, the UI office is a waste of time. They require a shotgun strategy and persistence to the extent that the time spent on their process is better spent working without a job.
It didnt happen.
Credit Suisse is a buy.They will never let another bank go down again after Lehmann.When the bailout is announced you could double or triple your money in a day.
16:32 immigration is a tailwind to he who believes there that cultural differences are superficial. Did the nominal immigrants to Germany, go get a job at a factory like Mercede?
Unless they are defaulted upon like the ones China did
Jack talking too much..let your guests talk
And SVB and Signature fail !!!
Do not understund almost nothing that italian guy talking about
Well, if inflation is going up, it's kinda moronic to buy bonds. 🤦
Here is the conservative spot to buy TLT. The conservative spot to buy TLT is when the bond yield curve starts to steep and touches the 0 @ neutral value.
This recession is taking it’s sweet-ass time to get here…it’s been a few months away for like 2 years
Narrative built of flawless forecasting assumptions built upon market timing and instant return to perceived equilibrium. What could go wrong?
Th bald will be proven wrong !!!! Recession starts in September, 2023 !!!
Fed doesn’t want inflation to go down and it’s clear in the way of their behavior!!!!