Breaking Down this RISKY Play at $2/$5 No Limit Hold'em
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- Опубликовано: 4 авг 2024
- Sometimes it is proper to turn a hand with some showdown value into a bluff, like top pair. In today's call in a situation come up where the Hero has the opportunity to do so. Will he pull the trigger and is it proper in this $2/$5 hand?
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0:00 - Intro
0:46 - Preflop
2:16 - Flop
2:49 - C Bet Bluffing Matrix
4:02 - Turn
11:37 - River
15:44 - Hero Decision
16:13 - Same bet
14:37 - Reveal
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Игры
This is a spew IMO. Caller was fortunate to run into a rec player that actually has a fold button.
This is kinda my opinion of the hand as well. This would not work with the stations that I play with
Hmm… yeah kinda. Because of spr… but then again it’s the perfect bluff if can put him on that exact hand. Also the jam looks so nutted that is kinda the perfect bluff🤔👍👍👍
He played against a terrible opponent. He was very very lucky. At least nine times out of ten you aren't getting a fold with a spew shove. Villain should have snapped... called.😂
It's a good move if you know the player. But that isn't going to work around the call boxes I play with.
In the games I play nobody is ever folding a straight...hard enough to get them to fold 1 pair...
You have to love a player that can't fold top pair, shit kicker.
Lucky you to play in such soft games.
@1vailchris there is a reason I drive 1.40 hrs from out of state and pay 9$ in tolls to play there. Bluffing only works if you use small value bets. You just bet when you feel your a head and take your lumps as they come. But getting 3 streets of value with an Ace big kicker is pretty easy.
@@danielmeuler2877 Jesus. That drive though! Even before they opened card rooms here in Philly and I had to drive to AC, it might only take me an hour and twenty minutes. Now I'm screaming at the steering wheel if it takes me longer than half an hour to get to whatever card room I'm headed for. You've got more patience and persistence than I do, my friend.
@@1vailchris its the same distance to drive to the only running card room in my state but it is a Shitty room not worth the drive. Northern Illinois has a lot of easy money. But I feel the drive the next day.
Am I allowed to think this hand was played terribly? I understand if I’m wrong here.
You are not wrong.
you're allowed to. they both played terribly.
Fold turn after check-raise. Raise is so small he wanted a call. River bet so small he wants a call. Got lucky to blow him off a straight
You're allowed. Hero's 2.5x open first-to-act is asking for trouble. So is his 70% c-bet sizing and 80% turn bet, followed by his call. I'm not sure if V should be defending his straddle as wide as 97o, or calling the flop, and I don't know what to think about his turn x/r. The river is the only street where I think both players' decisions were reasonably correct.
Hero played it terribly. If villain knew what he was doing it was a great line to get a spaz shove and snap it off. But yeah both were awful.
not sure i follows hero's turn logic here. he described opponent as passive and thinks his turn checkraise is 'value heavy'. but he also doesnt think he has a set or two pair. so you basically think he always has straights here. then why are you saying things like "im getting almost 4 to 1" and "i feel like i could potentially be beat". im not great at pot odds, but im thinking 4:1 is probably not good enough if youre drawing dead. also, if all he has is straights, we may wanna change the "i could potentially be beat" thing to 'i pretty much never have any outs.' maybe you just didnt articulate your thoughts properly bc of the awkwardness of being on air describing a poker hand, idk, but yeah this doesnt make a lot of sense.
as far as the river bluff goes, definitely a great runout to bluff if you think he always has a straight on the turn (which ofc brings us to the circular logic of why are we calling in the first place if thats the case). your betting line does look a lot like it could be a set or the nfd. the other part of this beyond just board texture is will he actually fold? and thats where him being an unknown kinda hurts you. your read is passive. but a lot of passive players can't fold. others are just scared to put money in without the nuts so idk. this could be a great river bluff or an awful one depending on this particular villains' stickiness.
The logic isn't obviously consistent or entirely coherent. V's turn x/r is repping JT at worst, so hero would be drawing to 3 outs at best, and could be drawing dead against a straight. To call turn, hero has to either think V is capable of folding to a bluff on some rivers, or calling with a worse 2P if hero spikes an A. Hero's path to victory is very narrow. It's basically spike an A and hope V has JT, or catch the 8c or 4c, and hope V believes hero rivered a flush or boated up (or made a bigger 2 pair), and that V is capable of laying down 2P or a straight on a scary runout.
I really think the turn should just be a fold. Hero's only got 3 outs against top 2, and even then he's probably still losing, and only 2 really good bluff cards. He's only got about a 10% chance of catching one of those 5 cards he needs, and even if he does, there's a chance V jams river from up front and hero will have to fold.
I'm happy things worked out for the caller. Sometimes we play against people who are scared money, or drunk, or just not good at poker. This hand to me is very "results oriented". It worked. Was it a good play though? In my opinion it was not. I would have folded on the turn most of the time. It's just so hard for us to get a good river card. The 4 of clubs was quite lucky & especially lucky since villain had no clubs. A jack is already unlikely & if this raise had been from JT or a set, it would be a disaster. An ace does us no good if villain has a straight & if as Bart points out this had been 97cc or Q9cc then the ace of clubs is a disaster.
BTW; 97 was the first thought in my head when villain raised the turn.
I'm inclined to agree. I was putting V on 97 when he x/r'd turn. V is never folding on a brick river. If hero has Q9, V is just going to pay him off. Hero is going to have a hard time folding if the river is a J or A. In order to call the turn x/r, hero has to A) put V on 97 specifically, B) assume it's not 9c7c, C) pray for a river that's both a club and pairs the board, D) have a plan to bluff on a board-pairing club, and E) be very confident V is going to fold getting 3:1 odds, or just think V is over-playing 2P and is going to check river a lot. I don't know that I'd think either scenario would be very likely if I'm in hero's spot. He got very lucky with this specific river card, which really only improves his range, and does nothing for V's.
You think 9 7 raises way bigger.
@@mrhumble2937 Your post reads weird. Who is the "you" that is the first word of the sentence?
At any rate, I don't see why 97 must raise bigger. It might, but it might not. It does not particularly want fold equity.
@@mrhumble2937 hero bet 70% pot on flop and >80% on turn. If V raises bigger he's folding out a lot of hero's worse hands and probably only getting called by Q9 or hands with decent equity to improve on the river.
i really like that QJs take! that might be my favorite too for the reasons described. Never put it together
Also all the straights are nutted straights
Would like to sign up for the thirsty Thursday piece not sure how
"I think he has a value hand but my price is so good to hit almost no equity" what difference is the price to realize equity if you have almost none? Horribly played
pre and flop is fine. the rest is terrible. trying to get a low stakes fish to fold a five card hand is gonna be a losing play in general, particularly when the raise isn't even that big. the river bet sizing also does not mean he is weak. if you're gonna turn a hand into a bluff some 2p hand where both your cards interact with the board would be much better. this is def just a punt
$25 raise under the gun in our local game might be a family pot in 1/3
I agree with the river not being a good play, for the reasons pointed out on the call, but the turn call seems ok. There’s not a one in 5 chance (or whatever it is) this is a bluff?
The pot odds on the river DO NOT MATTER! In these low stake games the players are NOT calculating the odds and therefore they are NOT making their decision based on odds!!!
Yeah they do just not in the way Bart is communicating it. Countless times I’ve seen Regs and Recs who see how much they’ve put in via the amount of chips piled in the middle that acts as a strong visual variable. Then they look at their stack and think “look how little I have might as well put the rest in and see what he has” or even “I’m behind but I can’t fold I have so much in there” knowing full well they’re losing but will do it anyways.
I like the river play... but calling turn to get lucky enough to get a good card to bluff with is a bit ambitious. Drawing dead to all straights should have been more of a consideration on the turn, besides the fact that you're pretty sure you're beat in some way with everything hes doing that with. But once you get bailed out on the river and pulled the trigger, I like that. Interesting hand with a lot of interesting concepts to explore.
If he calls turn with sole intention of bluffing a nut changing river, the math would be interesting. This assumes that villain makes the river bet. There are 20 favorable cards that could come on the river. Anything that pairs the board and any club. About 40% of the time that would happen. He is risking $135 to see the river. So 60% of the time he doesn't get the chance to bluff river which costs him $81 (60% * $135.) The 40% of the time he does get a favorable card on the river, he needs to win at least 64% of the time to be profitable.
I used expected value=(%win * $win) - (%lose * $lose)
ev=(.64 * $865) - (.36 * $950) = $211.6 * .4=$84.64 which is greater than the -$81 from calling turn.
If my math is right then, if villain has a full house or calls with a straight more than 36% of the time, it becomes -ev.
@@AT-bw4cm The problem is that even if the river is a card hero can credibly bluff, he may not get the chance if V jams from up front. And this is all assuming V isn't semi-bluffing with a hand that's just going to check-fold on a brick, and that V's capable of folding his value hands after his turn x/r, even if hero bluffs on a scary runout. It's hard to find hands V can have that hero is ahead of on turn. It's mostly just QJ and Ac9c.
Hero's drawing thin if V's raising with 2p, and drawing almost dead against a straight, especially if V's got a re-draw to the flush. Even if we catch perfect with the 8c or 4c on the river, if V was slow-playing 88/44 on flop, or V has Ac9c, it's a disaster when hero jams. His river jam is really just targeting 97 and Q9 with no clubs, but some opponents are still going to call when he's laying them 3:1.
@@1vailchris Did you reply to the wrong post? I was doing an exercise in math of hero calling turn knowing he is beat with the intention of bluffing a nut changing river. Meaing he's not calling thinking he might be ahead or that he has outs to make a hand.
Villain was stated as passive. Passive players don't overbet rivers, especially when they min click turns. Passive players like to draw cheap they are unlikely to c/r turn with a draw especially min click. I think villain can have some full houses. Read the last line of my post.
@@AT-bw4cm I didn't reply to the wrong post. I was replying to yours. I appreciate the effort you put into doing the math to figure out the ev. I wasn't disagreeing with you, just pointing out what I see as a flaw in hero's logic, which leads to your exercise in math.
The logic in hero calling turn with the intention to bluff the river is relying upon several assumptions that may not hold up. Villain may jam from up front, taking away hero's opportunity to bluff. Villain may not believe hero's line or be willing to fold his hand. The cards hero might bluff might actually improve V's hand.
In a past exchange, I believe you told me I put too much weight in callers' descriptions of opponents, yet you seem to be doing the same thing here, focusing in on hero's description of V as passive. Simply being described as "passive" doesn't mean V is never jamming river from up front, or just never betting large enough that hero has no fold equity if he raises as a bluff.
@@1vailchris Does it make any logical sense to click c/r turn and then nearly 2x pot bet the river. Overbets are rare from aggressive players let alone some average rec.
Let the board do your dirty work. I mean he's in the straddle so he could have suited clubs but it's only a few combos. you're worried about him in the straddle how often do you wind up with you know such a good hand in a straddle?
Another thing is when you went all-in did you have a stacks of reds to make it look like more?
Nice situational awareness by hero here. I disagree with Bart that V's check-raise size is always the nuts. At the lower stakes, V's bet sizing suggests a strong yet not-quite-the-nuts hand, like 97. A nutted hand like Qc9c is going to just donk-lead or x/r for a larger size. Perfect river card to bluff. Hero could have a boat, a flush, or the nut straight.
9:20 I believe you're beat here (Turn).
I think if he had clubs we definitely hear about it on the turn.
This is a wild fucking move
Nice improvised bluff on the end... I think it would only work if you have a nitty image since it's so unexpected. He's simultaneously unlikely to be bluffing you, but if stacks are deep enough he should respect a jam. But you better be real confident he isn't just betting small with 88 / TT because he thinks you have very few redraws.
However the logic is all over the place about what the turn check-raise means.
You say he doesn't expect 2-pair hands or sets to have check-raised so small, but that it leans value. You say all these things you think he doesn't have, but not what you think he actually has. So that leaves straights or mayyyybe AJ / KJ / QJ that floated the flop with backdoors and is getting weird? Or some kind of combo draw that is planning to bomb most rivers and hope you level yourself.
It’s funny he snap folds and I wouldn’t be able to get my money in fast enough . Getting three to one I’m never folding to a runner runner flush .
What about a river that completes a flush and also pairs the board? You're calling with the dumb-end of the straight, facing an all-in jam after your opponent called your x/r on the turn? V's 97o is losing to Q9, a flush, and boats.
@@1vailchris sets don’t play that way and I’m blocking q9 .
@@jtome84-91 How would sets play? Hero bet 70% pot on flop. Seems like a good size if he flopped a set. Then he bet over 80% pot on turn. Again, seems like a good size if he turned a set. But when V x/r's the turn, how is a set supposed to be played? Seems like it's just a flat call to me. Was he supposed to jam with 44/88/JJ/TT, unblocking all of V's turned straights, but heavily blocking V's turned top 2 pair?
Yes, 97o partially blocks Q9, but there are still 3 combos of Q9s available to hero. And since 97 does reduce the number of Q9s combos, hero's range becomes more weighted towards a flush draw that got there, or a set that boated up on the river. As played, when the flush comes in AND the board pairs, I'm not excited to get my money in with the dumb end of the straight.
@@1vailchris run it through a solver see what it comes up with .
@@jtome84-91 people aren't solvers.
I dont think the player type that is check raising that size or using that river size is thinking in terms of the price he is getting laid vs a river shove.
It's almost never going to work no matter how much of a nit Kyle is.
Had the villain been the caller everyone would suggest it's a fold with the straight
think about it
I find it hard to believe with all the calling stations at 2-5 Parx. That is the nuts. What’s he saying A8 of clubs ? That all that beats him
Kyle could have a boat here. JJ/TT/88. V can't beat a boat, can't beat a flush, and doesn't have the nut straight. As played, V's bet sizing would allow hero to continue with a wider range. Seems like V was just scared money.
@@1vailchris and he just calls the turn raise ? Really
@@rppoker8541 Yes, because on the turn all he'd have is a set, and he could be losing to a straight. Why raise in that spot? If I flop or turn a set on a board with a completed straight or flush draw, I'm not going to just blast off when my opponent x/r's me.
@@1vailchris so your playing scared money ? Why be afraid of 1 hand ? 🧐
@@rppoker8541 Scared money? It's not a dick-measuring contest. Look at the board, and give hero JJ/TT. It would be almost impossible for V to be x/r'ing with JT in that scenario. If V doesn't have JT, what hand are you giving him on the turn, when he x/r's? If he isn't x/r'ing with JT, he's probably got a straight. And in fact, V did have a straight here, which was pretty obvious by his x/r.
It would be insane to raise with JJ/TT there, when you can only get called by better, never by worse, and you only have a ~20% chance to boat up on the river. The 4c on the river is the perfect card for hero to bluff because it brings in a flush and it turns any sets into a boat, so V can't call a raise with just the dumb end of the straight.
Should just jam the turn
If he did he loses.
You mean the villain right? I still don't think that's a good play. If you meant the hero, then I assume you're trolling.
@@EllieBanks333 the hero
If hero jams turn, he's repping Q9s and only Q9s, which V is partially blocking with 97o. Hero would only have 3 combos of Q9 available. V is never folding 97 on the turn. V probably isn't folding a slow-played set (88/44) on turn. V probably isn't even folding JT on turn. Hero's only chance to win is to flat call turn and jam river on a nut-changing runout.
@@1vailchris yeah. I ran the sim. Hero should jam turn