Alex answers your questions about the war in Ukraine - Geopolitics with Alex Stubb
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- Опубликовано: 25 июл 2024
- In this episode, Alex Stubb answers a selection among the many questions that our viewers asked in reaction to recent episodes of Geopolitics with Alex Stubb. Over the last few months you have posted thousands of comments and questions, and Alex appreciates your feedback a lot!
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Can I say how much I have enjoyed your rational, honest, sometimes uncomfortable but always thoughtful comments
Yes you get the feeling that a rational discussion is the most easy, calming thing in the universe! Its is the most beautiful counterpoint to social media!
Indeed! Thanks again Alex
I agree with you
Honest? Being a Finn, I don't think so.
thank you good sir's for all you do from a American. there are no winners in war just tears and ashes.
Keep your videos coming! Much appriciated
We have passed the point, where what is troubling Europe, indeed with far wider reaching implications, is an unknown quantity. Dealing with the future and, other meaningful aspects of our worldly issues (putting the Russo-Ukranian war to oneside momentarily), world affairs with Alex Stubb has been really interesting and I will be following everyone's questions, answers and your unswerving interest too! We all want a healthy, stronger world! A U.K. Londoner. 🌿
i do have a question... i'd like his assessment of the u.n. security council membership.... this question concerns the assumption by russia of the ussr seat/membership/position on u.n security council.... the background is that the general assembly never voted on the issue of russian assumption of that seat... china's replacement of taiwan's seat on the security council was voted on by the general assembly and thus followed a lawful prescribed protocol but the russia assumption never did and was only accepted by the other security council members based on a letter directed to them by yeltsin ... seems like that issue has somehow been stalled and ignored within the u.n.... seems like other nations with more potential international sway and population than russia would have the ability to provide more positive guidance for the betterment of international cooperation and relations than russia... so my question is what is his assessment as to why the u.n ignores that fact ?
I greatly appreciate your commentary about the dynamic events happening around us, and your insights have provided for some very engaging dinner conversation. Thank you, Professor Stubb!
Always a pleasure to listen to an intelligent man!
Great video. Thank you Alex.
Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
Love your videos. Keep it coming!
You are THE MAN that is able to change the world for better! Much respect!
I always look forward to your "mini lectures". So much to learn but talk about an opportunity.
Thank you Alex for your thoughtful discussions - I always learn so much from you.
I am, Beyond happy to have found this channel. And I am beyond happy that the initiative to form this school and share it with the world is happening. I’ve always dreamed about the outside world, traveled, and tried to keep up to date on the broad world affairs. My dream has always been to be a diplomat, and I hope to one day become it. I just have to finish my teachers degree first!
Thank you Alex for taking the time to answer our questions. Very helpful and informative.
Thank you Alex for your clarity, knowledge, and maturity in cases where you're not jumping to conclusions so easily!
I do love your talks from informational perspective as anyone else, however the best thing, in my opinion, is your presentation. Could you elaborate on that, whats your though process like, how do you construct these well informative arguments in such simple and engaging way. You do remind me late Christopher Hitchens, regarding style of speech and precision of arguments.
Great discussion and insights,
Thanks!
Thank you for this detailed, well-founded analysis.
Love your videos Alex, i really enjoy them...
I think you provided in a very necessary action, explaining the war because that was very usefull. Hence the amount of people that watched.
Thank you good Sir for your valuable insight.
Fresh air! Thx👍
Thanks Alex for another enlightening perspective. It is a joy to listen when there are good people with reasonable thoughts
Love u, tnx for ur explanations.
Very interesting series
Thank you.
Interesting, thanks.
Thank you Alex
Your In depth analysis of world affairs is a treat for the thinking person
Thank you Alex and team!
I think the community would agree: we are happy to have baffled you! Yall make thoughtful, well researched content. Amazing job so far
Thanks again for your insightful, considered and non-partisan views. There is much to digest in your videos, much appreciated and please continue.
from New Zealand , great vid. thank you.
Hello Alex, would you be covering video about the Strategic values NATO gained with the entrance of Finland & Sweden into the organization?
We could be in it for strategic nihilism instead. Values are boring.
That aside, now NATO can actually operate safely in the Baltic. No need to ramp up forward presence to a ridiculous degree in order to maintain credible defense in the region, reduced risk of war on that flank.
@@johanlofgren7081 And an army that could secure northern Norway.
Be biggest strategic change is that the Baltic NATO members are no longer at the end of a long and tenuous line from the rest of the alliance. With Sweden and Norway, the Baltics are much more securely "seated" in NATO.
I think Belarus could be made allied to Ukraine , maybe closer relations to
view Russia as their main threat.
Finland and Sweden still didn't entrted NATO. Turkey is blocking their entrance
Shout out to your cinematographer, Andre! From one professional to another, you’ve done a good job. Lighting and composition: 👍.
I’m glad that Alex makes the distinction between Ukraine and Russia’s war and the larger conflict between Russia and Western Democracies (and really, most of the world that wants to live in peace). I think Ukraine will achieve its main goal of ejecting the Russians from its borders, but other goals such as reparations, war crimes accountability, and releasing hundreds of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainians will have to be negotiated in a peace agreement that involves Europe and NATO. The sort of total victory over Russia that is required to achieve those goals isn’t realistically attainable.
And that is directly tied into the larger conflict between Russia and the Western democratic powers, who are waging an economic war in support of Ukraine. Short of WWIII and nuclear war, this is going end up in stalemate even if Russia is severely damaged by the war and the economic war.
The West has a window of opportunity to damage Russian power holistically. (Russia is doing much of the work itself.) Russia will rebuild once it is no longer in armed conflict with Ukraine, but the more damage it suffers now, the longer that rebuilding process will take.
Loved this!
Love these videos. Would love to see a series in brexit and future of Europe
You shouldn't be baffled at the response to your insightful commentary. Thanks for this, Prof Stubb.
How does Turkiye work into all of this? Especially their stances with/against both Europe, Nato (and Sweden), Russia, the Middle East etc.
Thank you for a great episode! I feel like your series is a lighthouse in the storm which is today. And you have made me very interested in geopolitics. I've read a lot since I first started listening to these episodes. So thank you very much, and please keep recording them.
🦃
Not turkiye but 🦃🦃🦃
Thank you for saying your mind, i like the way you think.
One of the best geopolitical commentaries I have seen so far and this is saying something since I've been obsessively reading and watching materials on this topic for the last 8-10 years. Congrats Alex and respect for your viewers for insightful questions finally at a level that properly stimulates the discussion. I am new here, so I will be taking a look at other videos, but I have enjoyed this one a lot. Thank you!
Good video, Sir. Thanks.
You are a true world leader.
Thank you and the team for putting out such great content! Slava Ukraine.
( 'Slava Ukraine' is Bandera's Ukrainian people Nazi salute from ww2 - educate yourself at least as much to know what you are saying : )
@@elbibwen3019 Stalin and all the following leaders of the USSR and Russia have spent a lot of time and effort to brand all Ukrainian independence supporters as Nazis, which means repeating this nonsense means you either ignore history or you are paid by the Kremlin, which one is it?
@@elbibwen3019 You need education - no Russian propaganda. 🥱
very enjoyable prospective
It’s a pleassure to listen to someone with steep knowledge of history and pragmatic view of world events…it makes Alex truly exeptional speeker.
For you who have questions about Putin and russian behaviour, I'm recommending Vlad Vexler's channels. He has very deep insights into russianism.
I VERY MUCH SECOND THAT. For russian background, also check out the Finnish intelligence officer that Alex recommends.
You've recommend a biased pro Ukraine individual. That's not a balanced view of Russia and Putin.
Thank you for the humility with which you deliver your insights. They’re better informed than anything else I’ve found on the issues you cover, so please keep the content coming as I believe it will age well on this channel.
Quality is appreciated, many commenters appear to be not only well educated and informed, but students of international relations.
The early parts helped explain the apparently senseless act of Vladolf Putin, when there was much confusion and propaganda trying to exploit a knowledge deficit that we had.
Plus points for "Vladolf Putin".
I'm stealing that, sue me.
Don't forget bottom of barrel of the comment section is filled with Russian sympathizer and paid bot
@@Zoroff74 you're welcome to it and Pootin & Pootinazi too!
People use Vladolf Putler but the name Butler is too close so the spelling needs a change for English speakers
Thank you for your efforts and work in informing people about this terrible war.
Just noticed a small detail, in the intro segment of your videos there are only the voices of Biden and putin.
Why wouldn't Zelensky - Ukrainian voice not be presented in the intro?
My guess is that they didn't consider it during script - writing
Because a puppet does not have a voice of its own. Presenting a puppeteer is enough already.
@@15026811 If the US is the puppeteer to the Ukrainian puppet, then it was Putin who picked up the puppet, put it into the hands of the US and encourage the US to play. Alas, it's Russia that is getting hit with the slapstick in this Punch and Judy show.
Thank you very much! Your videos are amazing. Could you please cover Azerbaijani and Armenian conflict?
I don't know much about Finland but at this time I feel that the country's number 1 export is Alexander Stubb.
Can you please get in touch with Russel Brand and go on his podcast PLEASE !!!!
I am from Finland and I can't say I was impressed by your political career, but i'm very impressed by your academic activity. You do'nt " sotkeudu lillukanvarpuihin " that is don't see the forest because of the trees. There are too many commentators that think for example the battle for Bakhmut is somewhat decisive in the outcome of war. You don't make too quick conclusions on mr. Putins behavior or decisions, actually, nobody knows his goals or motivations. Most of us need calm, educated and simple approach on the matter. Keep up the good workshop, Alex !
What do you think about Norway and the Faroes renewing their fishing industry co-operation deal with Russia?
I'm Italian. I can only dream that our politicians have half the understanding, honesty of opinion, and capacity for analyzing that you display
Hi in Italy we have a great problem with an professor called Orsini , could you lissen some of his logical traps for sustain Russia and give a feedback? Thanks
Dear Alex,
thanks for mentioning my name (as the first one!) and responding to my question. Let me insist on my point.
We in the West like to play all this 'democracy winning over autocracy' game, and yes, I'm all on the side of democracy. But Russia thinks in terms of 19th century Big power politics and it's ready to go to enormous lengths to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. This thinking is of course autocratic (I could add more derogatory adjectives), but that's the way it is.
Given this determination, and given Russia's military arsenal, isn't it wiser to negotiate with them NOW, before the conflict escalates?
Greetings from Slovenia and thanks for your effort!
Zoran
Russia lacks the military capability to achieve its political goals in Ukraine. The use of nuclear weapons would not change that calculation. So negotiations should wait until Ukraine is in a better strategic position.
@@Rob_F8F Thanks Rob for your input. May I ask exactly how do you know that Russia lacks the military capability? Their poor military performance does not mean they won't use some other weaponry. In fact, I am terrified to think what will Russia come up with once they realize they can't achive their goals in Ukraine via conventional forces. JFK said already in the 1960s that it's never a good idea to push a nuclear power into a corner
@@zoranlevnajic2089 Russia has committed elements of all of its Ground Forces units in Ukraine and they have gotten so depleted that they can only hold defensive positions. The conscripts are not being adequately trained and, by defidnition, not experienced enough to carry out offensive operations.
Russia has used its latest tanks (save T-14), strategic bombers, hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, attack helicopters and tactical jets to no real gain. There are no weapons that Russia is holding back except nukes.
As for nukes, small nukes would make a difference and big city busters would trigger WW3.Putin may be evil, but he's not suicidal.
Here's a short video on the state of the Russian military: ruclips.net/video/0KiII_2qabk/видео.html
Russian forces are indeed exhausted according to all insights, in terms of both people and hardware. Conscription efforts testify that best. But that's exactly why they might consider nuclear option. After tens of thousands of dead solders on their side, I find it unlikely that they will retreat (and leave the conquest for another opportunity). It is more likely that they will double down with all they can. That's what horrifyes me.
Hello again Alex and coworkers,
I thank you for your comments on my thoughts in the Q&A-video.
There is one thing that I still think might be important and was not mentioned.
I am thinking about the unwillingness of the west to help Russia transitioning from socialistic to marked liberal economy. My argument is that if Russia would have been allowed to prosper economically we might never have seen Putin climb to power.
Kiitos ja tack, Alex. Pleasure to listen to you. I think Finland did a great job with a streamlined NATO application and, hope it will join alliance soon. I am more optimistic about the Ukraine and the results of the war than you are, though. I believe we shall support Ukraine much more with weapons and other materials to finish war sooner.
Keep up making great videos!
- Andrey, Finnish citizen in Switzerland
The war will end when Russia says it is over. Ukraine can't win this struggle. Europe and US can't building ammo and weapons fast enough to change the horrible fate which Ukraine faces
Dear professor Stubb. Thankyou for your videos. I enjoy listning to an intellegent man. What struck me, as so many times before, is people mentioning victory for Ukraine. I have the greates respect and admiration for the brave Ukrainian soldiers. They fight with bravery motivation and skill. But if they succeed in driving the last russian soldier out of Ukraine and Crimea, WIL THE WAR END?? Or wil Putin just go ahead pounding Ukrainian cities, industries and power infrastructure to smithereens. What victory wil that be? At the moment the west-and-the-rest are supporting Ukraine. But what if Eurpean fatique sets in?
The questions from your viewers do address many of today’s important issues surrounding the conflict in Ukraine. For more in depth analyses and historic insight I encourage tuning in to The Duran whose views, also from a European perspective are both broad and detailed.
Yeah....we all need some putinist shills in our life
Duran good they curate the Russian perspective for people in the West
Hi Alex, a fan from China here. Thank you for the fantastic series, I learned a lot! Is there a chance for you to talk about russian economy in the future? All sources kept saying how doomed russian economy must be under sanctions, however, it appears to be much more resilient. I imagin Fins must be quite aware of what happens in russian, I was hoping that you could provide some insight.
I don't speak from point of Fins, but I as you saw all these articles or comments but I also saw sources about not all companies pulling out. sometimes they only partly limit their activity to stay in good graces on surface but they still care about money and when you look more closely they still do some kind of trade with Russia.
*1.) Technological sanctions* are already firmly in place. No high tech going to Russia - smuggling can't replace most things that really matter. ^^
It will make maintenance of any sophisticated industry in Russia extremely hard & expensive - gonna be hurting the economy bad in 6 months to 1 year; extremely bad in 2-3 years, absolutely disastrous in 5 years.
*2.) Trade sanctions* on 40% of Russian income - oil, gas, energy - are ramping up drastically now & in the next 6 months. EU ban, price cap etc., coming up.
While what has been implemented already hurt Russia hard (which Russia is trying to cover up), it's gonna get WAY worse next year.
@@Acinnn I am Russian who escaped to Georgia. I have much respect for your Country. I wish more people would talk with or interview actual Russians who escaped to other Countries. The Russian economy will be not fall overnight. It will be a longer process in my opinion. However, some areas not so much will be affected like the rural areas because they survive mostly like how their ancestors did generations ago with limited resources.
The ones who will be affected are the younger generations who grow up in St. Petersburg and Moscow for example. I also feel Russia is going backward in many areas. Long story there. To say everything right now is so nice and perfect is an outright lie.
Take care.
@@remogatron1010take care as well finding proper place to take refuge in while this whole war plays out.
The assessment that they are doomed is correct, but only in the context of a competitive power. They have rich resources and high subsistence capability, but not at the same technological level. So, the people will not starve, but over time their demographic problems, skill and education problems, sanctions and isolation problems, etc. will take effect and result in a country that becomes increasingly relatively more backward, with quality of life of formerly prosperous russians diminishing. There is also a question of social unrest / degree of totalitarian rule that might accompany these outcomes.
Although it was from July, I still recommend the Yale paper "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy" for proper academic analysis on the topic.
Thank you Alex for your intelligent insight. There's a great deal of fog created within the global media regarding this war so I very much appreciate the clarity you bring. I live in the UK so of course I'm predominantly exposed to western pro Ukrainian talking points. I do though on occasion come across what I can best describe as Russian/Putin apologists & sometimes one or two make some seemingly compelling arguments?. Mostly to do with the Crimea & the Donbas. I've tried to study history in regards to these places to try and understand the historical context of why there's, if true, a strong pro Russian & anti Ukrainian bias there ?. This has proven far more difficult to do than I thought it would be. Fog of history rears its ugly head here. From the Kievan Rus to the long shared history of the USSR & into the middle of that with Stalin & the Holodomor ?. I mentioned the Holodomor last, not just because of historical context but from what I can understand this is where the fog rises the thickest. After the great famine many Russians were relocated there to work the fields and coal mines etc. Hence why the Donbas is so heavily Russian in demographics ?. This would also imply they're only second, third generation & children fourth maybe?. Those alive today think themselves Russian but it's the only home they've ever known. Do they, Russia, Putin have a valid argument ?.
For a future Q&A, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the issue of Poland and Hungary (particularly the latter) in the EU, and how that affects EU expansion. Should the EU change its rules on rejecting exisiting members who don't align with its values?
I would argue that it is a good thing to have dissenting views in an organization. You need to have something to test your ideas against. Find a way to compromise.
@@richardautry8269 I agree, but we're not talking about debates prior to a simple or suoer majority. As the EU is structured, one dissenting voice (a few hundred thousand in amidst hundreds of millions if it's, say, Luxembourg) can derail all progress. It's not unlike NATO in this regard, but it's more serious. If the US required 50 states to agree on expansion or 49 on omissions, nothing would change.
Congratulations to the new President of Finland, Mr Alexander Stubb!
Thanks! One aspect that was not perhaps addressed was the divide between East and West in supporting Ukraine and what this means for European defence on one hand and more US/UK/NATO-oriented trans-atlantic approach on the other hand. Is there a divide? Does the "former EE" (Poland, Baltics, etc... maybe Finland) have a trust-deficit vis-a-vis Germany/France/Italy? Why do so many Italians not realize or acknowledge the threat of Russia? Do we have to fear that Western/Southern Europe will will capitulate or are they holding steady? Why does France think it can lead on EU defence without leading on Ukraine (the most serious security crisis facing us in ages)? For context the Finnish prime minister made some frank comments: Finnish PM Sanna Marin has said Europe is "not strong enough" to stand up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its own, and has had to rely on US support. During a visit to Australia, the leader of the pending Nato member said Europe's defences must be strengthened. "I must be brutally honest with you, Europe isn't strong enough right now," she said. "We would be in trouble without the United States." Do you agree?
Divide between East and West in supporting Ukraine.
Nowhere does this play out more than in the Far East. Japan and South Korea are apart of the political west, but they’ve been skirting around sanctions to continue buying Russian exports.
The US has a harder time controlling countries with minuscule ancestral ties to America.
Even if every country was completely onboard with unlimited support for Ukraine, how long could it last. Western countries de-industrialized decades ago and are running out of armaments to send to Ukraine.
EU official Ursula has admitted there are over 100,000 dead Ukrainian troops. Russia is reinforcing its manpower with a mobilization that will double its troops in Ukraine.
And Ukraine’s infrastructure is being destroyed right now in preparation for the Russian Winter Offensive
Cut the power in Ukraine to welcome the recently mobilized Russians into this theater of war
I see Ukraine being demilitarized within 6-months
@@LeadLeftLeon I think you are underestimating Ukraine's ability to endure and absorb losses. I am of course not Ukrainian but Finland suffered much greater proportional losses in WW2 (8-10x perhaps). So did Ukraine/Soviet Union of course. You are willing to do that to defend your country, culture, way of life and that of your family/kids. It is shameful that some Western countries or allies have less than full-throated support. _But I personally believe there will be enough support to keep things going and to slowly push Russia out. I am watching and making personal judgments of all the countries and people who are flaking. That sort of thing will effect relations going forward...
"Finnish PM Sanna Marin has said Europe is "not strong enough" to stand up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its own, and has had to rely on US support." Europe is not strong enough because they've made a choice not to be strong enough.
@@pekkoh75 Ukraine has a massive Russian population compared to Finland though. Many of the people in these regions being invaded rather be governed by Russia than Ukraine.
@@LeadLeftLeon Maybe let the Ukrainians themselves tell you what they want... Zelensky is "ethnically Russian" for whatever that means in Ukraine right now. I hear that Russian culture and even language has suffered a bit of a setback in Ukraine as of late. Not saying that is desirable but just an indication that people are spontaneously rejecting any notion of belonging to Russia. They are also fighting like hell, and all the polls also indicate that that is what most Ukrainians want (and not be part of Russia). I would leave Ukrainians embracing Russianness to Kremlin propaganda and certain uninformed people who like pointy rockets.
A feel that a more European NATO will encourage the USA to be more involved, not less. This is a good thing.
I really enjoy your discussions, please keep up the good work. I wonder, when Ukraine wins, will the West be as giving to help rebuild? And who will control any funds, considering government corruption before the war?
Assuming a Ukrainian victory, per the definition you provided in this video, what do you foresee for a post-war Ukraine? I’d like to hope for strong integration with the West, Europe in particular, leading to a post-WWII Japan like reconstruction and growth.
The Shape of the World to come is probably more in line with Orwell's 1984, a tri polar hemisphere orientated world with a non aligned competition zone. The question is the center of gravity for each of those 3 blocks.
Comfortable conversation
Hi Alex and all, could you give me your perspective on the interplay between possible consequences to this conflict.
Should Russia manage to keep any part of Ukraine, what would the effective annihilation of the principle of national borders being untouchable entail for other hot spots in the world? I am thinking not only China/Taiwan but also China/India, India/Pakistan, Israel/Palestine and all the ex Soviet Republics? Also should the outcome be somehow advantageous to Russia could you forsee that in the future by simply accumulating a massive invading force on the border of a neighbouring country (without even actually invading) it could cause in that country a major economic collapse and/or a new wave of refugees, basically the same weaponization of refugees as in Syria in 2015. So basically how essential is it for international stability that the outcome of this invasion proves out to be punishing for Russia? And if it is punishing, could it cause even more hatred for the west to incubate an even worse political leader, a bit like German people after the crippling clauses of post WW1 that then fostered the advent of Nazism? Sorry for the very long question but stuff does not happen in a vacuum, there is always something else connected to it, Ciao dall'Abruzzo
For me there is a big subject that hasn't been addressed directly which is how the international power is rebalanced after the war, nd how will be even more rebalanced if Russia looses (as we can expect from the recent outcomes of the war)? How a loose of power will give opportunities to other countries? Big Powers: How US, Europe, China will change their positions? Regional powers: the blockade from Russia will change the situation for Iran Venezuela? Will Europe Yield in some way to Hungary or Serbian demands (Kosovo) in order to get their support?
How the international theatre is going to change because of the war and the (possible) defeat of Russia?.
Thanks
China is the real threat to the US #1 spot. It has the economic might to surpass America. US miscalculated with its fixation on Eastern Europe. Russia like the US is a white Christian nation. Between the US and China, Russia would have preferred being aligned towards America.
Following the fall of the Soviet Union the US was able to plunder Russia as it pleased due to weak leadership. This ended with President Putin, a strongman who understands economics [Russian wage 10X’d under Putin’s rule]. US Deep state has held a grudge against Putin ever since. And US foreign policy towards Russia has been attempts to get rid of Putin. Their aim is to disintegrate the Russian federation to once again plunder Russia for all of her natural resources. Russia is the most natural resource rich country in the world.
We’ll see how Russia’s risk plays out. They’re the first white country to leave Europe and go towards Asia.
Alienating Russia, which pushes her towards China will accelerate China catching up with the US.
China is the businessman. Russia is the soldier
This US miscalculation will strengthen China as did the US covid lockdown miscalculation
As an American I align with you on almost everything. One profound difference is your idea that we can cooperate with the current regime in China.
(Would you suggest we as a global community cooperate with the 1930’s regime in Germany on anything ? )
It’s like people have learned nothing from “cooperating” aka becoming energy dependent on Putin’s regime.
Imagine zero covid on a global scale for as long as you live. That’s essentially what you are asking people to accept with this notion. China has been at war with the free world, they are moving further and further away from cooperation at every opportunity!
👍
It would be tragic for the Russian military if some of the railways feeding troops and materials into the war had some 'maintenance' problems in Russia itself. 😁 Engineering accidents do happen.
Happening on your channel was a pleasant surprise. Your content is clear and thorough, to the point, and of significant value and insight. Instant subscribe for me.
A thought occurs while considering the complexity of finding a path to peace.
Is it possible to make the Ukrainian recovery of benefit Ukraine as well as the world?
If we stretch the imagination of national leadership as well as business, could we collectively envision a Ukrainian recovery so beneficial that participation was even appealing to Russia?
Approximations have been in the range of $500 billion. Much could be done for the future of Ukraine and the world with such finance. Could enough be done to revitalize European economies and simultaneously the green initiative?
It may be unnatural, even uncomfortable, to view such a travesty as an opportunity, but throughout history, there are examples of what rises from the ashes exceeding what was burned, and more importantly, what we lack in viable options to end this war, could be created in our imaginations and communication.
To your well-made point, leadership changes come only from within a country. Is there a possibility to create potential opportunities to motivate more beneficial intentions for those with influence within the nation, even while demonstrating the value of belonging to an organization committed to prosperity rather than colonialism? Can a compelling vision be enough to facilitate peace?
Excellent video. Your perspective is right on target. Looking forward regard the war I believe that if Russia wins and takes Ukraine then in reality it losses and Russia will never be allowed to keep it's gains. On the other hand, if Russia losses and leaves Ukraine, then it will be a winner to some degree as it will get rid of Putin and can start with a slightly clean sheet to build it's quite wealthy country. If Russia wants to improve it's country it needs the rest of the world as I believe it is learning now.
Is Stubbs opinion the official opinion of the "School of Transnational Governance" or why he publish the URL of his employer?
With Russia’s increasing vulnerability, what is to prevent China moving into Manchuria? Or, Finland into the territory lost to the Soviet Union?
Nuke
If Finland’s wish of joining NATO comes true, Finland would become another vassal of the US. Finland would then need the green light from the US to invade Russia.
After seeing what’s being done to Ukraine, Finland wouldn’t bother. US foreign policy will happily sacrifice an ally to wage a proxy war against Russia
The threat of being nuked is too high for Finland to invade Russia. Finland is close to the Russian heartland and near the important city of St Petersburg
Gaining control of the railways might not as dramatic as winning a major battle however, strategically there is no greater prize. Like WW1 and WW2, the railways were essential in moving men and machinery. Nothing could match them...
GAINING CONTROL OF THE RAILWAYS WILL CASTRATE THE RUSSIANS.
Dear Professor Stubb, I want to ask a question about Crimea that I think has received little attention in the current debate about the Ukraine war: Was the Russian invasion of Crimea in any way justified. According to the 2001 population census (see Wikipedia), 60 percent of the Crimean population were ethnically Russian, while only 24 percent were Ukrainian. Was the Russian population dissatisfied with being a part of Ukraine and was it agitating for independence? And what about the population of the Donbas region. What percentage of the population wanted independence or at least greater autonomy? Of course, this does not justify Putin’s use of force to resolve the issue, but could the Kiev government have adopted a more conciliatory approach to Crimea and the Donbas? If they had granted more autonomy to these regions, could the crisis have been avoided? Why did they not organize referenda such as were permitted to take place in Scotland a few years ago? It is probable that the majority of the Donbas population would have opted to remain part of Ukraine, but it is quite possible that Crimea would have voted for independence or even to reunite with Russia. I think it is totally unrealistic to propose that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine as a condition of ending the war. Crimea was never historically part of Ukraine and for 200 years was a part of Russia. The original inhabitants were Tartars, but they unfortunately had largely been forcibly displaced by Stalin. But I am afraid that they are casualties of history. Crimea should remain with Russia and the Donbas and all the other territories captured by Russia returned to Ukraine. That would allow both sides to claim victory.
this is type of risk assignment topic. plan A: if the Russia win plan B : if Ukraina win . plan c: if make something like peace agreement.
"The destiny of the race in this age of crisis and revolution will depend much more on the spirit which we are than on the machinery we shall use"
Thanks Alex!
Does NATO have any red lines - short of a direct attack on NATO - that would it cause it to enter into direct conflict with Russia?
I admit it would be a very tough sell here in the USA .
But it's hard watching Ukraine suffer so much while knowing NATO could drive Russia out.
The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would likely elicit the NATO military response.
Thanks Alex, Do you think the west and all allies are supporting Ukraine enough or do you think there could be more done to help? appologies you have probably covered this,
Why refer to Catherine and Peter the great? Take Ivan the terrible instead! Much more correlations and analogies possible.
I feel the popularity of your show is a result of ordinary people wanting a solid understanding and global view of such insane act from Russia…
We can’t imagine why this is happening to Ukraine and their people and appreciate your insight to bring reason to it
Not yet discussed is the possibility that Ukraine and Russia will be a continuing conflict, perhaps with a ceasefire either at a negotiated point, or at the pre 2014 borders which Ukraine cannot cross without losing NATO support. The situation will become like North and South Korea, a conflict that is approaching the diamond jubilee. Europe will be deprived of Russia's energy resources and Russia will be blockaded and survive on black markets, international crime and weapons sales, even with a diminished defense reputation.
What can destabilize such a stagnant and malignant situation?
Let us face reality, the Soviet Union was headed by Russia even if Stallin was a Georgian, Russia called the shots, in a similar manner in which the USA calls the shots in NATO, they don't always get their way, but if they are strongly against something, it's not happening, so to me it's very clear that Finland was invaded by Russia and lost about 10% of their territory including their direct access to the Arctic Ocean and Finland was pretty much without allies while fighting with the Russian bear. This invasion of Ukraine is not a new tendency for Russia, rather it is the same old, same old, indeed, my Finnish friend's comment to me about the war was that "he is surprized by how so little has changed in how they conduct such wars reflecting on his family's experience with the Soviet Russia army in eastern Finland during the Finno-Russo Winter War.
About not decoupling with China, I’ll look forward to your why I got it wrong with China and Xi in a future episode a few years from now. 😊
I can only see 2 possibilities here in this war.
1) Russia can declare a win by declaring that they have achieved what they intended. This is the easiest since no one knows the objective were initially.
2) The West forced to intensify support and possibly consider long range missile systems- with all the dangers involved this may force Russia to retreat from their positions possibly into Russian boarders.
The first possibility raises the Crimea question.
The Second possibility raises challenges of escalation and Russia will be forced to make tough choices either way.
From the beginning of your STG series on the Russian invasion, I always look forward to your next episode. Your perspectives are always insightful and realistic. As to your comments on whether the west should have been more receptive to granting Russia more credibility going back to around 2008, I offer that with the invasion of Ukraine, and Russia's behavior in previous imperialistic endeavors, they are showing who they really are and how they perceive the outside world. They are inflicting barbaric, "medieval" attacks on innocent civilians and vital infrastructure to a country that was of no threat to Russia; innocent people negotiating everyday life. This conduct, to me, shows their priorities ---- imperialistic bullies with absolutely no regard for life including their own citizens. Their conduct is total anathema to humanity. Their despicable behavior is a reflection of who they really are and any ostensible image they would have projected to the west prior to the invasion would have been counterfeit. They are showing their true colors and what really matters to them. This comportment is incompatible with contemporary civilization. For the future of the world to survive, this form of government must be eliminated in my opinion. For normal people, with any sense of humanity, this ongoing tragedy is truly hard to watch.
His former background as PM of an actual country makes it all the more interesting to invest in
Russia's desire to be a world power, by force if necessary, has always been undermined by its inability to be a world economic power. This has been underscored in two ways. First, when Putin demanded that EU nations that were being blackmailed by Putin via natural gas pay in rubles, a number of countries agreed. The media made quite a show of this but in the end the transactions were made in euros because international banks just don't hold many rubles. Today Russia has been forced to concede that trade with China will be carried out in yuan. People in Russia are beginning to hold accounts in yuan because the ruble is barely used and therefore useless outside of Russia.
Love getting Prof Clarke’s read on a kaleidoscope of action reports. Fixed defenses are not going to win this war. If a smaller fighter has to give some ground to a heavyweight, he must make him pay for wading in. Then, he moves laterally and wears the big guy out. Looks to me like Russia’s gloves are getting heavy.
Therefore, all is not lost - albeit in Ucraine - where the livelihoods of its citizens have been greatly affected liberal democracy and the respect for international law will prevail!
my question is unable to be definitively answered but how would putin have reacted if NATO/the western world had become more involved in the annexation of Crimea? And what diplomatic activities occurred not in public?
@Roger Beck well, maybe this will help : 1) After a 2013-2014 coup in Ukraine then backed by Viki Nuland mr. Yatsenuk stated that Ukraine is not going to prolong a lease for Sevastopol naval port for Russian fleet and be heading towards joining NATO 2) pretty much the same time US Pentagon putting a bid for a contract for building facilities for US NAVY in... Sevastopol ) So, we kinda know how that went
Nuland is awful. She manipulated US foreign policy over an ancestral hatred. Her grandfather lived on land that was screwed by the Soviet Union. US foreign policy isn’t a tool for settling ancestral grudges for ethnic groups that are insignificant to the broader white-American population
I would be very intersted on our take, how the war changes the situation in SE Europe (Western Balkans). Serbia is obviously still trying to sit on two chairs, still banging the war mongering drum.
As a world leader, you should use your heart to win the world, not the weapons.
What's your view on banderas ideology.
Ukrainian Neo-Nazis are an oxymoron. At the end of the day Ukrainians are also Slavs. Nazi ideology placed Slavs at the bottom of the white totem pole.
I wonder how much of Ukraine’s armed forces consist of Neo-Nazis. Western media has brushed this under the rug entirely. But I don’t believe Ukraine is as Neo-nazi as Russia made it out to be either
If Ukraine be willing they should do a Hail-Mary perhaps...
Here is a question in my mind, although it might seem jumping ahead of things a bit. What happens when the Ukraine war comes to an end?
This war has opened my eyes to how barbaric and brutal the Russian Federation can be. It does not recognise the laws and values of the west or the UN Charter. If the war came to an end, I cannot feel it would be right to just return to things as before, so Russia can build for a later aggression to return to again seek its former empire. The sanctions have hurt Europe and the world economy, but I do not feel like they should be lifted, not unless by some miracle of development, Russia decided to abandon the imperial ambitions and become more friendly to Europe and the west genuinely. It is said Russia wanted to secure its borders from potential attack, but that perspective should have been assigned to a bygone age. No country in Europe wanted to invade Russia.
The EU got it right, the peaceful way to prevent future wars on continental Europe was through cooperation and economic ties. IMO.
So what should happen when, if, the Ukraine war comes to an end?
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My very concerns, Sir. See my comment else where on this subject, if you please.
@@johanlofgren7081
The NATO and "victim thing" is hogwash too. On RUclips you can find young Russian children sing "We'll Alaska Back Home", a song about offering their lives in combat for Putin to return the Russian Empire, including Kuril Islands and Alaska.
Aleksandr Dugin, "Foundations of Geopolitics", 1997, asserted Ukraine did not exist as a country and should be annexed back into Russia, this was long before the NATO thing, in fact Russia started to discuss possible NATO membership itself. Ukraine was not in any near time frame going to be in NATO, and in March Zelensky publicly stated Ukraine would not seek NATO membership, but Put-on did not respond "This is what I wanted to hear, we will stop the invasion".
Even if Ukraine did join NATO, there was no reason to believe nuclear weapons would ever have been deployed, and no reason to believe NATO would attack Russia. NATO is 30 members, and all have to agree to go to war, no NATO country, no populations of NATO countries would countenance, aggressively initiating a war with Russia.
However, plenty of Russia elements, not just Dugin, propose a greater Russia or Russian world or returning to A former Russian Empire. Thus, as a defensive organisation, if Russia had aggressive intentions, it is understandable that Russia would resent NATO's opposition.
So Hogwash is an apt description of the reasons for war, which was to "de-nazify" Ukraine, where 1.6% of the population was far right, less a % than in Russia, and none held positions of power. Russia sent two far right brigades to war in Ukraine to fight. against "Neo-nazis", and the Wagner Group is itself far right in origin, named after Hitler's favourite composer. "Neo-nazi is now yesterday's excuse, now it is changed to "western Satanists."
Break up the whole country, make North Asia a thing
Surely it will depend on the manner in which the war ends. I'm not sure anyone can answer definitively about what sort of restrictions will be imposed, but if we are to do a thought experiment on what might be necessary, let's consider a few points:
Assuming the war ends with russia's defeat: reparations should be required from russia, which may take considerable time to repay, and perhaps aside from a few key individuals that the world really needs to see in the Hague, I would argue the best outcome would be 'Truth and Reconciliation'. This model was applied after Apartheid in South Africa and I believe it is important in the case of russia in order for russians to properly hear and come to terms with their actions. Without a national recognition of misdeeds and actually tackling the subject matter, there can never be any meaningful shift away from the russian imperialist mindset that will predispose them to future wars. I think it is highly unlikely that this could be achieved, but I still consider it an ideal outcome.
In any other scenario, I don't see how sanctions and imposed isolation should be lifted. I think they remain essential for keeping russia from making its imperial ambitions actionable. Unfortunately, money and resources enter the equation and there will be a strong push to bring russian raw materials back onto the market, with a willingness by at least some, to sacrifice morals, security and good judgement for that cause. I think a compromise is a likely outcome, but not an ideal one. Such a compromise is more likely and more favorable to russia in the event that they settle with Ukraine in the scenario Alex outlined - reverting back to pre-2022 status. (As opposed to something closer to a russian victory, in which case there is likely to be particularly bad blood and substantial international security concerns for quite some time.)
@@elysiumfields
I think the Russian public should be informed of what Russia was doing in Ukraine, the attacking civilians and civilian structures etc, the factual information of how many far right people were in Ukraine (alleged neo-nazis and far right, I believe about 1.6% given as the excuse for war) etc. I cannot see Russia integrating back into the world if the public remained brainwashed.