Rutherglen by-election: Does huge Labour win mark the end of SNP domination? | The New Statesman
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- Опубликовано: 2 окт 2024
- In what has been described by Keir Starmer as a 'seismic result', Labour has won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election with more than twice the votes received by the SNP candidate.
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Following Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation as the SNP leader and First Minister, and the ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances, the Scottish National Party has faced some tough months. Is Labour’s big win a sign of more trouble ahead?
Anoosh Chakelian is joined by Ben Walker, the New Statesman's senior data journalist, and Chris Deerin, Scotland editor, to discuss what this result means for the future of Labour, for Scottish politics, and the question of Scottish independence.
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Rishi Sunak: Dead man walking... as with the rest of the Tories... thankfully.
We can only wait and see?
...And here's what the media aren't making clear: 37% turnout so most people chose not to vote at all, Labour polled less votes than they did when they won the seat in 2017 under Jeremy Corbyn, most SNP voters didn't switch to Labour, they just stayed at home.
Good. SNP is corrupt
37% isn't low for a by-election
I suspect the SNP will take short term hit at the election but given that Labour’s lead is largely down to the Tories self-implosion, I suspect once they’re in power, the SNP will make up for lost ground given that a Tory comeback in Scotland is unlikely given their hard right turn.
This is simply untrue. The SNP has also imploded and I shouldn't need to explain why. (Do I?).
The SNP is nothing but the Scottish version of UKIP: with the same basic mentality behind it (I hate foreigners) and the same calibre of people (think Farage) running it.
Your own comment stinks of wishful thinking.
Tbf a big part of snp support is dislike of tories
Dont count on it the snp are under investigatigation there days are numbered especially with the new leader .
@@TimesFM4532 The SNP surge in 2015 got some votes from the Tories, but mostly from Labour. While Labour is likely to regain some of the seats they lost, I don't think they'll be replacing the SNP any time soon.
@@Bertrum123 It's going to take a little more than a bit of financial fraud by the SNP to get Starmer's Red Tories back in the Scottish driver's seat. I'd sooner vote Green than Red Tory, but don't plan switching from the SNP any time soon. I used to be a regular Labour voter, but they pissed me off with Brexit, and Starmer isn't helping.
I hope to God if Labour win the next election they undertake a thorough reform of voting systems and the constitution. We need German style PR in general elections. We need a Senate and the final abolition of the House of Lords, or turning members of the House of Lords into elected ‘senators’ with six year terms. We need to remove all churchmen and all hereditary peers.
Labour has ruled out PR despite a vote at party conference in favour of it.
Remember the promises about fair deal for Scotland and constitutional reform at the last referendum? Labour, Tory, Lib Dem all ignore the views of a sizeable amount of the population and then pretend they care about voter apathy? Hypocrites all.
Sounds good but it won't happen Labour/Tories have Westminster sewn up and they'll do nothing to change that. Starmer is a Tory and if you can't see that you need your head examined.
@@eightiesmusic1984 I’m very, very sad to hear that. The ridiculous cycle where the Tories rule for decades and then only get thrown out due to the disgust and realization of the electorate they’ve been conned again is depressing. My first election as a voter was 1979 and I’ve watched this cycle since. Labour may get two terms and then we’ll be back to another fifteen years of brutal, right wing policies.
Are you having a laugh they are against pr they wont abolish h.o.l they wont change majority of tory policy are you living on the moon
Labour in Scotland are often referred to as Red Tories because of their eagerness to form alliances with Tory council members in the local councils they still control. Starmer's refusal to separate Labour from Tory policies nationally won't help Labour in Scotland, either. The Rutherglen result was expected, if not by such a large margin, as it's been a safe Labour seat for yonks. I suspect SNP voters just stayed home because they knew Labour would get it back. The seat will disappear through redistricting in the next election anyway. I think the SNP just made the decision not to put too much effort into a fight they knew they weren't going to win, and that would last only till the next election anyway.
Starmer wants to leave the ECHR? News to me.
@@nicks4934 I'm thinking of economic and taxation policies, together with buying into the "make Brexit work" myth. Can't squeeze so much as a tissue between Sunak and Starmer on those. ECHR is important for human rights, but hardly central to the economic disaster that Brexit has been. Labour won't be quite as bad as the Tories, but how much better will they actually be? I haven't seen an answer to that. You certainly weren't able to provide one.
Won't help him in Scotland by giving him 37 of the 57 mps in Scotland a bigger percentage of seats than nicola sturgeon got than in 2017
@@thequestioner5916 So what's the difference between Starmer and a Tory? I can't see one.
Its a marginal seat that has been passed between the two of them for years... Also 37% turn out...!! not exactly a slandlide nobody was interested enough.
It’s important not to confuse votes for the SNP with the support for independence which remains high. The independence movement will support non unionist parties and Labour is widely seen as Tory lite in Scotland.
The English continue to makes this mistake. The Scottish desire for self determination is thousands of years old. The SNP are just an expression of that desire. Scotland will be free. England will never break us.
@@jackdubz4247 It is very old , agreed , But in the 21st century it is a nonsense. The English made a huge mistake leaving the EU and Scotland would make a huge mistake in leaving the Union because all over Europe it is better to be together than apart. We are too small now to have the luxury of small fights. I am all for proper devolution but when it comes to global issues we need to be together and not shouting bilious nonsense at each other.
Deranged. Move on. Independence is overforever. Labour will come into power, abolish the HoLs, and introduce a federal UK. The matter is settled.
I thought Starmer said that the Scotts were evil!
Source?
@@MaxTheLazyCat “Saying they will implement the evil Tory policy more fairly seems to be the compromise UK Labour and their Scottish branch office have reached in their desperation to hide the growing list of divisions within the party. It's a disgrace.” in August 2023
Mel Gibson said it in the 90s I think
The Tories lost their deposit? This has made my entire YEAR!!!
So did lib dems because they both voted Labour that won't happen in a GE
Turnout half that whet it was in GE. How can Labour gruw economy if they like brexit?
We don't like Brexit. But we're committed to doing what can be done to making it work, because the alternative is more of the kind of toxic division and loss of faith in government that led to the Brexit vote and the endemic poverty and inequality in the UK.
@@rtozier2011 You can't make it work. Ever. Brexit is about deregulation and privatisation. Our rights, protections and freedoms being stripped away from us. The devolution settlement denigrated at every turn.
Economy can't grew with 100% Debt to GDP Ratio.
Economic Output £2,5 Trillion
National Debt £2,5 Trillion
@@rtozier2011how exactly will Labour make Brexit work? Don't say grow the economy because I will ask how that will be possible
@@keithparker1346 Growing the economy is always possible with judicious investment and reasonable agreements. Not as much as if we were in the EU, that's most likely true. But as a country we forfeited our place in the EU by not looking after people enough for them to see how bad an idea Brexit is.
Labour got less votes than 2019 or 2017 .SNP sat on their arses ,their votes certainly didn't go to Labour .So just where do you see the SNP voters going when there is a General Election on ?
Torie vote collapsed, they must have voted Labour proving that the 2 are the same party these days.
@@ScottishRoss27 Torie?
@@eightiesmusic1984
Aye the Tories - Conservatives
@@ScottishRoss27 Tory vote collapsed. Torie (sic) vote did not.
@@eightiesmusic1984
The Scots Language is a recognised indigenous language of Scotland by the Scottish Parliament, UNESCO, The European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages and also The United Kingdom when it ratified The European Charter in 2001.
I think not shy voters but votes Lent by both disgruntled voters who prioritise getting rid of the current shower of ToeRags and same next year's GE. But once rid of them then it will be intensive campaigning for independence in subsequent GEs.
Yeah. Wait till full effects of Brexit r felt. 5 years down the road compare and Contrast with the EU rights of NI😅
As if the British will ever vote for a left leaning government.
That's how i interpret it, too. It's vote lending situation - unionists all loaning their vote to Labour to kick the Tories and SNP loaning their votes to Labour to send a message not to take them for granted - with the added benefit that the SNP voters can give their votes back to the SNP at the general election in around a year, so a short term loan to Labour to humiliate the Tories, but not something Labour can rely on at the GE.
ABC; Anybody But Conservatives
@@PostingCringeOnMaina big part of SNP voters never came out to vote
I suspect between 10-15 seats at the very most at the next GE for Scottish Labour!
Based on a low turnout in a by-election?
@@ScottishRoss27 it’s just a hunch!
@@kayedal-haddad
Big jump from Labour's 2 seats in Scotland currently.
Come on you sweaties
I hate divisionists so much, instead of fracturing the UK into its constituent countries, how about vote for the parties that bring change and growth? Like how blind do you have to be?! If you don't like labour's ideology right now, FUCKING CHANGE IT THEN INSTEAD OF SPLITTING VOTES AND GIVING POWER TO THE TORIES.
A large chunk of the SNP vote stayed at home so difficult to know how this will translate in a general election, it does however give Starmer a major boost before the Labour party conference which could in-turn help boost support on the doorstep.
Labour going from just 1 seat to just 2 seats is ''a major boost?''
@@ScottishRoss27 you are forgetting about the swing. even if labour would have won by 10 which most polls were suggesting. That still would have translated 18-20 seats in scotland.
@@arpandas2296
No it won't.
The by-election turnout was low 37,2%.
2019 Full UK Election turnout in Scotland was 68,1%.
@@ScottishRoss27 keep coping hard then and keep pretending that snp will have the same 2019 result.
@@ScottishRoss27 the attitude of snp is like that of tories after chesham and amersham result. they didnt take it seriously yet in subsequent by elections and local elections they keep on losing ground to lib dems in south. similar will be the condition of snp.
Oh why can't Scotland 🏴 just be independent already 🙄, its so boring being in England 🏴 and having these feeds keep coming up about completey different country. Go go go, build the border keep to your side of it live and be happy and thats it.
The turn out was low.
Labour's share of the vote was down compared to the last
election.
IT WASNT BY ANY MEANS A FANTASTIC WIN.
Um no. The by-election is likely a meaningless result since it is a by-election under a year before the next GE and therefore ripe for a protest from Scottish voters against the old MP's arrogance and also a warning to the new SNP leadership to stop the internal factional sniping since the recent leadership contest and to reform & reshape the party.
As to Rishi's contribution - it was telling. He knew that Scottish Tories had no chance (who Tory central don't like anyway) so he focused on attack on the SNP to support Labour a fellow English 'British Nationalist' party which he knows just like the Tories absolutely does not accept the constitutional right of Scotland to leave the UK union if it chooses and they absolutely don't accept the right of self determination.
Scottish voters especially the young, know that Brexit was imposed on them against their will, and has ruined their future and that Labour just as much as the Tories backed Brexit and that Labour has zero intention of relinking with Europe.
As the slow puncture economic and diplomatic disaster that is Brexit unfolds is (slow puncture being the term used by FT Editor Peter Foster) then the Scots will see more and more just what they have lost and especially when they compare themselves to those in NI who due to the unique constitutional status of NI are staying in the EU customs union and also de facto in the EU SM since all born in NI are citizens of both the UK and the ROI and many of the benefits of EU membership apply to individual EU citizens.
Conclusion can be drawn from this with but not too much. The snp certainly on a decline. Does it mean independence is its hard to tell. But without a strong SNP its virtually impossible to see another referendum.
You speak of rejoin the EU no british party will commit to that at this moment in time. As there are other major issue we need to resolve. The main thing I want to see is closer relationship with the EU
@@lenabo9929 Thanks for the reply - when I say 'relinking with Europe' I do not mean rejoining the EU but a closer relationship. Rejoining is impossible for a generation at least.
Back on July 4th 2022 Labour issued a 5 point definitive policy statement ruling out rejoining the EU single market as a member but talked of a deal giving access to the EU SM for trade in services.
Here Starmer is carrying on the same magical thinking as Corbyn who in Dec 2018 wrote that;
1. Labour would honour Brexit (ie leave the EU and EEA) but it would negotiate:
2) "A new, comprehensive customs union with the EU, with a British say in future trade deals".
3) "a new and strong relationship with the single market that gives us frictionless trade, and the freedom to rebuild our economy and expand our public services"
4) "our plan would not leave Britain as an across-the-board rule-taker of EU regulations without a say."
It's nonsensical since In a single market such as those of the EU or those in the USA, Canada & Australia all members are considered as being legally ‘domestic’ and as such are under a single overarching law and courts.
Membership of the EU SM with its privilege of seamless borderless trade in both goods and services in is best thought of as a constitutional state of being and it is not a trade agreement between third parties.
There can be no ‘close association’ or 'close alignment' with an SM, there is only membership.
In early Dec 2022 and about a months ago Starmer doubled down on the July 2022 Labour policy statement. This is why senior Tories are correct that it won't happen.
@@lenabo9929 It means absolutely nothing to the self determination/independence movement. The SNP didn't come up with the concept. As long as England continues to interfere in Scotland's affairs nothing will change. We will still want to dissolve this pointless, lopsided union.
The Scots would kill for this deal - a N Ireland business man on the Protocol. They may feel like killing someone in Westminster lol
@@jackdubz4247 well that hasn't happened and is very unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Dry your eyes, with your London Centric hopes , Scotland is still 👋
Oh dear is that the sound of . . . Oh that's right DELUSION 😂.
NO, Re-Join the EU , NO, Vote for Labour 2024.
Come and join with labour to help everyone have a better life together?
It might. We need to see progress at the general election .
I´m afraid Labour may loose in Mid-Bedfordshire
Great new hairstyle Anoosh
Scotland cant oug labour in...only twice in posf war have Scottish votes mattered..1966 and 1974
Celebrate yer false dawn
We should remember that a majority of Scottish voters have ALWAYS voted for unionist parties. There has never been a majority for independence in any vote in Scotland.
Like uk voted for pro eu parties
@@nicks4934 absolutely!
Labour/Tory no difference sadly Starmer and most of PLP are the continuty of 44 years of disastrous economic policies. SNP have not being doing fell the ferries fiasco etc. None of these parties are currently worth voting for. The SNP are less bad than other 2 you cant exrapolate anything on a 37% turnout and the Labour vote is a Labour Tory combined vote.
Holding off judging Labour until they publish their actual manifesto, but even from what I've seen so far, they are far preferable to the Tory's (who are verging on far-right now)
And you'd rather split the progressive vote and let the tories a larger amount of seats in the next GE?
Worry not , it's a protest vote because Nicky's not in charge doing her best for um! Something?
The Scot’s don’t let us down!
The map of an independent Scotland, can be rolled up, for a while.
It’s a Scottish matter, l remain neutral.
Never until its taken.
Yeah well if the SNP weren't stealing votes from labour by doing this whole nationalism and corruption thing, maybe labour would've won some elections and have larger majorities if in opposition, SNP is a catch all independence party, their only goal is to gain independence with no plan afterwards, their party is made up of conservatives, liberals and social democrats, do you think that's sustainable? The UK is stronger with scotland and scotland is stronger with the UK.
Another one:
Do you think there's a time when the high courts of British overseas territories should be held more accountable to the high court in London. Bringing these places reasonably into line with domestic tax codes. Or is Ireland post Brexit actually a real tax heaven?
Or that is there a more nuanced approach to curtailing the vestiges of empire where some places such as the Cayman Islands may be difficult to followup and would we look more to the possibility of their independence as we let go of their strings attached assets and put move on to further international pressure on, say, another of these places by simple way reclaiming by force. Or should we continue to allow succesive servative parties to protect us blindingly from beading pirate waters. Or should the labour be chased out of number 10 at the end of this tenure in the dispatch box, as Reece mog should, if they do not put together a reformed image of a constitutional bind.
This Roger just keeps getting jollier
Its nothing to do with Ireland
Where the real tax heaven ay'?
No single British Law system. Scotland's and England's being separate.
Valid comments the circumstances around this by-election are interesting.
Nope, nope and nope. This was English Labour throwing everything and the kitchen sink at this to make it the end for the SNP. It doesn't work that way.
You don't think the SNP threw everything they had at this by-election?
@@Boghopper9999 The SNP does not have the same resources as the English Labour Party. So they weren’t able to set up a mini-call centre in England on election day for instance, nor bus in activists from every part of the UK…or MPs from England and Wales. And more crucially…the so called Scottish Labour Party doesn’t have these resources either. It’s bankrolled from London.
Get the popcorn 🍿 and enjoy the show, they're about to entertain us all.
English Labour 😂😂😂, did you not see the banners and signs that say 'Scottish Labour'. Anti English 🏴 xenephobia drivel again. Some people 😂😂😂.
Blairbour on the march. Or is it? The polls will narrow and scrutiny of Labour's lack of vision and commitment to Tory policy will raise lots of questions before the GE. One by-election is not especially significant. Not surprisingly many in the commentariat are getting carried away. By- election results before the 1992 GE and high poll leads pointed to a Labour victory but it was not to be, tragically. Kinnock moved Labour to the right but by today's standards he would be decidedly on the left. Tory lies about tax won the election for them in 1992 and they are well down the road of using wedge issues to attack Labour. Starmer's Labour has nothing to offer Scotland except more failed neoliberalism.
Labour is not offering 'more liberalism' - they are actually offering more centralised monopoly capitalism.
@@ernestthesmallholder559 Liberalism and neoliberalism are not the same.
@@ernestthesmallholder559 And colonialism continuing the theft of Scotland's resources to another country
By-elections and a high poll lead also suggested a Labour victory before 1997.
@@rtozier2011
In Scotland, SNP polling 11% ahead of Labour and 22% ahead of the Tories in the recent yougov poll.
-a
The Scot’s don’t let us down come on you sweeties!
Why the racism?
I know it's like nail biting stuff 😂.
Can someone tell me what Labour will do different from Tories..?
Nothing. The same.
A better, more adult agreement and relationship with the EU, investing in domestic infrastructure, and governing with the central aim of improving the lives and opportunities of ordinary people, rather than the central aim of staying in power.
@@rtozier2011 You started off strong there, but quickly fell apart and that whole thing about not wanting to stay in power... Utter waffle. Labour seeks hegemony and supremacy just as much as the Tories.
@@jackdubz4247 Not waffle at all. I said it's not Labour's central aim. Sure it's one of our aims. But the reason for that is to help people.
@@rtozier2011
£2,5 Trillion national debt, the same size as GDP/Economic output.
Debt to GDP Ratio of 100%. No money for infrastructure or improving lives.
GE 2024 in Scotland my prediction is that labour will become the largest party. They will take most of central belt seats. Tories could hold onto their seats in the NE and borders/ayr. Lib dems can hold their current seats and possibly gain some seats they used to win. It is clearly an anti SNP vote. They dont offer anything new and its just independence all the time.
What's wrong with Independence. 🤔
Yeah. Wait till full effects of Brexit r felt. 5 years down the road compare and Contrast with the EU rights of NI😅
@@beachcomber1ableThe same thing that's wrong with Brexit. It's needlessly divisive and will not improve the quality of life in Scotland.
@@rtozier2011 And you think a Labour or Tory Westminster dictatorship will improve things for Scotland?
@@rtozier2011absolute nonsense the reason scotland is in a mess is due to the union taken out of eu powers getting undermined.
Unionism in Scotland is strong as is nationalism but the SNP had an advantage in being the only main nationalist party. But unionist voters seem to be more willing to tactically vote against the SNP which is hurting the SNP.
Aye ok tory and Labour voters are now the same thing they should join together there is no difference now
Unionism is a road to nowhere. It hurts Scotland more than it helps. But some people are to scared to see that truth. It is not Scotland's destiny to be chained to the rotting corpse of Brexit Britain.
If British Nationalism is as strong as Scottish Nationalism, how come the 2 main BritNat parties are having to abandon every principle they ever had via joining together to try hold back Scottish Nationalism, progress to normal national sovereignty and the ditching of the low prospect low standard of living status quo British Nationalism offers?
@@ScottishRoss27 Such an angry nationalist lol
@@saorsa5 you're silly and reading headlines too much
Is it a true ‘huge win’ given the low turn out?
Turnout Down 29% on the 2019 Election in that seat.
It's like... if Starmer stood for Labour leadership election again... he'd be able to say he IS a Zionist this time, and win... because the antizionists have now been purged, with bogus accusations of antisemitism...
Astonishing success doubling the number of Labour seats in Scotland from one to two. Amazing.
@@eightiesmusic1984 Well, it was only the one seat that was being contested.
Fewer votes than Labour got under Corbyn.
I'm glad that they understatement the SNP 😂😂😂😂JUST WATCH THIS SPACE
The SNP always do better under a Tory Government gong right back to the 60's. Behind the scenes they like each other despite their openly expressed dislike.
Westminster is slowly loosing Scotland. Independence is inevitable at this point.
I don't think that English people realise what a dog's breakfast the SNP has made of governing Scotland particularly in the last 5 years . Examples are numerous. This has culminated in the resignation of Nicola who was once lauded as the best politician in the country , being an example during covid, to her temporary arrest involving the disappearance of money raised for the fighting of another independence referendum still ongoing Meanwhile , due to huge mismanagement deficiencies and serious underfunding over 16 years, the ferry services to the Isles are in a shocking state. These along with inflationary pressures of various kinds will kick the SNP out whether it is their fault or not. I am an old retired GP and helped Donald Dewar win in S Aberdeen in 1966 when i was a Junior Doctor that was 2 years after the 1964 election when Wilson just won . It may be that we are in a 1964 situation when Harold won by four seats but I hope it is more like 1966 or 1997. instead of 1992. I think Sunak will have difficulty in doing a John Major. I am sure his shirt is outside his underpants which Tories don't like.
Scotland isn't in England.
There has been No NHS Scotland strkes. The only UK Nation to avoid strikes.
Junior Doctors accepted a 12,4% pay rise recently.
The ferry services to the Isles are not in a shocking state.
Scotland has the best social contract in the UK with the SNP Government.
It is in Britain , though as yet and it is important to tell the whole of the UK what has been going on in Scotland. I suppose you may think that this is unimportant but to people like me it vital.
Very true , but apparently huge numbers of Scots now know that the SNP has managed Scotland very poorly in many ways.@@ScottishRoss27
@@starnafin
I'm Scottish not British,
British is a political term and bigoted towards Scots proven by verse 6 of the British National Anthem which celebrates the violent suppression of “Rebellious Scots” by a British army.
The British Media keeps rUK in the dark about Scotland.
For example this week while The English Government scrapped its HS2 train set,
The Scottish Government introduced its ScotRail Peaktime Fare Reduction Pilot.
No. It was a low turnout, Labour vote share in that seat also went backwards from 18,545 in 2019 UK Election to 17,845 in this by-election. They only won because of the low turnout and Tories voting Labour.
@@a.r.w.2753 Congratulations on Labour going from 1 seat to 2 seats.
How many SNP voters just stayed at home?
@@TootlinGeoff
Alot of Labour voters stayed at home. The Torie vote collapsed and went to Labour. Proving that there is no difference between the 2 these days.
Labour have 2 seats of 59 compared to SNP's 44 of 59.
Of Scotland's 59 Westminster Constituencies
75% are still SNP.
Just 3,5% are Labour.
Does Labour going from 1 seat to 2 seats mark the end of the SNP? No.
ScottishRoss is a raving nationalist. Imagine your whole identify being your nationality - tragic really
@@deanunio
I didn't attack anyone's political identity they have formed or anyone's nationality to justify attacking mine
The labour voters and tory voters a 0:02 re the same thing now they should just join together as one party absolutely no difference between them . This is not a massive win false dawn
You think that Labour are the same as a populist party verging on the far right that deals in conspiracy theories (meat tax, 15 mins cities etc...)?
Please explain