Unluck! Impressive how you keep track of the counts of all the tiles. On there not being enough safe tiles, maybe I'm silly but wasn't 2m pretty safe in E2-0 due to 3m one chance? Then why was 7s dangerous against toimen in E2-2 considering 6s and 8s discard?
In E2-0, I was not excited about 2m because 3m is the tile they discarded for Riichi. That said, Statistical Mahjong Strategy by miinin (SMS) reports a slight decrease in danger of 2m when 3m is the Riichi declaration tile. Just searched this up―I didn't know this when I was playing. And, yes, there is also a slight decrease in danger due to the one-chance, but not by a whole bunch. One chance is generally hard to rely on when it's late, anyways. The point is, though, that I lacked any 100% safe tiles after the 7m. I would estimate 2m to be about a 5% deal-in rate, maybe? And in fact, if we're to take into account the one-chance, we can also say that 4m, the tile we'd be pushing, is one-chance (suji on one side, one chance on the other). So if we have to rely on one-chance to fold, we could also just rely on it to push. SMS says that half-suji one-chance 4 is actually safer than one-chance 2. Go figure―stats are weird. About 2-2, I don't believe I said 7s was dangerous against toimen. If you are referring to what I said at 15:20, I meant 7p. I have this bad habit of not saying the suit I mean when I talk about tiles in my hand. I was thinking between 9p and 7s when the Riichi player dropped 4s, but decided on 9p because it was 100% safe to the dora pon player.
Yes, keeping 9s for Ittsuu is completely fine, and probably better. I'm not excited for Ittsuu because it's very difficult to make into a mangan, but it's not like Green makes a mangan anyways.
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6:39 4m looks pushable.
Unluck!
Impressive how you keep track of the counts of all the tiles.
On there not being enough safe tiles, maybe I'm silly but wasn't 2m pretty safe in E2-0 due to 3m one chance? Then why was 7s dangerous against toimen in E2-2 considering 6s and 8s discard?
In E2-0, I was not excited about 2m because 3m is the tile they discarded for Riichi. That said, Statistical Mahjong Strategy by miinin (SMS) reports a slight decrease in danger of 2m when 3m is the Riichi declaration tile. Just searched this up―I didn't know this when I was playing.
And, yes, there is also a slight decrease in danger due to the one-chance, but not by a whole bunch. One chance is generally hard to rely on when it's late, anyways. The point is, though, that I lacked any 100% safe tiles after the 7m. I would estimate 2m to be about a 5% deal-in rate, maybe?
And in fact, if we're to take into account the one-chance, we can also say that 4m, the tile we'd be pushing, is one-chance (suji on one side, one chance on the other). So if we have to rely on one-chance to fold, we could also just rely on it to push. SMS says that half-suji one-chance 4 is actually safer than one-chance 2. Go figure―stats are weird.
About 2-2, I don't believe I said 7s was dangerous against toimen. If you are referring to what I said at 15:20, I meant 7p. I have this bad habit of not saying the suit I mean when I talk about tiles in my hand. I was thinking between 9p and 7s when the Riichi player dropped 4s, but decided on 9p because it was 100% safe to the dora pon player.
Do you think E1-0 turn 3 we can keep 9s over Hatsu? Kinda saw an ittsuu chance there
Yes, keeping 9s for Ittsuu is completely fine, and probably better. I'm not excited for Ittsuu because it's very difficult to make into a mangan, but it's not like Green makes a mangan anyways.