Lebanon is a fascinating country, albeit one with an incredibly difficult and tragic history. But how can it find its way out of the current mess? And do we really need to worry about the possibility of a return to conflict, either internally or regionally? Thoughts and comments below. And as always, do consider subscribing or, even better, becoming a channel member. All support is really appreciated: www.RUclips.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join
Would the situation in Syria not be a deterrent for the public to try something similar in Lebanon ? Surely, they would not want an endless civil war as is the case with their neighbours.
@@anirudhparthasarathy3387 Believe me some people in Lebanon want the war to come back. They've been talking about it since 2011 because in their minds Lebanon can be divided. Those people are the Lebanese Forces led by former warlord Samir Geagea (convicted murderer). This party is the second largest Christian party behind the FPM that was created by the current president Michel Aoun (former head of the army and the only person that called out the flaws of the Taïf Agreement that is the cause of our problems). The LF think they can beat Hezbollah in a war. We all know they can't. They blame him to be a militia, yet they are worse than him. Just google Samir Geagea crimes and you'll know what I mean. His a Saudi puppet and it's first man in Lebanon because there is not a big sunni figure anymore. This guy wants to fight Hezbollah but doesn't even talk about the leader of corruption Nabih Berri(speaker of parliament since 1992 leader of Amal a militia in the war google him). Amal and Hezbollah are the Shia Duo. Amal is corrupt Hezbollah isn't, but Hezbollah doesn't want a Shia-Shia conflict. The FPM and Hezbollah had an agreement that prevented a return to war back in 2006. The main thing the FPM demanded was to erase corruption from the state. Last month Hezbollah and the LF (both enemies) backed Amal in a decision that breached the constitution just to make the FPM look bad. The FPM is being fought for 2 reasons: wanting to end corruption and being an ally to Hezbollah. So now the FPM-Hezbollah relations are heated and we are heading to parliamentary elections and in october this parliament will elect the new president of Lebanon. This a breif explanation of the situation here. If you're intrested I can give you more details about each party. The situation here is so complex that you need to live here to understand and don't trust what you here from the media and specially Lebanese media.
@@anirudhparthasarathy3387 Yeah that is nonsense. In Lebanon the situation with syrian refugees is bad because we can't control who is a former membre of ISIS or not but to say muslims are terrorists that's not true
@@julienhabib8480 I wouldn't take this guy's word for it. his entire comment is flawed and he's obviously an fpm supporter. First of all both Hezbollah and Amal are corrupt and just like the lebanese forces the fpm and Hezbollah committed atrocities during the civil war the fpm continuesly bombed Beirut killing civilians. Meanwhile Hezbollah spews lies about wanting to free Palestine yet had partaken in the massacre of the yarmouk Palestinian refugees camp in syria, in which the Assad regime used chemical weapons and left hundreds of thousands of Palestinians homeless. As for the fpm fighting corruption the only fighting it has done so far is prosecute comedians and revolutionaries by military court, such as Gino raidy, chaden esperanza, and Hussein qaouk who are influencers and comedians that have been called to appear and be prosecuted by the military court. they are all equally corrupt as the fpm recently have bailed out a serial rapist by the name of Marwan Habib that had been issued a presidential pardon, he would go on to rape a woman in a hotel in Florida and have now been prosecuted and jailed in the state of Florida. And both Hezbollah the fpm and lebanese forces continue to shame attack and protest against the families that lost their children and relatives during the Beirut port explosion. The fpm and Hezbollah heavily control the media and pose a risk to our freedom of speech as each party has their own tv channel. a year back a hezbollah critic by the name of lokman sleem was assassinated by obviously the one's he criticized Hezbollah, and the fpm who are in power refuse to seek justice and the case has been put to rest, as to the fpms (Free patriotic movement) request. And other investigators in the Beirut blast have gone missing such as The costumes colonel mounir Abu rjeily who was assassinated to prevent the case from going forward. So you can start doing your own research on the situation starting with the names I've given or you can believe this uneducated person's propaganda.
I'm Lebanese, and I usually don't speak up on the matter but here it goes. The problem is not with the refugees, nor the "animosity" with Israel, nor any regional conflict. The people who are in charge have come together to literally loot the rest of the population. The current crisis in Lebanon is 90% self-inflicted. Not by the general population, but by the people who are in charge. In this country, you have the option of supporting the looters by granting them legitimacy in return for some benefits (a good job, evading prosecution, etc...) while giving yourself the false illusion of supporting whatever grand cause they claim to be fighting for. You also have the option of not doing that, losing the benefits, and simply not voting for them. While this doesn't sound particularly bad, this places you head to head against those who do in basically every aspect of life. Want to start a new business? Sure go for it, as soon as it takes off, a competitor backed by the political parties will be created with the sole purpose of getting you to shut down. As they don't have to comply with tax law for example, but you do. Want to open up a Toyota dealership? Open a ketchup factory? Plant some lettuce? Sorry, if you don't pledge your allegiance, there's no way you'll get a permit, and even if you do, you'll be out of business soon. In most cases, even if you're a loyal supporter and your business takes a bite out of the big guys' share, you're immediately dealt the same hand. Now, how does one survive? Well you can work for a company! And good luck getting anything other than a morbid salary and 0 prospects of promotion if you don't think the same way as your boss. Good luck getting the job in the first place. You can't even open a PayPal account to work for offshore clients and get your money in easily. But, for many years, there was something lucrative going on, for some reason, while everything was going to shit, banks were offering ever increasing interests for foreign currency deposits. The trade deficit has been negative since 2011, so the crisis should have started then and there, but it was postponed by ever increasing interest rates that reached up to 30% in 2019 just before the crisis. Essentially, the central bank had been issuing foreign currency bonds that were bought by local banks in order to cover that trade deficit. This obliterated the economy, not even the people in charge or the ones following them were interested in opening up a profitable business, just putting money in the bank was more profitable with almost no risk to be known (at the time). Everyone bought into the lie that banking secrecy always attracted foreign deposits in banks, and that the banking sector was rock solid because this was the rhetoric played by all media outlets (which are also all controlled by the same folks). Want to start an opposing party? You will be obliterated by all media outlets even those claiming to oppose one another. By the way, the people in charge claim to have big differences in ideology and opinions, and appear to resent one another yet under the table they are co-owners of lots of businesses. We do not have electricity because the people in charge preferred renting boats that have generators on them over building power plants (which could have costed 10x less). The deal included a cut per kilowatthour for the brokers. The port explosion happened, because the ammonium nitrates were never moved due to a bureaucratic nightmare, that included an argument about who should be selling the seized material. Some say that they were imported and stored for the benefit of the Syrian gov, but I won't go into that. Peoples' lives didn't matter as much either way. In conclusion, this system is rotten to its core. There's no way the problem will be resolved, not even by a miracle, if the same clientelistic mentality remains. People have lost their savings. Salaries are the same for the average Joe, yet prices have increased 18 fold and are still increasing day in and day out.
Thank you so much for such a long and helpful comment. I really appreciate it. I really didn’t go into as much details about the corruption as perhaps I should have. This really helps to show just how deep the problem is. It really is a tragic situation. I have long had a very soft spot for Lebanon. It is an incredible country and I have had many Lebanese friends over the years. In fact, my sister lived in Beirut for three years! I really do hope there is some way out of this. Wishing you all my very best from London.
@@JamesKerLindsay You should also be wary of classifying the conflict of 1975 as that of Palestinians vs Christians. It really was the continuation of the conflict of 1958 (which wasn't strictly about panarabism but also about changing the status quo of maronite/french domination over the government and the economy) but with the Palestinians as a a new actor on the left.
Learned more from your response about the real ground situation than anywhere else... Thank you for sharing...I wish there was a way for you all to start a farming community... The whole world is going through a transition phase it appears, some countries are just hit harder than others currently (Lebanon, Australia, Venezuela..ect)... Trust in the Lord, it's really the only thing we can do..
My heart goes out to the people of Lebanon, it hurts seeing one of the most beautiful countries in the world go through this I know people are suffering I just wish they weren't put through all this.
Awww, you feel sorry and wish and pray for Lebanon like many here but won't peek behind the curtain to look at reality. Nor will you lift a finger to hold accountable the people from your community that have and are causing this suffering. What good are your shallow and pathetic words?
wow, thank you. I've started to tell people I know that in 2022, your channel may be the most important one on youtube. i just have an uneasy feeling it's going to be a crazy year internationally.
My parents told me about the Lebanon crisis when they were younger, the civil war from 1975-1990. It was so complicated yet fascinating and sad to hear about. Thanks for your video on it James. Lebanon and the Middle East, especially, really seem to intrigue me. Hopefully the country can overcome all it's problems soon. 🙂 Enjoy your weekend!
Thanks so much. Lebanon has always fascinated me. I mentioned in the recent Q&A video that it was what really got me started on International relations and conflict studies; although, ironically, I ended up specialising on nearby Cyprus. But it is an amazing country. And it's so sad to see it suffering so badly, after everything else that it has been through. I am so glad you liked it. By the way, just to give you a heads up, I am planning to continue the Middle East theme this week. I'm hoping to take a look at the Iran nuclear talks. This is another topic I have been meaning to take a look at for ages.
I remember that in the 1970s, before the civil war, they called Lebanon the “Switzerland of the Middle East.” Every time they call a country, other than Switzerland, the Switzerland of X, they jinxed it and doom it to failure. In any case, the World Bank and the United Nations can say what they want, but the issue is what can be done about it and who will do it. The answer to which are who knows and only Lebanon, because if they expect outside help, namely from the West, they can dream on because it ain’t gonna happen. I hope, because we don’t need to get involved in yet another foreign civil war.
I'm not sure that outside help from the West is not on the agenda. For instance, a stable Lebanon is in the best interest of the EU - just think of the possible impliciations of major conflict - Lebanon already has a large number of refugees from the Syrian civil war. If Lebanon falls, then wouldn't it be realistic to see a large refugee crisis in Europe?
@@travelmentaryTV I’m in California, so Lebanon is not on USA’s radar what with the invasion we’re having from Central America, Ukraine, China, and all. That said, Lebanon could become yet another refugee crisis for the EU.
@@carlosmiro4932 Yeah you’re right, it’s Uruguay, I suppose. It’s also considered a stable and democratic country that keeps itself out of conflicts and therefore attracts capital. I find it interesting to see videos from Lebanon in the 60s. Quite different from the situation now…
@@JamesKerLindsay I actually had the privilege of going to Lebanon twice. Once was just to Baalbek. The second time I got to go from north to south. Amazing food and very friendly people and never had a problem of any kind.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. It was really nice of you to comment on not giving too much detail. Usually, I get complaints that I left things out. But as I always try to explain, it is really easy to overwhelm people who are new to a subject with too much information. I do try to focus on what is really necessary for viewers. So it’s really nice when someone says I got it right! :-)
Another great video! It’s just such a shame, especially for those locals suffering; not only was Beirut a jewel of a city prior to the civil war, but it had seemingly rekindled that magic for a brief window in the late 2000s and early 2010s, there was no more occupation and tourism was back. A guy I know, who I saw a lot in the early 2010s and is a Lebanese Christian, would often go on trips once or twice a year and tell us crazy stories about the clubs of Beirut. Despite the ongoing presence of Hezbollah in the country the impression I got at the time was that Lebanon was moving past the conflict into normalcy; what’s happened in the decade since, especially in the last 3 years, is quite disheartening, despite my always trying to see optimistic directions things could go in, for this situation doesn’t seemingly have many directions it can go that seem positive. It really is such a complicated and precarious situation. There are just so many factors preventing any movements toward a solution. To start with you’ve got a state hamstrung by a Bosnia-like constitution, which basically does not function at all (but to be fair both Lebanon and Bosnia’s constitutions are brilliant pieces of compromise and were absolutely necessary to end the respective wars), so that’s bad enough, but then there’s the whole issue of the dozens of other minority sects and thousands of foreign refugees in the country. Then over the top of all that you lob in the wild card of Hezbollah setting up a state-within-a-state, on the surface playing nice with the current Republic of Lebanon regime, participating in parliamentary politics in Beirut while basically creating their own one-party fascist regime in the areas they control, even launching independent military actions that can bring the country to war without the Lebanese government ever lifting a finger (as was the case even in 2006, a time when the reborn Lebanon was on the upswing compared to now). This situation is an example of how Hezbollah’s playing the Republic’s parliamentary game makes the situation even more complicated, because who exactly is representing what side can sometimes be unclear, though this current scenario is clearly better than civil war. (However it could be argued that Hezbollah, as part of the current government, has contributed to the wide-scale government corruption that has caused the current crisis) However I’m not sure if the current situation will even allow for this compromise status quo, that provided at least a veneer of normality for the about 15 years, to continue. The government is basically powerless, and in my opinion this power vacuum, which is slowly continuing to open, will eventually be filled by internal and external opportunists. Countries in Lebanon’s current condition are those which see coups, civil wars, and other unpleasant scenarios. In the case of a collapse of the current regime in Beirut, there is a very real possibility that Hezbollah deposes it and takes over a majority of the country, which would result in immediate war with Israel. It would also result in some kind of a return to the nightmare of the past, as the Christian west and Sunni north would likely not accept a Hezbollah regime and would form their own rival governments, probably each with foreign support. That’s the tough part about this situation that I find very similar to the Balkans: if war breaks out the battle lines have already been drawn and used before, making a slip back into conflict all too easy Prayers for those suffering, and optimistically hoping that they somehow find that path out of this situation before it gets worse, but at present as optimistic as I try to be I’m struggling to find very many paths to that scenario.
“Despite the ongoing presence of Hezbolla” do you see how uninformed you are? Have you been to Lebanon? Ask anyone who has, I promise they would tell you they’ve never even seen a member of Hezbolla! The problem is with the garbage system that was laid by Europe KSA and USA.
@@TheLocalLt Not in the city and not even in the southernmost village would you find a spec of Hezbollah. Sure they exist, but are mainly a force of deterrence against Israel. When did Hezb ever kidnap tourists? Never. When did they ever even threaten to do so? Never. Hezb is an integral part of the system and don’t get me wrong, they’re not perfect they have their faults. But the same usual bullshit that everyone spouts “the problem is Hezbolla” is just complete and utter nonsense.
@@Beyrouth_ so you “wouldn’t find a spec of hezbollah” yet they’re an “integral part of the system”, got it. My point is their presence in an area would make it unsafe for visitors from abroad, such as my friend, by exerting one-party control over these places.
@@TheLocalLt an integral part of the system because they attend the parliamentary discussions, dressed in suits and not in militia gear 😂 How is it unsafe for your friend? To each their own. Keep living in whatever fantasy you want 👌🏼
Thank you for covering this! I am Lebanese and I spoke before on my small channel about Lebanon. I will be making a documentary on the banking crisis there.
The Lebanon is a nihilist state… everything is self inflicted… it’s an example of what can happen to a country which has a multicultural, multi religious, multi tribal society… America is following in its shadow… 😕
Lebanon is a metaphor of former Afghanistan government.- the love of money is the root to all kind of evil. Nevertheless this is a good overview video of Lebanon from what it was and what it is becoming.
Thank you very much. It really is terrible to see what is happening in Lebanon and the corruption that has not only caused it, but also stops it from being resolved.
I visited Lebanon many times and I can say that it is absolutely one of the most beautiful countries I have visited. It is sad to see the situation there. But Lebanese people and especially young generation should not leave their country and let the so called "refugees" take over their beautiful country and replace its talented, educated and brilliant population. GOD BLESS LEBANON 🇱🇧❤
@@iamannocent2913 you wouldn't call your self a "refugee" when you can go back to your country then come back and enter multiple times then the refugee statue will no long suit you..the so called syrian refugee in Lebanon their presence became for pure economical and demographicale reasons and not "life threatening=refugee". They use the money of UN to stay in Lebanon...they do not want to go back to their country which more than 90% of it there is no war and its safe..thats why they go and come back!
Thank you so much Roger. Yes, it has really gone unnoticed by much of the international media. And yet it is such an awful and dangerous situation. I wanted to do it as I have a sincere affection for Lebanon. I went many years ago and have had many Lebanese friends over the years. I hope all is well with you. Have a good weekend.
What an amazing and informative 10 min video! Watching this from Lebanon while sitting in darkness wrapped up in a blanket because there's no electricity to light up heaters in this freezing cold weather...
Thanks. I hope you find it useful and interesting. It is an incredibly complex history to try to condense down. But I hope that it provides a readily understandable overview of the situation. I actually have a real soft spot for Lebanon. It is an amazing country.
Very interesting to know all of the historical context, thank you for the video. Lebanon has always been very curious for me and the situation right now is very unfortunate - the humanitarian and economic crisis. It is unfortunate that more states are not willing to share the responsibility in rehabilitating the refugees. I often see protests from the Lebanese community against their government inaction in major place in Paris such as Place de la République or Champ-de-Mars. Following the explosion, there was a highly publicised visit of Président Macron (which he followed up twice - with vague promises of following up the cabinet inaction). From the historical context, I have a question though, the current generation of the Palestinians who came as refugees in 1948 - are the identified as Lebanese Sunni or Palestinians ? Have a good weekend !
Lebanon grants citizenship based on several factors but always keeping a keen eye on sectarian balance within the Lebanese community I'm addition, Palestinians are not granted Lebanese or any other Arab nationality ( except for Jordan in some cases) the reason being not to grant the Israelis a solution for the Palestinian crisis - a result of Israeli occupation - out of the pockets of the Arab states.....
Most of the Palestinian refugees are Sunni, but the Lebanese government didn't grant them citizenship along (same story with the Syrian refugees) as that would shift the balance of sects in the country; They care so much about the balance of power that Lebanese women can't give citizenship to their children, and in most cases the non Lebanese husband is Arab meaning Sunni. FYI, under Lebanese law Palestinians are banned from practicing over 40 types of jobs including medical ones.
Croatia ❤ Lebanon I am French and I have visited many times Croatia and Lebanon. And I think that both countries have many things in common. They are both very beautiful countries, and their pooulations is also very welcoming, friendly and very beautiful too :) Also, both countries are losing their young people who are leaving the country for better opportunities. I fall in love with both countries since my very first days there. That's why I came back many times to both of them :))
@@ravivmadar2422 Thank you ❤️ I also have story to tell. I visited France 3 year's ago. City of Strasbourg. It's an instant love. Architecture, people, food ... Waiting pandemic to pass so I can go back !
@@daxsh4621 Great! I am not from Strasbourg but I have been there last year. It is an amazing city! Did you visit Colmar ? Where in Croatia are you from ?
@@ravivmadar2422 I'm Croat from Herzegovina but currently living in capital of Croatia , Zagreb. My friends live in Lorrach near Basel and every time I visit them, I take some time to go in France to see Mulhouse , Strasbourg and a region ... I'm much more fan of France then Germany or Swizz 😀
@@daxsh4621 That's great! I have been to Bosnia and Herzegovina! Sarajevo and Mostar and Kravice :)) Amazing memories there :)) You are welcome to France anytime! Did you like Mulhouse? I have never been there. I have a friend there, he invites me everytime but I dont go lol I live in the north of France so it is very far from the east.
Great video. It's awful to see that Lebanon which had already suffered a 25 year long civil war that was sort of a precursor to the sectarian conflict that has plagued Iraq and Syria in recent decades is once again facing the real possibility of state collapse and civil war.
@Anthony well 15 years of actual combat, but the country didn’t really regain its sovereignty for 25-30 years: until 2000 Israel had a strip in the south that at first formed a South Lebanon puppet government and later became a direct Israeli military territory, while Syria basically held the rest of the Lebanon as a protectorate under a 1991 agreement, later extending across the whole country after Israel’s withdrawal until Syria itself withdrew in 2005. Of course shortly thereafter Hezbollah took advantage of the power vacuum and started down the road to the current situation with the 2006 Lebanon War against Israel.
@Anthony thank you for sharing you perspective, it certainly gives angle to all of this. I was of course talking from a purely military standpoint when referring to the country’s sovereignty, as in the difference between literal boots on the ground vs foreign influence.
@Anthony I am glad to see more of your perspective on this, it’s very informative of the situation. However there’s some confusion, I’m not an academic, the channel creator Dr Ker-Linsay however is an academic
Currently I reside very close to the Lebanese border in Israel, at night if you look over the mountain separating the countries, you can see Lebanon completely in the dark. the only lit parts are Hezbollah bases and positions which shows you who really has power in that country. its surreal
Good video, but when looking at the financial crisis, one should keep in mind the central bank's actions. The "financial engineering" policies in 2016 and the constant lending to a corrupt and bankrupt government led to a huge loss of foreign currency which culminated in the 2019 crisis. Corruption is the biggest reason, and I felt like it was merely glossed over. Local politicians from every background and with every foreign policy outlook needed and still need each other to keep the status quo going. They own the banks and big corporations and marry from each other's families :) Yes, geopolitics always has a role, but local issues are a major factor too.
Thank you. You are right. Corruption is a huge element to this. I didn’t go into as much detail about it as I could, and perhaps should, have done. But my focus tends to be on international relations and so I do usually look at this primarily. But points really well taken and much appreciated.
Very well presented video. It never felt like you dwelled on any particular aspect of your presentation at the expense of a holistic picture of the crisis. I also very much appreciated the extra reading you provided. God bless.
Thanks for the video. I agree with you on how you present the case based on info obtained through data aggregates provided by rough estimates through WB and UN platforms. However, what I believe is missing in the analysis can presumably be summed up in a few points: 1) Prior to 2019 Lebanon was described as the most successful failed state by Lust (2019) in her book "The Middle East". 2) As a Lebanese who lives in Lebanon I am observing that the dire circumstances you are mentioning in the analysis are impacting a portion of the population likely the middle class. Other portions seem to greatly benefit from the situation. As such you hear people complaining but few hit the streets to protest unless they were pushed by a political party. 3) There has always been a parallel informal market in Lebanon controlled by people that are anecdotally supported political parties. This parallel market has always benefited from the present/absent stance of the government to strive. 4) In my opinion the most important factor that has been overshadowed by most analyses is psychological. Its roots lay in the problematic that people's morality is greatly divergent from ethics. As such the norm in Lebanon is to break the law.
A comment on your 4th point you consider to be the most important factor. The reasoning must be reversed: Lebanese breaking the law did not weaken the state, but exactly the opposite - the weakness of the state and its carelessness toward the citizen gave, over decades, a clear signal to the people to each rely on herself and not to respect the laws.. every Lebanese is taught to establish its "own state".
@@simona5592 That's if you consider that state and people are two distinct entities. A state is nothing but the sum of individuals that meet based on collective ideas, interests and ideologies, such that they establish a system that governs their existence in the system. That narrative of blaming failure on state/ or its absence is counterintuitive as it has been always used by lebanese people to justify their law breach to shortcut their way to quick benefit. This narrative is a reflection of the lebanese mentality that has lead to state failure. Empathy with the people of Lebanon is by helping them see their mistakes rather than justifying them.
@@abedhajjchehadeh3305 Thank you for explaining something ive thought of for some time, I knew this but couldnt explain it, do u have any articles or info that could help understand point 4?"4) In my opinion the most important factor that has been overshadowed by most analyses is psychological. Its roots lay in the problematic that people's morality is greatly divergent from ethics. As such the norm in Lebanon is to break the law." Its okay if you dont, im currently reading 12 rules for life by Jordan Peterson, thanks.
@@rayanjalaluddinallibnani3154 There are no studies dealing with this point to my knowledge. I started writing something in 2019 before the onset of protests, but then things accelerated quickly and I couldn't get past the introduction. Apologies
Great video, can you do a video on South Africa and how we are pretty much now a failed state as well. Our politicians have also been involved in terrible corruption and our countries situation is similar to Lebanon with water and electricity shortages. Jist last year there were terrible riots. Would love to see if you think there is a solution to our countries crisis especially since we are only 28 years out of apartheid and are a young democracy.
Thank you for yet another great video. I don't think the thinks can get any worse than they are right now. The west should help financially under certain conditions, the main one been Hezballah non-involvement. The conflict with Israel is unlikely, since Lebanon is has a weak military, and Syria has its own mess.
Thanks. Something needs to be done. But it is hard to see how it can be fixed. If the local politicians won’t act, even when living in the midst of it, then it is hard to see what outsiders can do. An utterly tragic situation. Regarding Israel, the worry is that a very heavily armed Hezbollah could take over. Backed by Iran, the worry is that it would start attacking Israel.
@@JamesKerLindsay Lebanon has two major problems. The Syrian refugees and Hezbollah. Lebanon has no means to take care of a Million of Syrian refugees and Hezbollah which took Lebanon as a hostage and are encouraged by Iran. Lebanon by itself is hopeless. They cannot put pressure on Assad to have them and others back. I think that Assad expects political gain and only after he will agree to get his refugees back. Can it be that he expects to annex Lebanon and make Syria the Great Syria as it once was? As for Hezbollah-they have a strong Army and they won't leave Lebanon by themselves. Only an International force will do the job but when did you see it was done lately? Further more. If Hezbollah will feel itself with its back against the wall, he will turn fighting against Israel at Iran urging. Bottom line - I see no solution and all we have to do is wait and see.
Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy & Iran is the leading supplier of illegal arms to Lebanon . This has become easier for Iran since they occupy Syria & other Iranian militias also control parts of Iraq.
@@ProndaCast you are the ones who should cry. While the iranian regime keeps supplying others with weapons, the iranian people are living in poverty. And yet they have reached nothing. Israel is stronger than ever before and iranians still suffering. Btw this is coming from a shia lebanese :)
To be fair I'm a Lebanese and Iran has been kinder than the US. US never helped us they only helped corrupt people lead the country. On the other hand, Iran is no saint but still better the Americans.
Beirut used To Be Called Paris of The Middle East, internal & External Factors Have Contributed To This Catastrophic Situation in Lebanon, once The most prosperous Country Now in The Brink. The Country Elites Have Been Looting The Country For Decades, james Thanks For Bringing This sensitive & important issues What A Widespread Corruption Can Do To Nations! Down The Corrupt Elites & Solidarity With The People.
Thank you so much for the comment. It really is a tragic situation. I went to Lebanon in the early 1990s, relatively soon after the end of the war. The country was already rebuilding and there was a lot of hope. It is so awful to see what has happened to it in the past few years. I do hope that it finds a way behind this latest crisis.
@@JamesKerLindsay - If you ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room (i.e. Hezbollah), there is no solution. Hezbollah is better armed than the Lebanese army - besides having the backing of Iran. Iran has no interest in maintaining Lebanese sovereignty, on the contrary, it wants to rule Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East. It doesn't really try to hide its intentions.
Spent some time at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut a few years ago. Not only the country but the people were some of the kindest people you will ever meet. I left before the explosion but from my colleagues and friends who are still there, have told me that it has really devastated the city and added yet another wound to the list of country. Lebanon is truly one of the few countries I have hope for and am immensely interested in for its future. There are many factors stacked against it, like the ongoing civil war in its neighboring country and the sponsoring of terrorist organizations by other governments. I fear that to truly be corrected and put back on a prosperous path, outside government intervention is going to be needed.
Thanks so much. I think many people share your views on Lebanon. It really is an incredible country. I have been interested in it since my teenage years. I went many years ago and it had a huge effect on me. It is amazing and tragic just how much it has been through.
I agree with your comment, i think outside intervention is the only solution. However, how does one intervene a ^sovereign state^? It's a lot harder than it sounds unfortunately
Just came across your channel and have binge watching all the videos. Great unbiased discussions that is very refreshing to hear. Could you discuss in one of your videos the conflicts happening in the South China Sea, about how China is building artifical man made islands?
Thank you so much! I am really glad you like the channel. And thanks for such a great suggestion. I have actually been thinking I should do a video on this. Let me see what I can do.
Thanks God I escaped Lebanon in 2017 because it was clear that it was going to a dramatic end, I am now in Europe which generously helping me to work here and send some aids to my family and if I didn’t do this we would be now in a very bad shape 😓 I will be all my life loyal to the country where I live now!
It really is an awful situation. On top of everything else that the country has been through. I would imagine that many in the diaspora are looking in with sadness and disappointment.
i returned from Lebanon where my Fiancé is from after spending one and a half month there, and it's heartbreaking, beirut is a hollow dark shell of what it used to be, it's sad
@@JamesKerLindsay it is! You never know how much your money is worth, people are depressed, and the city is extremely dark due to power cuts. Electricity is barely present and fuel costs 1/3 of a minimum wage paycheck for a full tank
I mean let's be honest. They need to clean up their sh*. There's so much conflict and hatred and corruption and attacks on neighboring countries. It's not beneficial to them in any way. They need to change their mindsets, and choose a path of peace, honesty, transparency, prosperity, kindness, unity. They can do it. They have that capacity.
Proffesor,I hope you don't forget the fact that hezbollah is the reason why we are unable to get out of this crisis,they have leaked files and voice files that suggest they are trying to establish an Iranian based colony, most politicians are extremely corrupt, and they have their own political factions and political parties.I believe that by sending you some of them,I could make a difference
Excellent video once again, illustrating the decline of “the Switzerland of the Middle East” to economic failure, religious conflicts and malign influence from certain players. Those people really have to go through a lot, that’s for sure. I wonder what a possible way out of this situation may look like.
@@fusionreactor7179 It used to be called like that, because it was a neutral country and an important regional financial center back in the 60s. Prof Ker-Lindsay mentions that brief period of economic prosperty in his video.
@@dontbelieveeverythingyouth8173 Beirut was called Paris of the Middle East, the country was often referred to as Switzerland of the Middle East for the reasons I described above (neutrality and banking system to mention two). You can also find interesting videos from Beirut in the 60s on RUclips.
Like so many countries before it, Lebanon was reasonably prosperous, when it was a secular country. Unfortunately when religious zealots take power, they eventually destroy everything. If a catastrophe is to be avoided it must remove the zealots from power, something no likely to happen. PS: Sadly Turkey may only be a few years behind.
Excellent analysis as always! If there is a state collapse, which would certainly be horrible, I wonder if it would draw Syria back in? If Syria wasn't decimated by a decade of civil war, I'd be almost certain it would see this as an opportunity to reunite with Lebanon. But given the situation today, I'm not at all sure!
Yes. As a Lebanese i can confirm this. Syria doesn't even claim Lebanon as its own independent country. There's even a Syrian socialist party here called SSNP whose members believe that this country belongs to one nation which is "Bilad el Sham" or "Greater Syria", a completely delusional argument seeing as Lebanon and Syria were never a single country previously just territories coincidentally under the rule of multiple empires in the past.
@@ajc5675 I also make RUclips videos (no where near as slick as James', of course) but the SNSP is a party I've wanted to make a video about for a long time. Please let me know if you would be willing to help me understand a few things about them - just a few quick questions.
@@FredoRockwell The SSNP is not technically an Arab nationalist Party. In Syria, it was initially not allowed into the governing National Progressive Front, which is led by the Ba'th ASP and includes only secular left-leaning parties, the fault of the SSNP's fascist roots. However, because it shares the basic Arab goal of erasing the borders drawn by the British and French Empires, and because it has a relatively powerful militia, and because it has a sizable following in Lebanon, the SSNP is sometimes allowed into the NPF in critical times.
This crisis was created in part by international crises outside of its borders and partly by the internal dynamics of a country that really had a hard road from the beginning. Those kinds of ethnic accommodation agreements don't ever seem to quite work in the long term--see Bosnia, South Sudan, maybe even Nigeria. Add to that the nature of Hezbollah. Like Hamas it is both a political and military force and also the most effective and home-grown aid organization in the area. It has both domestic political and terroristic international aims. Whatever solution there is going to be is going to require some fundamental reworking of the state, and some unique nation-building. I'd almost want to see the UN try to come in as some sort of trustee and govern for a period while redrawing the government up from scratch. I can actually see most other groups in Lebanon get behind this other than Hezbollah. Lebanon has so much potential. If relieved of some of its refugee burden and allowed to build on its historical and human assets it could again be very successful. This is one of the rare crises that is so bad and so bad for all actors involved you could actually see creative, fundamental rethinking start happening from the ground up. One can only hope.
Great video as always Prof. Lebanon is indeed a country at the very edge of failure in my experience (there). Perhaps only fresh memories of the 1975-90 war and Syria's bad example have prevented utter disaster. D.A., J.D., NYC (formerly Beirut)
There is usually a lot more than meets the eye and so much happens in the background that is not noticed. Lebanon is simply being torn to shreds by some politicians who have a lot to lose ( ie money in european banks) if they don't do as the west asks, and those who see western interferance as a continous attempt for control and in favour of a more stable and protected Israel. In between both, the average civilian goes sick and hungry. It's a battle of wills, it happens throughout history.
Thank you so much. I had long wanted to do a video on Lebanon. It is a country close to my heart, for a number of reasons. It would just have been nicer if it was a more positive story to tell.
A Christian nation that becomes majority Muslim will never end well no matter what. Of course Lebanon's close proximity to Israel never made the transition any smoother as it became a proxy of Iran through Hezbollah in its never ending warfare against the Jews..
There seems to have been an inevitability to the situation in Lebanon. When you premise governance on religious identity instead of individual human beings, such a state of affairs is to be expected at some point. All the more tragic since the Lebanese are excellent people.
10:18 i.e it is the most popular party (c.f. 2018 elections) in the history of Lebanon. Given its large electorate, and the number of seats it has, it is also the most under represented party.
I think wherever is that religion there is problem, conflict.People has to be blinded not to see correlation with that. Starting from Maroc, Mauritania, West Sahara, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia , Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Lebanon,Somalia, Yemen , Syria,Irak,Iran, Afganistan, Pakistan, part of Russia, part of China, part of India ,part of Myanmar , part of Philippines. Do You need more evidence?
excellet video but it even goes beyond that! the fact that lebanon is an importer, the balck market dolar rate, and the huge number of lebanese young adults that left the country to work and find stability in other countries!
Thank you so much. You are right. There are all sorts of factors that have also contributed to the situation. I didn't want to get too deep into it all though. Unfortunately, when making videos, a lot of information has to be cut out to keep the story moving along and avoid confusing people who might be entirely new to the situation. Still, I hope I got the main points across.
@@JamesKerLindsay You're totally right! Its good to see how you tackled a diff aspect of lebanon! Myself I am one of those lebanese young adults that left lebanon after the explosion to seek a calmer lifestyle and you're right explaining whats happeningnin lebanon is so difficult even lebanese can't comprehend!
@@BilalBaadarani Thanks. So sorry to hear that you had to leave the country. But I understand perfectly, I know how tough things are there. (I actually know the country well. I have had many Lebanese friends and my sister lived there for three years.) In any case, I hope you are doing well now, wherever you are.
Wrong info about “Palestinian refugees” due to the “partition of Palestinian and creation of Israel” - there was a war which included Lebanon, along with other Arab countries, attacking Israel, in which many Arabs emigrated from the area for various reasons. None of which was directly because of the creation of Israel
Ливанцы должны изгнать хезболлу и своих коррумпированных правителей. Когда Израиль предложил гуманитарную помощь, правители гордо отказались, не спросив голодных ливанцев.
Please world help Lebanon and it's people.We do not deserve that! It has tremendous potential in all sectors .The warlord politicians have stolen the government and the people s capital.This happened since the war ended in 1991.Instead of development they were stealing all the time .Inspite of all of this we were able to survive for 30 years through this.
Lebanon was Christian before it was Muslim Arab. Christianity was the official religion of the Roman then Byzantine Empire before the Arab conquest from the South. It would be interesting to see if Lebanese assert a pre Arab identity and assert themselves as Phoenicians not Arabs.
Most definitely.only muslims define themselves as arabs. Most Christians are not arabs we are Lebanese with extensive heritage and ancestors that was influenced but many cultures, but we can not deny and embrace our roots as Phoenicians
so interesting! And if I understand why British divided their mandate to muslim-arabic Transjordan and jewish Palestine, I do not understand why French divided their mandate to what is now modern Syria and Lebanon.
The last Christians who were honourable enough to fight for their religion and land were called 'Ouwet - Lebanese Forces'. The leader was killed 30+ yrs ago, and it has been in disarray since. Hopefully others are still left in Lebanon willing to fight for the same! My family all belonged to the Gemayel (Bashir Gemayel) party, and if possible I would LOVE to go back to Lebanon and do such; but there are not many like us anymore unfortunately
@@pcgeglobal656 - Bashir Gemayel wanted to make peace with Israel. That is probably why he was killed. It is interesting to imagine what might have been had he lived.
Objectivity demands the mention of some important factors: 1) The regional context which is generally dismal except in West-allied monarchies which are stable and prosperous 2) The withdrawal of gulf countries investments from Lebanon as a punishment for allowing continued participation of Hezbollah in government 3) That political leaders in Lebanon, having lived through a bloody civil war, are unwilling or unable to allow for a military confrontation between Western and Iranian proxies Corruption has and will always be in Lebanon, the region and the world
One should be asking why is it many Middle East countries are constantly in a state of war or inner turmoil. What is the underlying common thread that runs through all of them? Why does Israel a small and new country do so well economically and socially even though it is surrounded by mortal enemies bent on wiping it out. In other words what is the thing that makes these countries fall apart and what is the thing that keeps one of them stable and thriving?
Habibi Lebanon already collapsed the brink of disaster already happened. My family can barely make a living, my aunt makes like 20 dollars a month and they can’t even leave because the Government shuts down the embassy. They also ran out of Lebanese currency this week. Hezbolla wants all the Christians dead so they can take over and make it fully Muslim.
Subhan Allah, the situation is very dire ive seen shops on the verge of collapse, but no i doubt Hezbollah wants to kill Christians lol, the issue is Hezbollah has its ideals as a militant group, hence we should not treat them as a political group but a militia, we should keep them for their militant purposes nothing else, the issue is we allowed them to hold political power and our government did nothing to make peace with them as a neutral militant group (p.s its impossible to remove Hezbollah, they are useful as long as they are not a political entity in Lebanon). No one believes in the "religious utopia (that the whole world or country will be of one religion)" except ISIS and Al-Qaeda, will never happen, hebzollah is actually quite smart, they know these things, issue is because they are too political headed now, money will blind them but they wont go as far as trying to establish a "religious utopia." mind you no country has a pure religious foundation since the Rassanids, Ayyubids in the middle east and managed to maintain it, not even the ottomans had a religious government (it was purely Roman-Turkish), the only way youll have a fully Islamic government is when religious literacy reaches the level it was just after salahuddin ayyubi with the religious infrastructure basically at full power. There's hardly any religious literacy, the religious institutions are extremely weak, they only have power over minute social decisions i.e. marriage etc. The solution to the religious problem is this: Leave the new government purely to the demands of Lebanese leaders away from political interference or hand it over to a fully literate religious institution (which is practically impossible because there is none).
Tragic situation. Iran should take more blame since it is employing Hezbullah to fight Israel to the last Lebanese. I fear hezbullah and Iran might take the opportunity to attack Israel. The results will be bad for israel but horrific for Lebanon. It would look like Gaza.
Israel literally caused the creation of Hezoballah when they invaded Lebanon. Stop acting like Israel is this Angel that’s done nothing wrong when it’s basically a giant military base for imperialism in the region much like how South Africa was for Africa. And this is coming from a Lebanese
I work in an international company. When we recently had a Q/A session with our CEO, a question from Beirut was: will we increase our efforts to fight climate change. I was astonished by the stupidity of that question.
Averting the disaster will only give the corrupt officials more time and money for them to stay in power. Lebanon's main problem is in its constitution that gives certain groups and their families power based on their religion.
Professor, you forgot to mention about the 1.5 million refugees from Syria in Lebanon with a population of 5 million. Is UN or other countries paying Lebanon for its refugees? Turkey is getting paid $4.5 billion for its refugees, how about Lebanon?
Nobody talks about the fact that lebanon would have probably never resorted to this if it was established as a fully christian state and didn't have so many muslims entering it
@Jihad_Will_Win I'm not even talking about PLO or the civil war. The original sin was expanding lebanon into greater lebanon in the french mandate. Maronites sealed their fate already back then
@Jihad_Will_Win The french expanded the original idea of maronite lebanon into what became the mandate. That's why it's called "greater lebanon". And many maronites stupidly pushed and lobbied for that expansion fron france when the opportunity came after the ottoman empire collapsed.
wrong ... the British had the task of managing the Palestinian mandate. Not "Palestine" and "Jordan" The Palestinian mandate included what is today known as Israel and Jordan
It would be interesting to speculate on some sort of "what if"/alternate history type scenario in which Lebanon manages to avoid the 1975 civil war and all the problems that have afflicted Lebanon ever since. It would be even more interesting if Lebanon manages to keep its Christian majority and becomes to Mideastern Christians what Israel is to the Jews. In short, a Lebanon that remains economically vibrant from 1975 down to the present day and that could at least start to be compared to nearby Cyprus or Israel in terms of prosperity.
Lebanon is just the canary in the coal mine. The first of many failed states in the ME to come to a complete disaster. The common link between all these failing states in the ME is the fact that they were articifical creations of Mr Sykes and Mr Picot, with no regard to any real nationalistic basis for forming a country. Without a cohesive society (on which most successful states are built) the resultant corruption, violence and economic disaster is almost a certainty. Instead of trying to save Lebanon, the world would do the people there a great favor by just letting nature take its course, with the outcome being an independent Christian state, an independent Sunni state, and an independent Shia state, as it should have been set up as to begin with.
04:45 I have to note so that Jordan expelled those 10,000s of Palestinans as according to Jordan several terrorist actions had been conducted by Palestinian terrorist groups wich then had been accepted by Lebanon and many of those have now to life a sad life of being citizen of no country as they are stateless and forbidden to work in Lebanon often too
@@yakov95000 Don't forget to add Sabra and Shatila along with all the murderous work in Lebanon pus the work of your allies, Al Qaida and ISIS, in Syria.
@@ashleyKennedy5 where was I talking about Israel? I just mentioned that Jordan expelled many Palestinians due to acusitions... I dont want to hold a debate who is right about the Israel Palestine conflict.
@Professor James, you spent a lot of time on the hirstry of Lebanon (very interesting) but very little on the recent crisis. Their government has nto met for months. The World Bank and the IMF should just pull out until they get their act together (never)
I think that the only way Lebanon could be back on track is some kind of sub-economic annexation from (could have been Syria but they also need help )Israel but that wouldn't be easy .
Why do western journalists/analysts constantly refer it as "the brink/verge" of disaster? What more criteria points would a nation need to fill before calling it for what it is? Venezuela and Palestine offer electricity to their own citizens more than the Lebanese state, bear in mind.
Thank you so much! I As it happens, a large part of the reason I wanted to set up the channel was because I remember just how little we discussed real world events when I was doing my studies. I always wanted to relate ideas I was learning to what was happening in the news. Anyway, this is my chance to hopefully contribute to that sort of discussion! :-)
This is such a great video! I think we are getting spoiled by the quality of your channel :) While we promote multiculturalism around the world , to my knowledge there is not a single democratic country that has divided people by religion that is poor and stable. The only thing that can hold a country with those divisions is money. Perfect example of failed multi religious countries is Bosnia and Lebanon. What is going to happen to a country that is rich, but gets into an economic collapse ? History shows civil war. I know that this is very, and i mean very controversial topic to talk about, but is the solution putting problems under the carpet ? Don't get me wrong, i do not hate any religion, any culture, i just think that when people get used to something that is giving them a peace of their mind (religion) there is very high chance that they will stick to it till the end of their lives.
Good, comprehensive video, Professor. One shortcoming, however, is that it underplays Hezbollah's control over the country (in all the places that matter, at least). Hezbollah indeed has already seized control.
Thanks. I tried to convey some of that, noting that they have MPs, seats in government, etc. But perhaps it didn’t get across just how significant it already is. The key question is whether they make that overt, and what this would mean.
@@mmh1922 well you shouldn't disagree. It's a fact. The most blatant thing in this country is that Hezbollah is a growing cancer that isolates its people and brainwashes them by calling itself "the islamic resistance" and antagonizing anyone who goes against their ideology. Just like every other party they exploit their followers and divide them based on sectarian lines but the BIGGEST difference is that Hezb is a LITERAL militia that obeys the Iranian regime and does whatever Khomeini tells them to do. The corrupt politicians you are talking about are literally Hezb and their biggest Christian ally FPM whom together own the majority of the ruling cabinet. How can you point fingers or blame anyone else if they're the ones who run the country?
![Yeat & Quavo - 5BRAZY [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4XxnTAwyxus/mqdefault.jpg)
Lebanon is a fascinating country, albeit one with an incredibly difficult and tragic history. But how can it find its way out of the current mess? And do we really need to worry about the possibility of a return to conflict, either internally or regionally? Thoughts and comments below.
And as always, do consider subscribing or, even better, becoming a channel member. All support is really appreciated:
www.RUclips.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join
Would the situation in Syria not be a deterrent for the public to try something similar in Lebanon ? Surely, they would not want an endless civil war as is the case with their neighbours.
@@anirudhparthasarathy3387 Believe me some people in Lebanon want the war to come back. They've been talking about it since 2011 because in their minds Lebanon can be divided. Those people are the Lebanese Forces led by former warlord Samir Geagea (convicted murderer). This party is the second largest Christian party behind the FPM that was created by the current president Michel Aoun (former head of the army and the only person that called out the flaws of the Taïf Agreement that is the cause of our problems). The LF think they can beat Hezbollah in a war. We all know they can't. They blame him to be a militia, yet they are worse than him. Just google Samir Geagea crimes and you'll know what I mean. His a Saudi puppet and it's first man in Lebanon because there is not a big sunni figure anymore. This guy wants to fight Hezbollah but doesn't even talk about the leader of corruption Nabih Berri(speaker of parliament since 1992 leader of Amal a militia in the war google him). Amal and Hezbollah are the Shia Duo. Amal is corrupt Hezbollah isn't, but Hezbollah doesn't want a Shia-Shia conflict. The FPM and Hezbollah had an agreement that prevented a return to war back in 2006. The main thing the FPM demanded was to erase corruption from the state. Last month Hezbollah and the LF (both enemies) backed Amal in a decision that breached the constitution just to make the FPM look bad. The FPM is being fought for 2 reasons: wanting to end corruption and being an ally to Hezbollah. So now the FPM-Hezbollah relations are heated and we are heading to parliamentary elections and in october this parliament will elect the new president of Lebanon. This a breif explanation of the situation here. If you're intrested I can give you more details about each party. The situation here is so complex that you need to live here to understand and don't trust what you here from the media and specially Lebanese media.
@SRI Standard Indian far right nonsense which has little to no basis on facts @James : reported the comment for inciting hate.
@@anirudhparthasarathy3387 Yeah that is nonsense. In Lebanon the situation with syrian refugees is bad because we can't control who is a former membre of ISIS or not but to say muslims are terrorists that's not true
@@julienhabib8480 I wouldn't take this guy's word for it. his entire comment is flawed and he's obviously an fpm supporter. First of all both Hezbollah and Amal are corrupt and just like the lebanese forces the fpm and Hezbollah committed atrocities during the civil war the fpm continuesly bombed Beirut killing civilians. Meanwhile Hezbollah spews lies about wanting to free Palestine yet had partaken in the massacre of the yarmouk Palestinian refugees camp in syria, in which the Assad regime used chemical weapons and left hundreds of thousands of Palestinians homeless. As for the fpm fighting corruption the only fighting it has done so far is prosecute comedians and revolutionaries by military court, such as Gino raidy, chaden esperanza, and Hussein qaouk who are influencers and comedians that have been called to appear and be prosecuted by the military court. they are all equally corrupt as the fpm recently have bailed out a serial rapist by the name of Marwan Habib that had been issued a presidential pardon, he would go on to rape a woman in a hotel in Florida and have now been prosecuted and jailed in the state of Florida.
And both Hezbollah the fpm and lebanese forces continue to shame attack and protest against the families that lost their children and relatives during the Beirut port explosion.
The fpm and Hezbollah heavily control the media and pose a risk to our freedom of speech as each party has their own tv channel. a year back a hezbollah critic by the name of lokman sleem was assassinated by obviously the one's he criticized Hezbollah, and the fpm who are in power refuse to seek justice and the case has been put to rest, as to the fpms (Free patriotic movement) request. And other investigators in the Beirut blast have gone missing such as The costumes colonel mounir Abu rjeily who was assassinated to prevent the case from going forward.
So you can start doing your own research on the situation starting with the names I've given or you can believe this uneducated person's propaganda.
I'm Lebanese, and I usually don't speak up on the matter but here it goes.
The problem is not with the refugees, nor the "animosity" with Israel, nor any regional conflict. The people who are in charge have come together to literally loot the rest of the population.
The current crisis in Lebanon is 90% self-inflicted. Not by the general population, but by the people who are in charge.
In this country, you have the option of supporting the looters by granting them legitimacy in return for some benefits (a good job, evading prosecution, etc...) while giving yourself the false illusion of supporting whatever grand cause they claim to be fighting for.
You also have the option of not doing that, losing the benefits, and simply not voting for them. While this doesn't sound particularly bad, this places you head to head against those who do in basically every aspect of life.
Want to start a new business? Sure go for it, as soon as it takes off, a competitor backed by the political parties will be created with the sole purpose of getting you to shut down. As they don't have to comply with tax law for example, but you do.
Want to open up a Toyota dealership? Open a ketchup factory? Plant some lettuce? Sorry, if you don't pledge your allegiance, there's no way you'll get a permit, and even if you do, you'll be out of business soon. In most cases, even if you're a loyal supporter and your business takes a bite out of the big guys' share, you're immediately dealt the same hand.
Now, how does one survive? Well you can work for a company! And good luck getting anything other than a morbid salary and 0 prospects of promotion if you don't think the same way as your boss. Good luck getting the job in the first place.
You can't even open a PayPal account to work for offshore clients and get your money in easily.
But, for many years, there was something lucrative going on, for some reason, while everything was going to shit, banks were offering ever increasing interests for foreign currency deposits. The trade deficit has been negative since 2011, so the crisis should have started then and there, but it was postponed by ever increasing interest rates that reached up to 30% in 2019 just before the crisis. Essentially, the central bank had been issuing foreign currency bonds that were bought by local banks in order to cover that trade deficit. This obliterated the economy, not even the people in charge or the ones following them were interested in opening up a profitable business, just putting money in the bank was more profitable with almost no risk to be known (at the time).
Everyone bought into the lie that banking secrecy always attracted foreign deposits in banks, and that the banking sector was rock solid because this was the rhetoric played by all media outlets (which are also all controlled by the same folks).
Want to start an opposing party? You will be obliterated by all media outlets even those claiming to oppose one another.
By the way, the people in charge claim to have big differences in ideology and opinions, and appear to resent one another yet under the table they are co-owners of lots of businesses.
We do not have electricity because the people in charge preferred renting boats that have generators on them over building power plants (which could have costed 10x less). The deal included a cut per kilowatthour for the brokers.
The port explosion happened, because the ammonium nitrates were never moved due to a bureaucratic nightmare, that included an argument about who should be selling the seized material. Some say that they were imported and stored for the benefit of the Syrian gov, but I won't go into that. Peoples' lives didn't matter as much either way.
In conclusion, this system is rotten to its core. There's no way the problem will be resolved, not even by a miracle, if the same clientelistic mentality remains. People have lost their savings. Salaries are the same for the average Joe, yet prices have increased 18 fold and are still increasing day in and day out.
Thank you so much for such a long and helpful comment. I really appreciate it. I really didn’t go into as much details about the corruption as perhaps I should have. This really helps to show just how deep the problem is. It really is a tragic situation. I have long had a very soft spot for Lebanon. It is an incredible country and I have had many Lebanese friends over the years. In fact, my sister lived in Beirut for three years! I really do hope there is some way out of this. Wishing you all my very best from London.
Yo2borne rabbak! Kalem jawehir.
@@JamesKerLindsay You should also be wary of classifying the conflict of 1975 as that of Palestinians vs Christians. It really was the continuation of the conflict of 1958 (which wasn't strictly about panarabism but also about changing the status quo of maronite/french domination over the government and the economy) but with the Palestinians as a a new actor on the left.
Learned more from your response about the real ground situation than anywhere else... Thank you for sharing...I wish there was a way for you all to start a farming community... The whole world is going through a transition phase it appears, some countries are just hit harder than others currently (Lebanon, Australia, Venezuela..ect)... Trust in the Lord, it's really the only thing we can do..
Thank you Georgia. This is coming to all countries I think.
My heart goes out to the people of Lebanon, it hurts seeing one of the most beautiful countries in the world go through this I know people are suffering I just wish they weren't put through all this.
Love from lebanon❤🇱🇧
c'est triste un pays si riche devenu l'horreur qui sont les responsables ?
autres gouvernements de contrôle
#FJBidon
Awww, you feel sorry and wish and pray for Lebanon like many here but won't peek behind the curtain to look at reality. Nor will you lift a finger to hold accountable the people from your community that have and are causing this suffering.
What good are your shallow and pathetic words?
I am from Lebanon ... hope it all works out 🙏🇱🇧❤
Much Love and Support to you! 🇱🇧❤ GOD BLESS LEBANON 🇱🇧❤
wow, thank you. I've started to tell people I know that in 2022, your channel may be the most important one on youtube. i just have an uneasy feeling it's going to be a crazy year internationally.
My parents told me about the Lebanon crisis when they were younger, the civil war from 1975-1990. It was so complicated yet fascinating and sad to hear about.
Thanks for your video on it James. Lebanon and the Middle East, especially, really seem to intrigue me. Hopefully the country can overcome all it's problems soon. 🙂 Enjoy your weekend!
Thanks so much. Lebanon has always fascinated me. I mentioned in the recent Q&A video that it was what really got me started on International relations and conflict studies; although, ironically, I ended up specialising on nearby Cyprus. But it is an amazing country. And it's so sad to see it suffering so badly, after everything else that it has been through. I am so glad you liked it.
By the way, just to give you a heads up, I am planning to continue the Middle East theme this week. I'm hoping to take a look at the Iran nuclear talks. This is another topic I have been meaning to take a look at for ages.
It’s terrifying how a State can make or break a Nation
As a number of european countries will have muslim majorities around 2060 Lebanon is a good case of study of what could become Europe.
Which european countries?
I remember that in the 1970s, before the civil war, they called Lebanon the “Switzerland of the Middle East.” Every time they call a country, other than Switzerland, the Switzerland of X, they jinxed it and doom it to failure.
In any case, the World Bank and the United Nations can say what they want, but the issue is what can be done about it and who will do it. The answer to which are who knows and only Lebanon, because if they expect outside help, namely from the West, they can dream on because it ain’t gonna happen. I hope, because we don’t need to get involved in yet another foreign civil war.
Not always, but often. Singapore, as the "Switzerland of Asia" is pretty stable and successful... so far ;)
I'm not sure that outside help from the West is not on the agenda. For instance, a stable Lebanon is in the best interest of the EU - just think of the possible impliciations of major conflict - Lebanon already has a large number of refugees from the Syrian civil war. If Lebanon falls, then wouldn't it be realistic to see a large refugee crisis in Europe?
@@travelmentaryTV They also used to cal Uruguay or Paraguay. I can’t remember which, the Switzerland of South America.
@@travelmentaryTV I’m in California, so Lebanon is not on USA’s radar what with the invasion we’re having from Central America, Ukraine, China, and all. That said, Lebanon could become yet another refugee crisis for the EU.
@@carlosmiro4932 Yeah you’re right, it’s Uruguay, I suppose. It’s also considered a stable and democratic country that keeps itself out of conflicts and therefore attracts capital. I find it interesting to see videos from Lebanon in the 60s. Quite different from the situation now…
I was in Beirut 3 years ago and I really liked it.
this is really a shame of course.
I hope it can all work out for the people.
Thanks. It really is an amazing country, isn't it? I also hope that it can find a way past the current situation soon.
@@JamesKerLindsay
I actually had the privilege of going to Lebanon twice.
Once was just to Baalbek.
The second time I got to go from north to south.
Amazing food and very friendly people and never had a problem of any kind.
Thank you for your great objectivity and for depicting all the major events without falling into giving too much details
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. It was really nice of you to comment on not giving too much detail. Usually, I get complaints that I left things out. But as I always try to explain, it is really easy to overwhelm people who are new to a subject with too much information. I do try to focus on what is really necessary for viewers. So it’s really nice when someone says I got it right! :-)
Another great video!
It’s just such a shame, especially for those locals suffering; not only was Beirut a jewel of a city prior to the civil war, but it had seemingly rekindled that magic for a brief window in the late 2000s and early 2010s, there was no more occupation and tourism was back.
A guy I know, who I saw a lot in the early 2010s and is a Lebanese Christian, would often go on trips once or twice a year and tell us crazy stories about the clubs of Beirut. Despite the ongoing presence of Hezbollah in the country the impression I got at the time was that Lebanon was moving past the conflict into normalcy; what’s happened in the decade since, especially in the last 3 years, is quite disheartening, despite my always trying to see optimistic directions things could go in, for this situation doesn’t seemingly have many directions it can go that seem positive.
It really is such a complicated and precarious situation. There are just so many factors preventing any movements toward a solution. To start with you’ve got a state hamstrung by a Bosnia-like constitution, which basically does not function at all (but to be fair both Lebanon and Bosnia’s constitutions are brilliant pieces of compromise and were absolutely necessary to end the respective wars), so that’s bad enough, but then there’s the whole issue of the dozens of other minority sects and thousands of foreign refugees in the country. Then over the top of all that you lob in the wild card of Hezbollah setting up a state-within-a-state, on the surface playing nice with the current Republic of Lebanon regime, participating in parliamentary politics in Beirut while basically creating their own one-party fascist regime in the areas they control, even launching independent military actions that can bring the country to war without the Lebanese government ever lifting a finger (as was the case even in 2006, a time when the reborn Lebanon was on the upswing compared to now).
This situation is an example of how Hezbollah’s playing the Republic’s parliamentary game makes the situation even more complicated, because who exactly is representing what side can sometimes be unclear, though this current scenario is clearly better than civil war. (However it could be argued that Hezbollah, as part of the current government, has contributed to the wide-scale government corruption that has caused the current crisis)
However I’m not sure if the current situation will even allow for this compromise status quo, that provided at least a veneer of normality for the about 15 years, to continue. The government is basically powerless, and in my opinion this power vacuum, which is slowly continuing to open, will eventually be filled by internal and external opportunists. Countries in Lebanon’s current condition are those which see coups, civil wars, and other unpleasant scenarios. In the case of a collapse of the current regime in Beirut, there is a very real possibility that Hezbollah deposes it and takes over a majority of the country, which would result in immediate war with Israel. It would also result in some kind of a return to the nightmare of the past, as the Christian west and Sunni north would likely not accept a Hezbollah regime and would form their own rival governments, probably each with foreign support. That’s the tough part about this situation that I find very similar to the Balkans: if war breaks out the battle lines have already been drawn and used before, making a slip back into conflict all too easy
Prayers for those suffering, and optimistically hoping that they somehow find that path out of this situation before it gets worse, but at present as optimistic as I try to be I’m struggling to find very many paths to that scenario.
“Despite the ongoing presence of Hezbolla” do you see how uninformed you are? Have you been to Lebanon? Ask anyone who has, I promise they would tell you they’ve never even seen a member of Hezbolla! The problem is with the garbage system that was laid by Europe KSA and USA.
@@Beyrouth_ hezbollah in the country, not in the city…
@@TheLocalLt Not in the city and not even in the southernmost village would you find a spec of Hezbollah. Sure they exist, but are mainly a force of deterrence against Israel. When did Hezb ever kidnap tourists? Never. When did they ever even threaten to do so? Never. Hezb is an integral part of the system and don’t get me wrong, they’re not perfect they have their faults. But the same usual bullshit that everyone spouts “the problem is Hezbolla” is just complete and utter nonsense.
@@Beyrouth_ so you “wouldn’t find a spec of hezbollah” yet they’re an “integral part of the system”, got it.
My point is their presence in an area would make it unsafe for visitors from abroad, such as my friend, by exerting one-party control over these places.
@@TheLocalLt an integral part of the system because they attend the parliamentary discussions, dressed in suits and not in militia gear 😂
How is it unsafe for your friend? To each their own. Keep living in whatever fantasy you want 👌🏼
With all due respect and thank you for raising awareness of my country. But what you said isn’t 5% of what caused the problem.
I'm researching Lebanon for my studies, and I'm curious to hear what you think the biggest problems facing your country are. Would you mind sharing?
Thank you for covering this! I am Lebanese and I spoke before on my small channel about Lebanon. I will be making a documentary on the banking crisis there.
I am making this documentary too 😳 😄. want to compare notes? or combine efforts?
The Lebanon is a nihilist state… everything is self inflicted… it’s an example of what can happen to a country which has a multicultural, multi religious, multi tribal society… America is following in its shadow… 😕
Lebanon is a metaphor of former Afghanistan government.- the love of money is the root to all kind of evil.
Nevertheless this is a good overview video of Lebanon from what it was and what it is becoming.
Thank you very much. It really is terrible to see what is happening in Lebanon and the corruption that has not only caused it, but also stops it from being resolved.
I visited Lebanon many times and I can say that it is absolutely one of the most beautiful countries I have visited. It is sad to see the situation there. But Lebanese people and especially young generation should not leave their country and let the so called "refugees" take over their beautiful country and replace its talented, educated and brilliant population. GOD BLESS LEBANON 🇱🇧❤
what do you mean so called "refugees" are they not ?
@@iamannocent2913 you wouldn't call your self a "refugee" when you can go back to your country then come back and enter multiple times then the refugee statue will no long suit you..the so called syrian refugee in Lebanon their presence became for pure economical and demographicale reasons and not "life threatening=refugee". They use the money of UN to stay in Lebanon...they do not want to go back to their country which more than 90% of it there is no war and its safe..thats why they go and come back!
@@shapereinhardt3151 Thank you!! This is exactly what's happening with the "refugee" situation over here. Meanwhile the Turks are complaining.
Excellent video! I had no idea that Lebanon is still in such a dire state!
Thank you so much Roger. Yes, it has really gone unnoticed by much of the international media. And yet it is such an awful and dangerous situation. I wanted to do it as I have a sincere affection for Lebanon. I went many years ago and have had many Lebanese friends over the years.
I hope all is well with you. Have a good weekend.
What an amazing and informative 10 min video!
Watching this from Lebanon while sitting in darkness wrapped up in a blanket because there's no electricity to light up heaters in this freezing cold weather...
Jordan will start to supply to Lebanon electricity and Israel natural gas. Sorry for all your suffering.
🇱🇧 I know next to 0 about Lebanon. So thanks for this video James!
Thanks. I hope you find it useful and interesting. It is an incredibly complex history to try to condense down. But I hope that it provides a readily understandable overview of the situation. I actually have a real soft spot for Lebanon. It is an amazing country.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks. It was very interesting and useful. Keep up the informative videos please James. 🙂
Very interesting to know all of the historical context, thank you for the video. Lebanon has always been very curious for me and the situation right now is very unfortunate - the humanitarian and economic crisis. It is unfortunate that more states are not willing to share the responsibility in rehabilitating the refugees. I often see protests from the Lebanese community against their government inaction in major place in Paris such as Place de la République or Champ-de-Mars. Following the explosion, there was a highly publicised visit of Président Macron (which he followed up twice - with vague promises of following up the cabinet inaction).
From the historical context, I have a question though, the current generation of the Palestinians who came as refugees in 1948 - are the identified as Lebanese Sunni or Palestinians ?
Have a good weekend !
Lebanon grants citizenship based on several factors but always keeping a keen eye on sectarian balance within the Lebanese community
I'm addition, Palestinians are not granted Lebanese or any other Arab nationality ( except for Jordan in some cases) the reason being not to grant the Israelis a solution for the Palestinian crisis - a result of Israeli occupation - out of the pockets of the Arab states.....
Palestinians in general and especially muslims are not granted Lebanese citizenship
Most of the Palestinian refugees are Sunni, but the Lebanese government didn't grant them citizenship along (same story with the Syrian refugees) as that would shift the balance of sects in the country; They care so much about the balance of power that Lebanese women can't give citizenship to their children, and in most cases the non Lebanese husband is Arab meaning Sunni. FYI, under Lebanese law Palestinians are banned from practicing over 40 types of jobs including medical ones.
Thoughts and prayers 🙏 for Lebanon from Croatia
Croatia ❤ Lebanon
I am French and I have visited many times Croatia and Lebanon. And I think that both countries have many things in common. They are both very beautiful countries, and their pooulations is also very welcoming, friendly and very beautiful too :) Also, both countries are losing their young people who are leaving the country for better opportunities. I fall in love with both countries since my very first days there. That's why I came back many times to both of them :))
@@ravivmadar2422 Thank you ❤️
I also have story to tell.
I visited France 3 year's ago. City of Strasbourg. It's an instant love. Architecture, people, food ... Waiting pandemic to pass so I can go back !
@@daxsh4621 Great! I am not from Strasbourg but I have been there last year. It is an amazing city! Did you visit Colmar ? Where in Croatia are you from ?
@@ravivmadar2422 I'm Croat from Herzegovina but currently living in capital of Croatia , Zagreb.
My friends live in Lorrach near Basel and every time I visit them, I take some time to go in France to see Mulhouse , Strasbourg and a region ...
I'm much more fan of France then Germany or Swizz 😀
@@daxsh4621 That's great! I have been to Bosnia and Herzegovina! Sarajevo and Mostar and Kravice :)) Amazing memories there :)) You are welcome to France anytime! Did you like Mulhouse? I have never been there. I have a friend there, he invites me everytime but I dont go lol I live in the north of France so it is very far from the east.
Great video. It's awful to see that Lebanon which had already suffered a 25 year long civil war that was sort of a precursor to the sectarian conflict that has plagued Iraq and Syria in recent decades is once again facing the real possibility of state collapse and civil war.
@Anthony well 15 years of actual combat, but the country didn’t really regain its sovereignty for 25-30 years: until 2000 Israel had a strip in the south that at first formed a South Lebanon puppet government and later became a direct Israeli military territory, while Syria basically held the rest of the Lebanon as a protectorate under a 1991 agreement, later extending across the whole country after Israel’s withdrawal until Syria itself withdrew in 2005.
Of course shortly thereafter Hezbollah took advantage of the power vacuum and started down the road to the current situation with the 2006 Lebanon War against Israel.
@Anthony thank you for sharing you perspective, it certainly gives angle to all of this. I was of course talking from a purely military standpoint when referring to the country’s sovereignty, as in the difference between literal boots on the ground vs foreign influence.
@Anthony I am glad to see more of your perspective on this, it’s very informative of the situation.
However there’s some confusion, I’m not an academic, the channel creator Dr Ker-Linsay however is an academic
Currently I reside very close to the Lebanese border in Israel, at night if you look over the mountain separating the countries, you can see Lebanon completely in the dark. the only lit parts are Hezbollah bases and positions which shows you who really has power in that country. its surreal
Thanks. Very interesting indeed to hear that.
Wow! I guess they spent all their time complaining about Israel
not since 2006
Good video, but when looking at the financial crisis, one should keep in mind the central bank's actions. The "financial engineering" policies in 2016 and the constant lending to a corrupt and bankrupt government led to a huge loss of foreign currency which culminated in the 2019 crisis. Corruption is the biggest reason, and I felt like it was merely glossed over. Local politicians from every background and with every foreign policy outlook needed and still need each other to keep the status quo going. They own the banks and big corporations and marry from each other's families :) Yes, geopolitics always has a role, but local issues are a major factor too.
Thank you. You are right. Corruption is a huge element to this. I didn’t go into as much detail about it as I could, and perhaps should, have done. But my focus tends to be on international relations and so I do usually look at this primarily. But points really well taken and much appreciated.
Very well presented video. It never felt like you dwelled on any particular aspect of your presentation at the expense of a holistic picture of the crisis. I also very much appreciated the extra reading you provided. God bless.
Thanks for the video. I agree with you on how you present the case based on info obtained through data aggregates provided by rough estimates through WB and UN platforms. However, what I believe is missing in the analysis can presumably be summed up in a few points:
1) Prior to 2019 Lebanon was described as the most successful failed state by Lust (2019) in her book "The Middle East".
2) As a Lebanese who lives in Lebanon I am observing that the dire circumstances you are mentioning in the analysis are impacting a portion of the population likely the middle class. Other portions seem to greatly benefit from the situation. As such you hear people complaining but few hit the streets to protest unless they were pushed by a political party.
3) There has always been a parallel informal market in Lebanon controlled by people that are anecdotally supported political parties. This parallel market has always benefited from the present/absent stance of the government to strive.
4) In my opinion the most important factor that has been overshadowed by most analyses is psychological. Its roots lay in the problematic that people's morality is greatly divergent from ethics. As such the norm in Lebanon is to break the law.
A comment on your 4th point you consider to be the most important factor. The reasoning must be reversed: Lebanese breaking the law did not weaken the state, but exactly the opposite - the weakness of the state and its carelessness toward the citizen gave, over decades, a clear signal to the people to each rely on herself and not to respect the laws.. every Lebanese is taught to establish its "own state".
@@simona5592 That's if you consider that state and people are two distinct entities. A state is nothing but the sum of individuals that meet based on collective ideas, interests and ideologies, such that they establish a system that governs their existence in the system.
That narrative of blaming failure on state/ or its absence is counterintuitive as it has been always used by lebanese people to justify their law breach to shortcut their way to quick benefit. This narrative is a reflection of the lebanese mentality that has lead to state failure. Empathy with the people of Lebanon is by helping them see their mistakes rather than justifying them.
@@abedhajjchehadeh3305 Thank you for explaining something ive thought of for some time, I knew this but couldnt explain it, do u have any articles or info that could help understand point 4?"4) In my opinion the most important factor that has been overshadowed by most analyses is psychological. Its roots lay in the problematic that people's morality is greatly divergent from ethics. As such the norm in Lebanon is to break the law."
Its okay if you dont, im currently reading 12 rules for life by Jordan Peterson, thanks.
The middle class is the only one affected?
@@rayanjalaluddinallibnani3154 There are no studies dealing with this point to my knowledge. I started writing something in 2019 before the onset of protests, but then things accelerated quickly and I couldn't get past the introduction. Apologies
Great video, can you do a video on South Africa and how we are pretty much now a failed state as well. Our politicians have also been involved in terrible corruption and our countries situation is similar to Lebanon with water and electricity shortages. Jist last year there were terrible riots. Would love to see if you think there is a solution to our countries crisis especially since we are only 28 years out of apartheid and are a young democracy.
You don't need to be Einstein to see South Africa is doomed as a country.
Thank you for yet another great video. I don't think the thinks can get any worse than they are right now. The west should help financially under certain conditions, the main one been Hezballah non-involvement. The conflict with Israel is unlikely, since Lebanon is has a weak military, and Syria has its own mess.
Thanks. Something needs to be done. But it is hard to see how it can be fixed. If the local politicians won’t act, even when living in the midst of it, then it is hard to see what outsiders can do. An utterly tragic situation. Regarding Israel, the worry is that a very heavily armed Hezbollah could take over. Backed by Iran, the worry is that it would start attacking Israel.
@@JamesKerLindsay Lebanon has two major problems. The Syrian refugees and Hezbollah. Lebanon has no means to take care of a Million of Syrian refugees and Hezbollah which took Lebanon as a hostage and are encouraged by Iran.
Lebanon by itself is hopeless. They cannot put pressure on Assad to have them and others back. I think that Assad expects political gain and only after he will agree to get his refugees back.
Can it be that he expects to annex Lebanon and make Syria the Great Syria as it once was?
As for Hezbollah-they have a strong Army and they won't leave Lebanon by themselves. Only an International force will do the job but when did you see it was done lately?
Further more. If Hezbollah will feel itself with its back against the wall, he will turn fighting against Israel at Iran urging.
Bottom line - I see no solution and all we have to do is wait and see.
@@simko8665 the solution is federalism (in an ideal world)
@@ajc5675 Not in an Arab country with Muslims majority.
Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy & Iran is the leading supplier of illegal arms to Lebanon . This has become easier for Iran since they occupy Syria & other Iranian militias also control parts of Iraq.
ISIS is an American proxy & the US is the leading supplier of arms brought from the black market.
yes,gonna cry?proud to be iranian:)
@@ProndaCast you are the ones who should cry. While the iranian regime keeps supplying others with weapons, the iranian people are living in poverty. And yet they have reached nothing. Israel is stronger than ever before and iranians still suffering. Btw this is coming from a shia lebanese :)
To be fair I'm a Lebanese and Iran has been kinder than the US. US never helped us they only helped corrupt people lead the country. On the other hand, Iran is no saint but still better the Americans.
@Jihad_Will_Win 100% right. I would prefer none of them to be involved in Lebanon but between USA and Iran it's Iran. Look at Iraq and Afghanistan.
Beirut used To Be Called Paris of The Middle East, internal & External Factors Have Contributed To This Catastrophic Situation in Lebanon, once The most prosperous Country Now in The Brink. The Country Elites Have Been Looting The Country For Decades, james Thanks For Bringing This sensitive & important issues What A Widespread Corruption Can Do To Nations! Down The Corrupt Elites & Solidarity With The People.
Thank you so much for the comment. It really is a tragic situation. I went to Lebanon in the early 1990s, relatively soon after the end of the war. The country was already rebuilding and there was a lot of hope. It is so awful to see what has happened to it in the past few years. I do hope that it finds a way behind this latest crisis.
@@JamesKerLindsay - If you ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room (i.e. Hezbollah), there is no solution. Hezbollah is better armed than the Lebanese army - besides having the backing of Iran. Iran has no interest in maintaining Lebanese sovereignty, on the contrary, it wants to rule Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East. It doesn't really try to hide its intentions.
@@racheleraanan5133 Thanks. I don’t think we disagree with each other!
Fantastic work. Thank you!
Spent some time at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut a few years ago. Not only the country but the people were some of the kindest people you will ever meet. I left before the explosion but from my colleagues and friends who are still there, have told me that it has really devastated the city and added yet another wound to the list of country.
Lebanon is truly one of the few countries I have hope for and am immensely interested in for its future. There are many factors stacked against it, like the ongoing civil war in its neighboring country and the sponsoring of terrorist organizations by other governments.
I fear that to truly be corrected and put back on a prosperous path, outside government intervention is going to be needed.
Thanks so much. I think many people share your views on Lebanon. It really is an incredible country. I have been interested in it since my teenage years. I went many years ago and it had a huge effect on me. It is amazing and tragic just how much it has been through.
I agree with your comment, i think outside intervention is the only solution. However, how does one intervene a ^sovereign state^? It's a lot harder than it sounds unfortunately
Just came across your channel and have binge watching all the videos. Great unbiased discussions that is very refreshing to hear. Could you discuss in one of your videos the conflicts happening in the South China Sea, about how China is building artifical man made islands?
Thank you so much! I am really glad you like the channel. And thanks for such a great suggestion. I have actually been thinking I should do a video on this. Let me see what I can do.
@@JamesKerLindsay thanks Prof! It's one of those topics that will be hard to be impartial but really looking forward to your take on it!
Thanks. Yes, it’ll certainly be a challenge. I don’t always get the balance quite right. But I do try! :-)
Thanks God I escaped Lebanon in 2017 because it was clear that it was going to a dramatic end, I am now in Europe which generously helping me to work here and send some aids to my family and if I didn’t do this we would be now in a very bad shape 😓
I will be all my life loyal to the country where I live now!
My grandparents immigrated from Lebanon in the early 1900s. This situation tears at my heart
It really is an awful situation. On top of everything else that the country has been through. I would imagine that many in the diaspora are looking in with sadness and disappointment.
Amazing amazing report. Thank you for all the honest information that you reported.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it.
i returned from Lebanon where my Fiancé is from after spending one and a half month there, and it's heartbreaking, beirut is a hollow dark shell of what it used to be, it's sad
Thank you. It really is an appalling situation, isn’t it!?
@@JamesKerLindsay it is! You never know how much your money is worth, people are depressed, and the city is extremely dark due to power cuts.
Electricity is barely present and fuel costs 1/3 of a minimum wage paycheck for a full tank
I mean let's be honest. They need to clean up their sh*. There's so much conflict and hatred and corruption and attacks on neighboring countries. It's not beneficial to them in any way. They need to change their mindsets, and choose a path of peace, honesty, transparency, prosperity, kindness, unity. They can do it. They have that capacity.
Proffesor,I hope you don't forget the fact that hezbollah is the reason why we are unable to get out of this crisis,they have leaked files and voice files that suggest they are trying to establish an Iranian based colony, most politicians are extremely corrupt, and they have their own political factions and political parties.I believe that by sending you some of them,I could make a difference
Excellent video once again, illustrating the decline of “the Switzerland of the Middle East” to economic failure, religious conflicts and malign influence from certain players. Those people really have to go through a lot, that’s for sure. I wonder what a possible way out of this situation may look like.
Lmao Lebanon is as opposite to Switzerland as a country can get
@@fusionreactor7179 It used to be called like that, because it was a neutral country and an important regional financial center back in the 60s. Prof Ker-Lindsay mentions that brief period of economic prosperty in his video.
@@travelmentaryTV *Paris of the Middle East.
@@dontbelieveeverythingyouth8173 Beirut was called Paris of the Middle East, the country was often referred to as Switzerland of the Middle East for the reasons I described above (neutrality and banking system to mention two). You can also find interesting videos from Beirut in the 60s on RUclips.
Like so many countries before it, Lebanon was reasonably prosperous, when it was a secular country. Unfortunately when religious zealots take power, they eventually destroy everything. If a catastrophe is to be avoided it must remove the zealots from power, something no likely to happen. PS: Sadly Turkey may only be a few years behind.
Can you define zealots??
😂😂😂
Your take is as shallow as a butt scratch.
Everything was fine for 100's of years under the ottomans until the secular imperialists such as France & Brittain came in. These are facts.
@@sorrymosquito3897 This is just beyond stupid
My country, and the case is way beyond our own believe. We all feel as if we have changed the place we used to live in 2 years ago
Excellent analysis as always! If there is a state collapse, which would certainly be horrible, I wonder if it would draw Syria back in? If Syria wasn't decimated by a decade of civil war, I'd be almost certain it would see this as an opportunity to reunite with Lebanon. But given the situation today, I'm not at all sure!
Yes. As a Lebanese i can confirm this. Syria doesn't even claim Lebanon as its own independent country. There's even a Syrian socialist party here called SSNP whose members believe that this country belongs to one nation which is "Bilad el Sham" or "Greater Syria", a completely delusional argument seeing as Lebanon and Syria were never a single country previously just territories coincidentally under the rule of multiple empires in the past.
@@ajc5675 I also make RUclips videos (no where near as slick as James', of course) but the SNSP is a party I've wanted to make a video about for a long time. Please let me know if you would be willing to help me understand a few things about them - just a few quick questions.
@@FredoRockwell The SSNP is not technically an Arab nationalist Party. In Syria, it was initially not allowed into the governing National Progressive Front, which is led by the Ba'th ASP and includes only secular left-leaning parties, the fault of the SSNP's fascist roots. However, because it shares the basic Arab goal of erasing the borders drawn by the British and French Empires, and because it has a relatively powerful militia, and because it has a sizable following in Lebanon, the SSNP is sometimes allowed into the NPF in critical times.
This crisis was created in part by international crises outside of its borders and partly by the internal dynamics of a country that really had a hard road from the beginning. Those kinds of ethnic accommodation agreements don't ever seem to quite work in the long term--see Bosnia, South Sudan, maybe even Nigeria.
Add to that the nature of Hezbollah. Like Hamas it is both a political and military force and also the most effective and home-grown aid organization in the area. It has both domestic political and terroristic international aims. Whatever solution there is going to be is going to require some fundamental reworking of the state, and some unique nation-building. I'd almost want to see the UN try to come in as some sort of trustee and govern for a period while redrawing the government up from scratch. I can actually see most other groups in Lebanon get behind this other than Hezbollah.
Lebanon has so much potential. If relieved of some of its refugee burden and allowed to build on its historical and human assets it could again be very successful. This is one of the rare crises that is so bad and so bad for all actors involved you could actually see creative, fundamental rethinking start happening from the ground up. One can only hope.
Despite the already destroyed hope I have living in Lebanon in the future, this made me regret even considering to live in Lebanon post high-school.
Great video as always Prof. Lebanon is indeed a country at the very edge of failure in my experience (there). Perhaps only fresh memories of the 1975-90 war and Syria's bad example have prevented utter disaster. D.A., J.D., NYC (formerly Beirut)
There is usually a lot more than meets the eye and so much happens in the background that is not noticed. Lebanon is simply being torn to shreds by some politicians who have a lot to lose ( ie money in european banks) if they don't do as the west asks, and those who see western interferance as a continous attempt for control and in favour of a more stable and protected Israel. In between both, the average civilian goes sick and hungry. It's a battle of wills, it happens throughout history.
Superb material, as always! Thank you!
Thank you so much. I had long wanted to do a video on Lebanon. It is a country close to my heart, for a number of reasons. It would just have been nicer if it was a more positive story to tell.
Very informative and useful, thank you very much!
👏😐
I had met many Lebanese people when I lived in Saudi.
I hope the people of Lebanon recover from this.
Saudia**
A Christian nation that becomes majority Muslim will never end well no matter what. Of course Lebanon's close proximity to Israel never made the transition any smoother as it became a proxy of Iran through Hezbollah in its never ending warfare against the Jews..
There seems to have been an inevitability to the situation in Lebanon. When you premise governance on religious identity instead of individual human beings, such a state of affairs is to be expected at some point. All the more tragic since the Lebanese are excellent people.
A very interesting and intelligent presentation and analysis.
Thank you so much. I am really glad you found it interesting. It is such an amazing country, but it has such tragic and complex history.
10:18 i.e it is the most popular party (c.f. 2018 elections) in the history of Lebanon. Given its large electorate, and the number of seats it has, it is also the most under represented party.
I think wherever is that religion there is problem, conflict.People has to be blinded not to see correlation with that.
Starting from Maroc, Mauritania, West Sahara, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia , Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Lebanon,Somalia, Yemen , Syria,Irak,Iran, Afganistan, Pakistan, part of Russia, part of China, part of India ,part of Myanmar , part of Philippines. Do You need more evidence?
Exactly.
excellet video but it even goes beyond that!
the fact that lebanon is an importer,
the balck market dolar rate,
and the huge number of lebanese young adults that left the country to work and find stability in other countries!
Thank you so much. You are right. There are all sorts of factors that have also contributed to the situation. I didn't want to get too deep into it all though. Unfortunately, when making videos, a lot of information has to be cut out to keep the story moving along and avoid confusing people who might be entirely new to the situation. Still, I hope I got the main points across.
@@JamesKerLindsay You're totally right! Its good to see how you tackled a diff aspect of lebanon!
Myself I am one of those lebanese young adults that left lebanon after the explosion to seek a calmer lifestyle and you're right explaining whats happeningnin lebanon is so difficult even lebanese can't comprehend!
@@BilalBaadarani Thanks. So sorry to hear that you had to leave the country. But I understand perfectly, I know how tough things are there. (I actually know the country well. I have had many Lebanese friends and my sister lived there for three years.) In any case, I hope you are doing well now, wherever you are.
Kind of a common fate of all Iranian proxy states, see Yemen too. Get Hezbollah out, the country will get back to its feet.
Separating Lebanon from Syria effectively crippled both countries.
Wrong info about “Palestinian refugees” due to the “partition of Palestinian and creation of Israel” - there was a war which included Lebanon, along with other Arab countries, attacking Israel, in which many Arabs emigrated from the area for various reasons. None of which was directly because of the creation of Israel
Ливанцы должны изгнать хезболлу и своих коррумпированных правителей. Когда Израиль предложил гуманитарную помощь, правители гордо отказались, не спросив голодных ливанцев.
Please world help Lebanon and it's people.We do not deserve that!
It has tremendous potential in all sectors .The warlord politicians have stolen the government and the people s capital.This happened since the war ended in 1991.Instead of development they were stealing all the time .Inspite of all of this we were able to survive for 30 years through this.
Lebanon was Christian before it was Muslim Arab. Christianity was the official religion of the Roman then Byzantine Empire before the Arab conquest from the South.
It would be interesting to see if Lebanese assert a pre Arab identity and assert themselves as Phoenicians not Arabs.
that's pathetic though
Most definitely.only muslims define themselves as arabs. Most Christians are not arabs we are Lebanese with extensive heritage and ancestors that was influenced but many cultures, but we can not deny and embrace our roots as Phoenicians
so interesting! And if I understand why British divided their mandate to muslim-arabic Transjordan and jewish Palestine, I do not understand why French divided their mandate to what is now modern Syria and Lebanon.
If I'm not mistaken Lebanon was created for Christian Arabs. So many have emigrated that they're no longer a majority.
It was meant to be a French israel, christian garrison state
@@edgzta And that is exactly why Israel needs to do everything in its power to prevent itself from becoming another failed Muslim state
The last Christians who were honourable enough to fight for their religion and land were called 'Ouwet - Lebanese Forces'. The leader was killed 30+ yrs ago, and it has been in disarray since. Hopefully others are still left in Lebanon willing to fight for the same! My family all belonged to the Gemayel (Bashir Gemayel) party, and if possible I would LOVE to go back to Lebanon and do such; but there are not many like us anymore unfortunately
@@pcgeglobal656 - Bashir Gemayel wanted to make peace with Israel. That is probably why he was killed. It is interesting to imagine what might have been had he lived.
Clash of civilizations.religon of peace overpowered religion of love.
Very informative. Thank you
Objectivity demands the mention of some important factors:
1) The regional context which is generally dismal except in West-allied monarchies which are stable and prosperous
2) The withdrawal of gulf countries investments from Lebanon as a punishment for allowing continued participation of Hezbollah in government
3) That political leaders in Lebanon, having lived through a bloody civil war, are unwilling or unable to allow for a military confrontation between Western and Iranian proxies
Corruption has and will always be in Lebanon, the region and the world
One should be asking why is it many Middle East countries are constantly in a state of war or inner turmoil. What is the underlying common thread that runs through all of them? Why does Israel a small and new country do so well economically and socially even though it is surrounded by mortal enemies bent on wiping it out. In other words what is the thing that makes these countries fall apart and what is the thing that keeps one of them stable and thriving?
Habibi Lebanon already collapsed the brink of disaster already happened. My family can barely make a living, my aunt makes like 20 dollars a month and they can’t even leave because the Government shuts down the embassy. They also ran out of Lebanese currency this week. Hezbolla wants all the Christians dead so they can take over and make it fully Muslim.
Subhan Allah, the situation is very dire ive seen shops on the verge of collapse, but no i doubt Hezbollah wants to kill Christians lol, the issue is Hezbollah has its ideals as a militant group, hence we should not treat them as a political group but a militia, we should keep them for their militant purposes nothing else, the issue is we allowed them to hold political power and our government did nothing to make peace with them as a neutral militant group (p.s its impossible to remove Hezbollah, they are useful as long as they are not a political entity in Lebanon).
No one believes in the "religious utopia (that the whole world or country will be of one religion)" except ISIS and Al-Qaeda, will never happen, hebzollah is actually quite smart, they know these things, issue is because they are too political headed now, money will blind them but they wont go as far as trying to establish a "religious utopia." mind you no country has a pure religious foundation since the Rassanids, Ayyubids in the middle east and managed to maintain it, not even the ottomans had a religious government (it was purely Roman-Turkish), the only way youll have a fully Islamic government is when religious literacy reaches the level it was just after salahuddin ayyubi with the religious infrastructure basically at full power. There's hardly any religious literacy, the religious institutions are extremely weak, they only have power over minute social decisions i.e. marriage etc.
The solution to the religious problem is this: Leave the new government purely to the demands of Lebanese leaders away from political interference or hand it over to a fully literate religious institution (which is practically impossible because there is none).
Sir what Balochistan issue is.Kindly make a detailed video on this movement/conflict.and about its future? I Am looking forward to your reply❤️
Thank you. Great suggestion. This has long been on my list.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanku .So we are waiting for it
Tragic situation. Iran should take more blame since it is employing Hezbullah to fight Israel to the last Lebanese. I fear hezbullah and Iran might take the opportunity to attack Israel. The results will be bad for israel but horrific for Lebanon. It would look like Gaza.
Israel literally caused the creation of Hezoballah when they invaded Lebanon. Stop acting like Israel is this Angel that’s done nothing wrong when it’s basically a giant military base for imperialism in the region much like how South Africa was for Africa. And this is coming from a Lebanese
I work in an international company. When we recently had a Q/A session with our CEO, a question from Beirut was: will we increase our efforts to fight climate change. I was astonished by the stupidity of that question.
Thanks. Very informative.
Thank you. Really glad you found it useful.
I support peace between Abraham sons,Shalom from Israel 🙏🏼
Where does the annual 300 million dollars in hash sales go?
Averting the disaster will only give the corrupt officials more time and money for them to stay in power. Lebanon's main problem is in its constitution that gives certain groups and their families power based on their religion.
Professor, you forgot to mention about the 1.5 million refugees from Syria in Lebanon with a population of 5 million. Is UN or other countries paying Lebanon for its refugees? Turkey is getting paid $4.5 billion for its refugees, how about Lebanon?
Thanks. I didn’t forget. It’s there. This is a really important point.
Nobody talks about the fact that lebanon would have probably never resorted to this if it was established as a fully christian state and didn't have so many muslims entering it
@Jihad_Will_Win
Clear my eyes
@Jihad_Will_Win
I'm not even talking about PLO or the civil war.
The original sin was expanding lebanon into greater lebanon in the french mandate.
Maronites sealed their fate already back then
@Jihad_Will_Win
No. That they shouldn't have expanded lebanon and should have kept it majority christian
@Jihad_Will_Win
The french expanded the original idea of maronite lebanon into what became the mandate. That's why it's called "greater lebanon".
And many maronites stupidly pushed and lobbied for that expansion fron france when the opportunity came after the ottoman empire collapsed.
Very interesting . Please do an analysis about Srilankan Economy if you could. Thanking you.
Can the gas of the coast help them revenue wise if they can gain access?
wrong ... the British had the task of managing the Palestinian mandate. Not "Palestine" and "Jordan" The Palestinian mandate included what is today known as Israel and Jordan
It was called “the British Mandate of Palestine” for a reason. The land is called Palestine. Get over it
Forza Libano!
Whatever aid is doled out, would be swindled
Thanks. You’re probably very right. And that is what is so depressingly sad about this situation!
@@JamesKerLindsay - It also answers the question as to how the international community can help. It can't.
It would be interesting to speculate on some sort of "what if"/alternate history type scenario in which Lebanon manages to avoid the 1975 civil war and all the problems that have afflicted Lebanon ever since. It would be even more interesting if Lebanon manages to keep its Christian majority and becomes to Mideastern Christians what Israel is to the Jews. In short, a Lebanon that remains economically vibrant from 1975 down to the present day and that could at least start to be compared to nearby Cyprus or Israel in terms of prosperity.
Wonderful history lesson.
Thank you very much!
Lebanon is just the canary in the coal mine. The first of many failed states in the ME to come to a complete disaster. The common link between all these failing states in the ME is the fact that they were articifical creations of Mr Sykes and Mr Picot, with no regard to any real nationalistic basis for forming a country. Without a cohesive society (on which most successful states are built) the resultant corruption, violence and economic disaster is almost a certainty. Instead of trying to save Lebanon, the world would do the people there a great favor by just letting nature take its course, with the outcome being an independent Christian state, an independent Sunni state, and an independent Shia state, as it should have been set up as to begin with.
Could we get a list of failed states currently ?
How do you catégorize a failed state?
In memory of my husband who was a history major. Thank you for providing educated commentary free of US political venom.
Thank you so much. I’m so very sorry to hear about your husband.
04:45 I have to note so that Jordan expelled those 10,000s of Palestinans as according to Jordan several terrorist actions had been conducted by Palestinian terrorist groups wich then had been accepted by Lebanon and many of those have now to life a sad life of being citizen of no country as they are stateless and forbidden to work in Lebanon often too
The terror group in Tel Aviv murdered many of those poor Palestinians.
@@ashleyKennedy5 Actually Jordanians killed more in that month then Israel in 50 years of war.
@@yakov95000 Don't forget to add Sabra and Shatila along with all the murderous work in Lebanon pus the work of your allies, Al Qaida and ISIS, in Syria.
@@ashleyKennedy5 where was I talking about Israel? I just mentioned that Jordan expelled many Palestinians due to acusitions... I dont want to hold a debate who is right about the Israel Palestine conflict.
It was a little more than accusations, it was an attempted coup. Hafez Assad provided the PLA with repainted tanks and other weapons.
@Professor James, you spent a lot of time on the hirstry of Lebanon (very interesting) but very little on the recent crisis.
Their government has nto met for months.
The World Bank and the IMF should just pull out until they get their act together (never)
The 2019 economic crisis here in Lebanon caused by the biggest scam generated by banks!
I think that the only way Lebanon could be back on track is some kind of sub-economic annexation from (could have been Syria but they also need help )Israel but that wouldn't be easy .
Very informative.
hoping you will have somehow a book review regarding to IR :D
such as works of Henry Kissinger, John Mearsheimer, Robert Kaplan, Tim Marshall etc! :D
Спасибо за информацию,очень интересный видеоролик.
Lebanese stock market currently worth around 7B, can israel buy the entire country already so i can visit Tyre
Why do western journalists/analysts constantly refer it as "the brink/verge" of disaster? What more criteria points would a nation need to fill before calling it for what it is? Venezuela and Palestine offer electricity to their own citizens more than the Lebanese state, bear in mind.
Too bad I never had professors like you.
They all seemed so lost.... as if they lived in a cave hidden from the world or something.
Thank you so much! I As it happens, a large part of the reason I wanted to set up the channel was because I remember just how little we discussed real world events when I was doing my studies. I always wanted to relate ideas I was learning to what was happening in the news. Anyway, this is my chance to hopefully contribute to that sort of discussion! :-)
This is such a great video! I think we are getting spoiled by the quality of your channel :) While we promote multiculturalism around the world , to my knowledge there is not a single democratic country that has divided people by religion that is poor and stable. The only thing that can hold a country with those divisions is money.
Perfect example of failed multi religious countries is Bosnia and Lebanon. What is going to happen to a country that is rich, but gets into an economic collapse ? History shows civil war.
I know that this is very, and i mean very controversial topic to talk about, but is the solution putting problems under the carpet ? Don't get me wrong, i do not hate any religion, any culture, i just think that when people get used to something that is giving them a peace of their mind (religion) there is very high chance that they will stick to it till the end of their lives.
Well, there is language...
Good, comprehensive video, Professor. One shortcoming, however, is that it underplays Hezbollah's control over the country (in all the places that matter, at least). Hezbollah indeed has already seized control.
Thanks. I tried to convey some of that, noting that they have MPs, seats in government, etc. But perhaps it didn’t get across just how significant it already is. The key question is whether they make that overt, and what this would mean.
This is just one man's opinion.
Totally disagree. The corruption and the corrupt politicians have always been nurtured and supported by US and France.
@@mmh1922 well you shouldn't disagree. It's a fact. The most blatant thing in this country is that Hezbollah is a growing cancer that isolates its people and brainwashes them by calling itself "the islamic resistance" and antagonizing anyone who goes against their ideology. Just like every other party they exploit their followers and divide them based on sectarian lines but the BIGGEST difference is that Hezb is a LITERAL militia that obeys the Iranian regime and does whatever Khomeini tells them to do. The corrupt politicians you are talking about are literally Hezb and their biggest Christian ally FPM whom together own the majority of the ruling cabinet. How can you point fingers or blame anyone else if they're the ones who run the country?