Experts Claim That The Freight Market Is Turning, But What Does The Data Say? Capacity & Volumes
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
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No matter where you look, there will always be at least one article claiming that the trucking industry is on the brink of a turnaround which is something that we should all be very excited about. But, past experience has taught me to be more skeptical, so lets look at Carrier Capacity, Dispatchable Trucks, Consumer Spending, Consumer Confidence, Inventory to Sales ratios, and lets see if there is actually any basis for such RUSHED optimism in the freight market.
Charts: drive.google.c...
SOURCES:
www.freightwav...
data.bls.gov/t...
ycharts.com/in... Retail Sales is at,0.54% from one year ago.
www.usinflatio...
data.bls.gov/c...
www.conference...
fred.stlouisfe...
OTHER LINKS:
Industry Social Network: www.TMSConnection.com
My email: talkabouttrucking@gmail.com
RTS Fuel/Factoring: www.rtsinc.com....
The only change in market is fuel going up crazy
As a truck dispatcher I can say that it's been really difficult these days to get a good load . Love your content and efforts ❤️ love from Pakistan 🇵🇰👏
🤔
Pakistán , who is there, broker or dispacher?
@@jorgelara6165
A lot of brokerage with whome you work on regular basis are Pakistan based but you don't know and a lot dispatch companies operate from Pakistan .
Always a pleasure seeing you. Love you and your videos. ❤.
Ok I guess I’ll be the one to say it. This woman is absolutely gorgeous and such a joy to listen to.
Yea it's turning up side down this week its horrible never seen one like this
What do you mean?
ALIENS WOULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT, HI LARRI US
To me personally, it feels like every single week has been getting worse since around April with the exception of a few. I'm pretty much right at the breaking point right now. I just don't see how it's worth it for anyone to stick around with the market like this.
Agreed with you. I’m almost giving up man..
So as it turns it happens slow. You can't tell the difference between going down or up if average is at 1.65 a mile. It will suck for some time still. I have seen improvement in the lane I run. But if average is 1.65 and you see loads at a buck a mile that means someone is getting 2.50 a mile somewhere. Or 3.50. Average is very misleading. But yes I think most markets still stinking. Maybe even worse smell than last month. Brokers make more money this way.
I agree with you brother , shit started falling apart after April
Why would companies invest in their fleet with shrinking demand and being able to sit on 5.5% T-Bills?
Amazing how the load rates go up to what they are supposed to pay at around 2PM, when the load can't be covered.
Brokers have us where they want, a least that those volumes increase drastically, they have no reason to let go our balls, mega carriers are taking in all those O/O like myself, leaving the spot market for a fixed rate, and steady loads, wich is not a terrible thing to do,while taking shelter from the s..t storm.
Those are my thoughts, thanks for the educational video as usual.
Brokers are the main reason we don't make money they blatantly rob us all they can on each load. The goverment should step up and do something
I think it's smart not to predict much, it's a wild market. My volume is up but rates to the truck are not. Shippers are demanding cheaper rates(I had one yesterday demand $1.20 a loaded mile for a 53' Van @ 25,000 lbs on 800 miles), but fuel is up. Consumer sentiment might be a bit better, but interest rates continue to climb and inflation, though lower, is still doing it's thing. I guess if their idea of a soft landing is not having deflation and massive job losses, then yeah, things are looking up. There's a lot of stuff that will take longer to come together that might actually be very good for us, but the short term outlook still seems pretty brutal, and I would say that for a real improvement, we're going to need to catch a few lucky breaks. As a business owner and consumer, now is not the time to take leveraged risks.
It happens because we allow it. Establish a $ that makes sense. Don't haul for less. Cheaper to park it
$1.20 would work maybe for an electronic truck
Very wise to look at money spent shopping in the context of inflation for a more accurate picture. As of Monday, there are 26K unemployed, drivers due to Yellow folding. I imagine that makes shippers nervous. I imagine a good number of them will retire, or at least collect unemployment, while it is available.
Somebody saying - we hit the bottom, me - watching FED raising rates, planning to raise rates further this year AND next year, saying we gonna hit recession by the end of 2023, potential WW3 with China(if yes - forget about 2024 elections), car dealership lots are full of cars, people don’t have money to pay their bills(wait till they reach credit card limit), YEAH we definitely gonna see trucking industry going up anytime soon!!!
Wow, you are becoming an economist. Keep up the great work. I appreciate your hard work.
Not getting better at all
I think market is same or getting worse . Still more capacity and less loads to cover. Broker still holding their loads to cover till last minutes
I love saying “let’s go” with you 😂😂. Every video 😂
Hhhhaa-ha-haaahh I wanna see that blessed face who feels optimistic about market pivot!!! It’s so funny. The only change is the fuel up again
Im curious to get your thoughts on the collapse of Yellow Freight Corporation and how it may play into the spot market. Also the last hour save at UPS. My thoughts are, if these two "mega" carrier's (granted LTL and package delivery, respectively) could cause a small ripple effect into the economy. Couldn't a truckload "mega" carrier, operating pennies on the dollar, also be on the very edge of collapse? Of the numbers you showed, of the losses in trucking, how many could be cut backs at these "mega" carrier's, who also are trying to stay afloat? Your right about one thing, theres to many variables to be able to "predict" freights future volumes. Informative video, as always and as always, plan for the worse and hope for the best.
These mega companies are setup to cut throat on prices. They can lose money on loads and drive rates down to increase market share. This is trucking 101 from the 80s and 90s... higher energy and food prices stall growth and the situation can get ugly FAST. It's not really good for anyone. But they think they can make it work out because they have destroyed their competitors
What happens in USA,,bit economy crash ...yes yes ...i don't understand why people just don't stop all and see what mister president can do...people is so stupid,,work hard and pay payments,,thas American dream or what? Have a nice day and good luck for all...
This current president will not do anything. I try to stay away from expressing my political views but I have to just say, Biden is a disaster.
Hello, can someone clarify if it's worth getting a CDL nowadays?)
No!
More like HELL NO
I believe as fuel goes up, capacity will come down. This will discourage many carriers to hang in there. Love your data.
All in the Biden plan 🤦🏾♂️Fuel goes up forces the Trucking company to pay less haul less and take a hit there’s no other way to put it he destroyed the country
High fuel is another nail in the coffin. The final nail for some
I think we are long way from recovering in freight business it will get worse before it gets better personally hate that phrase,
Market will slightly get better with elections coming up 2024,
Feds will start to ease up on interest rate after new years,
Market /spot rates from 2021,2022 historically never happened before so it will get better over time but it will never repeat again for such duration,
Respect your optimism and making it clear for everyone where we stand,
I think you have bright future in entertainment business show hosting or similar,
Good luck and God Bless 🇺🇸.
Shippers are losing customers, and with the United States credit rating dropping from a triple A rating for the first time in history, people better prepare for the worst because it hasn’t got here yet. I’m with Landstar, and we’ve had several direct customers (not broker freight) that have had 30-50% declines in available shipments due to their customers order’s experiencing heavy declines. These are manufacturers that have been around since the 40’s and 50’s. Until this administration is gone, and that won’t make it instant, we will not see this market come back or rates go up. Good luck to all.
That's false
@@goodymob9638 I know it to be an absolute fact. But I’d like to hear why you think it’s false. Akzo Nobel, Sherwin Williams, Kraft Maid cabinets, Goodyear, just to name a few have declined DRASTICALLY. All direct and used to be abundant customers. Give me some facts, or is it the administration comment that got you all on the defense?
Everything you said means one thing, there's to many trucks on the road...
I am stock in Georgia for 3 weeks now
Loads paying 2400 to California
I don’t see anything better on this trucking business, fuel going up and brokers arguing that fuel is going down
Brokers are seriously trying argue that fuel is going down? Well, looks like they have hit a NEW low- didn't think that was possible YIKES!
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful I think most brokers actually would be proud of themselves if they set a new low. Probably have a trophy for the lowest of the low like doing the limbo.
How will the Yellow bankruptcy affect the shipping Market?
nice.
Please explain to people who deal with brokers that the brokers put in the computer the rates you take. So if you took that load for 1000$ for example the brokers won't budge on the rate. How to deal with that do not deal with the same broker companies you usually deal with. If the new broker offers 1000$ for the load you are trying to book counter offer should be 1650$ always counter super high do not counter offer 50$ or 1000$ over the offering rate. Negotiating skills are key!!!!
100%! If you agree to a crap rate, that broker will always know that they can lowball you in the future!
How bout this theory? The Fed hiked rates again making it more expensive to borrow, lenders are pulling back on number of loans, Fuel is going up very quickly. It is my theory that this will result in dowward pressure on the economy.
Just ghosted a broker that thought their load was special, got another one for a little bit more money
One major component your very excellent presentation was silent on, the commercial real-estate market is in full recession, Amazon and Walmart wiped off major builds for 2023/2024. Most of flatbed is directly related to the commercial sector. Which also feeds off the real-estate market. So what the FED is doing with interest rates is working...slowly.
this has been the worst month I have seen since the obama resscion and even then freight wasn't paying much but expenses weren't what they are now. Diesel is creeping back up, Mechanics out here sharing 180+ per hour, insurance rates going up this is going to be a ruff winter for everyone.
MHC in Atlanta is $252 door rate
@@TRANSPORTKING1988I’ll try a and fix my own truck before I pay 220 hr 😂
@@truckingwithnose the only way I make it. Saved big bucks. Just did full ac system, tie rod, water pump, hood repair, coolant lines. It never ends. Do the work or have a huge truck PMT
@@TRANSPORTKING1988 I just paid 8,100 in Oregon to have an axle and water pump replaced parts were just under 4.5k the rest was labor and bs charges to up sell. I spent 2 days fighting them to lower the bill until they told me they can glady call the police take possession of the truck and sell it in an auction.
8/2/23 the USA Dollar/ Credit was downgraded. This will cause a cost increase in manufacturing/production in America.
My shares portfolio up 91% (+60% in Jun-July) and counting. In my trucking analysis at the beginning of the year I’ve used the stocks market (main ETFs) as an important indicator for trucking business. According to my theory, bearish trend over (+/-) three months could indicate that the market entered bear market and hence trucking business will go down. Opposite, bullish market trends (+/- three months of consistent growth) (currently main ETFs on rally towards their absolute maximum of 2022) may indicate that market turns bullish, and hence to me that indicates a positive news for trucking, based on what in theory, I expect that trucking market will begin growing. Based on what I conclude that August is a critical months and if stock market will break through its maximum, trucking will begin growing because stock market will enter into a clear bullish market.
Trucking is a different world than stocks
@@gaea5326 every meaningful company has its shares traded on the stock market including those affecting the trucking industry. And their collective growth or de-growth can be used as an indicator of a market conditions such as e.g., sales and consumption an important factors that affect financial gains of those companies. Their financial gains is what stocks market expect them to report every quarter and if expectations aren’t met, shares tanking down or the opposite if expectations are met. Hence, I see reasonably long growing collective stocks as a good sign for trucking industry.
Curious if you are looking at shorting any companies
@@Jdvl7188_nJ Not really
Not until the newbies leave the industry. To 2018 levels .
I parked my truck 🚚
NOW WHAT?
Yellow going bankrupt will make the outcome of what will happen in the future. They fired over 30k employees, bring around 12K trucks and over 30K trailers to a stand still. It will take time to absorb all of these drivers, and that is also including those sitting at home collecting unemployment for 3-6 months. Bottom line, we should see a sharp rise in trucking rates to accommodate the lack of trucks now in the industry. If we do not, then the freight was never there to begin with, and it's time to sell the rig, and move on. Just my humble opinion.
Inventory is code for all that Chinese crap sitting on the shelf at Walmart and HD and Dollar General.
Miranda, didn't you move into another office? I love your videos!
I guess brockers and shippers are paying for these "optimistic" articles to "generate" hope among carriers. So the carriers are supposed to take the pane now in the name of better days ahead.
Actually the majority of carriers are one man trucks by far.
What are we Looking at since YRC has went out of business
That's it. I'm getting a new authority.
We've been in a recession for quite a while now
We aren't in a recession 😂
@goodymob9638 by definition we've been in a recession go look it up
@@goodymob9638 Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)
Thank you 🙏 ❤ for everything
Yall can have all that dry van and reefer.
Excellent info!
Gorgeous!
They are all delusional... Unless you're in a Dreamland economy 🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣🤣🤣😂🤣
Less talking during intro, get to the points. “If you’re new…if you watched my videos” less
Thanks for the feedback. I will keep it as is.
Thank you for the info Miranda!
The sound is actually not so good as in videos before, you might want to re-think your microphone choice )
That mic was for my podcast, I dont use it for RUclips but yes I agree that it's time to look into a new mic for RUclips! Looks like the ones I have are getting OLD :(
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful rode or dji wireless would fit your purpose nicely, my 2c.
For the love of trucking, would you please consider rode go 2 for your mic? Sound is almost as bad as freight volume out of Florida.
I will look into that- have been getting a lot of mic complaints lately.
❤❤❤❤
AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF YELLOW FREIGHT, WILL THIS IMPROVE THE RPM?
Not that I can see
So DC's borrowing $3Tril every year to bounce on the bottom? LOL!
There are way too many similarities between Jimmy Carter's presidency in the 1970s and what is still unfolding with Biden's. Consumer confidence could be getting bolstered by a potential change in leadership.
Right now Government is big; Fossil fuel legislation doesn’t favor the industry with higher fuel taxes and prices; Unions have a higher market share in the labor force and they fill their pockets with Gov grants and contracts from the Biden Administration.
Small businesses make up the other half of the economy. There’s freight volume virtually everywhere when small businesses are thriving.
I honestly tried to play attention to the info, but you are way too distracting.
Ps: I'm done with the llc crap. Swift company driver, here I am
Inflation is closer to 30% than 3%, they're pretending inflation is 3%, but shippers still have to deal with reality, ie 30% (and rising) inflation, pretending is fine if you're in the public sector, private sector, not so much.
It almost seems conspirital. But who knows. Just have faith and do the best you can. You'll either make or fail. 😊
❤❤🥰🥰🥰
It means It's Game Over man! Actually, we got busy for a couple of weeks around the 4th and it's tapering off. It means I have to hold on to my crummy little job for a while longer rather than take the plunge! Increased fuel prices and COL (plus inflation) are hurting everyone and this was all by design by the current administration. I feel as if we are all fish in a tank trying to see who can hold their breath the longest! 🐠🐟🐡
It's just perceived leveling fuel up. 90 days to inflation and massive losses
I can’t believe I am getting this vides and wonderful content for free.
Another brilliant video especially that consumer psychology part. Wish the video was 24 hours long so I could watch you the whole day.
👍
Ask what teamsters are saying?😢
Greetings from Flagstaff. The statistic data is confusing, although your interpretation is very interesting. I keep reading in other sources that economy in general is going to be a sad story until the owners of the government complete the moving of European manufacturing to the US. And that would take 3-5 years, maybe more. And only then the economy will start turning around, but that is going to be a very slow process. Therefor we should be prepared for tougher times.
indicators are always lagging
Good afternoon Ms Miranda blessing 🎉
What happened to the trucker shortage?
There is no trucker shortage
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful I know..I'm being sarcastic
we need another pandemic 😂😂
Or something similar but with less casualties! But yeah, we need a unicorn event. Shall we pray for an alien invasion?
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful i don't know what do you smoke but i want to 😂😂 neked woman's evasion on Instagram and onlyfans it's enough 😂
Shes BB Brilliant Beautiful ❤
Your voice is soothing, no matter the microphone.
Thank you 🙏😊
You always give good information
I am the first to watch this video
Let be honest it is a little bit better.
regarding the economics wrestling match your attempting you can make sense out of nonsense. neo liberal economics is a con. if not explain why a trucker in 1980 made more than a trucker in 2020. i will take my answer off air. thanks and as always love you.
@TruckingMadeSuccessful_ love you too.
Are you able to get information on how many new brokers or old brokers (reinstatements) are entering the market or leaving the market voluntarily/involuntarily? How about how many are non factorable now a days? Thanks for all the information you provide…
Yes I can get that info!
I love your theory!!! This is the other, the main needy greedy of our existing situation truckers, inventories, consumer expending. What is next, What can we hope for would drive up consumer expending, back to school season, more holidays out there, black Friday, do we have to wait until Christmas??
Miranda, you are the real deal, what a throughal analysis. Inflation, you are correct, we are forgetting, I was forgetting, when we look al expending, we have to account for Inflation. Very importan for us truckers, because, even though people we are expending all the chunk of money, it is not the same amounts of truck loads of merchandise being bought, because of what money can buy now days. GRATE POINT!
Who is this supermodel chick. Bring back Amanda. Am not listening to anything she says. That piece of idiocy said. If trucking is the canary in the mine shaft of the economy then don’t expect a turnaround in the industry this year. We have to bring inflation under control. And we are nowhere close to that. We have to stay committed to this for the health of our dollar. What we are wishing for now is short gain for long term pain. We need to go through this pain.
Oh. What I stated is my prediction. We can expect small freight increases during the regular winter season. But not much. The blood letting will continue well into next year. It’s not really bad yet. But it’s coming.
Well I see yellow went under is this going to make a difference in trucking
I dont think it will make much of a difference in the spot market no.
You come a long way from the string ear buds im pride of you and thanks for all thew info
😂haha I remember those earbuds! My little og’s
Thank your informative content on the trucking industry. I'm new to your channel and I wanted to know : Do you provide any data on boxtrucks? I will be operating a CDL required boxtruck and wanted to get your take on that side of the industry. Thank you.
I do not have data for box trucks sadly
She has the “Benjamin Button” disease, where she doesn’t age at all, just gets more and more beautiful every video she does. Even when she wants to choke some of these brokers which I can agree with,, she still looks cute when she’s mad Lol,,
“Probabilities”
I'm a Foreign Indian Trucker and I'm a very successful true Owner Operator in United States. I'm willing to undercut any rate and run the load. That's how i stay profitable and achieve my American dream without complaining. So far, so good. At the end of the day, I proud to know that I don't drive for any American Mega Carriers. American Megas are the champions of hauling cheapest rates with Americans lining up to drive them below their self-worth.
Funny!! Lmao!!
Troll
Scammers
@@LanR7033 that's right Miss Ruski. We haggle hard and we swindle hard. We love unfair deals to our advantage. That's why we thrive in Capitalistic economy.
😂
Man I’ve seen the local Walmart diesel price go from 4.39 up to 4.96 in the last month lmao.
That shit is so depressing 😭
Great video.
👏👏👏👍🙏
I know my comment doesn’t have anything to do with your video today, but we have to remember that the mental struggle for drivers is very real. Depression and anxiety goes without saying. I have to say watching your videos you’re always smiling. That’s just another perk you provide us. without knowing it, you help lift us up. Keep up the great work!
Thank you for this comment, it actually means so much. My business partners are my family members so I know and hear how taxing it is to be stuck in a tin can on wheels. And when no money is being made on top of that, it's completely demotivating.
😘
Thanks!
Thank you for your support!
I have seen this week on DAT load board brokers paying 15%-35% less than 30 day average. Add rising fuel prices. That's the only change i see in a market.
Politicians rigging the numbers on everything from GDP to stock market to inflation to unemployment to freight market. They don't want to tell real numbers because it will cause tremendous panic in public and economy might collapse.
Thank you for taking a REALISTIC assessment of the current state of our industry. Much like yourself I believe all this unsupported talk of growth , is nothing more then speculation . Basically comparable to that old saying, theres only one direction once you've hit rock bottom. That being upwards ofcourse. 😂.
It's a wonderful life 2023
Every time a trucker cries a Mexican gets his CDL.
And i thought aliens were a bad thing! 😂
Am I the only one who would be super excited to see aliens? 🤣