Ask Peter Zeihan: The Future of Politics and Peace in West Africa?

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  • Опубликовано: 15 май 2024
  • We've got another question for our Ask Peter series today: What are the long-term impacts to Western interests of the recent political upheaval in West Africa/the Sahel, especially given the break in security partnerships with the United States and Paris?
    Full Newsletter: mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-...
    Where to find more?
    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/3NyQu4l
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    Listen to the Podcast: spoti.fi/3iJyNEe
    Zeihan on Geopolitics website: zeihan.com/
    Purchase the Global Outlook Webinar Here: bit.ly/3xBvRxd
    Where to find me on Social Media?
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    #westafrica #africa #sahel #nigeria

Комментарии • 389

  • @wealthassistant
    @wealthassistant 23 дня назад +63

    The mic quality of his phone outdoors is better than that of him inside his studio

    • @AlecMHansen
      @AlecMHansen 23 дня назад +1

      If I had to guess this is the audio the other people heard, probably a compression algorithm messing it up. Likely not something Peter could control.

    • @superturkle
      @superturkle 21 день назад +1

      its probably bcuz indoors he is at home in colorado and on starlink; when hes outside traveling hes on local wifi, is my guess. what is the quality of starlink in rural middle america?

    • @Larsonaut
      @Larsonaut 20 дней назад

      The quality of the mic is much better than the quality of his analysis.. as always

    • @SF-zc3mm
      @SF-zc3mm 20 дней назад

      ​@@AlecMHansenlol those thin headset mic are notorious for bad quality

  • @charleswomack2166
    @charleswomack2166 23 дня назад +36

    The main issue as I see it in ALL of Africa, but particularly in the sub saharan countries is rampant corruption. This includes Nigeria.

    • @sui9328
      @sui9328 16 дней назад

      Yes corruption which is fueld by the west and accepted by the african « leaders ».

    • @t.i.o.l.u
      @t.i.o.l.u 12 дней назад +2

      Nah, it's not, it's the politics, Africa is basically a massive game of thrones, different factions weighing for power, this, this can easily lead to corruption, but the main issue is for a Reformation of the political system, well it's easier said than done, some don't want to give up their privilege

    • @jameskamotho7513
      @jameskamotho7513 12 дней назад +2

      ​@@t.i.o.l.uExactly. Corruption as a challenge to the nation state is overblown...

    • @t.i.o.l.u
      @t.i.o.l.u 12 дней назад +1

      @@jameskamotho7513 That's always been my thought as a nigerian, unlike most other nation states, Nigeria as no subject of unity, Nigeria is just the land, but the people so different and similar, that's why I want to join politics and create a central figure that all Nigerians lower class can unite under in the face of Nepocracy

    • @jameskamotho7513
      @jameskamotho7513 12 дней назад +1

      @@t.i.o.l.u I'm Kenyan and our politics are similar. Don't go in with lofty ideas else you will be disappointed. Nationhood in Sub-Saharan Africa will be achieved organically (or it might fail) over hundreds of years depending on the rate of intermarriage especially among the big three in the case of Naija(I hope it's happening since you guys appear to hate one another so much). The best scenario was pre independence when populations were small. Small countries like Botswana at least have a chance through govt supported comingling. Just go in and solve one issue like water or power and forget about a total societal overhaul.

  • @howtoappearincompletely9739
    @howtoappearincompletely9739 23 дня назад +30

    Michael has a wonderfully calm and soothing speaking voice, as well as a fascinating backdrop!

    • @cathylynn57
      @cathylynn57 23 дня назад

      I was thinking exactly the same as you! He’s someone you could have a decent cocktail with along with a great conversation.

    • @Elsalvadorh
      @Elsalvadorh 22 дня назад

      What is th name of show or name of guy asking questions?

    • @johnnywest8076
      @johnnywest8076 22 дня назад

      He gets extra credit for the empty liquor bottles.

    • @RD-jc2eu
      @RD-jc2eu 21 день назад

      @@Elsalvadorh Didn't quite catch his name, but he works for Peter in Peter's company -- Zeihan Geopolitics.

  • @elbeemastro
    @elbeemastro 23 дня назад +78

    Nigeria's military capacity is just not there yet. The same weak institutions and rampant statelessness also plague the country. Plus, more pressing internal conflicts will dissuade the military from engaging in these foreign operations.

    • @cavebabybezerkers
      @cavebabybezerkers 23 дня назад

      Nigeria is gone be regulated by black folks

    • @ianshaver8954
      @ianshaver8954 23 дня назад +20

      Military capacity compared to what is the question. We’re grading on a curve here.

    • @Joe-ij6of
      @Joe-ij6of 23 дня назад +13

      But we’re not entirely grading on a curve here. Yes, Nigeria is bigger than Niger and the rest of the sahel combined on a relative basis. But how many troops can nigeria really deploy relative the population and relative to the sq miles? There’s a lot of people in the sahel spread out over a vast area, and Nigeria doesn’t exactly rival the US in airlift capacity. The potential for a widely dispersed enemy embedded throughout widely dispersed civilians risks getting bogged down. There’s no substitute for having cooperation with a local gov’t.
      If Nigeria decides to barrel in anyway and rely entirely on ground transit you’re more vulnerable, you can’t fully use quick reaction forces… even worse, you might have troops harassing civilians along dirt roads reducing cooperation or driving recruitment for terrorist mvmts. Nigeria’s campaign against boko haram isn’t exactly covered in honor, and that’s their own population.

    • @user-gf3lw5pi4t
      @user-gf3lw5pi4t 23 дня назад +2

      Like Afghanistan

    • @integralmark
      @integralmark 22 дня назад +2

      I would suggest "capacity" is not the same as "will". Whether or not Zeihan is consciously aware of the implication of his analysis, he's implying that if Nigeria figures out how to develop more aligned behavior internally it could be the first African superpower, but that means solving political unification problems and, to use your term, internal conflicts (including impotent or worse institutions) that, while clearly local and specific to Nigeria, are seemingly of similar cultural intractability to what many western nations are facing. I'm not the first nor the last to make this observation, but permanently disempowering Boko Haram would obviously be the first test if Nigeria would want to be the first African superpower.

  • @SebastianSipos
    @SebastianSipos 23 дня назад +30

    might as well use your phone when recording at the studio. the audio is way better.

    • @PabstuckyGen
      @PabstuckyGen 23 дня назад +5

      Somehow Zeihan has the worst mic in all of RUclips lol

  • @uriahthehittite1672
    @uriahthehittite1672 22 дня назад +7

    How is Nigeria going to become regional superpower and influence its neighbors when it cannot even control the rebels in the north of their country, Boko Haram, and adequately safeguard their own oil infrastructure?

  • @ernesthale2471
    @ernesthale2471 23 дня назад +2

    Thanks!

  • @hughjass1044
    @hughjass1044 23 дня назад +33

    Wait, hold on a second. I'd like this whole Nigeria business to be fleshed out a little more please. Are we all missing something here? Nigeria can't even control all of its own territory. How's it supposed to impose order on the whole region? And further from that, how's it supposed to maintain that order once it does so?

    • @hakichiki
      @hakichiki 23 дня назад +6

      There is this smaaall issue of Western Powers now desperately needing a regional security partner, and now without the distraction of funding the #SahelGunCliub, there is more funding and assets available to devote as military aid to a more significant and politically-resilient (though equally fractious) West African power?
      There has also been a constant modernization process in the Nigerian armed Forces since 2015. Political will and aptitude in the leadership cadre is the real problem, not the military capacity and capability of the Nigerian Military.
      #JustSaying.

    • @whatevername8551
      @whatevername8551 23 дня назад +2

      To be fair, he used "if" an awful lot. Nigeria has always had potential, but has never realized it.

    • @TheDarkAngel7777
      @TheDarkAngel7777 23 дня назад +1

      Nigeria has the fundamentals to be the regional power there. A large and young population, a sizable economy, and a modernizing industrial base. They could become the region’s superpower if they found the political will and solved their internal problems. Peter mostly looks at these basic factors: geography and demography.

    • @hughjass1044
      @hughjass1044 23 дня назад

      @@TheDarkAngel7777 Yes, I know all that but the key word there is "if." They have not done so yet nor, as a very racially and culturally mixed society, do I see that they have either the will or the means to do so anytime soon. This is what I'm getting at.
      They may be the strongest country in the region and have the fewest problems and the most potential relative to their neighbors but they are still plagued with problems and not in any position to project power throughout the region.... Unless, like I said, I'm really missing something, because from where I'm looking, they can't even get their own affairs in order.
      And don't misunderstand me; I'm not saying any of this to disparage the Nigerians. One of the ladies in my shop is Nigerian and it is she who is the source of much of the information that is the basis of my opinions.
      I really hope that Peter is right and that I am missing something and that they can and might soon impose order. I'm just saying that they don't seem, to me at least, to be in any position to.

    • @delaruetravel
      @delaruetravel 19 дней назад

      It is called desperation . Europe is over .. Their master in America is falling

  • @vaticinus
    @vaticinus 23 дня назад +82

    Nigeria is 1/5th of the Sub-Saharan African Population and 1/4 of its GDP, already the whole continent is feeling its influence not just from its government but also from its private sector. And the influence is only set to grow. Goldman Sachs forecasts Nigeria will be the 4th largest economy in the world by 2080.

    • @manoloorz
      @manoloorz 23 дня назад +43

      Goldman Sachs forecast looks at the current trend and assumes it will go uninterrupted forever, but continuous and limitless growth is not sustainable and in most cases not even fissible, at some point it has to cool off, taper or even reverse.

    • @syweiner434
      @syweiner434 23 дня назад +37

      Hubris to forecast 2080.
      May as well forecast 2999.

    • @guiwhiz
      @guiwhiz 23 дня назад +26

      Forecasting economic conditions in 2080 is a fool's errand. After all would any forecast in 1943 have anticipated the digital revolution? Japan's rise and fall by 2000 economically? No. Trying to peer into a crystal ball more than a decade ahead is just guessing and honestly can be counter-productive because it can set your mind into a course that may push you to fail to adjust plans to the reality of the time.

    • @emceeboogieboots1608
      @emceeboogieboots1608 23 дня назад +5

      ​@@guiwhizFair call, but there is little likely hood of any other nations taking a more prominent role

    • @hamzamahmood9565
      @hamzamahmood9565 23 дня назад +4

      I'm tired of listening to forecasts about a country becoming "the largest," "the 2nd largest," and "the 3rd largest" in anything. Theyve all been wrong

  • @dennisclapp7527
    @dennisclapp7527 23 дня назад +2

    Another great analysis. Thanks Peter.

  • @radiowave12
    @radiowave12 23 дня назад +27

    Uhhhh.... Go team Nigeria... I guess!

    • @enochcushite496
      @enochcushite496 23 дня назад

      Total nonsense!
      Nigeria will never did that! The youth would overthrow the government long before that!
      You idiots have no understanding of what he’s talking about!

    • @samurisnark6940
      @samurisnark6940 23 дня назад

      Yeah, how is Nigeria dealing with Boko Haram and oil theft by militants inside its own borders?

    • @aryaman05
      @aryaman05 23 дня назад

      For that to happen, it needs to be a lot Less corrupt than UA.
      What happens to all those internet princes with gazillions locked away, are they eagerly waiting for Western superpowers help them ship their stash out ?😊

    • @negroraven9458
      @negroraven9458 22 дня назад

      They don’t have what it takes. They’re too focused on trying to replace Black Americans. Rather than building up their homeland.

  • @Dtansing1
    @Dtansing1 23 дня назад +5

    Your always on point mate. Hello from Australia

  • @raddad7269
    @raddad7269 23 дня назад +1

    Please upgrade the mic that Peter was using. I could not finish the video because of how painful the poor quality of the audio was.

  • @jasonsmith530
    @jasonsmith530 23 дня назад +6

    West side!

  • @KipKil1igan
    @KipKil1igan 23 дня назад +23

    Pete, please invest in an actual microphone that you didnt take from a telemarketer

    • @caseyh1934
      @caseyh1934 23 дня назад

      Did you catch the name/organization of the guy conducting the interview?

    • @howtoappearincompletely9739
      @howtoappearincompletely9739 23 дня назад

      @@caseyh1934 Zeihan on Geopolitics, i.e. this RUclips channel.

    • @RD-jc2eu
      @RD-jc2eu 21 день назад

      @@caseyh1934 He works for Peter in Peter's company -- Zeihan Geopolitics.

  • @SeeLasSee
    @SeeLasSee 23 дня назад +3

    I have the impression that Russia only does things in the Sahel where it pays. So it’s limited. Mostly guarding leaders in exchange for gold or other mineral extraction privileges.

  • @ajgraves8016
    @ajgraves8016 23 дня назад +16

    I have been screaming for Nigeria to just take a couple of years to grow their military to about 1.5 to 2% of their population wich would be about 3 million troops and just go and secure the whole damn region. Make the Sahel states basically vassals and rule from Abuja.

    • @Ea-pb2tu
      @Ea-pb2tu 23 дня назад +7

      Imperialism bad maybe?

    • @intractablemaskvpmGy
      @intractablemaskvpmGy 23 дня назад

      @@Ea-pb2tu Depends on who's doing it? Marxists? Democratic capitalists?

    • @CaesarBlackDown
      @CaesarBlackDown 23 дня назад +1

      old school Brit-style - I love it!

    • @howtoappearincompletely9739
      @howtoappearincompletely9739 23 дня назад +1

      @@Ea-pb2tu But better than multitudinous warlordships maybe?

    • @Ea-pb2tu
      @Ea-pb2tu 23 дня назад +2

      @@howtoappearincompletely9739 sure but wanting to subjugate other people is not desirable. You should atleast try to create stable and prosperous but most importantly ideologically aligned countries. Like the U.S. did with Germany and Japan after ww2.

  • @Naomi_dreamz
    @Naomi_dreamz 23 дня назад +3

    Get it Nigeria 🩷

  • @headoverheels88
    @headoverheels88 23 дня назад +12

    It'd legimately be excited to watch a Nigeria come into its own. With that said, it's completely understandable that they would be hesitant to become Africa's top cop to focus on internal issues.

    • @ikp4success
      @ikp4success 23 дня назад

      Yes, unlike South Africa, Nigeria foreign policy is that of Non Alignment, neutrality. They focus more on internal affairs, they(Nigeria) usually just vote alongside AU block in the UN. For example if majority AU block vote 'yes' for an issue in the UN, Nigeria willl mostly pick 'Yes'. Nigeria do everything possible to stay out of the limelight unlike S.Africa.

    • @f-86zoomer37
      @f-86zoomer37 19 дней назад

      @@ikp4success South Africa is quite literally a failed state and it's shrinking, and problems are increasing by the year. Nigeria is growing rapidly and the problems it's facing are the good types.

  • @TheBombayMasterTony
    @TheBombayMasterTony 23 дня назад

    Alright.

  • @Sharon-hr2
    @Sharon-hr2 23 дня назад +45

    what capacity? Nigeria's struggling with both Boko Haram & Muslim-Christian fighting within their own borders.

    • @integralmark
      @integralmark 22 дня назад +3

      Capacity is numbers, will to act is something different.

    • @1993Redemption
      @1993Redemption 22 дня назад +2

      Capacity in this case equals military and industrial capability, it's really simple

  • @rchergarrett
    @rchergarrett 23 дня назад +15

    DUDE ever since that guy blessed the rains down there things really have improved! 🤩

  • @superturkle
    @superturkle 21 день назад

    id like to hear the whole thing, but clicking on the "link to podcast" option leads to a blank screen; anyone know how to fix?

  • @mayoite160
    @mayoite160 23 дня назад +77

    what capacity? Nigeria's struggling with both Boko Haram & Muslim-Christian fighting within their own borders

    • @cavebabybezerkers
      @cavebabybezerkers 23 дня назад +1

      Nigeria is struggling with American CIA proxy puppets

    • @titanblooded6222
      @titanblooded6222 23 дня назад

      Soon the Alphabet ppl won't be able to fund those terrorists organizations. They use to destabilize Africa

    • @luvirini
      @luvirini 23 дня назад +11

      The reason for those problems is the same as their strength compared to nearby nations: The high population. Any involment in the way smaller population countries does not have the same problems of too many people making trouble, as there just are not so many people there.

    • @dmitrybashmakov900
      @dmitrybashmakov900 23 дня назад +10

      Come on, Peter's channel is for entertainment. Myself from Russia, I've been watching his war updates for more than a year. Last time I checked, I should have been very dead six months before.

    • @owodunniroqeeb6618
      @owodunniroqeeb6618 23 дня назад +11

      He meant diplomatic/economic capacity not necessarily a military one

  • @jarnMod
    @jarnMod 23 дня назад +28

    I've always root for African to deal with African problem and take control of their own destiny. Nigeria is a good country relatively speaking. I wish they'd do well. For me it's Nigeria, Ethiopia or Somalia, and South Africa who can be power players there, all off them have difficult decisions they have to make and take seriously to become one. I sure hope they will. It will be bloody, with all the tribal affiliation over there, but if they pay the price then there is a way to the top.
    Plus, one super power there will help with fighting the desert.

    • @donttryitjohn364
      @donttryitjohn364 23 дня назад +8

      Somalia and South Africa? Seriously?

    • @Aria432
      @Aria432 23 дня назад

      It's an overall IQ problem

    • @johnelway9879
      @johnelway9879 23 дня назад +1

      @@donttryitjohn364Somalia is in a great economic situation pending the security question is answered. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out to be a regional power in 20-40 years.
      Demographics ✅
      Untapped natural resources ✅
      Strong economic progress ✅
      Bonus: Gateway to the Indian Ocean and Red Sea.

    • @whatevername8551
      @whatevername8551 23 дня назад

      If the process is bloody it won't bring peace or stability.

    • @daduzadude1547
      @daduzadude1547 23 дня назад

      You hit the nail on the head:
      Tribalism.
      Besides Botswana, there is no African country that does not have corruption, and is a stable democracy.
      South Africa USED to be a nuclear power with the strongest military - until the ANC cronies destroyed it so badly that the Swaziland police could, and did beat them.

  • @damustafa2416
    @damustafa2416 22 дня назад +1

    Need to properly horizontally centre the interviewer in the frame.. This isn't zoom

  • @tomol012
    @tomol012 22 дня назад +1

    Get a proper mic. Peter sounds better even in the field

  • @Lords1997
    @Lords1997 23 дня назад

    Peter what’s your analysis of Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories!??

  • @Abyss-Will
    @Abyss-Will 23 дня назад +2

    Dude I had that same old map on the left framed some years ago, I left it to a friend when I moved out of the city, I hope he still has it.

  • @bradsillasen1972
    @bradsillasen1972 23 дня назад

    Off topic request to see a piece on Hungary, including it's developing relationship with China.

  • @mendelscot
    @mendelscot 16 дней назад

    Nice gin collection! What are your favourites?

  • @user-xc9le1pm5l
    @user-xc9le1pm5l 23 дня назад +7

    you should start a podcast peter :)

  • @user-kr8qv5ec7g
    @user-kr8qv5ec7g 23 дня назад +12

    Yeah Nigeria super power oki doki, maybe travel there or at very least through there and spend half a day there and then make statements like that 💩

    • @theforsakeen-9014
      @theforsakeen-9014 23 дня назад +1

      you ever been?

    • @ajgraves8016
      @ajgraves8016 23 дня назад +2

      ​@@theforsakeen-9014of course they haven't

    • @danielmcguire7344
      @danielmcguire7344 23 дня назад

      Its the new India will be a super power by 2020. Actions talk bullshit walks.

  • @brianjonker510
    @brianjonker510 23 дня назад +5

    Come on Peter!! There is a big difference between the coastal portions and the Sahel of West Africa. Address that and the exploitive West African franc

    • @adurpandya2742
      @adurpandya2742 23 дня назад

      I don’t think he even understood the west african franc until a few months ago. And now someone is telling him not to talk about it. France and Britain are the only two countries that really understand colonial economics and they’ve been hiding a lot of information from everyone.

  • @bobbastian760
    @bobbastian760 23 дня назад +5

    Nigeria has numbers, does it have competence though?

    • @hakichiki
      @hakichiki 23 дня назад

      They are effective and reliable Peacekeeping troops according to the UN.

    • @roguegryphonica3147
      @roguegryphonica3147 23 дня назад +1

      They will... Honestly they probably understand what is at stake after so many years of being passed over and manipulated by other governments.

    • @marcariotto1709
      @marcariotto1709 23 дня назад

      They, like many other Aftican nations are quickly coming to realize and flex their power and tell exploiting countries like China, Europe, etc that they can't simply take their raw materials, and in many cases simply telling foreigners to GTFO! With populations cratering in China and the west, while Africa's is rising along with its industrial capacity and other factors it's going to be interesting to see how much outside interference plays a part and if they can actually pull off their advancement. I guess we'll know in a decade or 2wo.

    • @negroraven9458
      @negroraven9458 22 дня назад

      NO! They can’t even get toilets 🚽 right!

  • @DraftedByTheMan
    @DraftedByTheMan 23 дня назад +6

    Excellent video…can’t wait to watch it 😅

    • @hjs9td
      @hjs9td 23 дня назад +3

      Compliments before analysis? Into Objectivity much?

    • @enochcushite496
      @enochcushite496 23 дня назад

      No it’s not! It’s total nonsense
      Nigeria can never invade Niger 🇳🇪! The government will get overthrown!
      You people are idiots!
      All French and American troops will be forced out of West Africa !
      Wait for it! Senegal 🇸🇳 is next then Benin and Chad !

    • @pohkeee
      @pohkeee 23 дня назад +1

      Love your humor! 🥸

    • @DraftedByTheMan
      @DraftedByTheMan 23 дня назад

      @@hjs9td I was in a rush to be 1st 🥇 to comment 😆

  • @eg4933
    @eg4933 22 дня назад +2

    Peter Zeihan is man of the times. Seriously he's got the most clarity.

    • @NeidlichesSchwert
      @NeidlichesSchwert 22 дня назад +1

      Agreed. Now, if only Michael could teach him how to say "taiga," "Xi," et al.

  • @michaeldowson6988
    @michaeldowson6988 23 дня назад +9

    France wanted Canada to become involved in settling things in Mali, but after a limited commitment, we got the hell out of there.

    • @monkeebunz8580
      @monkeebunz8580 23 дня назад +2

      France did that job, and "mostly" finished it. France was asking nato/un and of course Canada to fight terrorism in Mali (all over Africa). France did in fact commit to a blitz war in Mali aginst isis strong points and cleared then out from west Africa to my knowledge.
      But we can never be to sure if they did the job 110% or if they're sill cells in Africa (there is)

    • @eddietat95
      @eddietat95 22 дня назад

      It wasn't really because we were worried about the war situation more than it was the lack of funded capability we could bring to the table. In five years, we only deployed some medevac units and some base guards that we called "peacekeepers". CAF doesn't have the funds to put more people on the ground.

  • @JamesTenniswood
    @JamesTenniswood 23 дня назад +3

    You need a better mic

  • @jean-martinvonsiebenthal2836
    @jean-martinvonsiebenthal2836 22 дня назад

    One thing to consider, if that until very recently Nigeria's politics and military were monopolized by the Northerners, which have much more in common with the populations of the Center-West-African Coup Belt, having been all at some points part of the some of the many frontier muslim empires raiding/dominating the Southerners.
    If Nigeria were to ever intervene, could come the risk of the Northerners coopting their neighbors to reshuffle the politics of Negeria to their advantage.

  • @MrBallenPodcast904
    @MrBallenPodcast904 23 дня назад

    The Future of Politics and Peace in West Africa

  • @jeanlamb5026
    @jeanlamb5026 22 дня назад +1

    Nigeria also has a huge birth rate, which means lots of young men with relatively little to do. The army starts looking good then.

  • @caseyh1934
    @caseyh1934 23 дня назад +1

    Did anyone catch the interviewers name/organization?

    • @crosslink1493
      @crosslink1493 23 дня назад

      Its at the start. I didn't get his name, but he works for Peter Zeihan's organization. Looks like he got selected to be the "M.C." today while on a "work from home" assignment(?).

    • @caseyh1934
      @caseyh1934 23 дня назад

      ​@@crosslink1493ohhhh ok. Just couldn't make out his last name or that of organization. Didn't realize it was Peters group.
      Thank you!

    • @zarkhezdimaag2704
      @zarkhezdimaag2704 23 дня назад

      Nope

  • @erikgraeff4229
    @erikgraeff4229 23 дня назад +1

    This is a question for Peter about Russia's war casualties in Ukraine; The reports are that Russians have taken over 300,000 casualties in the war. You say in past wars Russia hasn't even flinched until they lose a million or so troops. However, I just read that in the Russian Afghan war the Russians lost only 15,000 troops before they gave up and went home discouraged al a Vietnam. These two histories don't seem consistent so do you have any clarification about it? Do you believe the casualty figures in the Ukraine war? How possible is it that they are way, way off?

  • @petergledhill7380
    @petergledhill7380 23 дня назад +2

    Hi Peter. Recently started listening to Bill Browder a really straight shooter - I’m hoping you’re following him too 👍

  • @bobfry5267
    @bobfry5267 23 дня назад +6

    Critical point missed here: France gets almost all of it's nuclear power resources from this area. It's a strategic matter that it keeps getting them, France is nuclear powered.

    • @haleffect9011
      @haleffect9011 23 дня назад +1

      Nope, it gets most of its uranium from Canada, austrailia, Usbekistan and Kazakstan, it gets about 20% from the area and it can switch to elsewhere quite easily if it wants to

    • @philipwong9557
      @philipwong9557 23 дня назад +6

      You're conflating low cost with low availability. Uranium ore is not exactly in short supply relative to demand globally. It may be more expensive to get it from Australia etc and there may be some time needed to bring up more capacity, but it is not of critical medium term importance. The use of nuclear fuel isn't high so the price of it is a relatively small part of the cost of operating nuclear reactors. In short, it isn't a big deal.

    • @williamwaldenar5174
      @williamwaldenar5174 23 дня назад +3

      No , not quite. France gets 35% of its uranium imports from Niger, 29% from Kazakhstan, 26% from Ouzbékistan and about 10% from Australia.

  • @ChristianWolf88
    @ChristianWolf88 23 дня назад

    Pete the audio is REALLY bad on this video

  • @researcher7109
    @researcher7109 23 дня назад

    Compared to the rest of the region, Nigeria is Him.

  • @doujinflip
    @doujinflip 23 дня назад

    Because it wasn’t enough to be the entire world’s second most favorite team during the 2018 World Cup 🇳🇬⚽️

  • @Lynnsle
    @Lynnsle 22 дня назад

    Nice to meet you Michael...interesting topic. I stay away from the news and feel I can Trust Peter and his team to inform me on what's really going on. Thanks for all you do!

  • @jimthain8777
    @jimthain8777 23 дня назад +3

    I can agree with him on one point, that Nigeria WILL become an African "superpower".
    I think that people should probably be respectful to Ethiopia as well.
    As far as the Caucasus area is concerned, while there may be hope in Armenia who feel Russia abandoned them in favor of their neighbor, Azerbaijan.
    There are HUGE problems in Georgia (the country), where there seems to be a pro Russian government working against the wishes of their own people.
    Democracy in that country is SERIOUSLY threatened.
    Meanwhile Azerbaijan is firmly in the Russian camp, as the Russians turned a blind eye when they stormed and took over Nagorno-karabakh.

    • @AS-np3yq
      @AS-np3yq 23 дня назад

      Russia took over control in Georgia 2008. It us a russian colony just like Belarus.

    • @JayInvests
      @JayInvests 23 дня назад +6

      Ethiopia needs a sea border. I am not saying a PORT, they need to free themselves from being landlocked at all costs.

    • @cavebabybezerkers
      @cavebabybezerkers 23 дня назад +1

      ​@@JayInvestsFacts. Peace to the God's in Ethiopia 🇪🇹

    • @leeloo21231234
      @leeloo21231234 23 дня назад +5

      Azerbaijan is not in the Russian camp, has not been ever, not since the 90's. They are in the Turkish camp. They lost the previous 2 wars because of the russian support of Armenia, wich was impossible this time due to drain in Ukraine. Russia was just powerless.

    • @danz1182
      @danz1182 23 дня назад

      ​@@JayInvestswhat use is a sea border without a port?

  • @thunderwing2124
    @thunderwing2124 23 дня назад

    So in Africa, the first superpower may come from either West Africa, South Africa (assuming the ANC gets their stuff in order), or East Africa?

    • @ibstudiosHD
      @ibstudiosHD 23 дня назад

      The first African Superpower is probably going to be Nigeria but there has to be a clean sweep before this can happen. They have to get rid of all the politicians in power now. No one left behind. These set of politicians are corrupt scumbags.

  • @CaesarBlackDown
    @CaesarBlackDown 23 дня назад +1

    Peter needs a better wardrobe for on camera formal sessions. Men often make this mistake of pairing soft collar button downs with structured suit jackets. The collar can't stand up to the weight of the jacket and the result is a weak looking neck line and sloppier appearance despite the attempt to look professional. Also, his light grey background doesn't frame the slightly darker grey of the suit color - the result is a monochromatic mess as one blends into the other. He should have a standard dark blue blazer and crisp white starched collar or a thicker button down collar. This will help frame his face and shoulders.

  • @jeffreykalb9752
    @jeffreykalb9752 23 дня назад +2

    We just abandoned a $100 million military base to the Russians there.

  • @hungo7720
    @hungo7720 23 дня назад +1

    The prerequisite thing is that the west africans have to ramp up agricultural outputs to subdue famine. However, this can hardly happen in the most economically deprived region of the world.

    • @alexeidragunov4534
      @alexeidragunov4534 23 дня назад

      Economically deprived you say🥲 we in Romania made economy out of nothing many times

    • @cavebabybezerkers
      @cavebabybezerkers 23 дня назад

      Bruh just stay TF out !!!! That's it. 😊

    • @roguegryphonica3147
      @roguegryphonica3147 23 дня назад

      They have oil, they can make fertilizer if they try... It isn't that hard for a people who understands agriculture and isn't willing to let their people starve for world climate credits.

  • @NikkoMcCarthy
    @NikkoMcCarthy 21 день назад

    whats that white thing on the right side of the statue?

  • @mm650
    @mm650 23 дня назад +2

    He doesn't talk about China in Africa, and he should. China has made non-trivial investments there, and it actually has some of what the region needs in that it knows how to take super low-skill labor and raw materials and build an industrial system from it... China did it first in China, and it could do it again in Africa, bringing Africa into the Chinese block.

  • @thomasbyg4795
    @thomasbyg4795 19 дней назад

    How can I comment without knowing about the reasoning of his graphics behind him... lol...???

  • @curtisep5885
    @curtisep5885 23 дня назад +1

    Ever heard "Africa for Africans"

    • @negroraven9458
      @negroraven9458 22 дня назад

      They don’t really mean that. Africans worship white people.🤷🏾‍♂️

  • @leoyoung7547
    @leoyoung7547 23 дня назад

    Rather, the first African superpower in recent history.

  • @kennyking9667
    @kennyking9667 23 дня назад +2

    Talk about Biafra

  • @matthewprespentt4102
    @matthewprespentt4102 23 дня назад +1

    👀🇺🇸✌️

  • @wizzzer1337
    @wizzzer1337 23 дня назад

    How do Russians secure supply routes from Sahel?

  • @ToriMarr-dp5ez
    @ToriMarr-dp5ez 22 дня назад +1

    Jesus Peter!
    Get a sound guy!

  • @apl1568
    @apl1568 22 дня назад

    Peter Zeihan sounds more and more like a White House spokesman with each new peace he puts out.

    • @kkostadinof
      @kkostadinof 22 дня назад

      He never stopped being a CIA mouthpiece.

  • @fernangdecastillap5309
    @fernangdecastillap5309 23 дня назад

    Empty liquor bottles as backdrop... Are you serious?

  • @bobbastian760
    @bobbastian760 23 дня назад +1

    That's a lot of empty bottles. It's been a long year 😂

  • @justinpearman9
    @justinpearman9 23 дня назад

    Given anything going from the Sahel to the Indians or Pacific is faster transported across via rail or around the cape, if to India 'great' but to get this Japanese machine back to Dire Straits 'Money For Nothing' or Pink Floyd's 'Not Now John' levels of competitive capacities again, it'll have to go through Malacca..
    ..and given recent public actions increasingly vocalizing, curious to see one of these on Malaysia 🇲🇾 & surrounding .. toss Vietnam 🇻🇳 in there maybe even? 🤷🏻‍♂️

  • @duhaneyparkclassics7484
    @duhaneyparkclassics7484 23 дня назад +4

    Dude did you splice yourself into a Zeihan clip... now I've seen everything.

    • @danm2144
      @danm2144 23 дня назад +1

      this is on Peter's channel

  • @maynamar2517
    @maynamar2517 23 дня назад

    How do Russians secure supply routes from Sahel? ALGERIA help them a lot

  • @stevendaniel8126
    @stevendaniel8126 23 дня назад

    Frankly, with all I have going on in my little life, I couldn't care less about Africa in any form.
    Sorry to sound cruel, but it is what it is. Good luck !! 😊😊😊

    • @ajgraves8016
      @ajgraves8016 23 дня назад +1

      So why watch the video?? Lol

    • @whatevername8551
      @whatevername8551 23 дня назад

      It sounds lazy and ignorant, not cruel. As if anyone cared about the sad apathy of Steven Daniel lol.

    • @towritemichelle210
      @towritemichelle210 22 дня назад

      Now THAT was cruel​@@whatevername8551

  • @SimplyByNP
    @SimplyByNP 23 дня назад

    0:34 he is celebrating for 10 people😁

  • @stopdropnroll
    @stopdropnroll 23 дня назад +1

    Something tells me the empty bottles on the left of screen leads to ghastly deeds involving implements on the right of screen.

  • @user-yj9kd1ck7y
    @user-yj9kd1ck7y 4 дня назад

    Well you have totally missed the point on the Sahel Mr Zeihan. your analysis on the current Sahel issue is totally ambiguous.

  • @JoaoOliveira-rk8gv
    @JoaoOliveira-rk8gv 23 дня назад

    Russian are targeting former portuguese colonies as well for some reason. São Tomé and Guiné-Bissau. Wagner is also present in Mozambique. They started to run anti-colonial propaganda in these places.

  • @Ea-pb2tu
    @Ea-pb2tu 23 дня назад

    The west outsourcing low end manufacturing to west Africa seems quite likely. It’s a reasonably (sort of) west-friendly region and the west wouldn’t have to deal with any potential chaos in the suez or Red Sea.
    Massive infrastructure developments would have to take place but where there is will there is money

  • @adrianlindsay3194
    @adrianlindsay3194 22 дня назад

    Empty-ish bottles flanked by books. You have my attention sir.

  • @Life_is_Misery
    @Life_is_Misery 23 дня назад

    If the sahel didn't matter to the US and French, then why are they there in the first place? No one would go to a place and spend decades there if it didn't matter.

  • @cavebabybezerkers
    @cavebabybezerkers 23 дня назад +2

    Zeihan 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

  • @fredzurcher7118
    @fredzurcher7118 22 дня назад

    Looks like all those medicinal bottles in the background are empty.

  • @oldcynic6964
    @oldcynic6964 22 дня назад

    57 seconds for a question in a 4:30 video is poor use of time. All he had to say was "Pete, what's going on in West Africa ?"

  • @nuaua
    @nuaua 22 дня назад

    I think you’re forgetting pre colonial black Africa. It wasn’t always like this.

  • @martinpeyton2291
    @martinpeyton2291 22 дня назад

    Thats an awful lot of empty liquor bottles.

  • @psikeyhackr6914
    @psikeyhackr6914 23 дня назад +2

    We need a rational paradigm to justify a common objective, that would not provide a target, like Patrice Lumumba. How to provide that paradigm?
    *When Africa Awakes* (1920) by Hubert Harrison
    Harrison worked with Marcus Garvey but was not a fan.
    *Black Man's Burden* (1961) by Mack Reynolds
    The first book in the North Africa trilogy.
    The 2nd book *Border Breed nor Birth* is also free on the internet.
    Both are free on the Internet.
    *The Tyranny of Words* (1938) by Stuart Chase
    George Orwell mentioned Chase in an essay on politics. He published the book, *A New Deal* , shortly before FDR's famous speech. He was a member of FDR's brain trust.

  • @maximshtraus
    @maximshtraus 22 дня назад

    Superpower ? I think that’s a slight exaggeration.

  • @dimeoblade
    @dimeoblade 23 дня назад +1

    Wishful thinking

  • @frisk151
    @frisk151 23 дня назад

    Peter, you cut your long hair!??

  • @Emanon...
    @Emanon... 23 дня назад +3

    There are no longer western interests in West Africa. They've had enough of your greed and cruelty disguised as "human rights".
    Ukraine Vs Gaza showed us how you don't have any principles.

    • @DolphinWithIgloo-fg3ow
      @DolphinWithIgloo-fg3ow 23 дня назад

      Good. Russia and China can take in the African migrants. Even Ancient Rome knew that nothing will ever become of Africa. But we can all agree that the lighter skins will have to take care of them. They can’t do it themselves.

    • @user-wk4ee4bf8g
      @user-wk4ee4bf8g 23 дня назад

      Greed is part of all humanity. The west will find plenty of greedy assholes in your place to get leverage and expand their influence.

  • @post_eternity
    @post_eternity 23 дня назад +7

    Nigeria won't go there, there is no economic/political gain from going into the Sahel.

    • @TomTomicMic
      @TomTomicMic 23 дня назад +3

      Nigeria would only go in if it threatened their security, and as the Sahel is run by "rabbles" it seems unlikely!?!

    • @cavebabybezerkers
      @cavebabybezerkers 23 дня назад

      ​@@TomTomicMicSahel is ran by the true and living chiefs of the land. Nigeria will be regulated by black folks. Idk who yall kidding but yall funny asl. Just watch ⌚️

    • @hakichiki
      @hakichiki 23 дня назад +2

      Border security is an enormous economic and political gain, particularly for Nigeria .

  • @casiokill25
    @casiokill25 23 дня назад +1

    Nah! At first, i thought Zeihan had gotten a haircut... lol.

  • @chrisrosenkreuz23
    @chrisrosenkreuz23 23 дня назад +4

    this guy with the stories

  • @kylewalton7005
    @kylewalton7005 22 дня назад

    peter are you worried about china attempting to influence or even in a way take control of countries that have defaulted on their belt and road initiative projects?

  • @AlphonseNouveau
    @AlphonseNouveau 23 дня назад

    why should America care about West Africa? how much trade potential is there? how powerful can Nigeria become, realisticly? the most important questions are never answered by Peter.

    • @missyaman7053
      @missyaman7053 6 дней назад

      He was not asked any of these questions....

  • @hybridarmyoffreeworld
    @hybridarmyoffreeworld 23 дня назад +2

    Багдан Хмяльніцкі, тыпу таго, падпісаў некалі "глыбокую" інтэграцыю з
    ардой ... Украінскія гісторыкі кажуць, што Хмяльніцкі нічога не
    падпісваў, і ўсё гэта хлусня! І папер ніякіх не было і няма! А маскоўцы
    кажуцуь, што Хмяльніцкі -- падпісваў, але паперы не захаваліся бо моль
    іх паела. А ў выніку што? Украіна-Русь на доўгія стагоддзі патрапіла пад
    маскоўскі бот. Маскоўская арда скрала назву Украіны -- Русь, усю яе
    гісторыю, міталёгію, культуру і выдае яе за сваю. Узяць бы таго князя
    Уладзіміра, які, нібыта, хрысціў маскавітаў, яшчэ і помнікі яму нахабна
    ставяць. А далей і згадваць не хочацца.... Бальшіцкі джыхад , акупацыя БНР
    , вайна з Польшай , Эстоніей , Фінляндыей, Галадамор, рэпрэсіі, Курапаты, генацыд,
    Новая эмпэрыя , алеграхі, карупцыя , эмперыялізм ...
    І нaрэшце захоп 1/3 Азербалджана, Молдовы, Грузіі , анексія Крыма, вайна на Дамбасe,
    вайна, вайна ....

  • @gror7849
    @gror7849 23 дня назад

    Its about time for a local African power to start manifesting itself and be more assertive on what is going on in their back yard. Nigeria has the $$$ to buy proper military equipment from the West and/or from South Korea(great price vs quality ratios for their armaments!) . All they need is political will and get to work! Its your continent!
    Start acting like you indeed own the place Africa instead of letting the West, Russia, China and other Islamic Organizations dictate what goes where and who does what! Place your interests above the rest of the aforementioned players!!

  • @dropshot5948
    @dropshot5948 22 дня назад

    Where is Peter invexting his money?

  • @Lomhow
    @Lomhow 23 дня назад

    If we're not talking about Boko Haram are we even talking about Africa?
    How can we have an Africa super power when they struggle within their own borders?

    • @ikp4success
      @ikp4success 23 дня назад

      Boko Haram is unconventional force they hide with civilians, and the islamic preseence means those civilians will be compassionate with the islamic terrorists. Islamists see themselves as brothers of faith no matter the sin. But in terms of conventional warfare, Nigeria can subdue the whole west Africa and sub sahara independently if those nations are not supported by outside influence. When Niger and Burkina Faso, Mali had a coup Nigeria wanted to use force, The EU, U.S told Nigeria to not do that. So Ziehan is right, the only thing holding Nigeria total domination of the area is the west.

  • @TheMicroWavefresh
    @TheMicroWavefresh 23 дня назад

    Palm oil exports gonna explode ? Lol

  • @hydrogreen1111
    @hydrogreen1111 23 дня назад +16

    Africa: Russia and China are in; the US and France are out.

    • @AS-np3yq
      @AS-np3yq 23 дня назад +1

      Yep, and both, Russia and China are slave trader organ harvesting monsters.
      Bad.

    • @TomTomicMic
      @TomTomicMic 23 дня назад

      Africa is a basket case, however NATO is bigger around Russia since the invasion (Something Putin doesn't talk about much!) and more of Russia's neighbours are looking Westward, China is also upsetting its neighbours and they are looking to combine to counter the threat of China, so they are gaining influence in Africa for little purpose and losing influence at home with their neighbours!?!

    • @alexeidragunov4534
      @alexeidragunov4534 23 дня назад +1

      Cant wait for the protest agains Chinesse and Ruzzians colonizers and racist “never gonna happen”🤣

    • @samurisnark6940
      @samurisnark6940 23 дня назад +7

      Same crap, different flags

    • @Magnus12k
      @Magnus12k 23 дня назад

      😂😂😂 ​@@samurisnark6940, tell me you have no clue about who pidaruzzians are without telling so

  • @StPiter111
    @StPiter111 23 дня назад +1

    We have to ask Wagners😎