Help refill the Community Resilience Award Pool here: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=T8XXNNXVPVTZU All overflow in the next week goes to Dustin! Dustin is awesome. One day we were talking about some real downer stuff and he paused and he said "Dad doesn't give up". I think about that line and I'm so grateful to have that energy in our community. You're the best, man!
I’ve been farming in Kentucky since I was a kid. I’m almost 60 and the summers here are getting brutal. Where my farm is in the hills we get micro climates where the humidity and temperature are insane. I got heat sickness for the first time in my life a few years ago and it was no joke. I don’t think working during the hottest parts of the day outside here in summer will be possible for most people soon. Definitely not for the old.
@rexmundi8154 the changes on the ground are serious. And it's not like we have so many young farmers, it's almost all guys your age and older out there on the land. Thanks for your work, by the way. I hope my generation receives the wakeup call we need and do what we can to get a response rolling to these changes.
Every time you say "let's get ready" it brings a little tear to my eye! You and the volunteers like Dustin are a beacon of hope in the center of all the gloom and doom. Thank y'all for more great info.
As a Northern European who moved to the Southern U.S... thank you for this. Not enough people are concerned that in much of the U.S. you simply cannot live without power. I once locked myself out while working outside in 90+ degree + high humidity, and felt I'd die if I wouldn't get back into A.C. soon. Did not know this kind of deadly weather growing up (except cold maybe... but it's possibly to take measures against the cold without electricity). The chart makes me wish I lived further north.
@MeowImages seeing how small those lower-risk areas will get is pretty intense. Thanks for sharing your experience about adjusting to the climate- if you are not used to it and don't have a way to cool down, 90s and high humidity is no joke
There's been recent studies indicating dangerous temperatures start much lower than previously believed: The latest research indicates that the maximum wet-bulb temperature humans can tolerate is lower than previously thought, around 31°C (87.8°F) at 100% humidity, even for young and healthy individuals[4]. This is significantly lower than the widely accepted theoretical limit of 35°C (95°F) wet-bulb temperature. A study from Penn State University found that at wet-bulb temperatures above 31°C, the body can no longer effectively cool itself through sweating and begins gaining heat from the environment[4]. The critical wet-bulb temperature was found to range from 25-28°C in hot, dry environments and 30-31°C in warm, humid environments[4]. These findings suggest that the combination of high heat and humidity becomes dangerous for humans at lower levels than previously believed. Older adults and other vulnerable populations are likely to have even lower heat tolerance limits[4]. Furthermore, a 2020 study reported instances where wet-bulb temperatures briefly reached 35°C (95°F), previously thought to be almost non-existent, indicating we may be closer to the theoretical survivability limit than expected[1]. While wet-bulb temperatures above 35°C were once considered rare, recent data shows over 1,000 readings of 31°C (87.8°F) and around 80 readings of 33°C (91.4°F), highlighting the increasing frequency of extreme humid heat events[1]. The areas most at risk of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures are the humid tropics, including the monsoon regions of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Africa[3]. However, other regions like the Gulf Coast in the U.S. could also experience life-threatening conditions during heat waves. In summary, the latest research points to a lower heat and humidity tolerance threshold for humans, around 31°C wet-bulb temperature, which is being approached more frequently due to climate change[1][3][4]. Citations: [1] earthsky.org/earth/wet-bulb-temperature-explained-dangers/ [2] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature [3] www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-change-driving-dangerous-wet-bulb-temperatures-2023-08-09/ [4] www.psu.edu/news/research/story/humans-cant-endure-temperatures-and-humidities-high-previously-thought/ [5] www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wet-bulb-temperature (I used Perplexity.AI to get this information)
@Mike80528 thanks for this detailed and well-cited research update. Folks, this is important information to take into account. Resilience is all about building in margins, looks like we want those margins wide. As a cookable organism, I do have to say, I was leaning that way anyway.
@benevolencia4203 thank you for sharing this information. I'm not "hearting" your comment because I like it- but because I want to hold up your comment so more people can see it. People need to know what is happening.
@koicaine1230 nobody should feel any pressure to give so it hurts. We have people with different kinds of bandwidth in the community. Your on the ground ag info is an important contribution.
@EnvironmentalCoffeehouse Sandy, thanks so much for your kind words! I'm really looking forward to it- and folks, if you're interested, I'll be on Sandy's channel on the 24th at 9am Eastern
Good explanation and informative . Living in SW Florida for 34 years this is not a suprise at all . With hurricane threats and periods of time without infrastructure this is frightening. The building frenzy continues here as droves of people move here. If my children snd grandchildren had not grown up here I would be packing up & moving !
@PaulaTourville-po7fg I was in Homosassa with my mother in law last February. We flew into Orlando and drove there and the building frenzy up there made us both want to cry. So many forests being clear cut for terrible quality slab housing! People need places to live- but these big box houses in a place where you can't even get home insurance? Felt like a terrible Ponzi scheme! Wishing you and yours all the best. I feel for families like yours especially, where Florida is your generational home. Seeing all these things happening and feeling the change on the ground and in the sea, it must be very hard.
I work in plant and animal conservation. These maps make me wonder how our wild cousins will be able to adapt. Different species are going to have very different physiological tolerances and behavioral strategies. It's going to be a different world out there.
@mayfly552 are you familiar with this vulnerability assessment by Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission? glifwc.org/ClimateChange/VulnerabilityAssessment.html I admire this linked document very much. Navajo nation has a similarly excellent vulnerability assessment for the living things in their lands. The work being done by the tribal nations is cutting edge regarding these concerns, as well as ideas for how we can best respond to this habitat crisis.
@koicaine1230 that humidity is a serious factor. I feel like every talks about AC, no one talks about dehumidifiers! Those are a low cost, potentially low energy way we can improve indoor space under these increasingly difficult conditions.
@@AmericanResiliency Plants help reduce humidity too, I just Googled it 😆 but I'm glad I did! Apparently, English Ivy reduces 78% of airborne mold and humidity, don't grow it on trees though, it kills them. Nature is AMAZING!!!
@koicaine1230 awesome! I was doing some poking at how many house plants do you need to make enough oxygen for a human. I found it surprisingly feasible, but, that standard of "feasibility" might only hold true for plant maniacs like ourselves
... I am NOT made of Meat ! ... I am 95% fat by volume, which means that heat will just make me sizzle and spit until I vaporize into an oily, smelly haze ... My wife can hardly wait ! ...
Do you think meteorologists may begin using things like "wet bulb watch" during their forecasts, or tell what the current wet bulb is like they do with windchill and heat index? Maybe not now, but in 10-15 years perhaps.
@shaunstacey8609 I would not be surprised at all. Meteorologists as a group are extremely climate-aware. They're trying hard to figure out how to accurately communicate with the public without getting too many death threats. I've noticed a lot of new messaging attempts around extreme heat.
@@AmericanResiliency Very much agree. For years now, a huge focus of talks at the AMS (American Meteorological Society) annual meetings have been focused around better communicating information with the public, both in the short term and when it comes to climate. If you haven't gotten a chance to go to an AMS meeting, highly recommend it, happens every year in January.
There will surely be enough incidents before 10 years that reporting should happen sooner. Will it? Depends on how corrupt you feel the current news/government situation is.
@@BarderBetterFasterStronger worth highlighting that there are serious concerns about information access and corruption already. On the data side there are a lot of folks working today to back up what is now publicly available. Both Australia and the US have had serious problems before with data access related to political corruption.
Thank you. Local news description of wet bulb left me wondering how anyone was alive in Houston or New Orleans, much less other countries to the south.
I moved cross-country to a lower risk area, and focused my efforts on buying a home that has enough land for a permaculture garden. Now I'm fixing my 100 y.o. home in SE Pennsylvania, including digging swales and installing rainwater capture, as well as installing passive cooling features like tinting some windows, replacing wall insulation, and replacing caulk around windows to keep the outside, out.
@ShineOnBenevolentSun SE Pennsylvania has some super sweet places with great climate outlooks- nice choice. I live in an ~80 year old home in central Iowa. Love the quality old materials & I feel more confident screwing around and fixing stuff myself in an older home where I can see how everything works. Your flavor of deep resilience is what I like. Wishing your gardens a good year!
I think that progression is something people need to see! 2C sounds like a small number, how can people get it if we don't show them how they can understand? Even this visualization I know is too nerdy, but, it's more accessible than a lot of what's out there. And I don't know that we have the clarity to see the timeline much further out than 2C. I'm not saying 3-4 isn't gonna happen, I'm just saying, this is a problem we need to take in steps and keep learning.
@@AmericanResiliency I always keep in the back of my mind that only 6-7 C separate us from the ice age. Chasing a change that is half that value again in a fraction of the time will undoubtedly bring profound change. Those fractions of degrees stack up remarkably quickly.
@@AmericanResiliencyI know this is a question no one can really answer, but if you incorporated the effects of a slowing down or collapse of the AMOC, do you have any best guess about how that would change the climate on the East Coast, or even just in the potential for WBT? Would love to see a map similar to this that could incorporate and overlay model data (if there is any) in a scenario where the AMOC even slows down considerably. I imagine that is quite difficult to do, but that is the huge elephant in the room. I don't know whether there is much data or models for such a scenario. Anyhow, have to love GIS and the ability to help people visualize data such as this tool you guys have made!
@goldmund22 this is the dream, man- an integrated model! To my knowledge, none exist. But the paper in this video description: ruclips.net/video/PdbOXyBurFo/видео.html Has some wonderful figures showing projected changes for the first few decades of AMOC shift. Check out the potential hurricane impacts for the Gulf- super bad new there. But VA is far enough up, I think you'd be spared the worst of those storms. I'd consider those western mountains of VA to be a good 2-model pocket. Hard to say exactly what will happen- we just don't know- but all along that spine of Appalachia, there's tremendous potential for resilience. This is an older video, but as I've been studying the updated NCA5 projections, I would say these projections for Appalachia largely hold pretty well. Especially north of the Carolinas, looks like you get out of the worst of the storm pocket. ruclips.net/video/WPxdc-vGAjQ/видео.html
New subscriber. Very grateful to have found this channel. Are you on Twitter/X? While it can be a cesspool, there are many climate aware folks there who could benefit from your analysis. As a person who has lived with severe anxiety most of my life, I absolutely love your approach as factual but non-alarmist. Please keep yourself safe in this ongoing pandemic and troubling time. 💕
@DonnaAndCats, glad you're here! I'm not on many other platforms but probably as we grow someone will come into that role. Thanks for the good thoughts
2024 is already forecasted to have a 66% chance of being the hottest year on record, and a 95% chance of being in the top two hottest years. One thing I've noticed this year in Tennessee is that although the measured temperature isn't necessarily a shocking headline (yet), the humidity has felt terrible this year. Even at 75-80F measured temperature, the 50-60% humidity is pretty hard to tolerate if outside on a prolonged basis.
@timevaporwave ugh that does sound gross, that level of humidity is wearing over time. In Iowa the temps are well above normal. My flowering plants are about 5-6 weeks ahead- I have peonies that normally go on the fourth of July, they bloomed this weekend.
The risks in Texas are especially high due to these grid issues, thank you for bringing them up. People in Texas have already died because of grid failure. The projected increase in heat duration for Texas is so alarming. I hope visualizing the risk this way will help more people realize they need to take action to protect themselves.
@UnknownPascal-sc2nk I think accepting our power to shape landscapes and our collective future is critical to our survival. Many of us want to pretend like we are passive victims. We are terrifying terraforming apex predators.
Ironic indeed. Since many of our interventions-especially ones undertaken to gloss over problems H sapiens cause-come with unforeseen consequences. Too often a feedback loop follows.
Hey! Wishing you all well in Yuma! So here's what I hear about this heat risk for AZ. I wouldn't worry about it so much for Yuma as for the Phoenix area, where there is so much concrete the drainage is bad. The concern is, you get an unusual storm during the very hot part of the season, and the widespread standing water creates high humidity, killing heat conditions. Like I say, in Yuma, this specific wet bulb scenario isn't so much a concern, that would be a real freak situation. In Yuma, I'm sure you appreciate, the dry heat alone is the concern, especially for people who aren't used to it & don't have what they need to take care of themselves.
awesome maps, thanks for sharing. would be great if this included Puerto Rico as a part of the US since they are nearly completely dependent on the US policy, and also a colony.
@awanderingprince thanks for bringing this up. The reason Puerto Rico isn't on here is because the NCA5 didn't generate new detailed projections for Puerto Rico, and the whole chapter on Puerto Rico to my mind reads an insult to the needs of her people. The way Puerto Rico has been exploited is wrong, and it is clear from the NCA5 that the US has no big plans to get Puerto Rico the resources her people need to build resilience in the face of intense change. The info we have is at this link: nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/23/
This is why I feel like we shouldn't freak out as much as some do about the southeast. But it's worth noting, even tropical ecosystems have heat limits. When it gets too hot, the plants can't photosynthesize. This has been happening in some forests in Puerto Rico- really sad.
Interesting topic, but I'm unable to find what the actual wet bulb temperature or duration your map's colored risk levels 0 to 4+ correspond to as dangerous. I've replayed the video and looked at the map on the American Resiliency website, but all I see is at 1:33 "...95 degrees and high humidity", or broadly (without humidity or dewpoints) at 4:16. Thanks for your insight on that wet bulb temp. Where I live in Doña Ana County NM, we show a 4+ risk, while slightly "cooler" and drier Albuquerque in Bernalillo County is shown as a 2 risk...seems different than possible, other than how we average more 95+ or 100F+ highs and 70+ lows than ABQ. My red flag on that map is being grouped with all the 4+ in humid parts of Texas east of the Big Bend. In my county or El Paso TX, rarely is the dewpoint over 50F when our temperature is over 95F, and on our hand full of 105F+ days in summer, the dewpoint is usually
@desertdc123 thanks for your patience with my slow reply here. The goal of this visualization is to look at future risk duration. I do anticipate that different areas with higher risk durations would likely see varying numbers of actual wet bulb days. In Boise where it's quite arid, even though they are seeing a startling projected increase in very hot days, and so have a longer risk period, they probably won't actually go into wet bulb territory during the risk period unless there is a hot season precipitation event. I tried to make clear in the video that projected risk duration isn't going to have a 1:1 correlation with risk presence- but I apologize if this was unclear. And I'm not 100% confident I'm really answering your question here- happy to try and clarify better. Also I never got that email you sent- but, I was having problems with that after I switched over a bunch of my tech stuff a couple weeks ago. I think this weekend all the problems got worked out. If you want to try again, I'm at ar@americanresiliency.org
@goldmund22 there are some real gems along that coast- even in the face of sea level rise, some communities look very strong. I feel like it's worth saying, though, that in parts of that seemingly low-change area, the fact that we're looking to break 95 even a little bit is a big deal. Going from normal summer highs in the 70s to normal summer highs in the low 90s will stress the ecosystem. I sure hope those big trees can make it.
@@AmericanResiliency same. It's a beautiful part of the country, especially the coast. Here I'm on the other side in central Virginia, I have always been drawn to the mountains here in the western part of the state, this information has me considering a move that way sooner than later. Speaking to another video of yours I just came across about signs of changes in the AMOC, I will say this spring has felt much different and we've had a ton more rain than I can recall. It's anecdotal, but I'd be curious what other people have experienced throughout the east coast.
@goldmund22 I recently did an update for VA and those western mountains look really stable- great outlook, not even a big signal for extreme storms. I have a number of folks I talk with in NY and Pennsylvania - the ground reports have been consistent with your observations. Some places near the coast I hear the apple crop was lost due to early flowering and then freeze- in NY and CT
@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner I prefer maybe more of a hobbit-type situation- "In a hole in the ground there lived a hobbit. Not a nasty, dirty, wet hole, filled with the ends of worms and an oozy smell, nor yet a dry, bare, sandy hole with nothing in it to sit down on or to eat: it was a hobbit-hole, and that means comfort.” Whole hobbit lifestyle really seems like it has a lot to offer.
@leohorishny9561 Hamilton County OH is showing 2 additional weeks wet bulb risk at 1.5C and 3 additional weeks wet bulb risk at 2C. That's on top of baseline. I wouldn't call it a delightful outlook by any means- but it doesn't surprise me conditions look worse further south, either.
As the climate changes due to factors beyond human control, human Innovation must step up to provide energy and climate control systems for spaces in which humans can live.
@@AmericanResiliency Lots of people move to the south USA to escape high taxes of the northeast, but then where's the benefit when you could be killed by a tornado and have to rebuild every other year? But technology and innovation can solve a lot of these problems. We just need the government to get out of the way.
That's a reasonable and grounded correction- I try my best but I definitely still talk like a person who gleaned most of their vocabulary from reading.
@StonedApe78 I promise we got weed up north, too! More seriously, though, I am pretty concerned about Missouri's outlook. I was just looking at the outlook for the greater St Louis area and there are too many threats coming together for my tastes. Lot of deluge-type rain signals coming into view for many parts of Missouri.
@@ggray3671 I was looking at that metro area just recently in the Illinois video. So I know flooding is bad there already, but all the signs are pointing to the flooding going seriously next level. Also, the local hot season expansion in the STL metro is projected to be severe by 2C, with a regular peak over 105, and at least a full week over 100. In a humid climate, that sounds pretty bad. Check out the Illinois update from a couple weeks ago if you want to see the exact numbers, I'm very concerned about your particular area.
I came across a video that tangentially relates to this topic so I wanted to share: Phase Change Materials (PCM) for personal cooling Check out this video on how you can make a simple PCM at home that you can use to help keep yourself cool in the heat: ruclips.net/video/Nqxjfp4Gi0k/видео.html
@@AmericanResiliency I was just watching your latest video and when you mentioned this Wet Bulb video it reminded me of the PCM video I had recently seen...hopefully this will be of help to some. Keep up the great work! More and more people are waking up the reality we are facing.
Help refill the Community Resilience Award Pool here: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=T8XXNNXVPVTZU
All overflow in the next week goes to Dustin! Dustin is awesome. One day we were talking about some real downer stuff and he paused and he said "Dad doesn't give up". I think about that line and I'm so grateful to have that energy in our community. You're the best, man!
We did pretty good! No overflow this month, but we will be able to give a full award to the next winner in June
I’ve been farming in Kentucky since I was a kid. I’m almost 60 and the summers here are getting brutal. Where my farm is in the hills we get micro climates where the humidity and temperature are insane. I got heat sickness for the first time in my life a few years ago and it was no joke. I don’t think working during the hottest parts of the day outside here in summer will be possible for most people soon. Definitely not for the old.
@rexmundi8154 the changes on the ground are serious. And it's not like we have so many young farmers, it's almost all guys your age and older out there on the land. Thanks for your work, by the way. I hope my generation receives the wakeup call we need and do what we can to get a response rolling to these changes.
Every time you say "let's get ready" it brings a little tear to my eye! You and the volunteers like Dustin are a beacon of hope in the center of all the gloom and doom. Thank y'all for more great info.
@julieghoulie3 you're welcome! We'll try to keep it coming
As a Northern European who moved to the Southern U.S... thank you for this. Not enough people are concerned that in much of the U.S. you simply cannot live without power. I once locked myself out while working outside in 90+ degree + high humidity, and felt I'd die if I wouldn't get back into A.C. soon. Did not know this kind of deadly weather growing up (except cold maybe... but it's possibly to take measures against the cold without electricity). The chart makes me wish I lived further north.
@MeowImages seeing how small those lower-risk areas will get is pretty intense. Thanks for sharing your experience about adjusting to the climate- if you are not used to it and don't have a way to cool down, 90s and high humidity is no joke
That is amazing about the fund! Moving is so hard! Thank you for what you do here. You are a treasure.
@ProfessorDesiree thank you! I am so glad Dustin and his family are getting out of high-risk territory, I love seeing people take action.
Good job Dustin!! Woo hoo AR community!!
There's been recent studies indicating dangerous temperatures start much lower than previously believed:
The latest research indicates that the maximum wet-bulb temperature humans can tolerate is lower than previously thought, around 31°C (87.8°F) at 100% humidity, even for young and healthy individuals[4]. This is significantly lower than the widely accepted theoretical limit of 35°C (95°F) wet-bulb temperature.
A study from Penn State University found that at wet-bulb temperatures above 31°C, the body can no longer effectively cool itself through sweating and begins gaining heat from the environment[4]. The critical wet-bulb temperature was found to range from 25-28°C in hot, dry environments and 30-31°C in warm, humid environments[4].
These findings suggest that the combination of high heat and humidity becomes dangerous for humans at lower levels than previously believed. Older adults and other vulnerable populations are likely to have even lower heat tolerance limits[4].
Furthermore, a 2020 study reported instances where wet-bulb temperatures briefly reached 35°C (95°F), previously thought to be almost non-existent, indicating we may be closer to the theoretical survivability limit than expected[1].
While wet-bulb temperatures above 35°C were once considered rare, recent data shows over 1,000 readings of 31°C (87.8°F) and around 80 readings of 33°C (91.4°F), highlighting the increasing frequency of extreme humid heat events[1].
The areas most at risk of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures are the humid tropics, including the monsoon regions of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Africa[3]. However, other regions like the Gulf Coast in the U.S. could also experience life-threatening conditions during heat waves.
In summary, the latest research points to a lower heat and humidity tolerance threshold for humans, around 31°C wet-bulb temperature, which is being approached more frequently due to climate change[1][3][4].
Citations:
[1] earthsky.org/earth/wet-bulb-temperature-explained-dangers/
[2] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
[3] www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-change-driving-dangerous-wet-bulb-temperatures-2023-08-09/
[4] www.psu.edu/news/research/story/humans-cant-endure-temperatures-and-humidities-high-previously-thought/
[5] www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wet-bulb-temperature
(I used Perplexity.AI to get this information)
@Mike80528 thanks for this detailed and well-cited research update. Folks, this is important information to take into account. Resilience is all about building in margins, looks like we want those margins wide. As a cookable organism, I do have to say, I was leaning that way anyway.
FYI: Key West, Fla., recorded an all-time record high heat index on May 15, 2024 of 114.4°F
@benevolencia4203 thank you for sharing this information. I'm not "hearting" your comment because I like it- but because I want to hold up your comment so more people can see it. People need to know what is happening.
Excellent job Dustin!!!! I will donate when things are less tight ❤
@koicaine1230 nobody should feel any pressure to give so it hurts. We have people with different kinds of bandwidth in the community. Your on the ground ag info is an important contribution.
@@AmericanResiliency ❤️ Thank you ❤️ when we have extra we save some and donate some to causes that help people, like AR.
This was a great video. I really learned more than I already thought I knew! Can't wait to have you on as my guest! Sandy
@EnvironmentalCoffeehouse Sandy, thanks so much for your kind words! I'm really looking forward to it- and folks, if you're interested, I'll be on Sandy's channel on the 24th at 9am Eastern
@@AmericanResiliencywe will be tuning in for that video👍👍
Good explanation and informative . Living in SW Florida for 34 years this is not a suprise at all . With hurricane threats and periods of time without infrastructure this is frightening. The building frenzy continues here as droves of people move here. If my children snd grandchildren had not grown up here I would be packing up & moving !
@PaulaTourville-po7fg I was in Homosassa with my mother in law last February. We flew into Orlando and drove there and the building frenzy up there made us both want to cry. So many forests being clear cut for terrible quality slab housing! People need places to live- but these big box houses in a place where you can't even get home insurance? Felt like a terrible Ponzi scheme!
Wishing you and yours all the best. I feel for families like yours especially, where Florida is your generational home. Seeing all these things happening and feeling the change on the ground and in the sea, it must be very hard.
I work in plant and animal conservation. These maps make me wonder how our wild cousins will be able to adapt. Different species are going to have very different physiological tolerances and behavioral strategies. It's going to be a different world out there.
@mayfly552 are you familiar with this vulnerability assessment by Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission?
glifwc.org/ClimateChange/VulnerabilityAssessment.html
I admire this linked document very much. Navajo nation has a similarly excellent vulnerability assessment for the living things in their lands. The work being done by the tribal nations is cutting edge regarding these concerns, as well as ideas for how we can best respond to this habitat crisis.
We are definitely more humid than before in Georgia. Our temps haven't been higher (yet) but I can be inside, AC blowing and still dripping sweat.
@koicaine1230 that humidity is a serious factor. I feel like every talks about AC, no one talks about dehumidifiers! Those are a low cost, potentially low energy way we can improve indoor space under these increasingly difficult conditions.
@@AmericanResiliency I'm going to try and get one, it's ridiculous to be sitting in AC and sweating.
@@AmericanResiliency Plants help reduce humidity too, I just Googled it 😆 but I'm glad I did! Apparently, English Ivy reduces 78% of airborne mold and humidity, don't grow it on trees though, it kills them. Nature is AMAZING!!!
@koicaine1230 awesome! I was doing some poking at how many house plants do you need to make enough oxygen for a human. I found it surprisingly feasible, but, that standard of "feasibility" might only hold true for plant maniacs like ourselves
@@AmericanResiliency We are changing that ❤️
Graphics are fantastic, thanks once again!
@osumoose you're welcome!
... I am NOT made of Meat ! ... I am 95% fat by volume, which means that heat will just make me sizzle and spit until I vaporize into an oily, smelly haze ...
My wife can hardly wait ! ...
lol gross! it's very sweet that your wife is safe in the escape pod, though?
@@AmericanResiliency I wouldn't have it any other way ! ... I'm a porker, but I'm a good hubby ...
😂😂
Some of the best science communication I've ever seen, thank you!
@arlotally I am touched! You are completely welcome, I'm so glad to be able to do this work.
Do you think meteorologists may begin using things like "wet bulb watch" during their forecasts, or tell what the current wet bulb is like they do with windchill and heat index? Maybe not now, but in 10-15 years perhaps.
@shaunstacey8609 I would not be surprised at all. Meteorologists as a group are extremely climate-aware. They're trying hard to figure out how to accurately communicate with the public without getting too many death threats. I've noticed a lot of new messaging attempts around extreme heat.
@@AmericanResiliency Very much agree. For years now, a huge focus of talks at the AMS (American Meteorological Society) annual meetings have been focused around better communicating information with the public, both in the short term and when it comes to climate. If you haven't gotten a chance to go to an AMS meeting, highly recommend it, happens every year in January.
@@GrantTheWxGuy that would be really cool, I never thought to go. Thanks for the idea.
There will surely be enough incidents before 10 years that reporting should happen sooner. Will it? Depends on how corrupt you feel the current news/government situation is.
@@BarderBetterFasterStronger worth highlighting that there are serious concerns about information access and corruption already. On the data side there are a lot of folks working today to back up what is now publicly available. Both Australia and the US have had serious problems before with data access related to political corruption.
You rock Dustin!
Thank you. Local news description of wet bulb left me wondering how anyone was alive in Houston or New Orleans, much less other countries to the south.
You're welcome! Agree- the way this threat is sensationalized, I think it can discourage people from taking appropriate precautions.
I moved cross-country to a lower risk area, and focused my efforts on buying a home that has enough land for a permaculture garden. Now I'm fixing my 100 y.o. home in SE Pennsylvania, including digging swales and installing rainwater capture, as well as installing passive cooling features like tinting some windows, replacing wall insulation, and replacing caulk around windows to keep the outside, out.
@ShineOnBenevolentSun SE Pennsylvania has some super sweet places with great climate outlooks- nice choice. I live in an ~80 year old home in central Iowa. Love the quality old materials & I feel more confident screwing around and fixing stuff myself in an older home where I can see how everything works. Your flavor of deep resilience is what I like. Wishing your gardens a good year!
The progression of level 5 risk from 1.5C to 2C is stunning. 3-4 C is going to be quite a ride.
I think that progression is something people need to see! 2C sounds like a small number, how can people get it if we don't show them how they can understand? Even this visualization I know is too nerdy, but, it's more accessible than a lot of what's out there.
And I don't know that we have the clarity to see the timeline much further out than 2C. I'm not saying 3-4 isn't gonna happen, I'm just saying, this is a problem we need to take in steps and keep learning.
@@AmericanResiliency I always keep in the back of my mind that only 6-7 C separate us from the ice age. Chasing a change that is half that value again in a fraction of the time will undoubtedly bring profound change. Those fractions of degrees stack up remarkably quickly.
@maxshields1055 that ice age comparison is a good way of communicating how much global degrees matter
@@AmericanResiliencyI know this is a question no one can really answer, but if you incorporated the effects of a slowing down or collapse of the AMOC, do you have any best guess about how that would change the climate on the East Coast, or even just in the potential for WBT?
Would love to see a map similar to this that could incorporate and overlay model data (if there is any) in a scenario where the AMOC even slows down considerably. I imagine that is quite difficult to do, but that is the huge elephant in the room. I don't know whether there is much data or models for such a scenario.
Anyhow, have to love GIS and the ability to help people visualize data such as this tool you guys have made!
@goldmund22 this is the dream, man- an integrated model! To my knowledge, none exist. But the paper in this video description:
ruclips.net/video/PdbOXyBurFo/видео.html
Has some wonderful figures showing projected changes for the first few decades of AMOC shift. Check out the potential hurricane impacts for the Gulf- super bad new there.
But VA is far enough up, I think you'd be spared the worst of those storms. I'd consider those western mountains of VA to be a good 2-model pocket. Hard to say exactly what will happen- we just don't know- but all along that spine of Appalachia, there's tremendous potential for resilience.
This is an older video, but as I've been studying the updated NCA5 projections, I would say these projections for Appalachia largely hold pretty well. Especially north of the Carolinas, looks like you get out of the worst of the storm pocket.
ruclips.net/video/WPxdc-vGAjQ/видео.html
Do you do the outlooks for any other areas other than North America. I would be quite interested in where I am which is Alberta, Canada
@Canuckiwi I have this overview video for Canada, the tools in the video description are pretty cool!
ruclips.net/video/xvNDy9fN9zE/видео.html
New subscriber. Very grateful to have found this channel. Are you on Twitter/X? While it can be a cesspool, there are many climate aware folks there who could benefit from your analysis. As a person who has lived with severe anxiety most of my life, I absolutely love your approach as factual but non-alarmist.
Please keep yourself safe in this ongoing pandemic and troubling time. 💕
@DonnaAndCats, glad you're here! I'm not on many other platforms but probably as we grow someone will come into that role. Thanks for the good thoughts
Thanks for sharing this work and your knowledge!
@goldmund22, thanks so much for your support!
2024 is already forecasted to have a 66% chance of being the hottest year on record, and a 95% chance of being in the top two hottest years. One thing I've noticed this year in Tennessee is that although the measured temperature isn't necessarily a shocking headline (yet), the humidity has felt terrible this year. Even at 75-80F measured temperature, the 50-60% humidity is pretty hard to tolerate if outside on a prolonged basis.
@timevaporwave ugh that does sound gross, that level of humidity is wearing over time.
In Iowa the temps are well above normal. My flowering plants are about 5-6 weeks ahead- I have peonies that normally go on the fourth of July, they bloomed this weekend.
Texas has its own power grid and therefore cannot import or export power to other states. When we hit 120+° the grid will fry and we will die.
The risks in Texas are especially high due to these grid issues, thank you for bringing them up. People in Texas have already died because of grid failure. The projected increase in heat duration for Texas is so alarming. I hope visualizing the risk this way will help more people realize they need to take action to protect themselves.
Honeywell mission statement "The Future Is What We Make It". Ironic, no?
@UnknownPascal-sc2nk I think accepting our power to shape landscapes and our collective future is critical to our survival. Many of us want to pretend like we are passive victims. We are terrifying terraforming apex predators.
Ironic indeed. Since many of our interventions-especially ones undertaken to gloss over problems H sapiens cause-come with unforeseen consequences. Too often a feedback loop follows.
What is sous vide incident? I live in Yuma AZ
Hey! Wishing you all well in Yuma! So here's what I hear about this heat risk for AZ. I wouldn't worry about it so much for Yuma as for the Phoenix area, where there is so much concrete the drainage is bad. The concern is, you get an unusual storm during the very hot part of the season, and the widespread standing water creates high humidity, killing heat conditions.
Like I say, in Yuma, this specific wet bulb scenario isn't so much a concern, that would be a real freak situation. In Yuma, I'm sure you appreciate, the dry heat alone is the concern, especially for people who aren't used to it & don't have what they need to take care of themselves.
awesome maps, thanks for sharing. would be great if this included Puerto Rico as a part of the US since they are nearly completely dependent on the US policy, and also a colony.
@awanderingprince thanks for bringing this up. The reason Puerto Rico isn't on here is because the NCA5 didn't generate new detailed projections for Puerto Rico, and the whole chapter on Puerto Rico to my mind reads an insult to the needs of her people. The way Puerto Rico has been exploited is wrong, and it is clear from the NCA5 that the US has no big plans to get Puerto Rico the resources her people need to build resilience in the face of intense change.
The info we have is at this link: nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/23/
Wet bulb is great for humid places of the world such as the tropics
This is why I feel like we shouldn't freak out as much as some do about the southeast. But it's worth noting, even tropical ecosystems have heat limits. When it gets too hot, the plants can't photosynthesize. This has been happening in some forests in Puerto Rico- really sad.
Liked, subscribed and algo boost!
@davidwatson7604 thank you!
Interesting topic, but I'm unable to find what the actual wet bulb temperature or duration your map's colored risk levels 0 to 4+ correspond to as dangerous. I've replayed the video and looked at the map on the American Resiliency website, but all I see is at 1:33 "...95 degrees and high humidity", or broadly (without humidity or dewpoints) at 4:16. Thanks for your insight on that wet bulb temp.
Where I live in Doña Ana County NM, we show a 4+ risk, while slightly "cooler" and drier Albuquerque in Bernalillo County is shown as a 2 risk...seems different than possible, other than how we average more 95+ or 100F+ highs and 70+ lows than ABQ.
My red flag on that map is being grouped with all the 4+ in humid parts of Texas east of the Big Bend. In my county or El Paso TX, rarely is the dewpoint over 50F when our temperature is over 95F, and on our hand full of 105F+ days in summer, the dewpoint is usually
@desertdc123 thanks for your patience with my slow reply here.
The goal of this visualization is to look at future risk duration. I do anticipate that different areas with higher risk durations would likely see varying numbers of actual wet bulb days. In Boise where it's quite arid, even though they are seeing a startling projected increase in very hot days, and so have a longer risk period, they probably won't actually go into wet bulb territory during the risk period unless there is a hot season precipitation event.
I tried to make clear in the video that projected risk duration isn't going to have a 1:1 correlation with risk presence- but I apologize if this was unclear. And I'm not 100% confident I'm really answering your question here- happy to try and clarify better.
Also I never got that email you sent- but, I was having problems with that after I switched over a bunch of my tech stuff a couple weeks ago. I think this weekend all the problems got worked out. If you want to try again, I'm at ar@americanresiliency.org
Thanks!
@michaelbehlen1842 I appreciate your support!
Thanks for presenting this, very helpful to have a map. Just to confirm, the map on the left is 1.5 C and the right is 2.0 C?
@goldmund22 that is correct- glad it's useful to you
Notice how the coast of the Pacific Northwest barely changes, wild.
@goldmund22 there are some real gems along that coast- even in the face of sea level rise, some communities look very strong.
I feel like it's worth saying, though, that in parts of that seemingly low-change area, the fact that we're looking to break 95 even a little bit is a big deal. Going from normal summer highs in the 70s to normal summer highs in the low 90s will stress the ecosystem. I sure hope those big trees can make it.
@@AmericanResiliency same. It's a beautiful part of the country, especially the coast. Here I'm on the other side in central Virginia, I have always been drawn to the mountains here in the western part of the state, this information has me considering a move that way sooner than later.
Speaking to another video of yours I just came across about signs of changes in the AMOC, I will say this spring has felt much different and we've had a ton more rain than I can recall. It's anecdotal, but I'd be curious what other people have experienced throughout the east coast.
@goldmund22 I recently did an update for VA and those western mountains look really stable- great outlook, not even a big signal for extreme storms.
I have a number of folks I talk with in NY and Pennsylvania - the ground reports have been consistent with your observations. Some places near the coast I hear the apple crop was lost due to early flowering and then freeze- in NY and CT
Higher wet bulb is not cool. More like this wet bulb map is sooo hot!
I knew it. We're going back to living in caves.
@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner I prefer maybe more of a hobbit-type situation- "In a hole in the ground there lived a hobbit. Not a nasty, dirty, wet hole, filled with the ends of worms and an oozy smell, nor yet a dry, bare, sandy hole with nothing in it to sit down on or to eat: it was a hobbit-hole, and that means comfort.”
Whole hobbit lifestyle really seems like it has a lot to offer.
@@AmericanResiliency Ok then!
I am SHOCKED beyond measure Cincinnati is not in a high risk for WBE!😳😳😳 That community’s climate is HORRIBLE now!😳
@leohorishny9561 Hamilton County OH is showing 2 additional weeks wet bulb risk at 1.5C and 3 additional weeks wet bulb risk at 2C. That's on top of baseline. I wouldn't call it a delightful outlook by any means- but it doesn't surprise me conditions look worse further south, either.
As the climate changes due to factors beyond human control, human Innovation must step up to provide energy and climate control systems for spaces in which humans can live.
we are heading into a challenging future and I think it's important people get access to these projections as they make decisions about their lives.
@@AmericanResiliency Lots of people move to the south USA to escape high taxes of the northeast, but then where's the benefit when you could be killed by a tornado and have to rebuild every other year? But technology and innovation can solve a lot of these problems. We just need the government to get out of the way.
For future reference, "sous vide" is French, not Latin, so it's pronounced "soo veede", not "sooss veeday".
That's a reasonable and grounded correction- I try my best but I definitely still talk like a person who gleaned most of their vocabulary from reading.
Hawaii?
Search on the channel, I have a NCA4 and NCA5 version. They were both very grim, I will tell you in advance, and I am sorry to give you bad news
0 fk yeah.
I don't really take joy in that. Not sure I would like to live in such a dying world.
It's time for me to move out of Missouri then. 😬☠
@StonedApe78 I promise we got weed up north, too! More seriously, though, I am pretty concerned about Missouri's outlook. I was just looking at the outlook for the greater St Louis area and there are too many threats coming together for my tastes. Lot of deluge-type rain signals coming into view for many parts of Missouri.
@@AmericanResiliency Please expound upon this. I'm in the STL metro and am considering leaving.
@@ggray3671 I was looking at that metro area just recently in the Illinois video. So I know flooding is bad there already, but all the signs are pointing to the flooding going seriously next level. Also, the local hot season expansion in the STL metro is projected to be severe by 2C, with a regular peak over 105, and at least a full week over 100. In a humid climate, that sounds pretty bad. Check out the Illinois update from a couple weeks ago if you want to see the exact numbers, I'm very concerned about your particular area.
I came across a video that tangentially relates to this topic so I wanted to share: Phase Change Materials (PCM) for personal cooling
Check out this video on how you can make a simple PCM at home that you can use to help keep yourself cool in the heat:
ruclips.net/video/Nqxjfp4Gi0k/видео.html
@Mike80528 this is a cool video- I've seen it going around, glad to have the link here!
@@AmericanResiliency I was just watching your latest video and when you mentioned this Wet Bulb video it reminded me of the PCM video I had recently seen...hopefully this will be of help to some.
Keep up the great work! More and more people are waking up the reality we are facing.
Dustin is amazing! This community is amazing! 🥹🥹🥹
@Corrie-fd9ww I am so grateful for where we are as a community today, and I feel like we can do it! We can make the path.
Thanks!
@gretchenducksoup thanks so much! Really appreciate your support!