What's Up With The Kids These Days? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 10 апр 2024
- In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org.
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I was in elementary when Trump was elected and just about to finish middle school when Covid hit and yet I will be 18 this fall and will vote
Good on you for taking an interest. Who are you leaning toward at this point?
@@FireEverLivingThey're 18 and listening to 538, lol. Who do you think?
Blessed Galen for trying to keep this podcast non-partisan and data driven 🫡
Seriously these guests were awful and completely partisan but Galen made it worth the watch
@@colincagle4185 This, sadly, is my least favorite 538 podcast episode😞
Hearing that a side effect of the Trump presidency is his behavior as president was normalized to children coming of age around that time is one of the most depressing things I've heard. This is perhaps one of the most damaging aspects of his presidency, is that he has degraded the office of the presidency and lowered the standard of acceptable behavior for an entire generation. Truly disheartening.
I agree in part, but this was going on way before President Trump was in office. If you look at some politicians in Congress, on both sides of the aisle, there are disgusting people who say inappropriate things . Let’s not pretend that this is “only” Trump or that he started it. I personally blame MSNBC and Fox News and all their punditry for the degradation of political talk in the country.
Hahaha. Like Biden hasn't been as bad.
Don’t blame him for the way kids act nowadays, that’s entirely a failure of the parents
Tom is a bot account
@@ScottCleve33No, he hasn't been.
Love FiveThirtyEight because it's informative and makes cold, ideology free analysis. It hurts to see Galen having to push back against Della Volpe who is basically campaigning for Biden. Great job Galen, next time please invite people who can their leave political alliances out of the door.
I will say that I criticized the poll Jain did, and he did engage with me and had a discussion about my criticisms. So respect.
I've thought about this. And my take is this: If you owned a home or had stock market investments, you still did fine in this economy. Those asset classes went up, and softened the hit from inflation. But if you're young there is no home equity and rent has slammed your pay. Still, your relevant statement, if all other factors stay the same. We know they are massively shifting toward Biden due to abortion. If he wins the women vote, he takes the election.
Cheers to almost 200k subscribers! 🙌
Volpe seemed really defensive in this episode.
12:45 to me it makes complete sense that left wing young people are not identifying as liberal as much.
Ignorance is bliss!
Could you do a segment on how badly Biden is losing minorities. And that statement Trump made, "Black men are voting for me because they have bad experiences with the criminal justice system just like me.
They literally did a video on this last week lol
@@CB38096 Hahaha. I'm always late to the party.
@@themarktauberDid you go back and listen to it yet?
@@jakeleisure8326 Yes, everything. Unencouraging. An inert electorate favors Trump
if young people had an issue like social security that was pressing and critical to their day-to-day experiences, they would turn out like older people do every election. Politicians for generations have been burned by seniors when they try to mess with social security.
Abortion rights and inflation are pretty big ones. I do see young people turning out more often lately, but definitely not in the same numbers as the older generations.
I don't think that's the issue. Its just harder to get an 18 yr old to show up at a library on a random Tuesday to fill out a worksheet compared to your average senior citizen
They just have more goin on, ya know 😄
I was almost halfway through before I noticed and then started judging him for wearing the AirPodsMax
I see why you had the Harvard pollster guy on, but he was so clearly a Biden partisan that it made it incredibly hard to take his analysis seriously.
Taking taxpayer dollars and paying off peoples student loans is not a “gimmick”? Give me a break. A fundamental principle of America is if you take out a loan, you pay it back. Student loan debt forgiveness is absolutely a gimmick and a freebie. Hell, I might even vote for someone if they decided to give me free money.
Your comment is confusing. First you say a fundamental principle is if you take out a loan that you pay it back and yet you sound like you support student debt forgiveness.
You can declare bankruptcy every 7 years dude. Wtf are you talking about?
Taking out loans that never get paid back is about as American as baseball on Philadelphia bro
@jakeleisure8326
That is the wrong way to look at it you're just begging to start a second depression by setting that example
@@YankeeDoodle2 By what metric do you figure? Record stock market, historically low unemployment and inflations down to 3.5% from 9%
The nation's debt to gdp ratio is a bit higher than you'd like to see, sure, but it's not as bad as you think
@jakeleisure8326
Pre biden metrics before they changed them to suit bidens horrible economy the ones that show we are nearing depression levels again
Lakshya is one of my favorite guests on this pod, hope to hear from him again soon
"I feel strongly. . " Yeah, we get where you're coming from.
Damn Galen, you crushed these guys
Taylor Swift will leave the country if President Biden does not get re-elected!😮
I might just have to vote for Trump now. Although I can't trust these lying celebrities to keep their word. Tons of them said they'd leave the last time Trump was elected and yet they didn't go anywhere.
I voted for Biden because I thought he’d do real action on climate and COVID. Instead he’s set all-time records for fossil fuel production and pretended COVID is a cold while long COVID and disability rates skyrocket
Millenials grew up in a different time politicallly. Many millenials first political experiences were seeing the disaster of Bush's presidency (went from mid 60% approval to 30%, worst economic disaster since the great depression, 2 wars that americans eventually turned against), and the "hope" of the Obama campaign. I'd argue that gen z's first political experiences are less one sided and more cynical. Historically unpopular cantidates, constant congressional deadlock, and just general hyper partisanship.
In the end there was no hope in Obama
Yo Della Volpe is childishly defensive and aggressive to prove his partisan points.
Asking young, uninformed, fickle voters about complicated issues they do not understand will not give you good data points.
it would seem older people are no more likely to be informed these days
I would vote for Biden because of the threat of National ban on abortion if Trump wins. But, others can vote against their interest if they want to. They need to remember it was a choice they made.
Um ask yourself why pot is still illegal? Likewise Biden's policies on Israel are incredibly unpopular ? These are not hard questions.
They seem to be slow walking pot state by state. It'll be a non issue in 20 years but can be a non core issue nowadays.
Pot is still illegal by federal law because Congress is split with republicans controlling the House, so Biden is unable to sign legislation to legalize pot. I do agree with you the Biden has not taken a sufficient stance regarding the Gaza conflict. My advice would be to hold Biden accountable for the policy positions that he is responsible for (U.S. response to the Gaza conflict) and dont blame Biden for things he does not control (Congress & pot legislation).
21 U.S. Code §812(c), §841, §842, & §843 requires an act of Congress to change.
22 U.S. Code §8602 & §8603 also requires an act of Congress to change.
Don't know what he's done for me. .....how about preventing a huge recession everyone said was a sure thing. How about passing the largest ecology forward law in history.
Who biden? He caused the recession we're in and the climate forward bill is nonsense
what is wrong with these two so called "analyst". yeah i know their are pro-democrats and anti-trump, but can at least they be more professional? all of their argument is more like a democrats propaganda. and all of these argument are based on what their want to think, what their feels, personal opinion, if and what, and what their hope will happen. i thought an analyst of polls are suppose to be commenting on the polls finding, not arguing against it. this two "analyst" spend 90 percent of their time arguing against the poll finding lol. how about you just said clearly, "i dont trust any polls that anti-biden or pro trump". just show your biases clearly instead of pathetically acting like some rational pundits.
Who do you listen to? Lol
Liberalism is a moderate, centrist ideology that has been in practice since the 1600s. There are progressive liberals and there are conservative liberals. Most progressives have moved beyond liberalism.
It's just a change in language. Liberalism from the 1600s has nothing to do with liberalism of today
That why you get the term "classical liberal" which basically means libertarian
The definition of liberal has always been shifting and will probably continue to shift
1600s liberal= Today's libertarian
2000s liberal= Today's progressives
Today's liberal= Centrist
@@jakeleisure8326 no, I am a progressive and liberals are not in the progressive movement. Liberals are moderate or conservative because liberalism is a centrist ideology today. Times have changed, and what was progressive is now moderate. Progressives have moved on to market socialism or social libertarianism. Liberals support free markets, free enterprise, austerity, and "public/private" partnerships like the one between the Department of Education and the corporation Mohela. Progressives are not free market radicals like liberals are.
@@jl8942 Ya, I mean I might quibble a bit on your definition of the modern liberal but I feel like we are more or less in agreement
For instance, there are plenty of people who agree with progressive policy position down the line who would still refer to themselves as liberal because they are not aware of this very recent change in language
@@jakeleisure8326 liberalism is already well defined, it is a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise. In a modern society nothing further to the right of liberalism is reasonable, rational, or tolerable. Joe Biden doesn't support Medicare for All or free access to higher education and he proudly calls himself a capitalist... Liberals are not progressive. If our two party system actually made sense then Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Liz Cheney, and Adam Kinzinger would be the standard for a moderate conservative Republican party; and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, AOC, and Maxwell Frost would be the standard for a moderate progressive Democratic party.
It is not clear to me why anyone would think that Trump would be better on the economy
Because rich guy make country rich, duh
@@jakeleisure8326 that’s terribly flawed logic. All our past presidents have been rich & our country is already the richest in the world. Presidents can’t & don’t make voters rich. This particular one is doing this for himself.
I don’t understand how abortion could possibly be the number one issue for anyone.
It’s a robot vote. Certain people robotically vote for all abortion possible no matter what. Europe would vote down most of the abortion laws passed in the US.
Really? It feels like it makes perfect sense. It concerns a huge portion of the population (anyone who's sexually active), has long-term consequences, and is very polarized. There's a reason why both sides get riled up by it.
@@chaos2infernoApproximately 99.5% of women won’t have an abortion this year. That’s the number one issue? 60% of people own stock and 100% of people engage in the economy. Seems FAR FAR more important, no?
@@markaisenberg6641 it’s that .5% that matters. To have zero chance of having the option is way worse.
@@markaisenberg6641 It's about life. Having a child is probably the most life-changing event for any human. A state interfering in such deeply personal matters like they are your father.. Yes, many people find that unacceptable.
@4:03 "Trump-curious" wording is needlessly sexual and inappropriate
Wtf?
You can be curious about other things than sex. There is nothing inherintly sexual about that word.
@@aknopf8173 I am the wordology Nazi and I have spoken.
Sorry you got over stimulated.
It’s basic economics, supply and demand. if you want the price of universities to go down build more universities. If you want the prices of universities to go up do student loan forgiveness. Not only is it unfair and a bad idea. It will make the problem significantly worse
What are you talking about? Student loans are the reasons colleges got so expensive since they knew everyone had ludicrous amounts of money so colleges could justify spending way more money knowing the would just get the money from the loans. They could build lazy rivers and rock climbing walls and esports rooms to try to lure in better students while also charging more and then not having to pay taxes or meet obligations to lower tuitions because the constant construction means they are constantly operating at a loss while also giving themselves higher pay raises and hiring more administrators. Colleges have way way more administrators these days and a huge amount of the increase in prices can be directly tied to them and they were hired because student loans made it possible. It was a system meant to make going to college easier but universities just flipped it on its head.
Supply and demand works both ways, as in it also works for money supply. If you give people access to countless student loans then the money supply will increase meaning the value of what you offer for exchange of it goes down.
State schools have also greatly increased the cost of tuition because they know if a state wants to shrink its budget then they can do it for their state universities and student loans will cover the rest.
Now interest rates are killing our middle class and leading to high skilled people who can’t afford to take risks. We need to get rid of student loans and just go to tax funded universities so that the government has more control over the price like it is doing with prescription drugs. Or just make student loans have no or very low set interest where you pay back 10% or so of your paycheck every week until it’s paid off or until a period of 15 years has gone by or so and then it’s cleared so that it’s not paralyzing our economy
@@Alphabunsquad I’m not sure you understood at all what I was talking about. Student loans are the problem. Doing post loan forgiveness makes the problem worse. Go ahead and take out a huge loan. Go ahead and Jack prices through the roof. Someone else will pay it off. It’s fucking sick.
I agree. I belive the cure student loan system is a scam. Politicians are pushing people to go to college which have huge tuitions and then those same politicians forgive those loans. This makes the universities very very rich and only about 62% of them graduate. And that number will only get worse as college tuitions don't have to be paid off. Likewise the cost of tuition will only get worse.
To me this reeks of a way to funnel money to the universities. These same politicians who demonize the Uber wealthy and say that they're gouging the consumers basically want to bankroll universities. Something stinks to high hell here.
“Biden stole my college experience that I could never have back.”
No mention of a genocide? Odd
What genocide?
Biden has handled 10/7 quite well but I suspect you're unfamiliar with the definition of genocide
As a “kid”(20yo) I’m voting for Trump
L
Says a lot about your maturity
Mate. Your biggest voting issue is TikTok….
Thank you ... as a mid 20 year old, I will too. Not because he's perfect, but because he will make the longterm decisions that will help this Union back towards Federalism (such as appointing Constitutionalist Justices).
@@toddlund I knew I wasn’t the only politically aware trump voter in this comment section. I’m a “America First” kinda guy, that always appealed to me.
Too much of a focus on Ukraine and Israel in my opinion. Let’s get back to making THIS country great again.