Has The Gulf's Mega Finance Experiment Now Failed?
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- Опубликовано: 15 сен 2024
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Exploring the incredible transformation of the Persian Gulf from a collection of small fishing villages to the global epicenter of oil-fueled opulence. Cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh have risen from the sands with grand visions of becoming world-class business and tourist destinations. But is this meteoric rise sustainable, or just a facade built on dwindling oil reserves? We delve into the ambitious projects, the looming challenges, and the critical question of what happens when the oil runs out. Will these cities thrive in a post-oil world, or are they destined to become relics of a forgotten boom?
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No matter how poorly you manage your national economy, you always have the silver lining of not being Venezuela.
You mean sanctioned to death?
@@ibizawavey8630 Oh please, tell me you aren't about to imply that Venezuela has no responsibility for poorly managing its economy? Because that would be ridiculous.
@@ibizawavey8630 Lol. It's dying due to the incredible corruption and incompetence of Maduro and, before him Chavez. It shouldn't be surprising to anyone that Chavez's daughter is a multi-Billionaire, and Maduro is following in Hugo's foot steps.
@@ibizawavey8630 Always blame sanction instead the stupidity of Venezuelan government
@@ibizawavey8630 You do know that Venezuela's extreme economic crash started long before any sanctions were aimed at them, right?
The Saudi investment fund owns approximately 60% of Lucid, but Lucid does not currently do design or manufacturing in Saudi Arabia. They’re based in California with a factory in Arizona, and a future Saudi Arabian facility is a “long term” plan with no announced size or date.
Also, as far as I can tell from their packaging, electric motor design, and efficiency in using the electricity they have they are one of the better engineered EVs out there today.
What gives me the most pause in terms of buying one is whether or not they'll be around 5-10 years from now.
Less of a big deal if someone is just leasing.
@@coreyhipps7483 They are following the same strategy Tesla did. Make luxury cars and build a brand associated with luxury, then make cheap cars that the average person can afford. Pretty good strategy, and at a good time too. Elon seems to be bored of Tesla, and a lot of people dont want to support a right wing lun*atic. So its gonna give Lucid a better chance at taking market share once they release the affordable EV
@@coreyhipps7483the problem is, and I might be way off in my prediction, electric cars will be for middle class and working class in the future. ICE cars would mostly be used by rich folks shifting the current status quo. I say this because rich people always want to be different. So ICE cars for anyone who can afford carbon taxes and electric cars for poor people as they are more economical.
If this really happens, luxury electric cars would be an oxymoron making Lucid all but useless.
Nationalization of companies/resources will always occur if the owning state does not have leverage. It's completely arrogant to think you will be able to control foreign assets for centuries to come, it has never worked historically. Even the colonial governments in Africa & Iran are kicking out former owners.
@@mobashshirkareem976 I think we will see the ICE car market diminish greatly if/when there are fewer gas stations and it becomes less convenient to own and operate ICE.
I do not know if or when we may get to that point. I also do not know whether or not battery EVs as opposed to fuel cells or something else may suplant them.
I am very interested in how Europe, Japan, and China are going to shake out, which combined are a larger car market than the US and appear to have regulators that are much more willing to ban the sale of ICE vehicles.
Economics Explained, it would mean a lot to me if you made a video on the economy of Malaysia. That way, all your viewers and subscribers will learn about the country's GLCs (government-linked companies), ethnic-based politics, ethnic-based affirmative action policies, and how they all play a major role in Malaysia's economy. Please accept my request.
nama mat endon
Malysia is the perfect example of diversification
@@oussamaalaoui9121so why is it’s GDP per capita weaker than Singapore’s?
Yes please
Why would you want an Aussie to make a 20 min video roasting your country and its leaders?
Sincerely, a Singaporean
Now imagine someone in that 160km tunnel just fell down on the rails. Instant economic crash to the whole line.
in Saudia the train keeps going
I heard they plan to scoop up those bodies for the manufacture of Soylent Green.
just build one more set of tracks. The desert is also the next best thing for traversibility after open ocean - you can just run dune buggies.
Common theme I've noticed whether talking about Appalachia, OPEC countries, or even rural parts of England is the lack of investment for the people that live there.
If local economies are doing well, they will eventually diversify, suited to local conditions.
But most places have had a top-down approach, essentially adding window dressing to slash and burn economics, and keeping the rabble from ever gaining a foothold against their betters.
Gulf people simply don’t want to work. They have full freedom and government support to go to university and be productive members of society. Their universities have good international faculty and infrastructure that would be make European colleges green with envy. Their education is also 100% free and govt will take care of housing and food as well. Moreover, they have the option to study in any other country as well with everything covered by govt.
But they’d rather burn their money thanks to comfy and redundant govt jobs and the ruling class doesn’t care as long as they too can burn all their money.
So true
Well said
@@mobashshirkareem976 Appalachian people simply don’t want to work (ignoring the umpteen years working in a coal mine). They have full freedom and government loans to go to university and be productive members of society. US universities are world renown good with infrastructure that would be make European colleges green with envy.
But they’d rather do fentanyl and collect government checks and the ruling class doesn’t care as long as they too can burn all their money.
Rural england is very infrastructure-rich, compared to many other countries in Europe. Look at Bordeaux vs Birmingham - in France, the wealth is concentrated in the city, in England, the wealth is concentrated in rural Warwickshire county to the south of the city. Similar story in Manchester (Cheshire), Leeds (North Yorkshire), and even to a smaller extent London (Surrey). State subsidy to the countryside such as free motorways, utilities, and even free weekly waste collection is what makes this distribution possible in England. Conversely the cities are
As a native of the Gulf region, I would say that the only real, long-term solution is to start by reforming the education system. However, educated citizens would want to have a say in how the wealth is managed (i.e. democracy). Say this word and you will be thrown in jail (if you are luck), or worse.
I don't see any road to get there, not an obvious one. The Cold War is over and the US & Europe are out of the democracy building business. Any attempts by either would be called 'cultural imperalism" with China & Russia making the tensions worse.
Since the two biggest economic resources the region offers is oil and a shorter shipping route, there is no reason for anybody else to intervene.
Competition among dictators is better than large democracies. Most people are freer in UAE than they are in Europe, and particularly the fact that a large percentage of the population don't "belong there", means they are very open to moving if the conditions worsens. This again means that these dictators need to actually compete for their populations.
This is far far better than democracies where the ruling class knows that the population can never leaves because of their cultural connection to the land. Social sciences have shown again and again that there is extremely weak correlation between the policies enacted in democracies and what the population wants, when a powerful lobby wants something else to happen.
Democratic systems like the US and EU are far beyond anything that resembles a ruling system where the people decide what happens. Even in the EU, the parliament, the only directly elected body, does not even have the power to propose laws. Those that actually make laws, the council is so far removed from the vote that the system is extremely easy to corrupt and this can be measured when looking at policies enacted vs what the population wants.
Small dictatorships with very loose control over their populations, and populations where the economic output is based on their brains is a superb combination for happiness and growth.
I agree that reform of the education system is needed, but also language. What is the word for the correlation between what people want and what government does again? Oh, there is no word to describe this, only "democracy" which does no such thing.
This alignment is higher in UAE than France, Germany, or the UK, clearly. However, our education system does not deal with this measure, it only deals with teaching "democracy" and straight out lying about whether democracy means there is alignment between the people and the elites.
Marx did a correct analysis on this, the idea of class struggle, and the libertarians also did a correct analysis, taking into consideration the freedom of movement creating competition for workers. Neither of these things are taught in school. Both are good analysis' and both are against the idea of a democracy.
Thats not true. Having highly educated citizens has been shown to not be essential for economic development. Its nice, but not really as useful as people make it out to be. Also, education≠people wanting democracy.
China is literally a billion-strong counterpoint to your claim. Millions of graduates of higher education institutes, some of which are globally recognized (like Tsinghua), resulted in virtually no movement towards democracy. Otoh it resulted in the biggest poverty reduction in human history, so...
@@ArawnOfAnnwn China being a successful economy while being authoritarian isn't evidence that education leads does not to democracy, its just an example how hard it is to go from authoritarianism to democracy. Hundreds of millions of chinese would prefer living in democracy, they've just never known it and have no say in it.
Are these investments sustainable - No
Are these investments going to be capable of replacing the oil wealth and state revenue - Mostly No
What will happen when the oil money goes away - The states will collapse, because the only reason there’s any interest in such a historically volatile region is access to oil. That won’t change just because there’s a few nice beaches and a really tall building.
"Volatile region"
They had civilisation 6000 years ago when ur ancestors were in their caves, and that place has been one of the most developped in the world until the renaissance🤣🤣
And don't worry about them they invested billons and billons into all the major companies in the world.
Most states won’t collapse. Saudi will still have religious tourist money. UAE might just be diversified enough to survive and Qatar has natural gas which will be used for a decade or more after petroleum is replaced giving them a more time to diversify. But they will go through an extremely painful transition.
And yeah Bahrain and Kuwait will probably collapse.
@@DzSagaceYes, it is a volatile region. You can’t be that ignorant to not see that. Also, what good is all the money they invested if they spend a whole bunch of it on mega projects that accomplish nothing besides sinking money. Venezuela also invested its money and look at what happened to them. Though rather than them running out of oil it was instead no longer having the capacity to do so like they once did among other reasons.
@@mobashshirkareem976 Every gulf state who's only water access to the ocean is via the Strait of Hormuz will collapse - the Iranians will either force them to pay massive tolls or cut them off entirely, the Western world wont care , and the gulf states wont be able to do anything about it because their militaries are a joke. The Houthis have essentially cut off the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and the only thing keeping it from getting worse is a literal US Navy Battle group. Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Saudi, Iraq, and Bahrain are all toast in the long arc of geopolitics. Might be 50 years from now, maybe 100, nobody knows when the oil money will truly stop...but it will, and it will be ugly in the region when it does. Remember - Geography is Destiny
@@DzSagace Calm down kid, Europe had settled civilizations in 4000 BC too.
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Ruskies don't like it when someone disses Dubai.
Calling us bots for not agreeing with u is racist af
Maybe I'm just speaking for myself here, but I don't particularly care how luxurious the architecture of a tourist trap is if their laws and customs are so barbaric that half my family would be at risk of imprisonment for acting like normal human beings
Half of your family is gay? 😐
That is very true. The Gulf region is still the most backward region even in this century of prosperity because of easy exploits of oil wells.
Totally agree, there are so many insane things there: laws, human rights, ruling classes, wealth inequality, religious fundamentalism, mentality
tired of this Islamophobia. Who are you to judge the law of their land?
@@pluto8404 I'm a potential tourist who seems to have a lot of people agreeing with my sentiment. But if you want to keep seeing the tourist industry your monarch has dumped so much money into continuing to suffer be my guest.
Whatever happens to these economies i hope the hundreds and thousands of mistreated labourers are given justice.
😢 you sweet summer child 😢
You are incredibly foolish! Ask yourself why haven't the countries of these migrant workers complained? India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines...etc. These workers send billions of dollars back home every year in remittances. These workers are there by choice. Other than some very rare cases they can easily go back home. But they won't Lool! Until I hear the governments of these hard working people complaining, then I will take the opinion of some liberal in the west seriously. Worry about your own homeless epidemic...Drug addicts and crack heads infesting NYC, London, LA, San Francisco lool. Don't come to us with your moral high ground!
How wishfull and useless thinking~ keep being that way, the world needs their hopeful people to work.
And what about the hundreds of thousands of african kids that mined minearals so that u can write that from ur phone?
while hearing about these laborers treatment is awful , its a global thing , cheap labor is needed and poverty pushes people to such work making the cycle endless even if these economies vanished the mistreatment of low cost labor will always be there , whether its the gulf china africa etc
I wonder if some of these gulf states would become like Nauru once the oil money runs out and those flashy vanity projects fail to attract people as intended if they were to be completed.
Yes that is a possibility, but the Persian Gulf is in the heart of a volatile region, so it cannot be sidelined geographically. Look at Lebanon!
But we need to wait for another few decades to see what will happen but I don't think so oil companies will allow such thing to happen
@@sivx17 These countries have a very small number of citizens and large sovereign wealth funds, so I think they’ll end up kicking out their expats and just live off the wealth funds they’ve got, which would probably give them a standard of living similar to Latin American countries today.
Overall, not a bad fate to have.
As an Australian, I suspect you're right. There was mention here in Australia of migrating EVERYONE in nauru into Australia as our government put a migrant processing centre there and it was almost questioned if we were going to empty the country and some even questioned if it would be absorbed into Australia but that'd be stupid for legal reasons.
@@hollowsoul9870oil companies DON'T CARE once you run out of oil.
13:13 Transparency and gulf money in the same sentence is an oxymoron.
If you don’t find a means of multiplying your money, you will wake up one day to realize that the money you thought you had, had exhausted. Investment is a ladder to climb the financial wall.
Last year, I was working full time, budgeting groceries, unable to afford date nights, and missing time with my kids. Now I learned how to make money online. Now am a SAHM, homeschooling, and making profits every week.
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Every place is nice if you have money. No place is nice if you don't.
Interesting. And remember that, right or wrong, the cultural differences also play a part in how many people from other parts of the world would want to live, work, or vacation in the gulf states.
Can't drink, an off colored joke might get me in prison or executed, any female relatives are in potential danger, just showing interest in any local woman might get me in trouble.
Hard pass.
Great video - I can add couple of points of further interest based on some personal experience:
First, the Saudi 'private' sector is often heavily intertwined with government/royal family activities and goals.
The largest and most obvious example is Saudi Aramco, technically a private stock-listed company but functionally 94% owned by the royal family. Until its stock listing in 2017 it faced a tax rate of 85% which represented over 60% of all government revenues; this tax rate was decreased to 50% in 2017 to make the stock offering more attractive to investors which still results in an enormous percentage of government revenues coming from this one source.
Less directly, Saudi regulations often force foreign companies to work with locally-owned contractors when they mean to do business in the Kingdom. For example, foreign companies wanting to rent out their tugboats and other oilfield service ships to Aramco must do so by renting them to smaller Saudi-owned companies which rent the same ships in turn to Aramco on back-to-back contracts while taking a margin of a few percentage points. The Saudi government argues that this is a way to increase private sector involvement and reduce international companies' ability to price-gouge Aramco as contract prices are theoretically different between the many smaller private companies which interact with foreign shipowners. In practice, this is a handout from the government to Saudi citizens.
Second, the Lucid example mentioned is only one of many ways in which the Saudi government is attempting to increase its manufacturing capabilities. One new goal is to create a shipbuilding industry in the country with $1bn earmarked for the debt financing of Saudi-built commercial ships in late 2022. Where's the shipyard going to be built? You tell me! Not too many details exist on this one just yet.
Yeah, that part about contracts is something that exist in many of the gulf countries.
The reasoning wasn't for price gouging, but rather a belief that this system would "protect the domestic market from foreign competition." It didn't workout that way, since no homemade tugboats and other oilfield service ship companies developed in Saudi Arabia. It becomes a handout for the locally owned company and its owners who know how to game the system, while the other Saudis have no clue at all.
@@12q8 thanks!
@@12q8 This is also the reason why tourism doesn't work out in KSA. Most of the people working the unskilled labor jobs in hotels, restaurants and cleaning services that are needed to make tourists feel welcome are foreigners, and even if they are not, most of what tourists and the people who make money off of them spend their money on has to be imported into the kingdom.
The only real benefit from the tourism industry is the ease with which administrative processes work in Saudi Arabia. As a German currently living there I have to admit they make us look incredibly backwards in that area.
Any arm-chair economist can see that the gulf states are in for a rough ride.
India too
Their economy already stagnated like Eastern Europe for the last 20 years.
@@nntflow7058GDP of most gulf states have almost doubled in last 10 years.
@@shivamgupta6570 All of their gdp stagnated since the 2008 crash until the pandemic happens.
The official data doesn't support your claims.
@@shivamgupta6570 That’s largely based on oil prices and exports.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desart.[d] Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
- Percy Shelley, "Ozymandias", 1819
Their main strategy seems to be to build the world's biggest [insert random object or attraction].
And you know how those attractions work? Well the world's largest Ferris wheel featured hasn't turned in years (only did a couple days after opening actually) and no one will admit why. The small Palm Islands are sinking into the ocean because the foundations of a sand reef of course suck. The Large Palm was never finished nor were the World Islands because of the real estate crash and COVID. The Burj only recently even had sewer service--that is right a constant stream of sewage trucks drove up to it to empty the urine and feces out of it every day for many years. The Line has been scaled back to the point no one is probably going to build it...I can keep going on these Mega Projects and most of them are all in the same state of unfinished or failing.
They've even got Eiffel tower copies
The Mid-1900s Plains State Strategy.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
Tokyo is mighty cheap right now. Why bother going to Dubai for tourism?
Dubai is good service to be honest, good massages, good food since people from the whole world are there and it is affordable. For honeymoon it's a nice spot.
Because it's different from Tokyo.
As someone who has visited Dubai. Its not comparable. Dubai has done stuff not many countries have done, and a lot of the things they have can only be found in Dubai. Also, as an engineer, its pretty cool to see how far modern engineering has gotten there. You could argue history and all that but to me its just not that interesting, im more of a future person than a past person.
Depends what you’re into, a high culture or Dubai port-a-potty?
@@manhoosnick It's affordable because they use slave labour.
When the oil runs out, all the foreigners will leave and the majority of the natives will plunge into poverty.
They will still have income from shares in foreign companies, but that's not enough to save them.
1400 years ago, Arabs followed a Prophet telling them not to worship idols. 1400 years later those same desert arabs are competing in construting the tallest most flashiest idols. Just like that same Prophet predicted.
You have no clue what the prophet (peace be upon him) actually taught or predicted
@@fauxhound5061please enlighten us on what he said, I'm not being sarcastic I really want to know.
I can smell you all the way from here P*ki
@@SoulDuckling126 Google "provingislam Bedouin" and you'll see the prediction OP is talking about with sources
comparing a skyscraper to an ancient religious idol is just silly
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You should do a video on the economy of Massachusetts not only is it quite a bit larger than the economy of the UAE it has survived Dutch disease, de industrialization, resource depletion, it is a place that has re invented its economy time and time again going from whaling to textiles, telecommunications to education to heavy manufacturing from small arms to financial services to technology and now life sciences/biotech. It has been one of the world's most diverse and dynamic economies of the last couple centuries. It seems like every single decade we are on brink of collapse or leading the world in something and often times both.
sounds interesting
Very good suggestion.
There is no such thing as the discrete economy of Massachusetts. It is a part of the US economy. and people, goods, money and industry have moved seamlessly to, from and through the state to others. What does it mean for Massachusetts to have suffered "resource depletion" when it has had constant access to all the resources that might be needed from further afield in the US via road, rail and ship?
I would be interested in what seems to be contradictions in Taxachusettes. There does seem to be a lot of innovation and entrepreneurship despite too much taxation, regulation, and general “busy bodiness”. Look at how many people moved to New Hampshire to get out yet still work there. It’s all very interesting.
I'm in love with Massachusetts
And the neon when it's cold outside
IMHO the best course of action would have been a massive investment in utility scale solar, thus creating a buisness enviroment with really low energy costs, making it have a serious advantage for energy intensive industries, like metal production, chemical industry or server farms.
The arab gulf states are particulary suited for this, because the primary limitations for utility solar are the geography and that the investment is primarily upfront - and the Gulf states have basically the perfect geography (large, sun intensive deserts) and the capital from oil exports would easily be able to fund the upfront cost.
Exactly, with such abundant solar it's a no brainier.
@@hououinkyouma1458Needs major desalination investment too which could be an issue by way of oceanic desertification.
My understanding is that solar farms are actually quite dependent on water supply, both for cooling but even more importantly for cleaning the solar cells.
All the major energy industries also require major water usage, there is no industry that makes sense to develop in the middle of the desert.
@@crispian67this
as a youth from one of the countries mentioned in your vid i'd say my biggest fear isnt the inability to develop a balanced well-diversified economy (that also protects migrants' rights) which i def would like to see materialize but actually the collapse of the entire concept of nationhood and the durability of the current forms of authoritarianism with declining/abolished oil rentietrism. sure our countries and ruling monarchies predate oil by centuries, but this crafted social contract is so strong its fall will def come with repercussions, if not revised sensibly and gradually.
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I love how the trillions of dollars given to these regions with no other economic value are giving that money back hand over fist to countries that actually produce value.
Truly annoys me how arrogant these rich gulf Arabs are. They didn't innovate or achieve anything, they just happened to be sitting atop oil. Now they're squandering their wealth on projects they won't be able to maintain if they can even complete them.
"could be worse, they could be Venezuela."
*O O F*
Small note regarding 7:55 - It's misleading to say that natural gas produces less CO2 than traditional fuels without also mentioning the relative greenhouse effect of both gasses. Although it produces less CO2, methane - which is the majority component in natural gas - traps about 80 times more heat than traditional fuels and should not be seen as a viable alternative to crude oil.
Yeah but you don't release that methane into the atmosphere, you burn it, producing CO2. It's not misleading at all to say natural gas produces less CO2, even after accounting for methane leaks.
They're not just releasing the natural gas to the atmosphere. LNG is eventually combusted to convert into useable energy just like crude oil. It is a viable transition to crude oil in some cases, such as switching to nuclear or using it as a base load power producer.
IDK how much natural gas can replace oil products but transitioning coal to natural gas has been one of the best (but not perfect) way to reduce CO2 emissions so far. We shouldn't let the risk of potential leaks stop coal phase-out.
@@lajya01Debatable, as there are studies that say the whole chain for natural gas has so much loss such as energy usage for compression/cooling, transport and leakage(which is a fact, not just potential) that in the end modern coal power plants might be better.
I think this video is biased without mentioning there efforts to move to renewable energies what if the whole world is moving to renewable energies oil prices may drop but they will last much longer
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To be fair, the Gulf countries have to do whatever they can to diversify themselves from Oil to survive into the future.
But they don't really have many other options.
But they should focus on solar. Since it will supply their energy needs pretty well.
What they need fundamentally is human capital of their own not from abroad.They need to make their own people smarter and more competitive instead of being a spoiled brat.
They have plenty of time as their oil will last until the end of this century.
@@Gift-ll4nvbut demand won’t, peak demand will be in the 2030s and decline afterwards.
@@hououinkyouma1458solar energy is not sufficient for large scale energy provision
@@orlandpaul5810sure Paul. Something that has been said about coal and oil as well. I’d strongly recommend to educate yourself about how much energy could be produced from solar. The problem may be storage of energy, but this problem isn’t solved by leaning back discussing what all isn’t possible.
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Sc4ms.
In your dreams
Lets see how they deal with 50 degree C temperatures.
I’m pretty sure our ancestors for centuries lived in 50c?
@@Shahos_Animations I can see 40C but 50 is awfully severe. Even for just a day occasionally
The hottest day in the year is 43 degrees celcius
And they deal with it pretty well
@@ObamaChicken-c4i My sister has a house near Phoenix and it's been over 100 for ninety days and 110 plus for thirty days.
@@dougsheldon5560it's VERY OFTEN over 50C in Iraq. Same here in Australia in the desert in some areas.
A generation ago they were herding camels. You don't go from nomadic illiterate to world class at anything complex in such a time frame. And given that money corrupts, I doubt they're investing in schools, a culture of grit and hard work, and all the unsexy stuff that actually gets stuff done.
The regions will probably go back how it was before oil, when oil stop being able to provide for them.
They had civilisation 6000 years ago while ur ancestors were in their caves
@@DzSagace that was mostly what today is Iraq, Iran and Syria (Mesopotamia). Yemen was quite developed, but the desert nations were mostly inhabited by nomads.
If you got no money to sustain a largely non-productive population, the it will be difficult to keep the living standards.
@@casperghst42 Look up the Dilmun Civilization, bud.
@@Dsaes Modern Saudis and Emiratis couldn't survive a single day without modern luxuries and an army of serfs waiting on them.
Less funding for Islamic terrorists. Which is good.
The Economist magazine has good coverage of the involvement of UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia in the conflicts going on in their neighborhood and Northern Africa. When the oil runs out these countries will control militias and governments all around them. That will be a source of wealth and people to do the work. It is a rather grim future actually.
Naa they won’t have oil money to buy US weapons and bully their neighbours. Their soldiers are also very indisciplined and lack any motive or will to fight.
Not as bleak as India's future
@@mobashshirkareem976 You might be right. But then again UAE employs Colombian mercenaries. They might end up with a successful business model.
@@SathyaswamyS Nonsense. India will get it together. Smart people living in a cohesive democracy. They face many challenges but at least the future of their economy doesn’t rely on something people won’t be buying in 20 years.
@@dlewis8405 lol smart people and democracy hhhhhh
Better that they're throwing spaghetti at the wall than living in denial.
But it might help if they weren't throwing it out the window of a speeding Lambo.
They are actually doing both. Well they understand there is a future problem, but they are in denial about their actual planning ability and fundamental understanding of basic world economics.
Just because they like their coke in lines doesn't mean people want to live in a city built in a line.
Didn't you listen to the video? There is a very clear, much more favorable alternative. They could have a national wealth fund, but that's not what the cool guys do.
Porta potty business is booming in the gulf states.
🤢
Don any of these " Rich " Gulf nations take any refugees from the Middle East? In nit, why? They would be ideal people to boost their population as they would share the same language, religion and culture…
Despite the same name, the language is quite a bit different and the customs are even more different
They know better than that. Funny how they bring Indians and South East Asians to do hard work. Almost like they understand something that we don't.
There are many, actually. Depends on the nationality. Lot of Syrians and Lebanese. Some Iraqis as well. No Afghans though. Tons of Pakistanis (although not refugees). Very few Palestinians.
Yes they do. There's many many refugees here (in the Gulf) and many are not even treated as refugees as respect for them
Your EU governments is the one to blame for wanting to exploit cheap labour of immegrants while it backfires on them. Ya'll only took refugees to exploit them lol
The way climate change is going, the heat in the gulf is going to get so bad, I doubt _any_ human will be living there come next century.
I should wonder where the petro-monarchs will go to maintain their status and where their people will go thereafter.
Mansions in the US or europe
They'll just leave like they do every summer, and opt to stay abroad.
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To say nothing of the fact that: how many highly qualified, worldly and well-educated professionals from the best western universities want to raise their kids in a police state. Sure they’re not the only high tech labor these states are trying to attract, but certainly some of the best of it.
Or even to live in one themselves. You can train up the factory laborers, but engineering skills are fairly portable.
The rich love police states, they get protection from the poors. Lax policing has the rich having to interact more closely with the poor, which the rich hate.
Not to mention how much bullying they'll be subjected to, being from a "poor" family or an obvious minority.
There really is a stock video clip for absolutely everything these days isn't there?!
Lol, rich Saudis think appealing to other rich people, especially ones who don't live in the desert, will help them build good cars in the desert. If they want to make good value, they need to make useful, affordable, and maintainable cars that their own citizens would want. Make them useful especially in the desert, and make it largely unavailable internationally to make it seem more valuable abroad, itself a strategy that depends heavily on being a good car in general.
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This is why all the Baht Bahts want to come to Canada and Australia where they can apply for PR.
These cities are the regional economic heartbeats, and that's something you fail to take note of. The Middle East is a strategic place outside oil, and hosts all business and people from the unstable areas around and that's what they offer. Security, prosperity, and stability to those who don't get any.
That gives them the potential to be regional powers like Mexico, Indonesia, or Nigeria, but not global superpowers like the US or China.
Without oil, these regions will return to being backwaters, places you pass by to get to places that matter. Everything you mentioned they offer is subsidized, heavily, by petro money. When the oil is gone, so will the subsidies and so will any reason to want to conduct business in a burning desert.
Prior to oil “these” regions raised so many empires and provided so much for humanity, focusing on a narrow vs narrower spectrum of time isn’t that smart.
@@zeevkeane6280 Sure. And once upon a time Great Britain was master of a worldwide dominion, Viking raiders from Scandanavia terrorized Europe and the Mediterranean and nomadic horse-archers from Mongolia conquered one of the largest land empires in history.
Time moves on and the world changes. What made the modern Middle East signifigant was Oil and when that's gone their signifigance will vanish too.
There's no more SIlk Road, the Abbasid Caliphate is ancient history, and modern Persia is never going to be more than a regional nuisance.
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All the gulf countries are the worst places to live and work in, yet people flock to the region in hope of wealth and I will never understand why. The exploitation news should be a wake up call.
Well people are greedy no?
Everything fun is haram 🤣🤣🤧
They are still much better to live for especially white collar expats than many developing countries, even the blue collar workers that are paid low wages are still better paid than blue collar workers in most developing countries. I personally do not plan on staying in the middle East although I am a Pakistani, for tech and ML the US is better anyways, but my older brother's friend has his dad working as a medical specialist and it has gone very well for him, not to mention some gulf countries have good passports so you can travel to the west and east easily.
Its an easy way to get a 100% pay raise solely based on not having to pay taxes, even with same base pay.
Can i ask from where you get this idea about gulf countries ? is there a source saying gulf countries are the worst ? Because a fast search show that UAE is 17 in human development index above canada and USA , 26 in quality of life index and 19 best countries overall rank …. So do i believe a random internet comment or an official source ?
It's funny because when you talk to Saudi etc. business people they are notably humble and cautioned. It's decisions above them that mess up, of course.
Yeah they really need a better government. But it is bound to happen when the money runs out and from there they can rebuild naturally.
This is for most of the gulf region.
State-intervention and regulations make it way harder to start a business, and way too easy for business sectors to be monopolized.
Also, many big corporations are partially or totally owned by state entities, so the state puts the board of many of these corporations.
@@rami8896 Unfortunately, what usually happens when there's enough of an economic calamity to change the political-organization of a country...those who get in charge are not the most able who govern with an eye for the country/people and economic prosperity and stability...they tend to be the richest, and most self-interested and corrupt, and most militant.
I would like to point out that the Kafala system was based on a system set by the British in Bahrain to manage the inflow of workers from other GCC states at the time.
That doesnt change anything about the fact that it is still a system of modern day slavery.
It doesn't change the fact that the Saudis haven't done away with it.
They maybe did. But after that they went out of their way to abolish slavery with the abolishment movement. That didn't fit the arabs. And many other coutries. Even African coutries resited abolishing slavery
Do u see the brits using it today?
@@michaelhillaert692 Its the UK's responsibility to end it
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Begone spambot
4:36 very true. I moved to Dubai from Russia when the war started and since then my best salary was 1000$ a month, with cost of room I rent being 800$ (and that’s relatively cheap here). And then I was fired without a warning for literally no reason. Glad that my wife was still working and her salary as an art teacher was 700$ + about 1000$ commission.
Rich Gulf state function by extracting oil using western technology, to sell it to developed western and asian nations, and use that money to buy western and asian products or hire immigrants, from south Asia to do manual labor and treat them as slaves, or from Europe and North America to do skilled labor. Any way immigrants do all the work, the citizens are normally lazy and don't want to study or work much, the state pays for everything or ensure that jobs for citizens are well paid. All backed by oil, what do you think will happen when the oil runs out?
There is another reason not to put the money into souvereign wealth funds:
Once nobody is dependent on Arabian oil any longer, one minor human right violation is enough for western goverments to say we freeze all these assests as sanction. Non-western countries might outright nationalize these foreign investements, because they can.
To be objective , most of those videos about (oil money is running out ) underestimate what the gulf countries did, you think having oil is automatically means becoming a wealthy nation . But in reality there are plenty of countries with far more oil and gas reserves (Nigeria, Venezuela, Libya, Iraq ... ) and yet they fail to capitalize on it. either because of corruption or politics or something else.
The same way the gulf countries made the decisions with oil, they will continue on post oil era. it's a matter of mentality not just 'oil'. if you read history there is always a transition between nations in terms of power, first create a fair system for all citizens, then import education and technology, replicate then innovate (south Korea and Japan are two big examples). I think gulf nations are heading towards this goal.
@@Dsaes
They look to the GCC from a western glasses, like it’s the only viable way of living
@@Dsaesthe trouble is, you're not THAT FAR removed from the thinking of oil states that have failed badly. You're just spreading the money around more equally, that's all. The other "failed" states keep it st the top, and their output and reserves are often lower.
The Gulf countries that do not diversify their economies will fail, especially Saudi Arabia, which has a large population. Especially the Gulf countries’ reliance on America a lot is a very big mistake.
Brunei! This is probably the closest example to the “small forgotten country with comfortable citizens” you mentioned at 13:35.
While the monarchy lives in luxury and the country relies on oil and gas, it doesn’t seem like they are investing in mega projects like the gulf states. May be you can cover this in future videos.
I will simply say this in regards to Saudi Arabia and tourism: I have a rule of thumb which is I will never willingly visit a country where people are still publicly beheaded 😅
For a look at the long-term prosperity of the Gulf States, not to mention climate change is odd. They already experience days where you do not want to be outside for any length of time and this will only get worse.
"a hundred years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's heads off and that's exactly where you'll be in another hundred"
that's your awful dream but they would not be
@@adamsaciid4919 that is 100% what will happen
@@adamsaciid4919this IS LITERALLY a line from the movie Assyriana. About oil wealth, oil power struggles and how the American oil executives see the entire region.
Assyriana. Great movie
Luxurious prison
@@Dsaes Has anyone told you that you are doing an awful job defending your country's image. Like in a previous comment, you said Saudi Arabia is doomed to be poor and that's somehow good, and now you admit your country is a prison.
@@MichaelDavis-mk4me and why are you offended by his comments
@@adamsaciid4919 Because I'm pissed off someone is so bad at his job. If you are going to defend your country's image, do it well, or not at all.
Africa has endless opportunities for the future of gulf economies especially when it comes to mineral resources and agriculture...but the kafala systems has led to exploitation of Africans working there with many being tortured,rped or killed without justice.
Africa has opportunities on the west coast if you accept that those "nations" are mafia run city states masquerading as governments. But Africa is mostly a pit full risks.
It's MAINLY Bangladeshis and Pakistanis working there
Growing up in the 2000s, you had predictions that the gulf countries would fail soon.
Every year was the year the gulf states would fail. It is been going on for two decades.
By the broken clock rule, the gulf states would eventually fail somehow in the upcoming century, I guess?
Finally a realistic view of the oil countries. Too many people are too optimistic about their megaprojects, thinking that they'll save those economies
It's true that they don't have comparative advantage, but that's exactly what they are trying to build. In high end industries mentioned in video, comparative advantage mostly comes from history of production and workforce expertise.
The societies are consumption-focused societies, not production-focused societies. Hence, the drive for entrepreneurship isn’t there. That’s why some oil states like Norway and Texas haven’t collapsed - their citizens are raised to be producers. This allows markets to develop and thrive. But the large majority of petrostates do not have this core value - the example of Venezuela at the very end provides an excellent example of this.
I think the idea is they're trying to attract those type of people. Unfortunately, they may have missed the memo that the smartest people in the company arent the executives, it's the people who actually do the work. Engineers and scientists don't get to be "the idle rich", who are the ones buying what Dubai is selling.
You can start companies all day, but the west has whats called Strategic Industrial Knowledge, without it your company is nothing. Russia, Japan and Korea are some of the only non-western nations that have this kind of knowledge, China tries to steal it and reproduce it but as can be seen, has lots of catching up to do.
There is another concept called Brain Drain; where a country loses it's "SIK" through emigration or retire (or in Canada's case, actively destroying it), and wrongly thinks it can import it... from the places without it lol. So over time the experts disappear and are either not replaced, or replaced by people who don't know what they are doing.
What you haven't considered is the need for these states to protect themselves militarily from conquest by Iran and formerly Iraq. Nations with tiny populations are unable to staff adequate armed forces, so they're trying to boost their populations.
The Gulf states have a much larger population than Alaska, Norway, and the other countries that have sovereign wealth funds that have been successfully used to transfer petrowealth to sustainable long term income. Alaska has a population of 733,391 or so. Norway has a population 5,576,660. Just Saudi Arabia has a population of 37,519,656. The cost for pumping oil out of the ground in the Gulf states are low. But the welfare burden of the part of the population that depends on this production makes Saudi oil effectively more expensive then fracked oil produced in the USA. They are going to crash and collapse when the oil runs out, and there are no options available to them to prevent that.
nonsense , their citizen are 15 million, also who say they will run out oil
@@adamsaciid4919 The population of Saudia Arabia, Quatar, UAE, and Bahrain is something like 43 million. With some mix between citizens and non-citizens.
@@adamsaciid4919 And at some point the Saudi welfare state isn't going to have enough funds to placate the population, you will have a civil war, and oil production will collapse.
The gulf states could save themselves by attracting skilled workers from from abroad, instead their culture, politics, values and infrastructure attracts tacky rich non-workers.
Sir, you haven't spoken about the most crucial aspect. The climate change that's affecting these desert countries, causing massive outages and infrastructure problems, and how their cities are getting flooded spoiling all of this oil money.
Maybe the small states could survive with its small population, but i doubt that Saudi Arabia will do it. In the end, they want to be the protagonists of the world and that's really hard.
Beside making some people less annoyed by the fact that others are doing well, what is the purpose of this video?
Did/does China have an analogous vanity projects problem? E.g., a MagLev train from the airport to Shanghai central that lasts 10 minutes; lots of empty unprofitable high speed train lines; ghost cities/apartments; empty replicas of European cities; all using their one abundant resources: (formerly cheap) labour.
China will announce and plan huge projects, get the propaganda value, and then cancel them. They're well aware the worlds attention span is about 10 minutes, so they don't bother actually doing any of the expensive parts.
So what happened was they needed something to stop the GFC of 2008 taking them down. And turned to construction and roads and rail. But it was WAY too much for what they needed. Because it was based on making jobs, not on fulfilling realistic infrastructure needs. Some were good, many were junk quality, and a HUGE amount were entirely unneeded.
From $10K to $25k that's the minimum range of profit return every week I think it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family
I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k,I have invested on time and also with the right terms now.
This new format where you restate the chapters again in case we forget is much better
Dubai... when you're starting to get known as the country that rents influencers to sh!t on (as in the literal sense), it becomes more than just tacky.
With Lucid they are buying their way into auto manufacturing. They attempted to get Toyota and others to build stuff there but even after offering $1 billion they all said no because there were no near by suppliers and the work force has zero experience. Lucid basically can't say no and even if it does fail they are looking at it as the cost to training and starting to develop an industry. You got to start somewhere and somehow.
And lucid people are just sitting there going "good, we got this cash cow and hopefully this lasts until I retire in 30 years. We'll show them the ropes and let them screw it all up, so long as I get out with all my money, and it'd be nice if I could string this out to retirement or a good investment property portfolio at least".
Chinese products are underrated so was Japanese and Korean in the past. So no worries.
Japanese and Koreans had images to uphold though. Modern China just tries the same cheap business model again under a different name.
Well they sustainn incredibly well by being and tax heaven. That did wonders for Switzerland and Singapore. UAE is on that Track
At 0:10 seconds, for Riyadh there is an img from Dubai marina. You can see the sparkle tower visible there
12:42 Is that the Doofenshmirtz tower??
Doofenrtz evil incorporated
Yeah don't share bits of your Internet data across the entire Internet. Share 100% of it to a shady VPN provider in a different country. What could go wrong?
Sovereign fund is literally invented by gulf countries
Thank for including subtitles on your video. However you need a human to check them - the transcription software is making errors like "royal" instead of "oil." This is a problem when non-English speakers translate to their own language. I know it takes a lot of effort to make these videos but they're wasted if viewers can't understand them. I run a channel specifically for people who can't understand the audio and I review the transcript every time. (This is not a self-promo, just noting that I have the same experience)
Why not just save 50% of the oil money each year into a diversified portfolio of international stocks and bonds? If a person did this, they can retire after less than 20 years of working. A country can do the same.
Well, looks like they are not smart enough to figure this out. They rather build a five-star luxury hotels in the middle of the desert and hope to attract international tourists 😂
who says we are not doing this, in fact most of the comments here mention things that the GCC have done already, Chemical plants, Solar, Data Centers, Wealth Funds and so on.. billions also invested in universities, hospitals, research facilities and startups. these videos usually just show you what the author wants you to see. not the reality in the ground.
@@danielgareth4205yeah a random guy from the internet know more than countries who hire experts … here an idea you know there something called sovereign wealth fund , google it , and bring some tissues for your tears .
Kuwita have invested more than 50 years ago
@@danielgareth4205 lol you're the dumbest in here actually
They Re trying to make Saudi seem like a place people would want to visit. Yet nobody I have talked to (unless they want to visit everything) want to go there at all even after all the new things would be built
Dubai is basically Miami so If Miami can survive, Dubai Can - regarding the other things mentioned, what they are doing right now is just spending money to become important globally post oil but if all of that fails, as you pointed they can just use the sovereign wealth fund and low skilled labor to get by as is.
Miami is in the US, Dubai is in an Islamist dictatorship. You could can that freedom in the US is endangered but you cannot argue about freedom in the UAE.
@@user-uf4rx5ih3v have you been to Dubai? Dubai is the furthest thing from being Islamic lol and when you say freedom what does that mean exactly from an expat POV? cause Miami is a party town full of millionaires, tourists and low wage workers it has pretty much the same demographic as Dubai - the only major difference I would say it is a lot easier to get drugs in Miami vs Dubai, but Dubai is a million times safer than Miami
@@user-uf4rx5ih3vplease go out and touch some grass , will do wonders for you .
@@osamataha336 so funny seeing westerners call Dubai an "Islamic dictatorship" when it's known across the entire middle east for being full of Zionist anti-islamists
@@osamataha336 so someone can hold hands, kiss and cuddle with their partner in a public space and not being persecuted by the sharia police?
I think there are things the region actually has going for it. Solar power is an obvious one and they could export the electricity to surrounding areas. Another one is location, becoming the de-facto travel hub of the region does make a lot of sense as it's easy to get there from Europe, Africa and Asia, so focusing on industries that benefit from being a central location makes a lot of sense to me. Like a business / entertainment hub does kind of work, as corporate events could be done there and it's easy for lots of people to get to a central location.
Heavy industry though, what are they thinking.
They need to reinvest in other places that can make money instead of risking their money by trying to start things.
Like what Norway did
I have spend 20 years of my life in saudi arabia, the pride that you are talking about is very much real.
I like your analysis but I feel this one missed the mark. Lived in UAE for the last 10 years and the growth and development I've seen is unmatched to what Europe or US have experienced.
I think its hard to put the different gulf countries in the same basket since they have varying population sizes, as well as fairly different degrees of modernisation, education level and economic diversification.
In UAE for example, they have great ambition and pride, paired with what's been so far great leadership. They have been able to navigate what's a very volatile region, educate their population and create a world class infrastructure. A lot of it has been achieved thanks to many smart decisions, not just because they have oil money or luck.
Could the money of the government and related entities be used more effectively? Surely. Are government funded projects managed better in the 'first world countries'? I doubt.
At least here there is a long term vision and plan detailing what they want to achieve and what are some of the initiatives they will work on to do so. I'm yet to see the same from the Spanish, British or US government for example.
20-30y ago, ok came out about “pork oil”. Every petrified lobbyist and their mother lost their collective sh!t. The gulf states are pivoting to less petro dollars 😂
Well,
typical superficial western analysis, for typical western audiences.
You would be good Hollywood writer👌🏻
My main concern is how to survive all of these financial and political crisis, especially in light of the US political power scuffle. The government has really called things more difficult for its citizens, and we can't sit back and bear all the consequences of the bad governance.