Is America's Patriot air defense system really any good?
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- Опубликовано: 22 дек 2022
- On Wednesday, President Biden announced that America will be sending Ukraine its Patriot air defense system to help bolster the nation's resistance against the ongoing Russian invasion. The MIM-104 Patriot system is comprised of multiple assets but serves a singular purpose: identifying and intercepting inbound threats ranging from aircraft to both cruise and ballistic missiles.
The performance of the Patriot air defense system has been in question for decades... But just how capable is this system really?
Let's dive into this.
Big thanks to @habitual_linecrosser for helping out with this one! Make sure to check him out on both RUclips and TikTok!
/ habitual_linecrosser
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Further Reading:
S-400: www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-s-40...
Russia's Nebo-M Radar: www.sandboxx.us/blog/how-effe...
Citations:
Patriot: apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
Scud: missilethreat.csis.org/missil...
Patriot in Gulf War: www.nti.org/analysis/articles...
Gulf War: www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl....
Gulf War: www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...
-Gulf War: www.nti.org/analysis/articles...
-CSIS: www.csis.org/analysis/patriot...
-NTI Report: www.nti.org/analysis/articles...
-Candiloro quote: theaviationgeekclub.com/blue-...
-PAC-2: www.army-technology.com/proje...
-PAC-3: www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/...
-NATO Fact Sheet: www.nato.int/nato_static_fl20...
-Patriot: missilethreat.csis.org/system...
NY Times: www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/us...
-MPQ-53: missiledefenseadvocacy.org/de...
-Range: www.reuters.com/world/europe/....
Range: www.radartutorial.eu/19.karte...
-More Radar: www.radartutorial.eu/19.karte...
-Ghost Eye: www.raytheonmissilesanddefens...
Your fact driven reporting is a huge breath of fresh air in the defense space. Thank you.
A shame he didnt't mention the Houtis/Iran attack on Saudi Aramco Abqaïq and Khurais oil raffineries, in 2019.
The saudis said that 17 drones (certainly shahed type, like in Ukraine) and 7 cruise missiles were used and that none was intercepted.
Observers on the ground said that the patriot system would fire some missiles, but at random, no one going near any target.
Not very reassuring!
Hope they have add capabilities for light drone type targets since.
ruclips.net/video/GQAp_nXKrXw/видео.html
Inhale all the copium you wish, kid... but this was a very speculative piece devoid of any hard data to support any of its' hyperbolic, unsubstantiated claims.
@@TheSupriest Patriot requires human input to launch missiles, and knowing how the Saudi ground forces are... I really doubt the system was used to the best of its ability.
What I think is more interesting is the french missles like the aster 15(30km range) and 30(150-300km), mistrael, croatel missles(15km range). Mixed with the german mantis aa/ciwis system.
@@TheSupriest considering how they work in other countries and how they've preformed the most likely thing is the Saudis weren't using them properly
One thing we do know is the S-300, S-400, and S-500 can’t shoot down the Kinzhal, because Putin has told us so himself. The Ukrainians have told us that even with inexperienced operators they can routinely shoot down Kinzhals. So yes the Patriot is demonstrably better than any Russian SAMs.
Wait, are you telling me that Patriot can shoot down russia's best tactical nuke launch vehicle at an almost perfect rate?
@@bungalowjuice7225yes as multiple Kinzels have been launched and shot down.
You realize the US generals have already admitted that even WE can't shoot down hypersonic missiles, and that's with US operators. Ukraine has to use the Patriot system on "autopilot mode," which is less efficient...Ukraine hasn't actually shot down a single one
@@amadabdellatif1 What the hell are you taking about of course we can shoot down hypersonic ballistic missiles. They have been doing it since WW2.
These fictitious hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruse missiles that can’t be shot down don’t exist despite claims to the contrary by Russia and China because of the actual physics involved. The hypersonic ballistic missiles that do exist can be shot down and we have been capable of shooting them down for decades.
How many hypersonic Kinzhal ballistic missiles have the Ukrainians already shoot down?
The US anti-missile defense has three layers for the boost phase, the glide phase, and the terminal phase. US Agis class warships and land based facilities have the SAM-3 missiles designed to shoot down ICBMs in their boost and terminal phase. THAD is designed to shoot down ICBMs in their glide phase. Finally Patriot missiles are designed to shoot down missiles in their terminal phase. While none of them can claim near a 100% kill rate the Patriot missile batteries in Ukraine are shooting down Russian Kinzhals at an over 95% rate.
@@amadabdellatif1 The US government has confirmed the Ukrainians have shot down numerous Kinzhals. It is very easy with 24/7 AWACS and satellite coverage of the whole country.
I have nothing negative to say about my experience with the Patriot Missile System during Operation Desert Shield / Desert Storm. In fact, it protected me and my unit from the primary viable threat we encountered. I served at King Abdul Aziz Air Base, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia during Operation Desert Shield / Desert Storm and there was a Patriot battery out of Ft. Bliss, Tx. tasked with the defense of our sector. Of the 100+ Scud missiles launched toward the base, only one struck within the inner perimeter where flight operations were conducted. That missile was hit and partially destroyed by a Patriot missile: however, the warhead remained intact and detonated about 300 meters from our location. There were several Scuds that struck outside of the perimeter and I learned from the army operators that the system determined the trajectory of every Scud and intercepted only those who’s flight path would strike within a pre-determined area. The only incident were the Patriot system didn’t operate appropriately was when a Scud struck the warehouse where an army unit of the Pennsylvania National Guard was temporarily housed.
Hey
Although i was very young during the Gulf-War, i was in Haifa, Israel.
I remember a Scud landing on a mall, about 8 miles from me, the Patriot was not effective at all, it blew up the body of the missile and changed a bit its course, but hardly no interception, in fact, the Patriot did more damage than protection to the cities.
@@osher87
It is unlikely that Israel had all their airspace at that point protected with the Patriot system.
The US on the other hand would have had complete coverage of its military positions with the system. The reason for this is that those military positions would have been much smaller than the airspace of Israel or even a populated area in Israel that would have had some sort of coverage.
Even today the system is not used on a large scale on its own.
@@mcs699 I'm talking about 1991, not now.
And the main comment is talking about Patriot interception, which at most was 10% at that time.
@@bighands69 Hey, it is very possible if the US and Germany were like 3-4 batteries on different location, Israel is a small and thin country, no more than 100km wide and 400km in length, Patriot battery at the 1991 could cover 1/3 of Israel and 4-6 batteries can overlap each other and provide defense.
I didn't understand what you mean, that only logic, the Scuds were broken at the entry phase meaning the warhead was separated from the body and the Patriot could not take out the warhead, so most o the times the Patriot "Intercepted" missile pieces falling.
Another thing to point out is that the warheads were not always explode if it had any explosive or even concrete material.
Is it so that patriot fires 2 missiles at each target, to make sure it will be neutralized? Saw that was the case last year in UAE when airbase was under attack from 2 ballistic missiles from Yemen. Cuz it seems VERY expensive if that's the normal way, considering patriot missiles cost 3-5$ each lol. Now if it's only rarely to be used that would be ok, but like in Ukraine if it daily has to fire that'd become a very expensive operation..
The "Passive" in Passive Electronically Scanned Array is a different use of the word, not related to Passive Detection Systems that only receive signals. A PESA still emits EM energy like any other radar. The passivity refers to the way the multiple antenna elements in the array are wholly dependent on a single transmitter, unlike the more capable AESA (like the AN/MPQ-65A) where each one has its own transmitter, allowing the use of multiple beams simultaneously.
You can get "multibeam" with a PESA array as long as you have several receivers in different locations (phases)
Per the Army's job listings, a Patriot Missile Repair engineer has 53 weeks in technical school. Plus their 10 weeks of basic. I think the reason that we're starting to see the Patriot system getting shipped over is the first people are completing their rapid training. Getting a years worth of work done in 8-9 months is doable.
It seems that US intel has been ahead of the game. Figuring out what Vladimir might do based on past actions hasn't been exceptionally difficult. It's obvious by now that Vladimir is still unaware of his limitations at managing his military. It may actually be in the interests of the West that he stays in the job at least until things are more in the favour of the Ukraine. There was a general realisation in the middle of WWII that a coup that took out Hitler and replaced him with any of a number of competent German military leaders ..... was not a really good idea. So, has the US been training people? It seems likely. There has also been an assessment that US involvement in the Ukraine was not going to have the disadvantages they faced in Vietnam or Afghanistan. So far, that seems true. Keeping quiet about US capabilities was a good idea. Drones, manpads, very accurate firepower and accurate intelligence? To name a few. As for Patriot missiles, any assessment based on performance decades ago is foolish. We only know what they care to tell us.
@@cmw9876 Having multiple AWACS cruising just out of reach of retaliatory fire is certainly an aid. And all those satellites.
@@cmw9876 wishful, magical thinking... US intelligence has been an utter failure in Ukraine. They can't even keep their phone lines safe so you get Nuland on tape confessing to the whole scam.
A missile repair engineer sounds pretty hardcore. Surely the other jobs of preparing and operating the system could be taught faster. Not to mention the pressure of an ongoing war.
@@KKH808 The key take away is that, the most advanced stuff has a LONG lead time. 2023 Has the potential of being a year with a lot of more modern tech being used in Ukraine.
Not that drones aren't modern. But in terms of armor, most of the stuff getting used and abused is 1960-90's era with some light to moderate upgrades. But not top of the line upgrades. The exceptions seem to be the IFV/Support vehicles that are on modern optics. That said, very few active defense systems have been spotted.
The fact that firearms optics aren't an absolute regularity for all troops says something about tech. We're witnessing mostly cold war era tech vs cold war era tech. The modern stuff is a game changer, like the HIMARS.
I can honestly say that discovering your channel, Alex, and the means in which you don't sensationalize and are common sense and research based in your reporting, has been one of the best things on the internet for me in 2022. Quality work, and I can tell you love it.
Russia destroyed it within 10 minutes of operating in Ukraine, like John Kirby said on TV, it doesn't work against Russia missiles or fighters, all your information are worthless and false. 3 Patriot Pac3 batteries systems have been destroyed in Ukraine in March and they couldn't shoot down any fighter or any missile, problem is the range of the missiles is like 99 Miles and range of radar signal like 170 Miles or less, now let me tell you this Russia fighter jets have radars of 500+km minimum, they detect Patriot systems without entering in the kill zone of Patriot defense and they destroy the Patriot systems with very high speed missiles. 100% worthless against Russia. Why would a Russia fighter enter a kill zone of 99 miles, it detects patriots radars locations easily.
You
Tracking 100 targets while guiding interceptors to up to 9 of them is breathtaking.
Not when each missile costs 2 mio. 😂
They should only use them for incoming fighter jets.
Not really, it's more of an average for sams these days
@@leedex That’s the point of them being sent, it’s not meant to be used against drones you people just keep assuming that. It’s also meant to intercept missiles which are just as expensive and sometimes significantly more expensive than the interceptor and you have to account for damage prevented to infrastructure too. The price has nothing to do with appreciating the capabilities.
@@leedex That’s not how cost works. As long as the cost of the interceptor missile is less than the cost of the damages the incoming target would have caused (which it almost always is, Patriots only protect important things), then you have a positive cost/benefit situation. Also, even if it’s negative, war is not economics. Dollar values don’t represent strategic importance. And even beyond that, the US military is so well funded that it can afford to make many actual negative cost exchanges with no consequence.
Someone doesn't know what an S-300 can do...
Comparing systems against each other by cost is wrong. Instead of saying a 3 million dollar missile should not be shooting at a 50,000 dollar drone, you have to look at the cost of a non-intercept - like the cost of a power plant or hospital. Spending a 3 million dollar missile to save a 200 million dollar hospital is the correct choice. Not to mention the value of lives saved.
Well said
It is the correct choice, but that doesn’t make it a sustainable one. Still, against cruise and ballistic missiles the Patriot is very good
The problem is that a low cost system could have a very high volume used. So that means there would be sixty $50000 cheap drones for every $3 million missile. That is how the mathematics works.
There are cheaper and more effective ways of dealing with large volume cheap drones. A flak system such as a WW2 or cold war system could be used or the modern computer guided C-Ram system.
While I agree eventually you run out of missiles and money to do that as the enemy sends cheap $25,000 drones to soak up your $4,000,000 PAC-3.
The answer is likely to be the canon. The Rheinmetall SkyNex can fire precision airbust AHEAD ammunition out to aerial targets at 3.5km and ground targets to 5km. It can handle swarming drones, cruise missiles, a proportion of MLRS type missiles.
-35mm is likely not enough. The US Navy has the 57mm Boffors Mk 110 that can fire MAD-FIRES guided projectiles at 220 RPM to hit incoming supersonic missiles or swarming boats. It has a muzzle velocity of 1200m/sec and can reach 5km in 5 seconds. Obviously it can switch to basic air burst and proximity fused ammunition.
-There is also the 76.2mm Oto Malera gun which can fired guided projectiles (DART and Vulcano 76.2) I suspect to 10km.
True, there are assets that must be protected whatever the cost.
Patriot gets a bad rap from early marks. The clock drift problem was an easy fix - but media really slammed the system early days
I just saw your comment about the clock issue just after I posted my comment about it. I was over there during Desert Storm and remember the human error screw-up that did not properly set a maximum time limit before needed to reset the computer system to clear out the error. I wonder how much more effective the missile system would have been had they followed a reset time interval that would have kept the missile on target.
Media are the enemy of the US so it makes sense that they would. They absolutely love damaging national security even if money wasnt involved
Saudi Arabia 2018 missile attacks and 2019 drone attacks. Very recent and equally embarrassing, considering that these events involved the PAC-2GEM+ upgrade.
Sounds like the M16. Yes, the original version from 1965 had problems caused by utterly stupid mistakes, but those were fixed by 1968, and yet 50+ years later boomer fudds will still not shut up about it.
@@koskok2965 I am currently in Saudi, like 90% of the time any hostle aircraft is taken down.
This system has saved my life multiple times and dosen't deserve the bad rep it gets imo.
6:30 in other air defense systems, such as the Navy’s Terrier system, this launch before lock is called Launch on Search or LOS so that the missile has the time to maneuver to engage the target from a preferred position such as from above.
Did you work on Terrier? I was an FC on Tartar and I remember seeing that Terrier ram air missile every day at the school. That thing was impressive.
@@antonleimbach648 no but I had a friends in Combat Systems and I used to geek out with them in missile plot.
How is that different from generic Track-via-missile guidance?
@@contagioushavoc5794 mid-course and terminal guidance is uploaded to the missile after launch.
I remember the Gulf War reporting, and this is the first I'm hearing of the Patriot's effectiveness. Thanks Alex.
It shot down a hypersonic a few weeks ago
Fake news idiot the same happen with Saudi Arabia patriot system they all fail to intercept a single ballistic missile from hamas but they repeated that they intercept all of them fake news and its obvious
@@user-yr9ct6wc8c are you trying to say Russian doesn’t make high-tech military equipment out of concrete ?
@@user-yr9ct6wc8c 💯% interception rate 😂😂😂😂😂🖕
Thank you for clearing the air of too many both positive and negative, simplistic reactions to the Patriot systems. I now have a much better understanding of the overall capabilities of it.
I remember the rap this system got when I was fighting is Desert Storm. What a lot of people don’t know is that human error played a big part is the low performance of the missile. A glitch was discovered in the system with the way binary system divides numbers and this introduced a VERY small error every time calculations where made which was thousands of times a second. With the speeds the missiles would approach each other at, there was almost no room for errors before they would miss each other. The temporary fix was to reset the computer system after so many hours of operations. Unfortunately, the notice that went out to the soldiers did not specify what the maximum run time of the system was to be set at. Unfortunately this mistake most certainly lead to one of the highest casualty incidents of the conflict for the US. It is ironic though, that even with this one event our losses during Desert Storm where less than had we been at peace time back in the states for the holidays. If only we could be so fortunate during all of our conflicts.
It is a problem from 30 years ago.
That problem luckily has been solved for years now.
ترجمه
And always will unless you want the AI errors to replace them.
For some reason, the SAUDI ARABIA 2019 results look more 1991 than 2003.
IMO ?? The only results that matter are those that come on GAME DAY.
What's your point, Ukrainians know how to deal with this, with a few days of training, but Americans didn't know and failed hard in the past? Why are people trying to make everything American great in the eyes of the world. We had a chance to see its effectiveness as well as other American weapons and it turned out people who claimed American weapons it's a paper tiger, were right.
Wow man I am impressed you really did your homework. I'll be honest I had no idea how much of that info was public but this is a clear comprehensive look
Yeah, and these information's are publics. We don't know the other half of the story as which is classified. Great news at least.
For the "passive" radar, it's not that it never goes active. It's just that if there is something flying around with its own radar on, you can pick up the airplane's own radar emissions, and send a missile in that direction. "Radio direction finding" to detect and find the other guy's radar dates back to at least WWII. Doing it in software with a modern phased array antenna is just a lot quicker, fancier, etc. It can probably detect things like "this is probably the radar on an F-15" vs "this is probably the radar on a Mig" based on the exact frequencies and patterns being emitted, so in some cases the passive radar mode can be even better than active radar, because you get the other guy to give away more information while he is looking for you. It's especially useful if, for example there is an AWACS flying around giving you auxiliary data. That way you can know if there are "known unknowns" things flying around that you need to go active to track and shoot.
Do you know just how bad direction-only data is for calculating the intercept trajectory of a SAM? Because that's the only data you'll get about the target from its emissions. Everything else will have to be estimated through the use of Kalman filters or other state estimators. Especially for a maneuvering target, the trajectory followed by the missile will be far from optimal.
Alex your work is so informative and interesting. Exceptionally researched and thoughtfully presented. Keep it up.
Again, another solid and thorough explanation of kit. I’m sure they will make best use of what they are given. And if the PAC-3 was that bad, it wouldn’t be used in such vital locations in the pacific. Keep the videos coming man. I would love to see a video on SM-3 interceptors in the future.
Fascinating - great video. I had no idea there were 3 variants of the interceptor itself.
Good video. I was watching another "average" youtube channel about this same topic when your video came out, but yours was a lot better!
Once again Alex an excellent video, with so much good info, in unbiased technically dummed down for us novice viewers! I watch more of your vids than any others!!
I’ve seen a patriot on patriot shoot. Watching the pat launch at night was insanely cool. I felt like a little kid with a really big bottle rocket.
As always, love your analysis broski-roeski. You deliver great information at the perfect pace. Keep it up.
Alex, I have been waiting for this video! Thanks!
In Dan Hampton's autobiography, he details a strange event regarding the patriot. About when he entered the landing pattern after completing his first combat mission, the patriot battery at the base (which was operating on AUTO mode) opened fire on a KC-135. Thankfully, the missile went stupid and no one was hurt
You reminded me of a random story. The B-52 had a radar guided rear gun that got targeted by a Wilf Weasel and hit by a HARM. THE B-52 was renamed In HARM'S Way. Hahhaa.
@@williamwchuang I’ve heard about that story. Thank goodness that model of B-52 has the gunner in the front
You don't typically need 360° coverage; you can usually expect the Bad Guys to come from one basic direction, ± 90° or less. Besides, even if one array can only offer, say, 90° coverage, you can always use more than one array, so long as they're using slightly different frequencies. They're networked, so multiple arrays could provide a composite coverage area up to 360° and could direct missiles any direction needed. AEGIS works similarly, but much larger in scale.
Like the enemy won't try to flank your system!
Suggest you read SUN TUZ!
@@jessemills3845 ok army chair general
@@kameronjones7139 it seems like all of the pro western military RUclips channel are discussing the same thing with the same exact narrative which is odd. The thing that they don't discuss is the patriot system being overwhelmed by the Iran ballistic missile in Iraq in 2021. The Iran ballistic missile rained down on US military bases in Iraq. There's video footage of it that was released by the US government.
How stupid would the enemy have to be to know about this weakness and not do everything in their power to exploit it? And the fact that this information is out here on youtube in this video means you can basically guarantee any adversary the patriot will face will know it. You are wrong and this is a huge weakness in this system and they are right to be trying to fix it
Both Iranian drones and ballistics have overwhelmed the Patriots system. Iran ballistic missile overwhelmed the Patriots system in Iraq 2021 as it rained down on the US military bases. 2020, Iran moped drones overwhelmed the Patriots system in 2020 in Saudi Arabia.
I was a 24T/14E in the ‘90s. I appreciate your honest and in-depth video.
Great video, some really good points and information here.
I love all the comments saying “oh well Ukraine should just adopt short range air defences like C-RAM or Mantis instead of big expensive SAMs like NASAMS or Patriot”…
Main problem with that: it is VERY easy to overwhelm a force reliant on short range air defences, with coordinated multidirectional attacks… because they’re, you know… short range! A LAYERED air defence system is all important in a conflict like this, relying on one system or another would be a great way to lose VERY quickly!
Russia has pretty clearly overstated the capabilities of every part of their military!
How does Russia come in this?
@@mungucitimothy3530 did you watch the video? Not only did he compare the S400 and the patriot, but he talked precisely about how Governments talk up or downplay their weapons systems…and they are being sent to Ukraine who I think has been having a small issue with Russia as of recently but maybe I’m wrong.
@@mungucitimothy3530 Because pro-Russian trolls love to cast doubt on the real-life capabilities of US weapons systems by comparing them to the claimed capabilities of Russian systems.
Wow. Great informative video! Keep up the objective and lucid reporting. 👍
Love your videos! Can't wait to see the next one. Keep up the good work.
The patriot missile defence system is constantly being updated and improved, for my money it's the finest system of it's type in current use.
This is such a fine channel, thank-you for all the good work and information.
LTAMDS radar will make it more potent.
When I was at White Sands Missle Range as part of the Navy contingent in 1988 the Patriot was quite squarely in the devlopmental stage. The fact that it was deployed merely 2 years later and had a good modicum of success was amazing to me. I have faith in our Military Industrial Complex to make things happen when it is critical to do so.
Your faith is grossly naive, in my view.
I was with the deployment to giessen in January 85. I was in fire direction squad as a tda
To counter slow moving cheap drones Ukraine needs systems like the C-RAM and AA guns, not a system that fires missiles each worth millions of dollars
Precisely.
That ground based CIWS would do a great job around critical infrastructure, power stations etc
But it could be good to defend Kyiv or Kharkiv against the occasional Iskander, Kh-55 or Kalibr strike. It's quite important for morale to keep a capital comparatively safe, and Kyiv is particularily vulnerable to interruptions in electricity and water grids, simply due to its size. Cheap drones are not as big a threat for Kyiv, since there a plenty of defense rings around it than can reliably deal with those. If i remember correctly, for Kyiv itself the drones were only really successful in the first few weeks, before the Ukrainians adapted their defenses.
I made this comment about 3 months ago and I was absolutely attacked at how that would never work in Ukraine because of logistics, training and engineering team needs.
Doesn't matter how much they cost when they aren't paying for them.
Sandboxx your videos saved youtube for me. Keep up the good work 👍💪🇺🇸
Great videos as always. Thank you. You should do one on the MEADS system
Great analysis!
Regarding the early bad-news about the Patriot system, it might be beneficial early in the life-cycle to low-ball the performance and features of an expensive weapons system like this. If one's enemies underestimate a weapons system, they not only won't try urgently to build a better one, but they also won't treat it with the respect it deserves as a legitimate threat on the battlefield.
Under-selling, and then over-delivering routinely makes for successful histories for a given technology. And the corollary of this, over-selling and under-delivering, will probably eventually result in a lack of success. Upstream of actual delivery, this usually manifests as a constant battle between the marketing/product-management department and the engineering/test department.
One old adage applies: "If you claim to have a superior system that is un-matched, and exaggerate its capabilities, your enemy might actually take you seriously, spend a lot of money, and develop one that is significantly beyond your system's actual capabilities. And of course, there is a strategic corollary, to match. You might send your enemy broke when they try to achieve a competing technology that you know is very costly, difficult, and/or impossible.
How do you not have 1M subs? Most accurate, unbiased and entertaining reporting I've seen so far.
He is another nerd
Great fact-based video. I'm sure these take a long time to put together. Thanks!
Another great video Alex. I like how you "winged" it.
Haven't even watched the video yet, and I know it is going to be a banger. Keep up the amazing content! Is there any chance you could make a story covering what is known the RQ-170 or similar reconnaissance drones? Maybe a video on the current and future state of drone warfare? I find this topics super interesting, and your journalism skills are well matched to cover it, I think.
Even during the Gulf War itself, it was blindingly obvious that when engaging Scuds, Patriot was being forced into a role it was not really intended for--like issuing a sniper a rack-grade M16. It was far better than nothing, AND all that was available, but not optimum at the time.
Regarding training and deployment to Ukraine, there's also the possibility that Ukranian troops may have been quietly training on Patriot for some time now, in anticipation of this handover. Hopefully, this is the case.
Correct. the PAC1 was never designed to shoot down ICBM's in terminal phase. There was a software update that gave the possibility to the PAC-1 but it was rolled out with little testing. It was all we had and better then nothing.
@@KH-ye6qg To hear the media tell it, all the American systems were cheap, shoddy & unreliable, and were going to result in mountains of American dead.🤬
Good video and appreciate your non bias approach
Awesome video Alex. Much appreciated! 🍻
Not gonna lie, I want to see a Patriot make mincemeat of a MiG-31...
The Patriot system is for sensitive and strategic defense. It's cost matters little on certain targets.
Such as protecting the capital of a nation.
It would be nice if U.S. took that attitude toward some education costs.
@@veramae4098 The progressives lost years ago, the progressive party does not support education as a main policy and neither do the Democrats although both list education as an issue. Education scores are down since 2020 but American politicians are not keen to lead the world in education. Only children with high earning parents are rewarded with exceptional educational opportunities. I wish it were different.
Much more complicated than what you wrote, sorry.
Only in case of a ballistic missile you can tell the target, What about drones and cruise missiles? How would you know if it targets what you suppose to defend (and fire on it)?
Are civilians sensitive assets? What is a strategic asset a factory or an airport?
An air defense system intercept cost is very high you can't just say "It's cost matters little on certain targets" because you don't know what are the targets!
@@yaronk1069 The targets are the ones you want to defend like a nuclear plants, civilian infrastructure or populations. The problem is they cost 4 million dollars a missile but for certain targets it doesn't matter.
Yes two thumbs up ! I love your air power info. I was hearing at the end of this show with my head set on and I thought someone was behind me blowing there nose ! I thought it was my kid! Great surround sound mix.......
Terrific summary! Thanks!
The answer is clear now: Patriot kicks arses
If they can protect K'yiv, that will be a huge morale boost. They need triple 'ot buckshot too. 😉🤠
They need one of these each in Kharkiv, Kherson, and Odessa, in addition to protecting K'yiv.
I love how you are honest not knowing how non emitting detection works, how does it bounce off object without emitting
Merry Christmas sir..🇵🇭
Great analysis!
Ukraine is a perfect test field for many systems. The S-300 / S-400 seem not capable to take out HIMARS rockets. It may even break their economics to try it.
The PATROIT - for me - is more symbolic (like You said).
I hope this AND the 45bn dollar budget for 2023 from the US will make Def.Sec. Austin put pressure on Europe to step up their aid too.
What Ukraine urgently needs is tanks and artillery. My chancelor Scholz still blocks sending tanks and it needs loud and official critics and pressure (from US too) to get him moving - he's just a corrupt leader, hoping to get back to good old trade with russia.
S-400 using the 9M96 or 9M96E2 interceptor will likely hit a HIMARS launched GMLRS missile. In order for it do do so it must be placed within GMLRS range. The S-400 is a big and clunky system that itself will become a target. The SHORAD missile that supposedly could do this job Pantsir CLOS guidance doesn't seem up to it and the current version can only handle 4 targets. There are new versions planned. A S-400 close enough to intercept GMLRS missiles itself will become a target of the GMLRS missiles and loose.
Schulz and merkel were the most corrupt pieces of trash, awful leaders Ive ever seen, I dont understand do you guys actually elect your leaders? Or were they better when they got elected then became garbage when they got comfortable? I dont understand what the hell you guys are doing
@@cameronspence4977 It's Scholz, not Schulz.
Imagine a country after decades of florishing economy built on cheap oil and gas from russia. Imagine how sick and lazy it has become and then remember that politicians are only a mirror of their people.
@@williamzk9083 Thx! I will read more about it thanks to Your comment and assumptions.
No matter what the final outcome of the war is, the market for Russian gas and some of its oil is kaput.
I suspect that Ukrainian personnel have had several months of training on the system including a testing phase.
This move by the US was not a knee jerk reaction and probably has a strategic angle to it.
exactly.
Thanks for giving us a realistic briefing on the actually capabilities of this missile defense system.
Sheeesh. Man could you write my essays for me? and wonderful and accurate reporting as always.
Awesome video sir! Excellent information/content. It will be interesting to see how the system performs for Ukraine and will also be fun to see the orcs lob attacks at it. I'm hoping like all of us supporting Ukraine, that it is 100% successful. I wonder if there has been any work behind the scenes to utilize integrating the S300/S400 systems into the Patriot system so they can allow Ukraine to use the Patriot's obviously better radar/control network to improve S300/S400 performance? Sorry, just thinking outside the box a little. I know Ukraine has had success with HARM missiles on Mig-29s, so who knows what their engineers and our engineers can come up with after they bang their heads together on the problem! Keep up the great videos!
The US could develop a radar control system that could be integrated with the S300 and S400 but why bother with that when the US could just use its own system. The S300 and S400 are not even in the same league as the Patriot system.
@@bighands69 I was just thinking since the Ukrainians already have S300s, maybe integrating with the Patriot radar might make them more effective. Was mainly just curious.
Thats extremely unrealistic and Ive been seeing this trend with you believe-all-ukraine-ers who understand 0% about military technology asking ridiculous things like this, saying oh send them F16s, send them abrams tanks etc. and its stupid. Yes they absolutely could do it, no they absolutely will not do it. Ukraine will be lucky to even come out of this conflict with the patriot not being destroyed, hopefully it is not but the US has now taken a bigger risk than it is worth for the 1st time in this conflict. I dont think sending it was a good idea, they need more less expensive, more agile and mobile defenses, not one giant, immobile basket of eggs that the russians can find easily and possibly destroy and damage US deterrence and prestige in the process, something they have badly needed
@@ek2156 You probably could, but it would take a lot more legwork than a HARM. With HARMs the aircraft doesn’t really need to “talk” to the missile that much, since it doesn’t need to receive any information from the aircraft. Making it so the S300 could use Patriot radar returns to guide its own missiles, or vice versa, would be harder, since you need to sort of translate the Patriot’s language to the S300’s language, and neither systems are built to be able to do that. But at the same time, the US is the IT capital of the world, so if anyone can do it, it’s them.
@@ek2156 The important question is whether Ukraine has domestic production capacity for S-300 missiles. If not, they'll run out of munitions sooner or later, so it would make more sense to supply entire systems, or S-300 compatible missiles.
Lazer AA systems can't come fast enough. Once we have cheap air defense I'm not sure any air force with stealth will be worth having
That’s not how that works. Are you one of those Reformers?
You can’t use a goddamn laser to shoot down an aircraft from tens of miles away, nor the Hundred miles that most Next Gen Air to Ground missiles will be launched from. Laser systems are good for helicopters and cruise missiles.
Those laser systems will be countered likely. Let's say one system cost $50M, think it's gonna stop 100 drones targeting it at once?
@@afishl1 If I was in charge of defending an objective I’d use a few laser based systems backed up by a bunch of lower cost CIWS systems like the C-RAM and Longer Ranges SAM systems to take out anything at linger ranges.
Wow that's what's up, I was under the impression that sandbox was clickbait, but I was absolutely wrong, way way wrong and I apologize for that! Fantastic source of news really detailed really researched, and very well put together.
S-400 is an upper-tier system, like THAAD and Iron Dome. You mean the S-300.
Alex, thanks for keeping us in the loop with well informed, data-backed reporting. I'm on the fence about sending a single Patriot battery to Ukraine; I'm waiting on NATO/US to ramp up Ukraine's defense by putting assets directly into play: Draken, F-18, maybe Rafale, along with some airborne recon assets to start rolling back Russia's air defenses to allow Ukraine air assets to start attacking Russia's missile sites and artillery that keep turning Ukraine cities/towns into rubble.
I was thinking the same thing. If theyre going to send patriot they need to be at least 2 or 3 which is massively expensive
The Italians are sending a SAMP/T battery.
If you want to risk nuclear war with Russia, declare a on behalf of your country. Others don't want to be drawn into such a thing
Same thing is happening with the F35….many people focused solely on the acquisition boondoggle and are blind to the fact that it’s an absolute monster of a plane that everyone wants to buy. Best jet in the world by leaps and bounds.
الخونة ليسوا أخوة
Really good info THANKS!
This was very long and very detailed. I love it.
Everything you need to know about the S-400. Ukraine took some 50 year old reconnaissance drones, put a warhead on them, and managed to hit an airbase, 600km deep in Russian territory, that houses some of their strategic bombers not once but twice. And keep in mind that these drones are not small like the Shaheds, that are hard to detect on radar. The Tu-141 is about the size of cruise missile
The Russians might have stopped watching for contacts leaving Ukraine after shooting down a few of their own aircraft.
The Ukrainians manage to shoot stuff down with Russian SAMs so they clearly are not useless.
Good to see the Patriot absolutely wasting Russian Kinzals in Ukraine. The initial Russian bravado has gone deafeningly silent as their wonder weapons have been exposed!
Well presented. Liked and shared.
Maybe in the last year, the USA has already been training the Ukrainian army to deploy and maintain the Patriot Missile system. It's rumored that the Ukrainian's have been training in the USA to use the F-16 since the war started last February.
I believe the US said the arrival of the battery in Ukraine would take “months” due to the need to train Ukrainians on it. I guess you can say they’re being intentionally deceptive but who knows?🤷🏻♂️
@@XxTheGreatDestroyerx From what I read it takes 4 weeks to learn to operate the system, but several months to learn how to perform maintenance on the system.
5 months later;
Patriot shot down hypersonic missiles
LOL
ballistic missiles since only Russia boasts that Kinzhals are HS when they are not in reality
An outstanding presentation, Alex. Thanks !
Merry Christmas Sandboxx, Next year, Could you please do a comparison video on the 1980s Pershing 2 v Todays Chinese/Indian/Russian Hypersonics please?
Really interesting report! I can see a real danger with having such an expensive defense system. You either use it against cheap suicide drones and spend a ton of money fast, or you don't and therefore signal "regular civilians aren't worth it".
It's a fine balance!
At least 3M-54 Kalibr and PAC-3 MSE missiles seem to cost a roughly similar amount to purchase (3-6mil), so against proper advanced ballistic or cruise missiles it is a cost effective solution.
Against slow-moving propeller drones it would be better if Ukraine received radar-guided gun AA to cover important infrastructure and cities. Let Russia waste their drones against the countryside and low priority targets, terror bombings have never reduced the opponent's will to fight.
And if the drones are used to take put the patriot system?
@@afishl1 Russia does not possess drones that can deliver anti-radiation missiles or lock radars.
As they have not had any luck in hitting the HIMARS systems that are far closer to the front line I would consider it unlikely they would even bother with such a difficult target.
@@Certio0 they don’t need to lock radars to destroy the patriot, they can just input the coordinates from intel and you can’t say the same about himars because himars is mobile vs a stationary patriot
Trusting Russia is like trusting that skunk wont spray you if you run up on it
Great video!
Interesting comments on problems found and fixed. In 1999, I found and fixed design flaws in the memory boards of the Engagement Control Computer which randomly rebooted the Patriot computer which seemed to take ten minutes to boot up. Raytheon was milking the government instead of fixing it, so they called me in to work at Huntsville. But I did see the complete Scud missile they had at Ft. Bliss. My solution was just to replace some chips, no re-work, in all Patriot installations around the world in the year 2000, between Gulf Wars.
Why anyone would have faith in any Russian system at this point is beyond me. Even if their system is somehow as good as they say it is there's probably only like 3 fully functional units in existence lol. The rest are sitting on flat tires and were stripped for parts to sell by the soldiers who were supposed to operate them. How do fanboys of the Russian military even exist anymore? The last year has to have been humiliating for them.
Question, for all of the cost analyst,, how about a $5 million missile to shoot down a $20,000 drone that can destroy a $10 million dollar power plant? Makes sense now? Geeze.
G/H band and C-Band are the same frequency band. One is the older standard and one is the NATO standard nomenclature
Well, Alex, once again you've gone into and beyond the published story and into reality.
Thanks for telling it like it is.
Russian transparency lol oxymoron
The only thing transparent about Russia is how badly it's failing on all fronts, while pretending everything is going to plan
Shout out to Patriot for being the first system to intercept an _alleged_ "hypersonic missile", Kinzhal.
Just did six more.
@@williamwchuang yeeaaaaaahhh buddy! And it appears Ukraine was using LAST GEN patriot PAC-3-CSI, which was fielded in 2001... The latest and greatest is the PAC-3-MSE. Its more effective for weapons like kinzhal.
Fake news
Been loving the uploads, we need more of these god like channels XD
Good time to try out these systems.
Yes! More stuff for Ukraine! Slowly inching to be involved in that conflict. Lmao.
Good, our rs28 Sarmat systems are waiting
Good luck with your 60 year old nuclear weapons
@@user-km5kj8xh1x I don’t think Russia is in the place to criticize us on outdated systems😂
@@user-km5kj8xh1x we will destroy Russia
@@user-km5kj8xh1x so are your legions of T-14 armata..... Oh wait, they're not....
@@user-km5kj8xh1x, LOL, you know that the US spends more money on maintaining our nukes than the ENTIRE budget for the Russian military right? How many of your nukes still work? I mean judging by how poorly Russia has maintained, well, everything in their military, we wouldn't even need nukes to wipe Russia off the map.
Seriously, Russia is a 3rd world country with oil/gas, other natural resources and nukes, there is absolutely NOTHING Russia produces that can't be easily replaced. Russia does like to export misery, suffering and horror to it's neighbors though, which is why they don't want anything to do with your criminal regime.
Israel's new laser defense system is a game changer.. Even if the patriot was close to the iron dome, Israel's new system is faster cheaper and unlimited in shots at the target as long as it has power.
Yeah only in clear skys
@@marcusoden4850 In time it will use a radar, and or heat sensing targeting system. Along with its current system. China and others are developing heat recognition systems. If china can do it, than the west is more than capable.
Most sophisticated Israeli tech is an offshoot of American, or is supported by American aid to accommodate their more unique needs... Which is why it's extra annoying when they don't act like good allies and adequately contribute to global solutions like the defense of Ukraine.
Not comparable systems. DEWs have short range and cannot shoot down hard, fast targets. They are exceptional at dealing with cheap, soft targets at almost zero cost, though. Both are needed, they supplement each other.
I saw the first SCUD hit by Patriot the night the war started. We were in MOPP 4 for 5 hours and everything was quiet except for chemical alarms. We didn't get the official all clear till morning.
The chemical alarms were brutal.
Please do make a follow up vid-great content!
ONE patriot battery for the entirety of Ukraine? Guess where it'll be deployed? Zelensky's house xD You need several hundred to cover Ukraine-Russia border. One battery is useless and will be destroyed.
How many HIMARS installations have Russia been able to disable so far? Yeah, didn't think so. Russias weapons are tat, their kit is tat and their soldiers are tat
@@olly115 Well, if you believe Russia - All of them! Twice! loll
US&A / CIA will facilitate the death of Zelensky once he's no longer useful.
I suspect it is basically a starter kit which will likely grow
@@olly115 stand by, we’ll see what happens during the coming offensive. The 12 divisions being mustered could be a real challenge to Ukraine, both materially and manpower.
Is this the propaganda channel. The real life performance of this system has been horrendous. Look at its perfect vs the houtis in Yemen with their Stone Age weapons for examples 🤦♂️
Perhaps do some research on the Yemen conflict bud
@@treycotterI have kiddo. Do you want to actually provide examples or just a fluffy reply?
So… let me guess you went on some Russian/Chinese propaganda channel and they said “Patriot bad, S-400+Chink copy good” and called it a night?
@@PeterMuskrat6968what on earth are you talking about? What does the S400 or whatever have to do with the abysmal real life performance of the patriot?
I mean it is the Saudi Army we're talking about here. If you kit them out with top of the line WH40k Imperial Guard gear they'll still loose to highly motivated insurgents with AKs and cheap drones. If the SANG were sent in it would be a different story, but they're strictly for regime security and so are too valuable to send out for such a low priority mission.
That Patriot passive radar capability is intriguing. Would love to know how it can guide missiles to multiple targets without active radar. Could it be a bi-static or multi-static system?
I think you are thinking of its PESA radar, and while the P does stand for passive it’s not passive in the traditional sense of the word, it still emits EM radiation, it just uses one transmitter for multiple different beams, contrasting with AESA (active) radar systems, which can use multiple.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 Oh my god thank you. The cringe from engineering illiterate US fanboys is unbearable.
Thanks for sharing
Alex
I really like your channel, nicely done.
Good video and well delivered information. QUESTION :
Why don't we hear about the A-10.
I thought this conflict was what it was made for Shooting Tanks in Europe.
Thanks for all your work.
Zero survivability against modern air defense
Excellent video 💯
Amazing Video!
Hey Alex!
Thoroughly enjoyed this video. Man, going through all that data sorting the good from bad sounds like aspirin time...believe me, I've clocked that in spades under BAFOs. Anyway, most won't get the part of the company that's involved with missiles vs aircraft. I worked on the Space Shuttle External Tank program and interviewed with Martin Marrietta before the merger. It was a choice location in Orlando! I turned them down however, since the offer was in anticipation of winning development of a missile canister cover project, which they lost. It was the evolution of today's cover where they rip-away as the missle pierces the cover material. So, yeah, not necessarily in Lockheed's backyard. Even in those days, MMC was machining parts to 0.00005". I know, half a ten thousandth of an inch, blew my mind (1982). But it was experimental equipment for improved performance under high-exelleration @ launch for solid fuel missile motors.
Anyway, good video!
Good honest video information.
3:20 mins in and flat earthers are already in the mud lol
Very minimal aviation content… and I’m not even mad. Fantastic content and presentation no matter the subject
It would be great if the Patriot missiles had enough range that they could take down the aircraft launching the cruse missiles targeting civilian infrastructure. Short of that providing a high intercept rate on cruse missiles and drones would be very helpful.
Well, we're about to find out for sure.