Belmont Stakes 2024 Preview + Preakness Recap: Seize the Grey, Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
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- Опубликовано: 18 май 2024
- In this horse racing handicapping video recorded on 5-19-24, Jarrod Horak previews the 2024 Belmont Stakes and recaps the 2024 Preakness Stakes.
#belmontstakes possible field (as of 5-19-24) - Antiquarian, Dornoch, Fierceness, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Seize the Grey, Sierra Leone, The Wine Stewward, Thorpedo Anna, Tuscan Gold
#preakness 2024 final order of finish: 1st - Seize the Grey, 2nd - Mystik Dan, 3rd - Catching Freedom, 4th - Tuscan Gold, 5th - Just Steel, 6th - Uncle Heavy, 7th - Imagination, 8th - Mugatu. Morning line favorite Muth scratched.
Kentucky Derby 2024 final order of finish: Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Catching Freedom, T O Password, Resilience, Stronghold, Honor Marie, Endlessly, Dornoch, Track Phantom, West Saratoga, Domestic Product, Epic Ride, Fierceness, Society Man, Just Steel, Grand Mo the First, Just a Touch
The 2024 #kyderby was the 12th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4, and Mystik Dan nipped Sierra Leone by a nose, with Forever Young another nose back in third. Catching Freedom and T O Password completed the Super High 5.
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I don’t where Arrogate had mud stats , his trainer Bob Baffert scratched him from the San Pasquale because of heavy rain.
As a sire, Arrogate is 23% with his wet track runners according to Brisnet stats.
Jarrod, I wonder if Dornoch will show up in the Belmont. He came in 2nd to Seize the Gray in his first Maiden race at Saratoga last July. I'm thinking a good $1 Superbox could be - Antiquarian, Fierceness, Seize the Grey, Sierra Leone and Thorpedo Anna. ***BUT - Dornoch or Tuscan Gold could certainly blow that ticket, even Honor Marie (terrible trip in Derby, but has heart & fight and finished 8th).....so will have to see how the race shapes up, as might be better off doing 2-3 diff. Tri and Super keys.
Dornoch is still on the list of Belmont Stakes hopefuls. He has not had any published workouts since the Derby. The Belmont will be interesting this year with the change in venue and shorter distance. The field should start to come into sharper in the coming days. I agree that Honor Marie and Tuscan Gold can be in the mix.
At the wirse I thought the 3H CF got up for 2nd but got pimpled for Place by the Derby winner 5H you win some photos you lose some photos that's the way it goes I'm mainly a win bettor on occassion I'll bet Win and Place and some exotics it seems when I bet Win and Place I run 3rd and when I bet just Win I run 2nd not all the time because I do cash a decent amount of times but you know what I mean as afellow horseplayer I can't believe that angle that D.Wayne pulled off off with his 6H he's famous for that and it's an old time trilainers angle he ran him in the Derby undercard in the Pat Day Mile where he won but that race he put speed in him which set him up in the Preakness congrads to the HOF D.Wayne great job and to the connections I had a good day today Sunday betting Aqueduct so allhis good congrads on breaking the 1 million mmark keep up the great work
I agree with you. I thought the 3 was going to get up for the place. I was on the wrong end of the win photo in the Derby. I don't know if it is true that the phot finishes even out over time, but it does not seem that way.
We agree again about Lukas and his old school methods. He took the other trainers to school on Saturday. I was looking for a fresh horse to win and not a runner from the Derby. A Derby entrant did not win but it was hardly the fresh horse angle. Seize the Grey was making his 5th start since Feb. 24 and was wheeling back in two weeks. Only Lukas could pull off something like that. Great training job stretching back out and wiring the field. He outsmarted me that's for sure.
Thanks for the nice remarks about my channel. I enjoy our racing conversations and appreciate your support.
@@JarrodHorak Absolutely my friend and as always great insights
@@charlesbadrock Thanks.
Sierra Leone is the best horse in this crop. Chad Brown needs to give his rider the tools to perform his duty. He is not doing this. Get rid of that snaffle bit Chad. This guy needs to quit leaning in and run straight. Huge talent here but Chad Brown is not helping this team. Will not win Belmont without equipment changes.
Oh he's running in the Belmont and yes they need equipment changes. SL is an INCREDIBLE horse. Any trainer would LOVE to have Chad's problems.
Sierra Leone is two noses away from being undefeated and I trust Chad Brown to have him ready to run a top race in the Belmont Stakes. I am all for trying anything they can do to reduce the bad lugging in habit. They have been working him inside of horses frequently. They need to work him in company outside his workmates more to simulate a race. He always rallies outside and lugs in. Gaffalione needs to use his left stick in early stretch to keep him from leaning on other horses until he clears and makes the lead. He will be virtually unstoppable if he runs a straighter course.
They need irad on Sierra Leone
Needs a different jockey
@@mruss04 no chance!
Seize the Gray's Sire had great mud stats. Comes from some serious mudders I overlooked that. Great recap. I like to go over things. I shldve stayed away here ...once Muth was,scratched. Wow...Belmont Stakes...only a mile and a qtr? Jeesh. It is supposed to b 1.5 miles...an endurance race. That is a game changer. This year is a mess. And yes...Sierra Leone shldve won KYD....he actually ran 72 more feet than MD. MD hugged the rail so good job jockey. SMH. Frustrating Triple Crown this yr. I will be back nxt yr. Not sure I will risk money on a fake Belmont Stakes. Not my year. I usually do well in Preakness. Wet tracks r not my thing.
I don't like wet tracks either. Too many variables. Seize the Grey had wet track experience in a pair of races as a 2-year-old at Saratoga (win and a 3rd). You are right about his sire as well (23% wet track sire). He just was not fast enough on paper to be considered a strong win contender, but everything fell into place for him and it was over once he got an easy early lead.
I liked the 1 1/2 miles distance of the Belmont and have had plenty of success in that race for the last decade. It is supposed to be run at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga in 2024 and 2025, and return to Belmont Park after construction is complete in 2026. It is supposed to go back to the traditional 1 1/2 miles distance in 2026.
It has been a frustrating Triple Crown Series this year. Mystik Dan scraping the paint and Sierra Leone racing wide and costing himself the Derby by lugging in, Muth scratching out of the Preakness and the race being run on a wet, speed favoring surface. I frequently hit the Preakness as well and it sounds like we are on the same page.
Hard to go to the lead when you're busy cutting off tusks and gold
You could tell from the break that the plan on Imagination was to establish outside tactical position and track the pace. Tuscan Gold got the worst of it at the start with a bump from Just Steel to his inside, and Imagination was able to steal his lane.
Nyso goin?
Nysos is not going to run in the Belmont Stakes. He has no published works in the last 60 days. Hopefully he returns to action later this year.
triple crown is a joke all want to run in derby than go home if they dont win
Triple Crown is on its Deathbed....Who "Exactly" Makes These Decisions to Cut Crown Distances and Change Tracks They Run on During Crown?
I do not think the Triple Crown Series is in trouble. It will continue to thrive well into the future. All three tracks are updating their facilities and trying to make the series work in the modern world. It is a fine line between tradition and modernization.
The game is always evolving and the three races in five weeks is one of the things that needs to be addressed. The Derby will stay on the first Saturday in May. It is up to Maryland and NYRA officials to discuss moving their events to different dates if they decide that is in the best interest of all parties.
The venue and distance of the Belmont had to change due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. It made the most sense from a financial standpoint to temporarily move the race to Saratoga. The final leg of the series will move back to Belmont Park when that venue is ready to reopen, and hopefully they will get back to the mile and half distance.
The Preakness will temporarily move to Laurel Park when Pimlico closes for renovations, and will return to Old Hilltop when that track completes renovations. Pimlico desperately needs to be updated.
Triple Crown is in great shape. 2 in the last 10 years.
Belmont changed to Saratoga because Belmont is undergoing re-contruction
@@StevenJRoosa For a Few Years Yes...They are Going Back to 12F When Belmont is Ready?
@@Brick-so1ig Yes! That is the plan.
Forvever Young would have won the Derby by 3 length...
It is fun to speculate but we will never know for sure. My best guess is that Sierra Leone rallies wide, keeps a straight line, and wins the Derby with Forever Young 2nd and Mystik Dan third. I am not going to put up a number of lengths he would have won by. That is beyond my level of expertise. All we can hope for is that all these horses stay healthy and meet up later this year in the BC Classic.
Congrats to Mystic Dan the Derby winner and Forever Young for his SHOW in the Derby. Maybe we see him again
THE top 3 all on 2 weeks rest from Derby day. How many "handicappers" dismissed these 3 coming off 2 weeks rest? 😂😂
I used Catching Freedom and Mystik Dan on top in multiple exotics wagers. Wish I used the winner more prominently but you cannot bet them all. In recent years, fresh horses performed well at Pimlico, but Derby runners have had much success historically in the Preakness. The relatively quick turnaround angle urned out to be a strong one this year.
@JarrodHorak I had the TRI and the 2 week return naysayers is just a bunch of garbage. It matters if you have the right horse. I wasn't going to bet a ton on the race but I so nailed it I wish I would have. A one dollar TRI BOX of CF + MD + ALL cost 6 dollars and paid 184 dollars.
@@bnegs521 Every race is a new puzzle and many factors go into the final outcome of a horse race. An angle might work one year and fail miserably the next. The 2 week turnaround worked this time and that is all that matters. I like the bet small and win big method. Nice job.
@JarrodHorak That is true with each race being a puzzle. Thats true. I just don't get the throwing horses out of the top 3. And so many experts tossing the favorite from their exactas and tris got better odds with Uncle Heavy and had LOSING TICKETS. Who cares what odds you get if you don't win.
So Sieze the Grey is the Now horse in this division ? Now 10-1 in the Belmont !!
And everybody did not think Imagination which is muth stable mate would win the preakness..
Wasn't even the favorite or the co- favorite...Maybe you thought that Imagination would win and bet the horse but, look and listen closely to Bob Baffert and he will tell you the horse is a 1 million dollar head case..Even though the horse was fresh he wasn't going to beat his nefew in the race and MD just ran the Derby...Imagination ..lol Come on man...The horse won the softest Grade 2 in America in a 4 horse race...Low speed buyer numbers to boot..But, yes alot people bet him because he is trained by Bob Baffert but, they not handing away trophy's because your trained by Baffert..
So far Buddy you pegged a winner ..Let's go...
The "now" horse due to back-to-back graded wins. The great thing about that is that Seize the Grey will take more money than he should in the Belmont, and bettors like us will love that. He will have to beat me again. Sierra Leone will probably win the Belmont and I am not interested in the Preakness horses other than Tuscan Gold.
Tuscan Gold was your too Choice in the Preakness ??
LoL..Why ? Trained by Chad Brown ?
Sir it took the horse 2 races to win a Maiden Special Weight Race and the ran 3rd in the Louisiana derby..Then took 50 days off...And you thought you would wake up on Sunday and see that the horse had won the preakness the day before..? Really ?
1 Maiden win and was your top pick in preakness ? All those horse that carried 3 high levels of class ?
That's Embarrassing....
I was hoping you wanted to have a real discussion about horse racing. I did not realize that all you wanted to do was ridicule me. I picked Tuscan Gold and would do it again. He did not run his race and that is fine. I was wrong. I can live with that. If you want to talk about Triple Crown history, wagering strategies, class, pace, speed ratings, sheets patterns etc., that is fine, but I am not going to play the troll game. If you want to go down that road, I will no longer be responding to you.
Again people watch all these "experts" videos you can...and just start tossing the horses they like. And when you're left with a few horses none of these clowns like use them.
Don't even waste your time trying to pull that stunt on my channel. You came to the wrong place for that.
Since 2014, I gave out winning tickets for the Preakness Stakes in 2015, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023:
2015 PREAKNESS
American Pharoah/Tale of Verve/Divining Rod TRIFECTA ($985.00)
2016 PREAKNESS
EXAGGERATOR ($7.20), EXACTA ($88.40), SUPERFECTA ($634.00)
2018 PREAKNESS
Justify/Bravazo EXACTA ($27.40), TRIFECTA ($296.60), SUPERFECTA ($745.00)
2021 PREAKNESS
Rombauer/Midnight Bourbon EXACTA ($98.60), TRIFECTA ($325.40), SUPERFECTA ($2,051)
2022 PREAKNESS STAKES
EARLY VOTING ($13.20), EXACTA ($25.80), TRIFECTA ($133.00)
2023 PREAKNESS
NATIONAL TREASURE ($7.80), TRIFECTA ($48.20), SUPERFECTA ($144.80)
Since 2014, I gave out winning tickets for the Belmont Stakes in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023:
2014 BELMONT STAKES
Tonalist/Commissioner EXACTA ($348.00)
2015 BELMONT STAKES
American Pharoah/Frosted/Keen Ice TRIFECTA ($109.50)
2017 BELMONT STAKES
TAPWRIT ($12.60), EXACTA ($45.20), TRIFECTA ($624.00), SUPERFECTA ($4,486)
2018 BELMONT STAKES
Justify/Gronkowski/Hofburg TRIFECTA ($459.48)
2020 BELMONT STAKES
Tiz the Law/Dr. Post/Max Player TRIFECTA ($199.00)
2021 BELMONT STAKES Essential Quality/Hot Rod Charlie EXACTA ($15.00), SUPERFECTA ($121.40)
2022 BELMONT STAKES
Mo Donegal/Nest EXACTA ($27.60), TRIFECTA ($375.00), SUPERFECTA ($1,384.00)
2023 BELMONT STAKES
Arcangelo/Forte/Tapit Trice/Hit Show Superfecta ($585.00)
So, keep watching my videos and throwing out my Triple Crown Series picks. That should go over well at the betting windows!