Home Sales Dropped to a 14yr LOW

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  • Опубликовано: 8 ноя 2024

Комментарии • 327

  • @professorprofessorson8795
    @professorprofessorson8795 Месяц назад +24

    2008 was also a 50 basis points cut....

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад +6

      But 2008 had over inventory. 2024 low inventory.

    • @Ja56780
      @Ja56780 Месяц назад +5

      September of 2008 to be exact.

    • @Heather-db6wq
      @Heather-db6wq Месяц назад +9

      @@iishyxvietxboyii12024 does not have low inventory in all places. There are over 100 houses new and old for sale in my 10 mile drive to work. Street after street have 3-4 of the exact same brand new house for sale. Tons of inventory all of Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada.

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад +1

      @@Heather-db6wqDude, you don’t realize how over supply we had in 2008 for a crash…

    • @Heather-db6wq
      @Heather-db6wq Месяц назад +5

      @@iishyxvietxboyii1 dude I do know BC I bought my house in 08 in Florida a foreclosure. I literally looked at brand new houses with plastic still on the appliances already in foreclosure. They over built them and they are over building now.

  • @eugenefirebird8938
    @eugenefirebird8938 Месяц назад +19

    House prices are ridiculously way way way too high. They are 3x real value in super bubble areas and 2x real value most other places. If I were a young person trying to buy a house in the USA right now, I'd move to Bolivia before I'd pay these ripoff prices. No No No!

    • @rafaelmariscal9170
      @rafaelmariscal9170 Месяц назад +3

      So are eggs, gas prices, utilities, insurance, health care and the list can go on for a long time. Maybe the dollar has just lost too much of it's value and wages have not kept up with iREAL INFLATION rates.

    • @raffiart5121
      @raffiart5121 Месяц назад +3

      @@rafaelmariscal9170
      Not as much as housing. Inflation in housing market has been way higher than all other sectors.

    • @rafaelmariscal9170
      @rafaelmariscal9170 Месяц назад

      @raffiart5121 Google "home prices in gold" and you will see that home prices are still the same as in the 1980's on the charts. Similar scenario if you price houses in the price of a barrel of oil. In the 80' s it was about $20 and today about $80. A four times increase. Keep in mind that homes today are also being built bigger and with more requirements. I think the real problem is that people have been lied to for a long time about inflation to keep wages low and profits high. You see that reflected in the stock market.

  • @fh1087
    @fh1087 Месяц назад +21

    I stepped out of the market in 2022, now interest rate is still much higher than they were back then, and so are home prices. So why do they think I can re-enter the market and buy now? For it to be affordable in my case, both prices and interest rates would need to be lower than they were in 2022. At this point, people who already bought homes can refinance, but that doesn't help bring in new buyers

    • @j.l.salayao8055
      @j.l.salayao8055 Месяц назад +3

      Sorry, "you snooze, you lose".

    • @fh1087
      @fh1087 Месяц назад +1

      @@j.l.salayao8055 😄 ok realtor!

    • @fh1087
      @fh1087 Месяц назад

      @@j.l.salayao8055 when I couldn't afford,I couldn't buy. It's simple!

    • @nitroneonicman
      @nitroneonicman Месяц назад +1

      ​@@j.l.salayao8055 I'm willing to bet this will be more if a "slow and steady wins the race" type of scenario when all you fomo rabbits are underwater on your mortgage

    • @stephenbender7593
      @stephenbender7593 Месяц назад +3

      Hopefully you were able to save some $ during that time...

  • @jesslopez0619
    @jesslopez0619 Месяц назад +19

    We will be buying when the prices decrease. We will continue to save and invest and wait.

    • @MindYourBusiness1988
      @MindYourBusiness1988 Месяц назад +2

      Same

    • @HappyandBlessed-wj7gc
      @HappyandBlessed-wj7gc Месяц назад +2

      ...and pay rent.
      "Waiting" isn't free or cheap. And so far it has been the wrong play. It usually is when it comes to real estate.

    • @Pillahokka
      @Pillahokka Месяц назад +1

      Exactly what my uncle said 20 years ago. He’s still waiting.

  • @theRetainer
    @theRetainer Месяц назад +16

    FOMO buying is done and unfortunately for those who bought during the FOMO years and found themselves in a home needing substantial renovations, the new construction market is way more expensive than what it used to be, so they have no way out unless another FOMO buyer swoops in and decides to waive inspections like they did in 2021-2023.

    • @robertjones2282
      @robertjones2282 Месяц назад +3

      They are doomed.

    • @gamers_united558
      @gamers_united558 Месяц назад +1

      @@theRetainer renovation is expensive we spent close 200k to renovate a flip house and barely made $60k in profit 1 month ago. We dropped the price fast to secure the sale because I don’t want to be the last one holding the bag. Same amount of renovation would be 100-120k before Covid.

    • @JRMaxito
      @JRMaxito Месяц назад +2

      Don’t forget gas, electricity and home insurance have doubled since 2021 oh and food prices keep going up. I would be crazy to buy a home right now.

    • @natalya7356
      @natalya7356 Месяц назад

      Yep. FOMO buyers are usually the ones holding the bag

  • @Kurplode
    @Kurplode Месяц назад +35

    I don’t think sales will increase much at all. Rates have come down from the high 8s to mid 6s and it did nothing to help sales. That’s a 200 basis point cut that did nothing.

    • @ryansatchell2302
      @ryansatchell2302 Месяц назад +9

      In fact, sales decreased. 200 basis points in rate reduction, 20-30% more inventory, and sales still decreased. During PEAK buying season.
      The U.S. consumer simply can't afford these prices. They must come down or sales with stay below 4m.

    • @gamers_united558
      @gamers_united558 Месяц назад +1

      I foresee rates will go down to 4-5% by march next year.

    • @Ja56780
      @Ja56780 Месяц назад

      @@gamers_united558I don’t see rates falling below 5 long term, but time will tell.

    • @JasonWalter1
      @JasonWalter1  Месяц назад +8

      What's interesting about that 200 bps move is the Fed didn't cut rates during that timeframe yet mortgage rates have moved up slightly ever since the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday. Goes to show how mortgage rates account for future expectations of the Fed's moves.

    • @rafaelmariscal9170
      @rafaelmariscal9170 Месяц назад

      How long will it take todays lower rates to actually show up in closed home sales? Isn't there like a one to two month lag ? Supposedly, there are a lot of buyers waiting for rates to drop into the 5's to get serious about putting in offers. Rates are already in the high 5's.

  • @threemonkeys5441
    @threemonkeys5441 Месяц назад +12

    Running out of qualified buyers and buyers see a falling knife and don’t want to be the one to catch it. People are now worried about job loss

    • @HappyandBlessed-wj7gc
      @HappyandBlessed-wj7gc Месяц назад +1

      Is the knife falling up like prices are?

    • @8675-__
      @8675-__ 10 дней назад

      Why? There's too many jobs available in Georgia for all different fields

  • @renelopez2244
    @renelopez2244 Месяц назад +7

    Good morning everyone. What a fantastic time to get nerdy

  • @dannyo.7119
    @dannyo.7119 Месяц назад +9

    Good to see! As long as the inventory increases, interest rates slowly fall, and people don't buy as much then 2025 should look even better than this year but only time will tell.

  • @Icecoldbob
    @Icecoldbob Месяц назад +2

    As always, we appreciate your data analysis and informative videos. You always provide quality useful stuff! 👍

  • @joechughtai3155
    @joechughtai3155 Месяц назад +4

    With sales in the tank for more than a year, I don't understand how we're not seeing a mass exodus from real estate agents, and lots of mortgage companies going out of business.... maybe we're just not hearing about it though.

  • @minimalist0000
    @minimalist0000 Месяц назад +1

    Record low sales all while mortgage rates dropped from the high 7s to the low 6s. That a 1.5% drop in mortgage rates so people are not buying while inventory is growing. It's very interesting and still points to the problem that prices are too high for most people to buy.

  • @SC-sh6ux
    @SC-sh6ux Месяц назад +4

    I like your own analysis, you are good at it.

  • @lucasmiller6247
    @lucasmiller6247 Месяц назад +1

    Cutting rates is an incentive to wait for better rates as a buyer.
    This is the real estate cycle in action. There’s less reason for buyers to move quickly, but more projects are completed every month leading to higher vacancy, all while fear of recession prevents major purchases.

  • @jamesgaffney7591
    @jamesgaffney7591 Месяц назад

    Great video and interesting hearing and seeing comments about waiting for Rates to come down lower- a one percent decrease would save somebody about $250 a month on a $400,000 home loan
    Should that home value go up at an average of even 3% annually that’s getting $12,000 of equity at the cost of $3000 and if you multiply that year over year clearly homeownership has its advantages
    I think it’s a combination of higher prices , higher rates, taxes, insurance and the fact that incomes have not caught up with the 60% increase in the home prices over the past four years

  • @rb194100
    @rb194100 Месяц назад +3

    Jason confirmed, prices up by 50% in 5 years! We need a 50 % decrease or at leasr 48%

    • @LockedUpLarry
      @LockedUpLarry Месяц назад

      @@rb194100 50% up dosent equate to 50% down. 50 down would be cheaper then it started, which is still cool! 😎

  • @elizabethv7411
    @elizabethv7411 Месяц назад +5

    It’s the price. Not the rates.

    • @jaydeeare285
      @jaydeeare285 Месяц назад +2

      The rate affects the amount paid over the life of the loan far more than the original sales price does.
      It's shocking how few people on RUclips seem to realize that.

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад +1

      @@elizabethv7411 It’s actually both, lol. Wouldn’t you want low price and low rates?

    • @user-ln9mn8xc5y
      @user-ln9mn8xc5y Месяц назад +1

      @@jaydeeare285 It's shocking that people think that lowering the mortgage rates will make houses cheaper or more affordable.

  • @8675-__
    @8675-__ 10 дней назад +1

    Awesomeness! Great information

  • @Stacydsullivan
    @Stacydsullivan Месяц назад +1

    In central Jersey. One bedroom condos are selling for the same price as studios and one bedrooms in NYC (Manhattan) midtown by Central Park!
    The difference is HOAs! How is NYC getting away with HOA of 2,000+ a month!
    That’s seems like fraud🤷🏼‍♀️. The HOA is around 400 a month in NJ, with more roofs and landscaping to care for.
    Makes no sense at all.

  • @taoufiklaamari9203
    @taoufiklaamari9203 Месяц назад +2

    The market is showing signs of improved activity here in SF Bay Area

    • @JasonWalter1
      @JasonWalter1  Месяц назад

      I'm seeing that in the data too. CA market update coming soon.

  • @cjenkins79
    @cjenkins79 Месяц назад +1

    Jason you keep trying to imply that price appreciation is coming from the mix of homes sold. You were saying this months ago. I pointed out the case shiller has same house sales so it isn’t affected by the mix. Case shiller lags so you had you couldn’t compare. However now that it has been months we now have case shiller up to June.
    So you can look at the June case shiller and see that when you were saying the appreciation was coming from 1M+ homes you were wrong.
    And more than likely 3 months from now case shiller will show you wrong now in September.

    • @LockedUpLarry
      @LockedUpLarry Месяц назад +1

      @@cjenkins79 what does it show. Be specific with details plz

  • @Solid_Snack
    @Solid_Snack Месяц назад

    If you truly look at the data overall in the US, housing prices increased year by year. Long gone are the days of $200,000 homes. This is the new norm and housing is not crashing.

  • @jordanh4127
    @jordanh4127 Месяц назад

    Utah market is still crazy! They stopped building houses around us for 6 months. But now it is right back to it. Our home is only 2 1/2 years old. Not seeing slow down here at all

    • @JRMaxito
      @JRMaxito Месяц назад +2

      @@jordanh4127 because Utah is closed to California and they have the money for it. Everyone is fleeing California.

    • @jordanh4127
      @jordanh4127 Месяц назад

      @@JRMaxito very true! It is insane what has happened with home prices here

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад

      @@JRMaxito yet, California is still the most populated.

    • @DEG1985
      @DEG1985 Месяц назад

  • @EdgarSkipper
    @EdgarSkipper Месяц назад

    Where I work, a company that provides services to the gov. They just laid off around 50 engineers... and when I was hired 8 years ago I was told by then the nanager the job was very safe, very rare soneone... would be fired... either things changed or economy is in really bad shape

  • @that9blife465
    @that9blife465 Месяц назад +2

    Good time to start low balling offers

  • @someguy2773
    @someguy2773 Месяц назад +3

    "Home sales were disappointing", this framing is kind of irritating. "Disappointing" for who? It makes it sound like we should be worried about real estate companies and how many transactions they make per year off of grossly inflated products

    • @sgpbnp
      @sgpbnp Месяц назад +2

      Good callout.

  • @MaddieBr
    @MaddieBr Месяц назад +2

    In my corner of Yolo County some homes were taken off the market, then put back on a few weeks later at slightly reduced prices. Presumably to reset DOM. These may still be overpriced for neighborhood and condition.

  • @Solid_Snack
    @Solid_Snack Месяц назад

    Is austin a good city for buyers?

  • @Matthew-rp3jf
    @Matthew-rp3jf Месяц назад +2

    Dont rent houses. Dont prop up the investors buying houses to make themselves rich.

  • @LockedUpLarry
    @LockedUpLarry Месяц назад +3

    Week after week we sit here and act like this is all normal. No fraud, or manipulation. In other news: Senator Hawley tried, yet again, to pass a bill blocking senators from insider trading. lol. 😂

  • @pattibarnard1270
    @pattibarnard1270 Месяц назад +2

    Prices are still too high

    • @jaydeeare285
      @jaydeeare285 Месяц назад +3

      Get used to it.

    • @MLagarde0425
      @MLagarde0425 Месяц назад

      @@jaydeeare285Nan history repeat itself. Nothing goes up forever

    • @jaydeeare285
      @jaydeeare285 Месяц назад +1

      @MLagarde0425 Neither one of those clichěs is an economic theory of any kind.

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад +1

      @@MLagarde0425 House prices has been going up since 1800s with a little hiccups here and there…

  • @rb194100
    @rb194100 Месяц назад +1

    Everyone gave up and learned to bake bread.

  • @eddiedelrosario9946
    @eddiedelrosario9946 Месяц назад +3

    Music to my ears! 😁

  • @VarandMusic
    @VarandMusic Месяц назад +3

    Come to L.A. and you'll see multiple offers on homes and a lot of cash offers.

    • @Ja56780
      @Ja56780 Месяц назад

      That’s one city in the entire nation. This video is on nationwide stats. The same could be said on the opposite side of the spectrum if I use Texas or Florida.

    • @HappyandBlessed-wj7gc
      @HappyandBlessed-wj7gc Месяц назад +3

      ​@Ja56780 No it is not "one city". Prices are up 3.7% nationally. Not "one city". 🙄

    • @Ja56780
      @Ja56780 Месяц назад

      @@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc Read the original comment. “Come to LA and you’ll see multiple offers and cash offers”. My response was in regards to multiple offers along with cash offers. Not whether or not prices are up or down. Try and focus on the initial statement and response. Your answer has nothing to do with either one.

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад +2

      @@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc This low inventory is killing prices for young buyers.

  • @johnwojtow9230
    @johnwojtow9230 Месяц назад

    I think home sales could also be down due to buyers waiting for next President.

  • @anandjayaram2616
    @anandjayaram2616 Месяц назад +5

    with interest rates going down - home sales will explode, expect the prices to go up at least another 40 %, remember every percent lower mortgage is 10 % higher in home price , so we should already start looking for new median prices to be atleast 20% higher next month ( there are 2 kind of people in the world one that understand sarcasm and ther other are realtors)

    • @robertjones2282
      @robertjones2282 Месяц назад +3

      You should never put all Your eggs in one basket, You should have had a backup career. Best of luck to you.

    • @JRMaxito
      @JRMaxito Месяц назад +3

      I don’t think prices will go up this ain’t 2021 when people were getting stimulus checks for a down payment. Also a lot of people can’t afford this Gas, electricity, home insurance and property taxes .

    • @lucasmiller6247
      @lucasmiller6247 Месяц назад +1

      Funny some people actually believe this

    • @LockedUpLarry
      @LockedUpLarry Месяц назад

      @@anandjayaram2616 I’m still waiving inspections, esp on commercial buildings! Just bought a 65 year old condo complex in FL sight unseen.

  • @lockup6104
    @lockup6104 Месяц назад +1

    Mahalo🍍🤙🏽

  • @straightdrive6192
    @straightdrive6192 Месяц назад +3

    Seasonality, ugh, I need to keep reminding people constantly. Come spring home sales will explode breaking home price records multiple times.

    • @robertjones2282
      @robertjones2282 Месяц назад +2

      I agree, Short sales and pre foreclosures will be of the hook in Spring.

    • @Kurplode
      @Kurplode Месяц назад +4

      But that’s not happening. Sales have been extremely low since late 2022. The 200 point drop in rates have not helped sales at all.
      The increase in prices you are seeing is the median price. If you look at the breakdown in sales by price tier, the median is up because homes priced 500k+ is way outselling homes priced below it.

    • @Ja56780
      @Ja56780 Месяц назад +1

      I understand your point, however his video stated that the stats are already adjusted for seasonality and we are talking about a 14 year low here. I’m sure California is a totally different animal, but it’s not necessarily the same nationwide.

    • @ryansatchell2302
      @ryansatchell2302 Месяц назад +2

      Just like this spring? When we had a whopping 4.2, 4.1, 4.1 million in sales from Mar-May?
      Furthermore -- August is not typically the LOW in sales volume for the year. Especially when its coupled with higher inventory and lower rates.
      This is far more than seasonality.

    • @threemonkeys5441
      @threemonkeys5441 Месяц назад +3

      This is more than seasonality. Don’t be delusional

  • @kraxkill4747
    @kraxkill4747 Месяц назад +1

    Yet the August Median sales price is UP 3% YoY.

    • @JasonWalter1
      @JasonWalter1  Месяц назад +1

      Yes

    • @bgorg1
      @bgorg1 Месяц назад +1

      This is also regionally differentiated. The market where I own a home is up more with no inventory. My destination market is down YoY and is a cash buying market (second homes or investments). This means mortgage rates impact my current market but not my destination market. This is just an example of on of millions of housing discussions being held this month.

    • @kraxkill4747
      @kraxkill4747 Месяц назад

      @@bgorg1 yes…but I would also add that this is almost always the case except for the absurd conditions we saw during the COVID money printer. Local markets are constantly going up down and sideways. I would say that when they are not it’s the exception not the norm. It will be interesting to see how prices are affected with the Fed moves. Keep an eye on the M2 and I would almost guarantee that home prices take the direction of the money supply.

  • @thekittyspy
    @thekittyspy Месяц назад +1

    Mortgage rates need to drop down to 3% for it to make sense to buy again, but then there will be another round of price increases, so what we really need is a good crash in prices 20-25% would make most sense, where its not as deep as full on 2008 drop but still enough to entail market towards a better price/value balance.

    • @Ja56780
      @Ja56780 Месяц назад

      @@thekittyspy I think we can all agree that rates for home loans won’t fall below 5 unless the economy is in terrible shape.

    • @iishyxvietxboyii1
      @iishyxvietxboyii1 Месяц назад

      @@Ja56780 It’s at 6 RN.

  • @Steverz32
    @Steverz32 Месяц назад +2

    1😊

  • @CurtisLoew-q7q
    @CurtisLoew-q7q Месяц назад

    So you think sales will increase year over year for the remainder of the year since mortgage should remain low for a while? -Curtis Loew