World Climate Migrations: Is Your City Ready?
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- Опубликовано: 29 апр 2024
- What can world cities do to prepare for the upheaval of up to four billion climate refugees? The most extreme climate models suggest that a third of the inhabited world will get as hot as the Sahara desert by 2070. If the human temperature niche is as narrow as a 2020 study suggests, up to 4 billion people might have to move by then-unless cities take action now. In this episode, we’ll explore this study and discuss what cities, regions and nations can do to not only survive these changes, but thrive while making them less likely.
Edenicity brings urbanism together with permaculture to find ways to heal the planet and vastly improve our quality of life. Learn more at / @edenicity
Download the Edenicity Reference Design at www.edenicity.com/
Videos Mentioned:
Andrew Milleson, • How 8,000 Food Forests... and • How the UN is Holding ...
John D. Liu, • Lessons of the Loess P...
Edenicity, • The Ecology of Transit... (why low-speed service vehicles work for high urban density) and • Can a City Have No Bad...
Studies Used:
Chi Xu (徐驰), Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer, Future of the human climate niche, PNAS, v.117 #21, pp. 11350-11355, (May 26, 2020) www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas...
Anusha Natarajan, Mohamad Moslimani and Mark Hugo Lopez, Key facts about recent trends in global migration, Pew Research, December 16, 2022, www.pewresearch.org/short-rea...
Ditlevsen, P., Ditlevsen, S. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 4254 (2023). doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39...
www.pbs.org/wnet/peril-and-pr...
www.worldometers.info/world-p...
Recorded on a Hollyland Lark Max Wireless Lavalier Microphone. Available at amzn.to/3WgNZdn (Note: as an Amazon Affiliate, I may earn commissions, at no added cost to you, for purchases made through this link).
Written and presented by Kev Polk. RUclips stills by the creators cited above. Images as cited above; others courtesy of Pexels. 
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We are so fucked 2.5 degrees of warming by 2045 I feel so bad for all the children
Oh it's going to be MUCH hotter and MUCH sooner than that! We will hammer past 3 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures before 2030 and humans will be extinct by 2040 😁
Oh nice, another one for climate apocalypsism, this doesnt totally feed my resentment to climate scientists who tought that the "means justified the ends" and proclaimed that by now half of the world would be flooded or dead, which totally didnt give a lot of ammunition to climate change deniers and put us in a much worse situation.
@@J.M.-nb4gw guy mcpherson said in 2018 we had 6 months left on earth.
It depends who and HOW measures@@J.M.-nb4gw
Dont create children. Still thinking about that
I’m glad someone is thinking about planning for this. If it’s a real possibility, even if it’s 50%, it’s responsible to prepare for. In th Midwest USA we had basements ready for tornadoes, but never needed them. But unprepared in an emergency is more embarrassing.
In the 3 weeks since you posted this, those tornado basements have been quite necessary.
There's a dieoff coming.
Yes,… yes there is.
You have no idea
It's already well underway. We just aren't seeing the reports. But if you do just a little digging you can already see it is underway and it is quite jarring how widespread it already is.
Did you guys even watch the video? It's not about vague conspiracies, we're talking about concrete challenges and real mitigations
@@rosshoyt2030 I did not. There's nothing that can be done to deal with what is coming. What you are seeing is "Insufficient Action" which is a great way to make you feel better about an impossible future. Go for it. I think it is mostly a waste of time doing so beyond the personal level. I'd be happy to explain why, but not all at once because there's a mountain of information. If you liked the video, I would suggest not engaging with me and just moving on. I have no desire to depress anyone. I am taking insufficient action for my family. I know it to be true, but I can't just sit idly by. We all must cope how we can...
Yeah the AMOC shutting down will change that map significantly.
I wonder about that, It would make sense.
Better hurry it up then!
AMOC shutting down would be such a catastrophe, it's unbelievable really. Iirc they said in a recent talk by a climate scientist that Norway could cool down as much as 20 degrees within a decade. Not even considering the southern hemisphere heating up even further.
Europeans will become climate refugees too meaning the Americas got to deal with BILLIONS of people
Think its not as easy without considering all the other models. With climate change, its not just elevated temperatures but also extreme weather which can make or break the choice of areas to migrate to. If you look at the current extreme weather occurrences, they are all happening mostly in the temperate zones. Tropical and equatorial zones have elevated temperatures but not all have extreme weather which is a lot harder to defend against than temperature. People in Northern Africa and Middle East have adapted to the high temperatures but how does one adapt to extreme weather conditions? I think while temperature is a factor, it isn't the most important factor. As you have pointed out, people can and have adapted to temperature changes. I think the crucial ones are water availability and extreme weather probability or frequency. Who would want to move to an area where water supply is unpredictable or where the likelihood of your home being swept away by floods or blown to pieces by winds? Its a lot harder to recover from. If I were to guess, I think the equatorial regions would be ideal because of the bountiful availability of solar energy and other renewables as well as fresh water.
Thank you for this!
Interesting video! made me happy to run into Prague at the end. The image you use at the end of the #23 near the Prague Castle, at the stop beside the castle's royal garden (or so it appears to me) . prague is not a perfect city regarding transit but i do very much love the sections of tram lines that are lined with grass and/or trees
Thank you so much for this video and all the resources you've shared!! Will definitely check them out!
Here's hoping you won't be the only permaculture urbanist for long
Love your videos! They are very well researched. You dederve a lot more views!
In the case of Mexico, there are areas that suffer a lot from water shortages and extreme temperatures due to high pressure systems, what is seens is that the areas above the tropics would become more humid and temperate, such as the northeast of the country. These areas do not have a large population, but the center, which has the most temperate climates and abundance of water, will be greatly affected by water shortages, the majority of the country's population lives there. Maybe Tamaulipas and Sinaloa will become something similar to the current southern China
That is already happening, according to reports. Tragically, the only entity in Mexico with a guaranteed water supply seems to be the Coca Cola company.
@@AdrianJamesEllisque ganas de llorar con esa verdad
smart thinking
Been displaced and living in a van for 7 years
I sincerely hope you've been able to upgrade the interior to a proper level of habitability. 🙏
Vagabond with a visa myself.
but do to climate change or job insecurity?
Animal agriculture is the leading cause of deforestation, habitat destruction, water pollution, ocean dead zones and *species extinction* . -United Nations FAO
Animal agriculture uses 83% of global farmland and only provides 18% of global calories. When we switch to a plant based food system, we can restore/reforest 76% of global farmland AND be able to feed all humans. -journal Science
Actually pasture sequesters more carbon than forests and a lot more than agriculture - I eat a lot less food on a carnivore diet - And you can give up wasteful habits like showers and teeth things, you won’t need them anymore.
we have left it to late and also most of us act like chimpanzees and facts do not matter .
@@johnnyjet3.1412 lol , going for idiot reply of the year ..try harder maybe add some flat earth references . maybe on that 1 in 10000 family farm pasture with a pet cow ..not what you see today . you eat the same calories as anyone else but use more land for it .
@RNG-ts5gn support Animal Rising!
@@johnnyjet3.1412 it's not just about CO2. It's about biodiversity loss, land use and pollution. Given that the amount of land used for animals is about 70% (includes food growing, grazing etc.) then there is absolutely no future for animal agriculture. It's just a matter of time ....
Amazing video!!
The times, they are changing
As a tip for your RUclips and activist career: use the sensationalist title for the clicks, and explain away the inaccuracies of the title at the start similar to this video.
In high school I got interested in permaculture, now as a young adult I'm listening to urbanists. You are providing a great perspective with videos that appear much more rigorously-studied than others.
PS: I'd personally like more permaculture videos, especially about incorporating those ideas in city building. From water sheds to habitat and how we can make sustainable nature areas for people and animals to enjoy. I'm hoping I just need to find the video on your channel.
Green zone here. While Russia may be able to house a billion people space-wise, there's no way we'll be able to feed them all. Two weeks ago we lost a bunch of crops due to freezing, tomorrow it will be +26 C. The future of agriculture is bleak.
Thanks for the valuable perspective.
another excellent video
Many of those green areas in Canada, Scandinavia and Russia are shield areas that have very thin soil. If you see lots of lakes, that means you are looking at one of those thin-soiled shield areas.
You should really consider making a discord to facilitate conversations with your audience about this
Please do keep in mind that there is a reason by 3 billion people live in Southeast Asia and not in Europe.
Given how much hotter it is getting in SE Asia, everyone there will head north soon
@@freeheeler09 yes, the great migration will likely begin immediately after the first mass casualty event.
@@freeheeler09 or south, into a basically empty land......
There are lots of reasons, including but confined to: The Black Death killing half the population, WW1 & 2both killing large parts of the population, and earlier industrialisation & adoption of birth control methods.
no offense meant, but this is a joke.
11 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second, a current exponential doubling rate of 14 years and Hansen's latest forcing calculations take us right back to Arrhenius formulae which was discovered before we even invented the vacuum cleaner.
Right now, even if we went carbon neutral today, the thermostat is set to +8c of total warming for the current GHG's and if our poisonous sulphur shield fails at any moment, we can add almost 2c more of incoming energy from the sun in months.
It is over.
Rockstrom is really quite clear on the carry capacity in just a 4c world.
Talk of cities is quite frankly, nuts.
Oh and the AMOC collapse which has been nose diving for the last 90 years will hit around the same time as the significant food shocks.. just in case we did not have enough problems to occupy us.
Do you not follow Hansen and Peter Carter and folks like that !? the climate models the IPCC are using, are using the wrong forcings and are invalid. Argue with Hansen about it, it is his work
1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2.
Cities are here though. Ultimately i think it's best to revolutionize cities than to throw your hands up and shrug.
@@trenomas1 I do not. I think we need to use the bones of this old world to build ourseleves some real sea defences. the oceans are going to rise a lot.
If we have any chance at all of saving numbers, then we need the land to stay.
We have literal billions of tons of carbon to put somewhere... why not build sea walls and work on an epic task of carbon to soil to fill those nation walls up with soil.
If we need to we can dredge oceans for more, it can only but help.
In the place of our existing construction technology, I would be using a combination of black glass and foam glass as the external building materials done in such a style that the external glass contains tubes in which we can pass refrigerants.
Foamglass is an exceptional form of insulation that is entirely renewable.
This particular combination will allow ALL of our buildings to take it upon themselves to convert all incoming light to heat and whisk it away to our underground thermal storage. From there we use cascading heat pumps to bring it up to useful temps and then convert it to electricity to power the copper based LED lights that are growing the food under our houses.
I am not one to 'put my hands up and shrug'
@@gigabane7357why not just grab all the black glass and foam glass and concentrate into one point making it basicly a sort solar powerplant and cover population center with white reflective shields, dont over complicate!
This guy needs to read up on coextinctions (Stronah and Bradshaw) and the insect apocalypse under way. Our ecosystem is not going to survive 3 Celsius.
Thanks for the reference.
Methane is releasing from frozen sources, shutting down the AMOC might be our saving grace to avoid a Permian style event. We have screwed the pooch.
The main question is.. Will that many people be able to move without inducing the purge response in already established native populations to the north? thats apart from the fact that any country that hasnt developed by now is pretty much doomed economicly and will stop developing or even go backwards due to this temperature issue
Good question. Sadly, the developed world is already shifting to an anti-immigant, extreme right-wing agenda. This will only worsen as climate change accelerates. A likely outcome is that the native populations will close their eyes to their militaristic government's increasingly brutal expulsions of immigrants and refugees. Systematic massacres will occur offshore and in the sparsely populated border regions. Any dissenters or non-conformists within the country will also face the same fate.
Going backwards could be the only way to make it through the coming bottleneck.
Where do you see that except Poland and Hungary ?@@AdrianJamesEllis
@@MACTEP_CHOB UK, Germany
@@MACTEP_CHOB Germany (AfD party), Italy (Georgia Meloni), USA (Trump), UK (Reform UK), Netherlands, France (National Front), Russia and, of course, Israel.
I'm sorry but the chart at 7:00 + has gone to be BS in regards to Australia, saying that inland Australia would become a suitable change zone can't be fact, its already unsuitable for large population centres due to lack of water and aridable land and, heat
You're probably right but to give the benefit of the doubt, maybe they know something we don't. I live in the Canadian Shield, known for lots of water and lots of rocks. Traditionally, people not from my area write it off for "poor soil quality." I can't speak for the entire Canadian Shield but our area has excellent soil, it's just the amount of rocks are a problem. We can grow more than we need for my family easily. But we have a short growing season and the rocks create a barrier to commercial farming that we're grateful for. Corporations leave us alone.
The other part is they're only just starting to map our water systems in my area. They have no idea how they're connected, it's never been studied. Our population density is about 4 square km per person, we're not exactly a priority. Any estimates of what is going to happen here is based on little to no data. Locals aren't reporting temperatures and the closest place reporting temperatures is an hour drive away.
Hell, the Canadian government barely tracks our volcanoes. There's such a huge amount of guesswork, sometimes, I just hope they know something I don't because as far as I can tell only really know what's happening in large urban centers and most of this country (land not people) isn't urban.
@@runningfromabear8354 yea mate I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one, theres a reason 90% of Australia's population lives along the coastline, the Australian centre is too harsh to support large permanent settlements/cities, a combination of high temperatures 9months of the year, low if not no annual rainfall, go on google maps satellite view and just look around the areas they highlighted as "new suitable zones" and see it's already sorched earth, imagine when the worlds 5*c hotter, Australia isn't comparable to Canada in this scenario, places that already get no rain and 40*c regularly every spring and summer aren't magically getting to liveable in a hot earth
@@davdav8709There are lots of unknowns. The chart is from a model based on average temperatures, local knowledge of detailed temperature patterns isn’t included, rainfall isn’t included. Not all of the Earth is predicted to get hotter, it’s the average that will get hotter. Hotter, also means more cloud cover in some regions, this will change inland weather patterns in the interior of some large land masses quite significantly.
@@jgreen9361 average temperatures are useless. Ever been in the desert? Blisteringly hot through the day, cold during the night. The average has nothing to do with the reality of the situation.
@@thedamnedatheist That was my point exactly. Reread my post.The global computer model does not know the temperature profile at any particular location. It doesn’t make an average “useless” either. The model’s purpose is not to give local location detail, that’s not what it is for. I am not sure if you just misread my post, posted in haste or are you confused about weather and climate?
It won't be 4 Billion migrants, CC will end most of us.
Within countries people head to warmer areas. Not to cooler areas.
PNAS= Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences.
Great video Ty
Yes, the collapse of the AMOC would definitely increase the departure zones and decrease the arrival zones, causing greater migration and conflict. 😕
For 2046 maybe.
My region is getting taken already, the natural resources in the area won't be able to sustain them though. I see trouble a comin
Seems hard to conjecture, given that heat distribution patterns are changing fundamentally, rather than being changed on just one parameter. It would be interesting if atmospheric circulation cells also had a propensity to change, as that would throw out every assumption. The only way to study something like that in the past is through study of identifiable volcanic ash drift.
Not mines
Kansas City is car dependent (for now) full of potholes, and crime ridden, at leas they are building more, but we should turn our stupid trafficways into pedestrian only roads.
We are all going to have to learn to get on with each other a whole lot better than we do today. People will be living in close proximity with migrants from other parts of the world, who I think will enrich each others lives.
It is going to be a rather dystopian future in some ways, but it might also be good in other ways.
Too to late !! 3-5 years. go home and be with family 😢
What??
@@keepitreal2902 we're done, humans will be extinct very soon
People have said this 5, 10,15, 20 years ago, this does not help us, we are in this for the long run bucko
@@lelagrangeeffectphysics4120maybe very few people may have said that, but now we have the data to seperate based prognosis from fearful prediction.
i am curious why you used the word "flood" to talk about human mouvement. This to me has an undertone of de-humanisation, and could lead to misrepresentation of personhood in many way, including how they will act during forcefull migration.
Reforestation....yeah right Greece is doing nothing about global warming, great video
Yeah we really need to build that wall more than ever now before shit hits the fan.
Canada here i come..😂
But Warren Buffet says he can't skim profit from the people on your system.
All was fine until I hear 20 km/hr while driving... may as well walk! (not a bad idea) ... who knows...in my city they are installing more and more cable cars... (the kind up in the air)... here in Mexico City, which go in strait lines more or less and avoid winding roads... that could be.
Walking speed is 4-5 km/h.
@@tandrasz You're right, but in any case we can always adjust the speed...here in Mexico City on regular city streets and avenues the maximun is 50 km/hr....it was established about 7 years ago... some complained but it is meant to avoid deaths due to people being run over... on side streets it's 40km/hr and 30 or 20 in school areas... my point is 20 km/hr is definately too slow to my liking. The other aspect is actually enforcing it which is a whole other story. City buses and taxis think they can break all the laws... also motor bikes are a big thing now and they like to squeeze between lanes... I could go on and on...
wow my house here in sweden will soon be worth 100 000 000 000 000 usd.
When that kind of crisis happen nobody cares about law people will take whatever they can by force including your house.😅
Australia probably. Our government is importing as many people as it can to boost GDP.
I wouldn’t worry about this. Apply the prisoner’s dilemma to the West/China’s pursuance of genetics based bio-weapons & you can see where this is all going.
It is inevitable
There is no way planting too many trees is or has been an issue. Forests are in decline and such warnings as you trumpet are, well, unnecessary..
You can think what you want as nothing you say will make a difference anyway. Interesting thumbnail and issue to discuss though.
I'm wanting to judge permaculture people and to figure out the difference between those who are and those who bait & switch. Maybe you can do a video in this. Perhaps a few books requiring reading should be on the list like Permaculture A Designers' Manual, and one or more of David Holmgren's work. The real permaculture people.
Trees are just like any living thing, there can be too much and there can be too little, some zones never had trees before and planting trees there would kill the local flora and fauna, the dose makes the medicine.
@@lelagrangeeffectphysics4120 My thoughts are humans have only very recently became involved in choosing what goes where. In the over the long term past of trees and forests could grow they would grow.
I even think it was some lucky circumstances that allowed climax forests to exist over large areas which produced this Goldilocks stable climate over the last 13,000 years or something. Now the forests are extremely reduced and the real extremes in the climate will be what dominates the future.
So its just me but I can't understand any highlighted negative qualities about trees.
@@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner Ehmmm thats kind of wrong, it was the growing desertification of the middle east which forced humans there to start civilization, humans dont start civilization (as in sedentary multi generational communities) if they dont have to, the americas where a sign of a lot it though not all.
Close the borders, build moats, giant walls, and place guards on the walls.
This is the real answer. I doubt the "everybody welcome" people are going to be so keen on it if there are food shortages and those extra people mean their own families are more likely to starve or face violence.
Earth remembers what was done for VCR’s, electric stoves, and TV’s. For the unopened collectible trophies of Star Wars and Barbie dolls.
Earth feels the attacks for the PlayStations, cellphones, EV’s, and solar panels. For our diesel engines, jet planes, and Halloween Costumes.
When the clock strikes 2.5°C, Earth will drown PlayStations with her tears.
When FedEx fails to deliver our packages due to washed out transport highways, Earth will not care that we are unable to give a one star review to Amazon due to internet being down.
And Earth will not hear our cries over her thunder as we shout, “but we wanted to create economic growth and prosperity!” When the clock strikes 2.5°C.
Whisper the words to 2.5°C on every Bday, anniversary, and baby shower. Wedding, Black Friday and Xmass season, as the fourth fiscal quarter closes.
_And then _*_Earth_*_ will say,…_
“Through your actions you have forced me to wash myself clean of you as I will now ascend my warmth to 6+ Celsius. For my sixth extinction is now sealed.
And it will be the extinction to end all extinctions.”
Or not.....
im so sworry we dont live in you celtic druid dreamworld sonny, pweople like to have nice things and have modern medicine which allows them to live long lives.... im so sworry c:
@@lelagrangeeffectphysics4120
We live in the same world. It is a finite world. Is it not?
@@ImproveYourMagicRecycling and Reuse exists, you can diss consumerism but solutions exist.
@@lelagrangeeffectphysics4120
Earths biosphere rejects your prayers and wishes. It’s ok to admit that the shopaholic society has fractured a planet’s biosphere. If there were a solution to our predicament, it would have been thought of by now.
"Nnnnnnnnnnnnope! We must create Fortress of Europe!"
Hate to break it to you bud but in a couple of years youll want to flee europe as well. Tf are you expecting? That the warming will all of a sudden stop at our borders? 😂
Flee where ? To Mars ? @@FrankWhite437
Joking aside, even the utopian loony left will move back to self-preservation mode if the food and water starts to run short.
The leftist ladies certainly won't like it when their cats start going missing to feed the hungry newcomers.
So, nothing much changes in Nothern Europe.
except they import most of their food from the red zones.
No, we dont bro. I know where my food comes from. Coffee, cacao and bananas aren`t really food. Besides, Russia exports grain to Africa, they cannot feed themselves even now.
@@guapochino140
Not here
We are too many. Without population control, all this will remain wishful thinking.
You can always start with yourself
@@MACTEP_CHOB I did. I have no children.
Yes thats the greatest thing we can do currently. But many still dont understand.
It will progress to sinking the boats in the sea, after a certain amount
joining Russian language course.
CRAP assumptions lol
One possibility is governments trying to handle 10's of millions of migrants might pass a law that each household has to provide housing to 6 people. So what do you do when they come knocking on your door wanting to bask in AC and be fed and provided with beds? You'll have to decide to obey the law or break it, but if you get taken away they'll occupy your house or apt. anyway.
Housing will be the least of your troubles in this era. Also air conditioning won't be available.
Wow. There are so many steps before anything like this is possible.
🤨🙄
I am in Western Australia, and migrants must be mad to come here, house prices are through the roof and the climate is drying out and heating up. Plus, there are the spiders, snakes and crocodiles etc that can kill you. This video is so boring.
The way for developed nations to solve climate migration:
Have a *very thorough* vetting process, rather than an open borders guilt complex.
Nobody is obligated to let a stranger into their house/company/territory/nation/etc.--especially not a stranger that shares nothing in common with them--not language, values, skin tone (empirically speaking, it matters), politics, tolerance, ethos, etc.
I'm pretty sure someone did a study (or multiple such studies) that shows people self-segregate when left to their own devices, and some areas of Europe (particularly France) becoming unsafe at night *because* of some such migrants should serve as a stark lesson about vetting one's entrants. Just as private firms have interview processes for prospective hires, so *too* should nations have vetting processes for prospective immigrants.
Popper's paradox of tolerance states that it is cruel to many people to tolerate the intolerable. We've already seen frictions aplenty with tolerating the absolutely wrong type of people (see: various parts of Europe, the stupidity happening at Columbia University, etc.)--no need to blow that up times a million.
It's not a warm and fuzzy takeaway for sure, but, the real world isn't always warm and fuzzy, and sometimes, protecting the people one is responsible for means turning away various out-groups.
@RNG-ts5gn it isn't addressing how to mitigate climate change--it's addressing its consequences--namely, what can developed nations do against the potential logistical threat posed by climate migration? To which my answer is: close the doors, and justification as to why.
But in the meantime, yes, there is *plenty* that can and should be done to also mitigate the effects of climate change. It's not one or the other. It's a "yes, AND".
@RNG-ts5gn if you're going to label me with something, how about "climate empiricist" or "climate logistician"? We see in NYC what a (relatively) small number of unexpected migrants has done. Logistics and empirical results do not care about ideology.
shutting out potentially millions of people at the border is as big of a security risk as dispersing them inside the borders.
@@Ilyak1986 but you're a nationalist. Why wouldn't they call you that?
@@TheHonestPeanut because it's a dismissive label, and basically an ad-hominem attack.
Move to Russia
Hahaha so much bs
pro immigration propaganda
They simply just left us dead scorched, that's highest probability 😅